2.32: Phillip Merling, DE, Miami Dolphins

Pass rusher had some injury woes but was effective off the edge when healthy. Has the size (6′5″, 272 pounds) that Bill Parcells covets. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.33: Donnie Avery, WR, St. Louis Rams

Quite a surprise. The first WR off the board is a small, uber fast guy considered a mid round pick by most scouts. Hard to believe he can replace Isaac Bruce without a few years of seasoning. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.34: Devin Thomas, WR, Washington Redskins (via Oakland through Atlanta)

The Redskins draft the WR many expected to be first off the WR board. Devin Thomas only had one big year at Michigan but has great size (6′2″, 215 pounds) and can also help as a kickoff returner. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.35: Brandon Flowers, CB, Kansas City Chiefs

If Flowers ran a tenth of a second faster, he would’ve been a mid 1st rounder. Great choice for the rebuilding Chiefs. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.36: Jordy Nelson, WR, Green Bay Packers (via New York Jets)

Another surprising WR selection. Was WR really a need for Green Bay with Driver, Jennings and Jones on the roster? Should help on special teams right away. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.37: Curtis Lofton, LB, Atlanta Falcons

Tackling machine, ideally suited for the inside where he can flow downfield to the ball. Not someone good in space and must be put in the right scheme to succeed. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.38: John Carlson, TE, Seattle Seahawks (via Baltimore)

Mike Holmgren called this a need, and the ‘hawks felt Carlson was a perfect fit for their West Coast offense. Carlson put up big numbers with Brady Quinn under center, as a reminder. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.39: Chilo Rachal, OG, San Francisco 49ers

Rachal gets knocked for not being a great athlete, but he’s technically sound and has a mean streak. As long as he plays inside and isn’t asked to pull and extend to the 2nd level much, he could be a starter immediately. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.40: Tracy Porter, CB, New Orleans Saints

Ironic that the Saints draft a cornerback with the 40th pick; considering there were rumors all week that the 40th pick would be part of a package to acquire Eagles CB Lito Sheppard. Porter is good at tracking the ball but isn’t a sure tackler or much help supporting the run.

2.41: James Hardy, WR, Buffalo Bills

The Bills landed the top corner in the draft last round and, in my opinion, the best receiver in the draft at 2.41. Hardy is a big guy who isn’t afraid of contact. He goes up for the ball and runs good routes; which helps offset a lack of breakaway speed.

2.42: Eddie Royal, WR, Denver Broncos

Royal is one of a handful of receivers who also project as solid returner at the next level. At only 5′8″, 184 pounds, Royal will need to prove he can hold up as a receiver over the course of the season. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.43: Tyrell Johnson, S, Minnesota Vikings (via Carolina through Philadelphia)

Kenny Phillips has the bigger name, but Johnson may have the bigger game. The Vikes continue to bolster their defense with another solid young, physical player. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.44: Matt Forte, RB, Chicago Bears

I’m not crazy about Forte; I don’t believe he’s a special back nor was he the best back left on the board. However, Forte has his supporters and it’s not inconceivable he could earn the starting gig over Cedric Benson sooner rather than later.

2.45: Jordon Dizon, OLB, Detroit Lions

Dizon lacks ideal size and speed; but like many solid NFL linebackers before him, he just makes plays. He’s instinctive and a sound tackler; exactly the kind of guy Rod Marinelli can build around. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.46: Jerome Simpson, WR, Cincinnati Bengals

Further proof that beauty is in the eye of the beholder at WR this year. Simpson wasn’t close to the best WR prospect on the board, but clearly the Bengals felt otherwise. At least, this pick fills a need given the release of Chris Henry and concerns about Chad Johnson’s status.

2.47: Trevor Laws, DT, Philadelphia Eagles (via Minnesota)

The Eagles finally make a pick, and it’s clearly a “best player available” selection. Defensive tackle was hardly a major need, but Laws is a high character, high motor guy who will add depth to an already young tackle rotation.

2.48: Fred Davis, TE, Washington Redskins (via Houston through Atlanta)

The Redskins are committed to getting QB Jason Campbell weapons. First Devin Thomas and now a pass-receiving tight end a few picks later. Davis doesn’t project into an elite tight end, but the Redskins don’t need him to be given the presence of Chris Cooley.

2.49: DeSean Jackson, WR/KR, Philadelphia Eagles

Many Birds fans wouldn’t have complained if Jackson was the pick in the 1st round. So to trade down, grab a 2009 1st rounder as compensation and get DeSean anyway was a coup. He’s tiny (169 pounds) but is blazing fast and unstoppable in the open field. He instantly gives the Eagles the best returner they’ve had in 5 years.

2.50: Calais Campbell, DE, Arizona Cardinals

You don’t find many 6′8″, 280 pound ends; yet Campbell fell into the 2nd round because of an uneven 2007 season. He was a stud in 2006 and, as long as the Cards play him at the right position, should combine with free agent Clark Haggans to improve the Cards pass rush.

