2.32: Phillip Merling, DE, Miami Dolphins

Pass rusher had some injury woes but was effective off the edge when healthy. Has the size (6′5″, 272 pounds) that Bill Parcells covets. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.33: Donnie Avery, WR, St. Louis Rams

Quite a surprise. The first WR off the board is a small, uber fast guy considered a mid round pick by most scouts. Hard to believe he can replace Isaac Bruce without a few years of seasoning. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.34: Devin Thomas, WR, Washington Redskins (via Oakland through Atlanta)

The Redskins draft the WR many expected to be first off the WR board. Devin Thomas only had one big year at Michigan but has great size (6′2″, 215 pounds) and can also help as a kickoff returner. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.35: Brandon Flowers, CB, Kansas City Chiefs

If Flowers ran a tenth of a second faster, he would’ve been a mid 1st rounder. Great choice for the rebuilding Chiefs. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.36: Jordy Nelson, WR, Green Bay Packers (via New York Jets)

Another surprising WR selection. Was WR really a need for Green Bay with Driver, Jennings and Jones on the roster? Should help on special teams right away. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.37: Curtis Lofton, LB, Atlanta Falcons

Tackling machine, ideally suited for the inside where he can flow downfield to the ball. Not someone good in space and must be put in the right scheme to succeed. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.38: John Carlson, TE, Seattle Seahawks (via Baltimore)

Mike Holmgren called this a need, and the ‘hawks felt Carlson was a perfect fit for their West Coast offense. Carlson put up big numbers with Brady Quinn under center, as a reminder. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.39: Chilo Rachal, OG, San Francisco 49ers

Rachal gets knocked for not being a great athlete, but he’s technically sound and has a mean streak. As long as he plays inside and isn’t asked to pull and extend to the 2nd level much, he could be a starter immediately. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.40: Tracy Porter, CB, New Orleans Saints

Ironic that the Saints draft a cornerback with the 40th pick; considering there were rumors all week that the 40th pick would be part of a package to acquire Eagles CB Lito Sheppard. Porter is good at tracking the ball but isn’t a sure tackler or much help supporting the run.

2.41: James Hardy, WR, Buffalo Bills

The Bills landed the top corner in the draft last round and, in my opinion, the best receiver in the draft at 2.41. Hardy is a big guy who isn’t afraid of contact. He goes up for the ball and runs good routes; which helps offset a lack of breakaway speed.

2.42: Eddie Royal, WR, Denver Broncos

Royal is one of a handful of receivers who also project as solid returner at the next level. At only 5′8″, 184 pounds, Royal will need to prove he can hold up as a receiver over the course of the season. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.43: Tyrell Johnson, S, Minnesota Vikings (via Carolina through Philadelphia)

Kenny Phillips has the bigger name, but Johnson may have the bigger game. The Vikes continue to bolster their defense with another solid young, physical player. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.44: Matt Forte, RB, Chicago Bears

I’m not crazy about Forte; I don’t believe he’s a special back nor was he the best back left on the board. However, Forte has his supporters and it’s not inconceivable he could earn the starting gig over Cedric Benson sooner rather than later.

2.45: Jordon Dizon, OLB, Detroit Lions

Dizon lacks ideal size and speed; but like many solid NFL linebackers before him, he just makes plays. He’s instinctive and a sound tackler; exactly the kind of guy Rod Marinelli can build around. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.46: Jerome Simpson, WR, Cincinnati Bengals

Further proof that beauty is in the eye of the beholder at WR this year. Simpson wasn’t close to the best WR prospect on the board, but clearly the Bengals felt otherwise. At least, this pick fills a need given the release of Chris Henry and concerns about Chad Johnson’s status.

2.47: Trevor Laws, DT, Philadelphia Eagles (via Minnesota)

The Eagles finally make a pick, and it’s clearly a “best player available” selection. Defensive tackle was hardly a major need, but Laws is a high character, high motor guy who will add depth to an already young tackle rotation.

2.48: Fred Davis, TE, Washington Redskins (via Houston through Atlanta)

The Redskins are committed to getting QB Jason Campbell weapons. First Devin Thomas and now a pass-receiving tight end a few picks later. Davis doesn’t project into an elite tight end, but the Redskins don’t need him to be given the presence of Chris Cooley.

2.49: DeSean Jackson, WR/KR, Philadelphia Eagles

Many Birds fans wouldn’t have complained if Jackson was the pick in the 1st round. So to trade down, grab a 2009 1st rounder as compensation and get DeSean anyway was a coup. He’s tiny (169 pounds) but is blazing fast and unstoppable in the open field. He instantly gives the Eagles the best returner they’ve had in 5 years.

2.50: Calais Campbell, DE, Arizona Cardinals

You don’t find many 6′8″, 280 pound ends; yet Campbell fell into the 2nd round because of an uneven 2007 season. He was a stud in 2006 and, as long as the Cards play him at the right position, should combine with free agent Clark Haggans to improve the Cards pass rush.

