Now that the NFL Draft is in the books, we are standing on the cusp of the NFL preseason. During the coming weeks, rookie mini-camps will grind into gear and hard-core fantasy owners will start the process of evaluating this year’s draft picks potential for “instant impact” during 2008. In redraft fantasy football leagues, one key requirement for the kind of production that fantasy owners crave is opportunity. A player like TE Martellus Bennett (a 2nd-round selection by Dallas) may have all the talent in the world, but his chances for a meaningful 2008 season in fantasy terms are very slight due to being buried on the depth chart behind All-Pro TE Jason Witten.

The below is a preliminary list of the top rookie prospects for redraft fantasy leagues, given their new NFL homes.

Rookie Running Backs

The running back position is where the fantasy gems among the rookies are most likely to be found. While it is true that for every Adrian Peterson (Minnesota) or Joseph Addai one can point at, there are also players like J.J. Arrington or Chris Perry who serve as a counter-examples, it is also true that running backs tend to make the quickest transition to playing at the NFL level. A fantasy owner is most likely to find an “instant impact” player among the rookie running backs in any given calendar year.

Jonathan Stewart is probably the best bet at running back to generate fantasy impact during his rookie season. He is the sort of running back that the Panthers’ coaching staff prefers, and they have been retooling their offensive line for a power running attack - Stewart fits the mold that Carolina is built to utilize. DeAngelo Williams simply isn’t the player the coaching staff wants to rely on as their #1 RB - he is better suited to a change-of-pace, 3rd-down role in their scheme. Stewart figures to have plenty of touches on the ball with the Panthers this year.

Darren McFadden is a boom-or-bust type prospect. Yes, he has the type of speed and top gear that make him a threat to go to the house on every down, and he projects to be the starter with the Raiders (assuming his contract negotiations go well and he avoids a JaMarcus Russell-type holdout scenario). However, there is a crowded RB stable in Oakland, with Justin Fargas coming off a 1000+ yard season - if McFadden struggles with the pro game, he may not get many chances to redeem himself.

Kevin Smith lands with the Lions, who really like his game and seem to be indicating that the starting job is his to lose during 2008. We’ll see if their actions match their draft-day rhetoric - but Tatum Bell hasn’t looked like the answer since he arrived in Detroit, and as of today, he is the only other back of note on the team. If Smith impresses in training camp it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him starting for the Lions in September.

Matt Forte comes into a by-committee backfield situation, with both Cedric Benson and Adrian Peterson grinding out 3.4 yards per carry last season. Peterson was far more productive than Benson in the passing game (51/420/0 receiving vs. 17/123/0) and actually led the team in total yardage and fantasy points at the RB position last year. Benson has greatly underperformed his draft slot (1st round -4th pick in 2005) and may find himself riding the pine if Forte proves that he outperform Benson during training camp.

Rashard Mendenhall is likely to be Willie Parker’s primary backup for this year, but given Parker’s difficulty at the goal-line last year (321/1316/2 rushing), Mendenhall could find a role as the Steelers’ goal-line back (Najeh Davenport gained 107/499/5 rushing and 18/184/2 as the Steelers’ big back/change of pace back last year). If Mendenhall seals the #2 job with Pittsburgh, he could have value in basic scoring leagues (any league where TD production is the primary scoring criteria).

Felix Jones joins fellow rookie Tashard Choice as the new backups to Marion Barber III. Barber looks set to carry the majority of the load for Dallas, but Jones’ outside speed will give him a shot to earn playing time as the 3rd down back/passing down back - depending on how quickly Jones picks up the Cowboys’ offense and learns to pick up the blitz.

Rookie Wide Receivers

Second to the running backs, rookie WRs occasionally step into the NFL and make fantasy owners’ seasons. The most obvious example of this phenomenon would be Randy Moss’s first incredible season (69/1313/17) with Minnesota (he was the #1 fantasy WR as a rookie) - Larry Fitzgerald’s 58/780/8 as a rookie was also pretty outstanding for a rookie WR (30th best fantasy WR during 2004). However, it is far more often the case that rookie WRs bust (especially in their first season of NFL action). The last time I fell hard for a rookie WR’s potential, I ended up having Rashaun Woods among my preseason top 36 fantasy prospects - only to watch him fail miserably at the NFL level. Now-a-days, it is my rule of thumb that exactly zero rookie WRs land among my top 40 or so fantasy prospects until they have proven their skills extensively in training camp and preseason games - and even then I tend to be conservative about drafting them early - I would urge fantasy owners to be very leery of rookie wideouts.

James Hardy appears to have landed in the best situation among the draftees, with a legitimate shot at capturing the #2 wide receiver position on the Buffalo Bills. Other than Lee Evans, the Bills’ WRs generated 1 receiving TD last year (Josh Reed was #2 in yardage with 51/578/0) - not exactly what the coaching staff was looking for, to say the least. However, don’t go overboard with your enthusiasm for Hardy - the Bills were 30th in the NFL when it came to passing offense, so his ceiling as the #2 WR (if he gets that far) is relatively low compared to a player on a franchise like New England.

DeSean Jackson figures to be in the mix in Philadelphia, but the team spreads the ball around quite a bit - the 2nd best receiver on the Eagles over the past two years failed to get over 800 yards receiving or score more than 5 times, and the players at WR3 and below are non-factors in fantasy terms.

Devin Thomas may challenge for playing time in Washington, but with a developing young QB in Jason Campbell and an entrenched #1 WR in Santana Moss combined with a high-scoring TE hogging red-zone chances (Chris Cooley has 6 or more TDs in each of his first 4 seasons) - Thomas will have significant obstacles to overcome before he starts putting up the kind of statistics that make fantasy owners excited.

Malcolm Kelly - see Devin Thomas above.

Jerome Simpson landed with Cincinnati while the Bengals are searching for a replacement WR3 - if he can wow the coaching staff in training camp and sew up the WR3 spot, he could put up decent numbers now and then during 2008.

