Now that the NFL Draft is in the books, we are standing on the cusp of the NFL preseason. During the coming weeks, rookie mini-camps will grind into gear and hard-core fantasy owners will start the process of evaluating this year’s draft picks potential for “instant impact” during 2008. In redraft fantasy football leagues, one key requirement for the kind of production that fantasy owners crave is opportunity. A player like TE Martellus Bennett (a 2nd-round selection by Dallas) may have all the talent in the world, but his chances for a meaningful 2008 season in fantasy terms are very slight due to being buried on the depth chart behind All-Pro TE Jason Witten.

The below is a preliminary list of the top rookie prospects for redraft fantasy leagues, given their new NFL homes.

Rookie Running Backs

The running back position is where the fantasy gems among the rookies are most likely to be found. While it is true that for every Adrian Peterson (Minnesota) or Joseph Addai one can point at, there are also players like J.J. Arrington or Chris Perry who serve as a counter-examples, it is also true that running backs tend to make the quickest transition to playing at the NFL level. A fantasy owner is most likely to find an “instant impact” player among the rookie running backs in any given calendar year.

Jonathan Stewart is probably the best bet at running back to generate fantasy impact during his rookie season. He is the sort of running back that the Panthers’ coaching staff prefers, and they have been retooling their offensive line for a power running attack - Stewart fits the mold that Carolina is built to utilize. DeAngelo Williams simply isn’t the player the coaching staff wants to rely on as their #1 RB - he is better suited to a change-of-pace, 3rd-down role in their scheme. Stewart figures to have plenty of touches on the ball with the Panthers this year.

Darren McFadden is a boom-or-bust type prospect. Yes, he has the type of speed and top gear that make him a threat to go to the house on every down, and he projects to be the starter with the Raiders (assuming his contract negotiations go well and he avoids a JaMarcus Russell-type holdout scenario). However, there is a crowded RB stable in Oakland, with Justin Fargas coming off a 1000+ yard season - if McFadden struggles with the pro game, he may not get many chances to redeem himself.

Kevin Smith lands with the Lions, who really like his game and seem to be indicating that the starting job is his to lose during 2008. We’ll see if their actions match their draft-day rhetoric - but Tatum Bell hasn’t looked like the answer since he arrived in Detroit, and as of today, he is the only other back of note on the team. If Smith impresses in training camp it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him starting for the Lions in September.

Matt Forte comes into a by-committee backfield situation, with both Cedric Benson and Adrian Peterson grinding out 3.4 yards per carry last season. Peterson was far more productive than Benson in the passing game (51/420/0 receiving vs. 17/123/0) and actually led the team in total yardage and fantasy points at the RB position last year. Benson has greatly underperformed his draft slot (1st round -4th pick in 2005) and may find himself riding the pine if Forte proves that he outperform Benson during training camp.

Rashard Mendenhall is likely to be Willie Parker’s primary backup for this year, but given Parker’s difficulty at the goal-line last year (321/1316/2 rushing), Mendenhall could find a role as the Steelers’ goal-line back (Najeh Davenport gained 107/499/5 rushing and 18/184/2 as the Steelers’ big back/change of pace back last year). If Mendenhall seals the #2 job with Pittsburgh, he could have value in basic scoring leagues (any league where TD production is the primary scoring criteria).

Felix Jones joins fellow rookie Tashard Choice as the new backups to Marion Barber III. Barber looks set to carry the majority of the load for Dallas, but Jones’ outside speed will give him a shot to earn playing time as the 3rd down back/passing down back - depending on how quickly Jones picks up the Cowboys’ offense and learns to pick up the blitz.

Rookie Wide Receivers

Second to the running backs, rookie WRs occasionally step into the NFL and make fantasy owners’ seasons. The most obvious example of this phenomenon would be Randy Moss’s first incredible season (69/1313/17) with Minnesota (he was the #1 fantasy WR as a rookie) - Larry Fitzgerald’s 58/780/8 as a rookie was also pretty outstanding for a rookie WR (30th best fantasy WR during 2004). However, it is far more often the case that rookie WRs bust (especially in their first season of NFL action). The last time I fell hard for a rookie WR’s potential, I ended up having Rashaun Woods among my preseason top 36 fantasy prospects - only to watch him fail miserably at the NFL level. Now-a-days, it is my rule of thumb that exactly zero rookie WRs land among my top 40 or so fantasy prospects until they have proven their skills extensively in training camp and preseason games - and even then I tend to be conservative about drafting them early - I would urge fantasy owners to be very leery of rookie wideouts.

James Hardy appears to have landed in the best situation among the draftees, with a legitimate shot at capturing the #2 wide receiver position on the Buffalo Bills. Other than Lee Evans, the Bills’ WRs generated 1 receiving TD last year (Josh Reed was #2 in yardage with 51/578/0) - not exactly what the coaching staff was looking for, to say the least. However, don’t go overboard with your enthusiasm for Hardy - the Bills were 30th in the NFL when it came to passing offense, so his ceiling as the #2 WR (if he gets that far) is relatively low compared to a player on a franchise like New England.

