Now that the NFL Draft is in the books, we are standing on the cusp of the NFL preseason. During the coming weeks, rookie mini-camps will grind into gear and hard-core fantasy owners will start the process of evaluating this year’s draft picks potential for “instant impact” during 2008. In redraft fantasy football leagues, one key requirement for the kind of production that fantasy owners crave is opportunity. A player like TE Martellus Bennett (a 2nd-round selection by Dallas) may have all the talent in the world, but his chances for a meaningful 2008 season in fantasy terms are very slight due to being buried on the depth chart behind All-Pro TE Jason Witten.

The below is a preliminary list of the top rookie prospects for redraft fantasy leagues, given their new NFL homes.

Rookie Running Backs

The running back position is where the fantasy gems among the rookies are most likely to be found. While it is true that for every Adrian Peterson (Minnesota) or Joseph Addai one can point at, there are also players like J.J. Arrington or Chris Perry who serve as a counter-examples, it is also true that running backs tend to make the quickest transition to playing at the NFL level. A fantasy owner is most likely to find an “instant impact” player among the rookie running backs in any given calendar year.

Jonathan Stewart is probably the best bet at running back to generate fantasy impact during his rookie season. He is the sort of running back that the Panthers’ coaching staff prefers, and they have been retooling their offensive line for a power running attack - Stewart fits the mold that Carolina is built to utilize. DeAngelo Williams simply isn’t the player the coaching staff wants to rely on as their #1 RB - he is better suited to a change-of-pace, 3rd-down role in their scheme. Stewart figures to have plenty of touches on the ball with the Panthers this year.

Darren McFadden is a boom-or-bust type prospect. Yes, he has the type of speed and top gear that make him a threat to go to the house on every down, and he projects to be the starter with the Raiders (assuming his contract negotiations go well and he avoids a JaMarcus Russell-type holdout scenario). However, there is a crowded RB stable in Oakland, with Justin Fargas coming off a 1000+ yard season - if McFadden struggles with the pro game, he may not get many chances to redeem himself.

Kevin Smith lands with the Lions, who really like his game and seem to be indicating that the starting job is his to lose during 2008. We’ll see if their actions match their draft-day rhetoric - but Tatum Bell hasn’t looked like the answer since he arrived in Detroit, and as of today, he is the only other back of note on the team. If Smith impresses in training camp it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him starting for the Lions in September.

Matt Forte comes into a by-committee backfield situation, with both Cedric Benson and Adrian Peterson grinding out 3.4 yards per carry last season. Peterson was far more productive than Benson in the passing game (51/420/0 receiving vs. 17/123/0) and actually led the team in total yardage and fantasy points at the RB position last year. Benson has greatly underperformed his draft slot (1st round -4th pick in 2005) and may find himself riding the pine if Forte proves that he outperform Benson during training camp.

Rashard Mendenhall is likely to be Willie Parker’s primary backup for this year, but given Parker’s difficulty at the goal-line last year (321/1316/2 rushing), Mendenhall could find a role as the Steelers’ goal-line back (Najeh Davenport gained 107/499/5 rushing and 18/184/2 as the Steelers’ big back/change of pace back last year). If Mendenhall seals the #2 job with Pittsburgh, he could have value in basic scoring leagues (any league where TD production is the primary scoring criteria).

Felix Jones joins fellow rookie Tashard Choice as the new backups to Marion Barber III. Barber looks set to carry the majority of the load for Dallas, but Jones’ outside speed will give him a shot to earn playing time as the 3rd down back/passing down back - depending on how quickly Jones picks up the Cowboys’ offense and learns to pick up the blitz.

