Michael Turner has been a difference maker for his fantasy owners this season, with 59/366/5 rushing and 2/12/0 receiving to date - he is the best fantasy running back in the NFL entering week 4 (not LaDainian Tomlinson, his old team mate, who has battled a turf toe injury opening the season). Last week, the Falcons blasted Kansas City for 36/186/3 - Turner got all 3 TDs with 23/104/3, while Jerious Norwood threw in a huge assist with 11/75/0 rushing and 1/30/0 receiving - both backs broke through the 100+ yards combined barrier. Norwood has cranked out 31/186/1 rushing and 4/44/0 receiving over 3 games, landing at #30 among all fantasy backs - not too shabby for a part-time player. The Falcons are #1 in the NFL averaging 5.7 yards per carry entering week 4 (pretty outstanding run blocking from the guys up front in Atlanta) - they have arguably the most powerful running game in the land right now. Atlanta leads the league in rushing yardage, and has 124 more yards rushing than #4 Minnesota right now, (609 vs. 485), staking Turner and Norwood’s claim to be the best running back tandem in the NFL (sorry Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor).

As Joe Bryant is fond of saying - pay attention around here - things move fast: this year, that is especially true of the Atlanta Falcon’s RB stable.

Hello, Monday! Finally, we are back to that time of year when we actually anticipate Mondays (well, at least Monday night - for Monday Night Football!).

 Tonight we’ll get a special treat from the NFL - 2 divisional rivalries, renewed first in the Hallowed Ground at Lambeau Field - and then we’ll watch along with all the crazed Raider fans in the Black Hole at McAfee Coliseum. Happy Times are Here Again!

For fantasy enthusiasts, there are several important story lines to follow in each matchup. In the 7 PM ET game, Minnesota at Green Bay, we’ll get to see:

• How well Aaron Rodgers plays in a full-speed, 60-minute NFL contest
• Whether Ryan Grants’ hamstring is a worrisome issue or not
• If Tarvaris Jackson has actually improved over last year
• If Bernard Berrian can bring respectability to the WR corps in Minnesota
• How scary Adrian Peterson looks in his sophomore season in the NFL

During the nightcap game in Oakland, we’ll start to find out:

• If JaMarcus Russell can make a silk purse out of the sow’s ear lineup of WRs in Oakland
• Whether Darren McFadden is a fantasy stud or a fantasy bust
• How the Raiders will parse out carries between Justin Fargas, McFadden and Michael Bush
• If Zach Miller is the “next” Antonio Gates
• If Jay Cutler can win a game without Brandon Marshall
• Who is the legitimate #2 WR on Denver’s roster behind Marshall
• If Selvin Young can flourish as a featured back
• If Andre Hall will grind out TDs for his owners from goal line situations this season (or not)
• If Tony Scheffler is the “next” Antonio Gates

All the drafts are over, all the trash talk from draft day is in the books - after tonight, some of us will be 1-0 and on our way to a trophy, some will be 0-1 and on the way to a crying towel - and a few will limp across the finish line in week 1 with a tie.

Get ready to lay out the smack talk on Tuesday - will your team get what it needs Monday night, or will you watch your rival blow past your guys at the last minute? It’s must see T.V., fantasy fanatics! Enjoy!

Wow, sometimes I just don’t get it. The Minnesota Vikings acquire DE Jared Allen from the Kansas City Chiefs and sign him to a new contract, and I see hosts of people on radio, TV and internet message boards saying that the Vikings OVERPAID. While I can see, on the surface, why some people may have that initial reaction, I frankly think it’s conventional thinking and, with just a little analysis, people will come to realize that this move was nothing short of a NO-BRAINER for the Vikings.

First, let’s get the terms of the trade out of the way:

Vikings Get:

• DE Jared Allen
• 6th round pick (6.21 — 187th overall)

Chiefs Get:

• 1st round pick (1.17 — 17th overall)
• 3rd round pick (3.10 — 73rd overall)
• 3rd round pick (3.19 — 82nd overall)
• 6th round pick (6.16 — 182nd overall)

In conjunction with the trade, the Vikings gave Allen a new 6-year contract worth up to $74mm with incentives. The deal includes $31mm in guarantees; and puts Allen among the league’s highest paid defenders.

For those who might not realize, the 2007 Minnesota Vikings were the first team in NFL history to lead the league in both rushing offense and defense yet miss the playoffs. This team isn’t in rebuilding mode, it’s a team that could easily compete for a top seed in the NFC playoffs, particularly with the retirement of Brett Favre; the NFC North is wide open for the Vikes’ taking.

For the naysayers, let me offer you not one but two perspectives on why this deal made a ton of sense for Minnesota:

Approach #1: The Peer Group Comparison

Let’s say you turned on Sportscenter and read that the Vikings acquired Julius Peppers from the Panthers instead. Better yet, let’s say they acquired Dwight Freeney for the same draft compensation from Indianapolis. How many NFL pundits and fans would be singing the Vikings praises then? Yet, here’s the thing…Jared Allen is AS GOOD IF NOT BETTER than either Peppers or Freeney.

