Now that the NFL Draft is in the books, we are standing on the cusp of the NFL preseason. During the coming weeks, rookie mini-camps will grind into gear and hard-core fantasy owners will start the process of evaluating this year’s draft picks potential for “instant impact” during 2008. In redraft fantasy football leagues, one key requirement for the kind of production that fantasy owners crave is opportunity. A player like TE Martellus Bennett (a 2nd-round selection by Dallas) may have all the talent in the world, but his chances for a meaningful 2008 season in fantasy terms are very slight due to being buried on the depth chart behind All-Pro TE Jason Witten.

The below is a preliminary list of the top rookie prospects for redraft fantasy leagues, given their new NFL homes.

Rookie Running Backs

The running back position is where the fantasy gems among the rookies are most likely to be found. While it is true that for every Adrian Peterson (Minnesota) or Joseph Addai one can point at, there are also players like J.J. Arrington or Chris Perry who serve as a counter-examples, it is also true that running backs tend to make the quickest transition to playing at the NFL level. A fantasy owner is most likely to find an “instant impact” player among the rookie running backs in any given calendar year.

Jonathan Stewart is probably the best bet at running back to generate fantasy impact during his rookie season. He is the sort of running back that the Panthers’ coaching staff prefers, and they have been retooling their offensive line for a power running attack - Stewart fits the mold that Carolina is built to utilize. DeAngelo Williams simply isn’t the player the coaching staff wants to rely on as their #1 RB - he is better suited to a change-of-pace, 3rd-down role in their scheme. Stewart figures to have plenty of touches on the ball with the Panthers this year.

Darren McFadden is a boom-or-bust type prospect. Yes, he has the type of speed and top gear that make him a threat to go to the house on every down, and he projects to be the starter with the Raiders (assuming his contract negotiations go well and he avoids a JaMarcus Russell-type holdout scenario). However, there is a crowded RB stable in Oakland, with Justin Fargas coming off a 1000+ yard season - if McFadden struggles with the pro game, he may not get many chances to redeem himself.

Kevin Smith lands with the Lions, who really like his game and seem to be indicating that the starting job is his to lose during 2008. We’ll see if their actions match their draft-day rhetoric - but Tatum Bell hasn’t looked like the answer since he arrived in Detroit, and as of today, he is the only other back of note on the team. If Smith impresses in training camp it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him starting for the Lions in September.

Matt Forte comes into a by-committee backfield situation, with both Cedric Benson and Adrian Peterson grinding out 3.4 yards per carry last season. Peterson was far more productive than Benson in the passing game (51/420/0 receiving vs. 17/123/0) and actually led the team in total yardage and fantasy points at the RB position last year. Benson has greatly underperformed his draft slot (1st round -4th pick in 2005) and may find himself riding the pine if Forte proves that he outperform Benson during training camp.

Rashard Mendenhall is likely to be Willie Parker’s primary backup for this year, but given Parker’s difficulty at the goal-line last year (321/1316/2 rushing), Mendenhall could find a role as the Steelers’ goal-line back (Najeh Davenport gained 107/499/5 rushing and 18/184/2 as the Steelers’ big back/change of pace back last year). If Mendenhall seals the #2 job with Pittsburgh, he could have value in basic scoring leagues (any league where TD production is the primary scoring criteria).

Felix Jones joins fellow rookie Tashard Choice as the new backups to Marion Barber III. Barber looks set to carry the majority of the load for Dallas, but Jones’ outside speed will give him a shot to earn playing time as the 3rd down back/passing down back - depending on how quickly Jones picks up the Cowboys’ offense and learns to pick up the blitz.

Rookie Wide Receivers

Second to the running backs, rookie WRs occasionally step into the NFL and make fantasy owners’ seasons. The most obvious example of this phenomenon would be Randy Moss’s first incredible season (69/1313/17) with Minnesota (he was the #1 fantasy WR as a rookie) - Larry Fitzgerald’s 58/780/8 as a rookie was also pretty outstanding for a rookie WR (30th best fantasy WR during 2004). However, it is far more often the case that rookie WRs bust (especially in their first season of NFL action). The last time I fell hard for a rookie WR’s potential, I ended up having Rashaun Woods among my preseason top 36 fantasy prospects - only to watch him fail miserably at the NFL level. Now-a-days, it is my rule of thumb that exactly zero rookie WRs land among my top 40 or so fantasy prospects until they have proven their skills extensively in training camp and preseason games - and even then I tend to be conservative about drafting them early - I would urge fantasy owners to be very leery of rookie wideouts.

James Hardy appears to have landed in the best situation among the draftees, with a legitimate shot at capturing the #2 wide receiver position on the Buffalo Bills. Other than Lee Evans, the Bills’ WRs generated 1 receiving TD last year (Josh Reed was #2 in yardage with 51/578/0) - not exactly what the coaching staff was looking for, to say the least. However, don’t go overboard with your enthusiasm for Hardy - the Bills were 30th in the NFL when it came to passing offense, so his ceiling as the #2 WR (if he gets that far) is relatively low compared to a player on a franchise like New England.