2.51: Malcolm Kelly, WR, Washington Redskins

Sure, he’s slower than you would like. But have teams watched this kid play? He’s a polished route runner, has great hands and excellent body control. Very reminiscent of the year Chad Johnson fell because of his slow 40-time; the Skins got a steal.

2.52: Quentin Groves, DE, Jacksonville Jaguars (via Tampa Bay)

The Jags have a stifling defense already, but they aren’t great at putting pressure on opposing QBs. Adding Quentin Groves in the 2nd after taking Derrick Harvey 8th overall goes a long way to changing the Jags pass rush. Groves character issues aside, this was a solid pick.

2.53: Limas Sweed, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers

Some scouts love Sweed, some see him as a bust. At 53rd overall, the Steelers aren’t risking a lot financially to find out if he’s the next Plaxico Burress. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.54: Jason Jones, DE, Tennessee Titans

Jones could replace Antwan Odom right away, but he’s a bit raw to expect that. Eventually the Titans see Jones as a capable 2-way end in their 4-3 defense. His skill set is more suited to defensive tackle, but his size projects him as an end.

2.55: Ray Rice, RB, Baltimore Ravens (via Seattle)

Ray Rice is a local product who was wildly productive as the main ball carrier for Rutgers. While he lacks prototypical size, his low center of gravity and style make him more than capable of being an every down back if needed.

2.56: Brian Brohm, QB, Green Bay Packers (via Cleveland)

Now that’s kind of surprising. Or is it? The Pack took Aaron Rodgers in the 1st when Brett Favre was under center, so why wouldn’t they take the most accurate QB prospect in the 2nd round given Rodgers inexperience? Worst case, he’s a backup for a few years. Best case, he outplays Rodgers and ends up starting in a year or two.

2.57: Chad Henne, QB, Miami Dolphins (via San Diego)

How about that? It looks like Jake Long may be blocking for Chad Henne for a few more years. Another smart pick. He could easily outplay Beck and McCown to win the job; at the very lesaet he’s a big armed, young backup for a good price.

2.58: Dexter Jackson, WR/KR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (via Jacksonville)

This was a reach pick. While Jackson is another potentially dangerous return man; he needs a lot of maturing as a route runner before he can reasonably play WR on a regular basis. Blistering speed (4.33) though and dangerous in the open field.

2.59: Mike Pollak, OG/C, Indianapolis Colts

A classic Colts pick. Their only 1st day pick and it’s a fundamentally sound center that they project as a starting offensive guard for now and possibly a replacement for Jeff Saturday later. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.60: Patrick Lee, DB, Green Bay Packers

A hard worker, Lee may someday start at corner but not for a few seasons. In the meantime, he can be a force on special teams and perhaps play nickel back particularly in run support situations. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.61: Martellus Bennett, TE, Dallas Cowboys

I like this pick more than most. For my money, Bennett was the top TE in this draft. He’s huge, is a good blocker who can become great, and should be a key red zone target given his height and willingness to go up for the ball. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.62: Terrence Wheatley, CB, New England Patriots

The Pats always seem to find value and this was no exception. Wheatley is a legitimate shutdown cover corner who, were it not for myriad injuries in college, would’ve been in the hunt for a top 15 selection. Either way, he’ll help the Pats on defense and special teams.

2.63: Terrell Thomas, CB, New York Giants

Thomas is the 217th USC Trojan to be drafted in the first two rounds (not really, just feels that way). If the Giants view him as a corner, I don’t like this pick. But if they’re going to try to convert him to safety; where his deficiencies can be obfuscated somewhat, the choice makes more sense.

DE Chris Long was selected 2nd overall by the St. Louis Rams. Long is a high motor, high character defensive end with a fantastic pedigree (he’s the son of Hall of Famer Howie Long); and will help fix one of the league’s worst defenses.

Fantasy Impact: In redraft leagues, Long should help make the Rams marginally more attractive but, by himself, it’s still difficult to project the Rams as a fantasy worth defensive unit.

Arizona Cardinals

LB Karlos Dansby

The Cardinals have two free agent linebackers that are among the most compelling options in free agency: Karlos Dansby and Calvin Pace. While Pace is talented and someone the Cardinals would like to have back, it’s Dansby that’s almost assuredly going to be tagged because he’s emerging as one of the preeminent defensive playmakers in the NFC.

     
St. Louis Rams

The Rams have a handful of free agents but none that warrant either the franchise or transition tag designation.

San Francisco 49ers

GM Scott McCloughan has gone on record saying the team has no intentions of using the franchise tag on any of its key free agents. The team has a few key free agents it would do well to retain (e.g., Isaac Sopaoga and Larry Allen) but neither are worth the kind of money a franchise designation would incur.