DeSean Jackson figures to be in the mix in Philadelphia, but the team spreads the ball around quite a bit - the 2nd best receiver on the Eagles over the past two years failed to get over 800 yards receiving or score more than 5 times, and the players at WR3 and below are non-factors in fantasy terms.

Devin Thomas may challenge for playing time in Washington, but with a developing young QB in Jason Campbell and an entrenched #1 WR in Santana Moss combined with a high-scoring TE hogging red-zone chances (Chris Cooley has 6 or more TDs in each of his first 4 seasons) - Thomas will have significant obstacles to overcome before he starts putting up the kind of statistics that make fantasy owners excited.

Malcolm Kelly - see Devin Thomas above.

Jerome Simpson landed with Cincinnati while the Bengals are searching for a replacement WR3 - if he can wow the coaching staff in training camp and sew up the WR3 spot, he could put up decent numbers now and then during 2008.

Rookie Quarterbacks

Excepting Peyton Manning , the exception who proves the rule, no rookie QB has been a fantasy standout during recent memory - even Dan Marino took one season to get up to speed before exploding during his second campaign way back in 1984. Unless you are convinced that Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco or any of the other draftees this year are of the caliber of a Peyton Manning or a Dan Marino, you should probably pass on them during your redraft league’s annual draft.

Matt Ryan will likely get his chance to start during 2008, perhaps early on in the season if Chris Redman falters during training camp. Ryan is sure to suffer typical rookie growing pains once he does get into the lineup, so he probably won’t have any games worth mentioning until very late in the season, if then.

Joe Flacco may be the heir apparent in Baltimore, but he’s currently buried behind Kyle Boller and Troy Smith (last year’s draft pick at the position). The Ravens got burned the last time they rushed a QB into the starting lineup (witness Boller’s checkered career with Baltimore) - they aren’t likely to make the same mistake with Flacco. He’ll likely carry the clipboard after preseason, with occasional spot duty in blow out wins or losses.

Rookie Tight Ends

Rookie tight ends are very seldom worth drafting - Tony Gonzalez scored 2 TDs in his rookie campaign (33/368/2), as did Antonio Gates (24/389/2), as did the ultra-hyped rookie TE of 2007, Greg Olsen (39/391/2). The three above examples are actually best-case scenarios for the vast majority of rookie TEs - the position is very demanding at the pro level and it simply takes more than 1 training camp and regular season to absorb all the duties that are asked of a pro TE. Among the 2008 draftees, expect 300+ and 1-2 TDs to be a ceiling when you are crafting your projections.

New Seahawk John Carlson will battle Jeb Putzier for playing time during 2008, and could end up starting for Seattle sooner rather than later. He is the TE prospect who landed in the best situation (such as it is) from the fantasy perspective.

Dustin Keller arrives to the Jets via a first round pick, but he’ll have to earn his way into the starting lineup - solid-but-unspectacular Chris Baker has scored 4 TDs in 2 of the past 4 seasons, and posted 41/409/3 last year. Keller will have the opportunity to learn the position from Baker and another veteran TE, Bubba Franks, this season. Keller is a guy to watch as the year progresses - he might be worth a flyer in free agency late in the season (just before fantasy playoffs) if he manages to earn playing time during 2008.

The NFL Draft is an exciting time of year for football junkies, but it is just the beginning of a long process. Don’t let your draft weekend enthusiasm drown out your better judgement as you prepare your preliminary draft lists for 2008. We have yet to get an inkling who among the draftees will fulfill their promise, which ones will outperform expectations - and how many will go bust in their first season as a pro football players.

2.32: Phillip Merling, DE, Miami Dolphins

Pass rusher had some injury woes but was effective off the edge when healthy. Has the size (6′5″, 272 pounds) that Bill Parcells covets. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.33: Donnie Avery, WR, St. Louis Rams

Quite a surprise. The first WR off the board is a small, uber fast guy considered a mid round pick by most scouts. Hard to believe he can replace Isaac Bruce without a few years of seasoning. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.34: Devin Thomas, WR, Washington Redskins (via Oakland through Atlanta)

The Redskins draft the WR many expected to be first off the WR board. Devin Thomas only had one big year at Michigan but has great size (6′2″, 215 pounds) and can also help as a kickoff returner. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.35: Brandon Flowers, CB, Kansas City Chiefs

If Flowers ran a tenth of a second faster, he would’ve been a mid 1st rounder. Great choice for the rebuilding Chiefs. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.36: Jordy Nelson, WR, Green Bay Packers (via New York Jets)

Another surprising WR selection. Was WR really a need for Green Bay with Driver, Jennings and Jones on the roster? Should help on special teams right away. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.37: Curtis Lofton, LB, Atlanta Falcons

Tackling machine, ideally suited for the inside where he can flow downfield to the ball. Not someone good in space and must be put in the right scheme to succeed. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.38: John Carlson, TE, Seattle Seahawks (via Baltimore)

Mike Holmgren called this a need, and the ‘hawks felt Carlson was a perfect fit for their West Coast offense. Carlson put up big numbers with Brady Quinn under center, as a reminder. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.39: Chilo Rachal, OG, San Francisco 49ers

Rachal gets knocked for not being a great athlete, but he’s technically sound and has a mean streak. As long as he plays inside and isn’t asked to pull and extend to the 2nd level much, he could be a starter immediately. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.40: Tracy Porter, CB, New Orleans Saints

Ironic that the Saints draft a cornerback with the 40th pick; considering there were rumors all week that the 40th pick would be part of a package to acquire Eagles CB Lito Sheppard. Porter is good at tracking the ball but isn’t a sure tackler or much help supporting the run.