• Julius Peppers — 28 years old, 90 games played, 56 sacks, 31 passes defensed, 288 tackles
• Dwight Freeney — 28 years old, 88 games played, 60 sacks, 11 passes defensed, 190 tackles
• Jared Allen — 26 years old, 61 games played, 43 sacks, 25 passes defense, 227 tackles

Allen is:

• Two years younger
• Healthier
• Averaged more sacks per game (0.70 vs. 0.68 & 0.62)
• Averaged more passes defensed per game (0.41 vs. 0.13 & 0.34)
• Averaged more tackles per game (3.72 vs. 2.16 & 3.20)

Approach #2: The Draft Value Chart Comparison

By now everyone knows that most NFL teams utilize a derivative of the same draft trade chart that was first popularized by Jimmy Johnson back in his Cowboys coaching days. This is the tried and true chart teams use to evaluate trading up or down on draft day. The chart assigns a point value to each pick and declines with each successive pick.

According to the most common version of the trade chart, the value of the picks KC received was:

• 17th = 950 points
• 73rd = 225 points
• 82nd = 180 points
• 182nd = 18.6 points
• TOTAL = 1,373.6 points

In order for most GMs to make this trade, they have to feel they’re getting back equivalent or better value. The value of the 6th round pick the Vikes acquired = 16.6 points, which means:

• 187th = 16.6 points
• DIFFERENTIAL = 1,357 points

In order for the deal to make sense, Jared Allen should be “worth” at least 1,357 points on the draft chart. According to the draft chart:

• 9th overall = 1,350 points
• 8th overall = 1,400 points

Does ANYONE want to argue that Jared Allen isn’t worth the 8th or 9th overall pick in this year’s draft? You’re getting a 26 year old proven ELITE defensive end. Frankly, if we’re being intellectually honest, Jared Allen would be the 1st overall pick WITHOUT QUESTION if he were draft eligible this year. He’s a proven commodity at an elite position. Yet, all the Vikings really need out of him is the value of the 8th or 9th pick in the draft.

Let’s not mince words. Barring injury, this deal was a LAYUP for the Vikings. Keep in mind what Jared Allen has accomplished and then consider who his defensive linemates were in Kansas City. Now, he gets to line up alongside Kevin and Pat Williams; the best 4-3 tackles in the NFC. The Vikes added the league’s best young defensive end to a defense that already led the league in rushing defense. Even if their pass offense continues to struggle this season, the combination of a stifling defense and the NFC’s top rushing offense should give them as easy a road to the playoffs as any team in the NFC.

Congrats to the Vikings fans; as an Eagles season ticket holder I’m jealous.

Before the start of free agency, Bernard Berrian indicated he wanted a contract similar to the 6-year, $36mm deal Deion Branch received from the Seattle Seahawks a season ago. While few questioned whether Berrian was a coveted free agent (he’s the #2 WR on most boards, behind Randy Moss), a lot of folks questioned whether Berrian would and should be paid as one of the elite at the position.

As I’ve been saying for weeks now, the market dictates the price as much as the talent does. We’ve seen free agents land monster deals at every position, and it’s more about the rising salary cap (estimated $116mm) and team’s projected cap room (more than at any point in league history) than it is about saying these free agents are the best in the league.

Regardless of whether you think Berrian is worth top-10 money, he stood a very good chance at landing that kind of contract this offseason.

And so he has…The Minnesota Vikings have signed Berrian to a 6-year, $42mm deal with $16mm guaranteed. That may seem like big coin for a guy that’s never had 1,000-yard season, but the Vikings are hoping Berrian is on the cusp of greatness and will leverage his deep speed to take the pressure off QB Tarvaris Jackson as well as the two-headed running attack of Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor.

How much will Berrian help the Vikings passing attack?

Without looking up the stats, I bet a lot of you would assume the Bears passing attack was almost as bad as the Vikings last year, right? Now go look at the stats:

• Passing Yards — 3,362 Bears vs. 2,745 Vikings
• Attempts — 569 Bears vs. 432 Vikings
• Completions — 327 Bears vs. 249 Vikings
• Completion Percentage — 57.5% Bears vs. 57.6% Vikings
• Yards per Attempt — 5.9 Bears vs. 6.4 Vikings
• Passing TDs — 18 Bears vs. 12 Vikings
• TDs conversion percentage — 3.2% Bears vs. 2.7% Vikings

If these numbers look ugly, they are. But that’s not the key takeaway. The key takeaway is that the Vikings numbers make the Bears look like the Greatest Show on Turf. For all of the Bears ineptitude and the dissatisfaction with the three headed QB monster of Griese/Orton/Grossman, they collectively were MORE productive than what Tarvaris Jackson and his backups produced in Minnesota.

