First of all, there is a faceoff between Jeff Pasquino and me, Mark Wimer, debating the merits of expending an early draft pick on a QB and also the merits of the alternative  - employing a quarterback by committee composed of mid- to late-round picks.

 Clayton Gray employed his strength of schedule expertise to craft two articles looking at the best combinations of 2 QBs and 3 QBs in a committee, projecting the point totals for every combination worth considering at this season.

Chase Stuart takes a close look at some specific combinations of QBs that he recommends for those looking to draft a committee in start-1 QB and start-2 QBs leagues.

For those who are looking for a high-upside, low-draft-cost alternative at the QB position, Jeff Tefertiller has penned a look at how to identify sleepers at the QB position.  

Happy Drafting! It’s my favorite time of the year, and I bet it is yours, too!

Year	Player		Pos	Team	Pick	Games	 Sacks
2007	Jamaal Anderson	DE	atl	 8	16	 0.0
2007	Gaines Adams	DE	tam	 4	16	 6.0
2006	Ernie Sims	LB	det	 9	16	 0.5
2006	A.J. Hawk	LB	gnb	 5	16	 3.5
2006	Mario Williams	DE	htx	 1	16	 4.5
2003	Terrell Suggs	LB	rav	10	16	12.0
2002	Julius Peppers	DE	car	 2	12	12.0
2001	Justin Smith	DE	cin	 4	15	 8.5
2001	Jamal Reynolds	DE	gnb	10	 6	 2.0
2001	Richard Seymour	DE	nwe	 6	13	 3.0
2001	Andre Carter	DE	sfo	 7	15	 6.5
2000	LaVar Arrington	LB	was	 2	16	 4.0
2000	Courtney Brown	DE	cle	 1	16	 4.5
1999	Chris Claiborne	LB	det	 9	15	 1.5
1998	Andre Wadsworth	DE	crd	 3	16	 5.0
1998	Greg Ellis	DE	dal	 8	16	 3.0
1998	Grant Wistrom	DE	ram	 6	13	 3.0
1997	Peter Boulware	LB	rav	 4	16	11.5
1997	James Farrior	LB	nyj	 8	16	 1.5
1996	Kevin Hardy	LB	jax	 2	16	 5.5
1996	Simeon Rice	DE	crd	 3	16	12.5
1996	Cedric Jones	DE	nyg	 5	16	 0.0
						15	 5.0

Averaging out the projections of Footballguys.com IDP experts Aaron Rudnicki and John Norton, and Long is projected to have seven sacks, Gholston 4.5 sacks, and Harvey four sacks. That averages out to just a hair over 5 sacks per top ten rookie pass rusher, right in line with historical norms.

 ”It’s been an especially trying week for Smith. He disclosed that his closest friend, David Edwards, 24, committed suicide Sunday. Smith will miss today’s practice in order to attend a service for Edwards in the San Diego area. He’s scheduled to fly back to the Bay Area on Saturday in time for the game.

Edwards was a housemate at Smith’s home in Los Gatos for two years before moving back to San Diego last year. The two had been friends since they were 14, and Edwards often vacationed with the Smith family. The Friday service will be in the Smiths’ backyard in Bonita.

He was “really close with my family,” Smith said. “So it’s been difficult for everybody.” He said, “It will be good to go down and see his old friends and family.”

Smith found out about his friend’s death Sunday after practice. He admitted he’s had a hard time coping with the tragedy. He met with reporters Tuesday but didn’t mention it. On the practice field, the former starter has found himself playing second fiddle to O’Sullivan.”

Sincere condolences to Mr. Smith as he continues the grieving process over the loss of his close friend.

Clearly, this situation is a powerful distraction for Smith to fight through - it may help propel O’Sullivan into the #1 QB job and keep him there (at least to start the season).

”I really don’t,” offensive coordinator Ron Turner said when asked if he has a sense of who’s ahead.

Maybe Turner should have just said “I really don’t have a clue” and left it at that. How is it possible that the Bears’ offensive coaches could watch 3 weeks worth of practice sessions and still NOT make a determination who will lead the offense? If both players in question are so pathetic, why haven’t the Bears taken steps to bring in a third contender?

It really defies explanation, in my opinion. However, taking a look at the behavior of this organization over the last 20 years (using the Footballguys.com Data Dominator ) tells us that this current situation is really just par for the course up in Chicago. Guess how many times QBs have been swapped in and out of the Bears’ lineup over the past 20 years (1988-2007)? 30? 40? Nope.

