Now that the NFL Draft is in the books, we are standing on the cusp of the NFL preseason. During the coming weeks, rookie mini-camps will grind into gear and hard-core fantasy owners will start the process of evaluating this year’s draft picks potential for “instant impact” during 2008. In redraft fantasy football leagues, one key requirement for the kind of production that fantasy owners crave is opportunity. A player like TE Martellus Bennett (a 2nd-round selection by Dallas) may have all the talent in the world, but his chances for a meaningful 2008 season in fantasy terms are very slight due to being buried on the depth chart behind All-Pro TE Jason Witten.

The below is a preliminary list of the top rookie prospects for redraft fantasy leagues, given their new NFL homes.

Rookie Running Backs

The running back position is where the fantasy gems among the rookies are most likely to be found. While it is true that for every Adrian Peterson (Minnesota) or Joseph Addai one can point at, there are also players like J.J. Arrington or Chris Perry who serve as a counter-examples, it is also true that running backs tend to make the quickest transition to playing at the NFL level. A fantasy owner is most likely to find an “instant impact” player among the rookie running backs in any given calendar year.

Jonathan Stewart is probably the best bet at running back to generate fantasy impact during his rookie season. He is the sort of running back that the Panthers’ coaching staff prefers, and they have been retooling their offensive line for a power running attack - Stewart fits the mold that Carolina is built to utilize. DeAngelo Williams simply isn’t the player the coaching staff wants to rely on as their #1 RB - he is better suited to a change-of-pace, 3rd-down role in their scheme. Stewart figures to have plenty of touches on the ball with the Panthers this year.

Darren McFadden is a boom-or-bust type prospect. Yes, he has the type of speed and top gear that make him a threat to go to the house on every down, and he projects to be the starter with the Raiders (assuming his contract negotiations go well and he avoids a JaMarcus Russell-type holdout scenario). However, there is a crowded RB stable in Oakland, with Justin Fargas coming off a 1000+ yard season - if McFadden struggles with the pro game, he may not get many chances to redeem himself.

Kevin Smith lands with the Lions, who really like his game and seem to be indicating that the starting job is his to lose during 2008. We’ll see if their actions match their draft-day rhetoric - but Tatum Bell hasn’t looked like the answer since he arrived in Detroit, and as of today, he is the only other back of note on the team. If Smith impresses in training camp it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him starting for the Lions in September.

Matt Forte comes into a by-committee backfield situation, with both Cedric Benson and Adrian Peterson grinding out 3.4 yards per carry last season. Peterson was far more productive than Benson in the passing game (51/420/0 receiving vs. 17/123/0) and actually led the team in total yardage and fantasy points at the RB position last year. Benson has greatly underperformed his draft slot (1st round -4th pick in 2005) and may find himself riding the pine if Forte proves that he outperform Benson during training camp.

Rashard Mendenhall is likely to be Willie Parker’s primary backup for this year, but given Parker’s difficulty at the goal-line last year (321/1316/2 rushing), Mendenhall could find a role as the Steelers’ goal-line back (Najeh Davenport gained 107/499/5 rushing and 18/184/2 as the Steelers’ big back/change of pace back last year). If Mendenhall seals the #2 job with Pittsburgh, he could have value in basic scoring leagues (any league where TD production is the primary scoring criteria).

Felix Jones joins fellow rookie Tashard Choice as the new backups to Marion Barber III. Barber looks set to carry the majority of the load for Dallas, but Jones’ outside speed will give him a shot to earn playing time as the 3rd down back/passing down back - depending on how quickly Jones picks up the Cowboys’ offense and learns to pick up the blitz.

Rookie Wide Receivers

Second to the running backs, rookie WRs occasionally step into the NFL and make fantasy owners’ seasons. The most obvious example of this phenomenon would be Randy Moss’s first incredible season (69/1313/17) with Minnesota (he was the #1 fantasy WR as a rookie) - Larry Fitzgerald’s 58/780/8 as a rookie was also pretty outstanding for a rookie WR (30th best fantasy WR during 2004). However, it is far more often the case that rookie WRs bust (especially in their first season of NFL action). The last time I fell hard for a rookie WR’s potential, I ended up having Rashaun Woods among my preseason top 36 fantasy prospects - only to watch him fail miserably at the NFL level. Now-a-days, it is my rule of thumb that exactly zero rookie WRs land among my top 40 or so fantasy prospects until they have proven their skills extensively in training camp and preseason games - and even then I tend to be conservative about drafting them early - I would urge fantasy owners to be very leery of rookie wideouts.

James Hardy appears to have landed in the best situation among the draftees, with a legitimate shot at capturing the #2 wide receiver position on the Buffalo Bills. Other than Lee Evans, the Bills’ WRs generated 1 receiving TD last year (Josh Reed was #2 in yardage with 51/578/0) - not exactly what the coaching staff was looking for, to say the least. However, don’t go overboard with your enthusiasm for Hardy - the Bills were 30th in the NFL when it came to passing offense, so his ceiling as the #2 WR (if he gets that far) is relatively low compared to a player on a franchise like New England.

DeSean Jackson figures to be in the mix in Philadelphia, but the team spreads the ball around quite a bit - the 2nd best receiver on the Eagles over the past two years failed to get over 800 yards receiving or score more than 5 times, and the players at WR3 and below are non-factors in fantasy terms.

