Now that the NFL Draft is in the books, we are standing on the cusp of the NFL preseason. During the coming weeks, rookie mini-camps will grind into gear and hard-core fantasy owners will start the process of evaluating this year’s draft picks potential for “instant impact” during 2008. In redraft fantasy football leagues, one key requirement for the kind of production that fantasy owners crave is opportunity. A player like TE Martellus Bennett (a 2nd-round selection by Dallas) may have all the talent in the world, but his chances for a meaningful 2008 season in fantasy terms are very slight due to being buried on the depth chart behind All-Pro TE Jason Witten.

The below is a preliminary list of the top rookie prospects for redraft fantasy leagues, given their new NFL homes.

Rookie Running Backs

The running back position is where the fantasy gems among the rookies are most likely to be found. While it is true that for every Adrian Peterson (Minnesota) or Joseph Addai one can point at, there are also players like J.J. Arrington or Chris Perry who serve as a counter-examples, it is also true that running backs tend to make the quickest transition to playing at the NFL level. A fantasy owner is most likely to find an “instant impact” player among the rookie running backs in any given calendar year.

Jonathan Stewart is probably the best bet at running back to generate fantasy impact during his rookie season. He is the sort of running back that the Panthers’ coaching staff prefers, and they have been retooling their offensive line for a power running attack - Stewart fits the mold that Carolina is built to utilize. DeAngelo Williams simply isn’t the player the coaching staff wants to rely on as their #1 RB - he is better suited to a change-of-pace, 3rd-down role in their scheme. Stewart figures to have plenty of touches on the ball with the Panthers this year.

Darren McFadden is a boom-or-bust type prospect. Yes, he has the type of speed and top gear that make him a threat to go to the house on every down, and he projects to be the starter with the Raiders (assuming his contract negotiations go well and he avoids a JaMarcus Russell-type holdout scenario). However, there is a crowded RB stable in Oakland, with Justin Fargas coming off a 1000+ yard season - if McFadden struggles with the pro game, he may not get many chances to redeem himself.

Kevin Smith lands with the Lions, who really like his game and seem to be indicating that the starting job is his to lose during 2008. We’ll see if their actions match their draft-day rhetoric - but Tatum Bell hasn’t looked like the answer since he arrived in Detroit, and as of today, he is the only other back of note on the team. If Smith impresses in training camp it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him starting for the Lions in September.

Matt Forte comes into a by-committee backfield situation, with both Cedric Benson and Adrian Peterson grinding out 3.4 yards per carry last season. Peterson was far more productive than Benson in the passing game (51/420/0 receiving vs. 17/123/0) and actually led the team in total yardage and fantasy points at the RB position last year. Benson has greatly underperformed his draft slot (1st round -4th pick in 2005) and may find himself riding the pine if Forte proves that he outperform Benson during training camp.

Rashard Mendenhall is likely to be Willie Parker’s primary backup for this year, but given Parker’s difficulty at the goal-line last year (321/1316/2 rushing), Mendenhall could find a role as the Steelers’ goal-line back (Najeh Davenport gained 107/499/5 rushing and 18/184/2 as the Steelers’ big back/change of pace back last year). If Mendenhall seals the #2 job with Pittsburgh, he could have value in basic scoring leagues (any league where TD production is the primary scoring criteria).

Felix Jones joins fellow rookie Tashard Choice as the new backups to Marion Barber III. Barber looks set to carry the majority of the load for Dallas, but Jones’ outside speed will give him a shot to earn playing time as the 3rd down back/passing down back - depending on how quickly Jones picks up the Cowboys’ offense and learns to pick up the blitz.

Rookie Wide Receivers

Second to the running backs, rookie WRs occasionally step into the NFL and make fantasy owners’ seasons. The most obvious example of this phenomenon would be Randy Moss’s first incredible season (69/1313/17) with Minnesota (he was the #1 fantasy WR as a rookie) - Larry Fitzgerald’s 58/780/8 as a rookie was also pretty outstanding for a rookie WR (30th best fantasy WR during 2004). However, it is far more often the case that rookie WRs bust (especially in their first season of NFL action). The last time I fell hard for a rookie WR’s potential, I ended up having Rashaun Woods among my preseason top 36 fantasy prospects - only to watch him fail miserably at the NFL level. Now-a-days, it is my rule of thumb that exactly zero rookie WRs land among my top 40 or so fantasy prospects until they have proven their skills extensively in training camp and preseason games - and even then I tend to be conservative about drafting them early - I would urge fantasy owners to be very leery of rookie wideouts.

James Hardy appears to have landed in the best situation among the draftees, with a legitimate shot at capturing the #2 wide receiver position on the Buffalo Bills. Other than Lee Evans, the Bills’ WRs generated 1 receiving TD last year (Josh Reed was #2 in yardage with 51/578/0) - not exactly what the coaching staff was looking for, to say the least. However, don’t go overboard with your enthusiasm for Hardy - the Bills were 30th in the NFL when it came to passing offense, so his ceiling as the #2 WR (if he gets that far) is relatively low compared to a player on a franchise like New England.

DeSean Jackson figures to be in the mix in Philadelphia, but the team spreads the ball around quite a bit - the 2nd best receiver on the Eagles over the past two years failed to get over 800 yards receiving or score more than 5 times, and the players at WR3 and below are non-factors in fantasy terms.

Devin Thomas may challenge for playing time in Washington, but with a developing young QB in Jason Campbell and an entrenched #1 WR in Santana Moss combined with a high-scoring TE hogging red-zone chances (Chris Cooley has 6 or more TDs in each of his first 4 seasons) - Thomas will have significant obstacles to overcome before he starts putting up the kind of statistics that make fantasy owners excited.