Rookie Wide Receivers

Second to the running backs, rookie WRs occasionally step into the NFL and make fantasy owners’ seasons. The most obvious example of this phenomenon would be Randy Moss’s first incredible season (69/1313/17) with Minnesota (he was the #1 fantasy WR as a rookie) - Larry Fitzgerald’s 58/780/8 as a rookie was also pretty outstanding for a rookie WR (30th best fantasy WR during 2004). However, it is far more often the case that rookie WRs bust (especially in their first season of NFL action). The last time I fell hard for a rookie WR’s potential, I ended up having Rashaun Woods among my preseason top 36 fantasy prospects - only to watch him fail miserably at the NFL level. Now-a-days, it is my rule of thumb that exactly zero rookie WRs land among my top 40 or so fantasy prospects until they have proven their skills extensively in training camp and preseason games - and even then I tend to be conservative about drafting them early - I would urge fantasy owners to be very leery of rookie wideouts.

James Hardy appears to have landed in the best situation among the draftees, with a legitimate shot at capturing the #2 wide receiver position on the Buffalo Bills. Other than Lee Evans, the Bills’ WRs generated 1 receiving TD last year (Josh Reed was #2 in yardage with 51/578/0) - not exactly what the coaching staff was looking for, to say the least. However, don’t go overboard with your enthusiasm for Hardy - the Bills were 30th in the NFL when it came to passing offense, so his ceiling as the #2 WR (if he gets that far) is relatively low compared to a player on a franchise like New England.

DeSean Jackson figures to be in the mix in Philadelphia, but the team spreads the ball around quite a bit - the 2nd best receiver on the Eagles over the past two years failed to get over 800 yards receiving or score more than 5 times, and the players at WR3 and below are non-factors in fantasy terms.

Devin Thomas may challenge for playing time in Washington, but with a developing young QB in Jason Campbell and an entrenched #1 WR in Santana Moss combined with a high-scoring TE hogging red-zone chances (Chris Cooley has 6 or more TDs in each of his first 4 seasons) - Thomas will have significant obstacles to overcome before he starts putting up the kind of statistics that make fantasy owners excited.

Malcolm Kelly - see Devin Thomas above.

Jerome Simpson landed with Cincinnati while the Bengals are searching for a replacement WR3 - if he can wow the coaching staff in training camp and sew up the WR3 spot, he could put up decent numbers now and then during 2008.

Rookie Quarterbacks

Excepting Peyton Manning , the exception who proves the rule, no rookie QB has been a fantasy standout during recent memory - even Dan Marino took one season to get up to speed before exploding during his second campaign way back in 1984. Unless you are convinced that Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco or any of the other draftees this year are of the caliber of a Peyton Manning or a Dan Marino, you should probably pass on them during your redraft league’s annual draft.

Matt Ryan will likely get his chance to start during 2008, perhaps early on in the season if Chris Redman falters during training camp. Ryan is sure to suffer typical rookie growing pains once he does get into the lineup, so he probably won’t have any games worth mentioning until very late in the season, if then.

Joe Flacco may be the heir apparent in Baltimore, but he’s currently buried behind Kyle Boller and Troy Smith (last year’s draft pick at the position). The Ravens got burned the last time they rushed a QB into the starting lineup (witness Boller’s checkered career with Baltimore) - they aren’t likely to make the same mistake with Flacco. He’ll likely carry the clipboard after preseason, with occasional spot duty in blow out wins or losses.

Rookie Tight Ends

Rookie tight ends are very seldom worth drafting - Tony Gonzalez scored 2 TDs in his rookie campaign (33/368/2), as did Antonio Gates (24/389/2), as did the ultra-hyped rookie TE of 2007, Greg Olsen (39/391/2). The three above examples are actually best-case scenarios for the vast majority of rookie TEs - the position is very demanding at the pro level and it simply takes more than 1 training camp and regular season to absorb all the duties that are asked of a pro TE. Among the 2008 draftees, expect 300+ and 1-2 TDs to be a ceiling when you are crafting your projections.

New Seahawk John Carlson will battle Jeb Putzier for playing time during 2008, and could end up starting for Seattle sooner rather than later. He is the TE prospect who landed in the best situation (such as it is) from the fantasy perspective.

