The first real shocker of the draft. The Titans, with plenty of needs, take a running back that was projected as a 2nd rounder by almost everyone. RB Chris Johnson is a home run hitter; but for as special as his breakaway speed may be, he’s got lots of limitations which make him hard to project as a full-time starter down the road. The Titans got good productivity from Lendale White last year and drafted Chris Henry a season ago. Perhaps the Titans view Johnson’s kickoff ability as something notable.

Fantasy Impact: It just makes a muddy situation muddier. Lendale White is still probably the bellcow here, but now he’s got not one but two other young backs who can earn playing time.

That didn’t take long…

…just a day after signing Michael “The Burner” Turner to a monster free agent contract, the Falcons released Warrick Dunn.

The 33-year old tailback will have little trouble finding work elsewhere; particularly if he’s willing to accept a role as a backup and situational contributor on a contending team.

Possible Landing Spots?

It’s never too early to handicap where Dunn might land, here are five teams that make imminent sense in our minds:

1. Indianapolis Colts — The Colts don’t have a reliable backup on the roster, and Dunn would be a perfect complement to Joseph Addai. He likely would accept a lesser role on the Colts because they are among a handful of Super Bowl contenders. Given his prior relationship with Tony Dungy when they were in Tampa Bay; this situation almost seems too logical to be true. Update: OK, it seems I may have sold Kenton Keith short. He had a solid 2007 season with 533 yards (4.4 YPC), 13 receptions and 4 total TDs.
2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Jon Gruden is no stranger to veteran contributors and Dunn has strong ties to the Tampa area from his days as a Buc. The Bucs would probably have to make a bigger financial commitment to Dunn than the Colts would, simply because of the less certain playoff outlook.
3. Detroit Lions – Kevin Jones may not be ready for the start of the season, and the Lions have virtually no one ready to step in and play. This is one of the few places Dunn could conceivably earn big playing time; and HC Rod Marinelli is a Dunn fan from their days in Tampa.
4. Dallas Cowboys — The Cowboys never seem to shy away from aging veterans and Jerry Jones could easily view Dunn as a solid backup and complement to Marion Barber; who is slated for a heavier workload in 2008 with the departure of Julius Jones.
5. Tennessee Titans — Pairing Dunn with LenDale White could be an interesting one-two punch. Dunn’s veteran presence, work ethic and his commitment to blocking would serve as great examples for White and fellow youngster Chris Henry. It’s unclear whether the Titans are open to adding someone 11 years into the league; but if they are, Dunn could be a nice two-year answer.

Where do you think Dunn will land? Do you think he’ll have any tangible fantasy value in 2008? Let’s hear your thoughts in our discussion forum.

The deadline for teams to apply the franchise or transition tag designations ended at 4:30 pm EST yesterday; so now it’s time to recap what happened and evaluate some of the moves (and non-moves).

Twelve (12) teams used the franchise tag designation:

• CB Nmandi Asomugha (Oakland)
• CB Marcus Trufant (Seattle)
• DE Jared Allen (Kansas City)
• DT Albert Haynesworth (Tennessee)
• DT Corey Williams (Green Bay)
• LB Karlos Dansby (Arizona)
• LB Terrell Suggs (Baltimore)
• OT Stacy Andrews (Cincinnati)
• OT Jordan Gross (Carolina)
• S Ken Hamlin (Dallas)
• TE Dallas Clark (Indianapolis)
• TE L.J. Smith (Philadelphia)

Most Surprising Tag: Stacy Andrews

Andrews played quite well last season, but it was his first year as a starter. The Bengals still have Levi Jones and Willie Anderson in the picture; although that may change now that Andrews has been tagged. Given the importance of Carson Palmer and Andrews’ age, the move isn’t a total shocker; although few outside of die hard Bengals fans expected it.

Most Surprising Non-Tag: Randy Moss 

As we discussed last night, not tagging Randy Moss is shocking only if they don’t already have a long-term deal completed; but unannounced until the February 29th start of free agency. We expect he IS under contract, but if this proves untrue, this may be the most shocking non-tag decision of the modern era.

