About a month ago, I alerted readers to the bad attitude that Anquan Boldin arrived to training camp projecting - he was slagging the organization whenever the opportunity presented itself.

 Well, as the team has not caved into Boldin’s contract demands (he wants to be paid as well as (or better than) Larry Fitzgerald - a $10-million a year contract), Boldin has gotten even more vocal about his anger with the front office. In fact, he has started calling for a trade to another team - just about any other team, it appears:

This past Monday and Tuesday, Boldin called team officials “liars” and blasted head coach Ken Whisenhunt for attempting to get involved in the contract situation:

Coaching and negotiating should be “completely separated,” Boldin said. “I think that’s why we have a department that deals with that.”

Regardless of who is in the right (Boldin and agent Drew Rosenhaus or the Cardinals’ management, take your pick), this ugly situation is impacting Boldin’s focus on football. In addition, he missed a significant chunk of training camp due to a hamstring injury (brought on in part due to lack of conditioning, which resulted from skipping OTAs during the opening stages of this contract dispute - see the vicious cycle developing?).

Now, the question for fantasy owners is this: how much do we think Boldin’s lack of focus and disgruntled attitude is going to degrade his performance on the field this year? At what point in the draft does he become worth the additional downside risk caused by the contract dispute?

The answer to the above questions may mean that you pass on Boldin during your upcoming drafts, or that you view him as a great bargain due to him dropping down draft boards in light of the ongoing argument.

You make the call. Happy Drafting! 

The QB position in Chicago has been a horrid mess for many years, but the ridiculousness (ridiculousity? ridicule-deserving-idiocy?) seems to have reached new heights as of the 2008 training camp. After 23 days of training camp (with one to go), OC Ron Turner had this to say yesterday of his assessment about who leads the contest between Rex Grossman and Kyle Orton:

”I really don’t,” offensive coordinator Ron Turner said when asked if he has a sense of who’s ahead.

Maybe Turner should have just said “I really don’t have a clue” and left it at that. How is it possible that the Bears’ offensive coaches could watch 3 weeks worth of practice sessions and still NOT make a determination who will lead the offense? If both players in question are so pathetic, why haven’t the Bears taken steps to bring in a third contender?

It really defies explanation, in my opinion. However, taking a look at the behavior of this organization over the last 20 years (using the Footballguys.com Data Dominator ) tells us that this current situation is really just par for the course up in Chicago. Guess how many times QBs have been swapped in and out of the Bears’ lineup over the past 20 years (1988-2007)? 30? 40? Nope.

During the past 20 years, the Bears have switched/substituted one QB for another 58 times. An average of ~3 different QBs under center each year for the past 20 years! And we’re not talking about a few snaps for the backup in mop-up duty here and there, folks. During the current decade, 24 switches at QB been made by the Bears, with only 3 QBs playing close to a full slate of games in any given year (Jim Miller played in 15 games back in 2001; Orton managed 15 back in 2005; and Grossman  appeared in a full slate of 16 games during the 2006 Super Bowl season). Of all the pass attempts thrown during this decade (4078), Grossman has tossed 900 in his time on the field during regular season (~22%); while Orton has lobbed 447 (~11%).

For comparison’s sake, during the same time span the Colts have sent in their backup QBs for snaps during 6 seasons, for a total of 186 pass attempts (out of 4436 passes attempted by Indianapolis, ~96% of them thrown by Peyton Manning).  

No wonder Muhsin Muhammad recently told SI’s Peter King “That’s right. It’s where receivers go to die.”

As a new article about the glacial pace of negotiations between Steven Jackson and the Rams points out today, Jackson’s tab for his 20-day holdout now stands at $303,320.00 and counting (20 x $15,166.00 per day). However, the cost of his holdout isn’t limited to his wallet. Two-a-days ended on Tuesday, and there will be only about 12 more practices between Thursday the 14th and the season opener at Philadelphia.

