2.32: Phillip Merling, DE, Miami Dolphins

Pass rusher had some injury woes but was effective off the edge when healthy. Has the size (6′5″, 272 pounds) that Bill Parcells covets. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.33: Donnie Avery, WR, St. Louis Rams

Quite a surprise. The first WR off the board is a small, uber fast guy considered a mid round pick by most scouts. Hard to believe he can replace Isaac Bruce without a few years of seasoning. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.34: Devin Thomas, WR, Washington Redskins (via Oakland through Atlanta)

The Redskins draft the WR many expected to be first off the WR board. Devin Thomas only had one big year at Michigan but has great size (6′2″, 215 pounds) and can also help as a kickoff returner. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.35: Brandon Flowers, CB, Kansas City Chiefs

If Flowers ran a tenth of a second faster, he would’ve been a mid 1st rounder. Great choice for the rebuilding Chiefs. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.36: Jordy Nelson, WR, Green Bay Packers (via New York Jets)

Another surprising WR selection. Was WR really a need for Green Bay with Driver, Jennings and Jones on the roster? Should help on special teams right away. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.37: Curtis Lofton, LB, Atlanta Falcons

Tackling machine, ideally suited for the inside where he can flow downfield to the ball. Not someone good in space and must be put in the right scheme to succeed. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.38: John Carlson, TE, Seattle Seahawks (via Baltimore)

Mike Holmgren called this a need, and the ‘hawks felt Carlson was a perfect fit for their West Coast offense. Carlson put up big numbers with Brady Quinn under center, as a reminder. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.39: Chilo Rachal, OG, San Francisco 49ers

Rachal gets knocked for not being a great athlete, but he’s technically sound and has a mean streak. As long as he plays inside and isn’t asked to pull and extend to the 2nd level much, he could be a starter immediately. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.40: Tracy Porter, CB, New Orleans Saints

Ironic that the Saints draft a cornerback with the 40th pick; considering there were rumors all week that the 40th pick would be part of a package to acquire Eagles CB Lito Sheppard. Porter is good at tracking the ball but isn’t a sure tackler or much help supporting the run.

2.41: James Hardy, WR, Buffalo Bills

The Bills landed the top corner in the draft last round and, in my opinion, the best receiver in the draft at 2.41. Hardy is a big guy who isn’t afraid of contact. He goes up for the ball and runs good routes; which helps offset a lack of breakaway speed.

2.42: Eddie Royal, WR, Denver Broncos

Royal is one of a handful of receivers who also project as solid returner at the next level. At only 5′8″, 184 pounds, Royal will need to prove he can hold up as a receiver over the course of the season. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.43: Tyrell Johnson, S, Minnesota Vikings (via Carolina through Philadelphia)

Kenny Phillips has the bigger name, but Johnson may have the bigger game. The Vikes continue to bolster their defense with another solid young, physical player. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.44: Matt Forte, RB, Chicago Bears

I’m not crazy about Forte; I don’t believe he’s a special back nor was he the best back left on the board. However, Forte has his supporters and it’s not inconceivable he could earn the starting gig over Cedric Benson sooner rather than later.

2.45: Jordon Dizon, OLB, Detroit Lions

Dizon lacks ideal size and speed; but like many solid NFL linebackers before him, he just makes plays. He’s instinctive and a sound tackler; exactly the kind of guy Rod Marinelli can build around. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.46: Jerome Simpson, WR, Cincinnati Bengals

Further proof that beauty is in the eye of the beholder at WR this year. Simpson wasn’t close to the best WR prospect on the board, but clearly the Bengals felt otherwise. At least, this pick fills a need given the release of Chris Henry and concerns about Chad Johnson’s status.

2.47: Trevor Laws, DT, Philadelphia Eagles (via Minnesota)

The Eagles finally make a pick, and it’s clearly a “best player available” selection. Defensive tackle was hardly a major need, but Laws is a high character, high motor guy who will add depth to an already young tackle rotation.

2.48: Fred Davis, TE, Washington Redskins (via Houston through Atlanta)

The Redskins are committed to getting QB Jason Campbell weapons. First Devin Thomas and now a pass-receiving tight end a few picks later. Davis doesn’t project into an elite tight end, but the Redskins don’t need him to be given the presence of Chris Cooley.

2.49: DeSean Jackson, WR/KR, Philadelphia Eagles

Many Birds fans wouldn’t have complained if Jackson was the pick in the 1st round. So to trade down, grab a 2009 1st rounder as compensation and get DeSean anyway was a coup. He’s tiny (169 pounds) but is blazing fast and unstoppable in the open field. He instantly gives the Eagles the best returner they’ve had in 5 years.