Devin Thomas may challenge for playing time in Washington, but with a developing young QB in Jason Campbell and an entrenched #1 WR in Santana Moss combined with a high-scoring TE hogging red-zone chances (Chris Cooley has 6 or more TDs in each of his first 4 seasons) - Thomas will have significant obstacles to overcome before he starts putting up the kind of statistics that make fantasy owners excited.

Malcolm Kelly - see Devin Thomas above.

Jerome Simpson landed with Cincinnati while the Bengals are searching for a replacement WR3 - if he can wow the coaching staff in training camp and sew up the WR3 spot, he could put up decent numbers now and then during 2008.

Rookie Quarterbacks

Excepting Peyton Manning , the exception who proves the rule, no rookie QB has been a fantasy standout during recent memory - even Dan Marino took one season to get up to speed before exploding during his second campaign way back in 1984. Unless you are convinced that Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco or any of the other draftees this year are of the caliber of a Peyton Manning or a Dan Marino, you should probably pass on them during your redraft league’s annual draft.

Matt Ryan will likely get his chance to start during 2008, perhaps early on in the season if Chris Redman falters during training camp. Ryan is sure to suffer typical rookie growing pains once he does get into the lineup, so he probably won’t have any games worth mentioning until very late in the season, if then.

Joe Flacco may be the heir apparent in Baltimore, but he’s currently buried behind Kyle Boller and Troy Smith (last year’s draft pick at the position). The Ravens got burned the last time they rushed a QB into the starting lineup (witness Boller’s checkered career with Baltimore) - they aren’t likely to make the same mistake with Flacco. He’ll likely carry the clipboard after preseason, with occasional spot duty in blow out wins or losses.

Rookie Tight Ends

Rookie tight ends are very seldom worth drafting - Tony Gonzalez scored 2 TDs in his rookie campaign (33/368/2), as did Antonio Gates (24/389/2), as did the ultra-hyped rookie TE of 2007, Greg Olsen (39/391/2). The three above examples are actually best-case scenarios for the vast majority of rookie TEs - the position is very demanding at the pro level and it simply takes more than 1 training camp and regular season to absorb all the duties that are asked of a pro TE. Among the 2008 draftees, expect 300+ and 1-2 TDs to be a ceiling when you are crafting your projections.

New Seahawk John Carlson will battle Jeb Putzier for playing time during 2008, and could end up starting for Seattle sooner rather than later. He is the TE prospect who landed in the best situation (such as it is) from the fantasy perspective.

Dustin Keller arrives to the Jets via a first round pick, but he’ll have to earn his way into the starting lineup - solid-but-unspectacular Chris Baker has scored 4 TDs in 2 of the past 4 seasons, and posted 41/409/3 last year. Keller will have the opportunity to learn the position from Baker and another veteran TE, Bubba Franks, this season. Keller is a guy to watch as the year progresses - he might be worth a flyer in free agency late in the season (just before fantasy playoffs) if he manages to earn playing time during 2008.

The NFL Draft is an exciting time of year for football junkies, but it is just the beginning of a long process. Don’t let your draft weekend enthusiasm drown out your better judgement as you prepare your preliminary draft lists for 2008. We have yet to get an inkling who among the draftees will fulfill their promise, which ones will outperform expectations - and how many will go bust in their first season as a pro football players.

2.32: Phillip Merling, DE, Miami Dolphins

Pass rusher had some injury woes but was effective off the edge when healthy. Has the size (6′5″, 272 pounds) that Bill Parcells covets. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.33: Donnie Avery, WR, St. Louis Rams

Quite a surprise. The first WR off the board is a small, uber fast guy considered a mid round pick by most scouts. Hard to believe he can replace Isaac Bruce without a few years of seasoning. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.34: Devin Thomas, WR, Washington Redskins (via Oakland through Atlanta)

The Redskins draft the WR many expected to be first off the WR board. Devin Thomas only had one big year at Michigan but has great size (6′2″, 215 pounds) and can also help as a kickoff returner. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.35: Brandon Flowers, CB, Kansas City Chiefs

If Flowers ran a tenth of a second faster, he would’ve been a mid 1st rounder. Great choice for the rebuilding Chiefs. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.36: Jordy Nelson, WR, Green Bay Packers (via New York Jets)

Another surprising WR selection. Was WR really a need for Green Bay with Driver, Jennings and Jones on the roster? Should help on special teams right away. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.37: Curtis Lofton, LB, Atlanta Falcons

Tackling machine, ideally suited for the inside where he can flow downfield to the ball. Not someone good in space and must be put in the right scheme to succeed. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.38: John Carlson, TE, Seattle Seahawks (via Baltimore)

Mike Holmgren called this a need, and the ‘hawks felt Carlson was a perfect fit for their West Coast offense. Carlson put up big numbers with Brady Quinn under center, as a reminder. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.39: Chilo Rachal, OG, San Francisco 49ers

Rachal gets knocked for not being a great athlete, but he’s technically sound and has a mean streak. As long as he plays inside and isn’t asked to pull and extend to the 2nd level much, he could be a starter immediately. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.40: Tracy Porter, CB, New Orleans Saints

Ironic that the Saints draft a cornerback with the 40th pick; considering there were rumors all week that the 40th pick would be part of a package to acquire Eagles CB Lito Sheppard. Porter is good at tracking the ball but isn’t a sure tackler or much help supporting the run.