DeSean Jackson figures to be in the mix in Philadelphia, but the team spreads the ball around quite a bit - the 2nd best receiver on the Eagles over the past two years failed to get over 800 yards receiving or score more than 5 times, and the players at WR3 and below are non-factors in fantasy terms.

Devin Thomas may challenge for playing time in Washington, but with a developing young QB in Jason Campbell and an entrenched #1 WR in Santana Moss combined with a high-scoring TE hogging red-zone chances (Chris Cooley has 6 or more TDs in each of his first 4 seasons) - Thomas will have significant obstacles to overcome before he starts putting up the kind of statistics that make fantasy owners excited.

Malcolm Kelly - see Devin Thomas above.

Jerome Simpson landed with Cincinnati while the Bengals are searching for a replacement WR3 - if he can wow the coaching staff in training camp and sew up the WR3 spot, he could put up decent numbers now and then during 2008.

Rookie Quarterbacks

Excepting Peyton Manning , the exception who proves the rule, no rookie QB has been a fantasy standout during recent memory - even Dan Marino took one season to get up to speed before exploding during his second campaign way back in 1984. Unless you are convinced that Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco or any of the other draftees this year are of the caliber of a Peyton Manning or a Dan Marino, you should probably pass on them during your redraft league’s annual draft.

Matt Ryan will likely get his chance to start during 2008, perhaps early on in the season if Chris Redman falters during training camp. Ryan is sure to suffer typical rookie growing pains once he does get into the lineup, so he probably won’t have any games worth mentioning until very late in the season, if then.

Joe Flacco may be the heir apparent in Baltimore, but he’s currently buried behind Kyle Boller and Troy Smith (last year’s draft pick at the position). The Ravens got burned the last time they rushed a QB into the starting lineup (witness Boller’s checkered career with Baltimore) - they aren’t likely to make the same mistake with Flacco. He’ll likely carry the clipboard after preseason, with occasional spot duty in blow out wins or losses.

Rookie Tight Ends

Rookie tight ends are very seldom worth drafting - Tony Gonzalez scored 2 TDs in his rookie campaign (33/368/2), as did Antonio Gates (24/389/2), as did the ultra-hyped rookie TE of 2007, Greg Olsen (39/391/2). The three above examples are actually best-case scenarios for the vast majority of rookie TEs - the position is very demanding at the pro level and it simply takes more than 1 training camp and regular season to absorb all the duties that are asked of a pro TE. Among the 2008 draftees, expect 300+ and 1-2 TDs to be a ceiling when you are crafting your projections.

New Seahawk John Carlson will battle Jeb Putzier for playing time during 2008, and could end up starting for Seattle sooner rather than later. He is the TE prospect who landed in the best situation (such as it is) from the fantasy perspective.

Dustin Keller arrives to the Jets via a first round pick, but he’ll have to earn his way into the starting lineup - solid-but-unspectacular Chris Baker has scored 4 TDs in 2 of the past 4 seasons, and posted 41/409/3 last year. Keller will have the opportunity to learn the position from Baker and another veteran TE, Bubba Franks, this season. Keller is a guy to watch as the year progresses - he might be worth a flyer in free agency late in the season (just before fantasy playoffs) if he manages to earn playing time during 2008.

The NFL Draft is an exciting time of year for football junkies, but it is just the beginning of a long process. Don’t let your draft weekend enthusiasm drown out your better judgement as you prepare your preliminary draft lists for 2008. We have yet to get an inkling who among the draftees will fulfill their promise, which ones will outperform expectations - and how many will go bust in their first season as a pro football players.

2.32: Phillip Merling, DE, Miami Dolphins

Pass rusher had some injury woes but was effective off the edge when healthy. Has the size (6′5″, 272 pounds) that Bill Parcells covets. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.33: Donnie Avery, WR, St. Louis Rams

Quite a surprise. The first WR off the board is a small, uber fast guy considered a mid round pick by most scouts. Hard to believe he can replace Isaac Bruce without a few years of seasoning. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.34: Devin Thomas, WR, Washington Redskins (via Oakland through Atlanta)

The Redskins draft the WR many expected to be first off the WR board. Devin Thomas only had one big year at Michigan but has great size (6′2″, 215 pounds) and can also help as a kickoff returner. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.35: Brandon Flowers, CB, Kansas City Chiefs

If Flowers ran a tenth of a second faster, he would’ve been a mid 1st rounder. Great choice for the rebuilding Chiefs. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.36: Jordy Nelson, WR, Green Bay Packers (via New York Jets)

Another surprising WR selection. Was WR really a need for Green Bay with Driver, Jennings and Jones on the roster? Should help on special teams right away. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.37: Curtis Lofton, LB, Atlanta Falcons

Tackling machine, ideally suited for the inside where he can flow downfield to the ball. Not someone good in space and must be put in the right scheme to succeed. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.38: John Carlson, TE, Seattle Seahawks (via Baltimore)

Mike Holmgren called this a need, and the ‘hawks felt Carlson was a perfect fit for their West Coast offense. Carlson put up big numbers with Brady Quinn under center, as a reminder. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.39: Chilo Rachal, OG, San Francisco 49ers

Rachal gets knocked for not being a great athlete, but he’s technically sound and has a mean streak. As long as he plays inside and isn’t asked to pull and extend to the 2nd level much, he could be a starter immediately. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.40: Tracy Porter, CB, New Orleans Saints

Ironic that the Saints draft a cornerback with the 40th pick; considering there were rumors all week that the 40th pick would be part of a package to acquire Eagles CB Lito Sheppard. Porter is good at tracking the ball but isn’t a sure tackler or much help supporting the run.