2.51: Malcolm Kelly, WR, Washington Redskins

Sure, he’s slower than you would like. But have teams watched this kid play? He’s a polished route runner, has great hands and excellent body control. Very reminiscent of the year Chad Johnson fell because of his slow 40-time; the Skins got a steal.

2.52: Quentin Groves, DE, Jacksonville Jaguars (via Tampa Bay)

The Jags have a stifling defense already, but they aren’t great at putting pressure on opposing QBs. Adding Quentin Groves in the 2nd after taking Derrick Harvey 8th overall goes a long way to changing the Jags pass rush. Groves character issues aside, this was a solid pick.

2.53: Limas Sweed, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers

Some scouts love Sweed, some see him as a bust. At 53rd overall, the Steelers aren’t risking a lot financially to find out if he’s the next Plaxico Burress. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.54: Jason Jones, DE, Tennessee Titans

Jones could replace Antwan Odom right away, but he’s a bit raw to expect that. Eventually the Titans see Jones as a capable 2-way end in their 4-3 defense. His skill set is more suited to defensive tackle, but his size projects him as an end.

2.55: Ray Rice, RB, Baltimore Ravens (via Seattle)

Ray Rice is a local product who was wildly productive as the main ball carrier for Rutgers. While he lacks prototypical size, his low center of gravity and style make him more than capable of being an every down back if needed.

2.56: Brian Brohm, QB, Green Bay Packers (via Cleveland)

Now that’s kind of surprising. Or is it? The Pack took Aaron Rodgers in the 1st when Brett Favre was under center, so why wouldn’t they take the most accurate QB prospect in the 2nd round given Rodgers inexperience? Worst case, he’s a backup for a few years. Best case, he outplays Rodgers and ends up starting in a year or two.

2.57: Chad Henne, QB, Miami Dolphins (via San Diego)

How about that? It looks like Jake Long may be blocking for Chad Henne for a few more years. Another smart pick. He could easily outplay Beck and McCown to win the job; at the very lesaet he’s a big armed, young backup for a good price.

2.58: Dexter Jackson, WR/KR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (via Jacksonville)

This was a reach pick. While Jackson is another potentially dangerous return man; he needs a lot of maturing as a route runner before he can reasonably play WR on a regular basis. Blistering speed (4.33) though and dangerous in the open field.

2.59: Mike Pollak, OG/C, Indianapolis Colts

A classic Colts pick. Their only 1st day pick and it’s a fundamentally sound center that they project as a starting offensive guard for now and possibly a replacement for Jeff Saturday later. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.60: Patrick Lee, DB, Green Bay Packers

A hard worker, Lee may someday start at corner but not for a few seasons. In the meantime, he can be a force on special teams and perhaps play nickel back particularly in run support situations. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.61: Martellus Bennett, TE, Dallas Cowboys

I like this pick more than most. For my money, Bennett was the top TE in this draft. He’s huge, is a good blocker who can become great, and should be a key red zone target given his height and willingness to go up for the ball. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.62: Terrence Wheatley, CB, New England Patriots

The Pats always seem to find value and this was no exception. Wheatley is a legitimate shutdown cover corner who, were it not for myriad injuries in college, would’ve been in the hunt for a top 15 selection. Either way, he’ll help the Pats on defense and special teams.

2.63: Terrell Thomas, CB, New York Giants

Thomas is the 217th USC Trojan to be drafted in the first two rounds (not really, just feels that way). If the Giants view him as a corner, I don’t like this pick. But if they’re going to try to convert him to safety; where his deficiencies can be obfuscated somewhat, the choice makes more sense.

What is it with the Jets and 1st round tight ends? Inexplicably, the Jets gave up a boatload to move back into the 1st round and select TE Dustin Keller, the tight end from Purdue. Sure, Keller was among the top rated TEs on many draft boards, but this was considered a weak draft for the position and no one would’ve blinked twice if Keller went in the 3rd round. If the Jets view him as an H-back type, he could prove worthy but as a conventional tight end, he shows neither the blocking ability or the strength to outmuscle defenders in space to warrant a 1st round pick.

Fantasy Impact: Tough to say. Chris Baker is no fantasy stud and the Jets could use weapons. If Keller is used as an H-back and put into receiving routes quite a bit, he could be a surprise. But rookie tight ends are rarely worth the trouble.

DE/LB Vernon Gholston was the last remaining player in the green room at Radio City Music Hall; but he didn’t have to wait long. The home town New York Jets drafted the uber athletic pass rusher with the 6th overall pick; and will likely pair him alongside free agent Calvin Pace in an effort to dramatially reshape the team’s 3-4 pass rush.

Fantasy Impact: Assuming Gholston gets into camp and earns a starting job early; he could be a worthwhile fantasy spot in IDP leagues. Regarding the Jets team defense, Gholston has to be viewed in combination with the Jets other moves this offseason. Clearly the team hopes to completely turn around last year’s disappointing performance; and Gholston will be a big (and expensive) part of that.