Rookie Quarterbacks

Excepting Peyton Manning , the exception who proves the rule, no rookie QB has been a fantasy standout during recent memory - even Dan Marino took one season to get up to speed before exploding during his second campaign way back in 1984. Unless you are convinced that Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco or any of the other draftees this year are of the caliber of a Peyton Manning or a Dan Marino, you should probably pass on them during your redraft league’s annual draft.

Matt Ryan will likely get his chance to start during 2008, perhaps early on in the season if Chris Redman falters during training camp. Ryan is sure to suffer typical rookie growing pains once he does get into the lineup, so he probably won’t have any games worth mentioning until very late in the season, if then.

Joe Flacco may be the heir apparent in Baltimore, but he’s currently buried behind Kyle Boller and Troy Smith (last year’s draft pick at the position). The Ravens got burned the last time they rushed a QB into the starting lineup (witness Boller’s checkered career with Baltimore) - they aren’t likely to make the same mistake with Flacco. He’ll likely carry the clipboard after preseason, with occasional spot duty in blow out wins or losses.

Rookie Tight Ends

Rookie tight ends are very seldom worth drafting - Tony Gonzalez scored 2 TDs in his rookie campaign (33/368/2), as did Antonio Gates (24/389/2), as did the ultra-hyped rookie TE of 2007, Greg Olsen (39/391/2). The three above examples are actually best-case scenarios for the vast majority of rookie TEs - the position is very demanding at the pro level and it simply takes more than 1 training camp and regular season to absorb all the duties that are asked of a pro TE. Among the 2008 draftees, expect 300+ and 1-2 TDs to be a ceiling when you are crafting your projections.

New Seahawk John Carlson will battle Jeb Putzier for playing time during 2008, and could end up starting for Seattle sooner rather than later. He is the TE prospect who landed in the best situation (such as it is) from the fantasy perspective.

Dustin Keller arrives to the Jets via a first round pick, but he’ll have to earn his way into the starting lineup - solid-but-unspectacular Chris Baker has scored 4 TDs in 2 of the past 4 seasons, and posted 41/409/3 last year. Keller will have the opportunity to learn the position from Baker and another veteran TE, Bubba Franks, this season. Keller is a guy to watch as the year progresses - he might be worth a flyer in free agency late in the season (just before fantasy playoffs) if he manages to earn playing time during 2008.

The NFL Draft is an exciting time of year for football junkies, but it is just the beginning of a long process. Don’t let your draft weekend enthusiasm drown out your better judgement as you prepare your preliminary draft lists for 2008. We have yet to get an inkling who among the draftees will fulfill their promise, which ones will outperform expectations - and how many will go bust in their first season as a pro football players.

2.32: Phillip Merling, DE, Miami Dolphins

Pass rusher had some injury woes but was effective off the edge when healthy. Has the size (6′5″, 272 pounds) that Bill Parcells covets. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.33: Donnie Avery, WR, St. Louis Rams

Quite a surprise. The first WR off the board is a small, uber fast guy considered a mid round pick by most scouts. Hard to believe he can replace Isaac Bruce without a few years of seasoning. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.34: Devin Thomas, WR, Washington Redskins (via Oakland through Atlanta)

The Redskins draft the WR many expected to be first off the WR board. Devin Thomas only had one big year at Michigan but has great size (6′2″, 215 pounds) and can also help as a kickoff returner. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.35: Brandon Flowers, CB, Kansas City Chiefs

If Flowers ran a tenth of a second faster, he would’ve been a mid 1st rounder. Great choice for the rebuilding Chiefs. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.36: Jordy Nelson, WR, Green Bay Packers (via New York Jets)

Another surprising WR selection. Was WR really a need for Green Bay with Driver, Jennings and Jones on the roster? Should help on special teams right away. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.37: Curtis Lofton, LB, Atlanta Falcons

Tackling machine, ideally suited for the inside where he can flow downfield to the ball. Not someone good in space and must be put in the right scheme to succeed. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.38: John Carlson, TE, Seattle Seahawks (via Baltimore)

Mike Holmgren called this a need, and the ‘hawks felt Carlson was a perfect fit for their West Coast offense. Carlson put up big numbers with Brady Quinn under center, as a reminder. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.39: Chilo Rachal, OG, San Francisco 49ers

Rachal gets knocked for not being a great athlete, but he’s technically sound and has a mean streak. As long as he plays inside and isn’t asked to pull and extend to the 2nd level much, he could be a starter immediately. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.40: Tracy Porter, CB, New Orleans Saints

Ironic that the Saints draft a cornerback with the 40th pick; considering there were rumors all week that the 40th pick would be part of a package to acquire Eagles CB Lito Sheppard. Porter is good at tracking the ball but isn’t a sure tackler or much help supporting the run.

2.41: James Hardy, WR, Buffalo Bills

The Bills landed the top corner in the draft last round and, in my opinion, the best receiver in the draft at 2.41. Hardy is a big guy who isn’t afraid of contact. He goes up for the ball and runs good routes; which helps offset a lack of breakaway speed.

2.42: Eddie Royal, WR, Denver Broncos

Royal is one of a handful of receivers who also project as solid returner at the next level. At only 5′8″, 184 pounds, Royal will need to prove he can hold up as a receiver over the course of the season. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.43: Tyrell Johnson, S, Minnesota Vikings (via Carolina through Philadelphia)

Kenny Phillips has the bigger name, but Johnson may have the bigger game. The Vikes continue to bolster their defense with another solid young, physical player. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.44: Matt Forte, RB, Chicago Bears

I’m not crazy about Forte; I don’t believe he’s a special back nor was he the best back left on the board. However, Forte has his supporters and it’s not inconceivable he could earn the starting gig over Cedric Benson sooner rather than later.

2.45: Jordon Dizon, OLB, Detroit Lions

Dizon lacks ideal size and speed; but like many solid NFL linebackers before him, he just makes plays. He’s instinctive and a sound tackler; exactly the kind of guy Rod Marinelli can build around. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.46: Jerome Simpson, WR, Cincinnati Bengals

Further proof that beauty is in the eye of the beholder at WR this year. Simpson wasn’t close to the best WR prospect on the board, but clearly the Bengals felt otherwise. At least, this pick fills a need given the release of Chris Henry and concerns about Chad Johnson’s status.