2.41: James Hardy, WR, Buffalo Bills

The Bills landed the top corner in the draft last round and, in my opinion, the best receiver in the draft at 2.41. Hardy is a big guy who isn’t afraid of contact. He goes up for the ball and runs good routes; which helps offset a lack of breakaway speed.

2.42: Eddie Royal, WR, Denver Broncos

Royal is one of a handful of receivers who also project as solid returner at the next level. At only 5′8″, 184 pounds, Royal will need to prove he can hold up as a receiver over the course of the season. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.43: Tyrell Johnson, S, Minnesota Vikings (via Carolina through Philadelphia)

Kenny Phillips has the bigger name, but Johnson may have the bigger game. The Vikes continue to bolster their defense with another solid young, physical player. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.44: Matt Forte, RB, Chicago Bears

I’m not crazy about Forte; I don’t believe he’s a special back nor was he the best back left on the board. However, Forte has his supporters and it’s not inconceivable he could earn the starting gig over Cedric Benson sooner rather than later.

2.45: Jordon Dizon, OLB, Detroit Lions

Dizon lacks ideal size and speed; but like many solid NFL linebackers before him, he just makes plays. He’s instinctive and a sound tackler; exactly the kind of guy Rod Marinelli can build around. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.46: Jerome Simpson, WR, Cincinnati Bengals

Further proof that beauty is in the eye of the beholder at WR this year. Simpson wasn’t close to the best WR prospect on the board, but clearly the Bengals felt otherwise. At least, this pick fills a need given the release of Chris Henry and concerns about Chad Johnson’s status.

2.47: Trevor Laws, DT, Philadelphia Eagles (via Minnesota)

The Eagles finally make a pick, and it’s clearly a “best player available” selection. Defensive tackle was hardly a major need, but Laws is a high character, high motor guy who will add depth to an already young tackle rotation.

2.48: Fred Davis, TE, Washington Redskins (via Houston through Atlanta)

The Redskins are committed to getting QB Jason Campbell weapons. First Devin Thomas and now a pass-receiving tight end a few picks later. Davis doesn’t project into an elite tight end, but the Redskins don’t need him to be given the presence of Chris Cooley.

2.49: DeSean Jackson, WR/KR, Philadelphia Eagles

Many Birds fans wouldn’t have complained if Jackson was the pick in the 1st round. So to trade down, grab a 2009 1st rounder as compensation and get DeSean anyway was a coup. He’s tiny (169 pounds) but is blazing fast and unstoppable in the open field. He instantly gives the Eagles the best returner they’ve had in 5 years.

2.50: Calais Campbell, DE, Arizona Cardinals

You don’t find many 6′8″, 280 pound ends; yet Campbell fell into the 2nd round because of an uneven 2007 season. He was a stud in 2006 and, as long as the Cards play him at the right position, should combine with free agent Clark Haggans to improve the Cards pass rush.

2.51: Malcolm Kelly, WR, Washington Redskins

Sure, he’s slower than you would like. But have teams watched this kid play? He’s a polished route runner, has great hands and excellent body control. Very reminiscent of the year Chad Johnson fell because of his slow 40-time; the Skins got a steal.

2.52: Quentin Groves, DE, Jacksonville Jaguars (via Tampa Bay)

The Jags have a stifling defense already, but they aren’t great at putting pressure on opposing QBs. Adding Quentin Groves in the 2nd after taking Derrick Harvey 8th overall goes a long way to changing the Jags pass rush. Groves character issues aside, this was a solid pick.

2.53: Limas Sweed, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers

Some scouts love Sweed, some see him as a bust. At 53rd overall, the Steelers aren’t risking a lot financially to find out if he’s the next Plaxico Burress. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.54: Jason Jones, DE, Tennessee Titans

Jones could replace Antwan Odom right away, but he’s a bit raw to expect that. Eventually the Titans see Jones as a capable 2-way end in their 4-3 defense. His skill set is more suited to defensive tackle, but his size projects him as an end.

2.55: Ray Rice, RB, Baltimore Ravens (via Seattle)

Ray Rice is a local product who was wildly productive as the main ball carrier for Rutgers. While he lacks prototypical size, his low center of gravity and style make him more than capable of being an every down back if needed.

2.56: Brian Brohm, QB, Green Bay Packers (via Cleveland)

Now that’s kind of surprising. Or is it? The Pack took Aaron Rodgers in the 1st when Brett Favre was under center, so why wouldn’t they take the most accurate QB prospect in the 2nd round given Rodgers inexperience? Worst case, he’s a backup for a few years. Best case, he outplays Rodgers and ends up starting in a year or two.

2.57: Chad Henne, QB, Miami Dolphins (via San Diego)

How about that? It looks like Jake Long may be blocking for Chad Henne for a few more years. Another smart pick. He could easily outplay Beck and McCown to win the job; at the very lesaet he’s a big armed, young backup for a good price.

2.58: Dexter Jackson, WR/KR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (via Jacksonville)

This was a reach pick. While Jackson is another potentially dangerous return man; he needs a lot of maturing as a route runner before he can reasonably play WR on a regular basis. Blistering speed (4.33) though and dangerous in the open field.

