Now that the NFL Draft is in the books, we are standing on the cusp of the NFL preseason. During the coming weeks, rookie mini-camps will grind into gear and hard-core fantasy owners will start the process of evaluating this year’s draft picks potential for “instant impact” during 2008. In redraft fantasy football leagues, one key requirement for the kind of production that fantasy owners crave is opportunity. A player like TE Martellus Bennett (a 2nd-round selection by Dallas) may have all the talent in the world, but his chances for a meaningful 2008 season in fantasy terms are very slight due to being buried on the depth chart behind All-Pro TE Jason Witten.

The below is a preliminary list of the top rookie prospects for redraft fantasy leagues, given their new NFL homes.

Rookie Running Backs

The running back position is where the fantasy gems among the rookies are most likely to be found. While it is true that for every Adrian Peterson (Minnesota) or Joseph Addai one can point at, there are also players like J.J. Arrington or Chris Perry who serve as a counter-examples, it is also true that running backs tend to make the quickest transition to playing at the NFL level. A fantasy owner is most likely to find an “instant impact” player among the rookie running backs in any given calendar year.

Jonathan Stewart is probably the best bet at running back to generate fantasy impact during his rookie season. He is the sort of running back that the Panthers’ coaching staff prefers, and they have been retooling their offensive line for a power running attack - Stewart fits the mold that Carolina is built to utilize. DeAngelo Williams simply isn’t the player the coaching staff wants to rely on as their #1 RB - he is better suited to a change-of-pace, 3rd-down role in their scheme. Stewart figures to have plenty of touches on the ball with the Panthers this year.

Darren McFadden is a boom-or-bust type prospect. Yes, he has the type of speed and top gear that make him a threat to go to the house on every down, and he projects to be the starter with the Raiders (assuming his contract negotiations go well and he avoids a JaMarcus Russell-type holdout scenario). However, there is a crowded RB stable in Oakland, with Justin Fargas coming off a 1000+ yard season - if McFadden struggles with the pro game, he may not get many chances to redeem himself.

Kevin Smith lands with the Lions, who really like his game and seem to be indicating that the starting job is his to lose during 2008. We’ll see if their actions match their draft-day rhetoric - but Tatum Bell hasn’t looked like the answer since he arrived in Detroit, and as of today, he is the only other back of note on the team. If Smith impresses in training camp it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him starting for the Lions in September.

Matt Forte comes into a by-committee backfield situation, with both Cedric Benson and Adrian Peterson grinding out 3.4 yards per carry last season. Peterson was far more productive than Benson in the passing game (51/420/0 receiving vs. 17/123/0) and actually led the team in total yardage and fantasy points at the RB position last year. Benson has greatly underperformed his draft slot (1st round -4th pick in 2005) and may find himself riding the pine if Forte proves that he outperform Benson during training camp.

Rashard Mendenhall is likely to be Willie Parker’s primary backup for this year, but given Parker’s difficulty at the goal-line last year (321/1316/2 rushing), Mendenhall could find a role as the Steelers’ goal-line back (Najeh Davenport gained 107/499/5 rushing and 18/184/2 as the Steelers’ big back/change of pace back last year). If Mendenhall seals the #2 job with Pittsburgh, he could have value in basic scoring leagues (any league where TD production is the primary scoring criteria).

Felix Jones joins fellow rookie Tashard Choice as the new backups to Marion Barber III. Barber looks set to carry the majority of the load for Dallas, but Jones’ outside speed will give him a shot to earn playing time as the 3rd down back/passing down back - depending on how quickly Jones picks up the Cowboys’ offense and learns to pick up the blitz.

Rookie Wide Receivers

Second to the running backs, rookie WRs occasionally step into the NFL and make fantasy owners’ seasons. The most obvious example of this phenomenon would be Randy Moss’s first incredible season (69/1313/17) with Minnesota (he was the #1 fantasy WR as a rookie) - Larry Fitzgerald’s 58/780/8 as a rookie was also pretty outstanding for a rookie WR (30th best fantasy WR during 2004). However, it is far more often the case that rookie WRs bust (especially in their first season of NFL action). The last time I fell hard for a rookie WR’s potential, I ended up having Rashaun Woods among my preseason top 36 fantasy prospects - only to watch him fail miserably at the NFL level. Now-a-days, it is my rule of thumb that exactly zero rookie WRs land among my top 40 or so fantasy prospects until they have proven their skills extensively in training camp and preseason games - and even then I tend to be conservative about drafting them early - I would urge fantasy owners to be very leery of rookie wideouts.

James Hardy appears to have landed in the best situation among the draftees, with a legitimate shot at capturing the #2 wide receiver position on the Buffalo Bills. Other than Lee Evans, the Bills’ WRs generated 1 receiving TD last year (Josh Reed was #2 in yardage with 51/578/0) - not exactly what the coaching staff was looking for, to say the least. However, don’t go overboard with your enthusiasm for Hardy - the Bills were 30th in the NFL when it came to passing offense, so his ceiling as the #2 WR (if he gets that far) is relatively low compared to a player on a franchise like New England.

DeSean Jackson figures to be in the mix in Philadelphia, but the team spreads the ball around quite a bit - the 2nd best receiver on the Eagles over the past two years failed to get over 800 yards receiving or score more than 5 times, and the players at WR3 and below are non-factors in fantasy terms.