It wasn’t long ago that defensive tackle was considered one of the pre-eminent positions in the league. GMs and coaches coveted young defensive tackles that showed even a hint of promise. Aging run stuffers seemingly have endless job opportunities. Logically speaking, this is as much about the physical uniqueness of the position as anything. How many 300+ pound, athletic guys exist in the gene pool? Now ask yourself how many of them can also master an NFL playbook, play with a high motor, stay healthy, and make plays game in, game out. Sounds like a rarity? IT IS.

It also wasn’t long ago that NFL trades were a rarity.

Yet, both of those notions are being turned on their head this offseason. A bevy of the league’s defensive tackles have been traded in recent days. And the trades haven’t involved developmental backups, either. The trades read like a laundry list of the league’s top tackles, young and old.

Marcus Stroud traded to the Bills for 3rd and 5th round picks in 2008

Stroud (6′6″, 310 pounds, 29 years old) requested a trade from the Jaguars and was granted his request when the Bills came forward. From 2003-2005, Stroud was arguably the most dominant run-stuffer in the league; pairing with John Henderson to form a daunting interior. But after three consecutive Pro Bowls, Stroud hurt his ankle in 2006 and had microfracture surgery. He missed time rehabbing in 2006 and the ankle again impacted his play in 2007. On top of that, Stroud was suspended four games for violating the league’s substance abuse program. Assuming Stroud is healthy, he gives the Bills a major upgrade in place of the recently released Larry Tripplett. He’s only 29 years old and has three years remaining on his deal; so the Bills have relatively little risk in making this move.

Kris Jenkins traded to the Jets for 3rd and 5th round picks in 2008

It wasn’t long ago that Jenkins (6′4″, 335 pounds, 28 years old) was considered THE elite young tackle in the league. He notched All Pro nods in his 2nd and 3rd years, combining solid run-stopping technique with an intense inside pass rush (12 sacks in 2002-2003). Jenkins then suffered setbacks in 2004 (shoulder) and 2005 (ACL) which robbed him of his status as an elite player. To his credit, Jenkins rebounded in 2006 and earned his 3rd Pro Bowl nod; and played all 16 games in 2007, as well. Unlike Stroud, Jenkins will be asked to play a different position. The Jets use a 3-4 defensive front and Jenkins will be the team’s new nose tackle. It will be an adjustment but Jenkins has a wide body and low center of gravity, so the adjustment shouldn’t be problematic. For his troubles, the Jets signed him to a new 5-year, $35mm extension.

Shaun Rogers traded to the Browns for CB Leigh Bodden and a 3rd round pick in 2008

Rogers is a physical marvel (6′4″, 340 pounds, 28 years old) with the athleticism of a defensive end but the size of a traditional run stuffer. Perhaps no better indication of his athleticism than the fact he’s blocked 11 (yes, 11!) kicks in his career. In seven seasons in Detroit, he started nearly every game and finished last season with a career high 7 sacks. He signed a six-year extension after the 2004 season and was, at the time, viewed as one of the best young lineman in the NFL. He added Pro Bowl nods to his resume in the following two seasons. However, Rogers injured 2006 season got him off on the wrong foot with new head coach Rod Marinelli, and their relationship never appeared to recover despite a solid 2007 campaign. Rogers will significantly enhance the Browns front line; and the Browns won’t have to immediately commit to a new contract for him.

Corey Williams traded to the Browns for a 2nd round pick in 2008

Williams (6′4″, 313 pounds, 27 years old) emerged this season in Green Bay as a 4-3 tackle capable of periodic dominance. Despite being part of a rotation in Green Bay, Williams put up 14 sacks over the last two years in addition to 69 tackles. The Packers franchised Williams and seemed ready to commit to him long-term. But shortly after the start of free agency, the Packers shipped Williams to the Browns for a 2nd round pick. The Browns will use Williams as a defensive end in the 3-4 scheme and have signed him to a new 6-year, $38mm deal that guarantees him $14mm.

So is this trade frenzy indicative of a new NFL paradigm or simply a statistical quirk of this offseason? It seems that NFL teams are no longer beholden keeping high priced players around hoping they will learn to fit into the system and/or get over their unhappiness at the situation. Will all of these deals work out for the acquiring teams? Certainly not. But in early March when every deal has an optimistic light, it certainly seems like the acquiring teams landed key contributors that would’ve been impossible to find through the draft or free agency.

Buffalo Bills

The Bills are unlikely to tag anyone as their free agent outlook is rather minimal.

Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins have the first overall pick and plenty of needs, but are unlikely to commit a lot of money to any of their free agents. They likely want to retain a number of them (Rex Hadnot, Yeremiah Bell) but none deserve the kind of financial commitment a tag would involve.

New England Patriots

WR Randy Moss

The Patriots acquired Randy Moss last offseason and, to Moss’ credit, he took a one-year deal to prove himself. Well, an 18-1 record and an NFL record 23 TD receptions later, the Pats are in a difficult bargaining position. It seems absurd to believe the Patriots would let Moss walk, or that he would want to leave a team that allowed him to return to HOF form and has a great chance of getting him a ring. BUT…he took a discount last season and is going to want to be paid (justifiably so). Look for the Patriots to tag Moss with the idea of signing him to a long-term deal before the start of the 2008 season.