2.59: Mike Pollak, OG/C, Indianapolis Colts

A classic Colts pick. Their only 1st day pick and it’s a fundamentally sound center that they project as a starting offensive guard for now and possibly a replacement for Jeff Saturday later. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.60: Patrick Lee, DB, Green Bay Packers

A hard worker, Lee may someday start at corner but not for a few seasons. In the meantime, he can be a force on special teams and perhaps play nickel back particularly in run support situations. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.61: Martellus Bennett, TE, Dallas Cowboys

I like this pick more than most. For my money, Bennett was the top TE in this draft. He’s huge, is a good blocker who can become great, and should be a key red zone target given his height and willingness to go up for the ball. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.62: Terrence Wheatley, CB, New England Patriots

The Pats always seem to find value and this was no exception. Wheatley is a legitimate shutdown cover corner who, were it not for myriad injuries in college, would’ve been in the hunt for a top 15 selection. Either way, he’ll help the Pats on defense and special teams.

2.63: Terrell Thomas, CB, New York Giants

Thomas is the 217th USC Trojan to be drafted in the first two rounds (not really, just feels that way). If the Giants view him as a corner, I don’t like this pick. But if they’re going to try to convert him to safety; where his deficiencies can be obfuscated somewhat, the choice makes more sense.

A few weeks ago, shortly after Joe Gibbs announced he wouldn’t return to coach the Redskins; it was widely believed that either Al Saunders or Gregg Williams would succeed him as the team’s head coach. Then, both were unceremoniously fired and Jim Zorn and Greg Blache were named OC and DC, respectively; despite the team having yet to hire a head coach.

Zorn, who spent the bulk of this decade coaching Matt Hasselbeck in Seattle as the QB coach, was a surprise hire as OC; but one that is well versed in a variety of offensive styles. Blache, who was one of Williams’ defensive assistants, was less surprising since he was already on staff and had experience as a coordinator in Chicago.

Over the last few weeks, we’ve been left to wonder who Daniel Snyder would hire as head coach; with a ready made set of assistants in place. Jim Fassel was “the guy” according to a lot of pundits [who I’m increasingly starting to think have no real edge in their sources]; while names like Steve Mariucci, Steve Spagnuolo and Ron Meeks were bandied about.

And now, after much speculation and fanfare…the Redskins have hired their head coach.

JIM ZORN.

Yes, leave it to Daniel Snyder to poach his own freshly hired coordinator for a job on the same staff. While official contract details haven’t been released, several sources say Zorn has signed a 5-year, $15mm deal to replace Joe Gibbs. To say this move is surprising would be an understatement. Zorn has never called plays in the NFL and now will be responsible for replacing a Hall of Fame head coach.

But just because the hire is unconventional; doesn’t mean it was ill conceived. Personally, I think the Redskins are far better off giving a young up-and-comer like Zorn a try than a retread like Jim Fassel who has modest success in New York and was a complete washout as OC in Baltimore. While many will harp on Zorn’s lack of experience (he’s never been a coordinator), let’s not forget that Snyder has watched the Andy Reid-led Philadelphia Eagles dominate the NFC East for the better part of the new millennium. For those with short memories, recall that Reid - like Zorn - was hired as a head coach after serving as a QB coach. Reid - like Zorn - had no NFL coordinator experience. Reid - like Zorn - honed his craft at the side of Mike Holmgren.

Ultimately whether Jim Zorn is successful in Washington; it won’t be because he never called plays or ran a franchise before this hire. I say kudos on the bold move; the Skins face daunting competition from arguably the toughest division opponents in the league. A “safe” hire would’ve been the easy, but wrong move to make.

Dallas Cowboys

Option 1: OT Flozell Adams

Flozell Adams is an unrestricted free agent and could garner a tag if the team feels his services are indispensable. Adams is a 4-time Pro Bowler and played at an extremely high level in 2007. But at 32 years old (he’ll be 33 in May), he’s not someone that is really in line to get a long-term deal. If he’s unwilling to accept a 3-year deal; the team may have no choice but to tag him.

Option 2: S Ken Hamlin

Ken Hamlin is the best safety available in free agency and helped solidify a former weak spot this year. Franchising a safety is less of an economic burden than tackle; but it’s arguably easier to replace a safety via the draft than it is to find another offensive book end.

     

New York Giants

The Giants are unlikely to use the tag designations this offseason. Their only major free agents (Gibril Wilson, Reggie Torbor and Kawika Mitchell) are worthy of contract extensions but it would be difficult to justify paying any of them money that equates to the best at their respective positions.

Philadelphia Eagles

TE L.J. Smith

The Eagles have assigned the franchise tag designation to L.J. Smith; guaranteeing him $4.5mm this season (if he signs the tender). Although Smith was injured for much of the 2007 season, tagging him makes imminent sense given the lack of attractive alternatives in free agency. The Eagles get a chance to evaluate Smith before deciding whether to extend him long-term, and in turn Smith gets top 5 money despite a disappointing 2007 season. A win/win.

Washington Redskins

Much like the Giants, it’s unlikely the Redskins will use their tag designations this offseason. The Redskins have no marquee free agents that would justify the financial commitment, and happen to be the only team projected to be signficantly over the salary cap entering free agency.