2.47: Trevor Laws, DT, Philadelphia Eagles (via Minnesota)

The Eagles finally make a pick, and it’s clearly a “best player available” selection. Defensive tackle was hardly a major need, but Laws is a high character, high motor guy who will add depth to an already young tackle rotation.

2.48: Fred Davis, TE, Washington Redskins (via Houston through Atlanta)

The Redskins are committed to getting QB Jason Campbell weapons. First Devin Thomas and now a pass-receiving tight end a few picks later. Davis doesn’t project into an elite tight end, but the Redskins don’t need him to be given the presence of Chris Cooley.

2.49: DeSean Jackson, WR/KR, Philadelphia Eagles

Many Birds fans wouldn’t have complained if Jackson was the pick in the 1st round. So to trade down, grab a 2009 1st rounder as compensation and get DeSean anyway was a coup. He’s tiny (169 pounds) but is blazing fast and unstoppable in the open field. He instantly gives the Eagles the best returner they’ve had in 5 years.

2.50: Calais Campbell, DE, Arizona Cardinals

You don’t find many 6′8″, 280 pound ends; yet Campbell fell into the 2nd round because of an uneven 2007 season. He was a stud in 2006 and, as long as the Cards play him at the right position, should combine with free agent Clark Haggans to improve the Cards pass rush.

2.51: Malcolm Kelly, WR, Washington Redskins

Sure, he’s slower than you would like. But have teams watched this kid play? He’s a polished route runner, has great hands and excellent body control. Very reminiscent of the year Chad Johnson fell because of his slow 40-time; the Skins got a steal.

2.52: Quentin Groves, DE, Jacksonville Jaguars (via Tampa Bay)

The Jags have a stifling defense already, but they aren’t great at putting pressure on opposing QBs. Adding Quentin Groves in the 2nd after taking Derrick Harvey 8th overall goes a long way to changing the Jags pass rush. Groves character issues aside, this was a solid pick.

2.53: Limas Sweed, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers

Some scouts love Sweed, some see him as a bust. At 53rd overall, the Steelers aren’t risking a lot financially to find out if he’s the next Plaxico Burress. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.54: Jason Jones, DE, Tennessee Titans

Jones could replace Antwan Odom right away, but he’s a bit raw to expect that. Eventually the Titans see Jones as a capable 2-way end in their 4-3 defense. His skill set is more suited to defensive tackle, but his size projects him as an end.

2.55: Ray Rice, RB, Baltimore Ravens (via Seattle)

Ray Rice is a local product who was wildly productive as the main ball carrier for Rutgers. While he lacks prototypical size, his low center of gravity and style make him more than capable of being an every down back if needed.

2.56: Brian Brohm, QB, Green Bay Packers (via Cleveland)

Now that’s kind of surprising. Or is it? The Pack took Aaron Rodgers in the 1st when Brett Favre was under center, so why wouldn’t they take the most accurate QB prospect in the 2nd round given Rodgers inexperience? Worst case, he’s a backup for a few years. Best case, he outplays Rodgers and ends up starting in a year or two.

2.57: Chad Henne, QB, Miami Dolphins (via San Diego)

How about that? It looks like Jake Long may be blocking for Chad Henne for a few more years. Another smart pick. He could easily outplay Beck and McCown to win the job; at the very lesaet he’s a big armed, young backup for a good price.

2.58: Dexter Jackson, WR/KR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (via Jacksonville)

This was a reach pick. While Jackson is another potentially dangerous return man; he needs a lot of maturing as a route runner before he can reasonably play WR on a regular basis. Blistering speed (4.33) though and dangerous in the open field.

2.59: Mike Pollak, OG/C, Indianapolis Colts

A classic Colts pick. Their only 1st day pick and it’s a fundamentally sound center that they project as a starting offensive guard for now and possibly a replacement for Jeff Saturday later. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.60: Patrick Lee, DB, Green Bay Packers

A hard worker, Lee may someday start at corner but not for a few seasons. In the meantime, he can be a force on special teams and perhaps play nickel back particularly in run support situations. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.61: Martellus Bennett, TE, Dallas Cowboys

I like this pick more than most. For my money, Bennett was the top TE in this draft. He’s huge, is a good blocker who can become great, and should be a key red zone target given his height and willingness to go up for the ball. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.62: Terrence Wheatley, CB, New England Patriots

The Pats always seem to find value and this was no exception. Wheatley is a legitimate shutdown cover corner who, were it not for myriad injuries in college, would’ve been in the hunt for a top 15 selection. Either way, he’ll help the Pats on defense and special teams.

2.63: Terrell Thomas, CB, New York Giants

Thomas is the 217th USC Trojan to be drafted in the first two rounds (not really, just feels that way). If the Giants view him as a corner, I don’t like this pick. But if they’re going to try to convert him to safety; where his deficiencies can be obfuscated somewhat, the choice makes more sense.

When the Lions traded down two spots, many figured they would go ahead and select RB Rashard Mendenhall but instead they added an offensive tackle, OT Gosder Cherilus. Cherilus has long arms and protected QB Matt Ryan at B.C. the last few seasons. Detroit gave up a ton of sacks last year, but that was as much because of Mike Martz’ offensive schemes as it was deficiencies on the line. Either way, kudos to GM Matt Millen for finally adding someone to the trenches, and passing up a skill position player.

Fantasy Impact: As with any offensive lineman, Cherilus’ impact will only be felt in the context of whether the overall line play improves. The Lions want to run the ball early and often this year; and desperately want to protect QB Jon Kitna after leaving him exposed too much under Martz. Cherilus, if he proves worthy of his draft spot, should do just that.

That didn’t take long…

…just a day after signing Michael “The Burner” Turner to a monster free agent contract, the Falcons released Warrick Dunn.