2.50: Calais Campbell, DE, Arizona Cardinals

You don’t find many 6′8″, 280 pound ends; yet Campbell fell into the 2nd round because of an uneven 2007 season. He was a stud in 2006 and, as long as the Cards play him at the right position, should combine with free agent Clark Haggans to improve the Cards pass rush.

2.51: Malcolm Kelly, WR, Washington Redskins

Sure, he’s slower than you would like. But have teams watched this kid play? He’s a polished route runner, has great hands and excellent body control. Very reminiscent of the year Chad Johnson fell because of his slow 40-time; the Skins got a steal.

2.52: Quentin Groves, DE, Jacksonville Jaguars (via Tampa Bay)

The Jags have a stifling defense already, but they aren’t great at putting pressure on opposing QBs. Adding Quentin Groves in the 2nd after taking Derrick Harvey 8th overall goes a long way to changing the Jags pass rush. Groves character issues aside, this was a solid pick.

2.53: Limas Sweed, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers

Some scouts love Sweed, some see him as a bust. At 53rd overall, the Steelers aren’t risking a lot financially to find out if he’s the next Plaxico Burress. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.54: Jason Jones, DE, Tennessee Titans

Jones could replace Antwan Odom right away, but he’s a bit raw to expect that. Eventually the Titans see Jones as a capable 2-way end in their 4-3 defense. His skill set is more suited to defensive tackle, but his size projects him as an end.

2.55: Ray Rice, RB, Baltimore Ravens (via Seattle)

Ray Rice is a local product who was wildly productive as the main ball carrier for Rutgers. While he lacks prototypical size, his low center of gravity and style make him more than capable of being an every down back if needed.

2.56: Brian Brohm, QB, Green Bay Packers (via Cleveland)

Now that’s kind of surprising. Or is it? The Pack took Aaron Rodgers in the 1st when Brett Favre was under center, so why wouldn’t they take the most accurate QB prospect in the 2nd round given Rodgers inexperience? Worst case, he’s a backup for a few years. Best case, he outplays Rodgers and ends up starting in a year or two.

2.57: Chad Henne, QB, Miami Dolphins (via San Diego)

How about that? It looks like Jake Long may be blocking for Chad Henne for a few more years. Another smart pick. He could easily outplay Beck and McCown to win the job; at the very lesaet he’s a big armed, young backup for a good price.

2.58: Dexter Jackson, WR/KR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (via Jacksonville)

This was a reach pick. While Jackson is another potentially dangerous return man; he needs a lot of maturing as a route runner before he can reasonably play WR on a regular basis. Blistering speed (4.33) though and dangerous in the open field.

2.59: Mike Pollak, OG/C, Indianapolis Colts

A classic Colts pick. Their only 1st day pick and it’s a fundamentally sound center that they project as a starting offensive guard for now and possibly a replacement for Jeff Saturday later. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.60: Patrick Lee, DB, Green Bay Packers

A hard worker, Lee may someday start at corner but not for a few seasons. In the meantime, he can be a force on special teams and perhaps play nickel back particularly in run support situations. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.61: Martellus Bennett, TE, Dallas Cowboys

I like this pick more than most. For my money, Bennett was the top TE in this draft. He’s huge, is a good blocker who can become great, and should be a key red zone target given his height and willingness to go up for the ball. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.62: Terrence Wheatley, CB, New England Patriots

The Pats always seem to find value and this was no exception. Wheatley is a legitimate shutdown cover corner who, were it not for myriad injuries in college, would’ve been in the hunt for a top 15 selection. Either way, he’ll help the Pats on defense and special teams.

2.63: Terrell Thomas, CB, New York Giants

Thomas is the 217th USC Trojan to be drafted in the first two rounds (not really, just feels that way). If the Giants view him as a corner, I don’t like this pick. But if they’re going to try to convert him to safety; where his deficiencies can be obfuscated somewhat, the choice makes more sense.

The Seahawks struck gold a few years ago when they drafted an underappreciated USC defender (Lofa Tatupu). Today, they hope to have done the same, drafting DE Lawrence Jackson at the end of the 1st round; about a round earlier than most expected. Jackson has good size and credentials, but really struggled against double teams and lacks top end speed; which may make it difficult for him to generate a pass rush at the NFL level.

