Now that the NFL Draft is in the books, we are standing on the cusp of the NFL preseason. During the coming weeks, rookie mini-camps will grind into gear and hard-core fantasy owners will start the process of evaluating this year’s draft picks potential for “instant impact” during 2008. In redraft fantasy football leagues, one key requirement for the kind of production that fantasy owners crave is opportunity. A player like TE Martellus Bennett (a 2nd-round selection by Dallas) may have all the talent in the world, but his chances for a meaningful 2008 season in fantasy terms are very slight due to being buried on the depth chart behind All-Pro TE Jason Witten.

The below is a preliminary list of the top rookie prospects for redraft fantasy leagues, given their new NFL homes.

Rookie Running Backs

The running back position is where the fantasy gems among the rookies are most likely to be found. While it is true that for every Adrian Peterson (Minnesota) or Joseph Addai one can point at, there are also players like J.J. Arrington or Chris Perry who serve as a counter-examples, it is also true that running backs tend to make the quickest transition to playing at the NFL level. A fantasy owner is most likely to find an “instant impact” player among the rookie running backs in any given calendar year.

Jonathan Stewart is probably the best bet at running back to generate fantasy impact during his rookie season. He is the sort of running back that the Panthers’ coaching staff prefers, and they have been retooling their offensive line for a power running attack - Stewart fits the mold that Carolina is built to utilize. DeAngelo Williams simply isn’t the player the coaching staff wants to rely on as their #1 RB - he is better suited to a change-of-pace, 3rd-down role in their scheme. Stewart figures to have plenty of touches on the ball with the Panthers this year.

Darren McFadden is a boom-or-bust type prospect. Yes, he has the type of speed and top gear that make him a threat to go to the house on every down, and he projects to be the starter with the Raiders (assuming his contract negotiations go well and he avoids a JaMarcus Russell-type holdout scenario). However, there is a crowded RB stable in Oakland, with Justin Fargas coming off a 1000+ yard season - if McFadden struggles with the pro game, he may not get many chances to redeem himself.

Kevin Smith lands with the Lions, who really like his game and seem to be indicating that the starting job is his to lose during 2008. We’ll see if their actions match their draft-day rhetoric - but Tatum Bell hasn’t looked like the answer since he arrived in Detroit, and as of today, he is the only other back of note on the team. If Smith impresses in training camp it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him starting for the Lions in September.

Matt Forte comes into a by-committee backfield situation, with both Cedric Benson and Adrian Peterson grinding out 3.4 yards per carry last season. Peterson was far more productive than Benson in the passing game (51/420/0 receiving vs. 17/123/0) and actually led the team in total yardage and fantasy points at the RB position last year. Benson has greatly underperformed his draft slot (1st round -4th pick in 2005) and may find himself riding the pine if Forte proves that he outperform Benson during training camp.

Rashard Mendenhall is likely to be Willie Parker’s primary backup for this year, but given Parker’s difficulty at the goal-line last year (321/1316/2 rushing), Mendenhall could find a role as the Steelers’ goal-line back (Najeh Davenport gained 107/499/5 rushing and 18/184/2 as the Steelers’ big back/change of pace back last year). If Mendenhall seals the #2 job with Pittsburgh, he could have value in basic scoring leagues (any league where TD production is the primary scoring criteria).

Felix Jones joins fellow rookie Tashard Choice as the new backups to Marion Barber III. Barber looks set to carry the majority of the load for Dallas, but Jones’ outside speed will give him a shot to earn playing time as the 3rd down back/passing down back - depending on how quickly Jones picks up the Cowboys’ offense and learns to pick up the blitz.

Rookie Wide Receivers

Second to the running backs, rookie WRs occasionally step into the NFL and make fantasy owners’ seasons. The most obvious example of this phenomenon would be Randy Moss’s first incredible season (69/1313/17) with Minnesota (he was the #1 fantasy WR as a rookie) - Larry Fitzgerald’s 58/780/8 as a rookie was also pretty outstanding for a rookie WR (30th best fantasy WR during 2004). However, it is far more often the case that rookie WRs bust (especially in their first season of NFL action). The last time I fell hard for a rookie WR’s potential, I ended up having Rashaun Woods among my preseason top 36 fantasy prospects - only to watch him fail miserably at the NFL level. Now-a-days, it is my rule of thumb that exactly zero rookie WRs land among my top 40 or so fantasy prospects until they have proven their skills extensively in training camp and preseason games - and even then I tend to be conservative about drafting them early - I would urge fantasy owners to be very leery of rookie wideouts.