During the past 20 years, the Bears have switched/substituted one QB for another 58 times. An average of ~3 different QBs under center each year for the past 20 years! And we’re not talking about a few snaps for the backup in mop-up duty here and there, folks. During the current decade, 24 switches at QB been made by the Bears, with only 3 QBs playing close to a full slate of games in any given year (Jim Miller played in 15 games back in 2001; Orton managed 15 back in 2005; and Grossman  appeared in a full slate of 16 games during the 2006 Super Bowl season). Of all the pass attempts thrown during this decade (4078), Grossman has tossed 900 in his time on the field during regular season (~22%); while Orton has lobbed 447 (~11%).

For comparison’s sake, during the same time span the Colts have sent in their backup QBs for snaps during 6 seasons, for a total of 186 pass attempts (out of 4436 passes attempted by Indianapolis, ~96% of them thrown by Peyton Manning).  

No wonder Muhsin Muhammad recently told SI’s Peter King “That’s right. It’s where receivers go to die.”

In other words, time is growing very short for Jackson to get into synch with his team mates. Another concern is related to “football shape” - the peak of conditioning that players acquire when they participate in a full training camp isn’t generated through individual workouts, according to many experienced voices from around the NFL. As former Rams’ coach Dick Vermeil puts it:

“Oh yeah, it’ll take him a few weeks. I don’t know what they’ll do. But I would bet they’ll temper his play early, and he won’t be a 30-carry guy on opening day — if he’s back by then…

“Carl Peterson did a study for the Kansas City Chiefs,” Vermeil said. “He’s one of the most experienced presidents-general managers in the National Football League. He’s been there since 1989, and he’s done studies as to holdouts. Not only in Kansas City, but all through the league. He says there’s a much higher correlation or a chance of getting injured after holding out, regardless of position.”

Current head coach Scott Linehan doesn’t agree with Vermeil on the possible consequences of Jackson’s holdout, stating:

“We had a lot of injuries last year and we had everybody in camp. A lot of that’s (bad) luck in a lot of ways. I think as long as (Jackson’s) training and we do a good job of training him, getting him ready. …To be honest with you, that really isn’t a concern.”

The current head coach’s opinion about Jackson’s ability to handle a full work load is the one that counts the most, obviously. He’s the guy who’ll decide how often to call Jackson’s number.

However, if Jackson isn’t around to take the field, Linehan’s opinions about “football shape” won’t matter. Fantasy owners everywhere are wondering how much longer the holdout will last - unfortunately, there doesn’t appear to be a deal in sight as of Wednesday. We’ll see if the end of two-a-days thaws Jackson to the idea of coming into camp and getting his deal finalized…Stay tuned.

• The Martz Effect, Part I by Jeff Tefertiller
• The Martz Effect, Part II by Jeff Tefertiller

Those articles prompted a discussion in our forums, as member baconisgood questioned whether the 49ers situation is at all comparable to what Martz had to work with in St. Louis and Detroit.

To summarize his counterargument, he points out that the Rams had two Hall of Fame caliber WRs, an MVP running back (remember Faulk was already a proven commodity as a Colt), and a surprise QB who turned out to be among the league’s elite. A debate rages within the forum thread on how much credit Martz deserves for the careers of the Rams stars, and whether the 49ers situation is analogous to what Martz inherited in Detroit two seasons ago.

Where do I stand on this argument? Frankly, I have serious doubts about whether Martz can be successful this year. Not necessarily because he isn’t a talented offensive mind. I genuinely believe Martz can find a QB out of the trio that can run his system. And I believe the offensive skill players (Frank Gore, DeShaun Foster, Vernon Davis, Bryant Johnson, Arnaz Battle, Isaac Bruce) are talented enough collectively to run his system.  My doubts stem from Martz’ inability/unwillingness to protect his quarterback.

Here are the sacks allowed tallies for each of Mike Martz’ offenses (defined as a team he was either the OC or head coach for):

• 1999 (Rams OC) — 33 sacks
• 2000 (Rams HC) — 44 sacks
• 2001 (Rams HC) — 40 sacks
• 2002 (Rams HC) — 46 sacks
• 2003 (Rams HC) — 43 sacks
• 2004 (Rams HC) — 50 sacks
• 2005 (Rams HC) — 46 sacks
• 2006 (Lions OC) — 63 sacks
• 2007 (Lions OC) — 54 sacks

Now he’s inheriting an offense that allowed 55 sacks last year WITHOUT playing the spread Martz attack.

I just can’t see how the 49ers keep their QBs from absolutely being demolished all season long. I hope I’m wrong, because that will create some compelling fantasy value options among Rams receivers. But somehow I suspect this is going to be a season when Mike Martz’ star fades even further.

“Naturally, it’s a whole new world for the wide receivers, but it also has created an added strain for the defensive backs - and that’s a good thing in training camp. It should help them in the early part of the season, when they face strong-armed passers Tom Brady and Carson Palmer.