2.41: James Hardy, WR, Buffalo Bills

The Bills landed the top corner in the draft last round and, in my opinion, the best receiver in the draft at 2.41. Hardy is a big guy who isn’t afraid of contact. He goes up for the ball and runs good routes; which helps offset a lack of breakaway speed.

2.42: Eddie Royal, WR, Denver Broncos

Royal is one of a handful of receivers who also project as solid returner at the next level. At only 5′8″, 184 pounds, Royal will need to prove he can hold up as a receiver over the course of the season. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.43: Tyrell Johnson, S, Minnesota Vikings (via Carolina through Philadelphia)

Kenny Phillips has the bigger name, but Johnson may have the bigger game. The Vikes continue to bolster their defense with another solid young, physical player. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.44: Matt Forte, RB, Chicago Bears

I’m not crazy about Forte; I don’t believe he’s a special back nor was he the best back left on the board. However, Forte has his supporters and it’s not inconceivable he could earn the starting gig over Cedric Benson sooner rather than later.

2.45: Jordon Dizon, OLB, Detroit Lions

Dizon lacks ideal size and speed; but like many solid NFL linebackers before him, he just makes plays. He’s instinctive and a sound tackler; exactly the kind of guy Rod Marinelli can build around. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.46: Jerome Simpson, WR, Cincinnati Bengals

Further proof that beauty is in the eye of the beholder at WR this year. Simpson wasn’t close to the best WR prospect on the board, but clearly the Bengals felt otherwise. At least, this pick fills a need given the release of Chris Henry and concerns about Chad Johnson’s status.

2.47: Trevor Laws, DT, Philadelphia Eagles (via Minnesota)

The Eagles finally make a pick, and it’s clearly a “best player available” selection. Defensive tackle was hardly a major need, but Laws is a high character, high motor guy who will add depth to an already young tackle rotation.

2.48: Fred Davis, TE, Washington Redskins (via Houston through Atlanta)

The Redskins are committed to getting QB Jason Campbell weapons. First Devin Thomas and now a pass-receiving tight end a few picks later. Davis doesn’t project into an elite tight end, but the Redskins don’t need him to be given the presence of Chris Cooley.

2.49: DeSean Jackson, WR/KR, Philadelphia Eagles

Many Birds fans wouldn’t have complained if Jackson was the pick in the 1st round. So to trade down, grab a 2009 1st rounder as compensation and get DeSean anyway was a coup. He’s tiny (169 pounds) but is blazing fast and unstoppable in the open field. He instantly gives the Eagles the best returner they’ve had in 5 years.

2.50: Calais Campbell, DE, Arizona Cardinals

You don’t find many 6′8″, 280 pound ends; yet Campbell fell into the 2nd round because of an uneven 2007 season. He was a stud in 2006 and, as long as the Cards play him at the right position, should combine with free agent Clark Haggans to improve the Cards pass rush.

2.51: Malcolm Kelly, WR, Washington Redskins

Sure, he’s slower than you would like. But have teams watched this kid play? He’s a polished route runner, has great hands and excellent body control. Very reminiscent of the year Chad Johnson fell because of his slow 40-time; the Skins got a steal.

2.52: Quentin Groves, DE, Jacksonville Jaguars (via Tampa Bay)

The Jags have a stifling defense already, but they aren’t great at putting pressure on opposing QBs. Adding Quentin Groves in the 2nd after taking Derrick Harvey 8th overall goes a long way to changing the Jags pass rush. Groves character issues aside, this was a solid pick.

2.53: Limas Sweed, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers

Some scouts love Sweed, some see him as a bust. At 53rd overall, the Steelers aren’t risking a lot financially to find out if he’s the next Plaxico Burress. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.54: Jason Jones, DE, Tennessee Titans

Jones could replace Antwan Odom right away, but he’s a bit raw to expect that. Eventually the Titans see Jones as a capable 2-way end in their 4-3 defense. His skill set is more suited to defensive tackle, but his size projects him as an end.

2.55: Ray Rice, RB, Baltimore Ravens (via Seattle)

Ray Rice is a local product who was wildly productive as the main ball carrier for Rutgers. While he lacks prototypical size, his low center of gravity and style make him more than capable of being an every down back if needed.

2.56: Brian Brohm, QB, Green Bay Packers (via Cleveland)

Now that’s kind of surprising. Or is it? The Pack took Aaron Rodgers in the 1st when Brett Favre was under center, so why wouldn’t they take the most accurate QB prospect in the 2nd round given Rodgers inexperience? Worst case, he’s a backup for a few years. Best case, he outplays Rodgers and ends up starting in a year or two.

2.57: Chad Henne, QB, Miami Dolphins (via San Diego)

How about that? It looks like Jake Long may be blocking for Chad Henne for a few more years. Another smart pick. He could easily outplay Beck and McCown to win the job; at the very lesaet he’s a big armed, young backup for a good price.