James Hardy appears to have landed in the best situation among the draftees, with a legitimate shot at capturing the #2 wide receiver position on the Buffalo Bills. Other than Lee Evans, the Bills’ WRs generated 1 receiving TD last year (Josh Reed was #2 in yardage with 51/578/0) - not exactly what the coaching staff was looking for, to say the least. However, don’t go overboard with your enthusiasm for Hardy - the Bills were 30th in the NFL when it came to passing offense, so his ceiling as the #2 WR (if he gets that far) is relatively low compared to a player on a franchise like New England.

DeSean Jackson figures to be in the mix in Philadelphia, but the team spreads the ball around quite a bit - the 2nd best receiver on the Eagles over the past two years failed to get over 800 yards receiving or score more than 5 times, and the players at WR3 and below are non-factors in fantasy terms.

Devin Thomas may challenge for playing time in Washington, but with a developing young QB in Jason Campbell and an entrenched #1 WR in Santana Moss combined with a high-scoring TE hogging red-zone chances (Chris Cooley has 6 or more TDs in each of his first 4 seasons) - Thomas will have significant obstacles to overcome before he starts putting up the kind of statistics that make fantasy owners excited.

Malcolm Kelly - see Devin Thomas above.

Jerome Simpson landed with Cincinnati while the Bengals are searching for a replacement WR3 - if he can wow the coaching staff in training camp and sew up the WR3 spot, he could put up decent numbers now and then during 2008.

Rookie Quarterbacks

Excepting Peyton Manning , the exception who proves the rule, no rookie QB has been a fantasy standout during recent memory - even Dan Marino took one season to get up to speed before exploding during his second campaign way back in 1984. Unless you are convinced that Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco or any of the other draftees this year are of the caliber of a Peyton Manning or a Dan Marino, you should probably pass on them during your redraft league’s annual draft.

Matt Ryan will likely get his chance to start during 2008, perhaps early on in the season if Chris Redman falters during training camp. Ryan is sure to suffer typical rookie growing pains once he does get into the lineup, so he probably won’t have any games worth mentioning until very late in the season, if then.

Joe Flacco may be the heir apparent in Baltimore, but he’s currently buried behind Kyle Boller and Troy Smith (last year’s draft pick at the position). The Ravens got burned the last time they rushed a QB into the starting lineup (witness Boller’s checkered career with Baltimore) - they aren’t likely to make the same mistake with Flacco. He’ll likely carry the clipboard after preseason, with occasional spot duty in blow out wins or losses.

Rookie Tight Ends

Rookie tight ends are very seldom worth drafting - Tony Gonzalez scored 2 TDs in his rookie campaign (33/368/2), as did Antonio Gates (24/389/2), as did the ultra-hyped rookie TE of 2007, Greg Olsen (39/391/2). The three above examples are actually best-case scenarios for the vast majority of rookie TEs - the position is very demanding at the pro level and it simply takes more than 1 training camp and regular season to absorb all the duties that are asked of a pro TE. Among the 2008 draftees, expect 300+ and 1-2 TDs to be a ceiling when you are crafting your projections.

New Seahawk John Carlson will battle Jeb Putzier for playing time during 2008, and could end up starting for Seattle sooner rather than later. He is the TE prospect who landed in the best situation (such as it is) from the fantasy perspective.

Dustin Keller arrives to the Jets via a first round pick, but he’ll have to earn his way into the starting lineup - solid-but-unspectacular Chris Baker has scored 4 TDs in 2 of the past 4 seasons, and posted 41/409/3 last year. Keller will have the opportunity to learn the position from Baker and another veteran TE, Bubba Franks, this season. Keller is a guy to watch as the year progresses - he might be worth a flyer in free agency late in the season (just before fantasy playoffs) if he manages to earn playing time during 2008.

The NFL Draft is an exciting time of year for football junkies, but it is just the beginning of a long process. Don’t let your draft weekend enthusiasm drown out your better judgement as you prepare your preliminary draft lists for 2008. We have yet to get an inkling who among the draftees will fulfill their promise, which ones will outperform expectations - and how many will go bust in their first season as a pro football players.

2.32: Phillip Merling, DE, Miami Dolphins

Pass rusher had some injury woes but was effective off the edge when healthy. Has the size (6′5″, 272 pounds) that Bill Parcells covets. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.33: Donnie Avery, WR, St. Louis Rams

Quite a surprise. The first WR off the board is a small, uber fast guy considered a mid round pick by most scouts. Hard to believe he can replace Isaac Bruce without a few years of seasoning. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.34: Devin Thomas, WR, Washington Redskins (via Oakland through Atlanta)

The Redskins draft the WR many expected to be first off the WR board. Devin Thomas only had one big year at Michigan but has great size (6′2″, 215 pounds) and can also help as a kickoff returner. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.35: Brandon Flowers, CB, Kansas City Chiefs