Devin Thomas may challenge for playing time in Washington, but with a developing young QB in Jason Campbell and an entrenched #1 WR in Santana Moss combined with a high-scoring TE hogging red-zone chances (Chris Cooley has 6 or more TDs in each of his first 4 seasons) - Thomas will have significant obstacles to overcome before he starts putting up the kind of statistics that make fantasy owners excited.

Malcolm Kelly - see Devin Thomas above.

Jerome Simpson landed with Cincinnati while the Bengals are searching for a replacement WR3 - if he can wow the coaching staff in training camp and sew up the WR3 spot, he could put up decent numbers now and then during 2008.

Rookie Quarterbacks

Excepting Peyton Manning , the exception who proves the rule, no rookie QB has been a fantasy standout during recent memory - even Dan Marino took one season to get up to speed before exploding during his second campaign way back in 1984. Unless you are convinced that Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco or any of the other draftees this year are of the caliber of a Peyton Manning or a Dan Marino, you should probably pass on them during your redraft league’s annual draft.

Matt Ryan will likely get his chance to start during 2008, perhaps early on in the season if Chris Redman falters during training camp. Ryan is sure to suffer typical rookie growing pains once he does get into the lineup, so he probably won’t have any games worth mentioning until very late in the season, if then.

Joe Flacco may be the heir apparent in Baltimore, but he’s currently buried behind Kyle Boller and Troy Smith (last year’s draft pick at the position). The Ravens got burned the last time they rushed a QB into the starting lineup (witness Boller’s checkered career with Baltimore) - they aren’t likely to make the same mistake with Flacco. He’ll likely carry the clipboard after preseason, with occasional spot duty in blow out wins or losses.

Rookie Tight Ends

Rookie tight ends are very seldom worth drafting - Tony Gonzalez scored 2 TDs in his rookie campaign (33/368/2), as did Antonio Gates (24/389/2), as did the ultra-hyped rookie TE of 2007, Greg Olsen (39/391/2). The three above examples are actually best-case scenarios for the vast majority of rookie TEs - the position is very demanding at the pro level and it simply takes more than 1 training camp and regular season to absorb all the duties that are asked of a pro TE. Among the 2008 draftees, expect 300+ and 1-2 TDs to be a ceiling when you are crafting your projections.

New Seahawk John Carlson will battle Jeb Putzier for playing time during 2008, and could end up starting for Seattle sooner rather than later. He is the TE prospect who landed in the best situation (such as it is) from the fantasy perspective.

Dustin Keller arrives to the Jets via a first round pick, but he’ll have to earn his way into the starting lineup - solid-but-unspectacular Chris Baker has scored 4 TDs in 2 of the past 4 seasons, and posted 41/409/3 last year. Keller will have the opportunity to learn the position from Baker and another veteran TE, Bubba Franks, this season. Keller is a guy to watch as the year progresses - he might be worth a flyer in free agency late in the season (just before fantasy playoffs) if he manages to earn playing time during 2008.

The NFL Draft is an exciting time of year for football junkies, but it is just the beginning of a long process. Don’t let your draft weekend enthusiasm drown out your better judgement as you prepare your preliminary draft lists for 2008. We have yet to get an inkling who among the draftees will fulfill their promise, which ones will outperform expectations - and how many will go bust in their first season as a pro football players.

RB Darren McFadden and the Raiders were a match made in most mock drafts. He’s a 6′1″, 211 pound runner who runs a 4.33; was there ANY chance Al Davis could pass on him? Ironically, the Raiders have many needs and the RB position wasn’t atop them. However, Davis covets elite, speedy offensive players and McFadden fits that bill.

Fantasy Impact: Darren McFadden will likely be the 1st pick in the majority of rookie dynasty drafts this year; and he certainly will be drafted in the first two or three rounds of redraft leagues, as long as he signs and gets into camp. The Raiders got a career year out of Justin Fargas last year but his contract makes him an excellent 2nd RB; much like the Vikings had with Chester Taylor after drafting Adrian Peterson.

Just when you though the Raiders couldn’t get any nuttier, they go ahead and blow their own record for financial inadequacy right out of the water. We, like many others, wondered why the Raiders were so eager to commit $50.5mm including $18mm in guarantees to DT Tommy Kelly at the start of free agency. And when Al Davis followed that up with the questionable signing of safety Gibril Wilson to a 6-year, $39mm contract with $16mm in guarantees, we bit our tongue. But neither move comes close to yesterday’s signing of Javon Walker.

According to several sources, the Raiders are putting the finishing touches on a 6-year, $55 million contract. The deal allegedly includes $16mm in guarantees and will pay him $27mm over the first three years of the deal.

That is BAFFLING.

Even if we accept the notion that this year’s free agent contracts are driven by the inflation of a rising salary cap, how on Earth can the Raiders justify the sensibility of this signing?

• Randy Moss, he of the 23 TD receptions and Hall of Fame credentials, just signed a 3-year, $27mm deal with New England. Moss got $15mm guaranteed. The Raiders are paying Walker MORE guaranteed money than Randy Moss!
• Jerry Porter, another Raiders castoff, signed a 6-year deal with the Jaguars. The difference? It was for $30mm with $10mm guaranteed. In other words, Walker is getting 2x what Porter got.

It would be one thing if the Raiders were signing Walker based solely on his talent, with no concern toward his prior injuries or personality quirks. But how can you ignore either of those factors?

• Demanded a trade from Green Bay
• Demanded a trade/release from Denver
• Complained about his contractual status on both teams
• Has undergone not one, not two, but THREE knee surgeries in the last three years

Does that sound like someone you break the bank for, and give a monster contract to without showing his stuff? While there were other teams interested in Javon, does anyone honestly think another team would’ve come close to matching that deal?