As a group, the Vikings WRs converted 56.5% of their intended targets. That’s not very good, as you might expect. But here’s the bad news, Bernard Berrian has only converted 51.2% of his career targets. Let that sink in folks. For all of Berrian’s many talents, he’s managed to barely catch half of the targets thrown to him, yet is going to a team that had WORSE quarterbacking than what he enjoyed with the Bears.

But will this signing help Berrian or his fantasy owners?

Now, we know Berrian is a speedy receiver and, to his credit, he is coming off a career season (70 catches for 948 yards and 5 TDs). But is he an all around difference maker? Even if you argue his numbers were hurt by the QB situation in Chicago, how can anyone say his situation is MORE advantageous in Minnesota?

At least in Chicago, Berrian had the advantage of seeing a lot of targets because the Bears couldn’t run the ball. The Vikings have a phenomenal rushing attack and have no intentions of throwing the ball anywhere close to the 569 times the Bears did a year ago. So even if you assume Berrian can somehow improve upon his lackluster catch percentage in a new environment, it still seems unlikely he’ll see as many targets.

• In 2007, Berrian was targeted 127 times [22% of the Bears pass attempts]
• Berrian would’ve needed to have seen 30% of the Vikings attempts last year just to match his output
• Even if you assume the Vikings will throw a bit more in 2008, they aren’t going to dramatically shift the offensive balance given how superb their rushing attack is

Could Berrian put together a 1,000+ yard season  next year? Certainly, but a lot of things need to happen.

1. He needs to be more consistent catching short- and intermediate passes
2. The Vikings need to see DRAMATIC improvement from Tarvaris Jackson
3. The Vikings need to commit to a more balanced run/pass ratio [despite having a dominant rushing attack]

I think this is one of those signings that helps the Vikings a lot more than it helps fantasy football owners. Given Berrian’s contract and the fact he’s the clear #1 in Minnesota, I expect a lot of fantasy players will covet Berrian and draft him much too early in 2008. I won’t be one of them.

Chicago Bears

WR Bernard Berrian

The Bears probably aren’t going to use their tags; but there’s an outside chance the team tags WR Bernard Berrian. If not with the franchise tag, than possibly the transition tag. Berrian has developed into the team’s best receiver and, given his size and age, would be highly coveted if the Bears let him get into the open market.

Note: Some of you have asked why I didn’t include LB Lance Briggs as an option. Although Briggs is certainly worthy of the designation, the Bears agreed not to tag him this season after he agreed to sign his one-year tender last offseason.

Detroit Lions

The Lions are unlikely to use their tag designations this offseason.

Green Bay Packers

DT Corey Williams

Corey Williams is a long shot to be tagged, but he plays a coveted position and has proven himself a disruptive interior pass rusher (7 sacks in consecutive seasons). If the Packers don’t tag him, they stand an excellent chance of losing his services to a team willing to pay him premium money with an eye toward making him a full-time starter.

xxxx

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Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings are unlikely to use their designations this offseason; none of their potential free agents would justify the financial commitment.

Two weeks ago we discussed the necessity of QB stability for NFL success. At the time, there were 4 teams (Arizona, Carolina, Miami and Minnesota) who started THREE QBs this season. Here is a refresher:

Team	QB1	QB2	QB3
Arizona	Matt Leinart	Kurt Warner	Tim Rattay
Carolina	Jake Delhomme	David Carr	Vinny Testaverde
Miami	Trent Green	Cleo Lemon	John Beck
Minnesota	Tarvaris Jackson	Brooks Bollinger	Kelly Holcomb

It’s no surprise that none of these teams have a winning record. A few other points to consider:

• 53 QBs have started at least one game this year
• 17 teams have used at least 2 starters
• After this weekend (Donovan McNabb = Doubtful), 18 teams (56% of the NFL) will have started 2+ QBs

A few interesting things have happened since I wrote this:

1. Minnesota has won 4 games in a row to raise their record to 7-6
2. Atlanta joined the ranks of 3 QB teams when Chris Redman got the start in Week 14
3. St. Louis joined the ranks as Brock Berlin started Week 14
4. San Francisco will join the ranks this week when Shaun Hill gets the start
5. Chicago will join the ranks as Kyle Orton has been named the Week 15 starter

As if that weren’t enough, several other teams could conceivably join the 3-QB club by season’s end:

• Baltimore — Troy Smith saw time this week, might Baltimore give him a start or two?
• Oakland — There really is no reason why the team shouldn’t give 1st overall pick JaMarcus Russell a start
• Philadelphia — McNabb is back under center, but might Kevin Kolb get a look in Week 17? Probably not

The Giants 41-17 pounding at the hands of the Vikings this weekend was a tough pill to swallow for a team that had far exceeded expectations for much of the season. Whether this was simply the case of a team falling flat or hearkens back to recent second half swoons remains to be seen. But there’s no doubt that Giants fans, coaches, teammates and most importantly, fantasy owners, are all hoping that Eli Manning’s performance bounces back in a hurry.

There was a lot of talk yesterday about Eli Manning’s tendency to regress as the season wears on. Is that really true, or does it just seem that way because the TEAM has floundered late in the season?