If Flowers ran a tenth of a second faster, he would’ve been a mid 1st rounder. Great choice for the rebuilding Chiefs. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.36: Jordy Nelson, WR, Green Bay Packers (via New York Jets)

Another surprising WR selection. Was WR really a need for Green Bay with Driver, Jennings and Jones on the roster? Should help on special teams right away. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.37: Curtis Lofton, LB, Atlanta Falcons

Tackling machine, ideally suited for the inside where he can flow downfield to the ball. Not someone good in space and must be put in the right scheme to succeed. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.38: John Carlson, TE, Seattle Seahawks (via Baltimore)

Mike Holmgren called this a need, and the ‘hawks felt Carlson was a perfect fit for their West Coast offense. Carlson put up big numbers with Brady Quinn under center, as a reminder. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.39: Chilo Rachal, OG, San Francisco 49ers

Rachal gets knocked for not being a great athlete, but he’s technically sound and has a mean streak. As long as he plays inside and isn’t asked to pull and extend to the 2nd level much, he could be a starter immediately. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.40: Tracy Porter, CB, New Orleans Saints

Ironic that the Saints draft a cornerback with the 40th pick; considering there were rumors all week that the 40th pick would be part of a package to acquire Eagles CB Lito Sheppard. Porter is good at tracking the ball but isn’t a sure tackler or much help supporting the run.

2.41: James Hardy, WR, Buffalo Bills

The Bills landed the top corner in the draft last round and, in my opinion, the best receiver in the draft at 2.41. Hardy is a big guy who isn’t afraid of contact. He goes up for the ball and runs good routes; which helps offset a lack of breakaway speed.

2.42: Eddie Royal, WR, Denver Broncos

Royal is one of a handful of receivers who also project as solid returner at the next level. At only 5′8″, 184 pounds, Royal will need to prove he can hold up as a receiver over the course of the season. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.43: Tyrell Johnson, S, Minnesota Vikings (via Carolina through Philadelphia)

Kenny Phillips has the bigger name, but Johnson may have the bigger game. The Vikes continue to bolster their defense with another solid young, physical player. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.44: Matt Forte, RB, Chicago Bears

I’m not crazy about Forte; I don’t believe he’s a special back nor was he the best back left on the board. However, Forte has his supporters and it’s not inconceivable he could earn the starting gig over Cedric Benson sooner rather than later.

2.45: Jordon Dizon, OLB, Detroit Lions

Dizon lacks ideal size and speed; but like many solid NFL linebackers before him, he just makes plays. He’s instinctive and a sound tackler; exactly the kind of guy Rod Marinelli can build around. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.46: Jerome Simpson, WR, Cincinnati Bengals

Further proof that beauty is in the eye of the beholder at WR this year. Simpson wasn’t close to the best WR prospect on the board, but clearly the Bengals felt otherwise. At least, this pick fills a need given the release of Chris Henry and concerns about Chad Johnson’s status.

2.47: Trevor Laws, DT, Philadelphia Eagles (via Minnesota)

The Eagles finally make a pick, and it’s clearly a “best player available” selection. Defensive tackle was hardly a major need, but Laws is a high character, high motor guy who will add depth to an already young tackle rotation.

2.48: Fred Davis, TE, Washington Redskins (via Houston through Atlanta)

The Redskins are committed to getting QB Jason Campbell weapons. First Devin Thomas and now a pass-receiving tight end a few picks later. Davis doesn’t project into an elite tight end, but the Redskins don’t need him to be given the presence of Chris Cooley.

2.49: DeSean Jackson, WR/KR, Philadelphia Eagles

Many Birds fans wouldn’t have complained if Jackson was the pick in the 1st round. So to trade down, grab a 2009 1st rounder as compensation and get DeSean anyway was a coup. He’s tiny (169 pounds) but is blazing fast and unstoppable in the open field. He instantly gives the Eagles the best returner they’ve had in 5 years.

2.50: Calais Campbell, DE, Arizona Cardinals

You don’t find many 6′8″, 280 pound ends; yet Campbell fell into the 2nd round because of an uneven 2007 season. He was a stud in 2006 and, as long as the Cards play him at the right position, should combine with free agent Clark Haggans to improve the Cards pass rush.

2.51: Malcolm Kelly, WR, Washington Redskins

Sure, he’s slower than you would like. But have teams watched this kid play? He’s a polished route runner, has great hands and excellent body control. Very reminiscent of the year Chad Johnson fell because of his slow 40-time; the Skins got a steal.

2.52: Quentin Groves, DE, Jacksonville Jaguars (via Tampa Bay)

The Jags have a stifling defense already, but they aren’t great at putting pressure on opposing QBs. Adding Quentin Groves in the 2nd after taking Derrick Harvey 8th overall goes a long way to changing the Jags pass rush. Groves character issues aside, this was a solid pick.