If Walker is healthy, he can produce; let’s not mistake that. He’s scored 30 TDs in 72 games, and has two 1,000-yard seasons under his belt. But given his attitude and injury risk; not to mention the potentially impressionable nature of 2nd year QB JaMarcus Russell; this signing makes little sense. Walker has all the advantage here, where is the Raiders leverage?

The silver (& black) lining is that savvy fantasy football owners can successfully ignore Walker in 2008. I’m sure his “potential” will mean he gets drafted far too early for the risks involved. Let someone else take that risk while you build your roster the right way.

A lot of people are scratching their heads today. On the eve of free agency, the Oakland Raiders have signed Tommy Kelly to a 7-year, $50.5mm deal, making him — wait for it — the HIGHEST PAID DEFENSIVE TACKLE IN LEAGUE HISTORY. Yes, you heard that right folks…the Raiders signed the relatively unknown lineman for more money ($18mm guaranteed) than any lineman to ever suit up in the league.

So who is Tommy Kelly? He’s 6′6″, 300 pound defensive end that’s going to move inside to play undertackle in place of retired Warren Sapp. As you can see from his measurables, Kelly is built more like a defensive tackle; and the Raiders obviously think he can flourish inside. That said, Kelly’s best season was 2006 when he logged 68 tackles and 3.5 sacks. Last year, Kelly started six games but tore his ACL and was lost for the second half of the season.

If you think the Raiders overpaid for Kelly’s services, you’re not alone. Adam Schefter remarked on tonight’s NFL Total Access that a number of personnel executives were stunned by the signing. Now, if Kelly turns out to be a Pro Bowl caliber defensive tackle, the deal would be justified.

Cory Redding REDUX? Before Raiders fans get too excited, let’s remember what happened to Lions fans last season. A year ago, the Lions signed Cory Redding to a monster deal, making him the highest paid lineman. Lions fans pointed toward Redding’s solid 2006 (47 tackles, 8 sacks) and argued that Redding was on the verge of becoming a dominant young tackle. Well, a year later Redding logged a whopping 37 tackles and ONE SACK in 16 starts for one of the worst defenses in the league. This deal sure smells a lot like that one, doesn’t it?

Who benefits? That’s an easy one…any defensive tackle that’s up for a new contract benefits. Imagine the dance of joy going on at Tommie Harris’ house tonight. Think of how much the Titans are going to have to pay Albert Haynesworth if they want him to sign a multi-year extension instead of the one year franchise tender.

If there’s one lesson to take from this [aside from Al Davis’ growing senility], it’s that this year’s free agent class is going to land huge contracts by historical standards. With the rising salary cap combined with an unprecedented amount of salary cap room; teams are flush with cash and will find reasons to spend their money.

The deadline for teams to apply the franchise or transition tag designations ended at 4:30 pm EST yesterday; so now it’s time to recap what happened and evaluate some of the moves (and non-moves).

Twelve (12) teams used the franchise tag designation:

• CB Nmandi Asomugha (Oakland)
• CB Marcus Trufant (Seattle)
• DE Jared Allen (Kansas City)
• DT Albert Haynesworth (Tennessee)
• DT Corey Williams (Green Bay)
• LB Karlos Dansby (Arizona)
• LB Terrell Suggs (Baltimore)
• OT Stacy Andrews (Cincinnati)
• OT Jordan Gross (Carolina)
• S Ken Hamlin (Dallas)
• TE Dallas Clark (Indianapolis)
• TE L.J. Smith (Philadelphia)

Most Surprising Tag: Stacy Andrews

Andrews played quite well last season, but it was his first year as a starter. The Bengals still have Levi Jones and Willie Anderson in the picture; although that may change now that Andrews has been tagged. Given the importance of Carson Palmer and Andrews’ age, the move isn’t a total shocker; although few outside of die hard Bengals fans expected it.

Most Surprising Non-Tag: Randy Moss 

As we discussed last night, not tagging Randy Moss is shocking only if they don’t already have a long-term deal completed; but unannounced until the February 29th start of free agency. We expect he IS under contract, but if this proves untrue, this may be the most shocking non-tag decision of the modern era.

Other Surprising Non-Tags 

• OT Flozell Adams (Dallas) – Adams is no spring chicken, and the Cowboys did use their tag on someone else (Ken Hamlin), but this is a bold move if the Cowboys don’t end up re-signing Adams. He has played at a high level the last few seasons and the team doesn’t have someone of his caliber (or close to it) currently on the roster. Will Jerry Jones be willing to go to battle with a young, unproven tackle in 2008?
• PK Josh Brown (Seattle) — The Seahawks tagged Brown last year and it was thought he could be tagged again this season; but now free agency looms. It’s never an easy decision to let a proven kicker walk, but perhaps they didn’t see the logic in making him the highest paid PK in the league.

Interesting Tag Minutiae

• Exclusive tag versus non-exclusive – As we discussed earlier this week, Nmandi Asomugha was tagged with an exclusive franchise designation, meaning the Raiders paid him more (the average of the 2008 top 5 projected salaries versus the 2007 in a normal tag) in exchange for keeping Asomugha from being able to negotiate with other teams. It’s telling that only one of twelve teams opted to use this tag; as it involves paying a player more yet brings less wiggle room. Why a team would pass up the idea of getting 2 first round picks if a team wants their free agent badly enough is a mystery (the Raiders would still have had the right to match).
• Is Suggs a linebacker or defensive end? — The Baltimore Ravens tagged Terrell Suggs as a linebacker, but he has filed a grievance contending he should be paid as a defensive end. The difference? About $800K for the one-year tender. This matter will be settled shortly (if Suggs lined up more than 50% of the snaps as an end, he’ll get his extra dough), but it’s odd that Suggs, who has gone to the Pro Bowl twice as a LINEBACKER would think of himself otherwise.

