2.32: Phillip Merling, DE, Miami Dolphins

Pass rusher had some injury woes but was effective off the edge when healthy. Has the size (6′5″, 272 pounds) that Bill Parcells covets. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.33: Donnie Avery, WR, St. Louis Rams

Quite a surprise. The first WR off the board is a small, uber fast guy considered a mid round pick by most scouts. Hard to believe he can replace Isaac Bruce without a few years of seasoning. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.34: Devin Thomas, WR, Washington Redskins (via Oakland through Atlanta)

The Redskins draft the WR many expected to be first off the WR board. Devin Thomas only had one big year at Michigan but has great size (6′2″, 215 pounds) and can also help as a kickoff returner. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.35: Brandon Flowers, CB, Kansas City Chiefs

If Flowers ran a tenth of a second faster, he would’ve been a mid 1st rounder. Great choice for the rebuilding Chiefs. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.36: Jordy Nelson, WR, Green Bay Packers (via New York Jets)

Another surprising WR selection. Was WR really a need for Green Bay with Driver, Jennings and Jones on the roster? Should help on special teams right away. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.37: Curtis Lofton, LB, Atlanta Falcons

Tackling machine, ideally suited for the inside where he can flow downfield to the ball. Not someone good in space and must be put in the right scheme to succeed. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.38: John Carlson, TE, Seattle Seahawks (via Baltimore)

Mike Holmgren called this a need, and the ‘hawks felt Carlson was a perfect fit for their West Coast offense. Carlson put up big numbers with Brady Quinn under center, as a reminder. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.39: Chilo Rachal, OG, San Francisco 49ers

Rachal gets knocked for not being a great athlete, but he’s technically sound and has a mean streak. As long as he plays inside and isn’t asked to pull and extend to the 2nd level much, he could be a starter immediately. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.40: Tracy Porter, CB, New Orleans Saints

Ironic that the Saints draft a cornerback with the 40th pick; considering there were rumors all week that the 40th pick would be part of a package to acquire Eagles CB Lito Sheppard. Porter is good at tracking the ball but isn’t a sure tackler or much help supporting the run.

2.41: James Hardy, WR, Buffalo Bills

The Bills landed the top corner in the draft last round and, in my opinion, the best receiver in the draft at 2.41. Hardy is a big guy who isn’t afraid of contact. He goes up for the ball and runs good routes; which helps offset a lack of breakaway speed.

2.42: Eddie Royal, WR, Denver Broncos

Royal is one of a handful of receivers who also project as solid returner at the next level. At only 5′8″, 184 pounds, Royal will need to prove he can hold up as a receiver over the course of the season. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.43: Tyrell Johnson, S, Minnesota Vikings (via Carolina through Philadelphia)

Kenny Phillips has the bigger name, but Johnson may have the bigger game. The Vikes continue to bolster their defense with another solid young, physical player. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.44: Matt Forte, RB, Chicago Bears

I’m not crazy about Forte; I don’t believe he’s a special back nor was he the best back left on the board. However, Forte has his supporters and it’s not inconceivable he could earn the starting gig over Cedric Benson sooner rather than later.

2.45: Jordon Dizon, OLB, Detroit Lions

Dizon lacks ideal size and speed; but like many solid NFL linebackers before him, he just makes plays. He’s instinctive and a sound tackler; exactly the kind of guy Rod Marinelli can build around. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.46: Jerome Simpson, WR, Cincinnati Bengals

Further proof that beauty is in the eye of the beholder at WR this year. Simpson wasn’t close to the best WR prospect on the board, but clearly the Bengals felt otherwise. At least, this pick fills a need given the release of Chris Henry and concerns about Chad Johnson’s status.

2.47: Trevor Laws, DT, Philadelphia Eagles (via Minnesota)

The Eagles finally make a pick, and it’s clearly a “best player available” selection. Defensive tackle was hardly a major need, but Laws is a high character, high motor guy who will add depth to an already young tackle rotation.

2.48: Fred Davis, TE, Washington Redskins (via Houston through Atlanta)

The Redskins are committed to getting QB Jason Campbell weapons. First Devin Thomas and now a pass-receiving tight end a few picks later. Davis doesn’t project into an elite tight end, but the Redskins don’t need him to be given the presence of Chris Cooley.

2.49: DeSean Jackson, WR/KR, Philadelphia Eagles

Many Birds fans wouldn’t have complained if Jackson was the pick in the 1st round. So to trade down, grab a 2009 1st rounder as compensation and get DeSean anyway was a coup. He’s tiny (169 pounds) but is blazing fast and unstoppable in the open field. He instantly gives the Eagles the best returner they’ve had in 5 years.

2.50: Calais Campbell, DE, Arizona Cardinals

You don’t find many 6′8″, 280 pound ends; yet Campbell fell into the 2nd round because of an uneven 2007 season. He was a stud in 2006 and, as long as the Cards play him at the right position, should combine with free agent Clark Haggans to improve the Cards pass rush.

2.51: Malcolm Kelly, WR, Washington Redskins

Sure, he’s slower than you would like. But have teams watched this kid play? He’s a polished route runner, has great hands and excellent body control. Very reminiscent of the year Chad Johnson fell because of his slow 40-time; the Skins got a steal.

2.52: Quentin Groves, DE, Jacksonville Jaguars (via Tampa Bay)

The Jags have a stifling defense already, but they aren’t great at putting pressure on opposing QBs. Adding Quentin Groves in the 2nd after taking Derrick Harvey 8th overall goes a long way to changing the Jags pass rush. Groves character issues aside, this was a solid pick.

2.53: Limas Sweed, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers

Some scouts love Sweed, some see him as a bust. At 53rd overall, the Steelers aren’t risking a lot financially to find out if he’s the next Plaxico Burress. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.54: Jason Jones, DE, Tennessee Titans

Jones could replace Antwan Odom right away, but he’s a bit raw to expect that. Eventually the Titans see Jones as a capable 2-way end in their 4-3 defense. His skill set is more suited to defensive tackle, but his size projects him as an end.

2.55: Ray Rice, RB, Baltimore Ravens (via Seattle)

Ray Rice is a local product who was wildly productive as the main ball carrier for Rutgers. While he lacks prototypical size, his low center of gravity and style make him more than capable of being an every down back if needed.

2.56: Brian Brohm, QB, Green Bay Packers (via Cleveland)

Now that’s kind of surprising. Or is it? The Pack took Aaron Rodgers in the 1st when Brett Favre was under center, so why wouldn’t they take the most accurate QB prospect in the 2nd round given Rodgers inexperience? Worst case, he’s a backup for a few years. Best case, he outplays Rodgers and ends up starting in a year or two.

2.57: Chad Henne, QB, Miami Dolphins (via San Diego)

How about that? It looks like Jake Long may be blocking for Chad Henne for a few more years. Another smart pick. He could easily outplay Beck and McCown to win the job; at the very lesaet he’s a big armed, young backup for a good price.

2.58: Dexter Jackson, WR/KR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (via Jacksonville)

This was a reach pick. While Jackson is another potentially dangerous return man; he needs a lot of maturing as a route runner before he can reasonably play WR on a regular basis. Blistering speed (4.33) though and dangerous in the open field.