The 33-year old tailback will have little trouble finding work elsewhere; particularly if he’s willing to accept a role as a backup and situational contributor on a contending team.

Possible Landing Spots?

It’s never too early to handicap where Dunn might land, here are five teams that make imminent sense in our minds:

1. Indianapolis Colts — The Colts don’t have a reliable backup on the roster, and Dunn would be a perfect complement to Joseph Addai. He likely would accept a lesser role on the Colts because they are among a handful of Super Bowl contenders. Given his prior relationship with Tony Dungy when they were in Tampa Bay; this situation almost seems too logical to be true. Update: OK, it seems I may have sold Kenton Keith short. He had a solid 2007 season with 533 yards (4.4 YPC), 13 receptions and 4 total TDs.
2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Jon Gruden is no stranger to veteran contributors and Dunn has strong ties to the Tampa area from his days as a Buc. The Bucs would probably have to make a bigger financial commitment to Dunn than the Colts would, simply because of the less certain playoff outlook.
3. Detroit Lions – Kevin Jones may not be ready for the start of the season, and the Lions have virtually no one ready to step in and play. This is one of the few places Dunn could conceivably earn big playing time; and HC Rod Marinelli is a Dunn fan from their days in Tampa.
4. Dallas Cowboys — The Cowboys never seem to shy away from aging veterans and Jerry Jones could easily view Dunn as a solid backup and complement to Marion Barber; who is slated for a heavier workload in 2008 with the departure of Julius Jones.
5. Tennessee Titans — Pairing Dunn with LenDale White could be an interesting one-two punch. Dunn’s veteran presence, work ethic and his commitment to blocking would serve as great examples for White and fellow youngster Chris Henry. It’s unclear whether the Titans are open to adding someone 11 years into the league; but if they are, Dunn could be a nice two-year answer.

Where do you think Dunn will land? Do you think he’ll have any tangible fantasy value in 2008? Let’s hear your thoughts in our discussion forum.

It wasn’t long ago that defensive tackle was considered one of the pre-eminent positions in the league. GMs and coaches coveted young defensive tackles that showed even a hint of promise. Aging run stuffers seemingly have endless job opportunities. Logically speaking, this is as much about the physical uniqueness of the position as anything. How many 300+ pound, athletic guys exist in the gene pool? Now ask yourself how many of them can also master an NFL playbook, play with a high motor, stay healthy, and make plays game in, game out. Sounds like a rarity? IT IS.

It also wasn’t long ago that NFL trades were a rarity.

Yet, both of those notions are being turned on their head this offseason. A bevy of the league’s defensive tackles have been traded in recent days. And the trades haven’t involved developmental backups, either. The trades read like a laundry list of the league’s top tackles, young and old.

Marcus Stroud traded to the Bills for 3rd and 5th round picks in 2008

Stroud (6′6″, 310 pounds, 29 years old) requested a trade from the Jaguars and was granted his request when the Bills came forward. From 2003-2005, Stroud was arguably the most dominant run-stuffer in the league; pairing with John Henderson to form a daunting interior. But after three consecutive Pro Bowls, Stroud hurt his ankle in 2006 and had microfracture surgery. He missed time rehabbing in 2006 and the ankle again impacted his play in 2007. On top of that, Stroud was suspended four games for violating the league’s substance abuse program. Assuming Stroud is healthy, he gives the Bills a major upgrade in place of the recently released Larry Tripplett. He’s only 29 years old and has three years remaining on his deal; so the Bills have relatively little risk in making this move.

Kris Jenkins traded to the Jets for 3rd and 5th round picks in 2008

It wasn’t long ago that Jenkins (6′4″, 335 pounds, 28 years old) was considered THE elite young tackle in the league. He notched All Pro nods in his 2nd and 3rd years, combining solid run-stopping technique with an intense inside pass rush (12 sacks in 2002-2003). Jenkins then suffered setbacks in 2004 (shoulder) and 2005 (ACL) which robbed him of his status as an elite player. To his credit, Jenkins rebounded in 2006 and earned his 3rd Pro Bowl nod; and played all 16 games in 2007, as well. Unlike Stroud, Jenkins will be asked to play a different position. The Jets use a 3-4 defensive front and Jenkins will be the team’s new nose tackle. It will be an adjustment but Jenkins has a wide body and low center of gravity, so the adjustment shouldn’t be problematic. For his troubles, the Jets signed him to a new 5-year, $35mm extension.

Shaun Rogers traded to the Browns for CB Leigh Bodden and a 3rd round pick in 2008

Rogers is a physical marvel (6′4″, 340 pounds, 28 years old) with the athleticism of a defensive end but the size of a traditional run stuffer. Perhaps no better indication of his athleticism than the fact he’s blocked 11 (yes, 11!) kicks in his career. In seven seasons in Detroit, he started nearly every game and finished last season with a career high 7 sacks. He signed a six-year extension after the 2004 season and was, at the time, viewed as one of the best young lineman in the NFL. He added Pro Bowl nods to his resume in the following two seasons. However, Rogers injured 2006 season got him off on the wrong foot with new head coach Rod Marinelli, and their relationship never appeared to recover despite a solid 2007 campaign. Rogers will significantly enhance the Browns front line; and the Browns won’t have to immediately commit to a new contract for him.

Corey Williams traded to the Browns for a 2nd round pick in 2008

Williams (6′4″, 313 pounds, 27 years old) emerged this season in Green Bay as a 4-3 tackle capable of periodic dominance. Despite being part of a rotation in Green Bay, Williams put up 14 sacks over the last two years in addition to 69 tackles. The Packers franchised Williams and seemed ready to commit to him long-term. But shortly after the start of free agency, the Packers shipped Williams to the Browns for a 2nd round pick. The Browns will use Williams as a defensive end in the 3-4 scheme and have signed him to a new 6-year, $38mm deal that guarantees him $14mm.