Other Surprising Non-Tags 

• OT Flozell Adams (Dallas) – Adams is no spring chicken, and the Cowboys did use their tag on someone else (Ken Hamlin), but this is a bold move if the Cowboys don’t end up re-signing Adams. He has played at a high level the last few seasons and the team doesn’t have someone of his caliber (or close to it) currently on the roster. Will Jerry Jones be willing to go to battle with a young, unproven tackle in 2008?
• PK Josh Brown (Seattle) — The Seahawks tagged Brown last year and it was thought he could be tagged again this season; but now free agency looms. It’s never an easy decision to let a proven kicker walk, but perhaps they didn’t see the logic in making him the highest paid PK in the league.

Interesting Tag Minutiae

• Exclusive tag versus non-exclusive – As we discussed earlier this week, Nmandi Asomugha was tagged with an exclusive franchise designation, meaning the Raiders paid him more (the average of the 2008 top 5 projected salaries versus the 2007 in a normal tag) in exchange for keeping Asomugha from being able to negotiate with other teams. It’s telling that only one of twelve teams opted to use this tag; as it involves paying a player more yet brings less wiggle room. Why a team would pass up the idea of getting 2 first round picks if a team wants their free agent badly enough is a mystery (the Raiders would still have had the right to match).
• Is Suggs a linebacker or defensive end? — The Baltimore Ravens tagged Terrell Suggs as a linebacker, but he has filed a grievance contending he should be paid as a defensive end. The difference? About $800K for the one-year tender. This matter will be settled shortly (if Suggs lined up more than 50% of the snaps as an end, he’ll get his extra dough), but it’s odd that Suggs, who has gone to the Pro Bowl twice as a LINEBACKER would think of himself otherwise.

Most Likely to Sign a Long-term Deal: Dallas Clark

OK, this is cheating since Clark already signed a 6-year deal to remain with the Colts.

Least Likely to Sign a Long-term Deal:  L.J. Smith

The Eagles remain concerned about Smith’s health and likely won’t agree to a long-term extension without seeing improvement on the field. This is basically a one-year option to retain a talented, system TE in a very weak free agent market for tight ends.

How did we do in our predictions?

We previewed each division and our thoughts on potential tag candidates. Overall, I’d say we did quite well.

• We correctly predicted 9 of 10 ‘definites’; our only whiff was on Randy Moss
• We noted that Flozell Adams and Ken Hamlin were possibilities in Dallas [although we leaned toward Adams]
• We noted that Brown and Trufant were possibilities in Seattle [and leaned toward Trufant]
• We noted DT Corey Williams and WR Bernard Berrian as possible tags [one out of two]
• We suggested that Justin Smith shouldn’t be tagged

Now it’s onto free agency and the NFL draft!
Related Blogs:

• ‘Tis the Season for Tagging
• NFC East Potential Tag Candidates
• NFC North Potential Tag Candidates
• NFC South Potential Tag Candidates
• NFC West Potential Tag Candidates
• AFC East Potential Tag Candidates
• AFC North Potential Tag Candidates
• AFC South Potential Tag Candidates
• AFC West Potential Tag Candidates

When you’re 6′6″, 320 pounds and coming off a dominant (40 tackles, 6 sacks in 12 starts) performance for an improving team; the franchise tag designation isn’t something that should come as a surprise. When you also happen to be only 26 years old; it really becomes a no-brainer. Such was the case for Albert Haynesworth, who was tagged by the Tennessee Titans.

Obviously both sides hope this move will lead to a long-term contract:

“This is a step in the process with Albert,” general manager Mike Reinfeldt said. “This designation gives us more time to work on a long-term contract with him. He was a dominant player for us this past season and one of the key components to our success on defense.”‘

Houston Texans

The Texans don’t appear to have anyone that would warrant a franchise or transition tag designation.

Indianapolis Colts

TE Dallas Clark

The Colts would be well served to tag Dallas Clark if they can’t come to terms on an extension in the next week. Clark has evolved into one of Peyton Manning’s most reliable receivers and, from what we understand, is one of his best friends on the team to boot. With the Eagles decision to tag L.J. Smith, Clark becomes far and away the most attractive free agent tight end; the last thing the Colts want is to let Clark get into the open market.

sssss

Jacksonville Jaguars

Most of the Jaguars free agents are expendable, with only Quinn Gray and Ernest Wilford likely to be priorities. That said, neither player warrants the franchise or transition tag designations.