2.53: Limas Sweed, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers

Some scouts love Sweed, some see him as a bust. At 53rd overall, the Steelers aren’t risking a lot financially to find out if he’s the next Plaxico Burress. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.54: Jason Jones, DE, Tennessee Titans

Jones could replace Antwan Odom right away, but he’s a bit raw to expect that. Eventually the Titans see Jones as a capable 2-way end in their 4-3 defense. His skill set is more suited to defensive tackle, but his size projects him as an end.

2.55: Ray Rice, RB, Baltimore Ravens (via Seattle)

Ray Rice is a local product who was wildly productive as the main ball carrier for Rutgers. While he lacks prototypical size, his low center of gravity and style make him more than capable of being an every down back if needed.

2.56: Brian Brohm, QB, Green Bay Packers (via Cleveland)

Now that’s kind of surprising. Or is it? The Pack took Aaron Rodgers in the 1st when Brett Favre was under center, so why wouldn’t they take the most accurate QB prospect in the 2nd round given Rodgers inexperience? Worst case, he’s a backup for a few years. Best case, he outplays Rodgers and ends up starting in a year or two.

2.57: Chad Henne, QB, Miami Dolphins (via San Diego)

How about that? It looks like Jake Long may be blocking for Chad Henne for a few more years. Another smart pick. He could easily outplay Beck and McCown to win the job; at the very lesaet he’s a big armed, young backup for a good price.

2.58: Dexter Jackson, WR/KR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (via Jacksonville)

This was a reach pick. While Jackson is another potentially dangerous return man; he needs a lot of maturing as a route runner before he can reasonably play WR on a regular basis. Blistering speed (4.33) though and dangerous in the open field.

2.59: Mike Pollak, OG/C, Indianapolis Colts

A classic Colts pick. Their only 1st day pick and it’s a fundamentally sound center that they project as a starting offensive guard for now and possibly a replacement for Jeff Saturday later. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.60: Patrick Lee, DB, Green Bay Packers

A hard worker, Lee may someday start at corner but not for a few seasons. In the meantime, he can be a force on special teams and perhaps play nickel back particularly in run support situations. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.61: Martellus Bennett, TE, Dallas Cowboys

I like this pick more than most. For my money, Bennett was the top TE in this draft. He’s huge, is a good blocker who can become great, and should be a key red zone target given his height and willingness to go up for the ball. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.62: Terrence Wheatley, CB, New England Patriots

The Pats always seem to find value and this was no exception. Wheatley is a legitimate shutdown cover corner who, were it not for myriad injuries in college, would’ve been in the hunt for a top 15 selection. Either way, he’ll help the Pats on defense and special teams.

2.63: Terrell Thomas, CB, New York Giants

Thomas is the 217th USC Trojan to be drafted in the first two rounds (not really, just feels that way). If the Giants view him as a corner, I don’t like this pick. But if they’re going to try to convert him to safety; where his deficiencies can be obfuscated somewhat, the choice makes more sense.

RB Rashard Mendenhall was having a tough Day One; having been one of the obvious players to drop today. Thought to be the 2nd RB off the board by many, he comes off the board after McFadden, Stewart and Jones. Making matters worse for him, he’s joining a team that has a young franchise runner in place in Willie Parker. However, Parker isn’t the biggest guy and the Steelers have use for a backup of Mendenhall’s caliber.

Fantasy Impact: Parker got hurt last year and the Steelers didn’t really have an answer. This solves that worry and, also gives them a potential 20-carry back in a year or two depending on whether they want to commit financially to Parker a few years down the line. Given his size and running style, Mendenhall could play a key role in short yardage and at the goal line, which would somewhat diminish Willie Parker’s fantasy value.

Big Ben Roethlisberger signed an 8-year, $102mm extension today that guarantees him $36mm. Considering Big Ben is taking the same guaranteed money that Peyton Manning and Michael Vick got a few years ago, it’s hard to argue the Steelers are paying him too much. Big Ben has not only brought a SB title to Pittsburgh, but is coming off his best season:

• 264 completions
• 404 attempts
• 65.3% completion
• 3,154 yards
• 32 TDs
• 11 INTs
• 104.1 paser rating

Personally, I think this is a smart deal. Locking up a young franchise passer is smart business. Given the inflation we’re seeing in salaries this year, they could’ve paid him a lot more and set a new market for franchise QBs, but instead basically met the pre-existing market. That’s good business.

But looking a little deeper, should Steelers fans be worried about this contract? Ben becomes the 7th QB in NFL history awarded a $100mm contract. In each prior case, the team has fared better BEFORE the contract than after.