Most Likely to Sign a Long-term Deal: Dallas Clark

OK, this is cheating since Clark already signed a 6-year deal to remain with the Colts.

Least Likely to Sign a Long-term Deal:  L.J. Smith

The Eagles remain concerned about Smith’s health and likely won’t agree to a long-term extension without seeing improvement on the field. This is basically a one-year option to retain a talented, system TE in a very weak free agent market for tight ends.

How did we do in our predictions?

We previewed each division and our thoughts on potential tag candidates. Overall, I’d say we did quite well.

• We correctly predicted 9 of 10 ‘definites’; our only whiff was on Randy Moss
• We noted that Flozell Adams and Ken Hamlin were possibilities in Dallas [although we leaned toward Adams]
• We noted that Brown and Trufant were possibilities in Seattle [and leaned toward Trufant]
• We noted DT Corey Williams and WR Bernard Berrian as possible tags [one out of two]
• We suggested that Justin Smith shouldn’t be tagged

Now it’s onto free agency and the NFL draft!
Related Blogs:

• ‘Tis the Season for Tagging
• NFC East Potential Tag Candidates
• NFC North Potential Tag Candidates
• NFC South Potential Tag Candidates
• NFC West Potential Tag Candidates
• AFC East Potential Tag Candidates
• AFC North Potential Tag Candidates
• AFC South Potential Tag Candidates
• AFC West Potential Tag Candidates

We’ve been talking a lot about the franchise tag designation in recent days, and Raiders CB Nmandi Asomugha was among our list of potential candidates. While it wasn’t surprising to see him tagged, it’s notable that the Raiders went above and beyond the conventional franchise tag by designating Asomugha an EXCLUSIVE franchise player.

How does that differ from the conventional (or non-exclusive) franchise tag designation?

• The player is guaranteed the average of the top 5 players at his position for the CURRENT (upcoming) year [the non-exclusive uses average salaries of the prior year]
• The player is not allowed to negotiate with any other team [non-exclusive tags allow for a team to accept 2 first round picks if another team signs the player]

Denver Broncos

The Broncos don’t have any free agents that are obvious fits for either the franchise or transition tag designation.

Kansas City Chiefs

DE Jared Allen

The Chiefs are expected to tag Jared Allen with an eye toward signing him to a long-term deal before the July 15th deadline. Allen had 15.5 sacks this season and has averaged 11 sacks per season over his 4-year career. Pass rushers of Allen’s ability simply don’t get into the open market very often.

Oakland Raiders

CB Nmandi Asomugha

Rumors persist that Asomugha will be franchised if the team can’t come to terms on a long-term deal before the tagging deadline. The 5-year veteran is considered a cornerstone of the team’s young, energetic defense and; given the price of free agent corners, it might not be as shocking a decision to tag him as one might think. That said, Asomugha is coming off a disappointing season following his breakout 2006 campaign. The team wouldn’t be tagging Asomugha for the player he already is; but rather for the player they think he can become.

San Diego Chargers

The Chargers don’t have many key free agents, and aren’t likely to utilize their tag designations.

Randy Moss is, needless to say, having a renaissance year where he once again looks like the league’s best receiver (by a wide margin0 after several disappointing years in Minnesota and Oakland. One of our message board contributors asked the question: What is the gap between Jerry Rice and Randy Moss?

dgreen: Jerry Rice IS the greatest WR of all time. This thread isn’t to claim otherwise.

However, for a long time, Rice has been the G.O.A.T. by a pretty large margin over the next guy. “The next guy” tends to be Don Hutson in many minds, but there is at least some argument about who is “the next guy”. For awhile, Randy Moss was viewed as “the next guy” and a legitimate contender to Rice down the road. Then he went to Oakland and people started to even question his HOF worthiness. Now in NE, he is looking like what we always knew he could be: a contender to Rice.

So, what’s the gap here? How much can Moss close that gap? How good of a chance does Moss have to make a move on Rice for GOAT?

Regardless of what you personally think about Randy Moss, his value to the team, his work ethic, etc…it’s impossible to deny that STATISTICALLY he’s among the very best to ever play the position. But how do you measure Moss’ career against the someone that many feel is the best PLAYER (regardless of position) in the modern era?

I think when you consider career accomplishments, importance to the game, work ethic, attitude, longevity, there are MILES between Randy Moss and Jerry Rice. But to dgreen’s question, how far away is Moss statistically?

Randy is currently playing in his 10th season. Through nine games he’s tallied:

• 56 receptions
• 924 yards
• 12 TDs

If we’re to assume Moss maintains his current pace to finish out the year, he would amass:

• 100 receptions
• 1,643 yards
• 21 TDs

Now let’s compare where Moss’ projected career numbers stand against Jerry Rice’s numbers through 10 seasons:

Career Receiving Stats (through 10 seasons)

As you can see, Rice was quite a bit ahead of Moss through 10 seasons. When you consider the unprecedented longevity that Rice enjoyed, too, it seems pretty safe to say that Randy Moss is really no threat to Jerry Rice’s statistical accomplishments.