Seattle Seahawks

Option 1: PK Josh Brown

The Seahawks don’t want to lose their star place kicker and, as a result, may tag him again. Recall that Browns was the team’s franchise player last season, but the team was unable to come to terms on a multi-year deal. Given the modest differential between the top paid kickers and the middle-of-the-road alternatives, the Seahawks would be foolish to let Brown enter free agency; either they will sign him long-term over the next week or he’ll get tagged because…

Option 2: CB Marcus Trufant

The ‘hawks don’t want to be in the position of having to let Marcus Trufant hit the open market. Trufant is one of the best young corners in the league and, were he to hit free agency, could potentially garner the kind of monster offer Nate Clements received from San Francisco last season. Our bet is that Seattle comes to terms with Brown on a deal in the next few days, allowing them to tag Trufant.

Two weeks ago we discussed the necessity of QB stability for NFL success. At the time, there were 4 teams (Arizona, Carolina, Miami and Minnesota) who started THREE QBs this season. Here is a refresher:

Team	QB1	QB2	QB3
Arizona	Matt Leinart	Kurt Warner	Tim Rattay
Carolina	Jake Delhomme	David Carr	Vinny Testaverde
Miami	Trent Green	Cleo Lemon	John Beck
Minnesota	Tarvaris Jackson	Brooks Bollinger	Kelly Holcomb

It’s no surprise that none of these teams have a winning record. A few other points to consider:

• 53 QBs have started at least one game this year
• 17 teams have used at least 2 starters
• After this weekend (Donovan McNabb = Doubtful), 18 teams (56% of the NFL) will have started 2+ QBs

A few interesting things have happened since I wrote this:

1. Minnesota has won 4 games in a row to raise their record to 7-6
2. Atlanta joined the ranks of 3 QB teams when Chris Redman got the start in Week 14
3. St. Louis joined the ranks as Brock Berlin started Week 14
4. San Francisco will join the ranks this week when Shaun Hill gets the start
5. Chicago will join the ranks as Kyle Orton has been named the Week 15 starter

As if that weren’t enough, several other teams could conceivably join the 3-QB club by season’s end:

• Baltimore — Troy Smith saw time this week, might Baltimore give him a start or two?
• Oakland — There really is no reason why the team shouldn’t give 1st overall pick JaMarcus Russell a start
• Philadelphia — McNabb is back under center, but might Kevin Kolb get a look in Week 17? Probably not

It’s only Wednesday and today’s optimism can be tomorrow’s disappointment…BUT, for those fantasy owners who feel like they’ve been fielding a patchwork team the last few weeks due to devastating injuries and killer bye weeks, it APPEARS that good news may be upon us.

While this is all preliminary (keep checking Footballguys.com for real-time updates as we receive them)…the following key players are hopeful of returning to the field in Week 7:

• QB Marc Bulger (STL) is hopeful that he’ll be able to start this week after missing time with his rib injury. He was on the active roster last week and is feeling much better. He’s still not 100% but he should be good enough to play.
• RB Joseph Addai (IND) is expected to practice this week and play in week seven against the Jaguars.
• WR Anquan Boldin (ARI) is expected to return to the starting line up this week after missing time with a hip injury. He ran some before the game Sunday and felt like his old self. “It’s the first time I’ve been able to explode, run routes and things like that, he said. “It isn’t sore today (Monday) so we’ll test it again Wednesday and see how it is.”
• WR Javon Walker (DEN) returned to practice this week. He missed the past two games with fluid in his surgically repaired right knee. Walker said he may take it easy in practice this week, but there is no way he is going to miss Sunday’s game. “It’s crunch time,” he said. “I got to be out there.” Walker said the knee won’t be completely healthy until after the season when he can rest it. “I have to play through it,” he said. “I’m ready to go.”
• WR Andre Johnson (HOU) could return this week when they host Tennessee. A decision won’t be known until at least Wednesday. “He’s progressing well; (we’re) very, very hopeful that he’s ready to go this week,” HC Gary Kubiak said. “We’ll run him tomorrow. We liked the progress we saw last week, so we’ve just kind of got our fingers crossed that he’s ready to go this week.”
• WR Marvin Harrison (IND) is expected to practice this week and play in week seven against the Jaguars.
  
• TE Vernon Davis (SF) is expected to return to practice this week and has a chance to play this weekend. When coach Mike Nolan was asked about Davis’ status for this week, he said, “It’s questionable. We’ll see how they practice on Wednesday. I’m hopeful.”

This has been a crazy year for quarterbacks. Many have been injured, and out for the year while some have been just plain inefficient.