Fantasy Impact: The Seahawks already have a studly fantasy defense; Jackson is more about maintaining the existing level of performance than increasing the ‘hawks pass rush.

Shaun Alexander was given his release today, after 8 years in Seattle. The writing had been on the wall for some time, as the Seahawks went out and signed not one, but two free agent runners this offseason: T.J. Duckett and Julius Jones. Alexander has been synonymous with the Seahawks under Mike Holmgren’s tenure.

Over a 5-year period (2001-2005), Alexander enjoyed one of the most dominant statistical runs in NFL history:

• 1,653 rushes
• 7,504 rushing yards
• 4.54 YPR
• 87 rush TDs
• 183 receptions
• 1,346 receiving yards
• 11 receiving TDs
• 1,473 fantasy points
• 3 Pro Bowls
• 1 All Pro
• 1 NFL MVP

Unfortunately things haven’t been the same since Alexander’s MVP season. Over the last two years, he’s missed 9 regular season games, averaged just 3.6 yards per rush (after never falling below 4.0 in any season prior to 2006), and failed to break the 1,000-yard mark.

So what now? Alexander has expressed an eagerness to test the free agent market for the first time in his career; and there’s little question he’ll have suitors. With the NFL draft looming, expect teams to consider Alexander after they see how their drafts unfold this weekend.

Assessing his options:

1. Sign with a contender
2. Sign with a team desperate for RB help
3. Find a team that fits both criteria

Is Alexander willing to take a backseat or, at the very least, accept a role as part of a committee? Are there any teams that could be considered a) contenders AND b) could possibly use Alexander as their main runner? Let’s take a look at all the teams that finished 0.500 or better in 2007 as a starting point:

• New England Patriots (16-0) — L. Maroney
• Dallas Cowboys (13-3) — M. Barber
• Green Bay Packers (13-3) — R. Grant
• Indianapolis Colts (13-3) — J. Addai
• Jacksonville Jaguars (11-5) — F. Taylor & M. Jones-Drew
• San Diego Chargers (11-5) — L. Tomlinson
• Cleveland Browns (10-6) — J. Lewis
• New York Giants (10-6) — B. Jacobs
• Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6) — W. Parker
• Seattle Seahawks (10-6) — Not applicable for obvious reasons
• Tennessee Titans (10-6) — L. White
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-7) — E. Graham & W. Dunn
• Washington Redskins (9-7) — C. Portis
• Arizona Cardinals (8-8) — E. James
• Houston Texans (8-8) — A. Green & C. Brown
• Minnesota Vikings (8-8) — C. Taylor & A. Peterson
• Philadelphia Eagles (8-8) — B. Westbrook

Realistically, there are three teams out of this group where Alexander could be the main ball-carrier without upsetting the apple cart too much. Of course, in the NFL where parity abounds, there are a number of teams with losing records last year that could contend this season; particularly if they had a better ground game. Here are the bottom ten teams last year in rushing yards:

• Kansas City Chiefs (32nd) – Larry Johnson is under contract, was hurt last year
• Detroit Lions (31st) – Definitely in the market for a RB; will they draft one?
• Chicago Bears (30th) — Benson isn’t guaranteed anything
• Arizona Cardinals (29th) – James is under contract, would Alexander be any better?
• New Orleans Saints (28th) — Bush is there, and McAllister says he’ll be back this season
• San Francisco 49ers (27th) – Frank Gore should be healthy
• Atlanta Falcons (26th) — Signed Michael Turner to a monster deal
• St. Louis Rams (25th) – Steven Jackson is healthy
• Cincinnati Bengals (24th) — Need a runner, unless Rudi Johnson finds a fountain of youth

OK, so where does that leave us? Alexander is very likely going to have to accept a committee situation unless Chicago, Cincinnati or Detroit are willing to commit to him.

Where do YOU think Alexander will land?

The deadline for teams to apply the franchise or transition tag designations ended at 4:30 pm EST yesterday; so now it’s time to recap what happened and evaluate some of the moves (and non-moves).

Twelve (12) teams used the franchise tag designation:

• CB Nmandi Asomugha (Oakland)
• CB Marcus Trufant (Seattle)
• DE Jared Allen (Kansas City)
• DT Albert Haynesworth (Tennessee)
• DT Corey Williams (Green Bay)
• LB Karlos Dansby (Arizona)
• LB Terrell Suggs (Baltimore)
• OT Stacy Andrews (Cincinnati)
• OT Jordan Gross (Carolina)
• S Ken Hamlin (Dallas)
• TE Dallas Clark (Indianapolis)
• TE L.J. Smith (Philadelphia)

Most Surprising Tag: Stacy Andrews

Andrews played quite well last season, but it was his first year as a starter. The Bengals still have Levi Jones and Willie Anderson in the picture; although that may change now that Andrews has been tagged. Given the importance of Carson Palmer and Andrews’ age, the move isn’t a total shocker; although few outside of die hard Bengals fans expected it.