Here’s your answer:

Eli Manning’s PER ATTEMPT passing numbers 

The numbers are clear as day, throughout Eli Manning’s career he’s been prone to very strong Septembers, followed by downright mediocrity the rest of the way. This year he’s on a similar trajectory. While there are some legitimate reasons for the Giants struggles of late (most notably Plaxico Burress’ ever-worsening ankle pain); the onus is on Manning to rise to the occasion.

Randy Moss is, needless to say, having a renaissance year where he once again looks like the league’s best receiver (by a wide margin0 after several disappointing years in Minnesota and Oakland. One of our message board contributors asked the question: What is the gap between Jerry Rice and Randy Moss?

dgreen: Jerry Rice IS the greatest WR of all time. This thread isn’t to claim otherwise.

However, for a long time, Rice has been the G.O.A.T. by a pretty large margin over the next guy. “The next guy” tends to be Don Hutson in many minds, but there is at least some argument about who is “the next guy”. For awhile, Randy Moss was viewed as “the next guy” and a legitimate contender to Rice down the road. Then he went to Oakland and people started to even question his HOF worthiness. Now in NE, he is looking like what we always knew he could be: a contender to Rice.

So, what’s the gap here? How much can Moss close that gap? How good of a chance does Moss have to make a move on Rice for GOAT?

Regardless of what you personally think about Randy Moss, his value to the team, his work ethic, etc…it’s impossible to deny that STATISTICALLY he’s among the very best to ever play the position. But how do you measure Moss’ career against the someone that many feel is the best PLAYER (regardless of position) in the modern era?

I think when you consider career accomplishments, importance to the game, work ethic, attitude, longevity, there are MILES between Randy Moss and Jerry Rice. But to dgreen’s question, how far away is Moss statistically?

Randy is currently playing in his 10th season. Through nine games he’s tallied:

• 56 receptions
• 924 yards
• 12 TDs

If we’re to assume Moss maintains his current pace to finish out the year, he would amass:

• 100 receptions
• 1,643 yards
• 21 TDs

Now let’s compare where Moss’ projected career numbers stand against Jerry Rice’s numbers through 10 seasons:

Career Receiving Stats (through 10 seasons)

As you can see, Rice was quite a bit ahead of Moss through 10 seasons. When you consider the unprecedented longevity that Rice enjoyed, too, it seems pretty safe to say that Randy Moss is really no threat to Jerry Rice’s statistical accomplishments.

When you’re rounding out your fantasy rosters, it’s a common practice to overrate the top receivers on bad passing teams. Logically, one assumes that SOMEONE has to be the top target and, as long as they’re getting thrown to, they have fantasy value. Well, year in year out there are a handful of teams that disprove that theory.

This year, five teams have a leading receiver that is on pace to finish with less than 60 receptions:

Looking at that list, you see a number of receivers that were touted as “sleepers” this year; yet play for teams with challenged passing games. Let this be a lesson to you; not every team has viable fantasy options at every position.

OK, a few weeks ago we pondered whether Adrian Peterson was on his way to the best rookie RB season in league history.

After this Sunday’s record-setting 296-yard game, it’s starting to look like we can remove the “rookie” modifier and simply ask, is Peterson going to have one of the best SEASONS ever?

• 8 games
• 158 rushes
• 1,036 yards
• 6.6 yards per rush
• 8 rushing TDs
• 12 receptions
• 206 yards receiving
• 1 receiving TD

Pro-rating that would yield:

• 316 rushes
• 2,072 yards
• 6.6 ypr
• 16 rushing TDs
• 24 receptions
• 412 yards receiving
• 2 receiving TDs

All-Time Single Season Rushing Yards

I’m feeling absolutely SUPER about my decision to trade AD a few weeks ago for Roy Williams, straight up. Hopefully you haven’t been as myopic and are riding “All Day” Peterson to a fantasy crown.

Very few people doubted Adrian Peterson’s talents coming out of Oklahoma, but some wondered if he would have a chance to put them fully on display as a rookie, since the Vikings already had a more-than-serviceable tailback in Chester Taylor. But injuries to Taylor and, more importantly, Peterson’s all-world talents have led to his emerging as one of the league’s best young playmakers right out of the gate.

In case you haven’t been paying close attention, Peterson ran for 224 yards on 20 carries yesterday in the Vikings 34-31 win over the Chicago Bears. Through five games, Peterson’s numbers are:

• 96 rushes
• 607 yards rushing
• 6.3 yards per rush
• 10 receptions
• 175 yards receiving
• 17.5 yards per reception
• 5 TDs

Peterson has 100+ yards rushing in four of his five games, and has plays of 73, 60, and 55 yards on the season.

Were Peterson to maintain this productivity through the end of the season, he would finish the year:

• 307 rushes
• 1,942 yards rushing
• 32 receptions
• 560 receiving yards
• 16 TDs

As you might expect, this would be a record-breaking season for a rookie NFL RB.