Let’s look at some of the journeymen passers that either started in Week Five or might start in Week Six:

• Trent Dilfer (SF) – The consummate game manager and fantasy quarterback least likely for success. If he enters your fantasy lineup, you are probably doomed for a loss.
• Gus Frerotte (STL) — The veteran from Tulsa has played with several teams and knows coach Linehan’s system. But, we would be fooling ourselves if we thought he was a healthy Bulger’s peer. He is a desperate start in week six.
• David Carr or Vinny Testaverde (CAR) — Pick your poison. Which is worse? I see a toss up. Maybe Vinny would be able to find Steve Smith. I know he is not a tall fellow, but Smith should be easy to find if Kerry Colbert and Drew Carter are the other options.
• Kurt Warner (ARI) – He has a great matchup this week. But, how many games do we really expect before Warner is injured? Enter Tim Rattay. You know, the guy who could not beat out Kerry Collins. Gulp. Hang on to your hats, Boldin and Fitzgerald owners, it might be a bumpy ride.
• Kelly Holcomb (MIN) — We all know Holcomb as the guy who could not beat out Craig Nall or A.J. Feeley. With the receivers the Vikings have, would you really want to start Holcomb? Me either.

This list does not even include the likes of Daunte Culpepper, Cleo Lemon, and Byron Leftwich. This has been a rough year for passers getting hurt. Look for some additional passers to be benched from here on out for the young guns. This is the time in the fantasy season where it gets ugly, real ugly, for fantasy quarterbacks during the bye week crunch. So, good luck to those of you starting one of the above quarterbacks … you just might need it. If these guys were rock bands, they would not even make the amusement park circuit.

Week two of the NFL season saw many players integral to fantasy football nicked up …. with some worse than others.

This is by no means an exhaustive list but shows how widespread the injuries were for skill position players.

QBs:

• Marc Bulger hurt is knee and ribs in week two. He should be ok, but keep an eye on the situation. Make sure to pick Gus up if the news changes on the severity.
• Tarvaris Jackson injured his groin in a hard fought lss to the Detroit Lions. He was having a terrible game as it was. Brooks Bollinger is the backup.
• Steve McNair also has a groin injury. He missed Sunday’s game against the New York Jets. His replacement, Kyle Boller, player well. In fact, many in Baltimore think Boller might give the Ravens a better chance to go far in the playoffs.
• Chad Pennington hurt his ankle in week one against the New England Patriots. He tried to warm up on it but Kellen Clemens started in his stead and played admirably for his first career start. This could be a budding QB controversy.

RBs:

• Rookie Ahmad Bradshaw, who is primarily a kick returner at this time, hurt his elbow in the game against the Packers. Combine this with the Jacobs injury and the Giants are very thin at running back.
• Vernand Morency is still battling knee problems and could be out even longer.

WRs:

• Greg Jennings practiced all week in hopes of playing but his injured hammy could not go. Now, he will sit all week in practice and should be a dreaded game time decision.
• Andre Johnson sprained his PCL (knee) in the week two game. He has been playing so well that the MRI results will be very important.
• Patrick Crayton, playing instead of injured Terry Glenn, broke his finger in the game against the Dolphins. It looked nasty. He went back in the game but was held without a catch.
• Plaxico Burress re-injured his ankle in the week two game against the Packers. With the way Plax has been playing, this is a situation to monitor.
• Burress’ teammate, Steve Smith, fractured his shoulder blade. He should be back in around a month.
• Troy Williamson injured his hammy against the Lions.

Injuries are a part of the game. And yet, their impact never really gets easier to digest, does it? Week One was particularly brutal with injuries to myriad offensive linemen. Fantasy football scoring rules may not pay much attention to the offensive line, but we fantasy football owners know full well the importance of a great offensive line in keeping our fantasy stars healthy and productive.

Let’s run through this week’s offensive line woes and their potential impact on key fantasy players:

LT Orlando Pace (STL) out for the season

Orlando Pace has been the fixture of the Rams resurgence and is one of the few remaining pieces to their Super Bowl teams of the late 90s. While he may not be the league’s best tackle, he’s in the conversation year in, year out. Unfortunately he tore his labrum and rotator cuff in Week One and is done for the season. This marks the 2nd consecutive season season Pace’s year ended prematurely. HC Scott Linehan hasn’t decided on a course of action yet, but the most likely scenario involves moving RT Alex Barron to the left side and putting Adam Goldberg at RT.

Fantasy Impact:

• Last year, the Rams had Todd Steussie as a fallback plan, this year they don’t [Steussie is currently injured]
• QB Marc Bulger is now playing behind a fairly inexperienced line, and may face more pressure
• RB Steven Jackson won’t have his best offensive lineman opening holes for him
• TE Randy McMichael may be forced to stay in and block much more than fantasy owners hoped
• FB Brian Leonard will probably be on the field more, but may see less offensive touches

LT Jonathan Ogden (BAL) re-injures his toe

After sitting out the entire offseason and preseason schedule, Hall of Fame LT Jon Ogden was in the lineup for Week One only to pull himself from the game with toe pain; the same turf toe that’s bothered him going on nine months now. Ogden was replaced by Adam Terry at LT (moving over from RT) while rookie Marshall Yanda stepped into the RT spot.