Joe Gibbs announced his retirement today; citing a desire to spend more time with his family. While the move is certainly understandable given Gibbs’ age, the stresses of coaching an NFL team, and the turmoil surrounding the Redskins’ season (most notably the death of Sean Taylor)…the move surprised many because the Skins are coming off a playoff season and owner Daniel Snyder allegedly had a 2-year extension on the table.

Now that the decision is final, the questions turn toward the future:

• Who will replace Gibbs at the helm?
• If DC Gregg Williams gets the job, will OC Al Saunders stick around?
• Likewise, if Saunders lands the top job, will Williams look for work elsewhere?

Those questions will be answered in due time, but today was a day for reflection. Specifically, was Joe Gibbs’ second tenure with the Redskins a success?  That’s a difficult question to answer, and contributors to our message board weighed in on all sides of the argument:

• 57.8% said “Yes”
• 42.2% said “No”

Redman  says it was clearly a success, but not one that necessarily showed up in the win column:

It’s a success that unfortunately is not fully reflected in the W/L column.

In 2003 this was a team that was reeling from an embarrassing coaching failure in Spurrier, that had frighteningly little talent on the roster, an owner with the reputation (at that time deserving) of meddling and not even knowing enough about football to know what he didn’t know, and no plan for the future. The morale was low and the culture of the team was defeatist. There was not a lot of team toughness.

Joe changed all of that. This roster is stocked with talent, and I’m not talking about fantasy football talent but real NFL talent that includes role players, special teams guys, etc.

Koya considers his tenure a mild success:

Successful? Yes. Mildly.

Mostly because when Gibbs stepped in, the Franchise was in disarray and looked as if it may fall of the NFL cliff of proud, winning franchises for a while. He righted the ship, brought them back to respectability and made the playoffs twice in four years.

Not an astounding success, but more success than failure considering where the franchise is today as compared with 4 years ago.

I disagreed because I think ultimately Joe Gibbs, Daniel Snyder and the Redskins players wouldn’t deem their accomplishments over the last 4 years as having met their own expectations:

I’m sorry, but a sub-.500 record in four seasons with one playoff win was NOT what Redskins fans, Daniel Snyder, Joe Gibbs and football pundits wanted to see. While it wasn’t an outright failure, bringing back the franchise’s hero out of retirement and having him shuffle off with zero division titles wasn’t “successful” IMHO. Just look at it from the perspective of his division:

In the four seasons:

• Philadelphia (37-27: 0.578), 2 Playoff Appearances, 2 Division Titles, 1 Super Bowl Appearance
• New York (35-29: 0.547), 3 Playoff Appearances, 0 Division Titles, 0 Super Bowl Appearances but still alive in ‘07
• Dallas (37-27: 0.578), 2 Playoff Appearances, 1 Division Title, 0 Super Bowl Appearances but 1 seed in ‘07
• Washington (30-34: 0.469), 2 Playoff Appearances, 0 Division Titles, 0 Super Bowl Appearances

What do you think? Was Joe Gibbs (inarguably one of the best coaches in NFL history) successful in his return? And does the Redskins performance over the next few years play a role in how we ultimately view Gibbs last four seasons?

Somber news this morning as Sean Taylor, the Washington Redskins talented safety, has passed away as a result of the gunshot wounds suffered at his home yesterday. Taylor was only 24 years old and his assailant remains at large.

Any loss of life is tragic and, while Taylor was an ultra-talented player, it seems somehow disrespectful to make today’s news about the death of a football player. This was about the death of a man, a friend, a father, a son; and unfortunately is just one of innumerable acts of senseless violence that punctuates our society.

Rest in Peace Sean Taylor; and our deepest thoughts and sympathies to his family and friends.

When you’re rounding out your fantasy rosters, it’s a common practice to overrate the top receivers on bad passing teams. Logically, one assumes that SOMEONE has to be the top target and, as long as they’re getting thrown to, they have fantasy value. Well, year in year out there are a handful of teams that disprove that theory.

This year, five teams have a leading receiver that is on pace to finish with less than 60 receptions:

First	Last	Team	Pos	Recs	Yards	ProjRecs	ProjYards
Dennis	Northcutt	JAX	wr	23	323	46	646
Bobby	Wade	MIN	wr	24	291	48	582
Bo	Scaife	TEN	te	24	196	48	392
Antwaan	RandleEl	WAS	wr	27	479	54	958
Arnaz	Battle	SF	wr	28	273	56	546

Looking at that list, you see a number of receivers that were touted as “sleepers” this year; yet play for teams with challenged passing games. Let this be a lesson to you; not every team has viable fantasy options at every position.

As a writer/analyst for Footballguys.com, I have the good fortune to be required to watch as many pro football games as is humanly possible. Every highlight show I can squeeze into Sunday. And so forth.

The above is what makes Monday Night Football such a true pleasure each week. With all day Monday to digest the Sunday action, and plenty of time to read about the featured game on Monday night, a person can go into the game dialed in and ready to really soak up just this one game! And what a great game this one looks like it should be, by the way!

Donovan McNabb shook some of the rust off last week and enters this game with a full complement of receivers (reports are that L.J. Smith’s groin has improved a lot since last week and he should be more involved in the game this week). The Redskins have a two back rotation (Portis/Betts) reminiscent of Joe Gibbs’ previous tenure/glory days with Washington, and they were highly effective week 1.