Player	Name	Year	Win%Pre	Win%Post
Brett	Favre	2001	63.9%	61.6%
Drew	Bledsoe	2001	50.5%	0.0%
Donovan	McNabb	2002	55.6%	66.2%
Daunte	Culpepper	2003	48.8%	45.9%
Michael	Vick	2004	65.3%	48.5%
Carson	Palmer	2005	60.7%	46.9%

In all but Donovan McNabb’s case, the QBs landing $100mm contracts have led their teams to a worse winning percentage after the fact. In three cases, the players winning percentage has plummeted, including the three most recent $100mm QBs (Culpepper, Vick, Palmer).

Is this just a random statistical quirk? Probably so. Drew Bledsoe got hurt and only played two games for New England after signing his extension. In Mike Vick and Carson Palmer’s cases, their team’s defenses have fallen off a cliff coincident with their new contracts. But can that not be blamed, at least in part, to the fact these new $100mm deals removed some of the flexibility GMs had in strengthening other parts of the team? Perhaps.

Either way, for now I still say the Steelers were smart to give Big Ben the big extension. Now if the Steelers end up losing more games than they have to date with Big Ben under center, we can revisit this phenomenon more intently.

Baltimore Ravens

LB Terrell Suggs

Suggs has five years in the league yet won’t turn 26 until October. Although his sack totals were down this year (just 5), he’s a proven play-maker who is many years younger than a typical marquee free agent. The Ravens can ill afford to let him leave after losing Adalius Thomas last offseason.

xxxxx

Cincinnati Bengals

DE Justin Smith

Last season the Bengals opted to tag DE Justin Smith despite questions about whether he was an elite defensive end. The logic was that he was a hard worker, and one of the few plus defenders on a defense that needed lots of improvement. Fast forward to this offseason and reports are again surfacing that Smith may get tagged; which, if true, begs the question: WHY? Smith notched only 2 sacks last year and has never had more than the 8.5 of his rookie season. The Bengals defense was awful last year and is more than one player away. In addition, the team has other major issues at play including: T.J. Houshmandzadeh wants a raise, Chad Johnson isn’t necessarily happy, and the team has other key free agents (Williams, Andrews, Johnson).

Cleveland Browns

The Browns resurgent 2007 brings with it challenges in free agency. RB Jamal Lewis gambled on a one-year deal last year and delivered a monster season which should bring him a market rate, multi-year deal. While Lewis is important to the Browns, his age and career workload likely precludes them from tagging him. The other major free agent is QB Derek Anderson; but Anderson is a restricted free agent so Cleveland has the right to match any offer. As a result, don’t look for the Browns to use either designation.

Pittsburgh Steelers

OG Alan Faneca is the best free agent guard on the market, and has been an important cog in the Steelers offensive machine for years. Yet, I’m not listing him as a potential tag candidate because the Steelers seem ready to let him leave via free agency.

Thought just occurred to me today as I was looking over this weekend’s games and the resulting fantasy rankings:

Three of the four AFC North teams have elite fantasy QBs at the helm right now:

• Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) — 2,020 yards/22 TDs/7 INTs = 3rd ranked QB
• Derek Anderson (CLE) — 2,231 yards/20 TDs/9 INTs = 4th ranked QB
• Carson Palmer (CIN) — 2,464 yards/16 TDs/10 INTs = 7th ranked QB

What’s more surprising, that a division with its history steeped in ball-control, hard-nosed football would have three big-time passers OR that Carson Palmer is the 3rd most productive passer in his own division?

Ed Bouchette wrote an interesting article on LB James Harrison Wednesday, 8/29. It appears that James Harrison has ascended to be the unquestioned starter in Joey Porter’s old spot on the Pittsburgh defense - right outside linebacker.

Harrison is way below the IDP radar right now as he is a career backup to this point in his career, with a mere 17 fantasy points to his credit last year (163rd on the LB board at year’s end). He’s not even ranked on most fantasy LB boards right now.

However, in the article linked above we read:

Into the breach steps James Harrison, a former undrafted rookie who was cut by the Steelers, twice, then cut by Baltimore, then re-signed by the Steelers as an afterthought one week before training camp because Clark Haggans had a broken hand. Not only will he start at right outside linebacker, where Joey Porter and Greg Lloyd played before him, Harrison expects to surpass the productivity of either of them in one season.

‘My personal goal, I want to try to get at least 12 sacks,’ Harrison said yesterday.

If Harrison can approach Porter’s productivity this season, he could perhaps match Porter’s best fantasy season (2002 - 16 games, 61 tackles, 28 assists, 9 sacks, 2 fumble recoveries, 4 interceptions - 122 fantasy points, 14th overall LB that year) or at least land in the top 40 at his position, as Porter did during 2005 (40 tackles, 17 assists, 11 sacks, 4 forced fumbles, 1 fumble recovery, 2 interceptions and 4 passes defensed - 104 fantasy points for 37th LB at year’s end).