Fantasy Impact:

• We don’t know the extent of Ogden’s injury yet, but it’s probably safe to assume he misses a game or two
• Although a healthy Ogden is an elite talent, the Ravens have prepared for his eventual retirement
• Supplemental draft choice Jared Gaither looked excellent playing LT during the preseason
• The Terry/Yanda swap also has potential
• QB Steve McNair isn’t as mobile as he used to be; the severity of Ogden’s turf toe will only be measured once we see how his replacement handles the pass rush
• RB Willis McGahee probably gets a minor downgrade, although I think Ravens fans would tell you that Ogden wasn’t being counted on 100% by the team anyway

RT Jon Jansen (WAS) dislocates ankle; lost for the season

RT Jon Jansen badly dislocated his ankle in Week One and is lost for the season; Jason LaConfora is reporting Jansen has been placed on injured reserve (IR).  Rookie Stephon Heyer stepped into the game and played sufficiently well in Jansen’s place. But according to team officials, it looks like veteran Todd Wade will assume the starting RT role from here on out, allowing rookie Heyer to learn the ropes and serve as the team’s emergency/swing tackle.

Fantasy Impact:

• Losing a tackle is never a good thing, but the Redskins are better off with Chris Samuels back from injury and Jansen out, if they had to be short one of them
• Wade struggled in his move to guard this preseason but is a natural and proven tackle; there won’t be as much falloff as some expect
• The addition of G Jason Kendall in early August plus a healthy Samuels should obfuscate some of the concern here
• Don’t downgrade the Redskins offensive players at this juncture

C Al Johnson (ARI) injures his knee; C Chucky Okobi signs as replacement

Al Johnson hurt his knee against the 49ers on Monday Night. Johnson had a solid preseason and was making all the line calls for a rebuilt Cardinals offensive line. While the severity of Johnson’s injury has yet to be formally announced, the team moved quickly to bring in veteran Chucky Okobi as his fill-in. Okobi was primarily a backup in Pittsburgh and played for Cardinals HC Ken Whisenhunt and AHC Russ Grimm.

Fantasy Impact:

• The Cardinals are “lucky” that Okobi was available; he knows the line calls inside and out and should start immediately
• Johnson is a good center, but he’s not a difference maker; and Okobi has experience on excellent, playoff-caliber lines

C Jeremy Newberry (OAK) injuries his hamstring; out “a few weeks”

Jeremy Newberry hurt his hamstring this week and is on record expecting to miss a “couple of weeks.” The team expects to start Jake Grove in his place.

Fantasy Impact:

• Grove has been a disappointment after being highly coveted out of college
• Grove lost the center competition to Newberry in a spirited camp battle
• Mild downgrade of LaMont Jordan
• Mild downgrade of Josh McCown

Agree/Disagree? Curious to hear your thoughts…

Training camp is TOUGH. Veterans hate it, some guys actually retire in order to avoid it. But camp is also a ray of hope, a chance to chase your dream. For some guys, their roster spots are assured and camp is simply a grind on the way toward competing for a playoff berth. But for many, camp is about EARNING their roster spot. With 90+ people invited to training camps but only 53-man rosters to open the season, there are a ton of hard-working athletes who go through the entire grind of the preseason only to be given an unemployment notice.

The stress of being visited by the Turk has to be unimaginable if you’re one of those fringe roster guys. A late round rookie at a position with considerable depth…a wily veteran facing a new coach and a youth movement…a 3rd stringer TE or QB who tries to play so well that the coaches feel compelled to find a spot for him.

But for as stressful as cut down day is across the league, at least you know it’s coming. The guys I feel bad for are a different sort. I feel bad for the guys who MAKE the 53-man roster, only to be released a day or two later.

September 1st rolls around, you bucked the odds, beat the system and have found your place on the TEAM. And then, a day or two later you unexpectedly get called into the coaches office and you’re told they’re “going in a different direction.” OUCH.