2.58: Dexter Jackson, WR/KR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (via Jacksonville)

This was a reach pick. While Jackson is another potentially dangerous return man; he needs a lot of maturing as a route runner before he can reasonably play WR on a regular basis. Blistering speed (4.33) though and dangerous in the open field.

2.59: Mike Pollak, OG/C, Indianapolis Colts

A classic Colts pick. Their only 1st day pick and it’s a fundamentally sound center that they project as a starting offensive guard for now and possibly a replacement for Jeff Saturday later. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.60: Patrick Lee, DB, Green Bay Packers

A hard worker, Lee may someday start at corner but not for a few seasons. In the meantime, he can be a force on special teams and perhaps play nickel back particularly in run support situations. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.61: Martellus Bennett, TE, Dallas Cowboys

I like this pick more than most. For my money, Bennett was the top TE in this draft. He’s huge, is a good blocker who can become great, and should be a key red zone target given his height and willingness to go up for the ball. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.62: Terrence Wheatley, CB, New England Patriots

The Pats always seem to find value and this was no exception. Wheatley is a legitimate shutdown cover corner who, were it not for myriad injuries in college, would’ve been in the hunt for a top 15 selection. Either way, he’ll help the Pats on defense and special teams.

2.63: Terrell Thomas, CB, New York Giants

Thomas is the 217th USC Trojan to be drafted in the first two rounds (not really, just feels that way). If the Giants view him as a corner, I don’t like this pick. But if they’re going to try to convert him to safety; where his deficiencies can be obfuscated somewhat, the choice makes more sense.

Panthers get:

• 19th pick (used to select OT Jeff Otah)

Eagles get:

• 43rd pick (2nd round)
• 109th pick (4th round)
• 2009 1st round pick

NFL free agency is upon us, and big names are already packing their bags (or paying someone to do it) for new cities. Asante Samuel, Alan Faneca, Bernard Berrian, Donte Stallworth, and more are all ready to get their new jersey and playbook. Millions of dollars are flying everywhere as big names get signed almost hourly.

Two names are missing off of that list - Michael Turner and Randy Moss.

Let’s talk about Moss first. Sure, Berrian and Stallworth are now in Minnesota and Cleveland, respectively - but there are other WRs that are in the wind right now with their futures uncertain. Everyone is talking about what will happen with Larry Fitzgerald in Arizona, and neither Fitz nor the Cards are happy. Fitzgerald doesn’t want to budge much off of his big payday, which he has earned, but the Cardinals are on the outside looking in with Faneca and others getting signed elsewhere. With a salary cap problem that makes Dan Snyder look like Scott Pioli, Arizona is left out in the cold while the hot stove NFL names ink deals.

So what’s this have to do with Randy Moss? Well, Fitzgerald wants his money but odds are that he also wants to be paid like the best WR in the NFL. Has anyone else considered that Moss’ next contract could set the bar for what any deal has to beat to get to that level? I’ve thought about it and it is starting to make sense. All these talks of trades for Lito Sheppard and a draft choice with the Eagles and other possible scenarios for Fitzgerald would all hinge on a new and cap-friendly contract with Larry’s John Hancock on the bottom. If Randy Moss signs a deal with either the Patriots or another franchise, it sets the high watermark for WR salaries.

The downside for Fitzgerald in this stalemate is two-fold: the Cards cannot wait forever, and there is also the risk that Moss could go the Philadelphia. Arizona does not want to cripple themselves with a massive cap number to keep Fitzgerald, yet the front office is still saying that they are willing to do just that. Odds are that if he won’t renegotiate, the Cardinals would be better served to move him off of their bloated books. The problem for both sides is that every signing like Berrian and Stallworth reduces the chances of a trade, reducing the number of teams that would go hard after Fitzgerald, and also that the longer this drags on the more it hurts Arizona’s chances for improvement by adding more talent.

Look for Randy Moss to make up his mind soon, and I would not be surprised at all to see both Fitz and the Cards celebrate Moss’ decision.

I’ll talk more about Michael Turner and the running backs next.

Asante Samuel, considered the top defensive free agent by most, wasted little time in finding a new home. Today he signed a 6-year, $57mm deal with the Philadelphia Eagles. Samuel has an astounding 16 interceptions in the last two seasons, excluding the game-changing picks he made in the playoffs, as well.

Why the Eagles made this move…

Inexplicably, more than a few Eagles fans (and radio hosts) wondered today why this was the Eagles big free agent move. Putting aside the absurdity of questioning the acquisition of the premiere free agent in this year’s crop, there is an extremely obvious reason why this move makes inordinate sense:

• 11 interceptions
• 19 takeaways

The Eagles were among the worst in the league last season at creating turnovers; and that kept a top 10 defense (statistically) from being a real difference maker. Samuel single-handedly changes that dynamic.

But what about Lito Sheppard?

Lito Sheppard is, in his own right, an excellent cornerback and unheralded for his importance to the Eagles defensive scheme. Unfortunately, Sheppard has missed 14 regular season games in the last three seasons and has a reputation for being a “slow healer.” He’s also expressed unhappiness about his contract status.

So is Lito going to be an Eagle in 2008?