Right now you can probably land Harrison deep in your draft and stash him at #5 or #6 LB on your bench. If he lives up to his goals, you’ll have grabbed a productive fantasy LB for a song. If he flops or gets injured, you haven’t invested much anyway - this guy is a high upside, low risk pick at the moment.

Happy Drafting!

The NFL Season is just two weeks away, and Fantasy Football drafts are happening all over the country. My eyes are about to pop out of my head from watching 40+ NFL preseason games either in entirety, in fast forward (stopping to catch several key plays) or even on the NFL.com highlight reel. My two DVRs are jam-packed still, but time is a-wastin’.

With that in mind, I have gone through my offensive player rankings for Footballguys for perhaps the last time before Week 1. For obvious reasons I cannot provide my entire rankings list here (subscriber only content), but I can tell you about a few tweaks that I made. There are several changes across the board, mostly minor upticks and downgrades, but I thought it would help some to know about the major moves I made and why:

Tight Ends:

Take a look here for my overall TE redraft rankings as well as several other Footballguys staff’s opinions.

Tight Ends are often overlooked and discounted as not worth much in Fantasy Football, but certain players can make a key difference and win you several games over the course of a fantasy season. Here at Footballguys we focus on ranking TEs based solely on touchdown and yardage (no points per reception bonuses), so if those come into play in your particular league also keep that in mind. Every point matters.

Based on what I have seen, read and heard over the past few weeks, I have only one player that is really moving up a lot and it shouldn’t surprise you if you read my changes at wide receiver. Pittsburgh is going to throw more this year and I think that benefits not just Santonio Holmes but also Heath Miller. Miller will be going deeper and down the seam more, and I think he could crack the Top 10 TE list for 2007.

Tennessee is struggling to find competent receivers. Last season, Vince Young relied on his two tight ends - Bo Scaife and Ben Troupe - to help him to sustain drives. This year it appears that it is all about Scaife and there are even rumors that Troupe is on the trading block. Target Scaife and move Troupe down your list.

Jacksonville is also a WR nightmare. The TEs are also jumbled, but it got a little clearer when Jermaine Wiggins (former Viking) was released. Marcedes Lewis should take over this position, but I’m still wary about the entire Jaguar passing game.

Green Bay will throw quite a bit this year (big surprise), and Brett Favre still loves Bubba Franks. Donald Lee was supposed to push him out of a job, but Franks never got that memo.

Lastly, many who have followed my writings about later round TEs know that I am a big fan of the Carolina Panthers’ new starter, Jeff King. King was a standout at Virginia Tech, and now he gets his big shot. Carolina has issues in their passing attack and they need a “go to” guy without Keyshawn to move the chains on third down. King can be that guy.

Good luck everyone.

The NFL Season is just two weeks away, and Fantasy Football drafts are happening all over the country. My eyes are about to pop out of my head from watching 40+ NFL preseason games either in entirety, in fast forward (stopping to catch several key plays) or even on the NFL.com highlight reel. My two DVRs are jam-packed still, but time is a-wastin’.

With that in mind, I have gone through my offensive player rankings for Footballguys for perhaps the last time before Week 1. For obvious reasons I cannot provide my entire rankings list here (subscriber only content), but I can tell you about a few tweaks that I made. There are several changes across the board, mostly minor upticks and downgrades, but I thought it would help some to know about the major moves I made and why:

Wide Receivers:

Take a look here for my overall WR redraft rankings as well as several other Footballguys staff’s opinions.

Wide receiver is a tricky position to rank, as here at Footballguys we focus on ranking them based solely on touchdown and yardage (no points per reception bonuses). Still, WRs are valuable and I see a big dropoff after about 20 WRs go off the fantasy draft boards this year. If you require starting three of them or if you get the “PPR” bonus, this is a very important position. Bear in mind that if you start 3 or have a flex position, your fourth (or even fifth) WR will be playing a few weeks for you as a starter. Draft accordingly.

Based on what I have seen, read and heard over the past few weeks, I have only made a few changes in the Top 20. Torry Holt’s knee cannot go unnoticed, so he’s a downgrade for certain. Marques Colston isn’t getting much press either, but he’s also not 100%. With so many options in the Top 20, I want “sure things”, and these guys are less than that at this moment. I’ll target a Roy Williams or a Reggie Wayne instead.

Lee Evans has impressed me, even after his amazing two-83-yard TD game last season. He’ll catch anything you throw deep at him far more often than not, and that’s a guy I want on my fantasy team. T.J. Houshmandzadeh is another top name that could really mean “Championship” for you this fantasy season.