In other words, time is growing very short for Jackson to get into synch with his team mates. Another concern is related to “football shape” - the peak of conditioning that players acquire when they participate in a full training camp isn’t generated through individual workouts, according to many experienced voices from around the NFL. As former Rams’ coach Dick Vermeil puts it:

“Oh yeah, it’ll take him a few weeks. I don’t know what they’ll do. But I would bet they’ll temper his play early, and he won’t be a 30-carry guy on opening day — if he’s back by then…

“Carl Peterson did a study for the Kansas City Chiefs,” Vermeil said. “He’s one of the most experienced presidents-general managers in the National Football League. He’s been there since 1989, and he’s done studies as to holdouts. Not only in Kansas City, but all through the league. He says there’s a much higher correlation or a chance of getting injured after holding out, regardless of position.”

Current head coach Scott Linehan doesn’t agree with Vermeil on the possible consequences of Jackson’s holdout, stating:

“We had a lot of injuries last year and we had everybody in camp. A lot of that’s (bad) luck in a lot of ways. I think as long as (Jackson’s) training and we do a good job of training him, getting him ready. …To be honest with you, that really isn’t a concern.”

The current head coach’s opinion about Jackson’s ability to handle a full work load is the one that counts the most, obviously. He’s the guy who’ll decide how often to call Jackson’s number.

However, if Jackson isn’t around to take the field, Linehan’s opinions about “football shape” won’t matter. Fantasy owners everywhere are wondering how much longer the holdout will last - unfortunately, there doesn’t appear to be a deal in sight as of Wednesday. We’ll see if the end of two-a-days thaws Jackson to the idea of coming into camp and getting his deal finalized…Stay tuned.

Evidently, practicing against Brett Favre is stretching the Jets’ defensive backs (and wide receivers) in many new ways.

“Naturally, it’s a whole new world for the wide receivers, but it also has created an added strain for the defensive backs - and that’s a good thing in training camp. It should help them in the early part of the season, when they face strong-armed passers Tom Brady and Carson Palmer.

“He has the innate ability to look one way and still know how to go the other way and get the ball there in time,” safety Kerry Rhodes said of Favre. “A lot of quarterbacks can’t go from this side to that side, and still fit the ball in. He’s one of the guys that can. He keeps you honest. You can’t really cheat.”…

“It comes real, real, real fast,” Rhodes said. “It seems like 100 mph.”

Said wide receiver Jerricho Cotchery: “Every route on the field is available.”

Given the modest expectations that almost everyone has for the Jets’ defense (they are currently 21st on the FBG’s consensus rankings of defense/special teams), the elevated level of practices with Favre in the fold could lead the Jets to outperform their modest expectations/draft slot - the Jets are being selected after 20 (minimum) other D/ST are off the board. If you are approaching the draft with a plan of rotating a slate of defenses during 2008, the Jets could be a team worth considering as part of a 3-team platoon at the position.

An excellent take on the idea of utilizing a defensive team by committee is offered by Footballguys’ own Chase Stuart, whose perennial subscribers’-favorite article ”Defensive Team by Committee” was released today, August 12th. I commend it to your attention before heading into your fantasy draft this season.  

5 Preseason games went into the history books last night, with various NFL hopefuls strutting their stuff in an attempt to earn playing time during regular season.

Some of these players posted impressive numbers - for example, last year’s disappointment in New Orleans, Robert Meachem, helped the Saints best the Cardinals 24-10. Meachem grabbed 4/129/1 during the game, including a 60-yard scoring strike from Tyler Palko at 10:36 in the 4th quarter. The former 1st round draft pick showed us why the Saints invested a high selection in him during the 2007 draft.

However, it is important to remember why Meachem is racking up such big numbers in the first preseason game. Marques Colston and Devery Henderson were both sidelined for this contest due to injury, and #2 WR David Patten only saw the field for a handful of plays before sitting out the rest of the contest. Drew Brees tossed a mere 6/7 for 40 yards and a TD before grabbing a seat on the bench.

The rest of the game (during which Meachem posted the lion’s share of his impressive statistics) was all about evaluating 2nd, 3rd and 4th-string players to determine who advances deeper into preseason training camp and who gets cut in the first round of roster trimming.