Rookie RB Seasons, Yards from Scrimmage (1960-Present)

But would it be the best fantasy season? Using standard FBG scoring it, just barely, WOULD BE…

Top Rookie RB Fantasy Seasons (1960-Present)

This has been a crazy year for quarterbacks. Many have been injured, and out for the year while some have been just plain inefficient.

Let’s look at some of the journeymen passers that either started in Week Five or might start in Week Six:

• Trent Dilfer (SF) – The consummate game manager and fantasy quarterback least likely for success. If he enters your fantasy lineup, you are probably doomed for a loss.
• Gus Frerotte (STL) — The veteran from Tulsa has played with several teams and knows coach Linehan’s system. But, we would be fooling ourselves if we thought he was a healthy Bulger’s peer. He is a desperate start in week six.
• David Carr or Vinny Testaverde (CAR) — Pick your poison. Which is worse? I see a toss up. Maybe Vinny would be able to find Steve Smith. I know he is not a tall fellow, but Smith should be easy to find if Kerry Colbert and Drew Carter are the other options.
• Kurt Warner (ARI) – He has a great matchup this week. But, how many games do we really expect before Warner is injured? Enter Tim Rattay. You know, the guy who could not beat out Kerry Collins. Gulp. Hang on to your hats, Boldin and Fitzgerald owners, it might be a bumpy ride.
• Kelly Holcomb (MIN) — We all know Holcomb as the guy who could not beat out Craig Nall or A.J. Feeley. With the receivers the Vikings have, would you really want to start Holcomb? Me either.

This list does not even include the likes of Daunte Culpepper, Cleo Lemon, and Byron Leftwich. This has been a rough year for passers getting hurt. Look for some additional passers to be benched from here on out for the young guns. This is the time in the fantasy season where it gets ugly, real ugly, for fantasy quarterbacks during the bye week crunch. So, good luck to those of you starting one of the above quarterbacks … you just might need it. If these guys were rock bands, they would not even make the amusement park circuit.

Week two of the NFL season saw many players integral to fantasy football nicked up …. with some worse than others.

This is by no means an exhaustive list but shows how widespread the injuries were for skill position players.

QBs:

• Marc Bulger hurt is knee and ribs in week two. He should be ok, but keep an eye on the situation. Make sure to pick Gus up if the news changes on the severity.
• Tarvaris Jackson injured his groin in a hard fought lss to the Detroit Lions. He was having a terrible game as it was. Brooks Bollinger is the backup.
• Steve McNair also has a groin injury. He missed Sunday’s game against the New York Jets. His replacement, Kyle Boller, player well. In fact, many in Baltimore think Boller might give the Ravens a better chance to go far in the playoffs.
• Chad Pennington hurt his ankle in week one against the New England Patriots. He tried to warm up on it but Kellen Clemens started in his stead and played admirably for his first career start. This could be a budding QB controversy.

RBs:

• Rookie Ahmad Bradshaw, who is primarily a kick returner at this time, hurt his elbow in the game against the Packers. Combine this with the Jacobs injury and the Giants are very thin at running back.
• Vernand Morency is still battling knee problems and could be out even longer.

WRs:

• Greg Jennings practiced all week in hopes of playing but his injured hammy could not go. Now, he will sit all week in practice and should be a dreaded game time decision.
• Andre Johnson sprained his PCL (knee) in the week two game. He has been playing so well that the MRI results will be very important.
• Patrick Crayton, playing instead of injured Terry Glenn, broke his finger in the game against the Dolphins. It looked nasty. He went back in the game but was held without a catch.
• Plaxico Burress re-injured his ankle in the week two game against the Packers. With the way Plax has been playing, this is a situation to monitor.
• Burress’ teammate, Steve Smith, fractured his shoulder blade. He should be back in around a month.
• Troy Williamson injured his hammy against the Lions.

Every year, there are a number of second- and third-year defensive ends that break out as they grow into their position physically and mentally. Last year, saw Robert Geathers, Bobby McCray and Aaron Kampman explode onto the NFL scene with double digit sacks. Veteran IDPers know how important it is to find undervalued defensive players late in drafts and on the waiver wire and there looks to be a deeper list of candidates along the defensive line this season than any in recent memory. Don’t forget about Geathers and McCray, who will both have expanded roles this year, but keep a watchful eye on the following candidates to grab late in your draft or as early season free agents.

Stanley McClover (CAR) — McClover declared for the 2006 draft as a college junior and fell to the seventh round due to concerns about his physical maturity. McClover spent most of 2006 on the inactive lists, learning from Julius Peppers and Mike Rucker. After adding 15 pounds to his already considerable edge rushing skills, McClover’s solid offseason may have earned him the majority of snaps in the base defense this year. He may still rotate with Mike Rucker and Charles Johnson, but has big potential if he can get 40 or more snaps a game.

Ray Edwards (MIN) — The Vikings have been waiting for someone to stay healthy and productive long enough to generate a consistent pass rush. Kenechi Udeze hasn’t been able to do it, neither has Erasmus James. Edwards flashed at times last year and has been given the RDE job. His primary responsibility will be rushing the quarterback in Leslie Frazier’s aggressive scheme.