Note: Some people have asked why I don’t have All Pro CB Asante Samuel listed as a 2nd option. Simply put, Samuel was tagged last year and he agreed to sign the tender under the condition the Patriots couldn’t tag him again this season. Either the Patriots give Samuel a long-term contract or he’s free to walk. 

New York Jets

The Jets don’t have anyone that likely warrants their tag designations. LB Victor Hobson, S Erik Coleman, and OT Adrian Jones are all probably in line to return but for nowhere near franchise or transition tag dollars.

In a much anticipated move, the Jets finally yanked Chad Pennington for second-year pro Kellen Clemens. The Jets were down 10-3 with under four minutes to go in the game. What a spot to put the young passer in. So, what does the former Oregon star do? He throws a pick on the drive. Then, for good measure, on the last play of the game, on a desperation throw, he was picked off again.

So, is this move permanent? Yes. Is it the best move for the 1-7 Jets? Yes, it is. The Jets have one game before the bye week. In the remaining eight games, the New York Jets need to see if the strong-armed quarterback can be their future field leader. One thing to remember is that Clemens only has 60 career pass attempts, with 59 coming this season. He is young and will make mistakes.

The weak arm of Pennington was getting his receivers killed. Laveranues Coles laid motionless on the field Sunday after taking a huge hit on a floater by the former Marshall star. It is not known if the former Redskin will miss this week’s game. He was already suffering from a nagging knee injury.

Now, will the quarterback change help the struggling Jets offense? Probably not. The running game is still inert. The team only has 11 offensive touchdowns in eight games. Star running back, Thomas Jones, has none of them. The quarterback change should help the Jets scoring. Sadly, the Jets’ passers have more interceptions than they do passing touchdowns. With the youngster under center, look for this to continue.

Chad Pennington, even when healthy, has been horrible this season. In four games as the starting quarterback for the New York Jets, Pennington has attempted 118 passes, completing 84, for 811 passing yards. He has six passing touchdowns offset by five interceptions. The Jets have one win on the season, a 31-28 victory against the Miami Dolphins in week three. Under the direction of Pennington, the Jets have lost two straight games they could easily won versus in-state rivals, the Buffalo Bills and the New York Giants.

The schedule does not get easier as the Jets play the Eagles and the Bengals in the next two games. If the former Marshall star continues to struggle, do not be surprised to see second-year passer, Kellen Clemens, in the game. After the loss to the Giants, Pennington had this to say:

“I know the fans are frustrated. I’d be frustrated if I was a fan,” QB Chad Pennington said, standing at the podium in the interview room. “It’s frustrating. It makes you sick to your stomach, really.”

To be fair, the running game has been pitiful and given eight-year veteran little help. But, this is nothing new for the Jets since the Curtis Martin times. The running game last season was just as bad.

Look for the Kellen Clemens era to begin sooner than later. The Jets should be out of the playoff chase very soon. The front office and coaches will want to get a long look at the young passer from Oregon. Can he be the franchise quarterback? We should have a good idea very soon, maybe even before the Jets’ bye in week ten.

Week two of the NFL season saw many players integral to fantasy football nicked up …. with some worse than others.

This is by no means an exhaustive list but shows how widespread the injuries were for skill position players.

QBs:

• Marc Bulger hurt is knee and ribs in week two. He should be ok, but keep an eye on the situation. Make sure to pick Gus up if the news changes on the severity.
• Tarvaris Jackson injured his groin in a hard fought lss to the Detroit Lions. He was having a terrible game as it was. Brooks Bollinger is the backup.
• Steve McNair also has a groin injury. He missed Sunday’s game against the New York Jets. His replacement, Kyle Boller, player well. In fact, many in Baltimore think Boller might give the Ravens a better chance to go far in the playoffs.
• Chad Pennington hurt his ankle in week one against the New England Patriots. He tried to warm up on it but Kellen Clemens started in his stead and played admirably for his first career start. This could be a budding QB controversy.

RBs:

• Rookie Ahmad Bradshaw, who is primarily a kick returner at this time, hurt his elbow in the game against the Packers. Combine this with the Jacobs injury and the Giants are very thin at running back.
• Vernand Morency is still battling knee problems and could be out even longer.

WRs:

• Greg Jennings practiced all week in hopes of playing but his injured hammy could not go. Now, he will sit all week in practice and should be a dreaded game time decision.
• Andre Johnson sprained his PCL (knee) in the week two game. He has been playing so well that the MRI results will be very important.
• Patrick Crayton, playing instead of injured Terry Glenn, broke his finger in the game against the Dolphins. It looked nasty. He went back in the game but was held without a catch.
• Plaxico Burress re-injured his ankle in the week two game against the Packers. With the way Plax has been playing, this is a situation to monitor.
• Burress’ teammate, Steve Smith, fractured his shoulder blade. He should be back in around a month.
• Troy Williamson injured his hammy against the Lions.