Dustin Keller arrives to the Jets via a first round pick, but he’ll have to earn his way into the starting lineup - solid-but-unspectacular Chris Baker has scored 4 TDs in 2 of the past 4 seasons, and posted 41/409/3 last year. Keller will have the opportunity to learn the position from Baker and another veteran TE, Bubba Franks, this season. Keller is a guy to watch as the year progresses - he might be worth a flyer in free agency late in the season (just before fantasy playoffs) if he manages to earn playing time during 2008.

The NFL Draft is an exciting time of year for football junkies, but it is just the beginning of a long process. Don’t let your draft weekend enthusiasm drown out your better judgement as you prepare your preliminary draft lists for 2008. We have yet to get an inkling who among the draftees will fulfill their promise, which ones will outperform expectations - and how many will go bust in their first season as a pro football players.

2.32: Phillip Merling, DE, Miami Dolphins

Pass rusher had some injury woes but was effective off the edge when healthy. Has the size (6′5″, 272 pounds) that Bill Parcells covets. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.33: Donnie Avery, WR, St. Louis Rams

Quite a surprise. The first WR off the board is a small, uber fast guy considered a mid round pick by most scouts. Hard to believe he can replace Isaac Bruce without a few years of seasoning. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.34: Devin Thomas, WR, Washington Redskins (via Oakland through Atlanta)

The Redskins draft the WR many expected to be first off the WR board. Devin Thomas only had one big year at Michigan but has great size (6′2″, 215 pounds) and can also help as a kickoff returner. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.35: Brandon Flowers, CB, Kansas City Chiefs

If Flowers ran a tenth of a second faster, he would’ve been a mid 1st rounder. Great choice for the rebuilding Chiefs. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.36: Jordy Nelson, WR, Green Bay Packers (via New York Jets)

Another surprising WR selection. Was WR really a need for Green Bay with Driver, Jennings and Jones on the roster? Should help on special teams right away. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.37: Curtis Lofton, LB, Atlanta Falcons

Tackling machine, ideally suited for the inside where he can flow downfield to the ball. Not someone good in space and must be put in the right scheme to succeed. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.38: John Carlson, TE, Seattle Seahawks (via Baltimore)

Mike Holmgren called this a need, and the ‘hawks felt Carlson was a perfect fit for their West Coast offense. Carlson put up big numbers with Brady Quinn under center, as a reminder. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.39: Chilo Rachal, OG, San Francisco 49ers

Rachal gets knocked for not being a great athlete, but he’s technically sound and has a mean streak. As long as he plays inside and isn’t asked to pull and extend to the 2nd level much, he could be a starter immediately. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.40: Tracy Porter, CB, New Orleans Saints

Ironic that the Saints draft a cornerback with the 40th pick; considering there were rumors all week that the 40th pick would be part of a package to acquire Eagles CB Lito Sheppard. Porter is good at tracking the ball but isn’t a sure tackler or much help supporting the run.

2.41: James Hardy, WR, Buffalo Bills

The Bills landed the top corner in the draft last round and, in my opinion, the best receiver in the draft at 2.41. Hardy is a big guy who isn’t afraid of contact. He goes up for the ball and runs good routes; which helps offset a lack of breakaway speed.

2.42: Eddie Royal, WR, Denver Broncos

Royal is one of a handful of receivers who also project as solid returner at the next level. At only 5′8″, 184 pounds, Royal will need to prove he can hold up as a receiver over the course of the season. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.43: Tyrell Johnson, S, Minnesota Vikings (via Carolina through Philadelphia)

Kenny Phillips has the bigger name, but Johnson may have the bigger game. The Vikes continue to bolster their defense with another solid young, physical player. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.44: Matt Forte, RB, Chicago Bears

I’m not crazy about Forte; I don’t believe he’s a special back nor was he the best back left on the board. However, Forte has his supporters and it’s not inconceivable he could earn the starting gig over Cedric Benson sooner rather than later.