So in recognition of the guys who DON’T see it coming, here are a few of this year’s victims:

• WR Reche Caldwell (formerly New England Patriots) — Caldwell was considered the odd man out this offseason. After all, the Patriots acquired Randy Moss, Wes Welker, Donte Stallworth and Kelley Washington. But Caldwell played well throughout camp and made the final 53-man roster. That is, until the team opted to bring Marcellus Rivers back as an extra tight end.
• RB Jason Snelling (formerly Atlanta Falcons) — Jason Snelling was rock solid throughout camp and got important minutes in place of the injured Warrick Dunn. But when Dunn returned Snelling continued to impress; and seemed to have earned his role as the 3rd tailback; making the 53-man roster. Unfortunately, Artose Pinner’s gain is his loss.
• RB Quincy Wilson (formerly Cincinnati Bengals) — Seemed like he had locked down the 3rd RB spot behind Rudi Johnson and Kenny Watson, but apparently not.
• RB Rich Alexis (formerly St. Louis Rams) — Rich Alexis broke camp as the Rams 4th back. While he wasn’t likely to have contributed much on offense, he MADE IT. That is, until the Rams took notice of Antonio Pittman, the 4th round pick who was surprisingly cut by an uber-deep New Orleans squad.
• TE Ben Patrick (formerly Arizona Cardinals) — Ben Patrick was an uber-athletic prospect out of the University of Delaware who went to the Cardinals; a team desperate for TE help. Unfortunately, he was cut loose in favor of WR Jerheme Urban.

This is by no means an exhaustive list, just a sampling of some of the offensive players who thought their months of blood, sweat and tears had paid off; when in fact it really hadn’t.

The NFL Season is just two weeks away, and Fantasy Football drafts are happening all over the country. My eyes are about to pop out of my head from watching 40+ NFL preseason games either in entirety, in fast forward (stopping to catch several key plays) or even on the NFL.com highlight reel. My two DVRs are jam-packed still, but time is a-wastin’.

With that in mind, I have gone through my offensive player rankings for Footballguys for perhaps the last time before Week 1. For obvious reasons I cannot provide my entire rankings list here (subscriber only content), but I can tell you about a few tweaks that I made. There are several changes across the board, mostly minor upticks and downgrades, but I thought it would help some to know about the major moves I made and why:

Wide Receivers:

Take a look here for my overall WR redraft rankings as well as several other Footballguys staff’s opinions.

Wide receiver is a tricky position to rank, as here at Footballguys we focus on ranking them based solely on touchdown and yardage (no points per reception bonuses). Still, WRs are valuable and I see a big dropoff after about 20 WRs go off the fantasy draft boards this year. If you require starting three of them or if you get the “PPR” bonus, this is a very important position. Bear in mind that if you start 3 or have a flex position, your fourth (or even fifth) WR will be playing a few weeks for you as a starter. Draft accordingly.

Based on what I have seen, read and heard over the past few weeks, I have only made a few changes in the Top 20. Torry Holt’s knee cannot go unnoticed, so he’s a downgrade for certain. Marques Colston isn’t getting much press either, but he’s also not 100%. With so many options in the Top 20, I want “sure things”, and these guys are less than that at this moment. I’ll target a Roy Williams or a Reggie Wayne instead.

Lee Evans has impressed me, even after his amazing two-83-yard TD game last season. He’ll catch anything you throw deep at him far more often than not, and that’s a guy I want on my fantasy team. T.J. Houshmandzadeh is another top name that could really mean “Championship” for you this fantasy season.

A few other situations have me looking hard at their team’s receivers. Pittsburgh is going to throw more this year and I think that benefits Santonio Holmes more than Hines Ward. In fact, I think Holmes could be the #1 option in that passing game this season. Move Holmes up, Ward down a little.

The Giants will be throwing the ball around, but the question is who will catch it. Everyone seems dinged - from Plaxico Burress (ankle) to Michael Jennings (out for the year) to the return of an older Amani Toomer (torn ACL last year). That tells me to take a look at Steve Smith later in the draft for a guy with upside.

Staying in the NFC East, Terry Glenn is not getting younger either and he is also hurt. Terrell Owens is very very good, but he’s also not built out of steel. Grab Patrick Crayton who could be a starter several times for the Cowboys this season. I’ve already moved him up my draft board (and Glenn down some).

Next up…. Tight Ends.

There was a disturbing story by Bill Coats in the St. Louis Post Dispatch today on the status of Torry Holt’s surgically repaired cartilage in his right knee. The cartilage/joint simply hasn’t healed properly, and Holt continues to have issues with pain and swelling almost seven months after the surgery. He estimated that the knee is only 70-80% recovered as of Tuesday, 8/28, a week and a half before the beginning of regular season.

Holt commented at length about the injury: “It’s just one of those deals where I’m not recovering as quick as I used to. I have to get used to that and stay patient. … I don’t know if it’ll ever heal all the way, but I think it will heal enough where it will allow me to go out and play…”It feels good some days, and some days it doesn’t feel as good. I’m getting somewhat used to that and getting to the point where I can manage it pretty well.”

There is a lot to unpack in the statements Holt made, but here’s how I read what he said:

• Holt’s knee isn’t healed yet
• His knee probably won’t ever be 100% healthy again
• He is using pain management techniques to stay on the field
• The injury is flaring up unpredictably

I think the red flags all add up to a degenerative knee condition, folks. That means that eventually, chunks of torn cartilage and/or chips of bone from Holt’s knee joint will become what is termed “loose bodies”, and it is very likely that further surgery(ies) will have to be performed to keep the joint from locking up.