Jets HC Eric Mangini may be trying to establish his own identity, but clearly he took a lot of Bill Belichick’s methods to heart. One of the most ingratiating is, of course, the way he treats injuries. Which is to say, he gives us almost nothing to work with. Thomas Jones, who started the preseason solidly in the top 15-20 of fantasy RBs, has seen his ADP drop by a round or two because of his sore Achilles. While many are left to wonder whether he’s 100% healthy; I think the answer lies in the Jets 53-man roster.

When cuts were announced the other day, the Jets were left with ONLY TWO TAILBACKS on the active roster: Thomas Jones and Leon Washington. There aren’t many NFL teams that choose to keep only two tailbacks; does anyone think the Jets would be willing to do that if Jones wasn’t 100% healthy? I certainly don’t.

The NFL Season is just two weeks away, and Fantasy Football drafts are happening all over the country. My eyes are about to pop out of my head from watching 40+ NFL preseason games either in entirety, in fast forward (stopping to catch several key plays) or even on the NFL.com highlight reel. My two DVRs are jam-packed still, but time is a-wastin’.

With that in mind, I have gone through my offensive player rankings for Footballguys for perhaps the last time before Week 1. For obvious reasons I cannot provide my entire rankings list here (subscriber only content), but I can tell you about a few tweaks that I made. There are several changes across the board, mostly minor upticks and downgrades, but I thought it would help some to know about the major moves I made and why:

Running backs:

Take a look here for my overall RB redraft rankings as well as several other Footballguys staff’s opinions.

The running back position is probably the most critical in all of Fantasy Football. Everyone has to pay attention to it, and while it is not impossible to win without good RBs, you are certainly swimming upstream if you don’t have at least a couple.

Based on what I have seen, read and heard over the past few weeks, I have not made many moves in the Top 30 RBs, as most of my expectations have been met for many of the backs. I am keeping an eye on Ahman Green and Lamont Jordan, as I think there is still room for major upside for what price you would have to pay to acquire either of their services.

Looking a little deeper I moved Leon Washington and Adrian Peterson (Chicago) more firmly into the RB40-50 range. Washington showed explosiveness against the Giants last week, breaking a catch and running away from the Big Blue defense for a touchdown to start the game for the Jets. Given his playmaking abilities and Thomas Jones’ injury concerns, I like Washington quite a bit. Peterson (version 1.0) looked good behind the Bears’ offensive line, and I have been rather unimpressed with Cedric Benson so far. Even Garrett Wolfe has looked good, but that was against much lesser talent. Grabbing Peterson is a must if you get Benson, but even if you don’t have the starter for Chicago, Peterson represents a great value later in many drafts.

So who’s sliding down the board? Kevin Jones is a no-brainer to avoid this season. With everyone expecting him to be on the “PUP” list (Physically Unable to Perform) for Weeks 1-6, I just don’t hold much hope for him to contribute. In his absence Tatum Bell and T.J. Duckett will be serviceable, but I don’t know if either is a good fantasy option.

Lastly I’ll mention a favorite sleeper, and that is Lorenzo Booker of the Miami Dolphins. I love the talent and the character of Booker, but he just hasn’t shown much so far in preseason. Yes, he was given time off as he just became a father, but with the uncertainty of how he will perform for Miami and also the emergence of Jesse Chatman as the probable #2 option behind Ronnie Brown I have to move Booker down the charts.

Next up…. Wide Receivers.

The NFL Season is just two weeks away, and Fantasy Football drafts are happening all over the country. My eyes are about to pop out of my head from watching 40+ NFL preseason games either in entirety, in fast forward (stopping to catch several key plays) or even on the NFL.com highlight reel. My two DVRs are jam-packed still, but time is a-wastin’.

With that in mind, I have gone through my offensive player rankings for Footballguys for perhaps the last time before Week 1. For obvious reasons I cannot provide my entire rankings list here (subscriber only content), but I can tell you about a few tweaks that I made. There are several changes across the board, mostly minor upticks and downgrades, but I thought it would help some to know about the major moves I made and why:

Quarterbacks:

Take a look here for my overall QB redraft rankings as well as several other Footballguys staff’s opinions.

Not much changed here actually. Two names did move up, and those are Jeff Garcia and Joey Harrington. Garcia has moved the offense well enough and I predict that he’ll be at the Bucs’ helm all season. Tampa Bay will be throwing more than they may even like, and Garcia still shows some mobility.

As for Harrington, those of you who saw the Monday Night Football game against the Bengals saw some of the reasons why he’s climbing the trailing end of the QB chart. Now don’t go crazy or start the “Atlanta to the playoffs” campaign, but Harrington throws a much easier ball to catch, something that the previous Falcons QB was often criticized for when he held that job. Harrington moved the chains and led an offense that was not afraid to focus on the passing game. New head coach Bobby Petrino even gave some 5-WR sets in the preseason, showing that he will air it out at times. If you are in a deeper league or start 2 QBs, Harrington is a nice third option.

What goes up mean something else must come down, so there are a few names that slid a few spots on my QB list. Without revealing all the names, I will say the first and most prominent one is Chad Pennington. He slid down only a few ticks, but with his poor August performances and Kellen Clemen’s good games there could be some reason for concern.