There are two telling quotes from Andy Reid today that paint the picture:

1)  “We’re obviously trying to strengthen the defense,” Reid said. “Obviously, I think the cornerback position is very important. When you have an opportunity to get the best one in the business, then you need to look at that. I welcome him aboard, and I know [defensive coordinator] Jim Johnson has great plans for Asante.

2)  Head coach Andy Reid said Samuel will be his starting left cornerback for 2008. Beyond that, Reid said “we’ll work things out from there.”

Lito wants a bigger contract, and is now losing his spot to the league’s highest paid corner. Does that sound like Lito is in the Birds’ plans for 2008?

OK, so what are the Eagles going to do with Lito?

Expect the Eagles to aggressively pursue a trade opportunity. Sheppard is a Pro Bowl corner and signed through 2011; so he’s got immense trade value. Several teams have already expressed an interest in him. What can the Eagles expect back in return? That’s entirely dependent on the team in question. Sheppard could be packaged with one or two of the Eagles draft picks for an upgrade at receiver (think Roy Williams or Larry Fitzgerald) OR he could be swapped for a pass rusher like Jared Allen. Is either move likely? NO, of course not. But possible? Certainly so.

The deadline for teams to apply the franchise or transition tag designations ended at 4:30 pm EST yesterday; so now it’s time to recap what happened and evaluate some of the moves (and non-moves).

Twelve (12) teams used the franchise tag designation:

• CB Nmandi Asomugha (Oakland)
• CB Marcus Trufant (Seattle)
• DE Jared Allen (Kansas City)
• DT Albert Haynesworth (Tennessee)
• DT Corey Williams (Green Bay)
• LB Karlos Dansby (Arizona)
• LB Terrell Suggs (Baltimore)
• OT Stacy Andrews (Cincinnati)
• OT Jordan Gross (Carolina)
• S Ken Hamlin (Dallas)
• TE Dallas Clark (Indianapolis)
• TE L.J. Smith (Philadelphia)

Most Surprising Tag: Stacy Andrews

Andrews played quite well last season, but it was his first year as a starter. The Bengals still have Levi Jones and Willie Anderson in the picture; although that may change now that Andrews has been tagged. Given the importance of Carson Palmer and Andrews’ age, the move isn’t a total shocker; although few outside of die hard Bengals fans expected it.

Most Surprising Non-Tag: Randy Moss 

As we discussed last night, not tagging Randy Moss is shocking only if they don’t already have a long-term deal completed; but unannounced until the February 29th start of free agency. We expect he IS under contract, but if this proves untrue, this may be the most shocking non-tag decision of the modern era.

Other Surprising Non-Tags 

• OT Flozell Adams (Dallas) – Adams is no spring chicken, and the Cowboys did use their tag on someone else (Ken Hamlin), but this is a bold move if the Cowboys don’t end up re-signing Adams. He has played at a high level the last few seasons and the team doesn’t have someone of his caliber (or close to it) currently on the roster. Will Jerry Jones be willing to go to battle with a young, unproven tackle in 2008?
• PK Josh Brown (Seattle) — The Seahawks tagged Brown last year and it was thought he could be tagged again this season; but now free agency looms. It’s never an easy decision to let a proven kicker walk, but perhaps they didn’t see the logic in making him the highest paid PK in the league.

Interesting Tag Minutiae

• Exclusive tag versus non-exclusive – As we discussed earlier this week, Nmandi Asomugha was tagged with an exclusive franchise designation, meaning the Raiders paid him more (the average of the 2008 top 5 projected salaries versus the 2007 in a normal tag) in exchange for keeping Asomugha from being able to negotiate with other teams. It’s telling that only one of twelve teams opted to use this tag; as it involves paying a player more yet brings less wiggle room. Why a team would pass up the idea of getting 2 first round picks if a team wants their free agent badly enough is a mystery (the Raiders would still have had the right to match).
• Is Suggs a linebacker or defensive end? — The Baltimore Ravens tagged Terrell Suggs as a linebacker, but he has filed a grievance contending he should be paid as a defensive end. The difference? About $800K for the one-year tender. This matter will be settled shortly (if Suggs lined up more than 50% of the snaps as an end, he’ll get his extra dough), but it’s odd that Suggs, who has gone to the Pro Bowl twice as a LINEBACKER would think of himself otherwise.

Most Likely to Sign a Long-term Deal: Dallas Clark

OK, this is cheating since Clark already signed a 6-year deal to remain with the Colts.

Least Likely to Sign a Long-term Deal:  L.J. Smith

The Eagles remain concerned about Smith’s health and likely won’t agree to a long-term extension without seeing improvement on the field. This is basically a one-year option to retain a talented, system TE in a very weak free agent market for tight ends.

How did we do in our predictions?

We previewed each division and our thoughts on potential tag candidates. Overall, I’d say we did quite well.