Elvis Dumervil (DEN) — I suggested avoiding Dumervil in IDP leagues in one of my weekly Reading the Defense subscriber columns last season, dismissing him as a situational pass rusher. Two things have changed since then. First, Dumervil gets the benefit of lining up a little wider in Jim Bates’ defensive scheme, which will give him a better angle to get to the quarterback and allow him to maximize his speed rush while minimizing his size disadvantage. Second, the loss of Ebenezer Ekuban will significantly increase Dumervil’s snaps. Dumervil showed his explosiveness in 2006 and may better those numbers in 2007. A must roster in big play leagues.

Darryl Tapp (SEA) — With the mediocre Grant Wistrom and Bryce Fisher finally on the outs, Tapp gets his opportunity in 2007. Another undersized pass rusher who took some extra time to mature, Tapp will start opposite free agent acquisition Patrick Kerney. If he can hold up as an every down player, Tapp also has big pass rush potential.

Justin Tuck (NYG) — Tuck’s value is dependent on Michael Strahan staying home. After getting lost in the depth the Giants had at end over the past two seasons, Tuck is in line for a starting job if Strahan elects not to play with Mathias Kiwanuka moved to SLB. Tuck is a very solid all-around defensive end and opposing offensive coordinators will be focusing on Osi Umenyiora. Tuck is very likely to go undrafted, but needs to be watched very closely if Strahan sits.

Mario Williams (HOU) — Williams is probably still valued by most casual IDP owners on name recognition. He should be firmly on your radar should he slip. Williams wasn’t nearly as bad as the media made him out to be last year when comparing him to Reggie Bush. Struggling through a toe problem, Williams held his own. With his explosiveness likely back in 2007, we may finally see the all-around talent that made him the first overall pick last year.

Jamaal Anderson (ATL) — Anderson is the only 2007 rookie on this list. Rookie defensive ends rarely have an every-down impact but those that do (Hali, Peppers, etc) often fit Anderson’s profile. Impact rookie defensive ends are usually mostly polished players. They have a solid frame to stand up at the point of attack. They have some understanding of how to use their hands and lower body in leverage. They have more than one pass rush move. You’ll find a one-trick pass rusher (Dwight Freeney) or situational stud (Mark Anderson) now and then, but the rookie DEs to target in IDP redrafts are those with the best all-around skill sets.

Following on on what Jason Wood said, I have some more thoughts on the Detroit Lions RB situation.

Kevin Jones will begin the season on the PuP list. This means he will miss the first five games of the season leaving Bell as the unquestioned starter for a third of the season. That is great for Bell owners, isn’t it?

Who will the Lions play in those five games? Tatum will start versus the Oakland Raiders, Minnesota Vikings, Philadelphia Eagles, Chicago Bears, and Washington Redskins. The Bears and Vikings were two of the top teams versus the run in 2006.

The thing about Bell is his inconsistency with carries and production. Even though Tatum finished with 233 carries in thirteen games, he only had six games with more than 18 carries. And, he had five games with over one hundred rushing yards and five games under fifty rushing yards.

Tatum Bell is a good RB to have on your team. The tough part comes on whether you feel comfortable starting him over another viable RB with this schedule.

Continuing on…I thought it might be helpful to give you a few quick hitting comments on which players are rising and falling in MY (i.e., different than Dodds’) projections this preseason.

Up next, the NFC North:

RISING

• Kelly Holcomb, MIN (Rank: QB37) — From Eagles 4th stringer to Vikings backup
• J.T. O’Sullivan, DET (Rank: QB45) — Appears to have edge in DET QB2 battle
• Tatum Bell, DET (Rank: RB34) — In line to start in Detroit
• T.J. Duckett, DET (Rank: RB59) — In great shape + Short yardage role
• Calvin Johnson, DET (Rank: WR25) — The real deal + Martz offense
• Troy Williamson, MIN (Rank: WR47) — Still raw, but eyesight improved and team’s only deep threat
• James Jones, GB (Rank: WR60) — Best receiver in Packers camp + Coaches willing to play rookies
• Bobby Wade, MIN (Rank: WR61) — Listed as a starter all preseason
• Devin Hester, CHI (Rank: WR93) — Marginal player, but I had him ranked with 0 FPTs earlier this preseason
• Donald Lee, GB (Rank: TE31) — Starting ahead of Bubba Franks
• Mason Crosby, GB (Rank: PK28) — My pick to win the starting PK job

FALLING

• Brooks Bollinger, MIN (Rank: Unranked) — Was supposed to compete for starting nod, now QB3
• Dan Orlovsky, DET (Rank: Unranked) — J.T. O’Sullivan appears to be in lead for QB2 role
• Kevin Jones, DET (Rank: RB44) — Injured all preseason, could go on PUP list
• Greg Jennings, GB (Rank: WR35) — MIA in preseason, James Jones playing lights out
• Mike Furrey, DET (Rank: WR51) — Johnson could start by Week One
• Mark Bradley, CHI (Rank: WR119) — Regular role in the offense seems in question
• Billy McMullen, MIN (Rank: WR130) — May not make Vikings roster
• Bubba Franks, GB (Rank: TE34) — Running with the 2nd team
• Dave Rayner, GB (Rank: Unranked) — My pick to lose the starting PK job

Let’s hear your thoughts…where do you agree? Where do you disagree and why?