Most Surprising Non-Tag: Randy Moss 

As we discussed last night, not tagging Randy Moss is shocking only if they don’t already have a long-term deal completed; but unannounced until the February 29th start of free agency. We expect he IS under contract, but if this proves untrue, this may be the most shocking non-tag decision of the modern era.

Other Surprising Non-Tags 

• OT Flozell Adams (Dallas) – Adams is no spring chicken, and the Cowboys did use their tag on someone else (Ken Hamlin), but this is a bold move if the Cowboys don’t end up re-signing Adams. He has played at a high level the last few seasons and the team doesn’t have someone of his caliber (or close to it) currently on the roster. Will Jerry Jones be willing to go to battle with a young, unproven tackle in 2008?
• PK Josh Brown (Seattle) — The Seahawks tagged Brown last year and it was thought he could be tagged again this season; but now free agency looms. It’s never an easy decision to let a proven kicker walk, but perhaps they didn’t see the logic in making him the highest paid PK in the league.

Interesting Tag Minutiae

• Exclusive tag versus non-exclusive – As we discussed earlier this week, Nmandi Asomugha was tagged with an exclusive franchise designation, meaning the Raiders paid him more (the average of the 2008 top 5 projected salaries versus the 2007 in a normal tag) in exchange for keeping Asomugha from being able to negotiate with other teams. It’s telling that only one of twelve teams opted to use this tag; as it involves paying a player more yet brings less wiggle room. Why a team would pass up the idea of getting 2 first round picks if a team wants their free agent badly enough is a mystery (the Raiders would still have had the right to match).
• Is Suggs a linebacker or defensive end? — The Baltimore Ravens tagged Terrell Suggs as a linebacker, but he has filed a grievance contending he should be paid as a defensive end. The difference? About $800K for the one-year tender. This matter will be settled shortly (if Suggs lined up more than 50% of the snaps as an end, he’ll get his extra dough), but it’s odd that Suggs, who has gone to the Pro Bowl twice as a LINEBACKER would think of himself otherwise.

Most Likely to Sign a Long-term Deal: Dallas Clark

OK, this is cheating since Clark already signed a 6-year deal to remain with the Colts.

Least Likely to Sign a Long-term Deal:  L.J. Smith

The Eagles remain concerned about Smith’s health and likely won’t agree to a long-term extension without seeing improvement on the field. This is basically a one-year option to retain a talented, system TE in a very weak free agent market for tight ends.

How did we do in our predictions?

We previewed each division and our thoughts on potential tag candidates. Overall, I’d say we did quite well.

• We correctly predicted 9 of 10 ‘definites’; our only whiff was on Randy Moss
• We noted that Flozell Adams and Ken Hamlin were possibilities in Dallas [although we leaned toward Adams]
• We noted that Brown and Trufant were possibilities in Seattle [and leaned toward Trufant]
• We noted DT Corey Williams and WR Bernard Berrian as possible tags [one out of two]
• We suggested that Justin Smith shouldn’t be tagged

Now it’s onto free agency and the NFL draft!
Related Blogs:

• ‘Tis the Season for Tagging
• NFC East Potential Tag Candidates
• NFC North Potential Tag Candidates
• NFC South Potential Tag Candidates
• NFC West Potential Tag Candidates
• AFC East Potential Tag Candidates
• AFC North Potential Tag Candidates
• AFC South Potential Tag Candidates
• AFC West Potential Tag Candidates

Arizona Cardinals

LB Karlos Dansby

The Cardinals have two free agent linebackers that are among the most compelling options in free agency: Karlos Dansby and Calvin Pace. While Pace is talented and someone the Cardinals would like to have back, it’s Dansby that’s almost assuredly going to be tagged because he’s emerging as one of the preeminent defensive playmakers in the NFC.

     
St. Louis Rams

The Rams have a handful of free agents but none that warrant either the franchise or transition tag designation.

San Francisco 49ers

GM Scott McCloughan has gone on record saying the team has no intentions of using the franchise tag on any of its key free agents. The team has a few key free agents it would do well to retain (e.g., Isaac Sopaoga and Larry Allen) but neither are worth the kind of money a franchise designation would incur.