2.59: Mike Pollak, OG/C, Indianapolis Colts

A classic Colts pick. Their only 1st day pick and it’s a fundamentally sound center that they project as a starting offensive guard for now and possibly a replacement for Jeff Saturday later. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.60: Patrick Lee, DB, Green Bay Packers

A hard worker, Lee may someday start at corner but not for a few seasons. In the meantime, he can be a force on special teams and perhaps play nickel back particularly in run support situations. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.61: Martellus Bennett, TE, Dallas Cowboys

I like this pick more than most. For my money, Bennett was the top TE in this draft. He’s huge, is a good blocker who can become great, and should be a key red zone target given his height and willingness to go up for the ball. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.62: Terrence Wheatley, CB, New England Patriots

The Pats always seem to find value and this was no exception. Wheatley is a legitimate shutdown cover corner who, were it not for myriad injuries in college, would’ve been in the hunt for a top 15 selection. Either way, he’ll help the Pats on defense and special teams.

2.63: Terrell Thomas, CB, New York Giants

Thomas is the 217th USC Trojan to be drafted in the first two rounds (not really, just feels that way). If the Giants view him as a corner, I don’t like this pick. But if they’re going to try to convert him to safety; where his deficiencies can be obfuscated somewhat, the choice makes more sense.

Saints get:

• 7th overall pick (used to select DT Sedrick Ellis)
• 164th overall pick (5th round)

Patriots get:

• 10th overall pick
• 78th overall pick (3rd round)

The New Orleans Saints selected DT Sedrick Ellis with the 7th overall pick, trading up from the 10th spot to secure the 2nd best defensive tackle in the draft. Ellis is a beast with a mean streak, and projects as an instant starter in a 4-3 defense.

Fantasy Impact: The Saints targeted defensive tackle as a major need and were aggressive in solving that problem. Ellis projects as an instant starter who should provide not only improved interior run defense, but a push up the middle which will make the edge rushers that much more effective.

Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons are unlikely to use either the franchise or transition tag designations this offseason.

Carolina Panthers

OT Jordan Gross

The Panthers could lose both tackles in free agency, which would be an inauspicious outcome for a team that has to make a playoff push to appease fans and ownership this season. While Gross may not be one of the five best tackles in football, he is a promising young player with starting experience on both sides of the line. Expect the team to try to lock him down to a multi-year deal or he’ll probably get tagged by February 21st.

xxxx

New Orleans Saints

Two important members of the offensive line, C Jeff Faine and OG Jamar Nesbit are free agents, but neither is expected to be tagged as the Saints look toward taking a rational approach toward bringing back some of their key free agent contributors.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Bucs are unlikely to use either tag designation on their free agents; none would warrant the type of financial commitment a tag brings with it.

You are welcome to consider the following as analysis or entertainment, as you see fit.

WEEK 16 of the 2O06 SEASON
Seven kickers score in double digits in week 16 last year:
10 Matt Bryant in TB 22-7 victory at Cle
11 David Akers in Phi 23-7 victory at Dal
12 Rob Bironas in Ten 30-29 victory at Buf
12 John Carney in NO 30-7 victory at NYG
14 Neil Rackers in Ari 26-20 victory at SF
14 Robbie Gould in Chi 26-20 victory at Det
17 Rian Lindell in Buf 29-20 loss against Ten

6 of 7 of those games featured teams that ended up with similar records (Chi-Det being the exception)
6 of 7 of those kickers played for the visiting team (Lindell being the exception)
6 of 7 of those kickers played for the team that won (Lindell being the exception)

WEEK 16 of the 2007 SEASON
Who are the visiting kickers this week in matchups of teams with similar records?
Lawrence Tynes: 9-5 NYG at 7-7 Buf
David Akers: 6-8 Phi at 7-7 NO
John Carney: 4-10 KC at 6-8 Det
Shaun Suisham: 7-7 Was at 8-6 Min

Reggie Bush was a consensus top-10 fantasy pick this year in traditional leagues, and was a top-5 pick in leagues that reward points per reception. Needless to say, he’s been a resounding disappointment so far, along with the rest of the Saints offense.

From our Footballguys Game Summaries:

Week 1 at IND - Bush had a disappointing first game as only had 45 total yards of offense. He had six carries for 21 yards rushing in the first half. He picked up a nine yard gain on an end around in the first quarter which would be his longest play from scrimmage all game. Bush did get a first down on a seven yard carry on a rare run up the middle that helped set up set up the Saints only offensive points of the game. The tough Colts pass defense held Bush to only two catches for a negative three yards in the first half. Things didn’t get much better for Bush in the second half as he was held to 17 yards rushing and ten yards receiving. The Colts speedy defense did a good job of containing Bush and covering him in the open field.

Week 2 at TB - Bush really could not get much going on the ground, totaling 27 yards on ten carries with a long of just ten yards. He did receive a goal line carry on the play before the Karney touchdown, and was used as a decoy on the ensuing score. His main contribution came in the passing game, with six receptions for 43 yards on eight targets. Bush did have two fumbles in the game, but the Saints were able to recover both of them.

Week 3 vs TEN - Bush was well contained by the Titans defense and was limited to one yard or less on five of his seven carries (though two of those carries were one yard TD runs). As usual, he was quite active in the passing game, catching six of eight balls sent his way (he was targeted two other times on plays negated by penalties). Bush’s mediocre stat lines are becoming disturbingly common, though the two TD’s saved him in this case.

The plan was for Bush to share time with Deuce McAllister; with McAllister pounding out the tough yardage while Bush tries to hit the home runs while catching a ton of passes lined up all over the field. Unfortunately, Deuce McAllister tore his ACL and is lost for the season.

So Bush will be asked to not only shoulder a bigger workload, but he’ll be asked to do so at a time when the Saints offense is in desperate need of a major facelift. Can the 2nd overall pick handle the job? And should fantasy owners be trying to take advantage of his slow start by making trade inquiries for him?

The question was asked on our message board forum: Is Reggie Bush an every down, 25 carry RB?

• 62.93% NO (146 votes)
• 37.07% YES (86 votes)

Some think Bush will be just fine, and point to the success of other smaller, multi-faceted backs in recent years:

H.K. says: Warrick Dunn has been pretty successful over the years as the primary ball carrier. Bush will be fine.

U. Mint says: If they can use him like Brian Westbrook, I think he will do well.

Another message board poster, twitch, worries about what he’s seen of Bush so far in his young career:

Until I see Bush running straight ahead, north and south, between the tackles, I’m not going to give Bush any love. We’ll find out what he’s made of at this point with Deuce out. It seems like all he ever does is run away from trouble. I’m not sure he’s gonna be real good at getting the tough yards, but he’s an amazing guy, so I really hope he figures it out. Bush with 25 carries and game AND catches? Seems like an injury waiting to happen, but I hope he stays healthy and blows up on the NFL.