• We correctly predicted 9 of 10 ‘definites’; our only whiff was on Randy Moss
• We noted that Flozell Adams and Ken Hamlin were possibilities in Dallas [although we leaned toward Adams]
• We noted that Brown and Trufant were possibilities in Seattle [and leaned toward Trufant]
• We noted DT Corey Williams and WR Bernard Berrian as possible tags [one out of two]
• We suggested that Justin Smith shouldn’t be tagged

Now it’s onto free agency and the NFL draft!
Related Blogs:

• ‘Tis the Season for Tagging
• NFC East Potential Tag Candidates
• NFC North Potential Tag Candidates
• NFC South Potential Tag Candidates
• NFC West Potential Tag Candidates
• AFC East Potential Tag Candidates
• AFC North Potential Tag Candidates
• AFC South Potential Tag Candidates
• AFC West Potential Tag Candidates

Last month, Donovan McNabb made a plea for management to bring in more playmakers, citing the team’s 8-8 record and 4th place division finish:

Now that the season is over and we are concentrating on 2008, I hope we are able to secure some playmakers in all three phases of the game. Maybe some of those playmakers are already on the roster but have struggled with injuries, myself included, that have held us back a little.

You can’t argue with how the Patriots went outside their locker room and stocked up on playmakers last year. It certainly helped to have Randy Moss, Donte Stallworth, Wes Welker and Adalius Thomas making plays for them all year.

I’m surprised that anyone would have a problem with me, or anyone else in the organization, expressing a desire to bring in more quality players. We were 8-8. There is room for improvement. This is a competitive sport. It’s about putting together the best players, the best team, and giving yourself the best chance to win.

OK, as an Eagles season ticket holder I’m not going to pretend to be unbiased on this matter. On the surface, it’s hard to argue with McNabb’s statement. After all, the Eagles lacked impact playmakers on both sides of the ball. The team ranked poorly in big plays on offense, and didn’t force enough turnovers on defense. Certainly, all things being equal, I would like to see Philadelphia make some bold offseason maneuvers.

BUT…has McNabb looked in the mirror? Dos the buck stop with “5″? Rather than simply accept the perception that Philadelphia has a lack of playmakers on offense, I thought it might be worth putting some numbers together to see if the stats bear out McNabb’s contentions.

Yards After the Catch (YAC)

The ability of a receiver to generate yards after the catch is essential; particularly in a West Coast offense. To that end, the Eagles’ as a team generated 2,147 yards after the catch last season. That was the THIRD BEST TOTAL IN THE LEAGUE. In other words, McNabb’s receivers did a lot on their own once he got the ball into their hands. But that number (2,147 yards) doesn’t tell the whole story. Let’s look at what percentage of each team’s receiving yards came after the catch:

As you can see, the Eagles pass catchers generated nearly THREE FIFTHS of the team’s yards AFTER THE CATCH. Thinking of this another way, Donovan McNabb and the other Eagles’ QBs just didn’t get the ball downfield with regularity. So I ask, is it the receivers or McNabb that needs to improve?

Dropped Passes

Another key metric is dropped passes. Nothing is more frustrating for a QB than to put the ball where it needs to be only to have a receiver drop the ball. So have the Eagles been a victim of the drops?

On this front it seems McNabb may have a better argument. The Eagles receivers dropped 6.4% of the team’s attempts; among the worst in the league.

So what’s the verdict? The Eagles, like many teams, could always use more offensive playmakers. But this perception that Philly’s receiving corps is among the least impressive in the league simply isn’t accurate. Could it be better? Certainly. But a lot of the blame for the team’s lack of explosiveness in the passing game falls at the feet of McNabb and his backups.

Dallas Cowboys

Option 1: OT Flozell Adams

Flozell Adams is an unrestricted free agent and could garner a tag if the team feels his services are indispensable. Adams is a 4-time Pro Bowler and played at an extremely high level in 2007. But at 32 years old (he’ll be 33 in May), he’s not someone that is really in line to get a long-term deal. If he’s unwilling to accept a 3-year deal; the team may have no choice but to tag him.

Option 2: S Ken Hamlin

Ken Hamlin is the best safety available in free agency and helped solidify a former weak spot this year. Franchising a safety is less of an economic burden than tackle; but it’s arguably easier to replace a safety via the draft than it is to find another offensive book end.

New York Giants

The Giants are unlikely to use the tag designations this offseason. Their only major free agents (Gibril Wilson, Reggie Torbor and Kawika Mitchell) are worthy of contract extensions but it would be difficult to justify paying any of them money that equates to the best at their respective positions.

Philadelphia Eagles

TE L.J. Smith

The Eagles have assigned the franchise tag designation to L.J. Smith; guaranteeing him $4.5mm this season (if he signs the tender). Although Smith was injured for much of the 2007 season, tagging him makes imminent sense given the lack of attractive alternatives in free agency. The Eagles get a chance to evaluate Smith before deciding whether to extend him long-term, and in turn Smith gets top 5 money despite a disappointing 2007 season. A win/win.

Washington Redskins

Much like the Giants, it’s unlikely the Redskins will use their tag designations this offseason. The Redskins have no marquee free agents that would justify the financial commitment, and happen to be the only team projected to be signficantly over the salary cap entering free agency.

I’m all for the NFL owners openness to new coaching candidates. The idea that they’re no longer content to simply recycle the same old names over and over is refreshing, particularly in a year when there were only four head coaching vacancies (with Tony Dungy possibly providing a fifth).

But JOHN HARBAUGH?

Seriously?

