Kevin Faulk has pled “no contest” to misdemeanor charges of possession of marijuana, due to a February 22nd incident at a Lil’ Wayne rap concert in Louisiana. Evidently, Faulk possessed 4 marijuana “cigars” when he was cited for the crime.

There is no word yet on any possible team or league sanctions related to the substance abuse conviction - but now that the legal system has run its course we may see action on one or both fronts.

Fantasy owners will want to stay tuned to the fallout from this event as Faulk’s production this year would drop if he receives a lengthy suspension. If Faulk were to be out of the picture for a chunk of time, TE Ben Watson would probably receive more pass targets in the short passing game, while Laurence Maroney could see an increase in his workload as primary ball carrier. The offensive mix in New England would definitely look different with Faulk off the field.

2.32: Phillip Merling, DE, Miami Dolphins

Pass rusher had some injury woes but was effective off the edge when healthy. Has the size (6′5″, 272 pounds) that Bill Parcells covets. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.33: Donnie Avery, WR, St. Louis Rams

Quite a surprise. The first WR off the board is a small, uber fast guy considered a mid round pick by most scouts. Hard to believe he can replace Isaac Bruce without a few years of seasoning. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.34: Devin Thomas, WR, Washington Redskins (via Oakland through Atlanta)

The Redskins draft the WR many expected to be first off the WR board. Devin Thomas only had one big year at Michigan but has great size (6′2″, 215 pounds) and can also help as a kickoff returner. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.35: Brandon Flowers, CB, Kansas City Chiefs

If Flowers ran a tenth of a second faster, he would’ve been a mid 1st rounder. Great choice for the rebuilding Chiefs. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.36: Jordy Nelson, WR, Green Bay Packers (via New York Jets)

Another surprising WR selection. Was WR really a need for Green Bay with Driver, Jennings and Jones on the roster? Should help on special teams right away. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.37: Curtis Lofton, LB, Atlanta Falcons

Tackling machine, ideally suited for the inside where he can flow downfield to the ball. Not someone good in space and must be put in the right scheme to succeed. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.38: John Carlson, TE, Seattle Seahawks (via Baltimore)

Mike Holmgren called this a need, and the ‘hawks felt Carlson was a perfect fit for their West Coast offense. Carlson put up big numbers with Brady Quinn under center, as a reminder. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.39: Chilo Rachal, OG, San Francisco 49ers

Rachal gets knocked for not being a great athlete, but he’s technically sound and has a mean streak. As long as he plays inside and isn’t asked to pull and extend to the 2nd level much, he could be a starter immediately. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.40: Tracy Porter, CB, New Orleans Saints

Ironic that the Saints draft a cornerback with the 40th pick; considering there were rumors all week that the 40th pick would be part of a package to acquire Eagles CB Lito Sheppard. Porter is good at tracking the ball but isn’t a sure tackler or much help supporting the run.

2.41: James Hardy, WR, Buffalo Bills

The Bills landed the top corner in the draft last round and, in my opinion, the best receiver in the draft at 2.41. Hardy is a big guy who isn’t afraid of contact. He goes up for the ball and runs good routes; which helps offset a lack of breakaway speed.

2.42: Eddie Royal, WR, Denver Broncos

Royal is one of a handful of receivers who also project as solid returner at the next level. At only 5′8″, 184 pounds, Royal will need to prove he can hold up as a receiver over the course of the season. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.43: Tyrell Johnson, S, Minnesota Vikings (via Carolina through Philadelphia)

Kenny Phillips has the bigger name, but Johnson may have the bigger game. The Vikes continue to bolster their defense with another solid young, physical player. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.44: Matt Forte, RB, Chicago Bears

I’m not crazy about Forte; I don’t believe he’s a special back nor was he the best back left on the board. However, Forte has his supporters and it’s not inconceivable he could earn the starting gig over Cedric Benson sooner rather than later.

2.45: Jordon Dizon, OLB, Detroit Lions

Dizon lacks ideal size and speed; but like many solid NFL linebackers before him, he just makes plays. He’s instinctive and a sound tackler; exactly the kind of guy Rod Marinelli can build around. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.46: Jerome Simpson, WR, Cincinnati Bengals

Further proof that beauty is in the eye of the beholder at WR this year. Simpson wasn’t close to the best WR prospect on the board, but clearly the Bengals felt otherwise. At least, this pick fills a need given the release of Chris Henry and concerns about Chad Johnson’s status.