Next up…. Running backs.

With the recent Thomas Jones injury, Leon Washington is a guy to watch. Washington is a playmaker, pure and simple. Washington’s teammates are impressed with his abilities:

Nose tackle Dewayne Robertson sometimes finds himself stretching his neck from the sidelines, trying to get a glimpse of his teammate’s latest jaw-dropping move. Quarterback Chad Pennington calls the pint-sized speedster one of the toughest guys on the team. Center Nick Mangold said blocking for him is pure fun and he marvels at his ability to cut in an instant.

Linebacker Eric Barton added that the second-year pro is one of those players you have to account for on every play. Wide receiver Laveranues Coles described him as one of the most dangerous weapons in the NFL.

Leon’s explosiveness has led the Jet coaching staff to find ways to utilize the playmaker. This past weekend, the traditional running back lined up as a wide receiver and took a 79-yard pass to the house.

Keep an eye on Leon Washington this season. With Thomas Jones’ age, Washington could play and produce big numbers at a relatively cheap price.

Continuing on…I thought it might be helpful to give you a few quick hitting comments on which players are rising and falling in MY (i.e., different than Dodds’) projections this preseason.

Up next, the AFC East:

RISING

• Kellen Clemens, NYJ (Rank: QB41) — Still backup, but solid play = dark horse replacement starter
• Ronnie Brown, MIA (Rank: RB10) — Cam Cameron rides one horse, Dolphins O-line looking OK
• Leon Washington, NYJ (Rank: RB40) — Solid play, Jones’ injury + Receiving threat = 3rd down back w/ upside
• Anthony Thomas, BUF (Rank: RB42) — Running with 1st team, will split carries with Lynch
• Jesse Chatman, MIA (Rank: RB54) — Clearly emerging as Fins RB2
• Lee Evans, BUF (Rank: WR6) — Elite talent, chemistry with Losman
• Wes Welker, NE (Rank: WR49) — Possession receiver having strong camp
• David Martin, MIA (Rank: TE24) — Efficient scorer, getting lots of work in preseason
• Robert Royal, BUF (Rank: TE29) — Emerged as clear-cut starter

FALLING

• Chad Pennington, NYJ (Rank: QB25) — Inconsistent camp + Clemens strong play = risky
• Trent Green, MIA (Rank: QB28) — I originally slotted him around QB20, but struggles brought me back to the mean
• Thomas Jones, NYJ (Rank: RB21) — Achilles injury + Pete Kendall trade = a few notches lower
• Marshawn Lynch, BUF (Rank: RB28) — Jauron committed to RBBC, Lynch not running hard at times
• Lorenzo Booker, MIA (Rank: RB70) — A non-factor thus far in the preseason
• Randy Moss, NE (Rank: WR10) — Lack of practice in August means slower start to the season
• Jerricho Cotchery, NYJ (Rank: WR32) — Good, but not great talent
• Kevin Everett, BUF (Rank: TE52) — Royal emerged as starter, Everett a preseason non-factor

Let’s hear your thoughts…where do you agree? Where do you disagree and why?

While it can be dangerous to read too much into the first “official” depth charts and the fluff pieces beat writers produce early in the preseason, there are always important nuggets to be gleaned from watching preseason games and carefully considering the comments of coaches and coordinators. Here’s a look at some of the changes in the IDP landscape thus far.Winners

• ILB Adalius Thomas — As was reported during OTAs, Thomas lined up all over the field last week but primarily at LILB. That’s often been the better tackling position in the Belichick scheme in recent years. Thomas looked a little uncomfortable inside at times but the combination of increased run support opportunity and pass rush skill may prove a lethal combination in the boxscore.
• DE Robert Geathers — After the team hinted that he would remain in a situational pass rushing role, Geathers played every down with the first team defense. Geathers has flashed decent run supporting skill in prior seasons and has 45 solo, 10 sack potential in the full time role.
• SS Deon Grant — Some felt Grant was in for a big bump in stats after leaving the limiting Jacksonville scheme for the greener Seahawk defense but the news that Grant would take on a more traditional strong safety role should make him an even safer bet for 2007.
• SS Chris Harris — Harris became a must roster after the Panthers acquired him from the Bears as camp began. Harris may not be a special NFL talent, but his IDP value goes from non-existent as a backup with Chicago to the starting SS in Carolina.
• WLB Landon Johnson — Another Bengal who looks to have a bigger role than initially expected, Johnson started with the first team last week. An underrated all-around backer, Johnson played well enough the first week to keep Ed Hartwell a backup MLB/WLB.
• OLB Antwan Peek — Peek isn’t a stud NFL talent, but Willie McGinest’s back surgery and Kamerion Wimbley’s beastly performance in the first preseason game could push Peek into every week starter status in big play leagues this year.