Malcolm Kelly - see Devin Thomas above.

Jerome Simpson landed with Cincinnati while the Bengals are searching for a replacement WR3 - if he can wow the coaching staff in training camp and sew up the WR3 spot, he could put up decent numbers now and then during 2008.

Rookie Quarterbacks

Excepting Peyton Manning , the exception who proves the rule, no rookie QB has been a fantasy standout during recent memory - even Dan Marino took one season to get up to speed before exploding during his second campaign way back in 1984. Unless you are convinced that Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco or any of the other draftees this year are of the caliber of a Peyton Manning or a Dan Marino, you should probably pass on them during your redraft league’s annual draft.

Matt Ryan will likely get his chance to start during 2008, perhaps early on in the season if Chris Redman falters during training camp. Ryan is sure to suffer typical rookie growing pains once he does get into the lineup, so he probably won’t have any games worth mentioning until very late in the season, if then.

Joe Flacco may be the heir apparent in Baltimore, but he’s currently buried behind Kyle Boller and Troy Smith (last year’s draft pick at the position). The Ravens got burned the last time they rushed a QB into the starting lineup (witness Boller’s checkered career with Baltimore) - they aren’t likely to make the same mistake with Flacco. He’ll likely carry the clipboard after preseason, with occasional spot duty in blow out wins or losses.

Rookie Tight Ends

Rookie tight ends are very seldom worth drafting - Tony Gonzalez scored 2 TDs in his rookie campaign (33/368/2), as did Antonio Gates (24/389/2), as did the ultra-hyped rookie TE of 2007, Greg Olsen (39/391/2). The three above examples are actually best-case scenarios for the vast majority of rookie TEs - the position is very demanding at the pro level and it simply takes more than 1 training camp and regular season to absorb all the duties that are asked of a pro TE. Among the 2008 draftees, expect 300+ and 1-2 TDs to be a ceiling when you are crafting your projections.

New Seahawk John Carlson will battle Jeb Putzier for playing time during 2008, and could end up starting for Seattle sooner rather than later. He is the TE prospect who landed in the best situation (such as it is) from the fantasy perspective.

Dustin Keller arrives to the Jets via a first round pick, but he’ll have to earn his way into the starting lineup - solid-but-unspectacular Chris Baker has scored 4 TDs in 2 of the past 4 seasons, and posted 41/409/3 last year. Keller will have the opportunity to learn the position from Baker and another veteran TE, Bubba Franks, this season. Keller is a guy to watch as the year progresses - he might be worth a flyer in free agency late in the season (just before fantasy playoffs) if he manages to earn playing time during 2008.

The NFL Draft is an exciting time of year for football junkies, but it is just the beginning of a long process. Don’t let your draft weekend enthusiasm drown out your better judgement as you prepare your preliminary draft lists for 2008. We have yet to get an inkling who among the draftees will fulfill their promise, which ones will outperform expectations - and how many will go bust in their first season as a pro football players.

2.32: Phillip Merling, DE, Miami Dolphins

Pass rusher had some injury woes but was effective off the edge when healthy. Has the size (6′5″, 272 pounds) that Bill Parcells covets. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.33: Donnie Avery, WR, St. Louis Rams

Quite a surprise. The first WR off the board is a small, uber fast guy considered a mid round pick by most scouts. Hard to believe he can replace Isaac Bruce without a few years of seasoning. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.34: Devin Thomas, WR, Washington Redskins (via Oakland through Atlanta)

The Redskins draft the WR many expected to be first off the WR board. Devin Thomas only had one big year at Michigan but has great size (6′2″, 215 pounds) and can also help as a kickoff returner. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.35: Brandon Flowers, CB, Kansas City Chiefs

If Flowers ran a tenth of a second faster, he would’ve been a mid 1st rounder. Great choice for the rebuilding Chiefs. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.36: Jordy Nelson, WR, Green Bay Packers (via New York Jets)

Another surprising WR selection. Was WR really a need for Green Bay with Driver, Jennings and Jones on the roster? Should help on special teams right away. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.37: Curtis Lofton, LB, Atlanta Falcons

Tackling machine, ideally suited for the inside where he can flow downfield to the ball. Not someone good in space and must be put in the right scheme to succeed. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.38: John Carlson, TE, Seattle Seahawks (via Baltimore)

Mike Holmgren called this a need, and the ‘hawks felt Carlson was a perfect fit for their West Coast offense. Carlson put up big numbers with Brady Quinn under center, as a reminder. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.39: Chilo Rachal, OG, San Francisco 49ers

Rachal gets knocked for not being a great athlete, but he’s technically sound and has a mean streak. As long as he plays inside and isn’t asked to pull and extend to the 2nd level much, he could be a starter immediately. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.40: Tracy Porter, CB, New Orleans Saints

Ironic that the Saints draft a cornerback with the 40th pick; considering there were rumors all week that the 40th pick would be part of a package to acquire Eagles CB Lito Sheppard. Porter is good at tracking the ball but isn’t a sure tackler or much help supporting the run.

2.41: James Hardy, WR, Buffalo Bills

The Bills landed the top corner in the draft last round and, in my opinion, the best receiver in the draft at 2.41. Hardy is a big guy who isn’t afraid of contact. He goes up for the ball and runs good routes; which helps offset a lack of breakaway speed.