2.47: Trevor Laws, DT, Philadelphia Eagles (via Minnesota)

The Eagles finally make a pick, and it’s clearly a “best player available” selection. Defensive tackle was hardly a major need, but Laws is a high character, high motor guy who will add depth to an already young tackle rotation.

2.48: Fred Davis, TE, Washington Redskins (via Houston through Atlanta)

The Redskins are committed to getting QB Jason Campbell weapons. First Devin Thomas and now a pass-receiving tight end a few picks later. Davis doesn’t project into an elite tight end, but the Redskins don’t need him to be given the presence of Chris Cooley.

2.49: DeSean Jackson, WR/KR, Philadelphia Eagles

Many Birds fans wouldn’t have complained if Jackson was the pick in the 1st round. So to trade down, grab a 2009 1st rounder as compensation and get DeSean anyway was a coup. He’s tiny (169 pounds) but is blazing fast and unstoppable in the open field. He instantly gives the Eagles the best returner they’ve had in 5 years.

2.50: Calais Campbell, DE, Arizona Cardinals

You don’t find many 6′8″, 280 pound ends; yet Campbell fell into the 2nd round because of an uneven 2007 season. He was a stud in 2006 and, as long as the Cards play him at the right position, should combine with free agent Clark Haggans to improve the Cards pass rush.

2.51: Malcolm Kelly, WR, Washington Redskins

Sure, he’s slower than you would like. But have teams watched this kid play? He’s a polished route runner, has great hands and excellent body control. Very reminiscent of the year Chad Johnson fell because of his slow 40-time; the Skins got a steal.

2.52: Quentin Groves, DE, Jacksonville Jaguars (via Tampa Bay)

The Jags have a stifling defense already, but they aren’t great at putting pressure on opposing QBs. Adding Quentin Groves in the 2nd after taking Derrick Harvey 8th overall goes a long way to changing the Jags pass rush. Groves character issues aside, this was a solid pick.

2.53: Limas Sweed, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers

Some scouts love Sweed, some see him as a bust. At 53rd overall, the Steelers aren’t risking a lot financially to find out if he’s the next Plaxico Burress. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.54: Jason Jones, DE, Tennessee Titans

Jones could replace Antwan Odom right away, but he’s a bit raw to expect that. Eventually the Titans see Jones as a capable 2-way end in their 4-3 defense. His skill set is more suited to defensive tackle, but his size projects him as an end.

2.55: Ray Rice, RB, Baltimore Ravens (via Seattle)

Ray Rice is a local product who was wildly productive as the main ball carrier for Rutgers. While he lacks prototypical size, his low center of gravity and style make him more than capable of being an every down back if needed.

2.56: Brian Brohm, QB, Green Bay Packers (via Cleveland)

Now that’s kind of surprising. Or is it? The Pack took Aaron Rodgers in the 1st when Brett Favre was under center, so why wouldn’t they take the most accurate QB prospect in the 2nd round given Rodgers inexperience? Worst case, he’s a backup for a few years. Best case, he outplays Rodgers and ends up starting in a year or two.

2.57: Chad Henne, QB, Miami Dolphins (via San Diego)

How about that? It looks like Jake Long may be blocking for Chad Henne for a few more years. Another smart pick. He could easily outplay Beck and McCown to win the job; at the very lesaet he’s a big armed, young backup for a good price.

2.58: Dexter Jackson, WR/KR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (via Jacksonville)

This was a reach pick. While Jackson is another potentially dangerous return man; he needs a lot of maturing as a route runner before he can reasonably play WR on a regular basis. Blistering speed (4.33) though and dangerous in the open field.