2.45: Jordon Dizon, OLB, Detroit Lions

Dizon lacks ideal size and speed; but like many solid NFL linebackers before him, he just makes plays. He’s instinctive and a sound tackler; exactly the kind of guy Rod Marinelli can build around. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.46: Jerome Simpson, WR, Cincinnati Bengals

Further proof that beauty is in the eye of the beholder at WR this year. Simpson wasn’t close to the best WR prospect on the board, but clearly the Bengals felt otherwise. At least, this pick fills a need given the release of Chris Henry and concerns about Chad Johnson’s status.

2.47: Trevor Laws, DT, Philadelphia Eagles (via Minnesota)

The Eagles finally make a pick, and it’s clearly a “best player available” selection. Defensive tackle was hardly a major need, but Laws is a high character, high motor guy who will add depth to an already young tackle rotation.

2.48: Fred Davis, TE, Washington Redskins (via Houston through Atlanta)

The Redskins are committed to getting QB Jason Campbell weapons. First Devin Thomas and now a pass-receiving tight end a few picks later. Davis doesn’t project into an elite tight end, but the Redskins don’t need him to be given the presence of Chris Cooley.

2.49: DeSean Jackson, WR/KR, Philadelphia Eagles

Many Birds fans wouldn’t have complained if Jackson was the pick in the 1st round. So to trade down, grab a 2009 1st rounder as compensation and get DeSean anyway was a coup. He’s tiny (169 pounds) but is blazing fast and unstoppable in the open field. He instantly gives the Eagles the best returner they’ve had in 5 years.

2.50: Calais Campbell, DE, Arizona Cardinals

You don’t find many 6′8″, 280 pound ends; yet Campbell fell into the 2nd round because of an uneven 2007 season. He was a stud in 2006 and, as long as the Cards play him at the right position, should combine with free agent Clark Haggans to improve the Cards pass rush.

2.51: Malcolm Kelly, WR, Washington Redskins

Sure, he’s slower than you would like. But have teams watched this kid play? He’s a polished route runner, has great hands and excellent body control. Very reminiscent of the year Chad Johnson fell because of his slow 40-time; the Skins got a steal.

2.52: Quentin Groves, DE, Jacksonville Jaguars (via Tampa Bay)

The Jags have a stifling defense already, but they aren’t great at putting pressure on opposing QBs. Adding Quentin Groves in the 2nd after taking Derrick Harvey 8th overall goes a long way to changing the Jags pass rush. Groves character issues aside, this was a solid pick.

2.53: Limas Sweed, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers

Some scouts love Sweed, some see him as a bust. At 53rd overall, the Steelers aren’t risking a lot financially to find out if he’s the next Plaxico Burress. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.54: Jason Jones, DE, Tennessee Titans

Jones could replace Antwan Odom right away, but he’s a bit raw to expect that. Eventually the Titans see Jones as a capable 2-way end in their 4-3 defense. His skill set is more suited to defensive tackle, but his size projects him as an end.

2.55: Ray Rice, RB, Baltimore Ravens (via Seattle)

Ray Rice is a local product who was wildly productive as the main ball carrier for Rutgers. While he lacks prototypical size, his low center of gravity and style make him more than capable of being an every down back if needed.

2.56: Brian Brohm, QB, Green Bay Packers (via Cleveland)

Now that’s kind of surprising. Or is it? The Pack took Aaron Rodgers in the 1st when Brett Favre was under center, so why wouldn’t they take the most accurate QB prospect in the 2nd round given Rodgers inexperience? Worst case, he’s a backup for a few years. Best case, he outplays Rodgers and ends up starting in a year or two.

2.57: Chad Henne, QB, Miami Dolphins (via San Diego)

How about that? It looks like Jake Long may be blocking for Chad Henne for a few more years. Another smart pick. He could easily outplay Beck and McCown to win the job; at the very lesaet he’s a big armed, young backup for a good price.

2.58: Dexter Jackson, WR/KR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (via Jacksonville)

This was a reach pick. While Jackson is another potentially dangerous return man; he needs a lot of maturing as a route runner before he can reasonably play WR on a regular basis. Blistering speed (4.33) though and dangerous in the open field.