So is this trade frenzy indicative of a new NFL paradigm or simply a statistical quirk of this offseason? It seems that NFL teams are no longer beholden keeping high priced players around hoping they will learn to fit into the system and/or get over their unhappiness at the situation. Will all of these deals work out for the acquiring teams? Certainly not. But in early March when every deal has an optimistic light, it certainly seems like the acquiring teams landed key contributors that would’ve been impossible to find through the draft or free agency.

Chicago Bears

WR Bernard Berrian

The Bears probably aren’t going to use their tags; but there’s an outside chance the team tags WR Bernard Berrian. If not with the franchise tag, than possibly the transition tag. Berrian has developed into the team’s best receiver and, given his size and age, would be highly coveted if the Bears let him get into the open market.

Note: Some of you have asked why I didn’t include LB Lance Briggs as an option. Although Briggs is certainly worthy of the designation, the Bears agreed not to tag him this season after he agreed to sign his one-year tender last offseason.

Detroit Lions

The Lions are unlikely to use their tag designations this offseason.

Green Bay Packers

DT Corey Williams

Corey Williams is a long shot to be tagged, but he plays a coveted position and has proven himself a disruptive interior pass rusher (7 sacks in consecutive seasons). If the Packers don’t tag him, they stand an excellent chance of losing his services to a team willing to pay him premium money with an eye toward making him a full-time starter.

xxxx

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Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings are unlikely to use their designations this offseason; none of their potential free agents would justify the financial commitment.

You are welcome to consider the following as analysis or entertainment, as you see fit.

WEEK 16 of the 2O06 SEASON
Seven kickers score in double digits in week 16 last year:
10 Matt Bryant in TB 22-7 victory at Cle
11 David Akers in Phi 23-7 victory at Dal
12 Rob Bironas in Ten 30-29 victory at Buf
12 John Carney in NO 30-7 victory at NYG
14 Neil Rackers in Ari 26-20 victory at SF
14 Robbie Gould in Chi 26-20 victory at Det
17 Rian Lindell in Buf 29-20 loss against Ten

6 of 7 of those games featured teams that ended up with similar records (Chi-Det being the exception)
6 of 7 of those kickers played for the visiting team (Lindell being the exception)
6 of 7 of those kickers played for the team that won (Lindell being the exception)

WEEK 16 of the 2007 SEASON
Who are the visiting kickers this week in matchups of teams with similar records?
Lawrence Tynes: 9-5 NYG at 7-7 Buf
David Akers: 6-8 Phi at 7-7 NO
John Carney: 4-10 KC at 6-8 Det
Shaun Suisham: 7-7 Was at 8-6 Min

Just the other day there were widespread reports that Kevin Jones was going to start the season on the PUP list (where he has resided all preseason). I explained to you why I thought that meant T.J. Duckett was an intriguing late round sleeper while Tatum Bell really wasn’t a compelling value given his ADP.

But no sooner did we resign ourselves to Jones’ being out for a significant period of time did today’s news come that the Lions have REMOVED KJ from the PUP list.

According to the Detroit Free Press, “Jones will begin practicing immediately” and will be evaluated week-to-week. Neither Jones nor HC Rod Marinelli have ruled out his playing in Week One.

What this means for fantasy owners:

• Tatum Bell goes from being, at best, fairly value in the 4th/5th round (his current ADP) to being a very risky proposition
• Kevin Jones is now absolutely worth rostering late in your draft; let’s hope other people in your league aren’t paying as close attention
• T.J. Duckett remains a deep, deep sleeper because of his short-yardage ability

In a move we’ve been expecting for some time, the Lions will keep Kevin Jones on the Physically Unable to Perform (PUP) list; which will keep him out of at least the first 5 games (six weeks includes the Lions bye) of the regular season. Jones simply hasn’t been able to recover from his Lisfranc injury. According to Tom Kowalski, the doctors believe Jones’ is healing and on track for a full recovery; but it makes no sense to rush him back.

If he comes back by midseason; Jones would be an interesting waiver wire pickup. But unless you’re in deep leagues (i.e., 20+ rounds), it is hard to justify spending a roster spot on him now, knowing that you won’t have him for a major part of the fantasy regular season (which usually runs 13- to 14-weeks).

So the question becomes, what should fantasy owners do about the Lions’ backup RBs. For the record, here are the RBs currently on the Lions’ depth chart (note: 75-man roster):

1. Tatum Bell
2. T.J. Duckett
3. Avieon Cason
4. Brian Calhoun
5. Anthony Sherrell
6. Kevin Jones

For the sake of fantasy redrafts, let’s agree that only Bell and Duckett are even worth discussing currently. Cason and Calhoun are battling for a roster spot, but neither is likely to see the field much save for occasional 3rd-down duties and, of course, special teams.

Tatum Bell

YR	TM	G	RSH	YD	Y/R	TD	TRG	REC	YD	Y/R	TD	FPT	RANK	VBD
2004	DEN	14	75	396	5.3	3	7	5	80	16.0	0	66	48	0
2005	DEN	15	173	921	5.3	8	28	18	104	5.8	0	151	22	7
2006	DEN	13	233	1025	4.4	2	31	24	115	4.8	0	126	31	0
CAREER	TOT	42	481	2342	4.9	13	66	47	299	6.4	0	343	7

Bell was traded to Detroit (along with George Foster) for CB Dre Bly. While the Broncos upgraded by bringing in Travis Henry, Bell isn’t someone completely ill equipped to produce if given the opportunity. He’s never proven himself durable (or well rounded) enough to carry a full workload, but he’s had moments of solid play.

As of today, Tatum Bell has an ADP of 72nd overall (32nd RB); which puts him in the 6th-7th round mix in 10- and 12-team drafts.