2.42: Eddie Royal, WR, Denver Broncos

Royal is one of a handful of receivers who also project as solid returner at the next level. At only 5′8″, 184 pounds, Royal will need to prove he can hold up as a receiver over the course of the season. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.43: Tyrell Johnson, S, Minnesota Vikings (via Carolina through Philadelphia)

Kenny Phillips has the bigger name, but Johnson may have the bigger game. The Vikes continue to bolster their defense with another solid young, physical player. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.44: Matt Forte, RB, Chicago Bears

I’m not crazy about Forte; I don’t believe he’s a special back nor was he the best back left on the board. However, Forte has his supporters and it’s not inconceivable he could earn the starting gig over Cedric Benson sooner rather than later.

2.45: Jordon Dizon, OLB, Detroit Lions

Dizon lacks ideal size and speed; but like many solid NFL linebackers before him, he just makes plays. He’s instinctive and a sound tackler; exactly the kind of guy Rod Marinelli can build around. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.46: Jerome Simpson, WR, Cincinnati Bengals

Further proof that beauty is in the eye of the beholder at WR this year. Simpson wasn’t close to the best WR prospect on the board, but clearly the Bengals felt otherwise. At least, this pick fills a need given the release of Chris Henry and concerns about Chad Johnson’s status.

2.47: Trevor Laws, DT, Philadelphia Eagles (via Minnesota)

The Eagles finally make a pick, and it’s clearly a “best player available” selection. Defensive tackle was hardly a major need, but Laws is a high character, high motor guy who will add depth to an already young tackle rotation.

2.48: Fred Davis, TE, Washington Redskins (via Houston through Atlanta)

The Redskins are committed to getting QB Jason Campbell weapons. First Devin Thomas and now a pass-receiving tight end a few picks later. Davis doesn’t project into an elite tight end, but the Redskins don’t need him to be given the presence of Chris Cooley.

2.49: DeSean Jackson, WR/KR, Philadelphia Eagles

Many Birds fans wouldn’t have complained if Jackson was the pick in the 1st round. So to trade down, grab a 2009 1st rounder as compensation and get DeSean anyway was a coup. He’s tiny (169 pounds) but is blazing fast and unstoppable in the open field. He instantly gives the Eagles the best returner they’ve had in 5 years.

2.50: Calais Campbell, DE, Arizona Cardinals

You don’t find many 6′8″, 280 pound ends; yet Campbell fell into the 2nd round because of an uneven 2007 season. He was a stud in 2006 and, as long as the Cards play him at the right position, should combine with free agent Clark Haggans to improve the Cards pass rush.

2.51: Malcolm Kelly, WR, Washington Redskins

Sure, he’s slower than you would like. But have teams watched this kid play? He’s a polished route runner, has great hands and excellent body control. Very reminiscent of the year Chad Johnson fell because of his slow 40-time; the Skins got a steal.

2.52: Quentin Groves, DE, Jacksonville Jaguars (via Tampa Bay)

The Jags have a stifling defense already, but they aren’t great at putting pressure on opposing QBs. Adding Quentin Groves in the 2nd after taking Derrick Harvey 8th overall goes a long way to changing the Jags pass rush. Groves character issues aside, this was a solid pick.

2.53: Limas Sweed, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers

Some scouts love Sweed, some see him as a bust. At 53rd overall, the Steelers aren’t risking a lot financially to find out if he’s the next Plaxico Burress. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.54: Jason Jones, DE, Tennessee Titans

Jones could replace Antwan Odom right away, but he’s a bit raw to expect that. Eventually the Titans see Jones as a capable 2-way end in their 4-3 defense. His skill set is more suited to defensive tackle, but his size projects him as an end.

2.55: Ray Rice, RB, Baltimore Ravens (via Seattle)

Ray Rice is a local product who was wildly productive as the main ball carrier for Rutgers. While he lacks prototypical size, his low center of gravity and style make him more than capable of being an every down back if needed.

2.56: Brian Brohm, QB, Green Bay Packers (via Cleveland)

Now that’s kind of surprising. Or is it? The Pack took Aaron Rodgers in the 1st when Brett Favre was under center, so why wouldn’t they take the most accurate QB prospect in the 2nd round given Rodgers inexperience? Worst case, he’s a backup for a few years. Best case, he outplays Rodgers and ends up starting in a year or two.

2.57: Chad Henne, QB, Miami Dolphins (via San Diego)

How about that? It looks like Jake Long may be blocking for Chad Henne for a few more years. Another smart pick. He could easily outplay Beck and McCown to win the job; at the very lesaet he’s a big armed, young backup for a good price.

2.58: Dexter Jackson, WR/KR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (via Jacksonville)

This was a reach pick. While Jackson is another potentially dangerous return man; he needs a lot of maturing as a route runner before he can reasonably play WR on a regular basis. Blistering speed (4.33) though and dangerous in the open field.

2.59: Mike Pollak, OG/C, Indianapolis Colts

A classic Colts pick. Their only 1st day pick and it’s a fundamentally sound center that they project as a starting offensive guard for now and possibly a replacement for Jeff Saturday later. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.60: Patrick Lee, DB, Green Bay Packers

A hard worker, Lee may someday start at corner but not for a few seasons. In the meantime, he can be a force on special teams and perhaps play nickel back particularly in run support situations. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.61: Martellus Bennett, TE, Dallas Cowboys

I like this pick more than most. For my money, Bennett was the top TE in this draft. He’s huge, is a good blocker who can become great, and should be a key red zone target given his height and willingness to go up for the ball. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.62: Terrence Wheatley, CB, New England Patriots

The Pats always seem to find value and this was no exception. Wheatley is a legitimate shutdown cover corner who, were it not for myriad injuries in college, would’ve been in the hunt for a top 15 selection. Either way, he’ll help the Pats on defense and special teams.