2.41: James Hardy, WR, Buffalo Bills

The Bills landed the top corner in the draft last round and, in my opinion, the best receiver in the draft at 2.41. Hardy is a big guy who isn’t afraid of contact. He goes up for the ball and runs good routes; which helps offset a lack of breakaway speed.

2.42: Eddie Royal, WR, Denver Broncos

Royal is one of a handful of receivers who also project as solid returner at the next level. At only 5′8″, 184 pounds, Royal will need to prove he can hold up as a receiver over the course of the season. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.43: Tyrell Johnson, S, Minnesota Vikings (via Carolina through Philadelphia)

Kenny Phillips has the bigger name, but Johnson may have the bigger game. The Vikes continue to bolster their defense with another solid young, physical player. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.44: Matt Forte, RB, Chicago Bears

I’m not crazy about Forte; I don’t believe he’s a special back nor was he the best back left on the board. However, Forte has his supporters and it’s not inconceivable he could earn the starting gig over Cedric Benson sooner rather than later.

2.45: Jordon Dizon, OLB, Detroit Lions

Dizon lacks ideal size and speed; but like many solid NFL linebackers before him, he just makes plays. He’s instinctive and a sound tackler; exactly the kind of guy Rod Marinelli can build around. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.46: Jerome Simpson, WR, Cincinnati Bengals

Further proof that beauty is in the eye of the beholder at WR this year. Simpson wasn’t close to the best WR prospect on the board, but clearly the Bengals felt otherwise. At least, this pick fills a need given the release of Chris Henry and concerns about Chad Johnson’s status.

2.47: Trevor Laws, DT, Philadelphia Eagles (via Minnesota)

The Eagles finally make a pick, and it’s clearly a “best player available” selection. Defensive tackle was hardly a major need, but Laws is a high character, high motor guy who will add depth to an already young tackle rotation.

2.48: Fred Davis, TE, Washington Redskins (via Houston through Atlanta)

The Redskins are committed to getting QB Jason Campbell weapons. First Devin Thomas and now a pass-receiving tight end a few picks later. Davis doesn’t project into an elite tight end, but the Redskins don’t need him to be given the presence of Chris Cooley.

2.49: DeSean Jackson, WR/KR, Philadelphia Eagles

Many Birds fans wouldn’t have complained if Jackson was the pick in the 1st round. So to trade down, grab a 2009 1st rounder as compensation and get DeSean anyway was a coup. He’s tiny (169 pounds) but is blazing fast and unstoppable in the open field. He instantly gives the Eagles the best returner they’ve had in 5 years.

2.50: Calais Campbell, DE, Arizona Cardinals

You don’t find many 6′8″, 280 pound ends; yet Campbell fell into the 2nd round because of an uneven 2007 season. He was a stud in 2006 and, as long as the Cards play him at the right position, should combine with free agent Clark Haggans to improve the Cards pass rush.

2.51: Malcolm Kelly, WR, Washington Redskins

Sure, he’s slower than you would like. But have teams watched this kid play? He’s a polished route runner, has great hands and excellent body control. Very reminiscent of the year Chad Johnson fell because of his slow 40-time; the Skins got a steal.

2.52: Quentin Groves, DE, Jacksonville Jaguars (via Tampa Bay)

The Jags have a stifling defense already, but they aren’t great at putting pressure on opposing QBs. Adding Quentin Groves in the 2nd after taking Derrick Harvey 8th overall goes a long way to changing the Jags pass rush. Groves character issues aside, this was a solid pick.

2.53: Limas Sweed, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers

Some scouts love Sweed, some see him as a bust. At 53rd overall, the Steelers aren’t risking a lot financially to find out if he’s the next Plaxico Burress. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.54: Jason Jones, DE, Tennessee Titans

Jones could replace Antwan Odom right away, but he’s a bit raw to expect that. Eventually the Titans see Jones as a capable 2-way end in their 4-3 defense. His skill set is more suited to defensive tackle, but his size projects him as an end.

2.55: Ray Rice, RB, Baltimore Ravens (via Seattle)

Ray Rice is a local product who was wildly productive as the main ball carrier for Rutgers. While he lacks prototypical size, his low center of gravity and style make him more than capable of being an every down back if needed.