Tennessee Titans

DT Albert Haynesworth

Albert Hayneworth may be a controversial player and, from a personality standpoint, may not be the optimal guy to have in the locker room. That said, the Titans are faced with a difficult decision because Hayneworth’s on-field value is nearly unmatched at any position this offseason. At 6′6″, 320 pounds and only 26 years old, Haynesworth is the kind of defensive tackle that never sees the light of free agency. Expect the Titans to tag Haynesworth in order to continue negotiations on a long-term deal. It’s not out of the question the team would trade him, but not without significant value in return.

Norm Chow has been fired by the Tennessee Titans as offensive coordinator.

“I appreciate all of the hard work and contributions he made to the organization during his time here, but I have decided to go in a different direction and will start the process of finding a new offensive coordinator,” Fisher said in the statement.

The move may come as a surprise to some given Chow’s reputation as an offensive guru, but observers closer to the situation would argue it was inevitable given Chow’s growing impatience with Vince Young’s development. There are reports that Chow will return to the Pac-10 as UCLA’s offensive coordinator; but either way, his time under Jeff Fisher has now come to a close.

Was Chow’s time in Tennessee a success? It’s difficult to say considering Chow stepped in at the very end of Steve McNair’s tenure and was asked to mentor a raw but promising young QB in Vince Young. For comparison sake, let’s look at Tennessee’s offensive rankings in Chow’s three seasons compared to the three prior seasons (under OC Mike Heimerdinger):

Rushing Offense: League Rankings, 3-Year Comparisons

Chow’s rushing offense was more productive, on average. The Titans produced more rushing yards and more rushing TDs with fewer carries. But remember this included a mobile Vince Young, and even with the improvement, Tennessee failed to produce top-10 offensive rushing totals in any category over Chow’s 3-year span.

Passing Offense: League Rankings, 3-Year Comparisons

This is where Chow failed to earn his paycheck. Vince Young regressed mightily in 2007, and overall Chow’s passing offenses paled in comparison to Heimerdinger’s. Chow’s star was bright BECAUSE of the work with young quarterbacks. He was responsible for developing Steve Young and Ty Detmer while at BYU, Philip Rivers while at NC State and Carson Palmer and Matt Leinart at USC. His inability to bring Young along is, no doubt, where the rubber failed to meet the road.

Total Offense: League Rankings, 3-Year Comparisons

When your passing numbers are pedestrian, it usually guarantees that total offensive rankings aren’t going to be complimentary, either. In Chow’s case, his Titans ranked just 22nd in total yards and 20th in total points, on average, a material drop from the 12th and 11th place, rankings, respectively in the 2002-2004 period.

You are welcome to consider the following as analysis or entertainment, as you see fit.

WEEK 16 of the 2O06 SEASON
Seven kickers score in double digits in week 16 last year:
10 Matt Bryant in TB 22-7 victory at Cle
11 David Akers in Phi 23-7 victory at Dal
12 Rob Bironas in Ten 30-29 victory at Buf
12 John Carney in NO 30-7 victory at NYG
14 Neil Rackers in Ari 26-20 victory at SF
14 Robbie Gould in Chi 26-20 victory at Det
17 Rian Lindell in Buf 29-20 loss against Ten

6 of 7 of those games featured teams that ended up with similar records (Chi-Det being the exception)
6 of 7 of those kickers played for the visiting team (Lindell being the exception)
6 of 7 of those kickers played for the team that won (Lindell being the exception)

WEEK 16 of the 2007 SEASON
Who are the visiting kickers this week in matchups of teams with similar records?
Lawrence Tynes: 9-5 NYG at 7-7 Buf
David Akers: 6-8 Phi at 7-7 NO
John Carney: 4-10 KC at 6-8 Det
Shaun Suisham: 7-7 Was at 8-6 Min

When you’re rounding out your fantasy rosters, it’s a common practice to overrate the top receivers on bad passing teams. Logically, one assumes that SOMEONE has to be the top target and, as long as they’re getting thrown to, they have fantasy value. Well, year in year out there are a handful of teams that disprove that theory.

This year, five teams have a leading receiver that is on pace to finish with less than 60 receptions:

Looking at that list, you see a number of receivers that were touted as “sleepers” this year; yet play for teams with challenged passing games. Let this be a lesson to you; not every team has viable fantasy options at every position.