2.63: Terrell Thomas, CB, New York Giants

Thomas is the 217th USC Trojan to be drafted in the first two rounds (not really, just feels that way). If the Giants view him as a corner, I don’t like this pick. But if they’re going to try to convert him to safety; where his deficiencies can be obfuscated somewhat, the choice makes more sense.

Panthers get:

• 19th pick (used to select OT Jeff Otah)

Eagles get:

• 43rd pick (2nd round)
• 109th pick (4th round)
• 2009 1st round pick

The Panthers traded up with Philadelphia to acquire OT Jeff Otah. Clearly the Panthers want to re-establish themselves as a power, smash mouth running team. Jon Stewart is that kind of runner, and Otah is that kind of blocker. Otah is a massive, road grader with a mean streak.

Fantasy Impact: Otah is a road grader and, combined with Jon Stewart, makes a compelling case for Stewart to be the most productive fantasy RB in 2008.

RB Jonathan Stewart becomes the 13th overall pick; a surprising selection in my view. While Stewart was considered a top-3 option at the RB position, he had turf toe surgery a few months ago and that likely put some teams off. As it turns out, the Panthers team doctor is the one who performed the surgery, so clearly they got a clean bill of health where other teams might not have. Stewart is a huge, power runner who can block and catch. There’s not much to dislike save for his injury questions.

Fantasy Impact: Wow, this is the first major fantasy shakeup. Yet again it appears that fantasy owners like DeAngelo Williams a lot more than the Panthers coaching staff. By selecting Stewart 13th overall, there’s no way you can safely project Williams as a fantasy stud this year. More likely, Williams and Stewart will share the carries in what amounts to a very run heavy offensive game plan.

The Panthers seem bound and determined to not be a one-man show in the receiving game this year. Although I don’t have the hard metrics to back this up, I think it’s fair to say Steve Smith has been among the most double-teamed receivers in the NFL over his career; if for no other reason than the lack of quality receiving options at other positions.

In 2008, things look brighter, at least on paper.

The Panthers have signed free agent D.J. Hackett to a 2-year, $3.5mm deal and will pair him opposite Smith, while veteran Muhsin Muhammad mans the 3rd spot. Hackett was clearly the best FA receiver left on the market, and his inability to land a big contract had many wondering whether he would turn tail and return to the Seahawks.

While Hackett didn’t break the bank, he does end up in an intriguing situation. Assuming QB Jake Delhomme is healthy, the Panthers have the makings of an offense that could throw for 4,000 yards this season. Smith should be the main benefactor, but there should be plenty of targets left for Hackett.

The key for Hackett is to REMAIN HEALTHY. Hackett missed 10 games last season and has started only 14 games in his four-year career. When healthy, Hackett is a big (6′2″, 208 pounds) receiver capable of making plays in traffic.

Hard not to like this signing if you’re a Panthers fan. No financial commitment of any consequence yet they land one of the few young (Hackett is 26 years old) free agent receivers with the potential to become an above average starter.

It wasn’t long ago that defensive tackle was considered one of the pre-eminent positions in the league. GMs and coaches coveted young defensive tackles that showed even a hint of promise. Aging run stuffers seemingly have endless job opportunities. Logically speaking, this is as much about the physical uniqueness of the position as anything. How many 300+ pound, athletic guys exist in the gene pool? Now ask yourself how many of them can also master an NFL playbook, play with a high motor, stay healthy, and make plays game in, game out. Sounds like a rarity? IT IS.

It also wasn’t long ago that NFL trades were a rarity.

Yet, both of those notions are being turned on their head this offseason. A bevy of the league’s defensive tackles have been traded in recent days. And the trades haven’t involved developmental backups, either. The trades read like a laundry list of the league’s top tackles, young and old.

Marcus Stroud traded to the Bills for 3rd and 5th round picks in 2008

Stroud (6′6″, 310 pounds, 29 years old) requested a trade from the Jaguars and was granted his request when the Bills came forward. From 2003-2005, Stroud was arguably the most dominant run-stuffer in the league; pairing with John Henderson to form a daunting interior. But after three consecutive Pro Bowls, Stroud hurt his ankle in 2006 and had microfracture surgery. He missed time rehabbing in 2006 and the ankle again impacted his play in 2007. On top of that, Stroud was suspended four games for violating the league’s substance abuse program. Assuming Stroud is healthy, he gives the Bills a major upgrade in place of the recently released Larry Tripplett. He’s only 29 years old and has three years remaining on his deal; so the Bills have relatively little risk in making this move.

Kris Jenkins traded to the Jets for 3rd and 5th round picks in 2008

It wasn’t long ago that Jenkins (6′4″, 335 pounds, 28 years old) was considered THE elite young tackle in the league. He notched All Pro nods in his 2nd and 3rd years, combining solid run-stopping technique with an intense inside pass rush (12 sacks in 2002-2003). Jenkins then suffered setbacks in 2004 (shoulder) and 2005 (ACL) which robbed him of his status as an elite player. To his credit, Jenkins rebounded in 2006 and earned his 3rd Pro Bowl nod; and played all 16 games in 2007, as well. Unlike Stroud, Jenkins will be asked to play a different position. The Jets use a 3-4 defensive front and Jenkins will be the team’s new nose tackle. It will be an adjustment but Jenkins has a wide body and low center of gravity, so the adjustment shouldn’t be problematic. For his troubles, the Jets signed him to a new 5-year, $35mm extension.