That’s certainly not a big price to pay for a potential starting tailback, but there are some risk factors you need to consider:

• OC Mike Martz is pass happy; it’s one thing to call running plays when Marshall Faulk is in his prime, it’s entirely another when it’s Tatum Bell
• Tatum Bell fumbles; Bell has 8 fumbles in the last two season (2 as a receiver)
• Bell is a terrible goal-line back; Bell has only 3 rushing TDs in 17 goal-line rushing attempts
• Denver’s system inflates RB yards-per rush; Broncos RBs have averaged almost a full yard per carry less when they play for another team which suggests Bell could fall well short of his career 4.9 yards per rush

Bottom Line: Bell probably has the Detroit starting job locked up for at least the first six weeks, and it’s hard to argue against drafting an NFL starting RB in the 6th or 7th round. That said, there are plenty of reasons to think he could be one of the LEAST effective starters on any given Sunday.

T.J. Duckett

YR	TM	G	RSH	YD	Y/R	TD	TRG	REC	YD	Y/R	TD	FPT	RANK	VBD
2002	ATL	12	130	507	3.9	4	11	9	61	6.8	0	81	42	0
2003	ATL	16	197	779	4.0	11	13	11	94	8.5	0	153	21	11
2004	ATL	13	104	509	4.9	8	3	3	15	5.0	0	100	36	0
2005	ATL	14	121	380	3.1	8	7	6	63	10.5	0	92	37	0
2006	WAS	11	38	132	3.5	2	2	2	16	8.0	0	27	79	0
CAREER	TOT	66	590	2307	3.9	33	36	31	249	8.0	0	453	11

Duckett spent four years in Atlanta where he was sometimes the Thunder to Warrick Dunn’s lightning. But he could never quite break out of the backup role and moved onto Washington last year; where he was an outright bust. As you can see from the games played, Duckett has had his fair share of injuries; and his size/conditioning have often been called into question. The only thing that should scream out at you, though, is his TD totals.

Duckett has 33 rushing touchdowns in five seasons, and had a stretch in Atlanta where he averaged 9 TDs/season (2003-2005). This gets at the one facet of the game where Duckett has proven himself time and again; the GOAL LINE.

• 24 of Duckett’s 33 (72%) career rushing TDs were at the goal-line (5 yards or less)
• Duckett has converted better than 50% of his career goal-line attempts
• Duckett’s goal-line conversion rate ranks 7th-best among qualified RBs since 2002

Goal Line TD Conversion Rate (2002-2006)

Rank	First	Last	Rushes	TDs	Conv%
1	Priest	Holmes	75	45	60.0%
2	Shaun	Alexander	98	56	57.1%
3	Larry	Johnson	56	30	53.6%
4	LaDainian	Tomlinson	107	57	53.3%
5	Kevan	Barlow	32	17	53.1%
6	Stacey	Mack	21	11	52.4%
7	T.J.	Duckett	47	24	51.1%
8	Jerome	Bettis	62	31	50.0%
9	Ahman	Green	40	20	50.0%
10	Stephen	Davis	51	24	47.1%
11	Brandon	Jacobs	30	14	46.7%
12	Corey	Dillon	73	34	46.6%
13	Thomas	Jones	43	20	46.5%
14	Willie	Parker	22	10	45.5%
15	Emmitt	Smith	22	10	45.5%
16	Marshall	Faulk	38	17	44.7%
17	Travis	Henry	50	22	44.0%
18	Eddie	George	41	18	43.9%
19	Moe	Williams	39	17	43.6%
20	Steven	Jackson	37	16	43.2%
21	Rudi	Johnson	56	24	42.9%
22	Domanick	Williams	35	15	42.9%
23	Tiki	Barber	56	23	41.1%
24	Jamal	Lewis	64	26	40.6%
25	Zack	Crockett	44	17	38.6%

As of today, T.J. Duckett has an ADP of 196th overall (RB58); which puts him as a very late round pick in 10- and 12-team drafts; and a waiver wire option in smaller size leagues.

Bottom Line: Duckett is the ultimate low-risk, late round flier. If you accept that a portion of your draft day roster is going to be churned over during the season anyway, I’m always an advocate of going for long shot, high upside picks at the tail end of my draft. While Duckett has given no indication he will contend for a big workload in Kevin Jones’ absence, he is one of the best goal-line backs in the league while Bell is one of the worst. If you’re in a TD-heavy league or have rosters that go 20+ players; I think Duckett is a much savvier pickup than Tatum Bell would be in the 6th or 7th round.

The NFL Season is just two weeks away, and Fantasy Football drafts are happening all over the country. My eyes are about to pop out of my head from watching 40+ NFL preseason games either in entirety, in fast forward (stopping to catch several key plays) or even on the NFL.com highlight reel. My two DVRs are jam-packed still, but time is a-wastin’.

With that in mind, I have gone through my offensive player rankings for Footballguys for perhaps the last time before Week 1. For obvious reasons I cannot provide my entire rankings list here (subscriber only content), but I can tell you about a few tweaks that I made. There are several changes across the board, mostly minor upticks and downgrades, but I thought it would help some to know about the major moves I made and why:

Running backs:

Take a look here for my overall RB redraft rankings as well as several other Footballguys staff’s opinions.

The running back position is probably the most critical in all of Fantasy Football. Everyone has to pay attention to it, and while it is not impossible to win without good RBs, you are certainly swimming upstream if you don’t have at least a couple.

Based on what I have seen, read and heard over the past few weeks, I have not made many moves in the Top 30 RBs, as most of my expectations have been met for many of the backs. I am keeping an eye on Ahman Green and Lamont Jordan, as I think there is still room for major upside for what price you would have to pay to acquire either of their services.

Looking a little deeper I moved Leon Washington and Adrian Peterson (Chicago) more firmly into the RB40-50 range. Washington showed explosiveness against the Giants last week, breaking a catch and running away from the Big Blue defense for a touchdown to start the game for the Jets. Given his playmaking abilities and Thomas Jones’ injury concerns, I like Washington quite a bit. Peterson (version 1.0) looked good behind the Bears’ offensive line, and I have been rather unimpressed with Cedric Benson so far. Even Garrett Wolfe has looked good, but that was against much lesser talent. Grabbing Peterson is a must if you get Benson, but even if you don’t have the starter for Chicago, Peterson represents a great value later in many drafts.