2.56: Brian Brohm, QB, Green Bay Packers (via Cleveland)

Now that’s kind of surprising. Or is it? The Pack took Aaron Rodgers in the 1st when Brett Favre was under center, so why wouldn’t they take the most accurate QB prospect in the 2nd round given Rodgers inexperience? Worst case, he’s a backup for a few years. Best case, he outplays Rodgers and ends up starting in a year or two.

2.57: Chad Henne, QB, Miami Dolphins (via San Diego)

How about that? It looks like Jake Long may be blocking for Chad Henne for a few more years. Another smart pick. He could easily outplay Beck and McCown to win the job; at the very lesaet he’s a big armed, young backup for a good price.

2.58: Dexter Jackson, WR/KR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (via Jacksonville)

This was a reach pick. While Jackson is another potentially dangerous return man; he needs a lot of maturing as a route runner before he can reasonably play WR on a regular basis. Blistering speed (4.33) though and dangerous in the open field.

2.59: Mike Pollak, OG/C, Indianapolis Colts

A classic Colts pick. Their only 1st day pick and it’s a fundamentally sound center that they project as a starting offensive guard for now and possibly a replacement for Jeff Saturday later. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.60: Patrick Lee, DB, Green Bay Packers

A hard worker, Lee may someday start at corner but not for a few seasons. In the meantime, he can be a force on special teams and perhaps play nickel back particularly in run support situations. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.61: Martellus Bennett, TE, Dallas Cowboys

I like this pick more than most. For my money, Bennett was the top TE in this draft. He’s huge, is a good blocker who can become great, and should be a key red zone target given his height and willingness to go up for the ball. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.62: Terrence Wheatley, CB, New England Patriots

The Pats always seem to find value and this was no exception. Wheatley is a legitimate shutdown cover corner who, were it not for myriad injuries in college, would’ve been in the hunt for a top 15 selection. Either way, he’ll help the Pats on defense and special teams.

2.63: Terrell Thomas, CB, New York Giants

Thomas is the 217th USC Trojan to be drafted in the first two rounds (not really, just feels that way). If the Giants view him as a corner, I don’t like this pick. But if they’re going to try to convert him to safety; where his deficiencies can be obfuscated somewhat, the choice makes more sense.

It’s hard to call yourself an NFL fan without acknowledging the omnipresent retirement talk surrounding Brett Favre the last few seasons. Whether it be a hasty press conference at a charity golf tournament to tell us he hasn’t decided yet, or the constant paralysis by analysis last offseason until he made it official; Favre has been toying with retirement for a few seasons now.

Ironically, it was THIS offseason when the chatter had died down some. Coming off a 13-3 season and an MVP-caliber performance (by far his best personal stats in years), most [myself included] assumed Favre would return in 2008 to make one more run at a Super Bowl title.

That’s what we all get for becoming complacent.

This morning, Brett “4″ Favre announced his retirement.

• Voice mail from Brett Favre to Chris Mortensen

Listening to that voice mail, you get the sense of what enormous pressure Favre put on himself to improve on 2007. And he’s right, anything less than a Super Bowl appearance would’ve been “less” than what they accomplished this year in many people’s minds.Today is a day to salute one of the greatest QBs to ever play the game.Favre’s Accomplishments

• Three time (3) MVP [the only 3-time MVP in league history]
• Seven (7) All Pro selections
• Nine (9) Pro Bowl selections
• 253 consecutive starts [something that will probably never be broken]
• 1st all-time, pass attempts (8,758)
• 1st all-time, pass completions (5,377)
• 1st all-time, passing yards (61,655)
• 1st all-time, passing TDs (442)
• 2 Super Bowl appearances
• 1 Super Bowl victory

It wouldn’t be right for a Footballguys tribute not to mention what a potent fantasy football player Favre was…

Favre’s Fantasy Accomplishments

Exhibit 1: Favre is the all-time leader among QBs in fantasy points scored (1960-Present)

Exhibit 2: Fantasy points per game (Min: 100 games played)

Exhibit 3: Consistency from start to finish

• Finished no worse than 13th among fantasy QBs for SIXTEEN (16) consecutive years
• Finished among the top 10 fantasy QB a record FOURTEEN (14) seasons
• Finished among the top 8 a record TWELVE (12) seasons
• Seven (7) top-5 finishes
• Five (5) top-2 finishes
• Three (3) CONSECUTIVE #1 fantasy rankings

Nothing makes a fantasy player happier than a gunslinger who piles on the yards. Favre was one of the best, let’s never forget that.

It wasn’t long ago that defensive tackle was considered one of the pre-eminent positions in the league. GMs and coaches coveted young defensive tackles that showed even a hint of promise. Aging run stuffers seemingly have endless job opportunities. Logically speaking, this is as much about the physical uniqueness of the position as anything. How many 300+ pound, athletic guys exist in the gene pool? Now ask yourself how many of them can also master an NFL playbook, play with a high motor, stay healthy, and make plays game in, game out. Sounds like a rarity? IT IS.

It also wasn’t long ago that NFL trades were a rarity.