2.59: Mike Pollak, OG/C, Indianapolis Colts

A classic Colts pick. Their only 1st day pick and it’s a fundamentally sound center that they project as a starting offensive guard for now and possibly a replacement for Jeff Saturday later. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.60: Patrick Lee, DB, Green Bay Packers

A hard worker, Lee may someday start at corner but not for a few seasons. In the meantime, he can be a force on special teams and perhaps play nickel back particularly in run support situations. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.61: Martellus Bennett, TE, Dallas Cowboys

I like this pick more than most. For my money, Bennett was the top TE in this draft. He’s huge, is a good blocker who can become great, and should be a key red zone target given his height and willingness to go up for the ball. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.62: Terrence Wheatley, CB, New England Patriots

The Pats always seem to find value and this was no exception. Wheatley is a legitimate shutdown cover corner who, were it not for myriad injuries in college, would’ve been in the hunt for a top 15 selection. Either way, he’ll help the Pats on defense and special teams.

2.63: Terrell Thomas, CB, New York Giants

Thomas is the 217th USC Trojan to be drafted in the first two rounds (not really, just feels that way). If the Giants view him as a corner, I don’t like this pick. But if they’re going to try to convert him to safety; where his deficiencies can be obfuscated somewhat, the choice makes more sense.

LB Jerod Mayo wasn’t considered a first day pick for most of the preseason, but as teams looked at more and more game film and watched him in postseason workouts, his stock began to rise. Not only did he work his way into the top 10 OVERALL, but shockingly he landed on the league’s best team. The Patriots selected the high rising Tennessee Volunteer and will work him into their versatile LB corps.

Fantasy Impact: Mayo is a fast riser, and we’re not used to the Patriots grabbing guys that seemingly come out of nowhere leading up to the draft. That said, the Pats have openings in their LB corps, if not in 2008 then in 2009 and beyond. Mayo may not start immediately, but obviously his versatility plays into the kind of backer Bill Belichick covets.

Saints get:

• 7th overall pick (used to select DT Sedrick Ellis)
• 164th overall pick (5th round)

Patriots get:

• 10th overall pick
• 78th overall pick (3rd round)

It’s been a stressful few days for Patriots fans. While they were steeled against losing the likes of Asante Samuel, Randall Gay, Donte Stallworth and Eugene Wilson, no Patriots fan wanted to see Randy “23 TDs” Moss walk out the door. Today, Adam Schefter is reporting that Moss has agreed to a new 3-year, $27mm deal.

So ends a curious few weeks of speculation. When the Patriots opted not to tender Moss with the franchise designation, many (myself included) thought a long-term deal was already in place; but couldn’t be formally announced until the beginning of free agency. Yet, when the clock struck midnight Moss and the Patriots were eerily quiet about the negotiations.

As far as we know, Moss didn’t agree to visit other teams but that didn’t stop the paranoia from flowing over the last few days. Some of the more outlandish rumors included:

• Moss wanted to reunite with Daunte Culpepper as a packaged deal somewhere
• That the Eagles were going to sign him because Moss and McNabb were seen buddying up at the NFL event in Disney
• The Brett Favre was basing his decision on retirement on whether the Packers could acquire Moss

Yeah…it’s been one of those weeks.

While the full terms of the new contract aren’t out yet, it’s safe to say that both sides deserve credit for this one.

• Moss took less to stay -- Moss could’ve EASILY gotten more than 3 years, $27mm from another team, if he was willing to go to a non-contender flush with cash. If you don’t believe that, take a look at the 4-years, $16mm Andre Davis got to re-sign in Houston, or the 6-years, $42mm Bernard Berrian nabbed from Minnesota, or the 6-years, $30mm deal Jerry Porter got to sign with Jacksonville.
• New England didn’t panic – We shouldn’t be surprised when New England plays it cool, but how many teams would’ve let their prized free agent sit out on the open market amidst the buying frenzy we’ve seen the last few days?

Fantasy owners can breathe a sign of relief

No one should expect Tom Brady to throw 50 TDs nor should they expect Moss to catch 23 scores again in 2008. But today’s signing does put a floor in the Patriots offense (precluding major injury) and all but assures that both Moss and Brady will be among the top players at their positions come fantasy draft time. Neither is going to come cheaply this year (unlike last season), but that’s a discussion for another day.

NFL free agency is upon us, and big names are already packing their bags (or paying someone to do it) for new cities. Asante Samuel, Alan Faneca, Bernard Berrian, Donte Stallworth, and more are all ready to get their new jersey and playbook. Millions of dollars are flying everywhere as big names get signed almost hourly.

Two names are missing off of that list - Michael Turner and Randy Moss.