Seattle Seahawks

Option 1: PK Josh Brown

The Seahawks don’t want to lose their star place kicker and, as a result, may tag him again. Recall that Browns was the team’s franchise player last season, but the team was unable to come to terms on a multi-year deal. Given the modest differential between the top paid kickers and the middle-of-the-road alternatives, the Seahawks would be foolish to let Brown enter free agency; either they will sign him long-term over the next week or he’ll get tagged because…

Option 2: CB Marcus Trufant

The ‘hawks don’t want to be in the position of having to let Marcus Trufant hit the open market. Trufant is one of the best young corners in the league and, were he to hit free agency, could potentially garner the kind of monster offer Nate Clements received from San Francisco last season. Our bet is that Seattle comes to terms with Brown on a deal in the next few days, allowing them to tag Trufant.

While looking at some stats on Footballguys.com, there is a feature that has the matchup data for the last four weeks. This is a great tool for gauging which offenses or defenses are getting hot at the right time. One thing I noticed was that the Seahawks are the Rodney Dangerfield of the NFL pass defenses.

For the last three games (four weeks), the Seattle Seahawks pass defense has yielded the following stats per game:

• 22 of 38 for 248 yards and NO touchdown passes, along with .3 interceptions a game. For this span, the defense also is averaging a fumble recovery and 2.7 sacks per game.

On the season, the Seahawks defense is only giving up an average of a scoring reception once every two games. That is impressive. The remaining schedule includes great fantasy opportunities against the Rams, Panthers, Ravens, and Falcons. The last three listed are great matchups against average quarterbacks.

D.J. Hackett was on many people’s radar as a potential breakout sleeper this year, but he suffered a high ankle sprain in Week One and looks to be out for a fair amount of time.

“(Hackett is) going to be down for awhile, but I can’t tell you how long,” Seahawks coach Mike Holmgren said. “Those things are very unpredictable. The basketball ankle, everybody by now knows the difference - can be a week or two. This typically with all the ligaments up higher on the shin a little bit, typically is longer - in some instances, can be very, very long. The doctors can’t even tell me right now. Fortunately, our depth at wide receiver is pretty good.”

Hackett’s absence presents an interesting dilemma because both Bobby Engram and Nate Burleson are available on waivers in many leagues.

First things first, Nate Burleson is going to “start” at split end. Burleson practiced at the split end position all preseason, and split time with Hackett many times. Bobby Engram will remain the team’s slot receiver.

But in Seattle’s case, “starting” may not equate to having the most fantasy value. Engram’s role as the slot receiver is misleading because Seattle utilizes 3-WR sets as much as any team in the league, if not more. Engram has a long history with Matt Hasselbeck and is a proven playmaker.

Looking at the Week One target data (sub required) doesn’t really shed much light on the situation:

In most weeks, you can be sure the team won’t target their fullback more than their wideouts, but it’s clear Hasselbeck is going to throw to whoever is open.

With Engram, you can pretty much pencil in 50 receptions and 600 yards if he remains healthy. In a PPR league, you could do worse than have him as your WR3 in bye week situations. In Burleson, you have a much higher upside but also a much lower downside. Is he capable of approximating his 1,000-yard form while in Minnesota? Time will tell.

For my money, Nate Burleson is the guy I would rather roster for the tail end of my roster. When you’re dealing with your 5th or 6th wideout, my personal preference is to swing for the fences. Engram may put up better full year numbers, but he’s not a guy I could see surprising us with a huge season; Burleson could in that offense.

I told you that Charlie Frye simply had no place in Cleveland after Week One’s mid-game benching. The coaches simply couldn’t have put him back on the field and convinced his teammates it was the right move. That’s unfortunate for a young passer who many thought could be as good as some of the other MAC products in recent years (i.e., Ben Roethlisberger, Chad Pennington).

Today, the Browns traded Charlie Frye to the Seattle Seahawks for a 6th round draft pick. Fox Sports’ Jay Glazer makes the point this move will allow Seneca Wallace to play more receiver; which may be the case although I’m not so sure I expect Wallace to give up his QB2 role so easily. From what we’ve seen of Wallace, he’s a better QB than Frye; and at a minimum it will take Frye some time to learn Mike Holmgren’s complicated offense.