Yet, both of those notions are being turned on their head this offseason. A bevy of the league’s defensive tackles have been traded in recent days. And the trades haven’t involved developmental backups, either. The trades read like a laundry list of the league’s top tackles, young and old.

Marcus Stroud traded to the Bills for 3rd and 5th round picks in 2008

Stroud (6′6″, 310 pounds, 29 years old) requested a trade from the Jaguars and was granted his request when the Bills came forward. From 2003-2005, Stroud was arguably the most dominant run-stuffer in the league; pairing with John Henderson to form a daunting interior. But after three consecutive Pro Bowls, Stroud hurt his ankle in 2006 and had microfracture surgery. He missed time rehabbing in 2006 and the ankle again impacted his play in 2007. On top of that, Stroud was suspended four games for violating the league’s substance abuse program. Assuming Stroud is healthy, he gives the Bills a major upgrade in place of the recently released Larry Tripplett. He’s only 29 years old and has three years remaining on his deal; so the Bills have relatively little risk in making this move.

Kris Jenkins traded to the Jets for 3rd and 5th round picks in 2008

It wasn’t long ago that Jenkins (6′4″, 335 pounds, 28 years old) was considered THE elite young tackle in the league. He notched All Pro nods in his 2nd and 3rd years, combining solid run-stopping technique with an intense inside pass rush (12 sacks in 2002-2003). Jenkins then suffered setbacks in 2004 (shoulder) and 2005 (ACL) which robbed him of his status as an elite player. To his credit, Jenkins rebounded in 2006 and earned his 3rd Pro Bowl nod; and played all 16 games in 2007, as well. Unlike Stroud, Jenkins will be asked to play a different position. The Jets use a 3-4 defensive front and Jenkins will be the team’s new nose tackle. It will be an adjustment but Jenkins has a wide body and low center of gravity, so the adjustment shouldn’t be problematic. For his troubles, the Jets signed him to a new 5-year, $35mm extension.

Shaun Rogers traded to the Browns for CB Leigh Bodden and a 3rd round pick in 2008

Rogers is a physical marvel (6′4″, 340 pounds, 28 years old) with the athleticism of a defensive end but the size of a traditional run stuffer. Perhaps no better indication of his athleticism than the fact he’s blocked 11 (yes, 11!) kicks in his career. In seven seasons in Detroit, he started nearly every game and finished last season with a career high 7 sacks. He signed a six-year extension after the 2004 season and was, at the time, viewed as one of the best young lineman in the NFL. He added Pro Bowl nods to his resume in the following two seasons. However, Rogers injured 2006 season got him off on the wrong foot with new head coach Rod Marinelli, and their relationship never appeared to recover despite a solid 2007 campaign. Rogers will significantly enhance the Browns front line; and the Browns won’t have to immediately commit to a new contract for him.

Corey Williams traded to the Browns for a 2nd round pick in 2008

Williams (6′4″, 313 pounds, 27 years old) emerged this season in Green Bay as a 4-3 tackle capable of periodic dominance. Despite being part of a rotation in Green Bay, Williams put up 14 sacks over the last two years in addition to 69 tackles. The Packers franchised Williams and seemed ready to commit to him long-term. But shortly after the start of free agency, the Packers shipped Williams to the Browns for a 2nd round pick. The Browns will use Williams as a defensive end in the 3-4 scheme and have signed him to a new 6-year, $38mm deal that guarantees him $14mm.

So is this trade frenzy indicative of a new NFL paradigm or simply a statistical quirk of this offseason? It seems that NFL teams are no longer beholden keeping high priced players around hoping they will learn to fit into the system and/or get over their unhappiness at the situation. Will all of these deals work out for the acquiring teams? Certainly not. But in early March when every deal has an optimistic light, it certainly seems like the acquiring teams landed key contributors that would’ve been impossible to find through the draft or free agency.

The deadline for teams to apply the franchise or transition tag designations ended at 4:30 pm EST yesterday; so now it’s time to recap what happened and evaluate some of the moves (and non-moves).

Twelve (12) teams used the franchise tag designation:

• CB Nmandi Asomugha (Oakland)
• CB Marcus Trufant (Seattle)
• DE Jared Allen (Kansas City)
• DT Albert Haynesworth (Tennessee)
• DT Corey Williams (Green Bay)
• LB Karlos Dansby (Arizona)
• LB Terrell Suggs (Baltimore)
• OT Stacy Andrews (Cincinnati)
• OT Jordan Gross (Carolina)
• S Ken Hamlin (Dallas)
• TE Dallas Clark (Indianapolis)
• TE L.J. Smith (Philadelphia)

Most Surprising Tag: Stacy Andrews

Andrews played quite well last season, but it was his first year as a starter. The Bengals still have Levi Jones and Willie Anderson in the picture; although that may change now that Andrews has been tagged. Given the importance of Carson Palmer and Andrews’ age, the move isn’t a total shocker; although few outside of die hard Bengals fans expected it.