The long-rumored exodus of Kelly Holcomb is now complete. The Eagles have traded away the journeyman QB to the Minnesota Vikings for a 6th rounder. Holcomb will almost assuredly slot into the QB2 role displacing Brooks Bollinger. To say Bollinger has struggled in camp would be an understatement.

The question owners in deeper fantasy leagues need to ask themselves is, does Holcomb represent a threat to Tarvaris Jackson?

For the near term, absolutely not. But longer term, Kelly Holcomb would seem a much more credible threat to displace Jackson than Bollinger was:

• 41 games played
• 523 completions
• 810 attempts
• 64.6% completion rate
• 5,401 yards passing
• 6.7 YPA
• 37 TDs
• 37 INTs

Make no mistake though, if Holcomb has to take over for Jackson at some point this season, it’s because Jackson REALLY struggled. It also means the Vikings passing game likely has little to no fantasy value (not that it’s resplendent with fantasy value now).

As the preseason game action heats up, I always notice that fantasy owners scramble to update their projections and rankings with each passing box score. The Cowboys backup tight end scored 2 TDs, bump him up by 100 yards and a score! It’s natural, but sometimes it can be a really bad mistake.

Let’s take a look at the 2006 RB preseason stats to flesh out what I mean:

• Travis Henry & Chris Brown, TEN: Brown averaged 3.5 yards per rush while Henry averaged only 3.1 yards per rush. It seemed like a tried and true RBBC with neither being worth all that much; yet Henry went on to be a solid fantasy contributor and bonafide Titans’ workhorse.
• Chester Taylor, MIN: Taylor logged 37 preseason carries but only averaged 2.6 yards per rush. Many began to wonder if he wasn’t equipped for an every down role and fantasy owners let him fall too far. They also wasted picks on “upside” guys like Mewelde Moore and Ciatrick Fason.
• Wali Lundy, HOU: Lundy ran for 143 yards (5.5 yards per rush) and went from a fantasy non-factor to a mid round “sleeper” pick in a matter of weeks. Although Lundy started the season, visions that he would be the next Willie Parker went by the wayside and Lundy found his way to fantasy benches and/or waiver wires.

I’m not saying that fantasy stats don’t matter, let’s be clear. But what I’m saying is that they should, in no way, supersede the other analysis you’ve done for months in preparation for your drafts. As important as their box scores are whether they’re running with the first team? Are they healthy? Is their supporting cast healthy? Do they have history of performing above/below preseason levels?

It’s OK to get excited about what you see in the preseason, but only if it helps you gain clarity on a situation you weren’t sure about beforehand.

Taking a look at the the latest ADP data, it seems that fantasy owners are paying too much attention to where the rookie WR crop were drafted in April versus how their situations have evolved over the four months since. Let’s look at the top-12 rookie receivers, according to the most recent ADP data:

• Calvin Johnson — WR20 (54th overall)
• Anthony Gonzalez — WR53 (160th overall)
• Dwayne Jarrett — WR56 (164th overall)
• Dwayne Bowe — WR59 (175th overall)
• Ted Ginn Jr. — WR62 (187th overall)
• Robert Meachem — WR63 (195th overall)
• Craig Davis — WR77 (246th overall)
• Jason Hill — WR82 (256th overall)
• James Jones — WR83 (257th overall)
• Steve Smith — WR87 (269th overall)
• Sidney Rice — WR88 (270th overall)
• Jacoby Jones — WR102 (311th overall)

In my opinion, some of these draft positions are WAY out of whack with the reality of their 2007 opportunities.

OVERVALUED ROOKIES

• Anthony Gonzalez, IND — He’s a rookie, he’s not guaranteed the #3 spot (Aaron Moorehead has been as good in camp, and has the experience factor), and save for Manning’s 49-TD season, the WR3 slot in Indy hasn’t warranted a pick that high based on year-end numbers
• Dwayne Jarrett, CAR – Yes, he may be the future WR2 in Carolina, but he’s not the present. Both Drew Carter and Keary Colbert have been running ahead of him all preseason
• Jason Hill, SF — It’s hard to call someone being drafted 256th overall overvalued. But Hill is going ahead of at least 10 wideouts I think will handily outperform him this year. Hill hasn’t gotten any run in San Francisco this preseason, and looks to start the season no better than WR4 (at best)
• Robert Meachem, NO — Meachem may have a bright future in New Orleans, but as our Sigmund Bloom said this week on The Audible, this is looking more and more like a “red shirt” year for the young speedster out of Tennessee. Meachem was a camp holdout and then showed up out of shape. He hasn’t sniffed the first team during the preseason and is running solidly behind Marques Colston, Devery Henderson, Terrence Copper, David Patten and possibly, Lance Moore.
• Ted Ginn Jr., MIA — Ginn is an athlete, but he’s not a polished receiver yet. Unless your team gets points for special teams contributions, Ginn is going far too high given the options still available.