Chris Brown darted his way to 175 yards rushing on 19 carries in Tennessee’s Week One victory over Jacksonville. As a result, Brown was the top waiver wire priority in just about every league he wasn’t already rostered; and more than a few people inserted him into their starting lineups this week.

The result? 12 carries for 34 yards and zero touchdowns.

Now let’s compare Brown’s tallies with LenDale White:

• Week One: Brown (19 for 175, 0 TDs) vs. White (18 for 66, 0 TDs)
• Week Two: Brown (12 for 34, 0 TDs) vs. White (15 for 64, 1 TD)
• Total:  Brown (31 for 209, 0 TDs) vs. White (33 for 130, 1 TD)

White has been the more consistent back in the first two weeks, and his TD came at the goal-line. But is White the clear goal-line back?

Goal-Line Carries, Tennessee (Through Week Two)

• LenDale White: 4 rushes, 1 TD
• Chris Brown: 2 rushes, 0 TDs
• Vince Young: 2 rushes, 1 TD

The bottom line is that despite Brown’s huge Week One, this remains very much a RBBC situation. And unless you think the Titans defense is going to be stout enough to allow the team to rush 30-40 times per game, there are going to be very subpar weeks for both of these guys.

If you raced out to grab Brown thinking he was going to grab the brass ring and displace White from an even split; you might want to try to trade him away before the rest of your league realizes your mistake.

The good news is LenDale White has clearly dug himself out of the doghouse through solid preseason play and has been named the Week One starter in Tennessee. Any time you can grab an NFL starting RB past the first four or five rounds, it’s something fantasy owners should at least be aware of. But temper your enthusiasm as it appears Jeff Fisher is ready, willing and able to go with a true committee approach; at least to start the season.

Barring a late change of heart by the coaching staff, LenDale White will start at running back when the Titans open the regular season Sept. 9 at Jacksonville.

Fisher said veteran Chris Brown will also get plenty of carries.

“I thought LenDale and Chris both showed enough this preseason in different situations against different defenses … to warrant significant playing time,” Fisher said.

“As far as which guys lines up first, I’d say in all likelihood it will probably be LenDale, but it is not going to be a situation where he gets 90 percent of the carries. I like the rotation, I like the fact we can keep them both fresh. I think they both have a chance to be more productive when they are fresh in the ball game.”

Getting the starting nod is half the battle. Remember, White seemed to be in serious jeopardy this offseason when the Titans used a high draft pick on Chris Henry and then brought back Chris Brown after seemingly letting him leave in free agency. But White did what the coaches asked (i.e., show up to camp looking more like a runner than an offensive tackle), and has been the best of the trio of backs for most of the preseason.

The NFL Season is just two weeks away, and Fantasy Football drafts are happening all over the country. My eyes are about to pop out of my head from watching 40+ NFL preseason games either in entirety, in fast forward (stopping to catch several key plays) or even on the NFL.com highlight reel. My two DVRs are jam-packed still, but time is a-wastin’.

With that in mind, I have gone through my offensive player rankings for Footballguys for perhaps the last time before Week 1. For obvious reasons I cannot provide my entire rankings list here (subscriber only content), but I can tell you about a few tweaks that I made. There are several changes across the board, mostly minor upticks and downgrades, but I thought it would help some to know about the major moves I made and why:

Tight Ends:

Take a look here for my overall TE redraft rankings as well as several other Footballguys staff’s opinions.

Tight Ends are often overlooked and discounted as not worth much in Fantasy Football, but certain players can make a key difference and win you several games over the course of a fantasy season. Here at Footballguys we focus on ranking TEs based solely on touchdown and yardage (no points per reception bonuses), so if those come into play in your particular league also keep that in mind. Every point matters.

Based on what I have seen, read and heard over the past few weeks, I have only one player that is really moving up a lot and it shouldn’t surprise you if you read my changes at wide receiver. Pittsburgh is going to throw more this year and I think that benefits not just Santonio Holmes but also Heath Miller. Miller will be going deeper and down the seam more, and I think he could crack the Top 10 TE list for 2007.

