In Bill Simmons’ recent chat, he indicated that he’s getting closer to selecting his sleeper team for the 2007 season. Given how much a team’s surprise success can create unexpected stat boosts for its players (or is that vice versa?), it seems as though it would behoove us as fantasy players to isolate the teams that could beat expectations and make the playoffs this year.
Sifting through 32 teams can be an intimidating task, though, so we should probably apply some rules to our endeavor. With luck, they’ll help us narrow down the ‘07 sleeper candidates.
Rule #1: No playoff teams from last year.
Seems obvious.
Eliminated: Patriots, Jets, Ravens, Colts, Chargers, Chiefs, Eagles, Giants, Cowboys, Bears, Saints, and Seahawks.
Rule #2: The sleeper can’t be the common sleeper pick on everyone’s radar.
This is Simmons’ rule, and I like it.
Remember when the Dennis Erickson Seahawks were everyone’s preseason darling in the late ’90s? Pundits couldn’t wait to predict a wild card spot for them in ‘97, and again in ‘98, thanks to their strength on paper. Unfortunately, paper was about all those teams were worth.
Every year, a common buzz seems to coalesce around a few “up-and-comers,” but they’re usually red herrings. And if you doubt this rule, I have two words for you from preseason last year: Miami. Dolphins.
Eliminated: 49ers. It’s early, but I think Simmons rightly predicts them to be the most common sleeper pick this year. They have a stud RB in Gore, added a splashy free agent in Clements, and beefed up their WR corps with a well-known vet. Plus, Patrick Willis will make jaws drop in camp. In summary, folks will be talking up the Niners all preseason. But the big sleeper is rarely who you automatically suspect, and I’m not yet sold on any team putting its destiny in the wee hands of Alex Smith.
Rule #3: The sleeper should have a coaching staff in its first or second year.
Think back to the Saints and Jets last year, the Bears in 2005, the Falcons in 2004, the Panthers in 2003 — each of those teams had a dynamic young coaching regime in its first or second year with the team, and they all surpassed expectations with a playoff birth.
Why would this matter? Well, a new coaching staff gets to break out a bunch of new tricks with a bunch of new toys, creating player+play combos most defenses won’t have seen on film. After a few years with the same coaches and starters, many (though obviously not all) teams become a bit easier to figure out, but the first couple seasons are harder to scout.
Eliminated: Bengals, Browns, Titans, Jaguars, Broncos, Redskins, Panthers, and Buccaneers. Folks may lament the Redskins’ place on this list, what with Jason Campbell poised to make the leap, but perhaps this list is telling us the game has truly passed by Joe Gibbs. If they make a coaching switch next year, though, they could be primed for sleeper status.
Rule #4: It helps if there’s a QB who’s also in his first or second year with the team.
This is far from a hard and fast rule, given the success of last year’s Jets with Pennington and the 2004 Falcons with Vick, but some of the biggest surprises do seem to come when a new sheriff sets up shop under center. For example, recall what Brees added to the Saints last year, or how Delhomme’s gutsy mentality rubbed off on the ‘03 Panthers.
If you think about it, this fits with the coaching theory above. If a team has a relatively new offensive scheme *and* a new QB running the show, the added unpredictability really ratchets up the difficulty for defensive coordinators and their game-planning.
It’s also interesting to me how many of the teams eliminated here have some other red flags. Folks may disapprove of the Bills not making to the lightning round, but I’d have a tough time imagining Dick Jauron scheming his way into the playoffs in the AFC. The Falcons still have Vick for the moment, but would you want to turn your team over to either him or Joey “Everyone deserves an 8th chance” Harrington? The most disappointing eliminatee is St. Louis, a team that does seem to have a lot going for it. But they might also be too obvious and could be considered a target for Rule #2 anyway.
Eliminated: Bills, Steelers, Packers, Falcons, and Rams.
Final Pool
This leaves us with 6 teams: the Dolphins, Texans, Raiders, Vikings, Lions, and Cardinals. These teams missed the playoffs, don’t make many early sleeper lists, aren’t commonly predicted to make the postseason this year, and have a new (or new-ish) coaching staff and QB. I’m also laying decent odds that a surprise playoff team or two is located within that list.