Shaun Rogers traded to the Browns for CB Leigh Bodden and a 3rd round pick in 2008

Rogers is a physical marvel (6′4″, 340 pounds, 28 years old) with the athleticism of a defensive end but the size of a traditional run stuffer. Perhaps no better indication of his athleticism than the fact he’s blocked 11 (yes, 11!) kicks in his career. In seven seasons in Detroit, he started nearly every game and finished last season with a career high 7 sacks. He signed a six-year extension after the 2004 season and was, at the time, viewed as one of the best young lineman in the NFL. He added Pro Bowl nods to his resume in the following two seasons. However, Rogers injured 2006 season got him off on the wrong foot with new head coach Rod Marinelli, and their relationship never appeared to recover despite a solid 2007 campaign. Rogers will significantly enhance the Browns front line; and the Browns won’t have to immediately commit to a new contract for him.

Corey Williams traded to the Browns for a 2nd round pick in 2008

Williams (6′4″, 313 pounds, 27 years old) emerged this season in Green Bay as a 4-3 tackle capable of periodic dominance. Despite being part of a rotation in Green Bay, Williams put up 14 sacks over the last two years in addition to 69 tackles. The Packers franchised Williams and seemed ready to commit to him long-term. But shortly after the start of free agency, the Packers shipped Williams to the Browns for a 2nd round pick. The Browns will use Williams as a defensive end in the 3-4 scheme and have signed him to a new 6-year, $38mm deal that guarantees him $14mm.

So is this trade frenzy indicative of a new NFL paradigm or simply a statistical quirk of this offseason? It seems that NFL teams are no longer beholden keeping high priced players around hoping they will learn to fit into the system and/or get over their unhappiness at the situation. Will all of these deals work out for the acquiring teams? Certainly not. But in early March when every deal has an optimistic light, it certainly seems like the acquiring teams landed key contributors that would’ve been impossible to find through the draft or free agency.

The deadline for teams to apply the franchise or transition tag designations ended at 4:30 pm EST yesterday; so now it’s time to recap what happened and evaluate some of the moves (and non-moves).

Twelve (12) teams used the franchise tag designation:

• CB Nmandi Asomugha (Oakland)
• CB Marcus Trufant (Seattle)
• DE Jared Allen (Kansas City)
• DT Albert Haynesworth (Tennessee)
• DT Corey Williams (Green Bay)
• LB Karlos Dansby (Arizona)
• LB Terrell Suggs (Baltimore)
• OT Stacy Andrews (Cincinnati)
• OT Jordan Gross (Carolina)
• S Ken Hamlin (Dallas)
• TE Dallas Clark (Indianapolis)
• TE L.J. Smith (Philadelphia)

Most Surprising Tag: Stacy Andrews

Andrews played quite well last season, but it was his first year as a starter. The Bengals still have Levi Jones and Willie Anderson in the picture; although that may change now that Andrews has been tagged. Given the importance of Carson Palmer and Andrews’ age, the move isn’t a total shocker; although few outside of die hard Bengals fans expected it.

Most Surprising Non-Tag: Randy Moss 

As we discussed last night, not tagging Randy Moss is shocking only if they don’t already have a long-term deal completed; but unannounced until the February 29th start of free agency. We expect he IS under contract, but if this proves untrue, this may be the most shocking non-tag decision of the modern era.

Other Surprising Non-Tags 

• OT Flozell Adams (Dallas) – Adams is no spring chicken, and the Cowboys did use their tag on someone else (Ken Hamlin), but this is a bold move if the Cowboys don’t end up re-signing Adams. He has played at a high level the last few seasons and the team doesn’t have someone of his caliber (or close to it) currently on the roster. Will Jerry Jones be willing to go to battle with a young, unproven tackle in 2008?
• PK Josh Brown (Seattle) — The Seahawks tagged Brown last year and it was thought he could be tagged again this season; but now free agency looms. It’s never an easy decision to let a proven kicker walk, but perhaps they didn’t see the logic in making him the highest paid PK in the league.

Interesting Tag Minutiae

• Exclusive tag versus non-exclusive – As we discussed earlier this week, Nmandi Asomugha was tagged with an exclusive franchise designation, meaning the Raiders paid him more (the average of the 2008 top 5 projected salaries versus the 2007 in a normal tag) in exchange for keeping Asomugha from being able to negotiate with other teams. It’s telling that only one of twelve teams opted to use this tag; as it involves paying a player more yet brings less wiggle room. Why a team would pass up the idea of getting 2 first round picks if a team wants their free agent badly enough is a mystery (the Raiders would still have had the right to match).
• Is Suggs a linebacker or defensive end? — The Baltimore Ravens tagged Terrell Suggs as a linebacker, but he has filed a grievance contending he should be paid as a defensive end. The difference? About $800K for the one-year tender. This matter will be settled shortly (if Suggs lined up more than 50% of the snaps as an end, he’ll get his extra dough), but it’s odd that Suggs, who has gone to the Pro Bowl twice as a LINEBACKER would think of himself otherwise.

Most Likely to Sign a Long-term Deal: Dallas Clark

OK, this is cheating since Clark already signed a 6-year deal to remain with the Colts.

Least Likely to Sign a Long-term Deal:  L.J. Smith

The Eagles remain concerned about Smith’s health and likely won’t agree to a long-term extension without seeing improvement on the field. This is basically a one-year option to retain a talented, system TE in a very weak free agent market for tight ends.

How did we do in our predictions?

We previewed each division and our thoughts on potential tag candidates. Overall, I’d say we did quite well.

• We correctly predicted 9 of 10 ‘definites’; our only whiff was on Randy Moss
• We noted that Flozell Adams and Ken Hamlin were possibilities in Dallas [although we leaned toward Adams]
• We noted that Brown and Trufant were possibilities in Seattle [and leaned toward Trufant]
• We noted DT Corey Williams and WR Bernard Berrian as possible tags [one out of two]
• We suggested that Justin Smith shouldn’t be tagged

Now it’s onto free agency and the NFL draft!
Related Blogs:

• ‘Tis the Season for Tagging
• NFC East Potential Tag Candidates
• NFC North Potential Tag Candidates
• NFC South Potential Tag Candidates
• NFC West Potential Tag Candidates
• AFC East Potential Tag Candidates
• AFC North Potential Tag Candidates
• AFC South Potential Tag Candidates
• AFC West Potential Tag Candidates

Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons are unlikely to use either the franchise or transition tag designations this offseason.