Most Surprising Non-Tag: Randy Moss 

As we discussed last night, not tagging Randy Moss is shocking only if they don’t already have a long-term deal completed; but unannounced until the February 29th start of free agency. We expect he IS under contract, but if this proves untrue, this may be the most shocking non-tag decision of the modern era.

Other Surprising Non-Tags 

• OT Flozell Adams (Dallas) – Adams is no spring chicken, and the Cowboys did use their tag on someone else (Ken Hamlin), but this is a bold move if the Cowboys don’t end up re-signing Adams. He has played at a high level the last few seasons and the team doesn’t have someone of his caliber (or close to it) currently on the roster. Will Jerry Jones be willing to go to battle with a young, unproven tackle in 2008?
• PK Josh Brown (Seattle) — The Seahawks tagged Brown last year and it was thought he could be tagged again this season; but now free agency looms. It’s never an easy decision to let a proven kicker walk, but perhaps they didn’t see the logic in making him the highest paid PK in the league.

Interesting Tag Minutiae

• Exclusive tag versus non-exclusive – As we discussed earlier this week, Nmandi Asomugha was tagged with an exclusive franchise designation, meaning the Raiders paid him more (the average of the 2008 top 5 projected salaries versus the 2007 in a normal tag) in exchange for keeping Asomugha from being able to negotiate with other teams. It’s telling that only one of twelve teams opted to use this tag; as it involves paying a player more yet brings less wiggle room. Why a team would pass up the idea of getting 2 first round picks if a team wants their free agent badly enough is a mystery (the Raiders would still have had the right to match).
• Is Suggs a linebacker or defensive end? — The Baltimore Ravens tagged Terrell Suggs as a linebacker, but he has filed a grievance contending he should be paid as a defensive end. The difference? About $800K for the one-year tender. This matter will be settled shortly (if Suggs lined up more than 50% of the snaps as an end, he’ll get his extra dough), but it’s odd that Suggs, who has gone to the Pro Bowl twice as a LINEBACKER would think of himself otherwise.

Most Likely to Sign a Long-term Deal: Dallas Clark

OK, this is cheating since Clark already signed a 6-year deal to remain with the Colts.

Least Likely to Sign a Long-term Deal:  L.J. Smith

The Eagles remain concerned about Smith’s health and likely won’t agree to a long-term extension without seeing improvement on the field. This is basically a one-year option to retain a talented, system TE in a very weak free agent market for tight ends.

How did we do in our predictions?

We previewed each division and our thoughts on potential tag candidates. Overall, I’d say we did quite well.

• We correctly predicted 9 of 10 ‘definites’; our only whiff was on Randy Moss
• We noted that Flozell Adams and Ken Hamlin were possibilities in Dallas [although we leaned toward Adams]
• We noted that Brown and Trufant were possibilities in Seattle [and leaned toward Trufant]
• We noted DT Corey Williams and WR Bernard Berrian as possible tags [one out of two]
• We suggested that Justin Smith shouldn’t be tagged

Now it’s onto free agency and the NFL draft!
Related Blogs:

• ‘Tis the Season for Tagging
• NFC East Potential Tag Candidates
• NFC North Potential Tag Candidates
• NFC South Potential Tag Candidates
• NFC West Potential Tag Candidates
• AFC East Potential Tag Candidates
• AFC North Potential Tag Candidates
• AFC South Potential Tag Candidates
• AFC West Potential Tag Candidates

Chicago Bears

WR Bernard Berrian

The Bears probably aren’t going to use their tags; but there’s an outside chance the team tags WR Bernard Berrian. If not with the franchise tag, than possibly the transition tag. Berrian has developed into the team’s best receiver and, given his size and age, would be highly coveted if the Bears let him get into the open market.

Note: Some of you have asked why I didn’t include LB Lance Briggs as an option. Although Briggs is certainly worthy of the designation, the Bears agreed not to tag him this season after he agreed to sign his one-year tender last offseason.

Detroit Lions

The Lions are unlikely to use their tag designations this offseason.

Green Bay Packers

DT Corey Williams

Corey Williams is a long shot to be tagged, but he plays a coveted position and has proven himself a disruptive interior pass rusher (7 sacks in consecutive seasons). If the Packers don’t tag him, they stand an excellent chance of losing his services to a team willing to pay him premium money with an eye toward making him a full-time starter.

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Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings are unlikely to use their designations this offseason; none of their potential free agents would justify the financial commitment.

The Ol’ Gunslinger — Brett Favre — wants to return for an 18th season…

“For the first time in three years, I haven’t thought this could be my last game,” Favre told the Biloxi Sun-Herald newspaper. “I would like to continue longer.”

My how quickly things can change in the NFL. A year ago at this time, most people assumed Brett Favre would either retire or limp back for one more season in order to break Dan Marino’s all-time records before exiting unceremoniously out the door. Now, after an MVP-like season that saw the Packers win 13 games (and counting), Favre seems ready to not only return in 2008, but to make another run at contention.

Want to know how things will get interesting? Let’s see if the Packers can win the Super Bowl this year. IF they were to win the SB, I could see Favre calling it a career; but otherwise, fantasy owners and NFL fans can expect him back slinging passes around with aplomb in 2008.