Let’s talk about Moss first. Sure, Berrian and Stallworth are now in Minnesota and Cleveland, respectively - but there are other WRs that are in the wind right now with their futures uncertain. Everyone is talking about what will happen with Larry Fitzgerald in Arizona, and neither Fitz nor the Cards are happy. Fitzgerald doesn’t want to budge much off of his big payday, which he has earned, but the Cardinals are on the outside looking in with Faneca and others getting signed elsewhere. With a salary cap problem that makes Dan Snyder look like Scott Pioli, Arizona is left out in the cold while the hot stove NFL names ink deals.

So what’s this have to do with Randy Moss? Well, Fitzgerald wants his money but odds are that he also wants to be paid like the best WR in the NFL. Has anyone else considered that Moss’ next contract could set the bar for what any deal has to beat to get to that level? I’ve thought about it and it is starting to make sense. All these talks of trades for Lito Sheppard and a draft choice with the Eagles and other possible scenarios for Fitzgerald would all hinge on a new and cap-friendly contract with Larry’s John Hancock on the bottom. If Randy Moss signs a deal with either the Patriots or another franchise, it sets the high watermark for WR salaries.

The downside for Fitzgerald in this stalemate is two-fold: the Cards cannot wait forever, and there is also the risk that Moss could go the Philadelphia. Arizona does not want to cripple themselves with a massive cap number to keep Fitzgerald, yet the front office is still saying that they are willing to do just that. Odds are that if he won’t renegotiate, the Cardinals would be better served to move him off of their bloated books. The problem for both sides is that every signing like Berrian and Stallworth reduces the chances of a trade, reducing the number of teams that would go hard after Fitzgerald, and also that the longer this drags on the more it hurts Arizona’s chances for improvement by adding more talent.

Look for Randy Moss to make up his mind soon, and I would not be surprised at all to see both Fitz and the Cards celebrate Moss’ decision.

I’ll talk more about Michael Turner and the running backs next.

The deadline for teams to apply the franchise or transition tag designations ended at 4:30 pm EST yesterday; so now it’s time to recap what happened and evaluate some of the moves (and non-moves).

Twelve (12) teams used the franchise tag designation:

• CB Nmandi Asomugha (Oakland)
• CB Marcus Trufant (Seattle)
• DE Jared Allen (Kansas City)
• DT Albert Haynesworth (Tennessee)
• DT Corey Williams (Green Bay)
• LB Karlos Dansby (Arizona)
• LB Terrell Suggs (Baltimore)
• OT Stacy Andrews (Cincinnati)
• OT Jordan Gross (Carolina)
• S Ken Hamlin (Dallas)
• TE Dallas Clark (Indianapolis)
• TE L.J. Smith (Philadelphia)

Most Surprising Tag: Stacy Andrews

Andrews played quite well last season, but it was his first year as a starter. The Bengals still have Levi Jones and Willie Anderson in the picture; although that may change now that Andrews has been tagged. Given the importance of Carson Palmer and Andrews’ age, the move isn’t a total shocker; although few outside of die hard Bengals fans expected it.

Most Surprising Non-Tag: Randy Moss 

As we discussed last night, not tagging Randy Moss is shocking only if they don’t already have a long-term deal completed; but unannounced until the February 29th start of free agency. We expect he IS under contract, but if this proves untrue, this may be the most shocking non-tag decision of the modern era.

Other Surprising Non-Tags 

• OT Flozell Adams (Dallas) – Adams is no spring chicken, and the Cowboys did use their tag on someone else (Ken Hamlin), but this is a bold move if the Cowboys don’t end up re-signing Adams. He has played at a high level the last few seasons and the team doesn’t have someone of his caliber (or close to it) currently on the roster. Will Jerry Jones be willing to go to battle with a young, unproven tackle in 2008?
• PK Josh Brown (Seattle) — The Seahawks tagged Brown last year and it was thought he could be tagged again this season; but now free agency looms. It’s never an easy decision to let a proven kicker walk, but perhaps they didn’t see the logic in making him the highest paid PK in the league.