So who’s sliding down the board? Kevin Jones is a no-brainer to avoid this season. With everyone expecting him to be on the “PUP” list (Physically Unable to Perform) for Weeks 1-6, I just don’t hold much hope for him to contribute. In his absence Tatum Bell and T.J. Duckett will be serviceable, but I don’t know if either is a good fantasy option.

Lastly I’ll mention a favorite sleeper, and that is Lorenzo Booker of the Miami Dolphins. I love the talent and the character of Booker, but he just hasn’t shown much so far in preseason. Yes, he was given time off as he just became a father, but with the uncertainty of how he will perform for Miami and also the emergence of Jesse Chatman as the probable #2 option behind Ronnie Brown I have to move Booker down the charts.

Next up…. Wide Receivers.

Continuing on…I thought it might be helpful to give you a few quick hitting comments on which players are rising and falling in MY (i.e., different than Dodds’) projections this preseason.

Up next, the NFC North:

RISING

• Kelly Holcomb, MIN (Rank: QB37) — From Eagles 4th stringer to Vikings backup
• J.T. O’Sullivan, DET (Rank: QB45) — Appears to have edge in DET QB2 battle
• Tatum Bell, DET (Rank: RB34) — In line to start in Detroit
• T.J. Duckett, DET (Rank: RB59) — In great shape + Short yardage role
• Calvin Johnson, DET (Rank: WR25) — The real deal + Martz offense
• Troy Williamson, MIN (Rank: WR47) — Still raw, but eyesight improved and team’s only deep threat
• James Jones, GB (Rank: WR60) — Best receiver in Packers camp + Coaches willing to play rookies
• Bobby Wade, MIN (Rank: WR61) — Listed as a starter all preseason
• Devin Hester, CHI (Rank: WR93) — Marginal player, but I had him ranked with 0 FPTs earlier this preseason
• Donald Lee, GB (Rank: TE31) — Starting ahead of Bubba Franks
• Mason Crosby, GB (Rank: PK28) — My pick to win the starting PK job

FALLING

• Brooks Bollinger, MIN (Rank: Unranked) — Was supposed to compete for starting nod, now QB3
• Dan Orlovsky, DET (Rank: Unranked) — J.T. O’Sullivan appears to be in lead for QB2 role
• Kevin Jones, DET (Rank: RB44) — Injured all preseason, could go on PUP list
• Greg Jennings, GB (Rank: WR35) — MIA in preseason, James Jones playing lights out
• Mike Furrey, DET (Rank: WR51) — Johnson could start by Week One
• Mark Bradley, CHI (Rank: WR119) — Regular role in the offense seems in question
• Billy McMullen, MIN (Rank: WR130) — May not make Vikings roster
• Bubba Franks, GB (Rank: TE34) — Running with the 2nd team
• Dave Rayner, GB (Rank: Unranked) — My pick to lose the starting PK job

Let’s hear your thoughts…where do you agree? Where do you disagree and why?

A lot of Joey Harrington apologists are creeping out of the woodwork lately, no doubt because a) he can be had cheap in drafts and b) he seems like a good guy (the Anti-Vick) if you will. While that’s all quite true, I still think that optimism is, in some cases, backed up by erroneous data.

Over the last few days, several people have expressed to me the notion that we’ve never seen what Joey Harrington could be “behind a good offensive line.” OK, but in order for that statement to hold any water, we need to answer the following questions:

1. Is the 2007 Atlanta Falcons line good?
2. Is it demonstrably better than Harrington’s other offensive lines?

Question 1: Is the 2007 Atlanta Falcons line good?

According to our own Chris Smith, who covers offensive lines extensively for Footballguys, the Falcons line ranks 25th out of 32 teams. He breaks it down further by run-blocking (18th) and pass-blocking (25th). This is his evaluation of the constituent parts:

Run blocking rank: 18th
Pass blocking rank: 25th
Depth: C
Cohesion: B
Experience: B+

Projected Starters

LT Wayne Gandy: rank - 23rd
LG Justin Blaylock [r]: rank - 21st
C Todd McClure: rank - 21st
RG Kynan Forney: rank - 18th
RT Todd Weiner: rank - 14th

Key Backups: Tyson Clabo P.J. Alexander, Ben Wilkerson, Frank Omiyale

While you may or may not agree with Chris’ evaluations, I think the following data points are worth considering:

• The Falcons allowed 47 sacks last year, 7th worst in the league
• That was with Michael “1,000-yard rusher” Vick under center
• The only change in personnel is the addition of a ROOKIE left guard
• HC Bobby Petrino is changing from a zone-blocking to an in-line blocking scheme

Question 2: Is it demonstrably better than Harrington’s other offensive lines?

To hear people talk, it’s as though Joey Harrington was under constant fire as a young starter in Detroit. Let’s be clear, Harrington’s struggles were NOT because he was getting sacked left and right. Harrington is NOT David Carr, folks. Revisionist history has a way of obfuscating the truth:

• 2002 Detroit Lions — 20 sacks allowed (BEST in the NFL)
• 2003 Detroit Lions — 11 sacks allowed (BEST in the NFL)
• 2004 Detroit Lions — 37 sacks allowed (16th in the NFL)
• 2005 Detroit Lions — 31 sacks allowed (10th in the NFL)

Joey Harrington had PLENTY of pass protection in Detroit; he was sacked fewer times than any NFL starter in his first two seasons and was well below the league norm in subsequent years. The Falcons line allowed 10 more sacks last year than Harrington’s WORST line in Detroit, and that was with Michael Vick. How many sacks would the Falcons have allowed last year with a drop back passer? We are likely to find out this season.