The longest holdout in five years appears to be over, as JaMarcus Russell and the Raiders have agreed in principle to a 6-year deal. Russell is expected in practice on Wednesday; ending months of contentious negotiations between the rocket-armed 1st overall pick and Al Davis’ once storied franchise.

The Raiders were surprisingly effective in Week One for fantasy purposes:

• QB Josh McCown — 30 of 40 (75%) for 313 yards, 2TDs, 2 INTs
• RB LaMont Jordan — 15 rushes for 70 yards (4.7 YPC), 1 TD, 9 receptions, 89 yards receiving
• WR Ron Curry — 10 receptions for 133 yards (13.3 YPR), 1 TD

The question now becomes, does JaMarcus Russell figure into the Raiders 2007 plans? I’m of the opinion that if the Raiders are out of the playoff hunt, Russell will see action over the last 4-to-6 weeks of the season. Before that, I find it hard to believe they’ll make a switch when McCown appears much more capable than last year’s Raiders QBs and Daunte Culpepper is on the roster and handily outperformed McCown in the preseason.

Injuries are a part of the game. And yet, their impact never really gets easier to digest, does it? Week One was particularly brutal with injuries to myriad offensive linemen. Fantasy football scoring rules may not pay much attention to the offensive line, but we fantasy football owners know full well the importance of a great offensive line in keeping our fantasy stars healthy and productive.

Let’s run through this week’s offensive line woes and their potential impact on key fantasy players:

LT Orlando Pace (STL) out for the season

Orlando Pace has been the fixture of the Rams resurgence and is one of the few remaining pieces to their Super Bowl teams of the late 90s. While he may not be the league’s best tackle, he’s in the conversation year in, year out. Unfortunately he tore his labrum and rotator cuff in Week One and is done for the season. This marks the 2nd consecutive season season Pace’s year ended prematurely. HC Scott Linehan hasn’t decided on a course of action yet, but the most likely scenario involves moving RT Alex Barron to the left side and putting Adam Goldberg at RT.

Fantasy Impact:

• Last year, the Rams had Todd Steussie as a fallback plan, this year they don’t [Steussie is currently injured]
• QB Marc Bulger is now playing behind a fairly inexperienced line, and may face more pressure
• RB Steven Jackson won’t have his best offensive lineman opening holes for him
• TE Randy McMichael may be forced to stay in and block much more than fantasy owners hoped
• FB Brian Leonard will probably be on the field more, but may see less offensive touches

LT Jonathan Ogden (BAL) re-injures his toe

After sitting out the entire offseason and preseason schedule, Hall of Fame LT Jon Ogden was in the lineup for Week One only to pull himself from the game with toe pain; the same turf toe that’s bothered him going on nine months now. Ogden was replaced by Adam Terry at LT (moving over from RT) while rookie Marshall Yanda stepped into the RT spot.

Fantasy Impact:

• We don’t know the extent of Ogden’s injury yet, but it’s probably safe to assume he misses a game or two
• Although a healthy Ogden is an elite talent, the Ravens have prepared for his eventual retirement
• Supplemental draft choice Jared Gaither looked excellent playing LT during the preseason
• The Terry/Yanda swap also has potential
• QB Steve McNair isn’t as mobile as he used to be; the severity of Ogden’s turf toe will only be measured once we see how his replacement handles the pass rush
• RB Willis McGahee probably gets a minor downgrade, although I think Ravens fans would tell you that Ogden wasn’t being counted on 100% by the team anyway

RT Jon Jansen (WAS) dislocates ankle; lost for the season

RT Jon Jansen badly dislocated his ankle in Week One and is lost for the season; Jason LaConfora is reporting Jansen has been placed on injured reserve (IR).  Rookie Stephon Heyer stepped into the game and played sufficiently well in Jansen’s place. But according to team officials, it looks like veteran Todd Wade will assume the starting RT role from here on out, allowing rookie Heyer to learn the ropes and serve as the team’s emergency/swing tackle.

Fantasy Impact:

• Losing a tackle is never a good thing, but the Redskins are better off with Chris Samuels back from injury and Jansen out, if they had to be short one of them
• Wade struggled in his move to guard this preseason but is a natural and proven tackle; there won’t be as much falloff as some expect
• The addition of G Jason Kendall in early August plus a healthy Samuels should obfuscate some of the concern here
• Don’t downgrade the Redskins offensive players at this juncture

C Al Johnson (ARI) injures his knee; C Chucky Okobi signs as replacement

Al Johnson hurt his knee against the 49ers on Monday Night. Johnson had a solid preseason and was making all the line calls for a rebuilt Cardinals offensive line. While the severity of Johnson’s injury has yet to be formally announced, the team moved quickly to bring in veteran Chucky Okobi as his fill-in. Okobi was primarily a backup in Pittsburgh and played for Cardinals HC Ken Whisenhunt and AHC Russ Grimm.

Fantasy Impact:

• The Cardinals are “lucky” that Okobi was available; he knows the line calls inside and out and should start immediately
• Johnson is a good center, but he’s not a difference maker; and Okobi has experience on excellent, playoff-caliber lines

C Jeremy Newberry (OAK) injuries his hamstring; out “a few weeks”

Jeremy Newberry hurt his hamstring this week and is on record expecting to miss a “couple of weeks.” The team expects to start Jake Grove in his place.