It was a similar set of circumstances that spelled the end of both Curtis Martin’s and Marshall Faulk’s careers (to name just 2 highly visible examples).

Does the above mean that Torry Holt’s NFL career is over? No, probably not. But it does mean that he’s a very risky proposition to play a full slate of games during 2007, and that he’s beginning to hit the down slope of his exemplary career.

Drafters Beware.

Continuing on…I thought it might be helpful to give you a few quick hitting comments on which players are rising and falling in MY (i.e., different than Dodds’) projections this preseason.

Up next, the NFC West:

RISING

• Matt Hasselbeck, SEA (Rank: QB11) — Shoulder looks healthy
• Shaun Alexander, SEA (Rank: RB12) — Still not in my top 10, but looks healthy
• Brian Leonard, STL (Rank: RB51) — Catching passes, Scoring TDs = compelling handcuff
• D.J. Hackett, SEA (Rank: WR37) — I wasn’t quickly sold on him, but have slowly become a believer
• Taylor Jacobs, SF (Rank: WR89) — Named WR3 in San Fran
• Marcus Pollard, SEA (Rank: TE17) — Fountain of youth + Holmgren’s praise = decent late round TE2

FALLING

• Torry Holt, STL (Rank: WR7) — Was ranked WR2 but slow recovery of knee = concern
• Nate Burleson, SEA (Rank: WR71) — Probably last man on Earth who believed he could start this year
• Ashley Lelie, SF (Rank: WR108) — Taylor Jacobs now WR3 in SF, Lelie could be waived
• Leonard Pope, ARI (Rank: TE40) — Having trouble holding off Troy Bienemann, ’nuff said

*** Note: As you might gather, my expectations for the Cardinals offense have changed very little this preseason, whereas my expectations for the Seahawks have improved incrementally due largely evidence that Hass and Alexander are healthy

Let’s hear your thoughts…where do you agree? Where do you disagree and why?

I’m absolutely stunned by the fact that Drew Bennett is being drafted ahead of Isaac Bruce in most leagues. According to our consensus ADP data, Bennett is being drafted WR43, one spot HIGHER than Bruce (WR44). Not only is Isaac Bruce criminally undervalued, Bennett is clearly overvalued.

People are focusing entirely too much on Drew Bennett’s 2004 season when he finished with WR6 numbers.

• 80 receptions
• 1,247 yards
• 11 TDs

While those numbers are impressive, keep in mind that most of that productivity came in that magical 3-game stretch late in the season when he and backup QB Billy Volek were “en fuego.”

• Week 13 (vs. IND) — 3 receptions for 124 yards and 3 TDs
• Week 14 (vs. KC) — 12 receptions for 233 yards and 3 TDs
• Week 15 (vs. OAK) — 13 receptions for 160 yards and 2 TDs
• 3-Week Totals — 28 receptions for 517 yards and 8 TDs

Now, take a look at Bennett’s per game averages over his six-year playing career:

You’ll note how markedly different his 2004 numbers look from the rest of his career. Now, notice the bolded 2004A, which is his per game average excluding those awesome 3 weeks. They look A LOT more like the rest of his playing career, don’t they?

Now consider the following:

1. Last year, Drew Bennett had 46 catches for 737 yards and 3 TDs despite being a starter AND playing for a Titans team that was desperate for offensive playmakers
2. Last year, Isaac Bruce had 74 catches for 1,098 yards and 3 TDs
3. Bruce has shown no signs of degradation (his yards per catch have actually increased for five straight seasons)
4. Bruce was a top-25 fantasy receiver last year
5. Bennett is adjusting to a new offensive system

It’s tough to label a receiver being drafted outside the top 40 as overrated, but in Drew Bennett’s case, that may in fact be true. Meanwhile Isaac Bruce is arguably one of THE best value plays on the board this year. Draft accordingly.

So you’re addicted to football. That’s okay - the first step is admitting it. Not that it is a problem (there are far worse addictions in life) for you, but your wife, girlfriend or family may disagree. Don’t they understand that there are a dozen or more games on from Thursday to Monday this week? Priorities, people….

Now that you know you’ll be watching football non-stop for several days, just hoping to find that next hidden gem for your fantasy franchise, let’s consider what to watch for and who might be popping up on some radars.

1. All four quarters matter. Coaches look for players in the fourth quarter just as much as they do in the first - just with a different purpose. They want to see who doesn’t belong at that level and who should get bumped up a string on the depth chart. Look for players that are faster than the rest and hitting harder than anyone else. If you see a player in the final minutes of Week 1 preseason games doing well and then he’s playing in the second quarter next week, watch him.