Losers

• OLB Chike Okeafor — Okeafor is likely out for the season after suffering a torn bicep muscle last week. Owners looking to use Okeafor as a DL and get OLB stat lines are going to have to find another option to exploit the “Bryan Thomas” classification loophole.
• MLB Ahmad Brooks — Caleb Miller replaced Brooks in nickel situations in the first preseason game despite earlier indications that Brooks would be an every down linebacker. There’s still time for Brooks to prove himself in coverage and the team has praised his effort in practice, but this isn’t a good start to 2007.
• FS Will Demps — The Giants began camp with Gibril Wilson at FS, James Butler at SS and Demps, who was one of the better producing free safeties in IDP leagues last year, on the second team. Demps is apparently rotating in with the first team again this week but the writing may be on the wall for him.
• MLB Brian Simmons — A nagging chronic knee problem and the surprisingly consistent play of last year’s starter Mark Simoneau has Simmons stuck on the second team. If Simmons can’t get on the field and impress soon, he’ll have a hard time securing any IDP value in 2007 without an injury to another starter.
• WLB Keith Ellison — While it may not be set in stone yet, Ellison sat in nickel situations during the first preseason game. Though it appears Ellison will shift with the offensive formation to remain a WLB on all base defensive snaps, sitting in the nickel will keep him from becoming more than a LB3.
• OLB Bryan Thomas — The NFL.com gamebook and Jets official depth chart has finally be updated to reflect Thomas’ correct position as an OLB. Those holding out hope that Thomas will remain a DL in your IDP league have hopefully already made other arrangements.

Other ongoing storylines:

Patrick Willis is still behind Derek Smith at RILB in the 49er base defense. Roman Harper looks fully recovered and may play linebacker in the nickel defense for New Orleans. Demorrio Williams has been cleared for contact nearly a month before he was expected to return and is running with the first team in Atlanta. Gibril Wilson has been tabbed for the big play FS role that Brian Dawkins played in Philadelphia. Eagle LB Takeo Spikes is turning heads in camp and may have recovered his sideline-to-sideline range.

Keep an eye on our free IDP centered message board at FootballGuys for breaking news and quick analysis on the defensive side of the ball. And watch for our new weekly IDP podcast on The Audible which will debut next week.

On the day that Curtis Martin retired, the news that Cedric Houston will no longer be a New York Jet was the big story in Jetsland. It looks like a done deal.

What does this mean for fantasy football? The Jets will rely on veteran Thomas Jones, and promising young Leon Washington, more than expected. Jones was brought in to be the workhorse and the loss of Houston means Jones’ owners do not have to worry about a TD vulture. Washington is the guy to watch. He flashed potential in 2006 as a rookie. It will be interesting to see how he is used. The only other RBs on the Jets depth chart are Danny Ware and Alvin Banks. So, unless a veteran back is signed, Jones and Washington are the only viable ball carriers on the roster.

The loss of Houston should slightly raise Jones in the rankings of fantasy owners. Jones will be a solid, serviceable RB2 for fantasy teams. But, the back that benefits the most is Leon Washington. The loss of Houston might mean three or four more touches per game for Washington. He could get close to 200 touches in 2007, without predicting injury to Jones. That would make Leon a decent lineup replacement for bye weeks or injury. Raise Washington and Jones in your rankings. These two backs, especially with the Houston departure, are now backs that scream value in many leagues. Thomas Jones has an ADP of RB19 or player 28 overall. Washington has an ADP of RB47 and player 139 overall. With those prices, drafting Jones as a cheap RB2 in 3rd round and Washington in the 12th round as a handcuff is a good strategy. If not, each on their own is easily worth the draft pick spent.

Curtis Martin was one of the most reliable NFL running backs, posting top 20 fantasy finishes for the first 10 years of his career - during six of those campaigns, he was a top 10 back. He was widely known for his intense off-season training regimen and his toughness in-season (during his 10-year run among the top 20 fantasy backs, 1995-2004, he missed a total of 4 games). In short, Martin was a guy that fantasy owners could build their franchises around.

It is with regret that we see him retire. Footballguys.com salutes Martin for his meretorious career and substantial contributions to the league both on and off he field.

So, what can fantasy owners (or real-world NFL execs) learn from Martin and his career?

First of all, talent is not enough to excel for a decade in this league. The top players (like Martin, Jerry Rice, LaDainian Tomlinson) dedicate themselves to peak physical conditioning and rigorous execution of their team’s offense. The leagues’ best players are, in a word, perfectionists.

Secondly, as the unfolding/unraveling career of Michael Vick highlights, character counts at the pro level, where everyone is among the top .1 of 1% of all the football players in the world. Those with the discipline to devote themselves to perfecting their skills and developing their physical gifts to the highest peak of performance land in the Hall of Fame (Joe Montana, Steve Young, Troy Aikman). Those who waste their time and talents on other activities ultimately fall by the wayside.

Fantasy owners should be evaluating their potential players not only based on their on-field performance, but also on their off-field behavior. Kerry Collins’ years in Charlotte were marred by his partying, and he never became a perenial all-pro; Todd Marinovich was a first round selection by the Raiders in 1991 and played in a total of 8 games before landing on the curb. Both players battled substance-abuse issues.