Meachem blew up for big numbers - he should  rack up big numbers given he has a first-round draft selection’s talent - playing against defenders who have a marginal shot at sticking with the Cardinals. While it was a good showing by Meachem (who is expected by many observers to be the #3 WR for the Saints when the season opens), don’t get over-excited and leapfrog him up your draft board - at least, not yet.

Playing well in a preseason week 1 game won’t hurt any given player’s 2008 outlook, but it is very far from a “preview” of what any particular guy is likely to do once the games count. About the only thing we can say for Meachem (or any of the other standouts from yesterday’s contests) as of today is “So far, so good“. That isn’t nothing, but it doesn’t mean a whole lot just yet, either.   

With the news that Brett Favre has been traded to the New York Jets, the Footballguys.com message board is lit up like a Christmas tree with lots of speculation on the outcome of the move. One thread on the Footballguys.com message board is polling opinions asking how much improvement will the Jets show with Favre on the team?

Posters are speculating on Favre’s year-end ranking among all fantasy QBs in another thread, and in another analysis is ongoing about how Favre’s presence impacts the New York Jets’ defensive performance. Other discussions are ongoing about the impact of Favre’s presence on RB Thomas Jones’ performance/ranking.

 Also, as the news about Favre’s move has percolated through the Footballguys.com QB rankings, many QB ranking boards have been revised as of today to reflect Favre’s presence in New York. Check out the constantly-updated expert rankings HERE!

 The NFL preseason is rushing along like Adrian Peterson with a head of steam up, and now is the time to get in the discussion! Check out all the NFL talk and Favre chatter in the Footballguys.com fantasy football message board community, The Shark Pool!

ESPN.com’s Matt Mosley reported on Monday that Steve Smith could be on his way out of Carolina, stating:

“There have been rumblings out of Panthers camp that club officials are fed up with Smith’s actions (not just the latest incident) and are at least considering the idea of dealing him to another team.

The idea of trading one of the best receivers in football seems far-fetched, but Smith has become a divisive force on the team. One Panthers source said that several defensive backs were walking around after the recent incident saying that if management didn’t discipline Smith, they would. This isn’t exactly the best way to begin a season.

All that to say that I know an owner in the NFC East who has spent the last four months coveting another star wide receiver. Cowboys owner Jerry Jones struckout with Chad Johnson, the Lions’ Roy Williams and Anquan Boldin, but behind closed doors, he’s still pining away for someone to play opposite Terrell Owens.”

  It would take a blockbuster deal to move Smith, obviously, but if this were to happen the fantasy implications are profound.

• Muhsin Muhammad would immediately skyrocket up draft boards, as would D.J. Hackett
• Smith would return to the elite ranks of WRs as a top fantasy prospect (would the Cowboys be bound to enforce Carolina’s 2 game suspension? Probably not…)
• Patrick Crayton’s fantasy value would drop off the map if the ‘Boys went with a starting tandem of Owens/Smith

At this point, the scenario described by Mosley remains a distant possibility - but if you are drafting in the next few days, bump Muhsin Muhammad up a tad on your draft list just on the off-hand chance he could be Carolina’s #1 wide receiver this year - he was pretty good the last time Jake Delhomme had to lean on Muhammad (93/1405/16 - #1 fantasy WR during 2004). While it would be wildly optimistic to expect a #1 fantasy season from Muhammad during 2008, a top 10 appearance wouldn’t be outside possibility if Smith were to leave town.  

Let’s face it, the Packers are enduring a miserable launch to their 2008 season.

First, the team/fans have to endure the on-again, off-again, on-again Brett Favre saga (currently, the team has compromised with Favre to try and facilitate a trade elsewhere if he’ll stay away from training camp). Nobody on the squad is benefitting from the ongoing distraction(s) created by this situation.

Also ongoing is the acrimony between last year’s surprise star RB, Ryan Grant, and the team. Grant and his agent Alan Herman termed the team’s contract offer “insulting”, with Herman elaborating “I can’t believe after 5 1/2 months, after the Packers said to us that this was a unique situation, that the Packers take care of their own, that we would get in a situation as unreasonable as this. I’ve never seen anything like that in my 24 years in the business.” Describing Grant’s reaction to the offer (a $1.75 million signing bonus on a 6-year extension, other details unspecified) “He was as mad as I’ve ever heard him. He’s really angry.” The Packers retain Grant’s rights as they made him the minimum tender offer of $370,000. However, he isn’t under contract and can’t be fined for missing training camp - a set of circumstances that may lead to a stand-off type of impasse.