Tennessee is struggling to find competent receivers. Last season, Vince Young relied on his two tight ends - Bo Scaife and Ben Troupe - to help him to sustain drives. This year it appears that it is all about Scaife and there are even rumors that Troupe is on the trading block. Target Scaife and move Troupe down your list.

Jacksonville is also a WR nightmare. The TEs are also jumbled, but it got a little clearer when Jermaine Wiggins (former Viking) was released. Marcedes Lewis should take over this position, but I’m still wary about the entire Jaguar passing game.

Green Bay will throw quite a bit this year (big surprise), and Brett Favre still loves Bubba Franks. Donald Lee was supposed to push him out of a job, but Franks never got that memo.

Lastly, many who have followed my writings about later round TEs know that I am a big fan of the Carolina Panthers’ new starter, Jeff King. King was a standout at Virginia Tech, and now he gets his big shot. Carolina has issues in their passing attack and they need a “go to” guy without Keyshawn to move the chains on third down. King can be that guy.

Good luck everyone.

Continuing on…I thought it might be helpful to give you a few quick hitting comments on which players are rising and falling in MY (i.e., different than Dodds’) projections this preseason.

Up next, the AFC South:

RISING

• David Garrard, JAX (Rank: QB34) — Will start a few games this year
• Ahman Green, HOU (Rank: RB18) — Houston run-blocking = decent, Green will catch passes and run a lot
• Roydell Williams, TEN (Rank: WR55)  –  Running with 1st team
• Ernest Wilford, JAX (Rank: WR56) — Running with Jags 1st team all preseason
• Dennis Northcutt, JAX (Rank: WR62) — Running with Jags 1st team all preseason
• Aaron Moorehead, IND (Rank: WR67) — Looks like Brandon Stokley’s replacement
• Jacoby Jones, HOU (Rank: WR88) — Could start season as WR2
• Owen Daniels, HOU (Rank: TE11) — Rookie stats compare favorably to league’s best + 2nd option in passing game
• Bo Scaife, TEN (Rank: TE18) — Young’s favorite red zone target
• Marcedes Lewis, JAX (Rank: TE19) — Lack of proven WRs + Wiggins release = Top-20 season

FALLING

• Byron Leftwich, JAX (Rank: QB26) — Another year, another preseason of questions
• Matt Jones, JAX (Rank: WR52) — Running with 2nd team
• Brandon Jones, TEN (Rank: WR57) — Roydell Williams running ahead of him on depth chart
• Reggie Williams, JAX (Rank: WR98) — In danger of being released
• Anthony Gonzalez, IND (Rank: WR107) — Not staking claim to WR3 role
• Kevin Walter, HOU (Rank: WR100) — Done nothing to earn the WR2 job; Jones + McCardell could steal touches
• Ben Troupe, TEN (Rank: TE26) — Invisible this preseason + Scaife looking to be top TE target
• Jermaine Wiggins, JAX (Rank: Unranked) — Released by Jacksonville

Note: As you can see, there is a lot of uncertainty in the AFC South, particularly as it relates to the receiving corps in Houston and Tennessee

Let’s hear your thoughts…where do you agree? Where do you disagree and why?

As the preseason game action heats up, I always notice that fantasy owners scramble to update their projections and rankings with each passing box score. The Cowboys backup tight end scored 2 TDs, bump him up by 100 yards and a score! It’s natural, but sometimes it can be a really bad mistake.

Let’s take a look at the 2006 RB preseason stats to flesh out what I mean:

• Travis Henry & Chris Brown, TEN: Brown averaged 3.5 yards per rush while Henry averaged only 3.1 yards per rush. It seemed like a tried and true RBBC with neither being worth all that much; yet Henry went on to be a solid fantasy contributor and bonafide Titans’ workhorse.
• Chester Taylor, MIN: Taylor logged 37 preseason carries but only averaged 2.6 yards per rush. Many began to wonder if he wasn’t equipped for an every down role and fantasy owners let him fall too far. They also wasted picks on “upside” guys like Mewelde Moore and Ciatrick Fason.
• Wali Lundy, HOU: Lundy ran for 143 yards (5.5 yards per rush) and went from a fantasy non-factor to a mid round “sleeper” pick in a matter of weeks. Although Lundy started the season, visions that he would be the next Willie Parker went by the wayside and Lundy found his way to fantasy benches and/or waiver wires.