Chaos Commish offers some perspective on Bush’s ability as a between-the-tackles runner:

The answer to this question is: “Yes Reggie can carry it 20 times between the tackles.” It isn’t a big deal. He carried 18 times in the first half against UCLA and had over 200 yards and 3 TDs, 14 of those carries were between the tackles and he was just warming up. Running that many times is about stamina and endurance, not durability. Durability is an issue of injury and Reggie has no history of that save a minor ankle here or there. Mewelde Moore was a workhorse at Tulane and could be one in Minnesota if asked to do so. More carries for any back means more chances to get hurt… any back. Norwood was a workhorse in the SEC and could be one in Atlanta if asked to be. Addai was never a workhorse at LSU, but it is no big deal for him to be one now. The whole notion of a workhorse back is way over thought. Most backs can be every down backs if their coaches ask them to. It is that simple. There are a few who seem limited, but just a few. There are a few who seem injury prone, but that’s impossible to predict, and Bush has no history or injury.

Where do you stand on the situation?  We’re a house divided on staff. Some of us (myself included) think the added workload will help; as many great backs need to get into a steady rhythm. Assuming the Saints offensive line issues can be corrected (and barring a major hidden injury, I don’t see why they can’t), I think the team is bound to improve from what’s been a woeful start. Bush’s year end numbers are likely to look different now than they would have; I don’t see him catching 88 passes like last year. But I could see him racking up at least 200 carries and 50-60 receptions. Even if you assume he averages a meager 3.8 yards per carry; Bush is still a good bet to put up top 10-12 numbers if he can hold up to the increased workload; particularly in PPR leagues.

Yesterday, we saw how the Chargers running game has declined through three games more than any team since the ‘96-’97 seasons. Well, San Diego, you’ve got some company. The 2006-2007 Saints are currently mirroring the Chargers’ fall from grace. No passing attack since 1996 has seen as large a decline in performance through three games as the ‘07 Saints.

What makes both situations so surprising is that each team kept its key personnel. The Saints brought back Brees, Bush, Colston and McAllister, and drafted Robert Meachem to replace Joe Horn. Sean Payton is still around, so we can’t use the Norv Turner excuse in New Orleans. The real culprit has been the abysmal play of the line, but who could have predicted that? Pro Bowl LT Jammal Brown is injured and playing like it, while RT Jon Stinchcomb is playing miserably. Brees has been sacked “only” four times, but he’s committed nine turnovers in three games in the face of constant pressure. So how much worse than last year are the Saints passing stats?

I calculated the adjusted yards per pass attempt for all passes thrown by QBs for every team from 1996-2006. For those that don’t remember what AY/A is,

Adjusted yards per attempt is defined as (passing yards + 10*(TD passes) - 45*(interceptions thrown)) / (pass attempts). It was devised (and the reasoning behind it explained) in a book called The Hidden Game of Football, by Carroll, Palmer, and Thorn.

Here are the top 20 passing teams from 1996-2006, sorted by adjusted yards per pass attempt.

 year	tm 	cmp	att	yard	td	int	AY/A
 2004	clt	353	526	4732	51	10	9.11
 2004	min	379	548	4717	39	11	8.42
 2000	ram	380	587	5492	37	23	8.22
 1999	ram	343	529	4586	42	15	8.19
 1998	atl	236	420	3722	28	15	7.92
 2006	phi	322	542	4298	31	 8	7.84
 2003	oti	312	496	3992	30	 9	7.84
 1998	min	327	534	4492	41	16	7.83
 2005	clt	348	515	4191	31	11	7.78
 2006	clt	362	557	4397	31	 9	7.72
 2004	sdg	287	446	3468	29	 7	7.72
 2001	ram	378	549	4852	36	22	7.69
 1998	sfo	346	555	4482	40	15	7.58
 2003	min	333	518	4169	32	13	7.54
 2006	nor	372	578	4626	27	12	7.54
 2000	den	354	568	4464	28	12	7.40
 2004	phi	336	546	4208	32	11	7.39
 2004	kan	370	561	4633	27	17	7.38
 2005	kan	317	507	4014	17	10	7.36
 2000	sfo	365	581	4404	32	10	7.36

For comparison’s sake, here are the worst 20 passing teams from 1996-2006:

 year	tm 	cmp	att	yard	td	int	AY/A
 1998	sdg	260	565	3092	10	34	2.94
 1997	nor	244	487	3012	12	35	3.20
 1999	crd	286	555	3059	11	30	3.28
 2005	sfo	202	387	2163	8	21	3.35
 2003	det	318	585	2967	17	24	3.52
 2000	cin	207	454	2219	6	14	3.63
 1998	phi	282	531	2733	7	18	3.75
 1999	phi	235	472	2405	18	18	3.76
 2001	cin	322	601	3291	12	25	3.80
 2001	car	314	578	3098	12	22	3.85
 2002	det	277	575	3168	19	25	3.88
 2005	chi	218	416	2183	11	15	3.89
 2006	rai	263	481	2850	7	23	3.92
 1996	nyg	237	458	2639	13	21	3.98
 2003	atl	230	457	2631	14	21	4.00
 2001	dal	209	411	2409	14	20	4.01
 2004	mia	308	585	3343	19	26	4.04
 2002	crd	291	548	3038	18	22	4.07
 1998	pit	273	488	2764	13	20	4.09
 2003	chi	271	515	2905	12	20	4.13

The 2006 Saints averaged 7.54 AY/A, but through three games in 2007, New Orleans is at just 2.86 AY/A. That difference of 4.67 (rounded) is the largest decline from Year N to Year N+1 (through three games) of any pairing since the 1996-1997 seasons:

 2006	nor	7.54	2.86	4.67
 1996	nor	4.74	0.44	4.29
 1998	sfo	7.58	3.29	4.29
 1997	pit	5.54	1.54	3.99
 2004	min	8.42	4.43	3.98
 1998	crd	5.50	1.58	3.93
 2005	rai	5.86	2.26	3.60
 2000	was	5.61	2.01	3.60
 2002	atl	6.43	2.95	3.49
 1998	nyj	7.13	3.67	3.46
 1999	sea	6.02	2.70	3.31
 2000	dal	4.41	1.14	3.27
 2005	pit	6.95	3.78	3.17
 1998	rav	5.62	2.46	3.16
 2001	ram	7.69	4.62	3.07
 2002	rav	5.64	2.60	3.04
 2002	chi	4.90	1.89	3.01
 2004	clt	9.11	6.14	2.97
 2001	det	5.13	2.21	2.92
 2005	tam	5.57	2.68	2.89

These Saints have some company, at least. The 1997 Saints had an absolutely miserable start thanks to Mike Ditka and Heath Shuler. Steve Young had one of the best seasons of all time for the 49ers in 1998, but was injured very early in 1999 and played poorly before that. The ‘98 Steelers? The beginning of the Kordell Stewart collapse. The 2005 Vikings? The beginning of the Daunte Culpepper collapse, although to be fair, he had quite a perch to fall from. The 1999 Cardinals? The Jake Plummer collapse. Suffice it to say, history doesn’t have anything pretty to say for Saints fans.