For those who haven’t been paying attention to the Ravens coaching situation, they officially named John Harbaugh the team’s newest head coach, with a 4-year deal rumored to be in the $2mm per year range. Harbaugh was the Ravens backup plan after Jason Garrett turned down their offer earlier in the week.

I’m an Eagles season ticket holder and have to say I’m pretty stunned at this hire. Harbaugh was an Eagles assistant coach since 1998, and apparently his experience under Andy Reid; one of the most successful coaches of the decade, was a huge positive in the eyes of Ravens owner Steve Bisciotti. While I can understand the allure, I still have to wonder whether Harbaugh is ready for this challenge. Remember, the lion’s share of his NFL coaching resume was as a SPECIAL TEAMS coordinator. He was named the NFL Special Teams coach of the year in 2001; and frankly that reputation carried him over the last few seasons. As an Eagles fan, I can say with absolute certainty that the Eagles special teams has been anywhere from mediocre to downright terrible for years. It’s the one area where the team has needed massive improvement during most of the decade. This year, he took over as the secondary coach…but one has to wonder what kind of impact he really made. It’s a largely veteran secondary and the team continues to run the same system under long-time DC Jim Johnson.

To Ravens fans, I wish you luck. It wasn’t that long ago that people were lambasting the Eagles for hiring Andy Reid. At the time, Reid had never been an NFL coordinator and was best known as Brett Favre’s QB coach. The conventional wisdom was that Reid would be overmatched at the outset. Five NFC East titles later and we all know better. Maybe Harbaugh will be that next great coach who comes from an unconventional route. Or, as I suspect, this could end up being the head scratcher that so many of us think it is.

You are welcome to consider the following as analysis or entertainment, as you see fit.

WEEK 16 of the 2O06 SEASON
Seven kickers score in double digits in week 16 last year:
10 Matt Bryant in TB 22-7 victory at Cle
11 David Akers in Phi 23-7 victory at Dal
12 Rob Bironas in Ten 30-29 victory at Buf
12 John Carney in NO 30-7 victory at NYG
14 Neil Rackers in Ari 26-20 victory at SF
14 Robbie Gould in Chi 26-20 victory at Det
17 Rian Lindell in Buf 29-20 loss against Ten

6 of 7 of those games featured teams that ended up with similar records (Chi-Det being the exception)
6 of 7 of those kickers played for the visiting team (Lindell being the exception)
6 of 7 of those kickers played for the team that won (Lindell being the exception)

WEEK 16 of the 2007 SEASON
Who are the visiting kickers this week in matchups of teams with similar records?
Lawrence Tynes: 9-5 NYG at 7-7 Buf
David Akers: 6-8 Phi at 7-7 NO
John Carney: 4-10 KC at 6-8 Det
Shaun Suisham: 7-7 Was at 8-6 Min

OK, long-time Footballguys subscribers know I’m an Eagles fan and season ticket holder. While I’m disappointed with the way this season has unfolded, and respect the Patriots as much as the next guy, I was floored to see today’s point spread:

• 23.5 POINTS

Granted, the Eagles are likely without Donovan McNabb (there’s a surprise) and are on the road against arguably the most dominant team of the modern era. But according to ESPN, this is the LARGEST point spread in league history (ex-expansion teams). The Eagles are 5-5 and rank in the top 10 both offensively (6th) and defensively (7th) in the league.

Oh the humanity. While I highly doubt the Eagles can win the game; I surely hope they “shock the world” and reset expectations for just how dominant the Patriots are.

Eagles fans have long known that Brian Westbrook is as valuable, if not more valuable to the team than Donovan McNabb. Westbrook is a tried and true game-breaker, who has the rare ability to dominate from multiple positions on the field, and equally as a runner and receiver.

While his value is unquestioned, his durability (much like McNabb’s) has been.

Two weeks ago, Brian Westbrook missed an important divisional game against the Giants, and the Eagles lost the game 16-3. Westbrook’s absence was certainly not the only reason for the loss, but you would be hard pressed to find an Eagles fan who doesn’t think the team is wholly-different when Westbrook is healthy and in the lineup.

So that got me thinking, what kind of impact DOES Westbrook’s absence have on the Eagles offense? Westbrook became a fixture in the offense in 2003, which gives us 68 regular season games of data.

• 2003 — 16 team games, 1 missed by BW (Week 9)
• 2004 — 16 team games, 3 missed by BW (Weeks 8, 16-17)
• 2005 — 16 team games, 4 missed by BW (Weeks 14-17)
• 2006 — 16 team games, 1 missed by BW (Week 4)
• 2007 — 4 team games, 1 missed by BW (Week 4)
• TOTALS — 68 team games, 10 missed by BW

Here are the offensive numbers with, and without Westbrook in the lineup:

Somewhat surprisingly, the team’s rushing totals hardly change, save for the ability to punch it into the end zone. But that’s as much a byproduct of Andy Reid’s pass happy ways as anything. But take a look at Westbrook’s absence on the passing game; it’s dramatic. Despite throwing the ball as often, the team averaged 18% fewer passing yards and 40% fewer receiving TDs in Westbrook’s absence. Overall, the team generates 14% fewer yards, 12% fewer first downs and 30% fewer touchdowns.