Interesting Tag Minutiae

• Exclusive tag versus non-exclusive – As we discussed earlier this week, Nmandi Asomugha was tagged with an exclusive franchise designation, meaning the Raiders paid him more (the average of the 2008 top 5 projected salaries versus the 2007 in a normal tag) in exchange for keeping Asomugha from being able to negotiate with other teams. It’s telling that only one of twelve teams opted to use this tag; as it involves paying a player more yet brings less wiggle room. Why a team would pass up the idea of getting 2 first round picks if a team wants their free agent badly enough is a mystery (the Raiders would still have had the right to match).
• Is Suggs a linebacker or defensive end? — The Baltimore Ravens tagged Terrell Suggs as a linebacker, but he has filed a grievance contending he should be paid as a defensive end. The difference? About $800K for the one-year tender. This matter will be settled shortly (if Suggs lined up more than 50% of the snaps as an end, he’ll get his extra dough), but it’s odd that Suggs, who has gone to the Pro Bowl twice as a LINEBACKER would think of himself otherwise.

Most Likely to Sign a Long-term Deal: Dallas Clark

OK, this is cheating since Clark already signed a 6-year deal to remain with the Colts.

Least Likely to Sign a Long-term Deal:  L.J. Smith

The Eagles remain concerned about Smith’s health and likely won’t agree to a long-term extension without seeing improvement on the field. This is basically a one-year option to retain a talented, system TE in a very weak free agent market for tight ends.

How did we do in our predictions?

We previewed each division and our thoughts on potential tag candidates. Overall, I’d say we did quite well.

• We correctly predicted 9 of 10 ‘definites’; our only whiff was on Randy Moss
• We noted that Flozell Adams and Ken Hamlin were possibilities in Dallas [although we leaned toward Adams]
• We noted that Brown and Trufant were possibilities in Seattle [and leaned toward Trufant]
• We noted DT Corey Williams and WR Bernard Berrian as possible tags [one out of two]
• We suggested that Justin Smith shouldn’t be tagged

Now it’s onto free agency and the NFL draft!
Related Blogs:

• ‘Tis the Season for Tagging
• NFC East Potential Tag Candidates
• NFC North Potential Tag Candidates
• NFC South Potential Tag Candidates
• NFC West Potential Tag Candidates
• AFC East Potential Tag Candidates
• AFC North Potential Tag Candidates
• AFC South Potential Tag Candidates
• AFC West Potential Tag Candidates

When today’s deadline ended for franchise tag designations, the word spread like wildfire that Randy Moss was NOT tagged by the Patriots; despite catching 23 TDs this season and helping the Patriots to the best offensive output in league history. While many (myself included) expected Moss to be tagged, it now seems that the lack of a tag may not be what it seems.

According to NFL rules, a player can’t have their contract re-done more than once in a calendar year and so, it’s possible that Randy Moss has ALREADY COME TO A NEW AGREEMENT but, because of the aforementioned rule, cannot be officially announced until February 29th.

While we won’t know officially for another week, it seems incomprehensible that the Patriots would’ve seriously allowed Randy Moss to enter unrestricted free agency without some protection. After all, he did enjoy (almost) the best season by a WR in league history.

Buffalo Bills

The Bills are unlikely to tag anyone as their free agent outlook is rather minimal.

Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins have the first overall pick and plenty of needs, but are unlikely to commit a lot of money to any of their free agents. They likely want to retain a number of them (Rex Hadnot, Yeremiah Bell) but none deserve the kind of financial commitment a tag would involve.

New England Patriots

WR Randy Moss

The Patriots acquired Randy Moss last offseason and, to Moss’ credit, he took a one-year deal to prove himself. Well, an 18-1 record and an NFL record 23 TD receptions later, the Pats are in a difficult bargaining position. It seems absurd to believe the Patriots would let Moss walk, or that he would want to leave a team that allowed him to return to HOF form and has a great chance of getting him a ring. BUT…he took a discount last season and is going to want to be paid (justifiably so). Look for the Patriots to tag Moss with the idea of signing him to a long-term deal before the start of the 2008 season.

Note: Some people have asked why I don’t have All Pro CB Asante Samuel listed as a 2nd option. Simply put, Samuel was tagged last year and he agreed to sign the tender under the condition the Patriots couldn’t tag him again this season. Either the Patriots give Samuel a long-term contract or he’s free to walk. 