Carolina Panthers

OT Jordan Gross

The Panthers could lose both tackles in free agency, which would be an inauspicious outcome for a team that has to make a playoff push to appease fans and ownership this season. While Gross may not be one of the five best tackles in football, he is a promising young player with starting experience on both sides of the line. Expect the team to try to lock him down to a multi-year deal or he’ll probably get tagged by February 21st.

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New Orleans Saints

Two important members of the offensive line, C Jeff Faine and OG Jamar Nesbit are free agents, but neither is expected to be tagged as the Saints look toward taking a rational approach toward bringing back some of their key free agent contributors.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Bucs are unlikely to use either tag designation on their free agents; none would warrant the type of financial commitment a tag brings with it.

Many have never heard of Matt Moore. Is he a punter? Kicker? Who is Matt Moore? Well, Moore is the next in line to start at quarterback for the Carolina Panthers. Jake Delhomme has a surgically repaired passing arm. Vinny Testaverde has a bad achilles. David Carr is awful and suffered a concussion. The awful part outweighs any injury. So, in steps Matt Moore. When asked Coach Fox was asked if Moore was ready to play an entire game, he replied:

Fox replied: “It depends on how you define ready. He’s a guy who we thought stepped in on short notice yesterday and made a couple of good plays and one not so good.”

That is not a ringing endorsement at all. But, the one player who is happy to find David Carr not in the huddle is Steve Smith. Carr could not find the star receiver if they were the only two people in a room. The former first round pick was sacked seven times against the Titans in week nine. I guess Carr thought he was still a Texan.

Matt Moore is a rookie from Oregon State who was in camp with the Cowboys before being released. He looked good in preseason, but the Cowboys did not have room for him on the roster. The Panthers liked what they saw and claimed him off of waivers. The 6′3″, 202-pound passer is still very young. He is only 23 years old and may get a big start for the 4-4 Panthers. It is remarkable that the Panthers have a .500 record. If starting, Moore would get a good matchup against the Atlanta Falcons.

My good friend Mark Wimer took a fairly in depth look at the Panthers signing of Vinny Testaverde and discussed his chances as the Panthers potential emergency starting QB. As most of you know, Vinny is OLD by NFL standards. This will be his 21st NFL season; a remarkable accomplishment in a league where the average player suits up less than four years.

As Testaverde embarks on a potential start this weekend, it got me wondering how many QBs have suited up and played for as long. Using our Data Dominator, I took a look at all the QBs (since 1960) that attempted at least one pass in their 20th season or later.

That’s it folks. Not exactly a resounding endorsement for Vinny to shock the world, is it? The good news, if you can call it that, is Vinnie needs only 35 completions, 392 yards and 4 TDs to overtake Earl Morrall for 2nd all-time on this list. If he gets two or three starts in Carolina, he’ll likely do just that.

The Panthers have suffered a rash of injuries at the QB position, and in response to the loss of Jake Delhomme and the serious back injury to David Carr, they have signed the venerable and celebrated Vinny Testaverde. Carr missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday, and is looking very iffy to play this weekend - actually, for some time to come.

Here’s how Carr described his back injury (remember, this is from a guy who got sacked and hit roughly a gazillion times in Houston):

“When I got hit, I felt like I got sat on and twisted, and every bone in my back popped all the way to the back of my neck. It was by far the worst pain I’ve ever felt in my life. There was no doubt. I was rolling around out there like an idiot, but that’s how it felt. I was like, ‘Stop moving.’ I was trying to tell myself, but I couldn’t.”

Given the above, I’d say his prospects for playing any time soon are pretty dim. However, there remain a lot of questions to be answered about why the Panthers made this move.

First of all, why would the Panthers turn to Testaverde at this juncture, rather than, say, Tim Rattay or Chris Weinke (besides the fact that Weinke stinks, I mean)? There are several reasons - the one that tops the list is that Testaverde has 21 years of NFL experience - as he put it on Wednesday:

“I haven’t told them yet, but I have probably forgot more football than these guys already know. We’ll have some fun with that.”

There is no question that in his years in the league, Testaverde has learned more playbooks and played in more schemes than any other free agent available at this point in the 2007 season. Also, he spent last season in New England, backing up Tom Brady - Carolina’s OC Jeff Davidson (a former New England assistant) has installed a scheme based on the Patriots’ offense. So Testaverde’s learning curve in Carolina should be shorter than just about any other guy they might have tried to add to the roster during week 6 of the regular season.

Another question that leaps to mind is “Can Testaverde still play at age 43?” Well, he certainly believes he can - in May, when he was around the New England organization, and Karen Guregian of the Boston Herald filed the following comments about Testaverde participating in OTA’s (May 23rd):

“Free agent QB Vinny Testaverde is taking part in Patriots passing camp this week, and it is not just for fun. According to Mike Azzarelli, a close friend and associate of the Testaverde, the 43-year-old has not retired, nor does he have any plans to do so. He’s looking for work. He’s looking to add a 21st season to his distinguished resume. “He’s not retired. I doubt he’d be hanging out,” said Azzarelli when asked about Testaverde’s appearance in Foxboro this week. “He’s intent on playing.” Azzarelli is no longer an agent, but continues to work for Testaverde.”