Players who run in posses with thuggish characters and/or frequent trouble spots like strip clubs (Adam Jones of Tennessee leaps to mind) should raise a big red flag for owners. Professional athletes should spend their time in activities that bring credit to themselves and their organizations, rather than the opposite. Jimmy Johnson once joked he’d sign Charles Manson if Manson was fast enough, but the reality is that criminal behavior is indicative of serious character flaws that ultimately impact a player’s performance on the field.

Curtis Martin exemplifies the character and work ethic that real-world NFL owners (or fantasy owners) should seek in their players - to ignore warning signs like the Bengals’ front office has done in recent years re: Chris Henry and Odell Thurman often results in disappointment for the organization and the fans. Obviously, sticking your head in the sand can lead to disastrous consequences for fantasy owners as well.

Today on The Audible, Cecil, Sigmund and I take a look at the AFC East top to bottom.

QB Breakdown: LISTEN NOW!
Topics Include: the maturity of JP Losman, what kind of role the Bills see for Trent Edwards, Trent Greens expected production in Miami, when will John Beck be ready, how good Tom Brady can be this year, is Matt Cassell the real deal, Chad Pennington, Kellen Clemens, plus more!

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RB Breakdown: LISTEN NOW!
Topics Include: Marshawn Lynch in a RBBC, the future of Dwayne Wright, concerns about Ronnie Brown, the upside and downside of Lorenzo Booker, Laurence Maroney, the Jets new starting RB Thomas Jones, plus more!

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WR Breakdown: LISTEN NOW!
Topics Include: the great playmaker Lee Evans, who will start opposite of Evans in Buffalo, Chris Chambers, how will Randy Moss do in New England, can Wes Welker catch 50 plus passes in the Patriots offense, Laveranues Coles, plus more!

Last June I wrote this article detailing how teams have allocated their passing yards. Here’s a snip:

I do my projections from the top down. First I project how many offensive plays each team is going to run. Then I project what percentage of them will be rushes and passes. Concentrating on the passing side of the equation for now, the next thing I do is project the team’s passing yards per attempt. Multiply that by the projected attempts and I’ve got a projection for the team’s passing yards.

Then I start divvying up the yards among the pass catchers on the team. To give me a rough estimate, I look at the percentage of the team’s passing yards that have gone to wide receivers, tight ends, and running backs for the past few years. That’s what this article is: the percentage of each team’s passing yards that have gone to the various positions for the last three years.

Here are the NFL averages for the last three years:

          ==== WR =====|=== TE ===|=== RB ==
TM   YR     1  2  3  T |  1  2  T |  1  2  T
============================================
NFL 2004 | 28 20 11 66 | 12  3 17 |  8  4 16
    2005 | 29 18 11 66 | 14  3 18 |  9  4 15
    2006 | 28 19 11 65 | 13  4 18 | 10  4 17

Let’s take a moment to make sure everyone is clear on what this means. Last year, the average NFL team’s top wide receiver (by total receiving yards) accounted for 28% of the team’s yards. The second wide receiver accounted for 19%, the third 11%, and all wide receivers combined accounted for 65%. Similarly, an average NFL team’s top receiving tight end was responsible for 13% of the team’s receiving yards, and so on.

Keep in mind that injuries and other factors can cause these numbers to be a bit misleading at times. The 2005 Eagles, to take one extreme example, show a WR1 percentage of 20% and a WR2 percentage of 14%. But it was probably closer to 40% and 10% while Terrell Owens was on the field.

Over the next several days, we’ll be taking a division-by-division look at how each team has allocated its passing yards during the last three years. Please add your own comments about how these percentages might shake out in 2007.

AFC East

          ==== WR =====|=== TE ===|=== RB ==
TM   YR     1  2  3  T |  1  2  T |  1  2  T
============================================
nyj 2004 | 26 24 12 69 |  6  3  9 | 11  8 22
    2005 | 28 24  8 67 | 11  9 21 |  5  4 12
    2006 | 33 29 10 77 |  9  1 10 |  8  1 13

          ==== WR =====|=== TE ===|=== RB ==
TM   YR     1  2  3  T |  1  2  T |  1  2  T
============================================
buf 2004 | 35 29  5 75 |  7  3 13 |  6  4 12
    2005 | 29 26 16 80 |  5  1  6 |  6  4 15
    2006 | 42 13 13 80 |  8  2  9 |  5  5 11

          ==== WR =====|=== TE ===|=== RB ==
TM   YR     1  2  3  T |  1  2  T |  1  2  T
============================================
mia 2004 | 27 19 11 62 | 23  3 27 |  4  2 11
    2005 | 32 20 13 70 | 17  2 18 |  7  3 11
    2006 | 21 19 19 66 | 18  3 21 |  8  5 13

          ==== WR =====|=== TE ===|=== RB ==
TM   YR     1  2  3  T |  1  2  T |  1  2  T
============================================
nwe 2004 | 23 21 12 67 | 10  5 18 |  7  6 15
    2005 | 23 17 11 65 | 10  5 17 |  6  5 18
    2006 | 21 11 10 50 | 18  7 29 | 10  5 21