Fantasy Impact:

• Grove has been a disappointment after being highly coveted out of college
• Grove lost the center competition to Newberry in a spirited camp battle
• Mild downgrade of LaMont Jordan
• Mild downgrade of Josh McCown

Agree/Disagree? Curious to hear your thoughts…

With the release of Byron Leftwich from the Jacksonville Jaguars, many dynasty fantasy owners were left stunned and very unhappy. There are many teams rumored to be interested in Leftwich including: Baltimore Ravens, Minnesota Vikings, Cleveland Browns, Oakland Raiders, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Kansas City Chiefs, Atlanta Falcons, as well as several others.

The savvy dynasty owner sees this as a perfect time to buy. The current Leftwich owner is left with the feeling that he was kicked in the teeth. There are no starting QB jobs open. At best, Leftwich owners are hoping for fantasy points at the end of this season, but most probably will have to wait until 2008.

Is Byron Leftwich worth a 2008 2nd round rookie pick? Most definitely, especially if you have a good team and the pick will be late in the round. Leftwich was a top fantasy passer last year, before injury, even with the less than stellar corps of pass receivers.

This may be the last time you can get Leftwich for this cheap of a price again.

You can’t blame Lane Kiffin for his naivety. He’s young, inexperienced, and fresh from the college football world. So it’s with that backdrop that I can KIND OF understand why he’s trying to play coy with who his Week One starter is going to be. For those not paying attention (and honestly, many fantasy owners probably haven’t given the Raiders QBs much thought), Lane Kiffin has been keeping a lid on which QB, Josh McCown or Daunte Culpepper, will start Week One against the Detroit Lions.

Josh McCown vs. Daunte Culpepper

I could be wrong, but something tells me Culpepper might edge out McCown for the start, what do you think?

UPDATE: According to Adam Schefter, Lane Kiffin has officially succumbed to whatever ails Al Davis and has lost his mind. He’s prepared to name Josh McCown the starter in Week One.

Following on on what Jason Wood said, I have some more thoughts on the Detroit Lions RB situation.

Kevin Jones will begin the season on the PuP list. This means he will miss the first five games of the season leaving Bell as the unquestioned starter for a third of the season. That is great for Bell owners, isn’t it?

Who will the Lions play in those five games? Tatum will start versus the Oakland Raiders, Minnesota Vikings, Philadelphia Eagles, Chicago Bears, and Washington Redskins. The Bears and Vikings were two of the top teams versus the run in 2006.

The thing about Bell is his inconsistency with carries and production. Even though Tatum finished with 233 carries in thirteen games, he only had six games with more than 18 carries. And, he had five games with over one hundred rushing yards and five games under fifty rushing yards.

Tatum Bell is a good RB to have on your team. The tough part comes on whether you feel comfortable starting him over another viable RB with this schedule.

Continuing on…I thought it might be helpful to give you a few quick hitting comments on which players are rising and falling in MY (i.e., different than Dodds’) projections this preseason.

Up next, the AFC West:

RISING

• Daunte Culpepper, OAK (Rank: QB24) — Healthy + Playing well + JaMarcus holding out
• Damon Huard, KC (Rank: QB32) — Named Week One starter
• LaMont Jordan, OAK (Rank: RB25) — Healthy, scoring TDs and catching passes
• Cecil Sapp, DEN (Rank: RB62) — Listed 2nd on depth chart
• Darren Sproles, SD (Rank: RB74) — Making plays + Turner high ankle sprain
• Vincent Jackson, SD (Rank: WR26) — Has shown a lot his preseason, clear cut WR1
• Jerry Porter, OAK (Rank: WR36) — Out of doghouse, Oakland actually has real coaches this year
• Craig Davis, SD (Rank: WR61) — Pushing for starting spot as a rook
• Daniel Graham, DEN (Rank: TE23) — Both he and Scheffler will be involved in passing game

FALLING

• JaMarcus Russell, OAK (Rank: QB35) — Holding out + Culpepper in town
• Brodie Croyle, KC (Rank: QB37) — Poor preseason + Huard named starter
• Michael Turner, SD (Rank: RB45) — High ankle sprain late in August
• Mike Bell, DEN (Rank: RB48) — Listed 3rd on depth chart
• Dominic Rhodes, OAK (Rank: RB51) — Suspended + Average talent + Lots of RB depth in OAK
• Brandon Marshall, DEN (Rank: WR53) — Spent too much of preseason in dog house
• Malcolm Floyd, SD (Rank: WR74) — Rookie Davis pushing to start

Let’s hear your thoughts…where do you agree? Where do you disagree and why?

Fantasy owners, try as they might, have short memories. LaMont Jordan, like anyone associated with the Raiders last year, was HORRENDOUS.

• 10 games played
• 114 carries
• 434 rushing yards
• 3.8 yards per rush
• 2 rush TDs
• 10 receptions
• 74 receiving yards
• 0 receiving TDs
• RB55 fantasy ranking

Of course, Jordan’s 2006 was a perfect storm of problems.

• Torn MCL (missed the final six games)
• Woeful offensive line
• Inconsistent QB play
• An offensive coordinator that had no business coming back into the NFL

Because of Jordan’s struggles last year, and the team’s signing of Dominic Rhodes in free agency, Jordan has been a forgotten man most of the preseason. Jordan has been drafted 35th among RBs on average, 83rd overall. To put that in perspective, you can roster Jordan in the 9th round of 10-team leagues and 7th round of 12-team leagues.

Yet, I think we’ve seen enough from Jordan in the last few preseason games to bump him up. I think he’s now worth rostering  a round or two ahead of current ADP; and could be a compelling value pick.