So, the aerial shenanigans of Andy Reid’s Eagles vs. the Gibbs’ grind-it-out Redskins in a divisional contest at Lincoln Financial Field - what joy, what rapture!

At least, football fans everywhere are hoping for a hard-fought, quality contest.

Enjoy MNF everyone!

Injuries are a part of the game. And yet, their impact never really gets easier to digest, does it? Week One was particularly brutal with injuries to myriad offensive linemen. Fantasy football scoring rules may not pay much attention to the offensive line, but we fantasy football owners know full well the importance of a great offensive line in keeping our fantasy stars healthy and productive.

Let’s run through this week’s offensive line woes and their potential impact on key fantasy players:

LT Orlando Pace (STL) out for the season

Orlando Pace has been the fixture of the Rams resurgence and is one of the few remaining pieces to their Super Bowl teams of the late 90s. While he may not be the league’s best tackle, he’s in the conversation year in, year out. Unfortunately he tore his labrum and rotator cuff in Week One and is done for the season. This marks the 2nd consecutive season season Pace’s year ended prematurely. HC Scott Linehan hasn’t decided on a course of action yet, but the most likely scenario involves moving RT Alex Barron to the left side and putting Adam Goldberg at RT.

Fantasy Impact:

• Last year, the Rams had Todd Steussie as a fallback plan, this year they don’t [Steussie is currently injured]
• QB Marc Bulger is now playing behind a fairly inexperienced line, and may face more pressure
• RB Steven Jackson won’t have his best offensive lineman opening holes for him
• TE Randy McMichael may be forced to stay in and block much more than fantasy owners hoped
• FB Brian Leonard will probably be on the field more, but may see less offensive touches

LT Jonathan Ogden (BAL) re-injures his toe

After sitting out the entire offseason and preseason schedule, Hall of Fame LT Jon Ogden was in the lineup for Week One only to pull himself from the game with toe pain; the same turf toe that’s bothered him going on nine months now. Ogden was replaced by Adam Terry at LT (moving over from RT) while rookie Marshall Yanda stepped into the RT spot.

Fantasy Impact:

• We don’t know the extent of Ogden’s injury yet, but it’s probably safe to assume he misses a game or two
• Although a healthy Ogden is an elite talent, the Ravens have prepared for his eventual retirement
• Supplemental draft choice Jared Gaither looked excellent playing LT during the preseason
• The Terry/Yanda swap also has potential
• QB Steve McNair isn’t as mobile as he used to be; the severity of Ogden’s turf toe will only be measured once we see how his replacement handles the pass rush
• RB Willis McGahee probably gets a minor downgrade, although I think Ravens fans would tell you that Ogden wasn’t being counted on 100% by the team anyway

RT Jon Jansen (WAS) dislocates ankle; lost for the season

RT Jon Jansen badly dislocated his ankle in Week One and is lost for the season; Jason LaConfora is reporting Jansen has been placed on injured reserve (IR).  Rookie Stephon Heyer stepped into the game and played sufficiently well in Jansen’s place. But according to team officials, it looks like veteran Todd Wade will assume the starting RT role from here on out, allowing rookie Heyer to learn the ropes and serve as the team’s emergency/swing tackle.

Fantasy Impact:

• Losing a tackle is never a good thing, but the Redskins are better off with Chris Samuels back from injury and Jansen out, if they had to be short one of them
• Wade struggled in his move to guard this preseason but is a natural and proven tackle; there won’t be as much falloff as some expect
• The addition of G Jason Kendall in early August plus a healthy Samuels should obfuscate some of the concern here
• Don’t downgrade the Redskins offensive players at this juncture

C Al Johnson (ARI) injures his knee; C Chucky Okobi signs as replacement

Al Johnson hurt his knee against the 49ers on Monday Night. Johnson had a solid preseason and was making all the line calls for a rebuilt Cardinals offensive line. While the severity of Johnson’s injury has yet to be formally announced, the team moved quickly to bring in veteran Chucky Okobi as his fill-in. Okobi was primarily a backup in Pittsburgh and played for Cardinals HC Ken Whisenhunt and AHC Russ Grimm.

Fantasy Impact:

• The Cardinals are “lucky” that Okobi was available; he knows the line calls inside and out and should start immediately
• Johnson is a good center, but he’s not a difference maker; and Okobi has experience on excellent, playoff-caliber lines

C Jeremy Newberry (OAK) injuries his hamstring; out “a few weeks”

Jeremy Newberry hurt his hamstring this week and is on record expecting to miss a “couple of weeks.” The team expects to start Jake Grove in his place.

Fantasy Impact:

• Grove has been a disappointment after being highly coveted out of college
• Grove lost the center competition to Newberry in a spirited camp battle
• Mild downgrade of LaMont Jordan
• Mild downgrade of Josh McCown

Agree/Disagree? Curious to hear your thoughts…

Following on on what Jason Wood said, I have some more thoughts on the Detroit Lions RB situation.

Kevin Jones will begin the season on the PuP list. This means he will miss the first five games of the season leaving Bell as the unquestioned starter for a third of the season. That is great for Bell owners, isn’t it?

Who will the Lions play in those five games? Tatum will start versus the Oakland Raiders, Minnesota Vikings, Philadelphia Eagles, Chicago Bears, and Washington Redskins. The Bears and Vikings were two of the top teams versus the run in 2006.