You might have noticed that Tom Brady’s having a pretty good start, but he wasn’t bad last year. While it’s one of the biggest improvements over the same era, it’s not even the sharpest increase in 2007:

 2000	atl	4.65	10.35	-5.70
 1998	ram	4.86	10.20	-5.34
 2004	pit	7.17	12.47	-5.30
 2006	tam	4.34	9.04	-4.70
 2005	sfo	3.35	7.81	-4.46
 2006	nwe	6.26	10.70	-4.44
 1998	was	5.92	10.16	-4.24
 2005	chi	3.89	7.99	-4.10
 1999	den	5.43	9.23	-3.80
 2001	car	3.85	7.49	-3.64
 2005	phi	5.18	8.72	-3.53
 2003	phi	6.03	9.54	-3.51
 2003	nyg	4.71	8.22	-3.51
 1996	rai	5.21	8.66	-3.45
 1998	sea	5.47	8.88	-3.41
 2000	sdg	4.13	7.33	-3.20
 1996	tam	4.39	7.59	-3.20
 1999	cle	5.12	8.31	-3.20
 2005	nyj	5.16	8.21	-3.05
 2006	dal	6.68	9.66	-2.98

The 2000 Falcons gave away over a third of their stats to Doug Johnson and Danny Kanell, who played terribly. Chris Chandler started off lights out in 2001, with 651 passing yards on 60 attempts through three games. The ‘99 Rams obviously added Kurt Warner, and Roethlisberger started off white hot in 2005, with 688 passing yards on 60 passing attempts through three games. And then you’ve got this year’s Bucs, who seem rejuvenated with 37-year old Jeff Garcia.

Which ugly start is more surprising, the ‘Aints passing attack or the ‘Bolts rushing attack? Which of those team seems more likely to turn it around? The Saints have lost McAllister for the season, while the Chargers main players are all healthy (although they lost their head coach and offensive coordinator). And will either of the first two picks in the Chargers 2001 draft go back to the Pro Bowl this year?

Thursday Night.

Colts vs Saints.

Football is BACK and it COUNTS.

You had your fantasy draft(s) and cleaned up thanks to diligent research and a little help from your friends at Footballguys.com. …or so you thought:

THE AGONY

• Reggie Bush was your first round pick, and was facing a Colts defense that couldn’t stop the run last year and now was without Booger McFarland. [12 carries for 38 yards (3.2 per rush), 4 catches for 7 yards, 0 TDs]

• Deuce McAllister was your flex position guy, there was no way he wouldn’t find the end zone once or twice against that sieve defense. [10 rushes for 38 yards (3.8 per rush), 2 catches for 7 yards, 0 TDs]

• Drew Brees was nearly perfect in the preseason, and seemed destined to pick right back up where he left off a season ago when the Saints threw for more than 4,400 yards. [28 for 41 (68%) for 192 yards, 0 TDs, 2 INTs]

THE ECSTASY

• Joseph Addai was there at the 5 spot and you took him, unsure if you were reaching for an unproven back. But he had the opportunity and you hoped he could thrive. [23 carries for 118 yards (5.1 per rush), 3 catches for 25 yards, 1 TD]

• Marvin Harrison has seven straight seasons with 10+ TDs, and you drafted him with the hope he has at least one more elite season in him. [4 catches for 83 yards (20.8 per catch), 1 TD]

• Reggie Wayne may take a back seat to Marvin Harrison in Indy, but he’s a fantasy WR1 in your eyes. [7 catches for 115 yards (16.4 per catch), 2 TDs]

• Peyton Manning was your first round pick. It’s never easy making a QB your first rounder, but Manning is just too good and too consistent to ignore. [18 for 30 (60%) for 288 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTs]

Last night’s game was a microcosm of why we all love this hobby. Sometimes you feel like a genius, other times you feel like every decision you made was dead wrong. Get ready for another 255 roller coaster rides just like it.

The NFL Season is just two weeks away, and Fantasy Football drafts are happening all over the country. My eyes are about to pop out of my head from watching 40+ NFL preseason games either in entirety, in fast forward (stopping to catch several key plays) or even on the NFL.com highlight reel. My two DVRs are jam-packed still, but time is a-wastin’.

With that in mind, I have gone through my offensive player rankings for Footballguys for perhaps the last time before Week 1. For obvious reasons I cannot provide my entire rankings list here (subscriber only content), but I can tell you about a few tweaks that I made. There are several changes across the board, mostly minor upticks and downgrades, but I thought it would help some to know about the major moves I made and why:

Wide Receivers:

Take a look here for my overall WR redraft rankings as well as several other Footballguys staff’s opinions.

Wide receiver is a tricky position to rank, as here at Footballguys we focus on ranking them based solely on touchdown and yardage (no points per reception bonuses). Still, WRs are valuable and I see a big dropoff after about 20 WRs go off the fantasy draft boards this year. If you require starting three of them or if you get the “PPR” bonus, this is a very important position. Bear in mind that if you start 3 or have a flex position, your fourth (or even fifth) WR will be playing a few weeks for you as a starter. Draft accordingly.

Based on what I have seen, read and heard over the past few weeks, I have only made a few changes in the Top 20. Torry Holt’s knee cannot go unnoticed, so he’s a downgrade for certain. Marques Colston isn’t getting much press either, but he’s also not 100%. With so many options in the Top 20, I want “sure things”, and these guys are less than that at this moment. I’ll target a Roy Williams or a Reggie Wayne instead.

Lee Evans has impressed me, even after his amazing two-83-yard TD game last season. He’ll catch anything you throw deep at him far more often than not, and that’s a guy I want on my fantasy team. T.J. Houshmandzadeh is another top name that could really mean “Championship” for you this fantasy season.

A few other situations have me looking hard at their team’s receivers. Pittsburgh is going to throw more this year and I think that benefits Santonio Holmes more than Hines Ward. In fact, I think Holmes could be the #1 option in that passing game this season. Move Holmes up, Ward down a little.

The Giants will be throwing the ball around, but the question is who will catch it. Everyone seems dinged - from Plaxico Burress (ankle) to Michael Jennings (out for the year) to the return of an older Amani Toomer (torn ACL last year). That tells me to take a look at Steve Smith later in the draft for a guy with upside.

Staying in the NFC East, Terry Glenn is not getting younger either and he is also hurt. Terrell Owens is very very good, but he’s also not built out of steel. Grab Patrick Crayton who could be a starter several times for the Cowboys this season. I’ve already moved him up my draft board (and Glenn down some).

Next up…. Tight Ends.

Continuing on…I thought it might be helpful to give you a few quick hitting comments on which players are rising and falling in MY (i.e., different than Dodds’) projections this preseason.