Big-time congratulations to Brett Favre who became the NFL’s all-time leader in passing yards; and did so on a day when his team a) won the game and b) wrapped up a first round bye in this year’s playoffs.

A lot of people are stunned at the Packers 12-2 record but perhaps they should be even more surprised with the way Favre has returned to an MVP-like form after several years of declining productivity.

Here are a few of the records Brett Favre now possesses:

• 1st all-time passing attempts
• 1st all-time pass completions
• 1st all-time passing yards
• 1st all-time passing TDs
• 1st all-time interceptions thrown
• 1st all-time in wins
• 1st all-time NFL MVP awards
• 1st all-time in consecutive games played for a QB

Tonight we’re treated to a matchup of football titans. 10-1 Dallas hosts 10-1 Green Bay in a battle of the all-time best gunslinger against the young franchise QB most reminiscent of him. The Cowboys came into the season as one of the odds on favorites to win the NFC, but the Packers were considered an over-the-hill franchise that might have been better off letting Favre retire, and focusing on rebuilding.

It’s thinking like that which reminds us of the difference between fans pretending they run NFL franchises and ACTUALLY having to run one.

And while this matchup should be entertaining and full of fantasy football goodness; unfortunately a good chunk of the NFL-watching populous is going to have to wait for the highlights on SportsCenter. You see, tonight’s game will be broadcast on the NFL Network; which isn’t currently carried in a lot of places. This is the 2nd year of the NFL Network’s exclusive contract to carry Thursday night games in November and December; but it’s the first game that should actually ignite fans to complain to their cable providers about the lack of NFL Network access.

Fun times indeed.

But, as a DirecTV owner, I will be comfortably positioned in front of my TV ready to watch the best NFC game of the year.

For those playing at home, here is a tale of the tape:

Enjoy the game (or enjoy hearing about the game after the fact )

The gray-haired passer from Southern Miss is playing great. There are a few reasons for the improved play over last season. His receivers are upgraded and playing well. The Packers have four strong pass catchers: Donald Driver, Greg Jennings, Koren Robinson, and James Jones. This receiving corps has made the big plays, and had fewer drops than in 2006. Plus, tight end Donald Lee has been a big surprise. Let’s examine what the aging superstar has done so far this season:

9 Games

Completed 238 of 354 for a completion percentage of 67%

2757 passing yards for 7.8 average yards per pass attempt

16 scoring throws as opposed to only 8 picks
To put these numbers into perspective, the 38 year old has only been under 70% completion percentage three games this season, which is incredible. He has only passed for less than 300 yards three times in 2007, and is averaging over 300 passing yards a game. Now, let’s look at his career averages (over a 250 game career) to see if the “old man” has lost a step after throwing his first pass in 1991:

Completion percentage: 61%

Average yards per attempt: 7.0

Passing yards per game: 241

Touchdown/Interception ratio: 1.5

Even though Brett Favre has had some great seasons as a Packer, his stats this season are much better than his career average in most every category. He is on pace to finish as the fifth best quarterback in standard scoring fantasy leagues. He has not finished the season with a better rank than fifth since the 1998 season where he finished second behind a 37 year old Steve Young.

Even at the age of 38, Brett Favre is on pace to break his career highs in the following categories:

Passing yards: on pace for 4,901 yards

Completion percentage: 67%

Average yards per pass attempt: 7.8

Brett Favre is giving Green Bay Packer fans, and the fans of the NFL, a season to remember. If number four does retire this offseason, he will go out with a bang. His Packers are 8-1 and in the thick of the chase for home field advantage throughout the playoffs.

The Packers have defied the odds this year. They currently rank dead last in rushing (492 yards) yet have soared to a 6-1 record thanks to a resurgent Brett Favre and an opportunistic defense.

Entering the season, the Packers running attack was considered a potential weakness, but no one could’ve predicted the litany of injuries:

• Vernand Morency was expected to shoulder the load but a lingering knee injury kept him out until Week 4; and he’s since been a non-factor
• Brandon Jackson, a rookie that some thought could be the answer, struggled mightily in the first three games and then suffered a shin injury. He’s since been out or inactive
• DeShawn Wynn, another rookie (7th rounder) was the surprise hit of the group. He barreled for 50 yards and 2 TDs against the Giants in Week 2 and then had back-to-back solid efforts against Chicago and Washington in Weeks 5 and 6. Coming off the Week 7 bye, it looked like the Packers were ready to give Wynn a chance at the feature role. Unfortunately, he suffered a shoulder injury early in the game and is now done for the season.

So what now?

Enter Ryan Grant.  Grant, 6′1″, 218-pounds, was acquired late in the preseason from the Giants for a late round draft pick. Grant played at Notre Dame and was signed by the Giants as an undrafted free agent in 2005, spending most of his career on the Giants practice squad. As the Packers were scrambling for help at the position, Grant was considered an afterthought, a live body and little more.