The thing about Bell is his inconsistency with carries and production. Even though Tatum finished with 233 carries in thirteen games, he only had six games with more than 18 carries. And, he had five games with over one hundred rushing yards and five games under fifty rushing yards.

Tatum Bell is a good RB to have on your team. The tough part comes on whether you feel comfortable starting him over another viable RB with this schedule.

One of my favorite things about Footballguys is the way we our data and content is indexed, allowing ad hoc analysis. David Dodds provides a look at how his projections change from week to week in the Projections Tweaks series (subscription required). For those who don’t have a subscription, I thought it might be helpful to give you a few quick hitting comments on which players are rising and falling in MY (i.e., different than Dodds’) projections this preseason.

First up, the NFC East:

RISING

• Donovan McNabb, PHI (Rank: QB6) — He’s practiced and played according to schedule, and looked good doing it
• Brandon Jacobs, NYG (Rank: RB17) — Not in a committee situation after all, looks strong and solid goal line option
• Tony Hunt, PHI (Rank: RB62) — Could get goal-line carries
• Patrick Crayton, DAL (Rank: WR64) — Terry Glenn’s injury + Crayton’s strong play = upgrade
• Steve Smith, NYG (Rank: WR66) — Consistent throughout camp, could start by year end
• Nick Folk, DAL (Rank: PK24) — Gramatica’s injury + Folk’s strong play = starting PK

FALLING

• Jason Campbell, WAS (Rank: QB21) — Knee injury, shaky line, and troublesome mechanics
• Clinton Portis, WAS (Rank: RB26) — Tendinitis, lack of practice + Betts = overvalued
• Correll Buckhalter, PHI (Rank: RB49) — Hunt could steal touches, particularly at the goal-line
• Reuben Droughns, NYG (Rank: RB61) — Getting reps at FB, outplayed by Derrick Ward
• Plaxico Burress, NYG (Rank: WR17) — Still too good to ignore, but latest back injury lowers him a notch or two
• Terry Glenn, DAL (Rank: WR33) — Knee injury puts his Week One (or longer) at risk
• L.J. Smith, PHI (Rank: TE20) — Sports hernia is far too risky to draft as a TE1
• Martin Gramatica, DAL (Rank: Unranked) — Injury + Nick Folk’s strong play = looking for work

Let’s hear your thoughts…where do you agree? Where do you disagree and why?

Following up on Will Grant’s post about what to look for during the preseason games, I thought I’d post a link to the NFL’s pre-season television schedule. This week we have five games on tap:

• Thu., Aug. 9 Indianapolis at Dallas FOX (8 p.m.)
• Fri., Aug. 10 Buffalo at New Orleans CBS (8 p.m.)
• Sat, Aug. 11 Washington at Tennessee NFLN (8 p.m.)
• Sun, Aug. 12 Seattle at San Diego NBC (8 p.m.)
• Mon, Aug. 13 Denver at San Francisco ESPN (8 p.m.)

Below are a few story lines of interest to fantasy owners regarding the above games.

On Thursday, we’ll get a glimpse of Tony Romo’s progress entering his second year as the starter for Dallas (likely we’ll see very little of Peyton Manning, Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne). Friday will give us an idea how resilient the Saints’ first team is this year after their embarrassment at the hands of “Blitzburgh” during the Hall of Fame game. Saturday, young guns Jason Campbell and Vince Young will be under the microscope of fantasy owners everywhere - who has made strides in his development so far? Will Young throw another punch with his throwing hand? Stay tuned, sports fans! Deion Branch has been enjoying his first full training camp with the Seahawks - can he and Matt Hasselbeck form a strong #1 tandem (replacing the Hasselbeck/Darrell Jackson connection), starting on Sunday? Is D.J. Hackett actually getting pushed by Nate Burleson, or was that a false camp rumor? On Monday, we’ll see if Jay Cutler is simpatico with Javon Walker and Daniel Graham, and who will line up as the team’s #2 WR. Alex Smith enters the game without his top RB, Frank Gore - how will the 49ers adjust their attack to compensate for the absent (broken hand) Gore?

Don’t you just love football season? Get ready to rummmbllle fantasy owners everywhere - the game is BACK ON!

Today on The Audible, Cecil, Sigmund and I take a look at the NFC East top to bottom.

QB Breakdown: LISTEN NOW!
Topics Include: Tony Romo’s 2007 NFL Prospects, whats wrong with Eli Manning and can he turn it around, Donovan McNabb, does Jason Campbell take the next step, plus more!

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RB Breakdown: LISTEN NOW!
Topics Include: Marion Barber is a better back than Julius Jones but what is the split in carries going to be, Brandon Jacobs’ upside, the role of Reuben Droughns, Brian Westbrook, full blown RBBC in Washington with Portis and Betts, plus more!

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WR Breakdown: LISTEN NOW!
Topics Include: Terrell Owens, is this Patrick Crayton’s last year as a Cowboy, Plaxico Burress, Jeremy Shockey, Reggie Brown, how Kevin Curtis will do in Philadelphia, Santana Moss, plus more!

Chase Stuart recently posted his Rearview Quarterback article, which is one of my favorites each year.