If I had to pick *the* sleeper out of the group, I’d dismiss the Dolphins because a creaky Trent Green and that line are a putrid combination. Similarly, I’d avoid the Vikings because Tarvaris Jackson’s too raw and Brooks Bollinger is still Brooks Bollinger (I like them for 2008, though). The Raiders are interesting and may do a fine imitation of the 2006 Titans with a big push at the end of the season, but the AFC West is a tough place to make the playoffs in a transition year.
That leaves us with the Lions, Texans, and Cardinals. The Lions added the baddest rookie in the land in Calvin Johnson and have a QB and WR already predicting a big year for the team. I’m inclined to say they’ll lead the league in scoring, but their defensive backfield’s depressingly shallow. They may be the most exciting 8-8 team in the league, but their pseudo-arena style may mean whoever gets the ball last wins.
And then there were two.
The Texans are intriguing. Their division’s taken a big step back — the Titans lost a lot of talent, Jacksonville’s created an absurd QB quagmire, and even the Colts just lost Tarik Glenn. Meanwhile, Matt Schaub has all the makings of a big story in 2007. Imagine if Vick takes a leave of absence and Schaub tears it up in Houston; it’ll be high drama coast to coast. He’s got Andre Johnson and a sold backfield of Ahman Green and the resurgent Ron Dayne to help him, and the line’s sack numbers may have been as much a product of David Carr’s failures as their own. Kubiak’s supposedly a clever coach, as well, though the stain of his unconditional support for Carr just last season colors that rep a bit. Could the Texans be the sleeper?
Yes, they certainly could, and they are definitely my runner-up in the category. But even with the recent additions of Amobi Okoye and Mario Williams up front, I have serious doubts about this team’s ability to pressure any QB. One of those two young linemen is going to have to become a huge impact player for the Texans to be able to get key stops on passing downs. Unfortunately, Williams’ lack of explosiveness makes him look more like a run-stopper than sack generator to me, and it’s hard for your best sack man to come from the DT position Okoye will be manning. Plus, Houston’s DBs are hardly the lock-down sort, meaning any blitzes will expose a below-average unit to big plays.
Meanwhile, the Cards added one of the more underrated free agents to their last line of defense, FS Terrence Holt. Paired with superstar safety Adrian Wilson, Holt will allow the Cards to bring all kinds of blitzes via Clancy Pendergast’s creative schemes. I also like Alan Branch to make a Casey Hampton-esque impact up front. Offensively, I have my doubts about Edge’s burst, but Bloom and others are convinced he’s got at least another year in him. If so, that bodes well because we all know Leinart and the wideouts are primed to be almost as scary as Detroit’s crew. If that wasn’t enough, Ken Whisenhunt has a nice track record with young QBs and seems like just the type of coach to replicate Sean Payton’s success last year.
But what about the Cards’ terrible o-line, you ask? Well, that’s where the secret sleeper weapon of 2007 comes into play. And no, I’m not talking about big Levi Jones, who’ll certainly help. The secret weapon is none other than Russ Grimm, the new line coach in Arizona. Any time a team’s primary weakness receives a coaching boost from one of the best minds in the league at that position, it helps. Pittsburgh players of recent years revere Grimm, and I have a feeling he’ll patch that line right up, giving Leinart time to do some serious damage. That means if Branch, Dansby, and those excellent safeties put up any fight at all, the Cards could walk away with the division folks are ready to hand to the Seahawks, 49ers, or Rams.
Of course, that’s just my opinion. I look forward to seeing your sleepers in the comments.
Huh. OK, well OL Duane Brown is a tackle prospect from Virginia Tech. The Texans moved down in the draft hoping a player they coveted would fall; but very few thought THIS was the prospect. Duane Brown was, by most accounts, projected as a mid-2nd rounder or 3rd rounder. Although the Texans see him as a tackle, some talent evaluators believe his future is as a guard. He’s tough, but his footwork isn’t consistent nor does he have great lateral movement.
Albert Hayneworth may be a controversial player and, from a personality standpoint, may not be the optimal guy to have in the locker room. That said, the Titans are faced with a difficult decision because Hayneworth’s on-field value is nearly unmatched at any position this offseason. At 6′6″, 320 pounds and only 26 years old, Haynesworth is the kind of defensive tackle that never sees the light of free agency. Expect the Titans to tag Haynesworth in order to continue negotiations on a long-term deal. It’s not out of the question the team would trade him, but not without significant value in return.
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