A few other situations have me looking hard at their team’s receivers. Pittsburgh is going to throw more this year and I think that benefits Santonio Holmes more than Hines Ward. In fact, I think Holmes could be the #1 option in that passing game this season. Move Holmes up, Ward down a little.

The Giants will be throwing the ball around, but the question is who will catch it. Everyone seems dinged - from Plaxico Burress (ankle) to Michael Jennings (out for the year) to the return of an older Amani Toomer (torn ACL last year). That tells me to take a look at Steve Smith later in the draft for a guy with upside.

Staying in the NFC East, Terry Glenn is not getting younger either and he is also hurt. Terrell Owens is very very good, but he’s also not built out of steel. Grab Patrick Crayton who could be a starter several times for the Cowboys this season. I’ve already moved him up my draft board (and Glenn down some).

Next up…. Tight Ends.

Continuing on…I thought it might be helpful to give you a few quick hitting comments on which players are rising and falling in MY (i.e., different than Dodds’) projections this preseason.

Up next, the AFC North:

RISING

• Ben Roethlisberger, PIT (Rank: QB10) — Healthy + Weapons + New OC = Top 10 potential
• Brady Quinn, CLE (Rank: QB31) — If he doesn’t start 10+ games, I’ll be shocked
• Jerome Harrison, CLE (Rank: RB60) — 3rd down role emerging
• Braylon Edwards, CLE (Rank: WR20) — Healthy + Focused + Brady Quinn = Top 20 with upside
• Santonio Holmes, PIT (Rank: WR28) — New offense + Experience + Healthy Big Ben = Breakout potential
• Demetrius Williams, BAL (Rank: WR54) — Not a starter…yet
• Tab Perry, CIN (Rank: WR80) — Pushing for WR3 role while Henry is suspended
• Daniel Coats, CIN (Rank: TE43) — Solid camp, TE2 with only Reggie Kelly ahead of him

FALLING

• Charlie Frye, CLE (Rank: QB36) — Looks like the least of two evils for Week One
• Jamal Lewis, CLE (Rank: RB27) — 2 yards and a cloud of dust = uninteresting at current ADP
• Derrick Mason, BAL (Rank: WR40) — Still a starter…but for all 16 games?
• Antonio Chatman, CIN (Rank: WR108) — Struggling for a top 4 position

Let’s hear your thoughts…where do you agree? Where do you disagree and why?

A report by Gerry Dulac in the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette on 8/23/07 indicates the Willie Parker may be losing his lead-blocking FB Dan Kreider as the team dithers between keeping RB Verron Haynes as the 5th RB on the team or retaining Kreider. While Haynes is a valuable special teams player, Parker would prefer to keep his lead-blocking FB in front of him, opening holes to run through:

“I prefer to have a fullback. You always want a lead blocker and someone who takes it in there. And a fullback, they just go and take it in there and block somebody to clear a path. Dan Kreider is a good fullback….He’s like an extra lineman that can run and can move side to side. He’s a great blocker and he takes pride in what he does. It would be kind of disappointing [if he were cut]. It would be surprising. Sometimes you want to stay away from a lot of that, if they cut him. I don’t want to talk about my man like that. He takes pride in what he does and I love what he does.”

If Kreider goes, it will be a result of the ongoing evolution of the Steelers’ offense towards more of a “spread” offense with multiple receivers in the mix, with less power-running plays.

Parker is a very impressive running back who should be able to adapt to whatever curves the coaching staff throws at him, but if Kreider goes it could negatively impact Parker in the red-zone (where spreading the field has little effect on the point of attack from a running back’s perspective - the field in compressed down around the goal-line). Parker went from 5 total TDs in Jerome Bettis’ final year with the team (2005) to 16 TDs last year (13 rushing, 3 receiving). 10 of his rushing TDs last year were from 5 or less yards away from the goal line (21 rushes for 36 yards and 10 TDs, as was 1 of his receiving TDs (check it out for yourself using Doug Drinen’s Data Dominator at Footballguys.com).

That’s a lot of TDs in goal-line situations, folks. Without Dan Kreider leading the way into the end-zone, Parker could see a reduction in his TD output during 2007.

Forewarned is forearmed! Happy Drafting!

LISTEN NOW!
In This Episode: Cecil Lammey and Sigmund Bloom review the QBs of the AFC North in the Preseason Watch List Edition of The Audible. Topics Include: Steve McNair in the twilight of his career, Troy Smiths future in the NFL, Carson Palmer as one of the best in the league, the QB controversy in Cleveland, can Big Ben run a more wide open offense, plus more!