• August 19th vs. San Francisco — 8 rushes for 67 yards and a TD, 1 reception for 19 yards
• August 24th vs. St. Louis — 18 rushes for 41 yards and a TD, 1 reception for 49 yards

A few other points to consider:

• Jordan is healthy
• Jordan was a top-10 fantasy back in 2005
• The coaching staff and offensive line will be better this year (how much better I can’t say)
• Daunte Culpepper appears to be a major upgrade at QB
• Dominic Rhodes is suspended for the first 4 games
• Rhodes was a part-timer in Indy and averaged just 3.4 yards per carry last season

Let’s be honest, the Raiders may still be a really bad team and we just don’t know if that offensive line is going to keep the offense running smoothly. The O-line gave up 4 sacks last night against St. Louis so it’s still a work in progress. Jordan also has his on-field flaws, witness his fumble inside the 5-yard line last night.

BUT, there are precious few opportunities to draft a RB that COULD be a top 25 contributor after the first three or four rounds. And Jordan, at least for now, appears to be one of those guys.

It was a matter of when not if Daunte Culpepper would sign with an NFL team and we’ve been covering the possible destinations for you from the day he got released. Initial reports had him heading to Jacksonville, but that didn’t work out. He visited Tampa Bay and seemed a logical option there with Chris Simms ailing.

When we previewed Culpepper’s potential landing spots, I had this to say about Oakland:

Not As Likely As You Might Thing: Oakland Raiders

Al Davis loves strong-armed QBs but with a young head coach, a rebuilding offensive line, and a huge contract pending for JaMarcus Russell, this is a bad fit.

OOPS. Further proof that you should NEVER underestimate Al Davis’ willingness to bring aboard a strong-armed QB.

This signing will have significant implications for the upcoming fantasy season:

1) JaMarcus Russell’s contract status is tenuous — The last few days it’s become clear that Oakland the Russell’s camp are very far apart and he looks to wage an extended holdout. Signing Culpepper gives the Raiders needed leverage against the top rookie, because they can now legitimately afford to let Russell sit and stew for the next few weeks.

2) Josh McCown’s (albeit slim) fantasy prospects take a big hit – I for one had penciled in McCown as a modestly productive Week One starter. McCown is an excellent athlete and his mobility seemed to make him the favorite to start while the Raiders groomed Russell for his eventual ascendance. With Culpepper on board, McCown must now convince the Raiders he’s worth keeping around in place of the younger Andrew Walter.

3) Culpepper becomes a legitimate fantasy option on draft day — You can’t be sure the Daunte will stay healthy or finish the season as the starter; but you can be sure he’ll get the chance to carry the Raiders offense for a good chunk of the season. If Culpepper can show he’s still got some maneuverability in the pocket during training camp, he could be a decent late round option with immense upside if he were to a) remain healthy and b) play well enough to keep Russell on the bench.

What do you think about this signing? Surprised by his destination? Surprised by the one-year deal? Still think Culpepper will eventually take a backseat to Russell late in the year?

In this thead at the footballguys message board, a poster named “Lash” points out that the San Diego Chargers figure to get lots of games this year against inexperienced quarterbacks. Indeed, playing in a division where the opposing starting quarterbacks are potentially JaMarcus Russell, Brodie Croyle, and Jay Cutler might lead to some big games for the Chargers’ defense.

That, combined with the fact that the Chargers themselves don’t exactly have a ten-year vet at the helm, prompted me to see, just for fun, if any division has ever had such a collective lack of experience at the quarterback position. It turns out that, even if Josh McCown and/or Damon Huard start in place of Russell and/or Croyle, this will be among the greenest quarterback divisions of the last 30 years.

I looked at all divisions since 1978, defined their quarterback to the one who threw the most passes for them during that season, and then measured that quarterback’s experience by counting the number of NFL passes he had thrown prior to that season. Then I averaged those figures for all teams in the division.

That sounds complicated, but it’s not. Let me illustrate with the 2007 AFC West:

   QB            Career passing attempts
========================================
Rivers                   490
Cutler                   137
Croyle                     7
Russell                    0

The average is 159, which would be by far the lowest since 1978. Even if we slot Huard and McCown in there in place of Croyle and Russell, we’d get 505, which is still very low.

1985 AFC Central       233
Bernie Kosar             0
Mark Malone            380
Warren Moon            450
Boomer Esiason         102

1979 NFC Central       421
Doug Williams          194
Jeff Komlo               0
Tommy Kramer            73
Mike Phipps           1405
David Whitehurst       433

1988 NFC Central       495
Jim McMahon           1321
Wade Wilson            703
Rusty Hilger           157
Vinny Testaverde       165
Don Majkowski          127

1980 NFC Central       525
Doug Williams          591
Tommy Kramer           639
Lynn Dickey            876
Gary Danielson         451
Vince Evans             66

1989 NFC Central       533
Mike Tomczak           505
Bob Gagliano            30
Wade Wilson           1035
Don Majkowski          463
Vinny Testaverde       631

1990 NFC Central       535
Rich Gannon             21
Jim Harbaugh           286
Don Majkowski         1062
Vinny Testaverde      1111
Rodney Peete           195

1986 AFC Central       555
Bernie Kosar           248
Boomer Esiason         533
Warren Moon            827
Mark Malone            613

1986 AFC East          589
Ken O’Brien            691
Jim Kelly                0
Dan Marino            1427
Jack Trudeau             0
Tony Eason             825

2004 NFC West          594
Tim Rattay             163
Matt Hasselbeck       1282
Marc Bulger            746
Josh McCown            183

Can you guess what the most experienced division of quarterbacks was? Two of the top three come from the last two seasons.