But once Wynn went down on Monday night, Grant got his chance to shine. As I’m always fond of saying, the keys to fantasy success are Ability + Opportunity; and Grant made the most of his opportunity. He logged 22 carries for 104 yards against the Broncos, and caught 3 passes to boot.

Will Grant be the guy going forward?

It’s hard to project Grant for continued success; but he certainly will get at least one more week to prove the skeptics wrong.

“We always believed that he was a strong, one-cut runner, and I think he proved that tonight,” Packers personnel analyst John Schneider said. “He ran the ball hard, and he’s a tough guy who’s been waiting for an opportunity. He got his opportunity.”

“I think it’s safe to say Ryan Grant will be the starter when we got to Kansas City (on Sunday),” HC  Mike McCarthy said.

It’s that time of the year when any RB or WR that MIGHT contribute will be acquired on waivers. Grant should absolutely be worth a few of your free agent dollars this week; but don’t get too crazy. Remember, the Broncos run defense has been horrendous at stopping the run this year.

• 235 attempts allowed (28th in the NFL)
• 1,162 yards allowed (31st in the NFL)
• 4.94 yards per rush allowed (31st in the NFL)
• 6 rushing TDs allowed (22nd in the NFL)

Unless you just got back from a 3-month deep sea fishing expedition (in which case, welcome back!), you know that Brett Favre broke Dan Marino’s all-time TD pass mark this weekend.

All-Time TD Pass Leaders

* = Active Player
Link: Pro-Football-Reference

How long will Favre hold the record?

Marino overtook Fran Tarkenton for the record in the middle of the 1995 season, and held the league’s TD title for slightly more than 11 seasons. Favre seems unlikely to hold the record as long, thanks to Peyton Manning.

At 31 years old, Manning is already 7th on the all-time list with 283 TD passes. His career average of 1.91 TD passes per game stands as the best in league history (among qualified passers) and well ahead of Favre’s 1.72 TD passes per game.

All-Time TD Passes per Game (Min: 100 games played)

Based on Manning’s current TD/game rate, he would catch Brett Favre in 73 games.

• 422 TDs (Record) - 283 TDs (Manning:Current) = 139 TDs
• 139 TDs / 1.912 (Manning:TDperG) = 72.69 Games (Round to 73)

But there are factors to consider if we want to take an accurate stab at this prognostication.

1. Favre isn’t retired yet
2. Manning may not continue his current TD/Game pace as he ages

We have no idea how long Favre will continue to play, but I’m going to bet he’ll play through the 2008 season. If the Packers (currently 4-0) were to surprisingly win the Super Bowl this year, all bets are off. But for now, let’s say he plays out the next 28 games (12 more games in 2007, 16 in 2008).

*** At his career pace, that would give Favre another 48 TD passes ***

Now, let’s try to guesstimate what Manning’s TD/game mark will resemble over the next phase of his career. Manning is in his 10th season. Here are the TD/Game rates for some other all-time TD leaders through their first 10 seasons.

• Dan Marino (83-92): 1.92 TDs/Game
• Brett Favre (91-00): 1.76 TDs/Game
• Fran Tarkenton (61-70): 1.46 TDs/Game
• Warren Moon (84-93): 1.39 TDs/Game
• John Elway (83-92): 1.10 TDs/Game
• Joe Montana (79-88): 1.38 TDs/Game

Now let’s look at how they fared in their 11th season and beyond…

• Dan Marino (83-92): 1.43 TDs/Game
• Brett Favre (91-00): 1.67 TDs/Game
• Fran Tarkenton (61-70): 1.29 TDs/Game
• Warren Moon (84-93): 1.42 TDs/Game
• John Elway (83-92): 1.59 TDs/Game
• Joe Montana (79-88): 1.54 TDs/Game

As you can see, there is no hard and fast rule which says a QB has to fall off as he enters his 2nd decade in the league. In our above sampling, three of the all-time greats (Marino, Favre and Tarkenton) saw meaningful dips as they got older; but the other three (Moon, Elway and Montana) actually saw their output increase.

ON AVERAGE, there was only a 1% decline among the all-time greats at the position in their later years. While Manning could certainly see a decline, there’s not enough statistical evidence to say it’s likely.

So let’s get back to prognostication.

Favre has 422 TDs and is likely to throw another 48 if he plays through the 2008 season. If Manning stays healthy, and maintains his current TD/game pace throughout the 2nd part of his career, he will need another 98 games to break Favre’s All-Time TD record.

• 422 (Favre career TDs) + 48 (Remainder of Favre’s career) = 470 TDs
• Minus 283 (Manning career TDs) = 187 TDs to the record
• 187 / 1.912 (Manning: TD/G pace) = 97.8 games (Round to 98)

If Manning remains healthy, that means he’ll become the NFL’s All-Time Leading TD Passer in the 2013 Season. Get those tickets now!

Week two of the NFL season saw many players integral to fantasy football nicked up …. with some worse than others.

This is by no means an exhaustive list but shows how widespread the injuries were for skill position players.

QBs:

• Marc Bulger hurt is knee and ribs in week tw