Up next, the NFC South:

RISING

• Joey Harrington, ATL (Rank: QB29) — Don’t like him much, but he’s the starter
• Luke McCown, TB (Rank: QB46) — Looks to be Bucs QB2
• Jerious Norwood, ATL (Rank: RB23) — A star in the making
• Cadillac Williams, TB (Rank: RB24) — I’m still below consensus, but has looked healthy in preseason
• DeShaun Foster, CAR (Rank: RB32) — Foster seems to have held off Williams for starting gig
• Jason Snelling, ATL (Rank: RB71) — Surprise winner of ATL RB3 battle
• Joe Horn, ATL (Rank: WR38) — Healthy + More Pass Attempts = Decent fantasy backup
• David Boston, TB (Rank: WR50) — DUI could screw things up, but played into role in preseason
• Roddy White, ATL (Rank: WR59) — Big play threat = Push Jenkins to WR3/Slot
• David Patten, NO (Rank: WR73) — Could open as WR3 (or even WR2) in pass happy offense

FALLING

• Michael Vick, ATL (Rank: Unranked) — May this be the last time we discuss Vick’s NFL prospects
• Bruce Gradkowski, TB (Rank: Unranked) — McCown appears to have edge for QB2 job
• DeAngelo Williams, CAR (Rank: RB35) — Long-term > Foster, but maybe not this year
• Warrick Dunn, ATL (Rank: RB47) — Dunn = DONE
• Mike Alstott, TB (Rank: Unranked) — He retired
• Marques Colston, NO (Rank: WR18) — Still top-20 ranked, but I see less growth than consensus
• Devery Henderson, NO (Rank: WR44) — Hamstrings + Depth = Risky WR2 prospect
• Dwayne Jarrett, CAR (Rank: WR49) — Hasn’t earned starting nod…yet
• Michael Jenkins, ATL (Rank: WR68) — Prefer Horn and White in Hotlanta
• Robert Meachem, NO (Rank: WR87) — ‘07 looks like a “red shirt” year
• Michael Clayton, TB (Rank: WR103) — Fool me once, shame on me…fool me twice…

Let’s hear your thoughts…where do you agree? Where do you disagree and why?

Taking a look at the the latest ADP data, it seems that fantasy owners are paying too much attention to where the rookie WR crop were drafted in April versus how their situations have evolved over the four months since. Let’s look at the top-12 rookie receivers, according to the most recent ADP data:

• Calvin Johnson — WR20 (54th overall)
• Anthony Gonzalez — WR53 (160th overall)
• Dwayne Jarrett — WR56 (164th overall)
• Dwayne Bowe — WR59 (175th overall)
• Ted Ginn Jr. — WR62 (187th overall)
• Robert Meachem — WR63 (195th overall)
• Craig Davis — WR77 (246th overall)
• Jason Hill — WR82 (256th overall)
• James Jones — WR83 (257th overall)
• Steve Smith — WR87 (269th overall)
• Sidney Rice — WR88 (270th overall)
• Jacoby Jones — WR102 (311th overall)

In my opinion, some of these draft positions are WAY out of whack with the reality of their 2007 opportunities.

OVERVALUED ROOKIES

• Anthony Gonzalez, IND — He’s a rookie, he’s not guaranteed the #3 spot (Aaron Moorehead has been as good in camp, and has the experience factor), and save for Manning’s 49-TD season, the WR3 slot in Indy hasn’t warranted a pick that high based on year-end numbers
• Dwayne Jarrett, CAR – Yes, he may be the future WR2 in Carolina, but he’s not the present. Both Drew Carter and Keary Colbert have been running ahead of him all preseason
• Jason Hill, SF — It’s hard to call someone being drafted 256th overall overvalued. But Hill is going ahead of at least 10 wideouts I think will handily outperform him this year. Hill hasn’t gotten any run in San Francisco this preseason, and looks to start the season no better than WR4 (at best)
• Robert Meachem, NO — Meachem may have a bright future in New Orleans, but as our Sigmund Bloom said this week on The Audible, this is looking more and more like a “red shirt” year for the young speedster out of Tennessee. Meachem was a camp holdout and then showed up out of shape. He hasn’t sniffed the first team during the preseason and is running solidly behind Marques Colston, Devery Henderson, Terrence Copper, David Patten and possibly, Lance Moore.
• Ted Ginn Jr., MIA — Ginn is an athlete, but he’s not a polished receiver yet. Unless your team gets points for special teams contributions, Ginn is going far too high given the options still available.

FAIRLY VALUED ROOKIES

• Calvin Johnson, DET – Calvin Johnson is currently ranked 23rd in our consensus WR rankings, so his ADP of WR20 isn’t too out of whack. While it’s never a sure bet to bet on a rookie to deliver WR20 numbers, Johnson is a once-in-a-generation talent and plays for one of the league’s most pass happy offensive coordinators.
• Dwayne Bowe, KC – The Chiefs aren’t going to throw a lot based on Herm Edwards’ coaching history; and Brodie Croyle hasn’t instilled much confidence. However, the Chiefs are more desperate for a young playmaker at wideout than any team in the NFL. Eddie Kennison is solid but he’s getting old and is really better suited as a WR2. And Samie Parker (Mr. Inconsistent) is all that stands in Bowe’s way.
• Sidney Rice, MIN — Rice is an enigma. He’s super skinny and playing in arguably the most jumbled WR corps in the league, but he could easily emerge as a starter sometime this season. The issue, however, is that he could just as easily end up the 4th or 5th wideout. Add to that the uncertainty of QB Tarvaris Jackson and Rice is probably best left as a late round flier or waiver wire pickup

UNDERVALUED ROOKIES

• Craig Davis, SD — Eric Parker is out for a good chunk of the season and rookie Davis has been running with the starting unit opposite Vincent Jackson. The Chargers have a Pro Bowl QB in Philip Rivers and while the WR2 won’t get a ton of targets because of Tomlinson and Gates also getting looks, any NFL starting wideout deserves a higher ADP than Davis’
• James Jones, GB – As we discussed yesterday, Jones has been a beast this preseason and should be the Packers WR3 at worst. But with the injury to Donald Driver, Jones could start the season opposite Greg Jennings. With the Packers throwing the ball 500+ times, and the team’s willingness to start rookies (Jennings started last year), Jones should be drafted in 12-team leagues but his ADP suggests he’s not been
• Steve Smith, NYG — Smith is going to start the season as the Giants WR3, but given Burress’ and Toomer’s injury situations, and Toomer’s advancing age, he stands a good chance of becoming a starter at some point this year. Smith has been one of the most impressive, polished rookie receivers throughout training camp and the preseason. He should have a better season than his USC counterpart
• Jacoby Jones, HOU — Jones is running neck and neck with Kevin Walter for the Texans WR2 position. The Texans have no reason to sit a talent like Jones if he’s as good, if not better than Walter at this juncture. While the Texans offense has its question marks, a 16-game NFL starter (potentially) deserves to be drafted in deeper leagues, yet Jacoby is going outside the top 300!

Today on The Audible, Sigmund Bloom and Cecil Lammey take a look at the NFC South from top to bottom.

LISTEN NOW!
In This Episode: Cecil Lammey and Sigmund Bloom review the QBs of the NFC South in the Preseason Watch List Edition of The Audible. Topics Include: how can Joey Harrington possibly succeed, does David Carr push his way into the number one job ahead of Jake Delhomme, the magnificient Drew Brees, Jeff Garcia, plus more!

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LISTEN NOW!
In This Episode: Cecil Lammey and Sigmund Bloom review the QBs of the NFC South in the Preseason Watch List Edition of The Audible. Topics Include: Jerious Norwood, Warrick Dunn, Jason Snelling, who wins the starting job in Carolina, will Reggie Bush see an expanded role, can Caddy be a star once again, plus more!

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LISTEN NOW!
In This Episode: Cecil Lammey and Sigmund Bloom review the QBs of the NFC South in the Preseason Watch List Edition of The Audible. Topics Include: Alge Crumpler, who wins the number two job opposite of Steve Smith, can Devery Henderson stay healthy and perform, is David Boston really going to start, plus more!