The way he starts that article is by ranking quarterbacks not by total fantasy points, not by fantasy points per official game played, but by fantasy points per actual game played. Seneca Wallace, for example, was officially credited with eight games played last season. But in two of those games, he never threw a pass and in another he only threw two passes in mop up duty at the end of the game. So if we want to get an accurate read on how effective Wallace really was on a per-game basis, we should divide his fantasy point total not by eight, but by something closer to five. Read Chase’s article for the full details.

I was perusing some Clinton Portis stats the other day and noticed that his 2006 season was actually quite productive on a per game basis. He was credited with eight games but, because he left the eighth game in the first quarter, that overstates it. He actually played about 7.25 games. If you take his fantasy points and divide it by 7.25, you get 15.4 point per game, which would make him 2006’s #8 runner according to that stat. A lot of people are down on Portis this year, and not without reason. But he was productive last season. A case can be made that, at least while he was on the field, last year was the best of his three seasons as a Redskin.

I went through the play-by-play and credited each running back with a “quarter played” if he carried the ball or was the target of a pass during that quarter. Multiplying the number of quarters played by four gives an “adjusted games played” figure for running backs that is similar in philosophy (but very different in execution) to what Chase did for quarterbacks. Here are last seasons leaders in fantasy points per adjusted game (minimum four adjusted games). Each runner’s rank in terms of total fantasy points is given on the right for easy comparison.

     Player             AdjG  FP/AdjG  FPRank
=============================================
 1. LaDainian Tomlinson  15.50  27.57    1
 2. Larry Johnson        16.25  20.55    2
 3. Steven Jackson       16.25  20.27    3
 4. Brian Westbrook      14.25  18.08    6
 5. Frank Gore           15.75  17.27    4
 6. Willie Parker        15.75  16.99    5
 7. Maurice Jones-Drew   14.75  15.44    8
 8. Clinton Portis        7.25  15.35   36
 9. Kevin Jones          11.25  15.01   23
10. Tiki Barber          16.25  14.94    7
11. Marion Barber III    12.75  14.20   14
12. Shaun Alexander       9.75  13.99   28
13. Rudi Johnson         15.75  13.67    9
14. Fred Taylor          13.00  13.45   18
15. Ahman Green          14.00  12.80   15
16. Ladell Betts         15.00  12.66   10
17. Chester Taylor       14.75  12.64   12
18. Joseph Addai         15.00  12.57   11
19. Ronnie Brown         12.75  12.42   25
20. Deuce McAllister     15.00  12.37   13
21. Corey Dillon         14.50  11.99   19
22. Travis Henry         14.25  11.99   22
23. Reggie Bush          15.25  11.65   17
24. Ron Dayne             8.50  11.64   40
25. Willis McGahee       13.00  11.58   26
26. Jamal Lewis          15.50  11.53   16
27. Thomas Jones         15.00  11.48   21
28. Mike Bell            11.75  11.19   30
29. Edgerrin James       15.75  11.02   20
30. Cedric Houston        6.75  10.62   47
31. Laurence Maroney     13.00  10.45   29
32. Warrick Dunn         15.75  10.22   24
33. Julius Jones         14.75   9.94   27
34. Jerious Norwood       8.75   9.77   43
35. Brandon Jacobs       11.50   9.67   37
36. Wali Lundy            9.75   9.44   42
37. Tatum Bell           13.50   9.33   31
38. Cedric Benson        11.50   9.23   38
39. DeShaun Foster       13.50   9.16   32
40. DeAngelo Williams    10.25   9.11   41

Now there is a lot that goes into determining a runner’s adjusted games played. Some of the runners on this list who played fewer than 16 adjusted games should, because of the role they find themselves in, probably be expected to play fewer than 16 again this year. But the list does highlight a few players, like Portis, whose seasons weren’t as bad as we might have thought. It also shows that the gap between Larry Johnson / Steven Jackson and the next tier of runners isn’t quite as big as the raw totals would imply.

Continuing in the series, here is a look at the pass distributions for the NFC East teams. For a quick orientation, see this post.

          ==== WR =====|=== TE ===|=== RB ==
TM   YR     1  2  3  T |  1  2  T |  1  2  T
============================================
nyg 2004 | 24 14  6 49 | 22  1 23 | 19  4 23
    2005 | 33 19  5 58 | 24  2 27 | 14  0 15
    2006 | 30 11  8 58 | 19  2 22 | 14  5 21

          ==== WR =====|=== TE ===|=== RB ==
TM   YR     1  2  3  T |  1  2  T |  1  2  T
============================================
phi 2004 | 29 16  9 58 |  9  6 16 | 17  3 25
    2005 | 20 15 14 58 | 17  2 20 | 16  2 22
    2006 | 19 17 11 56 | 14  5 19 | 16  6 25

          ==== WR =====|=== TE ===|=== RB ==
TM   YR     1  2  3  T |  1  2  T |  1  2  T
============================================
dal 2004 | 27 11  7 60 | 27  0 27 |  6  3 13
    2005 | 31 23  9 66 | 21  1 22 |  6  3 12
    2006 | 29 26 13 69 | 19  3 22 |  5  4  9

          ==== WR =====|=== TE ===|=== RB ==
TM   YR     1  2  3  T |  1  2  T |  1  2  T
============================================
was 2004 | 33 23  7 71 | 11  2 17 |  8  4 12
    2005 | 44  6  6 60 | 23  4 30 |  6  2  9
    2006 | 25 11 11 53 | 23  3 27 | 14  5 20