It’s not often that an early July veteran free agent acquisition prompts questions about whether a somewhat unknown defensive wrinkle is about to become the next hot trend in the NFL. But that’s exactly what has happened after the Oakland Raiders signed former Jacksonville SS Donovin Darius to a contract late last week. Early reports are suggesting that Raider defensive coordinator Rob Ryan will use Darius in a defensive formation known as the “Big Nickel” in which a LB is benched in favor of a third safety. On the heels of offseason reports that Dallas SS Roy Williams and San Francisco SS Michael Lewis will play linebacker on some passing downs this season, veteran IDP minds on the FootballGuys IDP message board are wondering if the Big Nickel is about to follow the Tampa-2 and the Phillips 3-4 as the next big thing in the NFL.

What exactly is the Big Nickel? As the word nickel implies, the defense lines up with two linebackers and five defensive backs. Since the fifth defensive back is a “bigger” safety rather than a cornerback, though, the alignment is most often referred to as the “Big” Nickel. The most common playbook variation of this defense leaves two linebackers in the box aligned much like the two ILBs in a 3-4 front. The three safeties have variable responsibilities. One usually comes down into the box over the TE and has coverage responsibility for the TE or is tasked with aiding in run support. Another safety has intermediate zone and crossing route responsibility, while the third safety is usually left in deep coverage. With the right personnel, the responsibilities of each safety can often be disguised until just before the snap.

The Big Nickel isn’t a new wrinkle. Teams over the past two decades have used this alignment for any number of reasons on any down and distance. Fritz Shurmur, one of the most innovative defensive minds ever, first used the alignment as the defensive coordinator of the St. Louis Rams to give the dominating San Francisco 49er offense a different look in 1990. It worked to great success and was the catalyst to a Ram upset of Joe Montana and the Niners West Coast Offense. Shurmur resorted to it again as a base defense in Arizona a couple of seasons later after losing a few of his linebackers to injury.

While the Big Nickel faded to the back of defensive playbooks in the mid-1990s after teams took advantage of the smaller defensive backs with superior rush attacks, the “safety playing linebacker” is again gaining favor in recent seasons. The Denver Broncos, among other teams, have used the Big Nickel against stud pass catching TEs like Tony Gonzalez and Antonio Gates. Bill Belichick used it frequently in the early 1990s and famously confused Drew Bledsoe to distraction in one Pats-Bills matchup. Gregg Williams used it while a head coach in Buffalo and tried to work it in with Adam Archuleta in Washington last year. The Arizona Cardinals used a variation of the Big Nickel as part of an unusual 3-3-5 look last year in which Adrian Wilson lined up anywhere and everywhere on passing downs. Others, including Brian Dawkins and Demorrio Williams were noted to have safety-linebacker responsibility at times. And Rob Ryan has a long history with the Big Nickel, having used it as a base defense often over the past two seasons in response to the poor linebacker depth the Raiders have had during that period.

The Big Nickel will be used often again this year. The Raiders, with three solid options at safety in Darius, Michael Huff and Stuart Schweigert, now seem primed to use the Big Nickel as a base defense once again given a continued lack of NFL ready talent at linebacker behind Kirk Morrison and Thomas Howard. Both the Niners and the Cowboys may use the variation on passing downs only.

With the continuing influx of big slot WR and athletic pass catching TEs into the league, defensive coordinators are clearly looking for ways to keep up. The use of a number of high first round draft picks used on safeties with two way run-cover skill sets is just one part of a broader defensive trend. A few media types touched on it last season, but expect to hear more about the Big Nickel and the growing importance of safety play during the coming NFL season. If the Big Nickel continues to gain converts among league defensive coordinators, you may soon see the term “‘tweener” take on a whole new meaning in league scouting circles.

Continuing in the series, here is a look at the pass distributions for the AFC West teams. For a quick orientation, see this post.

          ==== WR =====|=== TE ===|=== RB ==
TM   YR     1  2  3  T |  1  2  T |  1  2  T
============================================
oak 2004 | 25 17 14 65 |  8  4 15 |  7  6 19
    2005 | 26 24 14 74 |  8  1  9 | 14  3 18
    2006 | 26 19 10 72 | 10  5 15 |  5  3 12

          ==== WR =====|=== TE ===|=== RB ==
TM   YR     1  2  3  T |  1  2  T |  1  2  T
============================================
kan 2004 | 23 17  5 52 | 27  3 30 |  6  5 18
    2005 | 27 13 11 59 | 23  1 25 |  9  5 16
    2006 | 27 17  6 51 | 28  4 33 | 13  2 16

          ==== WR =====|=== TE ===|=== RB ==
TM   YR     1  2  3  T |  1  2  T |  1  2  T
============================================
den 2004 | 28 27  9 67 | 14  5 20 |  6  3 13
    2005 | 33 23  6 65 | 14  5 20 |  6  5 15
    2006 | 36 17 10 71 | 10  5 16 |  5  4 13

          ==== WR =====|=== TE ===|=== RB ==
TM   YR     1  2  3  T |  1  2  T |  1  2  T
============================================
sdg 2004 | 19 11  9 52 | 27  2 32 | 12  2 16
    2005 | 25 19  9 55 | 29  1 30 | 10  4 14
    2006 | 19 13 13 52 | 27  3 30 | 15  2 19