Testaverde was signed to a one year deal on August 18th, and participated in practice sessions until being cut on September 1st - he hasn’t just been sitting on the couch since last year, waiting for the phone to ring, friends.

Another point to consider when asking the question “Can Testaverde still play?” is his personal history. He was reviled for years as one of the biggest draft busts ever after an unsuccessful start to his career in Tampa Bay (even though he is still the all-time franchise passing leader, by the way). Tampa never did better than 6-10 during his time starting there, from partway through 1987 until he was replaced by Craig Erickson in 1993 (Tampa posted a cumulative record of 28-67 from ‘87-’93). It would have been very easy to give up, move on, and find another line of work - but Testaverde never lost confidence in himself or his abilities. He has been to the Pro Bowl twice since his sojourn in Tampa, after his ‘96 campaign with the Ravens and after his ‘98 campaign with the Jets. Vinny Testaverde has fought through extreme adversity to become considered a success as a pro QB, and practically nobody besides he (and maybe his mom and dad) would have predicted that back in 1993.

The challenge of taking over the reins in Carolina during Week 6 of 2007 is small potatoes for Vinny Testaverde, folks.

Another thing that remains to be seen is whether or not Testaverde can establish a strong rapport with Steve Smith and the rest of the Panthers quickly - but that’s another thing he has done many times before in his various NFL stops. (Tampa Bay, Cleveland, Baltimore, NYJ, Dallas, NYJ, New England, and now Carolina). There is no reason to expect him to suddenly lose his leadership skills.

The final question we are faced with is “Does Vinny Testaverde have anything left in the tank?” Well, most recently he tossed 297/495 for 3,532 yards, 17 TDs and 20 interceptions (21/38/1 rushing) for the Dallas Cowboys back in 2004. The team went 6-10 that year, but posting 3532 yards passing as QB with an aging Keyshawn Johnson (70/981/6) as your #1 wide receiver - Terry Glenn only managed 6 games in 2004 due to injury (24/400/2), and Antonio Bryant was third on the team with 16/266/0 over 5 games and then he was out of the picture - with a bunch of youngsters (Patrick Crayton posted 7 games for 12/162/1) or aging never-have-beens (Quincy Morgan was 4th on the squad with 9 games for 22/260/0) as Testaverde’s targets was actually an impressive feat, in retrospect.

We’ll see what Testaverde has to offer the Panthers very soon - probably this Sunday vs. Arizona - but I wouldn’t bet against him, personally. If you need a #2 fantasy QB for your squad given all the injuries over the past few weeks, you could do worse than to pick up Testaverde.

This has been a crazy year for quarterbacks. Many have been injured, and out for the year while some have been just plain inefficient.

Let’s look at some of the journeymen passers that either started in Week Five or might start in Week Six:

• Trent Dilfer (SF) – The consummate game manager and fantasy quarterback least likely for success. If he enters your fantasy lineup, you are probably doomed for a loss.
• Gus Frerotte (STL) — The veteran from Tulsa has played with several teams and knows coach Linehan’s system. But, we would be fooling ourselves if we thought he was a healthy Bulger’s peer. He is a desperate start in week six.
• David Carr or Vinny Testaverde (CAR) — Pick your poison. Which is worse? I see a toss up. Maybe Vinny would be able to find Steve Smith. I know he is not a tall fellow, but Smith should be easy to find if Kerry Colbert and Drew Carter are the other options.
• Kurt Warner (ARI) – He has a great matchup this week. But, how many games do we really expect before Warner is injured? Enter Tim Rattay. You know, the guy who could not beat out Kerry Collins. Gulp. Hang on to your hats, Boldin and Fitzgerald owners, it might be a bumpy ride.
• Kelly Holcomb (MIN) — We all know Holcomb as the guy who could not beat out Craig Nall or A.J. Feeley. With the receivers the Vikings have, would you really want to start Holcomb? Me either.

This list does not even include the likes of Daunte Culpepper, Cleo Lemon, and Byron Leftwich. This has been a rough year for passers getting hurt. Look for some additional passers to be benched from here on out for the young guns. This is the time in the fantasy season where it gets ugly, real ugly, for fantasy quarterbacks during the bye week crunch. So, good luck to those of you starting one of the above quarterbacks … you just might need it. If these guys were rock bands, they would not even make the amusement park circuit.

Jake Delhomme will undergo ligament-replacement surgery and is done for the season.

While Delhomme’s lost is obviously a blow to any fantasy owner that drafted him, it’s arguably a bigger blow to those owners who spent a first or second round draft pick on Steve Smith; the Panthers star receiver. Given Delhomme’s ADP, it stands to reason most owners drafted him as a fantasy backup; so even if they were playing him in the early going, they should have someone of equivalent value to insert into the lineup.

But Steve Smith is another matter. The consensus #1 ranked fantasy wideout started off the season with a bang:

• Week One: 7 receptions for 118 yards and 1 TD
• Week Two: 8 receptions for 153 yards and 3 TDs

But since Delhomme went down to injury, Smith has fallen on hard times:

• Week Three: 1 reception for 10 yards, 0 TDs [note: Delhomme was injured midway through Week 3]
• Week Four: 5 receptions for 32 yards, 0 TDs
• Week Five: 4 receptions for 47 yards, 1 TD

With David Carr also hurt (and struggling) and unheralded rookie Matt Moore the Panthers backstop QB; the chances of Smith returning to elite form are sketchy, at best. Will Smith perform better than he’s shown in recent weeks? Quite possibly, but if you’ve got any chance of getting substantial value for Smith, it’s now before other owners in your league have the time to revalue Smith’s suboptimal situation.