Fantasy Relevance:

• QB Brady Quinn gets ever closer to taking over the helm in Cleveland
• QB Charlie Frye has the potential to rebuild confidence in a proven, pressure-free situation
• QB Derek Anderson probably gets a start (or two or three) until the Browns are willing to go with Quinn
• QB/WR Seneca Wallace should see more offensive snaps; perhaps filling the WR3/WR4 role depending on how long D.J. Hackett is out for [which would move up Nate Burleson and Bobby Engram]

Every year, there are a number of second- and third-year defensive ends that break out as they grow into their position physically and mentally. Last year, saw Robert Geathers, Bobby McCray and Aaron Kampman explode onto the NFL scene with double digit sacks. Veteran IDPers know how important it is to find undervalued defensive players late in drafts and on the waiver wire and there looks to be a deeper list of candidates along the defensive line this season than any in recent memory. Don’t forget about Geathers and McCray, who will both have expanded roles this year, but keep a watchful eye on the following candidates to grab late in your draft or as early season free agents.

Stanley McClover (CAR) — McClover declared for the 2006 draft as a college junior and fell to the seventh round due to concerns about his physical maturity. McClover spent most of 2006 on the inactive lists, learning from Julius Peppers and Mike Rucker. After adding 15 pounds to his already considerable edge rushing skills, McClover’s solid offseason may have earned him the majority of snaps in the base defense this year. He may still rotate with Mike Rucker and Charles Johnson, but has big potential if he can get 40 or more snaps a game.

Ray Edwards (MIN) — The Vikings have been waiting for someone to stay healthy and productive long enough to generate a consistent pass rush. Kenechi Udeze hasn’t been able to do it, neither has Erasmus James. Edwards flashed at times last year and has been given the RDE job. His primary responsibility will be rushing the quarterback in Leslie Frazier’s aggressive scheme.

Elvis Dumervil (DEN) — I suggested avoiding Dumervil in IDP leagues in one of my weekly Reading the Defense subscriber columns last season, dismissing him as a situational pass rusher. Two things have changed since then. First, Dumervil gets the benefit of lining up a little wider in Jim Bates’ defensive scheme, which will give him a better angle to get to the quarterback and allow him to maximize his speed rush while minimizing his size disadvantage. Second, the loss of Ebenezer Ekuban will significantly increase Dumervil’s snaps. Dumervil showed his explosiveness in 2006 and may better those numbers in 2007. A must roster in big play leagues.

Darryl Tapp (SEA) — With the mediocre Grant Wistrom and Bryce Fisher finally on the outs, Tapp gets his opportunity in 2007. Another undersized pass rusher who took some extra time to mature, Tapp will start opposite free agent acquisition Patrick Kerney. If he can hold up as an every down player, Tapp also has big pass rush potential.

Justin Tuck (NYG) — Tuck’s value is dependent on Michael Strahan staying home. After getting lost in the depth the Giants had at end over the past two seasons, Tuck is in line for a starting job if Strahan elects not to play with Mathias Kiwanuka moved to SLB. Tuck is a very solid all-around defensive end and opposing offensive coordinators will be focusing on Osi Umenyiora. Tuck is very likely to go undrafted, but needs to be watched very closely if Strahan sits.

Mario Williams (HOU) — Williams is probably still valued by most casual IDP owners on name recognition. He should be firmly on your radar should he slip. Williams wasn’t nearly as bad as the media made him out to be last year when comparing him to Reggie Bush. Struggling through a toe problem, Williams held his own. With his explosiveness likely back in 2007, we may finally see the all-around talent that made him the first overall pick last year.

Jamaal Anderson (ATL) — Anderson is the only 2007 rookie on this list. Rookie defensive ends rarely have an every-down impact but those that do (Hali, Peppers, etc) often fit Anderson’s profile. Impact rookie defensive ends are usually mostly polished players. They have a solid frame to stand up at the point of attack. They have some understanding of how to use their hands and lower body in leverage. They have more than one pass rush move. You’ll find a one-trick pass rusher (Dwight Freeney) or situational stud (Mark Anderson) now and then, but the rookie DEs to target in IDP redrafts are those with the best all-around skill sets.

Continuing on…I thought it might be helpful to give you a few quick hitting comments on which players are rising and falling in MY (i.e., different than Dodds’) projections this preseason.