FAIRLY VALUED ROOKIES

• Calvin Johnson, DET – Calvin Johnson is currently ranked 23rd in our consensus WR rankings, so his ADP of WR20 isn’t too out of whack. While it’s never a sure bet to bet on a rookie to deliver WR20 numbers, Johnson is a once-in-a-generation talent and plays for one of the league’s most pass happy offensive coordinators.
• Dwayne Bowe, KC – The Chiefs aren’t going to throw a lot based on Herm Edwards’ coaching history; and Brodie Croyle hasn’t instilled much confidence. However, the Chiefs are more desperate for a young playmaker at wideout than any team in the NFL. Eddie Kennison is solid but he’s getting old and is really better suited as a WR2. And Samie Parker (Mr. Inconsistent) is all that stands in Bowe’s way.
• Sidney Rice, MIN — Rice is an enigma. He’s super skinny and playing in arguably the most jumbled WR corps in the league, but he could easily emerge as a starter sometime this season. The issue, however, is that he could just as easily end up the 4th or 5th wideout. Add to that the uncertainty of QB Tarvaris Jackson and Rice is probably best left as a late round flier or waiver wire pickup

UNDERVALUED ROOKIES

• Craig Davis, SD — Eric Parker is out for a good chunk of the season and rookie Davis has been running with the starting unit opposite Vincent Jackson. The Chargers have a Pro Bowl QB in Philip Rivers and while the WR2 won’t get a ton of targets because of Tomlinson and Gates also getting looks, any NFL starting wideout deserves a higher ADP than Davis’
• James Jones, GB – As we discussed yesterday, Jones has been a beast this preseason and should be the Packers WR3 at worst. But with the injury to Donald Driver, Jones could start the season opposite Greg Jennings. With the Packers throwing the ball 500+ times, and the team’s willingness to start rookies (Jennings started last year), Jones should be drafted in 12-team leagues but his ADP suggests he’s not been
• Steve Smith, NYG — Smith is going to start the season as the Giants WR3, but given Burress’ and Toomer’s injury situations, and Toomer’s advancing age, he stands a good chance of becoming a starter at some point this year. Smith has been one of the most impressive, polished rookie receivers throughout training camp and the preseason. He should have a better season than his USC counterpart
• Jacoby Jones, HOU — Jones is running neck and neck with Kevin Walter for the Texans WR2 position. The Texans have no reason to sit a talent like Jones if he’s as good, if not better than Walter at this juncture. While the Texans offense has its question marks, a 16-game NFL starter (potentially) deserves to be drafted in deeper leagues, yet Jacoby is going outside the top 300!

Robert Ferguson has signed with the Minnesota Vikings after being released last week by the Green Bay Packers. While it’s tough to get excited about the perennial underachiever, I was shocked to read the following blurb from the aforementioned ESPN article:

Ferguson was drafted in the second round by the Packers in 2001 and will immediately become the most experienced and productive receiver on the Vikings. Despite battling numerous injuries, Ferguson has caught 116 passes for 1,577 yards and 12 touchdowns in his six years in the league.

Before his arrival, Bobby Wade had the best numbers on the team with 101 catches and just two touchdowns in his career.

If I’m a Vikings fan, that little factoid is downright SCARY. I mean, Ferguson’s career best season was 2003 when he caught 38 receptions for 520 yards and 4 touchdowns. His best fantasy ranking? 56th!

Here are the current Vikings receivers and their career stats:

• Robert Ferguson (6 seasons): 116 receptions / 1,577 yards / 13.6 YPC / 12 TDs
• Bobby Wade (4 seasons): 101 receptions / 1,199 yards / 11.9 YPC / 2 TDs
• Troy Williamson (2 seasons): 61 receptions / 827 yards / 13.6 YPC / 2 TDs
• Billy McMullen (4 seasons):  45 receptions / 601 yards / 13.4 YPC / 3 TDs
• Sidney Rice (Rookie): N/A
• Aundrae Allison (Rookie): N/A
• Cortez Hankton (4 seasons): 34 receptions / 310 yards / 9.1 YPC / 2 TDs
• Jason Carter (1 season): 0 / 0 / 0 / 0
• Martin Nance (1 season): 4 receptions / 33 yards / 8.2 YPC / 0 TDs

Not that anyone expected Tarvaris Jackson to set the world on fire, but is there a potential contributor in this bunch? If anything, I would think the Vikings are best served giving the trio of well-regarded youngsters (Williamson, Rice and Allison) long looks this year; if there’s a star in this group, it’s not Bobby Wade or Robert Ferguson.