Green Bay opens camp today, with media attention on the Favre drama at a frenzy. Ted Thompson hopes that the team can find its focus, stating on Sunday “It’ll be a little hectic probably tomorrow…But football is football and football players are football players. We have a lot of faith in these guys. I think Mike (McCarthy) handles the team very well.”

Color me skeptical on this front - there have to be many on this team who believe (as many others outside Green Bay do) that the Pack has the best chance to win a championship with Favre under center (and with Grant in the RB stable). How hard will it be for the coaching staff to convince this team that they are gunning for the playoffs when the front office’s attitude and moves seem to indicate otherwise?

From a fantasy football perspective, if the team struggles to find focus, a flat start to 2008 could lead to a general depression of the offense. Team chemistry is an elusive quality, and right now the chaos surrounding the Packers’ training camp will have an adverse effect on team morale.

One thing is for certain - I wouldn’t want to be in Mike McCarthy’s shoes right now…

A new perspective on the Jeremy Shockey trade was published in the New York Post (article by Paul Schwartz) on Thursday, suggesting that Shockey was suffering from some sort of mental breakdown prior to his exit from the team.

What became painfully evident to the team is that Shockey - always high-maintenance - had gone off the deep end, imagining conspiracies and persecution that never existed. Despite his incessant grumblings, all concerned believed the relationship could and would be repaired. Then Shockey, coming off leg and ankle surgery, showed up at the mid-June veteran mini-camp and his bizarre actions and ranting convinced the organization that he had to go.

Teammates who once enjoyed - or at least tolerated - Shockey’s edgy persona because they respected his work ethic and talent came to realize he was losing touch with reality. He accused players of leaking private information about him to the media, he got into a verbal confrontation with GM Jerry Reese and showed little regard for the urgings of Coughlin to at least make an appearance on the practice field along with the other injured players.

While it is possible that the team is simply trying to defend their decision to trade Shockey by smearing him in the press, the altercation with GM Jerry Reese was widely reported at the time of the confrontation, and it is a fact that Shockey refused to attend practices while physically present at the Giants facility.

We’ll see how Shockey behaves/integrates with his new team mates in New Orleans, but keep the above tidbit in mind while you work on your draft list at TE. Some of the behavior described in the article sounds quite ominous regarding Shockey’s mental health. As we saw with Ricky Williams during his years in New Orleans, mental problems can adversely affect a player’s ability to function within the high-pressure environment that is the NFL.

If he is losing his grip on reality, Shockey would definitely be a riskier pick at TE than other, more stable individuals - time will tell if he is really “going off the deep end” or if Shockey was simply working to speed his exit from New York. In fantasy circles, it is better to be forewarned rather than ignorant - forewarned is forearmed. Consider yourself warned…

The NFL is amping up training camps and that means fantasy football is right around the corner. The Chicago Bears were one of the first teams to open camp this year and, as you probably know, they are embarking on a good, old-fashioned QB duel this summer between Rex Grossman (who re-signed a one year deal) and Kyle Orton (2-year deal).

While competition is a good thing, particularly for a team that’s struggled to find a consistent signal caller, I couldn’t help but cringe at the following news blurb in the Chicago Tribune (by Vaughn McClure):

Also, Rex Grossman has won the starting quarterback job — for the first day of practice. There was a coin toss at a Wednesday morning quarterback meeting. Kyle Orton called it, but Grossman won it and will run with the first-team offense Wednesday.

A coin toss? Really?

I understand it’s symbolic and no more important than determining who gets “first dibs” on Day One (I’m presuming Orton will start today’s practices off and they’ll alternate from there), but still I think Lovie Smith has to be careful about what kind of symbolism he’s perpetuating.

How many NFL pundits not to mention Bears fans already feel like neither Grossman nor Orton are the answer?