I’m not saying that fantasy stats don’t matter, let’s be clear. But what I’m saying is that they should, in no way, supersede the other analysis you’ve done for months in preparation for your drafts. As important as their box scores are whether they’re running with the first team? Are they healthy? Is their supporting cast healthy? Do they have history of performing above/below preseason levels?

It’s OK to get excited about what you see in the preseason, but only if it helps you gain clarity on a situation you weren’t sure about beforehand.

Following up on Will Grant’s post about what to look for during the preseason games, I thought I’d post a link to the NFL’s pre-season television schedule. This week we have five games on tap:

• Thu., Aug. 9 Indianapolis at Dallas FOX (8 p.m.)
• Fri., Aug. 10 Buffalo at New Orleans CBS (8 p.m.)
• Sat, Aug. 11 Washington at Tennessee NFLN (8 p.m.)
• Sun, Aug. 12 Seattle at San Diego NBC (8 p.m.)
• Mon, Aug. 13 Denver at San Francisco ESPN (8 p.m.)

Below are a few story lines of interest to fantasy owners regarding the above games.

On Thursday, we’ll get a glimpse of Tony Romo’s progress entering his second year as the starter for Dallas (likely we’ll see very little of Peyton Manning, Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne). Friday will give us an idea how resilient the Saints’ first team is this year after their embarrassment at the hands of “Blitzburgh” during the Hall of Fame game. Saturday, young guns Jason Campbell and Vince Young will be under the microscope of fantasy owners everywhere - who has made strides in his development so far? Will Young throw another punch with his throwing hand? Stay tuned, sports fans! Deion Branch has been enjoying his first full training camp with the Seahawks - can he and Matt Hasselbeck form a strong #1 tandem (replacing the Hasselbeck/Darrell Jackson connection), starting on Sunday? Is D.J. Hackett actually getting pushed by Nate Burleson, or was that a false camp rumor? On Monday, we’ll see if Jay Cutler is simpatico with Javon Walker and Daniel Graham, and who will line up as the team’s #2 WR. Alex Smith enters the game without his top RB, Frank Gore - how will the 49ers adjust their attack to compensate for the absent (broken hand) Gore?

Don’t you just love football season? Get ready to rummmbllle fantasy owners everywhere - the game is BACK ON!

Today on The Audible, Cecil Lammey and Sigmund Bloom discuss the NFL with Special Guest Adam Caplan, Senior NFL reporter for Scout.com. Topics include the role Lorenzo Booker will play in Miami, the expansion draft, when will Laurence Maroney be full strength, Kevin Jones and the dreaded Lisfranc injury, the 2007 prospects of Matt Schaub, can LenDale White become a feature back, plus more!

LISTEN NOW!

Continuing in the series, here is a look at the pass distributions for the AFC South teams. For a quick orientation, see this post.

          ==== WR =====|=== TE ===|=== RB ==
TM   YR     1  2  3  T |  1  2  T |  1  2  T
============================================
ten 2004 | 32 30  7 70 |  8  5 17 |  4  4 14
    2005 | 20  8  8 49 | 14 14 36 |  9  3 15
    2006 | 27 17 14 68 | 14  6 22 |  5  3 11

          ==== WR =====|=== TE ===|=== RB ==
TM   YR     1  2  3  T |  1  2  T |  1  2  T
============================================
jax 2004 | 35 16  8 70 |  5  3 13 | 10  5 17
    2005 | 31 20 13 77 |  5  4 10 |  7  2 13
    2006 | 21 20 17 60 | 12  4 17 | 14  8 23

          ==== WR =====|=== TE ===|=== RB ==
TM   YR     1  2  3  T |  1  2  T |  1  2  T
============================================
hou 2004 | 32 18 12 73 |  5  1  6 | 17  2 21
    2005 | 26 18 16 69 |  6  1  8 | 13  7 23
    2006 | 38 18  5 63 | 12  4 18 |  7  4 19

          ==== WR =====|=== TE ===|=== RB ==
TM   YR     1  2  3  T |  1  2  T |  1  2  T
============================================
ind 2004 | 26 24 23 72 |  9  7 16 | 10  1 11
    2005 | 27 25 13 71 | 12  5 18 |  8  2 11
    2006 | 31 30  2 65 |  9  8 22 |  7  6 13