New York Jets

The Jets don’t have anyone that likely warrants their tag designations. LB Victor Hobson, S Erik Coleman, and OT Adrian Jones are all probably in line to return but for nowhere near franchise or transition tag dollars.

The Giants are heading to the Super Bowl, earning a rematch against the undefeated Patriots. No matter where your personal allegiances lie, you have to give the Giants credit for a hard earned berth. They won three straight road games against three division champs. They beat the 1st and 2nd seeds, avenging three of their in-season losses in the process. Along the way, the Giants have won an NFL record 10 straight road games.

No one, even the most ardent Giants fan, would argue the Patriots are a heavy favorite. Vegas puts the game a -11 and, if history is any indication, the line tends to grow in the favorite’s direction as the game approaches.

Now that the matchup is set, the discussion has turned to just how big of an upset would it be if the Giants beat the Patriots in two weeks?

Before we attempt to answer that question, we need to recognize that it’s subjective. Not everyone agrees about the best team in history, the best QB in history or the best RB in history…so we can’t expect everyone to agree about the greatest Super Bowl upset in league history, either. That said, here are my thoughts on the matter:

The Point Spread Approach

Personally, I don’t think point spreads are the best arbiter of this kind of discussion; but a lot of people do put faith in the betting line. To that end, the Giants are currently 11-point underdogs. If the spread holds at 11 points, it wouldn’t come close to matching the New York Jets in Super Bowl III. Joe Namath’s team were 17-point underdogs to the Baltimore Colts. More recently, the New England Patriots were 14-point underdogs against the St. Louis Rams in Super Bowl XXXVI and won outright. In fact, the Giants would be tied for 4th place in SB history, according to point spread:

• Super Bowl III: New York Jets (+18) over Baltimore Colts
• Super Bowl XXXVI: New England Patriots (+14) over St. Louis Rams
• Super Bowl IV: Kansas City Chiefs (+12) over Minnesota Vikings
• Super Bowl XXXII: Denver Broncos (+11) over Green Bay Packers
• Super Bowl XLII???: New York Giants (+11) over New England Patriots
  

The Margin of Victory Approach

Margin of victory is an valuable tool in comparing teams. In a league where the average margin of victory is slightly more than a field goal, margin of victory helps illustrate the best teams; teams that can win handily; whether that be by virtue of an explosive offense or a stifling defense. As you might imagine, teams with a high margin of victory traditionally beat opponents with lower margins of victory; that’s basic math.

Key Talking Points:

• The 2007 New England Patriots set an NFL record for margin of victory (19.7 PPG)
• The 2007 New York Giants margin of victory (1.4 PPG) is the 3rd lowest in Super Bowl history
• 2/3rds of Super Bowl winners have had a better regular season margin of victory than their opponent
• 1/3rd (14 of 41) Super Bowl winners have had a smaller margin of victory than their opponent

Here is a list of the Super Bowl champions that had smaller margins of victory than their opponents:

As you can see, the Jets victory of the Colts stands atop this list, while (surprise, surprise), the Patriots victory over the Rams is a close second.

Now consider the implied differential if New York beat New England:

• New England Margin of Victory = 19.7 PPG
• New York Margin of Victory = 1.4 PPG
• Implied Differential = (18.3)
  

This would be the most surprising SB victory, BY MORE THAN A FACTOR OF 2X THE PREVIOUS RECORD.

The Winning Percentage Approach

A lot has been made about how we need to “throw the records out” once the playoffs begin. Yet, history shows us that’s really not logical. When push comes to shove, the team with the better regular season record USUALLY wins the Super Bowl; it’s that simple.

Key Talking Points:

• The New England Patriots, the first 16-0 team in history, obviously had a 1.000 winning percentage
• The New York Giants (10-6), had a 0.625 winning percentage
• 10 of 41 (24.3%) Super Bowl champs had a worse winning percentage than their opponent

Here is a list of Super Bowl champs that had worse winning percentages than their opponents:

Interestingly, the Packers’ victory over the Raiders in Super Bowl II tops this list [they ranked 3rd based on margin of victory differential], and those were followed by New England over the Rams [2nd in our margin analysis] and Namath’s Jets over the Colts [1st place in the margin analysis].