---

LISTEN NOW!
In This Episode: Cecil Lammey, Sigmund Bloom, and Jason Wood review the RBs of the AFC North in the Preseason Watch List Edition of The Audible. Topics Include: how good can Willis McGahee be in Baltimore, will Rudi Johnsons playing time be less with the arrival of Kenny Irons, Jamal Lewis as a Cleveland Brown, how great Willie Parker can be in the new Steelers offense, plus more!

---

LISTEN NOW!
In This Episode: Cecil Lammey, Sigmund Bloom, and Jeff Tefertiller review the WRs of the AFC North in the Preseason Watch List Edition of The Audible. Topics Include: Derrick Mason, Mark Clayton, Ocho Cinco aka Chad Johnson, will TJ Houshmanzadeh stay healthy enough to be an elite receiver, Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow, Hines Ward, Santonio Holmes, plus more!

Last year, Willie Parker devoted himself to running stronger in anticipation of becoming the Steelers short yardage back. He ended up converting 10 of his 21 carries inside the opponent’s five into touchdowns. This year Willie is on a mission to be an everydown back

During a one-on-one drill in which running backs tried to block defensive backs, Parker flattened cornerback Ike Taylor and later frustrated short-tempered safety Tyrone Carter until the whistle blew and the facemask shoving began.

“I’m a lot better than I used to be,” Parker said, “and I’m going to take on anybody who’ll step up.”

And it’s all part of his plan.

With at least three other running backs who could take carries away from Parker, the two-year starter says he’s hoping to spoil their plans by become an every-down back. If he gets his way, no longer will he be replaced on passing downs.

Not now that he can block.

“That’s my motivation,” Parker said, “to be an every-down guy.”

Willie has taken it one step further, saying he wants to be better than Ladainian Tomlinson.

“I want to be better than L.T.,” Parker proclaimed yesterday between the Steelers’ double practices at Saint Vincent College. “L.T. can do all that stuff. He’s like a role model to me. I look up to this guy. I just want to do what he does.”

“I want to do it all,” Parker said. “I wouldn’t be no running back if I say I want to come off the field in certain situations. I want to do all the situations.”

The best part? His coaches don’t think he’s insane:

“L.T.’s had a lot of touches, and if Willie has those kinds of touches, his yards could be the same,” Arians said. “I like the fact he wants to be better. I don’t ever want him on the bench unless he’s tired.”

And, as new running backs coach Kirby Wilson noted, why take your best players out of the game?

“Any time your best player is capable of playing [downs] one through three, you want him out there, especially with all the chips on the line.”

Tomlinson ran for 1,815 yards on 348 carries for the Chargers last season. He also caught 56 passes for 508 yards. Parker caught 31 passes for 222 yards, many on first down. His 16 touchdowns set a Steelers record but were barely half Tomlinson’s total.

Also, if Parker were the third-down back, he’d have more opportunities to run against defenses that are spread out to defend against the pass.

“That’s something I’m beginning to love, it’s something I’m taking a lot of pride in right now,” Parker said of the third-down role. “I want to be on that field catching screens on third down.”

If you have any pick 5th or later, Willie Parker should be your man. I don’t blame you if you take him 4th before “Broken Hand” Gore, or 3rd ahead of “Holdout” Johnson. Getting Parker any later than the 7th pick in your draft is highway robbery - enjoy it if you can.

Continuing in the series, here is a look at the pass distributions for the AFC North teams. For a quick orientation, see this post.

          ==== WR =====|=== TE ===|=== RB ==
TM   YR     1  2  3  T |  1  2  T |  1  2  T
============================================
pit 2004 | 34 24 20 82 |  3  3  6 |  5  3 11
    2005 | 31 18 15 69 | 15  2 17 |  7  4 14
    2006 | 24 20 15 74 | 10  2 12 |  6  5 15

          ==== WR =====|=== TE ===|=== RB ==
TM   YR     1  2  3  T |  1  2  T |  1  2  T
============================================
cle 2004 | 26 18 14 69 |  9  8 19 |  6  3 11
    2005 | 30 15 13 68 | 12  5 17 | 11  2 15
    2006 | 27 15  7 53 | 27  8 35 |  5  3 12

          ==== WR =====|=== TE ===|=== RB ==
TM   YR     1  2  3  T |  1  2  T |  1  2  T
============================================
bal 2004 | 16 15 13 55 | 12  9 30 |  7  5 15
    2005 | 32 14  4 52 | 25  5 31 |  9  6 16
    2006 | 27 21 11 59 | 22  5 27 |  5  4 14

          ==== WR =====|=== TE ===|=== RB ==
TM   YR     1  2  3  T |  1  2  T |  1  2  T
============================================
cin 2004 | 36 28 11 81 |  6  2  9 |  5  2 10
    2005 | 36 24 11 80 |  5  2  8 |  8  2 12
    2006 | 34 27 15 81 |  6  3  9 |  5  3 10