Taking a look at the the latest ADP data, it seems that fantasy owners are paying too much attention to where the rookie WR crop were drafted in April versus how their situations have evolved over the four months since. Let’s look at the top-12 rookie receivers, according to the most recent ADP data:

• Calvin Johnson — WR20 (54th overall)
• Anthony Gonzalez — WR53 (160th overall)
• Dwayne Jarrett — WR56 (164th overall)
• Dwayne Bowe — WR59 (175th overall)
• Ted Ginn Jr. — WR62 (187th overall)
• Robert Meachem — WR63 (195th overall)
• Craig Davis — WR77 (246th overall)
• Jason Hill — WR82 (256th overall)
• James Jones — WR83 (257th overall)
• Steve Smith — WR87 (269th overall)
• Sidney Rice — WR88 (270th overall)
• Jacoby Jones — WR102 (311th overall)

In my opinion, some of these draft positions are WAY out of whack with the reality of their 2007 opportunities.

OVERVALUED ROOKIES

• Anthony Gonzalez, IND — He’s a rookie, he’s not guaranteed the #3 spot (Aaron Moorehead has been as good in camp, and has the experience factor), and save for Manning’s 49-TD season, the WR3 slot in Indy hasn’t warranted a pick that high based on year-end numbers
• Dwayne Jarrett, CAR – Yes, he may be the future WR2 in Carolina, but he’s not the present. Both Drew Carter and Keary Colbert have been running ahead of him all preseason
• Jason Hill, SF — It’s hard to call someone being drafted 256th overall overvalued. But Hill is going ahead of at least 10 wideouts I think will handily outperform him this year. Hill hasn’t gotten any run in San Francisco this preseason, and looks to start the season no better than WR4 (at best)
• Robert Meachem, NO — Meachem may have a bright future in New Orleans, but as our Sigmund Bloom said this week on The Audible, this is looking more and more like a “red shirt” year for the young speedster out of Tennessee. Meachem was a camp holdout and then showed up out of shape. He hasn’t sniffed the first team during the preseason and is running solidly behind Marques Colston, Devery Henderson, Terrence Copper, David Patten and possibly, Lance Moore.
• Ted Ginn Jr., MIA — Ginn is an athlete, but he’s not a polished receiver yet. Unless your team gets points for special teams contributions, Ginn is going far too high given the options still available.

FAIRLY VALUED ROOKIES

• Calvin Johnson, DET – Calvin Johnson is currently ranked 23rd in our consensus WR rankings, so his ADP of WR20 isn’t too out of whack. While it’s never a sure bet to bet on a rookie to deliver WR20 numbers, Johnson is a once-in-a-generation talent and plays for one of the league’s most pass happy offensive coordinators.
• Dwayne Bowe, KC – The Chiefs aren’t going to throw a lot based on Herm Edwards’ coaching history; and Brodie Croyle hasn’t instilled much confidence. However, the Chiefs are more desperate for a young playmaker at wideout than any team in the NFL. Eddie Kennison is solid but he’s getting old and is really better suited as a WR2. And Samie Parker (Mr. Inconsistent) is all that stands in Bowe’s way.
• Sidney Rice, MIN — Rice is an enigma. He’s super skinny and playing in arguably the most jumbled WR corps in the league, but he could easily emerge as a starter sometime this season. The issue, however, is that he could just as easily end up the 4th or 5th wideout. Add to that the uncertainty of QB Tarvaris Jackson and Rice is probably best left as a late round flier or waiver wire pickup

UNDERVALUED ROOKIES

• Craig Davis, SD — Eric Parker is out for a good chunk of the season and rookie Davis has been running with the starting unit opposite Vincent Jackson. The Chargers have a Pro Bowl QB in Philip Rivers and while the WR2 won’t get a ton of targets because of Tomlinson and Gates also getting looks, any NFL starting wideout deserves a higher ADP than Davis’
• James Jones, GB – As we discussed yesterday, Jones has been a beast this preseason and should be the Packers WR3 at worst. But with the injury to Donald Driver, Jones could start the season opposite Greg Jennings. With the Packers throwing the ball 500+ times, and the team’s willingness to start rookies (Jennings started last year), Jones should be drafted in 12-team leagues but his ADP suggests he’s not been
• Steve Smith, NYG — Smith is going to start the season as the Giants WR3, but given Burress’ and Toomer’s injury situations, and Toomer’s advancing age, he stands a good chance of becoming a starter at some point this year. Smith has been one of the most impressive, polished rookie receivers throughout training camp and the preseason. He should have a better season than his USC counterpart
• Jacoby Jones, HOU — Jones is running neck and neck with Kevin Walter for the Texans WR2 position. The Texans have no reason to sit a talent like Jones if he’s as good, if not better than Walter at this juncture. While the Texans offense has its question marks, a 16-game NFL starter (potentially) deserves to be drafted in deeper leagues, yet Jacoby is going outside the top 300!

LISTEN NOW!
In This Episode: Cecil Lammey Sigmund Bloom, and Jeff Tefertiller review the QBs of the NFC North in the Preseason Watch List Edition of The Audible. Topics Include: can Rex Grossman keep making progress, how good can Jon Kitna be, is this the final year for Brett Favre, what will become of Aaron Rodgers, can Tarvaris Jackson be a solid starter for the Vikings, plus more!

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LISTEN NOW!
In This Episode: Cecil Lammey, Sigmund Bloom, and Anthony Borbely review the RBs of the NFC North in the Preseason Watch List Edition of The Audible. Topics Include: will Cedric Benson finally rise to the occasion, does Garrett Wolfe really have a shot in the NFL, Kevin Jones injury status, can Tatum Bell produce in Detroit, Vernand Morency v Brandon Jackson, the great Adrian Peterson, plus more!

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LISTEN NOW!
In This Episode: Cecil Lammey, Sigmund Bloom, and Anthony Borbely review the WRs of the NFC North in the Preseason Watch List Edition of The Audible. Topics Include: Bernard Berrian emerging in Chicago, can Devin Hester become a force at WR, the great Calvin Johnson, Greg Jennings, Bobby Wade as the #1 with the Vikings, plus more!

As Tom Kowalski points out on Mlive.com, Drew Stanton’s knee injury (scheduled for arthroscopic knee surgery to clean up debris/scar tissue - out 2-4 weeks) couldn’t come at a worse time for his professional development (and from the Lions’