Now, consider what a Giants victory would imply:

• New England Patriots (16-0) = 1.000% winning percentage
• New York Giants (10-6) = 62.5% winning percentage
• Implied Differential = (-37.5%)
  

Thinking of this another way, no SB champ in HISTORY has beaten an opponent with more than 3.5 more wins in the regular season, yet were the Giants to win they would have done so finishing SIX GAMES BEHIND the Patriots in the standings.

CONCLUSION

It’s difficult if not impossible to compare eras. In this case, the earliest Super Bowls pitted two entirely different leagues against one another, and football historians would say, as a result, their regular season accomplishments weren’t apples to apples. Therefore, some will always contend that Joe Namath’s New York Jets victory of the Baltimore Colts in Super Bowl III was the greatest upset in professional football history. The most contemporary upset would be the Patriots victory over the Rams [which ironically started the Patriots dynastic run we’re now dissecting]. By any objective measure, a Giants victory against the Patriots this year would be right up there with those two upsets. To my mind, based on the differential in their respective finishes this season, it WOULD be THE biggest upset in Super Bowl history. But even if you disagree, it’s hard to argue it wouldn’t be AMONG the biggest upsets.

Randy Moss just completed an insane 23-TD season; breaking Jerry Rice’s single-season mark in the process. As it stands, Moss also broke Rice’s record for most fantasy points by a WR in a season:

As you can see, Rice’s 22-TD season wasn’t even the record holder (it ranked 8th prior to Moss’ 2007 campaign); but rather it was Rice’s 1995 season (122 catches for 1,849 yards and 15 TDs) that was the former standard bearer. Moss’ 2007 numbers give him a 2.9 point edge using standard fantasy scoring.

While this is AMONG the best receiving seasons in football history, it’s really not the best FANTASY season. Remember, the year Rice caught 22 TD receptions, he only played 12 games due to the strike. Imagine what his numbers might have looked like over a full 16-game season.

Here is a list of the best fantasy seasons on a POINTS PER GAME basis (minimum: 12 games played)

Three things to chew on from this list:

1. Jerry Rice’s 22-TD season season is now back in its rightful place as the best ever
2. Lance Alworth’s brilliance comes to the forefront (he has three of the top 7 seasons all time in FPPG)
3. Moss’ 2007 season stands 3rd in PPG; and is indeed AMONG the best ever

Well, it got interesting for a bit but when the dust settled on tonight’s game, the New England Patriots finished off the first ever perfect season in the modern (16-game era).

• The Patriots got their perfect record
• The Patriots broke the single season scoring record
• Tom Brady got the single-season TD record (he ended with 50 TDs)
• Randy Moss got his single-season TD reception record (an astounding 23 TDs)

A lot of credit has to go to the New York Giants who played their starters the entire game and had a 12-point lead in the 2nd half; all despite having nothing to gain from a victory. But, even more credit goes to the Patriots who, facing their largest 2nd half deficit of the season, rattled off 22 unanswered points on route to a 38-35 victory.

Before everyone starts debating whether or not the Patriots are the best team ever, let’s let them win the Super Bowl. At this point, anything short of a Super Bowl would have to be considered a monumental disappointment for all concerned. Call the Pats the best REGULAR SEASON team ever; but recognize that neither they nor their fans really care about that distinction if it doesn’t come with a 4th ring a month from now.

Credit to our forum member pizzatyme for throwing out this little nugget today:

The Colts became the fourth team to win more games in a season following their Super Bowl victory. The other three all repeated as Super Bowl Champs:

• 1974 & 1975 Pittsburgh Steelers
• 1988 & 1989 San Francisco 49ers
• 1997 & 1998 Denver Broncos

Now for as interesting a statistical nugget as that may be, credit to forum member redman who quickly threw out the obvious monkey wrench (aka the Patriots):

In each of the three other instances, the repeating SB champ had either the best record in their conference, or the best in the league. The Colts obviously don’t this year, which is no surprise given how much of an outlier the Pats’ season has been anyway.