Up next, the NFC West:

RISING

• Matt Hasselbeck, SEA (Rank: QB11) — Shoulder looks healthy
• Shaun Alexander, SEA (Rank: RB12) — Still not in my top 10, but looks healthy
• Brian Leonard, STL (Rank: RB51) — Catching passes, Scoring TDs = compelling handcuff
• D.J. Hackett, SEA (Rank: WR37) — I wasn’t quickly sold on him, but have slowly become a believer
• Taylor Jacobs, SF (Rank: WR89) — Named WR3 in San Fran
• Marcus Pollard, SEA (Rank: TE17) — Fountain of youth + Holmgren’s praise = decent late round TE2

FALLING

• Torry Holt, STL (Rank: WR7) — Was ranked WR2 but slow recovery of knee = concern
• Nate Burleson, SEA (Rank: WR71) — Probably last man on Earth who believed he could start this year
• Ashley Lelie, SF (Rank: WR108) — Taylor Jacobs now WR3 in SF, Lelie could be waived
• Leonard Pope, ARI (Rank: TE40) — Having trouble holding off Troy Bienemann, ’nuff said

*** Note: As you might gather, my expectations for the Cardinals offense have changed very little this preseason, whereas my expectations for the Seahawks have improved incrementally due largely evidence that Hass and Alexander are healthy

Let’s hear your thoughts…where do you agree? Where do you disagree and why?

While it can be dangerous to read too much into the first “official” depth charts and the fluff pieces beat writers produce early in the preseason, there are always important nuggets to be gleaned from watching preseason games and carefully considering the comments of coaches and coordinators. Here’s a look at some of the changes in the IDP landscape thus far.Winners

• ILB Adalius Thomas — As was reported during OTAs, Thomas lined up all over the field last week but primarily at LILB. That’s often been the better tackling position in the Belichick scheme in recent years. Thomas looked a little uncomfortable inside at times but the combination of increased run support opportunity and pass rush skill may prove a lethal combination in the boxscore.
• DE Robert Geathers — After the team hinted that he would remain in a situational pass rushing role, Geathers played every down with the first team defense. Geathers has flashed decent run supporting skill in prior seasons and has 45 solo, 10 sack potential in the full time role.
• SS Deon Grant — Some felt Grant was in for a big bump in stats after leaving the limiting Jacksonville scheme for the greener Seahawk defense but the news that Grant would take on a more traditional strong safety role should make him an even safer bet for 2007.
• SS Chris Harris — Harris became a must roster after the Panthers acquired him from the Bears as camp began. Harris may not be a special NFL talent, but his IDP value goes from non-existent as a backup with Chicago to the starting SS in Carolina.
• WLB Landon Johnson — Another Bengal who looks to have a bigger role than initially expected, Johnson started with the first team last week. An underrated all-around backer, Johnson played well enough the first week to keep Ed Hartwell a backup MLB/WLB.
• OLB Antwan Peek — Peek isn’t a stud NFL talent, but Willie McGinest’s back surgery and Kamerion Wimbley’s beastly performance in the first preseason game could push Peek into every week starter status in big play leagues this year.

Losers

• OLB Chike Okeafor — Okeafor is likely out for the season after suffering a torn bicep muscle last week. Owners looking to use Okeafor as a DL and get OLB stat lines are going to have to find another option to exploit the “Bryan Thomas” classification loophole.
• MLB Ahmad Brooks — Caleb Miller replaced Brooks in nickel situations in the first preseason game despite earlier indications that Brooks would be an every down linebacker. There’s still time for Brooks to prove himself in coverage and the team has praised his effort in practice, but this isn’t a good start to 2007.
• FS Will Demps — The Giants began camp with Gibril Wilson at FS, James Butler at SS and Demps, who was one of the better producing free safeties in IDP leagues last year, on the second team. Demps is apparently rotating in with the first team again this week but the writing may be on the wall for him.
• MLB Brian Simmons — A nagging chronic knee problem and the surprisingly consistent play of last year’s starter Mark Simoneau has Simmons stuck on the second team. If Simmons can’t get on the field and impress soon, he’ll have a hard time securing any IDP value in 2007 without an injury to another starter.
• WLB Keith Ellison — While it may not be set in stone yet, Ellison sat in nickel situations during the first preseason game. Though it appears Ellison will shift with the offensive formation to remain a WLB on all base defensive snaps, sitting in the nickel will keep him from becoming more than a LB3.
• OLB Bryan Thomas — The NFL.com gamebook and Jets official depth chart has finally be updated to reflect Thomas’ correct position as an OLB. Those holding out hope that Thomas will remain a DL in your IDP league have hopefully already made other arrangements.