While it can be dangerous to read too much into the first “official” depth charts and the fluff pieces beat writers produce early in the preseason, there are always important nuggets to be gleaned from watching preseason games and carefully considering the comments of coaches and coordinators. Here’s a look at some of the changes in the IDP landscape thus far.Winners

• ILB Adalius Thomas — As was reported during OTAs, Thomas lined up all over the field last week but primarily at LILB. That’s often been the better tackling position in the Belichick scheme in recent years. Thomas looked a little uncomfortable inside at times but the combination of increased run support opportunity and pass rush skill may prove a lethal combination in the boxscore.
• DE Robert Geathers — After the team hinted that he would remain in a situational pass rushing role, Geathers played every down with the first team defense. Geathers has flashed decent run supporting skill in prior seasons and has 45 solo, 10 sack potential in the full time role.
• SS Deon Grant — Some felt Grant was in for a big bump in stats after leaving the limiting Jacksonville scheme for the greener Seahawk defense but the news that Grant would take on a more traditional strong safety role should make him an even safer bet for 2007.
• SS Chris Harris — Harris became a must roster after the Panthers acquired him from the Bears as camp began. Harris may not be a special NFL talent, but his IDP value goes from non-existent as a backup with Chicago to the starting SS in Carolina.
• WLB Landon Johnson — Another Bengal who looks to have a bigger role than initially expected, Johnson started with the first team last week. An underrated all-around backer, Johnson played well enough the first week to keep Ed Hartwell a backup MLB/WLB.
• OLB Antwan Peek — Peek isn’t a stud NFL talent, but Willie McGinest’s back surgery and Kamerion Wimbley’s beastly performance in the first preseason game could push Peek into every week starter status in big play leagues this year.

Losers

• OLB Chike Okeafor — Okeafor is likely out for the season after suffering a torn bicep muscle last week. Owners looking to use Okeafor as a DL and get OLB stat lines are going to have to find another option to exploit the “Bryan Thomas” classification loophole.
• MLB Ahmad Brooks — Caleb Miller replaced Brooks in nickel situations in the first preseason game despite earlier indications that Brooks would be an every down linebacker. There’s still time for Brooks to prove himself in coverage and the team has praised his effort in practice, but this isn’t a good start to 2007.
• FS Will Demps — The Giants began camp with Gibril Wilson at FS, James Butler at SS and Demps, who was one of the better producing free safeties in IDP leagues last year, on the second team. Demps is apparently rotating in with the first team again this week but the writing may be on the wall for him.
• MLB Brian Simmons — A nagging chronic knee problem and the surprisingly consistent play of last year’s starter Mark Simoneau has Simmons stuck on the second team. If Simmons can’t get on the field and impress soon, he’ll have a hard time securing any IDP value in 2007 without an injury to another starter.
• WLB Keith Ellison — While it may not be set in stone yet, Ellison sat in nickel situations during the first preseason game. Though it appears Ellison will shift with the offensive formation to remain a WLB on all base defensive snaps, sitting in the nickel will keep him from becoming more than a LB3.
• OLB Bryan Thomas — The NFL.com gamebook and Jets official depth chart has finally be updated to reflect Thomas’ correct position as an OLB. Those holding out hope that Thomas will remain a DL in your IDP league have hopefully already made other arrangements.

Other ongoing storylines:

Patrick Willis is still behind Derek Smith at RILB in the 49er base defense. Roman Harper looks fully recovered and may play linebacker in the nickel defense for New Orleans. Demorrio Williams has been cleared for contact nearly a month before he was expected to return and is running with the first team in Atlanta. Gibril Wilson has been tabbed for the big play FS role that Brian Dawkins played in Philadelphia. Eagle LB Takeo Spikes is turning heads in camp and may have recovered his sideline-to-sideline range.

Keep an eye on our free IDP centered message board at FootballGuys for breaking news and quick analysis on the defensive side of the ball. And watch for our new weekly IDP podcast on The Audible which will debut next week.

On Monday and Tuesday, we tried to decide who would be the better NFL RB, Reggie Bush or Maurice Jones-Drew. In the end, both were projected to have excellent careers. But let’s take a look at their rookie seasons from a different angle now, one commonly promoted by fans of either as reason for optimism in ‘07.

From weeks 10 through 17 last year, Reggie Bush and Maurice Jones-Drew ranked as the 8th and 4th best fantasy RBs, respectively. This was a large improvement from the first half of the season, when Bush ranked 38th and Jones-Drew ranked 20th at the end of week nine. So it’s easy to see why fantasy owners are excited about the prospects for Bush and Jones-Drew, but is it warranted? Bush’s average draft position is towards the end of the first round, while MJD’s is being selected int he early to middle parts of round two. In fantasy leagues that reward points per reception, both are drafted even earlier.

It’s been argued many times over that the light went on for Reggie Bush, and he adjusted to the pro game in the middle of last year. If that was the case, then it certainly seems appropriate to expect Bush to play like the 8th best RB and not the 38th best. But remember that sometimes splits happen with no explanation at all. Further, Bush’s big game of the season happened when Marques Colston was on the sidelines, and the 67 rushing yards in week 1 were his second highest total of the season. Bush’s strong playoff performance shouldn’t be ignored, but neither should the careers of Kevin Jones and William Green.

Like Bush, Green had a subpar YPC average as a rookie in 2002 (3.7), but the last seven weeks of the season he ran for 708 yards and averaged 4.2 yards per carry. It was certainly easy to claim that “the light went on” for Green, and in fact, many thought he’d be a stud in 2003. Green never regained the success from the second half of his rookie season, though, and was out of football last year.

Kevin Jones led the league with over 900 rushing yards in the second half of 2004, his rookie season. He averaged 5.3 YPC, and he was expected to be a stud in 2005. He was drafted as a top 12 RB that year, but was one of the biggest busts of the season.

It’s easy to say that Bush and Jones-Drew are way better running backs than Green and Jones. But that’s only because of what we’ve seen since the rookie years of Green and Jones. It’s non-controversial to state that Bush has about a million times more talent than Willie Green did. But would you have said that after Green carried his Browns into the playoffs by rushing for 178 yards and two scores against the 9-5-1 Falcons in week 17?

Regardless, the question I want to look at today is whether rookie RBs that perform better at the end of the year play better the next season than those that hit the rookie wall.

Jones-Drew (13th best) and Reggie Bush (18th) were among the 26 rookie running backs since 1996 to total over 1,000 yards from scrimmage. The group was evenly split with respect to yards per carry average: twelve saw their YPC decrease as the season went on, twelve saw it increase, and two saw no change. When looking at fantasy points, the picture was much clearer: only seven saw their fantasy production decrease as the season went on, and only two or three of those seven were significant.