OK, long-time Footballguys subscribers know I’m an Eagles fan and season ticket holder. While I’m disappointed with the way this season has unfolded, and respect the Patriots as much as the next guy, I was floored to see today’s point spread:

• 23.5 POINTS

Granted, the Eagles are likely without Donovan McNabb (there’s a surprise) and are on the road against arguably the most dominant team of the modern era. But according to ESPN, this is the LARGEST point spread in league history (ex-expansion teams). The Eagles are 5-5 and rank in the top 10 both offensively (6th) and defensively (7th) in the league.

Oh the humanity. While I highly doubt the Eagles can win the game; I surely hope they “shock the world” and reset expectations for just how dominant the Patriots are.

Randy Moss is, needless to say, having a renaissance year where he once again looks like the league’s best receiver (by a wide margin0 after several disappointing years in Minnesota and Oakland. One of our message board contributors asked the question: What is the gap between Jerry Rice and Randy Moss?

dgreen: Jerry Rice IS the greatest WR of all time. This thread isn’t to claim otherwise.

However, for a long time, Rice has been the G.O.A.T. by a pretty large margin over the next guy. “The next guy” tends to be Don Hutson in many minds, but there is at least some argument about who is “the next guy”. For awhile, Randy Moss was viewed as “the next guy” and a legitimate contender to Rice down the road. Then he went to Oakland and people started to even question his HOF worthiness. Now in NE, he is looking like what we always knew he could be: a contender to Rice.

So, what’s the gap here? How much can Moss close that gap? How good of a chance does Moss have to make a move on Rice for GOAT?

Regardless of what you personally think about Randy Moss, his value to the team, his work ethic, etc…it’s impossible to deny that STATISTICALLY he’s among the very best to ever play the position. But how do you measure Moss’ career against the someone that many feel is the best PLAYER (regardless of position) in the modern era?

I think when you consider career accomplishments, importance to the game, work ethic, attitude, longevity, there are MILES between Randy Moss and Jerry Rice. But to dgreen’s question, how far away is Moss statistically?

Randy is currently playing in his 10th season. Through nine games he’s tallied:

• 56 receptions
• 924 yards
• 12 TDs

If we’re to assume Moss maintains his current pace to finish out the year, he would amass:

• 100 receptions
• 1,643 yards
• 21 TDs

Now let’s compare where Moss’ projected career numbers stand against Jerry Rice’s numbers through 10 seasons:

Career Receiving Stats (through 10 seasons)

As you can see, Rice was quite a bit ahead of Moss through 10 seasons. When you consider the unprecedented longevity that Rice enjoyed, too, it seems pretty safe to say that Randy Moss is really no threat to Jerry Rice’s statistical accomplishments.

In case anyone was wondering if the 72 Dolphins are officially sweating their place in NFL history, we got the answer this week as Don Shula (who coached that Dolphins team) came out of his self-imposed media hiatus to wave a finger at the Patriots and the validity of their 2007 accomplishments:

“The Spygate thing has diminished what they’ve accomplished,” Shula said in an interview with the New York Daily News. “You would hate to have that attached to your accomplishments. They’ve got it.”

Belichick was fined $500,000 and the Patriots were fined $250,000 and lost a first-round draft pick for videotaping the Jets’ opposing sideline during the teams’ season-opening game.

“That tells you the seriousness or significance of what they found,” Shula said, according to the Daily News. “I guess you got the same thing as putting an asterisk by Barry Bonds’ home run record.

Look, regardless of whether you agree with Shula you have to admit that it’s pretty hard to stomach the guy saying all this as though he’s unbiased. Call me crazy, but somehow I don’t think Shula would’ve made the same comments had the Steelers or Raiders been the one holding onto a nostalgic record of being the lone undefeated team in the SB era. Do you?

OK, by now you’re probably sick of hearing about the “Game of the Decade” that is otherwise known as this Sunday’s Colts versus Patriots contest. But since you’re reading this blog, it would be downright remiss to not weigh in on the game, at least a little bit right?

The conventional wisdom is that New England is going to beat Indianapolis on its march to a perfect season; with bettors making the Patriots a 6.5 point favorite on the road. I’m not a gambler so I can’t speak to the logic of that point spread, but I have to wonder when the last time a…

• Defending Super Bowl champion
• 7-0 on the season
• Playing at home

…was a near TD UNDERDOG?

Rather than blather on about who I think is going to win, here are some numbers to compare the teams:

2007 Colts vs. Patriots (Per Game Stats)