Other ongoing storylines:

Patrick Willis is still behind Derek Smith at RILB in the 49er base defense. Roman Harper looks fully recovered and may play linebacker in the nickel defense for New Orleans. Demorrio Williams has been cleared for contact nearly a month before he was expected to return and is running with the first team in Atlanta. Gibril Wilson has been tabbed for the big play FS role that Brian Dawkins played in Philadelphia. Eagle LB Takeo Spikes is turning heads in camp and may have recovered his sideline-to-sideline range.

Keep an eye on our free IDP centered message board at FootballGuys for breaking news and quick analysis on the defensive side of the ball. And watch for our new weekly IDP podcast on The Audible which will debut next week.

According to reports out of Seattle, Mike Holmgren and the other coaches in Seattle plan to utilize Marcus Pollard extensively this season. In fact, coach Holmgren is predicting 50 catches for Pollard during 2007 - quite a few receptions, considering that our Footballguys.com experts generally agree he’ll be good for about 35 catches, yielding 350-400 yards and 3 TDs.

If Pollard’s 35 year old body is able to take the pounding, he could well have upside beyond his current average draft position of the #22 TE selected so far this year. He’s definitely a “sleeper” candidate for TE required leagues - keep an eye on his performance during the upcoming preseason games to see how often the Seahawks call his number in the passing game.

Following up on Will Grant’s post about what to look for during the preseason games, I thought I’d post a link to the NFL’s pre-season television schedule. This week we have five games on tap:

• Thu., Aug. 9 Indianapolis at Dallas FOX (8 p.m.)
• Fri., Aug. 10 Buffalo at New Orleans CBS (8 p.m.)
• Sat, Aug. 11 Washington at Tennessee NFLN (8 p.m.)
• Sun, Aug. 12 Seattle at San Diego NBC (8 p.m.)
• Mon, Aug. 13 Denver at San Francisco ESPN (8 p.m.)

Below are a few story lines of interest to fantasy owners regarding the above games.

On Thursday, we’ll get a glimpse of Tony Romo’s progress entering his second year as the starter for Dallas (likely we’ll see very little of Peyton Manning, Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne). Friday will give us an idea how resilient the Saints’ first team is this year after their embarrassment at the hands of “Blitzburgh” during the Hall of Fame game. Saturday, young guns Jason Campbell and Vince Young will be under the microscope of fantasy owners everywhere - who has made strides in his development so far? Will Young throw another punch with his throwing hand? Stay tuned, sports fans! Deion Branch has been enjoying his first full training camp with the Seahawks - can he and Matt Hasselbeck form a strong #1 tandem (replacing the Hasselbeck/Darrell Jackson connection), starting on Sunday? Is D.J. Hackett actually getting pushed by Nate Burleson, or was that a false camp rumor? On Monday, we’ll see if Jay Cutler is simpatico with Javon Walker and Daniel Graham, and who will line up as the team’s #2 WR. Alex Smith enters the game without his top RB, Frank Gore - how will the 49ers adjust their attack to compensate for the absent (broken hand) Gore?

Don’t you just love football season? Get ready to rummmbllle fantasy owners everywhere - the game is BACK ON!

Continuing in the series, here is a look at the pass distributions for the NFC West teams. For a quick orientation, see this post.

          ==== WR =====|=== TE ===|=== RB ==
TM   YR     1  2  3  T |  1  2  T |  1  2  T
============================================
sfo 2004 | 19 16 12 55 | 24  3 28 |  6  4 17
    2005 | 33 17 13 69 |  3  2  7 | 11  6 24
    2006 | 25 24  5 56 | 10  9 19 | 17  5 24

          ==== WR =====|=== TE ===|=== RB ==
TM   YR     1  2  3  T |  1  2  T |  1  2  T
============================================
ari 2004 | 25 20 17 69 | 13  2 15 |  6  5 16
    2005 | 30 30  9 77 |  6  3  9 |  5  5 14
    2006 | 31 24 19 80 |  4  3  8 |  6  4 12

          ==== WR =====|=== TE ===|=== RB ==
TM   YR     1  2  3  T |  1  2  T |  1  2  T
============================================
sea 2004 | 32 13 13 72 |  9  6 19 |  5  3  9
    2005 | 21 19 13 74 | 15  2 18 |  5  2  8
    2006 | 28 22 18 82 |  7  2 10 |  5  1  8

          ==== WR =====|=== TE ===|=== RB ==
TM   YR     1  2  3  T |  1  2  T |  1  2  T
============================================
stl 2004 | 30 28 11 82 |  4  1  5 |  7  4 13
    2005 | 31 18 12 79 |  3  2  6 |  7  7 15
    2006 | 27 25 11 67 |  5  2  8 | 19  4 25