“He has the innate ability to look one way and still know how to go the other way and get the ball there in time,” safety Kerry Rhodes said of Favre. “A lot of quarterbacks can’t go from this side to that side, and still fit the ball in. He’s one of the guys that can. He keeps you honest. You can’t really cheat.”…

“It comes real, real, real fast,” Rhodes said. “It seems like 100 mph.”

Said wide receiver Jerricho Cotchery: “Every route on the field is available.”

Given the modest expectations that almost everyone has for the Jets’ defense (they are currently 21st on the FBG’s consensus rankings of defense/special teams), the elevated level of practices with Favre in the fold could lead the Jets to outperform their modest expectations/draft slot - the Jets are being selected after 20 (minimum) other D/ST are off the board. If you are approaching the draft with a plan of rotating a slate of defenses during 2008, the Jets could be a team worth considering as part of a 3-team platoon at the position.

An excellent take on the idea of utilizing a defensive team by committee is offered by Footballguys’ own Chase Stuart, whose perennial subscribers’-favorite article ”Defensive Team by Committee” was released today, August 12th. I commend it to your attention before heading into your fantasy draft this season.  

• Player A catches a swing pass at the line of scrimmage, and runs for 8 yards — The player would have an 8-yard reception and YAC of 8, as well
• Player B catches an inside slant for 12 yards, but gets past the defensive back and rumbles for another 15 — The player would be credited with a 27-yard reception, and 15 yards after contact (YAC)

Pretty straightforward right? YAC is ultimately a measure of what a player can do with the ball in their hands. For that reason, it shouldn’t surprise you that some of the league’s top YAC producers aren’t wide receivers, but rather running backs.

Here is a quick look at last year’s YAC leaders:

While that’s an interesting measure, it doesn’t really speak to which players are the most effective with the ball in their hands. To measure that, you need to normalize the data by looking at YAC per Reception. If Player A generates 300 YAC in 30 receptions, that’s a much more explosive open field display than someone who has 500 YAC in 100 receptions.

Without further ado, here are the top 50 players, sorted by YAC per reception (2007)

The top 13 YAC producers (per catch) are RBs, and 16 of the top 20 spots are held by runners. I’ve bolded all the non-RB contributors to this list. Some interesting food for thought. In a day or two, we’ll take a look at whether YAC or YACperReception are helpful predictors of future fantasy performance.

Some of these players posted impressive numbers - for example, last year’s disappointment in New Orleans, Robert Meachem, helped the Saints best the Cardinals 24-10. Meachem grabbed 4/129/1 during the game, including a 60-yard scoring strike from Tyler Palko at 10:36 in the 4th quarter. The former 1st round draft pick showed us why the Saints invested a high selection in him during the 2007 draft.

However, it is important to remember why Meachem is racking up such big numbers in the first preseason game. Marques Colston and Devery Henderson were both sidelined for this contest due to injury, and #2 WR David Patten only saw the field for a handful of plays before sitting out the rest of the contest. Drew Brees tossed a mere 6/7 for 40 yards and a TD before grabbing a seat on the bench.

The rest of the game (during which Meachem posted the lion’s share of his impressive statistics) was all about evaluating 2nd, 3rd and 4th-string players to determine who advances deeper into preseason training camp and who gets cut in the first round of roster trimming.

Meachem blew up for big numbers - he should  rack up big numbers given he has a first-round draft selection’s talent - playing against defenders who have a marginal shot at sticking with the Cardinals. While it was a good showing by Meachem (who is expected by many observers to be the #3 WR for the Saints when the season opens), don’t get over-excited and leapfrog him up your draft board - at least, not yet.

Playing well in a preseason week 1 game won’t hurt any given player’s 2008 outlook, but it is very far from a “preview” of what any particular guy is likely to do once the games count. About the only thing we can say for Meachem (or any of the other standouts from yesterday’s contests) as of today is “So far, so good“. That isn’t nothing, but it doesn’t mean a whole lot just yet, either.   

Andy Herron sparked a discussion in our Shark Pool about whether we should be concerned about the home field conditions as we try to project Favre’s fantasy output this year.

So how has Favre performed as a visitor to Giants Stadium?

While I wouldn’t read too much into these numbers, they should put to rest any undue criticism that Favre will somehow struggle because of the conditions at Giants Stadium. He may need time to adjust to a new offense, new surroundings, new teammates. But he won’t have trouble adjusting to the conditions.

Just for fun, here is what a 16-game season would look like if we took Favre’s career averages at Giants stadium and projected them over a year’s worth of games:

• 346 completions
• 570 attempts
• 60.7% rate
• 4,221 yards
• 7.4 yards per attempt
• 26 TD passes
• 16 INTs

Again, don’t take this as any kind of predictive measure of how his 2008 season will turn out. But do recognize that he’ll be able to put up numbers in his new home digs, provided he adjusts to the new offense.