While some people like to use first and second half splits, the arbitrariness of those numbers often fails to reflect a true change in production. Instead, I like to use a weighted average formula to note progression:

Adjusted Fantasy Points =

1*(Game 1 FPs) + 2*(Gm 2 FPs) + 3*(Gm 3 FPs) + … + 16*(Gm 16 FPs)
————————————————————————————————————-

1 + 2 + 3 + … + 16

Here’s a table of all 26 RBs, with the fantasy players that improved the most during their rookie seasons at the top. The “Improve” column is simply the adjusted FPs minus the actual fantasy points. The last column shows how many FPs each player scored in their sophomore season:

Name			Year	Team	FP	adjFP	Improve	Next Year
Clinton Portis		2002	den	289.2	354.3	65.1	274.5
William Green		2002	cle	136.0	191.5	55.5	 66.9
Corey Dillon		1997	cin	198.8	241.4	42.6	160.8
Maurice Jones-Drew	2006	jax	227.7	269.1	41.4	 --
Kevin Jones		2004	det	167.3	207.9	40.6	107.3
Willis McGahee		2004	buf	207.7	247.7	40.0	172.5
Jamal Lewis		2000	rav	202.0	241.2	39.2	 --
Dominic Rhodes		2001	clt	186.8	216.1	29.3	 --
Reggie Bush		2006	nor	178.7	207.4	28.7	 --
Anthony Thomas		2001	chi	178.1	201.3	23.2	124.4
Mike Anderson		2000	den	255.6	278.1	22.5	 96.4
Edgerrin James		1999	clt	315.9	337.2	21.3	338.3
Domanick Williams	2003	htx	186.2	207.3	21.1	261.6
Fred Taylor		1998	jax	266.4	284.5	18.1	117.5
Marcel Shipp		2002	crd	178.7	192.0	13.3	101.4
Ricky Williams		1999	nor	117.6	128.3	10.7	194.9
Eddie George		1996	oti	203.0	212.8	 9.8	186.3
Joseph Addai		2006	clt	188.6	193.9	 5.3	 --
Olandis Gary		1999	den	173.8	178.1	 4.3	  9.0
Cadillac Williams	2005	tam	161.9	160.0	-1.9	105.4
Antowain Smith		1997	buf	149.7	144.9	-4.8	161.5
Robert Edwards		1998	nwe	216.6	211.1	-5.5	 --
Karim Abdul-Jabbar	1996	mia	191.5	184.6	-6.9	211.3
Warrick Dunn		1997	tam	186.0	175.6  -10.4	149.0
Ronnie Brown		2005	mia	143.9	128.9  -15.0	158.4
LaDainian Tomlinson	2001	sdg	220.3	194.4  -25.9	307.2

Twenty of the 26 RBs played in the NFL the following season (Jones-Drew, Bush and Addai have yet to play their second seasons, while Jamal Lewis, Dominic Rhodes and Robert Edwards all suffered season-ending injuries before the next regular season). Olandis Gary tore his ACL in the season opener the next year, and Mike Anderson’s role changed significantly, leaving just 18 runners to examine.

Only Portis, Dillon and Green had better improvement as rookies than Jones-Drew. None of those three matched their rookie production the next year, though, and only Portis was close. William Green was a huge bust, and Dillon played nowhere near as well as he did towards the end of 1996. Further, the next big improvers — Kevin Jones, Willis McGahee and Anthony Thomas — also were busts as sophomores. Only Edge, Dom (Davis) Williams and Ricky Williams were able to even match their rookie production the following year.

On the other side, Antowain Smith, Karim Abdul-Jabbar, Ronnie Brown and Tomlinson were slow finishers that improved the next season. So four of the six strong starters improved on their overall rookie production, while only three of the thirteen fast finishers improved on their overall production. While it’s worth noting that all three also bested their adjusted fantasy point totals, this evidence would seem to go strongly against intuition. We shouldn’t expect to see the Reggie Bush or MJD from the second half of ‘06, and might be lucky to just see what we got out of them last year.

I used the same formula to compute adjusted yards per carry, but used Rushing Yards in the numerator and Carries in the denominator.

Adjusted YPC =

1*(Game 1 Rush Yards) + 2*(Gm 2 RYds) + 3*(Gm 3 RYds) + … + 16*(Gm 16 RYds)
————————————————————————————————————-

1*(Game 1 Rushes) + 2*(Gm 2 Rsh) + 3*(Gm 3 Rsh) + … + 16*(Gm 16 Rsh)

Here’s the full list, along with their sophomore production (min: 100 carries):

Name			Year	Team	YPC	adjYPC	Improve	Next Year
Reggie Bush		2006	nor	3.65	4.13	 0.48	 --
William Green		2002	cle	3.65	4.05	 0.40	3.94
Olandis Gary		1999	den	4.20	4.56	 0.36	 --
Clinton Portis		2002	den	5.52	5.80	 0.28	5.49
Maurice Jones-Drew	2006	jax	5.67	5.92	 0.25	 --
Kevin Jones		2004	det	4.70	4.94	 0.24	3.57
Corey Dillon		1997	cin	4.85	4.98	 0.13	4.31
Willis McGahee		2004	buf	3.97	4.10	 0.13	3.84
Mike Anderson		2000	den	5.01	5.12	 0.12	3.87
Edgerrin James		1999	clt	4.21	4.32	 0.11	4.42
Robert Edwards		1998	nwe	3.83	3.91	 0.08	 --
Karim Abdul-Jabbar	1996	mia	3.64	3.70	 0.06	3.15
LaDainian Tomlinson	2001	sdg	3.65	3.65	 0.00	4.52
Dominic Rhodes		2001	clt	4.74	4.74	 0.00	 --
Joseph Addai		2006	clt	4.78	4.73	-0.05	 --
Jamal Lewis		2000	rav	4.41	4.35	-0.06	 --
Warrick Dunn		1997	tam	4.37	4.29	-0.08	4.19
Cadillac Williams	2005	tam	4.06	3.93	-0.13	3.55
Ricky Williams		1999	nor	3.49	3.35	-0.15	4.03
Domanick Williams	2003	htx	4.33	4.18	-0.15	3.93
Anthony Thomas		2001	chi	4.26	4.10	-0.16	3.37
Ronnie Brown		2005	mia	4.38	4.21	-0.17	4.18
Eddie George		1996	oti	4.08	3.88	-0.21	3.92
Marcel Shipp		2002	crd	4.44	4.19	-0.25	3.64
Fred Taylor		1998	jax	4.63	4.37	-0.26	4.60
Antowain Smith		1997	buf	4.33	3.91	-0.42	3.75

Reggie tops the list this time, as he really made great strides last year. But remember, William Green is second on that list. On the fast finishers side, of the eight RBs that played their sophomore seasons, only two of them improved. One was Green, who was still a big time bust for the Browns. The other was Edgerrin James. For the strong starters, only one out of ten — Ricky Williams — bested his rookie YPC average. Antowain Smith and Anthony Thomas ended the year poorly, and things never turned around for them the next season.

So what’s it all mean? Will Bush or Drew be the next Edgerrin James or the next William Green? Perhaps most notably, only four of the 18 RBs — James, Ricky Williams, Dom Williams and Tomlinson — had better years as sophomores. Fourteen RBs totaled over 1,000 yards as rookies, were poised to breakout, but then regressed the following year. And it doesn’t look like the great finishes in 2006 by Bush or Jones-Drew should make them immune from suffering similar fates.