Greg Jennings didn’t practice again today and appears very questionable for this week’s game. While Donald Driver appears healthy after an injury-riddled preseason, we still don’t know if he’s 100% either. That means two things:

1) Brett Favre is probably left on your bench

2) Rookie James Jones may be an intriguing utility starter in deeper leagues this week

Every year, there are a number of second- and third-year defensive ends that break out as they grow into their position physically and mentally. Last year, saw Robert Geathers, Bobby McCray and Aaron Kampman explode onto the NFL scene with double digit sacks. Veteran IDPers know how important it is to find undervalued defensive players late in drafts and on the waiver wire and there looks to be a deeper list of candidates along the defensive line this season than any in recent memory. Don’t forget about Geathers and McCray, who will both have expanded roles this year, but keep a watchful eye on the following candidates to grab late in your draft or as early season free agents.

Stanley McClover (CAR) — McClover declared for the 2006 draft as a college junior and fell to the seventh round due to concerns about his physical maturity. McClover spent most of 2006 on the inactive lists, learning from Julius Peppers and Mike Rucker. After adding 15 pounds to his already considerable edge rushing skills, McClover’s solid offseason may have earned him the majority of snaps in the base defense this year. He may still rotate with Mike Rucker and Charles Johnson, but has big potential if he can get 40 or more snaps a game.

Ray Edwards (MIN) — The Vikings have been waiting for someone to stay healthy and productive long enough to generate a consistent pass rush. Kenechi Udeze hasn’t been able to do it, neither has Erasmus James. Edwards flashed at times last year and has been given the RDE job. His primary responsibility will be rushing the quarterback in Leslie Frazier’s aggressive scheme.

Elvis Dumervil (DEN) — I suggested avoiding Dumervil in IDP leagues in one of my weekly Reading the Defense subscriber columns last season, dismissing him as a situational pass rusher. Two things have changed since then. First, Dumervil gets the benefit of lining up a little wider in Jim Bates’ defensive scheme, which will give him a better angle to get to the quarterback and allow him to maximize his speed rush while minimizing his size disadvantage. Second, the loss of Ebenezer Ekuban will significantly increase Dumervil’s snaps. Dumervil showed his explosiveness in 2006 and may better those numbers in 2007. A must roster in big play leagues.

Darryl Tapp (SEA) — With the mediocre Grant Wistrom and Bryce Fisher finally on the outs, Tapp gets his opportunity in 2007. Another undersized pass rusher who took some extra time to mature, Tapp will start opposite free agent acquisition Patrick Kerney. If he can hold up as an every down player, Tapp also has big pass rush potential.

Justin Tuck (NYG) — Tuck’s value is dependent on Michael Strahan staying home. After getting lost in the depth the Giants had at end over the past two seasons, Tuck is in line for a starting job if Strahan elects not to play with Mathias Kiwanuka moved to SLB. Tuck is a very solid all-around defensive end and opposing offensive coordinators will be focusing on Osi Umenyiora. Tuck is very likely to go undrafted, but needs to be watched very closely if Strahan sits.

Mario Williams (HOU) — Williams is probably still valued by most casual IDP owners on name recognition. He should be firmly on your radar should he slip. Williams wasn’t nearly as bad as the media made him out to be last year when comparing him to Reggie Bush. Struggling through a toe problem, Williams held his own. With his explosiveness likely back in 2007, we may finally see the all-around talent that made him the first overall pick last year.

Jamaal Anderson (ATL) — Anderson is the only 2007 rookie on this list. Rookie defensive ends rarely have an every-down impact but those that do (Hali, Peppers, etc) often fit Anderson’s profile. Impact rookie defensive ends are usually mostly polished players. They have a solid frame to stand up at the point of attack. They have some understanding of how to use their hands and lower body in leverage. They have more than one pass rush move. You’ll find a one-trick pass rusher (Dwight Freeney) or situational stud (Mark Anderson) now and then, but the rookie DEs to target in IDP redrafts are those with the best all-around skill sets.

The NFL Season is just two weeks away, and Fantasy Football drafts are happening all over the country. My eyes are about to pop out of my head from watching 40+ NFL preseason games either in entirety, in fast forward (stopping to catch several key plays) or even on the NFL.com highlight reel. My two DVRs are jam-packed still, but time is a-wastin’.

With that in mind, I have gone through my offensive player rankings for Footballguys for perhaps the last time before Week 1. For obvious reasons I cannot provide my entire rankings list here (subscriber only content), but I can tell you about a few tweaks that I made. There are several changes across the board, mostly minor upticks and downgrades, but I thought it would help some to know about the major moves I made and why:

Tight Ends:

Take a look here for my overall TE redraft rankings as well as several other Footballguys staff’s opinions.

Tight Ends are often overlooked and discounted as not worth much in Fantasy Football, but certain players can make a key difference and win you several games over the course of a fantasy season. Here at Footballguys we focus on ranking TEs based solely on touchdown and yardage (no points per reception bonuses), so if those come into play in your particular league also keep that in mind. Every point matters.

Based on what I have seen, read and heard over the past few weeks, I have only one player that is really moving up a lot and it shouldn’t surprise you if you read my changes at wide receiver. Pittsburgh is going to throw more this year and I think that benefits not just Santonio Holmes but also Heath Miller. Miller will be going deeper and down the seam more, and I think he could crack the Top 10 TE list for 2007.

Tennessee is struggling to find competent receivers. Last season, Vince Young relied on his two tight ends - Bo Scaife and Ben Troupe - to help him to sustain drives. This year it appears that it is all about Scaife and there are even rumors that Troupe is on the trading block. Target Scaife and move Troupe down your list.

Jacksonv