The good news for Eagles fans like me is that Westbrook is practicing and should be back in the lineup this weekend. That’s bad news for Jets fans (like my good buddy and fellow staffer Chase Stuart) who are desperate not to fall to 1-5 but face the equally desperate and Westbrook-charged Eagles in Week Six.

Andy Reid was an offensive lineman in college; and has the body type to prove it. He’s also well schooled in the West Coast offense and has always put a premium on great pass protection. The core of the Eagles dominant NFC East run over the last seven years has been the offensive line; an area that Reid has had more hits than misses. Before McNabb was the 2nd pick, the Eagles brought aboard RT Jon Runyan to anchor a rebuilt line. Tra Thomas soon followed, and most recently the team has hit on guys like Jamaal Jackson, Todd Herremans and most importantly All Pro Shawn Andrews.

It’s with that backdrop that we saw an inexplicable display of ineptitude last night. For those who didn’t watch Sunday Night Football, the Eagles gave up twelve (yes…12!) sacks; an NFL record, to a New York Giants defense that struggled to stop anyone in its prior three games.

TWELVE SACKS…for a team that had allowed just 5 over the first three weeks.

The main reason for the debacle lies with 2nd year backup Winston Justice. With William “Tra” Thomas inactive last night, the Eagles turned to the former USC Trojan at left tackle. To say he was beaten like a rented mule would be an affront to mules everywhere.

While Justice’s struggles were startling, and likely make it all but impossible for him to start on the Eagles line anytime soon, if ever, the real problem gets back to Andy Reid and his coaching staff. How did they not make a change? How could they not commit a tight end and/or back to protect Justice? How do they not go to max protect?

Last time I checked, their franchise passer is coming off a torn ACL just ten months ago. And they let him get teed off on worse than any QB in league history?

As an Eagles fan, I can only hope that William Thomas is back in the lineup soon. But either way, it’s clear that when Thomas’ career comes to a close in a year or two, his replacement isn’t currently on the roster.

As a writer/analyst for Footballguys.com, I have the good fortune to be required to watch as many pro football games as is humanly possible. Every highlight show I can squeeze into Sunday. And so forth.

The above is what makes Monday Night Football such a true pleasure each week. With all day Monday to digest the Sunday action, and plenty of time to read about the featured game on Monday night, a person can go into the game dialed in and ready to really soak up just this one game! And what a great game this one looks like it should be, by the way!

Donovan McNabb shook some of the rust off last week and enters this game with a full complement of receivers (reports are that L.J. Smith’s groin has improved a lot since last week and he should be more involved in the game this week). The Redskins have a two back rotation (Portis/Betts) reminiscent of Joe Gibbs’ previous tenure/glory days with Washington, and they were highly effective week 1.

So, the aerial shenanigans of Andy Reid’s Eagles vs. the Gibbs’ grind-it-out Redskins in a divisional contest at Lincoln Financial Field - what joy, what rapture!

At least, football fans everywhere are hoping for a hard-fought, quality contest.

Enjoy MNF everyone!

Eagles fans (myself included) and fantasy owners have to be happy to hear that the roster appears 100% ready for this week’s game against Green Bay. While TE L.J. Smith is getting a lot of attention given his potential top-10 fantasy value; the news that LG Shawn Andrews is healthy is even better news for anyone that has Donovan McNabb, Brian Westbrook, Reggie Brown or Kevin Curtis.

What will help Mornhinweg and the Eagles is the return of tight end L.J. Smith (groin) and guard Shawn Andrews (ankle), who both had full participation in Wednesday’s and Thursday’s practices. After they missed the preseason with injuries, Mornhinweg expects them to not only be in the starting lineup on Sunday but to play at a high level.

Last season, Andrews and Smith’s run blocking abilities, especially late in the season when quarterback Donovan McNabb was on injured reserve with an ACL tear, propelled running back Brian Westbrook to his first 1,200-yard rushing campaign. Mornhinweg isn’t concerned with last year’s numbers, to him “it’s over with.”

Andrews has battled a high ankle sprain all preseason and some feared it was a far more debilitating injury. Andrews is not only the Eagles best offensive lineman, he was selected to the All Pro team last year as one of the league’s best interior lineman. His presence not only will help McNabb stay upright, but Andrews is the dominant run blocker on the line; which is essential if Westbrook is going to approximate last year’s 1,200+ yards rushing.

Following on on what Jason Wood said, I have some more thoughts on the Detroit Lions RB situation.

Kevin Jones will begin the season on the PuP list. This means he will miss the first five games of the season leaving Bell as the unquestioned starter for a third of the season. That is great for Bell owners, isn’t it?

Who will the Lions play in those five games? Tatum will start versus the Oakland Raiders, Minnesota Vikings, Philadelphia Eagles, Chicago Bears, and Washington Redskins. The Bears and Vikings were two of the top teams versus the run in 2006.

The thing about Bell is his inconsistency with carries and production. Even though Tatum finished with 233 carries in thirteen games, he only had six games with more than 18 carries. And, he had five games with over one hundred rushing yards and five games under fifty rushing yards.

Tatum Bell is a good RB to have on your team. The tough part comes on whether you feel comfortable starting him over another viable RB with this schedule.