In Part I, we looked at the rookie seasons and draft values of all RBs drafted between 1978 and 1997. We found out that Reggie Bush, as a result of his significantly higher draft value, still was projected for slightly more remaining career rushing yards than Drew. However, rushing yards doesn’t tell the whole story. Jones-Drew averaged 5.7 YPC, which is incredible. Reggie Bush scored 178 fantasy points, which is very high for a RB with just 565 rushing yards.

Let’s start with fantasy points. Using the same technique as we did before, we can perform a regression analysis to find career fantasy points scored, using fantasy points scored as a rookie and draft value as our two variables. Here’s the formula:

Remaining career FPs = 107.6 + 0.14 * (Draft Value) + 3.58 * (rookie FPs)

What’s that mean? If Tony Hunt (Pick 90, Draft Value = 140) scores 31 fantasy points this year, we’d project him to score about 238 fantasy points for the rest of his career. If he breaks out and scores 150 FPs, we’d up that projection to 664 fantasy points. If Titans’ rookie Chris Henry (Pick 50, draft value 400) scores 34 fantasy points, we’d project him out at 285 fantasy points for the remainder of his career. If Chris Henry scores 150 FPs, his projection moves up to 701 FPs. But Marshawn Lynch (Pick 12, Draft Value 1200) only needs 119 FPs to be projected for 701 remaining fantasy points.

Once again, I think those numbers don’t feel too out of whack with what your intuition would tell you. How do Reggie and Maurice stack up? Bush (DV = 2600) scored 178 fantasy points last year, projecting him out at 1,109 career fantasy points. Jones-Drew (DV = 300) scored a whopping 228 fantasy points last year, which translates to a prediction of “just” 966 career fantasy points. The extra 50 fantasy points aren’t enough to counteract the 2300 point difference in pick value. Don’t forget that Freeman McNeil and Garrison Hearst both scored under 100 FPs as rookies, but the former number three overall picks would each end up topping 1200 career fantasy points. While it makes sense to put a lot of stock in what players do in the NFL, one rookie season is a pretty small sample compared to three or four years of college and a draft combine.

On the other hand, what about yards per carry? Jones-Drew’s sparkling 5.67 YPC is one of the biggest reasons people are so bullish on his future. In fact, since 1970, only two others RBs with a minimum of 100 carries have hit 5.5 YPC as a rookie: Clinton Portis and Franco Harris. That’s pretty good company. And just as interesting, Reggie Bush averaged only 3.65 YPC, over two yards per carry fewer than Jones-Drew.

I looked at all rookie RBs from 1978-1997 with a minimum of 100 carries, and ran a regression using yards per carry and draft value to predict fantasy points for the remainder of their careers. Here’s the formula:

Remaining fantasy points = -792 + 0.26 * (Draft Value) + 320 * (Rookie Year Yards Per Carry Average)

Jones-Drew (draft value 300, YPC = 5.67) is now projected to score 1110 more fantasy points the rest of his career. This feels about right: he was projected at 966 when looking at just last year’s total fantasy points, but deservedly gets a big boost when using yards per carry as a variable. Bush (draft value 2600, YPC = 3.65) is projected for 1,052 fantasy points, which is still pretty good. That’s only a small downgrade from before, when we ignored Bush’s low YPC average. Why? The sample here is different, because we’re only looking at RBs with 100 or more carries as a rookie. The nine RBs drafted in the top three over this 20 year span averaged over 1500 career fantasy points. Only one — Blair Thomas — was a bust. So the draft value variable here got a nice boost.

Finally, let’s combine rookie fantasy points, rookie yards per carry average and draft value and see what we get:

Rest of career fantasy points = -515 + 0.10 * (Draft Value) + 130 * (YPC) + 4.5 * (FPs)

Jones-Drew’s projected soars to 1282 fantasy points for the rest of his career. Reggie Bush is projected for 1024 fantasy points. Bush got a 231 point head start due to his draft position, but loses 263 points to Drew due to the large YPC difference, and another 226 FPs because of the 50 point difference the players scored last year. Interestingly enough, the relatively small 50 point difference in points scored last year is weighed almost as heavily as the enormous YPC differential. Why is a low YPC average for a rookie not so terrifying? Emmitt Smith (3.9 YPC average as a rookie, 3,025 fantasy points scored the rest of his career), Marshall Faulk (4.1, 2,479), Curtis Martin (4.0, 2,078), Tiki Barber (3.8, 1860), Roger Craig (4.1, 1561), Eddie George (4.1, 1532), Charlie Garner (3.7, 1322) and James Wilder (3.5, 1115) all had great careers despite not running very well as rookies. The fact that Barber, Garner and Wilder — all excellent receivers — had similar YPC averages to Bush is good news for Bush fans.

For Jones-Drew, the news is even better. The 11 RBs to score 228 or more FPs during their rookie season averaged 1,472 FPs for the remainder of their careers. Don’t forget that the NFL’s 4th all-time leading rusher — Curtis Martin — was a third round pick who had an incredible rookie year and never looked back.

One note: Herschel Walker was drafted in the 5th round due to his involvement with the USFL, and considered a 5th round pick for this study, despite undoubtedly being an elite, top-ten pick talent. To a small extent, that may understate the value of being a high draft pick, because he’s not morally one of the low round picks to succeed.

Check out Part III, tomorrow, though. The news doesn’t always stay good for our second year stars.

Reggie Bush and Maurice Jones-Drew are two of the most exciting and talented young players in the league. Both have the necessary skills to earn annual trips to Honolulu. Bush, of course, was a Heisman Trophy winner and top three pick in the NFL draft … just like O.J. Simpson, Tony Dorsett, Earl Campbell, Bo Jackson and Barry Sanders. Jones-Drew averaged over 5.5 YPC and rushed for 12+ TDs last year, joining an elite club consisting of only Drew, Jim Brown, O.J Simpson, Eric Dickerson and Clinton Portis. And only Portis did that as a rookie.

It is not controversial to state that Bush was viewed as the better prospect and that MJD had a better rookie season. The key question now, is which one trumps the other? Forgetting the names for a minute, which RB would you expect to have the better career: the highly touted prospect or the rookie stud? Reuben Mayes rushed for 1353 yards at 4.7 yards per carry as a rookie, but had just 2,131 more rushing yards the rest of his career. Additionally, John Stephens, Karim Abdul-Jabbar, Greg Bell and Terry Miller all had 1,000 yard rookie seasons, but fizzled out quickly. On the other hand, we know that high draft position doesn’t mean everything, either. Ki-Jana Carter, Brent Fullwood, Blair Thomas, Alonzo Highsmith, and, well, Terry Miller, were top five draft picks that recorded fewer than 2,500 rushing yards in their careers.

I looked at all RBs drafted from 1978 to 1997. That gives us 20 years worth of drafts, with little worry about active players. There are a few guys still remaining, but Tiki Barber and Corey Dillon just retired from that ‘97 draft class, and I doubt we’ll be seeing significant changes to career totals to cause concern. Here’s a pretty intuitive chart:

Draft Pick   #RBs      Career Rush Yards
1  -  3       13       7132
4  - 10       15       4663
11 - 20       29       3642
21 - 40       54       2930
41 - 70       57