2. Team’s shortcomings matter. Quick, can you name your backup QB? What about your goal line back or second TE? If you can’t, there is probably a reason why. Since you are reading a football blog right now, I know you know and love football, so that isn’t the issue. Your team needs depth, and you need to go shopping in the pre-season to find some.

3. Shut up and score. If you don’t notice anything else, read who scores points this week. Those players will get more chances going forward. Even if it is just a rushing TD late in the fourth quarter, it is still someone who performed at this level and instantly becomes one to watch.

Here are a few names from the early games this week:

RB Brian Leonard, STL - Scored a TD for the Rams and looks to have a firm grip on the backup role to starter Steven Jackson. The former Scarlet Knight impressed at the NFL Combine and continues to build on his resume. I would not hesitate to have Leonard on a fantasy team, and would make it a priority if I had Jackson.

Lance Moore, WR, NO - Moore played early and often for the Saints and was a nice target for all the New Orleans’ QBs. He’s impressed in training camp so far and is also returning kicks. Moore could easily become the third WR for the Saints and displace Terrance Copper.

Fred Jackson, RB, BUF - Scored an impressive touchdown and had some nice flashes as a rusher in the second half for the Bills. The backfield in Buffalo is now crowded (Marshawn Lynch, Anthony “A-Train” Thomas, Dwayne Wright) but he is one to keep an eye on, especially in deep Dynasty leagues.

Tyler Palko, QB, NO - Palko was panned at the NFL Draft, but I liked what I saw. Yes it was late in the game, but he showed a lot of poise and playmaking abilities. Bear in mind the opportunities that exist for the Saints QB if Brees gets hurt, which he has certianly been in the past. I also do not believe in the Jamie Martin project.

Tarvaris Jackson, QB, MIN - Clear and away he is your starter for the Vikings. He also showed that he can pull the ball down and run. I can see him being a “poor man’s version of Vince Young” this season.

Enjoy the games.

Marc Bulger signed a new six-year, $62.5 million contract today and any fears that he would stage a training camp holdout are null and void. Bulger gets $26.5mm in guarantees and will look to build on what’s turning into an impressive NFL career.

Bulger is coming off his best season (4,301 yards passing, 24 TDs, 8 INTs); which not coincidentally was his first under new coach Scott Linehan. Bulger has been a top-10 fantasy passer in three of the last four seasons, and was well on his way in 2005 before injuries cut his season in half. Always an accurate passer (64.4% career completion), Bulger has improved his decision-making. Witness his INT totals over the last four seasons (22 to 14 to 9 to 8).

We currently rank Bulger as the 5th-best fantasy QB and 44th overall.

Tangentially, Bulger’s on-time camp appearance will benefit TE Randy McMichael and WR Drew Bennett, who need time to acclimate themselves to their new quarterback. Obviously RB Steven Jackson and WRs Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce are already known fantasy commodities, so Bulger’s camp holdout wasn’t going to hurt them as much.

Continuing in the series, here is a look at the pass distributions for the NFC West teams. For a quick orientation, see this post.

          ==== WR =====|=== TE ===|=== RB ==
TM   YR     1  2  3  T |  1  2  T |  1  2  T
============================================
sfo 2004 | 19 16 12 55 | 24  3 28 |  6  4 17
    2005 | 33 17 13 69 |  3  2  7 | 11  6 24
    2006 | 25 24  5 56 | 10  9 19 | 17  5 24

          ==== WR =====|=== TE ===|=== RB ==
TM   YR     1  2  3  T |  1  2  T |  1  2  T
============================================
ari 2004 | 25 20 17 69 | 13  2 15 |  6  5 16
    2005 | 30 30  9 77 |  6  3  9 |  5  5 14
    2006 | 31 24 19 80 |  4  3  8 |  6  4 12

          ==== WR =====|=== TE ===|=== RB ==
TM   YR     1  2  3  T |  1  2  T |  1  2  T
============================================
sea 2004 | 32 13 13 72 |  9  6 19 |  5  3  9
    2005 | 21 19 13 74 | 15  2 18 |  5  2  8
    2006 | 28 22 18 82 |  7  2 10 |  5  1  8

          ==== WR =====|=== TE ===|=== RB ==
TM   YR     1  2  3  T |  1  2  T |  1  2  T
============================================
stl 2004 | 30 28 11 82 |  4  1  5 |  7  4 13
    2005 | 31 18 12 79 |  3  2  6 |  7  7 15
    2006 | 27 25 11 67 |  5  2  8 | 19  4 25

Today on The Audible, Cecil Lammey, Sigmund Bloom, and Footballguys Co-Founder Joe Bryant review todays top fantasy football stories. Topics include: Marc Bulger’s potential holdout, Rod Smith being ready for the regular season, the good news out of Dove Valley concerning Tony Scheffler, Larry Johnson, the Jacksonville WR situation, and more!

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