2.59: Mike Pollak, OG/C, Indianapolis Colts

A classic Colts pick. Their only 1st day pick and it’s a fundamentally sound center that they project as a starting offensive guard for now and possibly a replacement for Jeff Saturday later. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.60: Patrick Lee, DB, Green Bay Packers

A hard worker, Lee may someday start at corner but not for a few seasons. In the meantime, he can be a force on special teams and perhaps play nickel back particularly in run support situations. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.61: Martellus Bennett, TE, Dallas Cowboys

I like this pick more than most. For my money, Bennett was the top TE in this draft. He’s huge, is a good blocker who can become great, and should be a key red zone target given his height and willingness to go up for the ball. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.62: Terrence Wheatley, CB, New England Patriots

The Pats always seem to find value and this was no exception. Wheatley is a legitimate shutdown cover corner who, were it not for myriad injuries in college, would’ve been in the hunt for a top 15 selection. Either way, he’ll help the Pats on defense and special teams.

2.63: Terrell Thomas, CB, New York Giants

Thomas is the 217th USC Trojan to be drafted in the first two rounds (not really, just feels that way). If the Giants view him as a corner, I don’t like this pick. But if they’re going to try to convert him to safety; where his deficiencies can be obfuscated somewhat, the choice makes more sense.

The Cowboys are getting aggressive. The Boys moved back into the 1st round just a few picks after selecting Felix Jones to focus on defensive this time around. South Florida CB Mike Jenkins was the pick; which certainly makes sense relative to who was left on the defensive back pre-draft rankings. Jenkins was inconsistent on film, sometimes looking like a potential Pro Bowl shutdown corner, at other times he’s looked bad enough to not be taken on the first day. Not surprisingly, coaches will focus on the good film and tell themselves they can teach him to stop making the mistakes that show up on the bad film.

Fantasy Impact: Not much. The Cowboys already had their corner position solidified with the acquisition of Pacman Jones. This probably means Anthony Henry will move to center in training camp; and it also gives the Cowboys leverage when Terence Newman’s contract comes up next year.

Jerry Jones is a noted Arkansas alum and, because of that, most mock drafts had him taking RB Felix Jones with the 22nd pick. As it turns out, the mocks got it exactly right. Jones averaged more than 8 yards per carry playing as a key backup to Darren McFadden and has elite speed. The Cowboys will look for Jones to spell Marion Barber.

Fantasy Impact: As long as Marion Barber is healthy, Felix Jones won’t be a major fantasy force. But he is talented, has fresh legs and has an extra gear that Barber does not. In redrafts, Jones is no more than a late round pick; however dynasty owners may want to consider him particularly as a handcuff to Barber.

That didn’t take long…

…just a day after signing Michael “The Burner” Turner to a monster free agent contract, the Falcons released Warrick Dunn.

The 33-year old tailback will have little trouble finding work elsewhere; particularly if he’s willing to accept a role as a backup and situational contributor on a contending team.

Possible Landing Spots?

It’s never too early to handicap where Dunn might land, here are five teams that make imminent sense in our minds:

1. Indianapolis Colts — The Colts don’t have a reliable backup on the roster, and Dunn would be a perfect complement to Joseph Addai. He likely would accept a lesser role on the Colts because they are among a handful of Super Bowl contenders. Given his prior relationship with Tony Dungy when they were in Tampa Bay; this situation almost seems too logical to be true. Update: OK, it seems I may have sold Kenton Keith short. He had a solid 2007 season with 533 yards (4.4 YPC), 13 receptions and 4 total TDs.
2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Jon Gruden is no stranger to veteran contributors and Dunn has strong ties to the Tampa area from his days as a Buc. The Bucs would probably have to make a bigger financial commitment to Dunn than the Colts would, simply because of the less certain playoff outlook.
3. Detroit Lions – Kevin Jones may not be ready for the start of the season, and the Lions have virtually no one ready to step in and play. This is one of the few places Dunn could conceivably earn big playing time; and HC Rod Marinelli is a Dunn fan from their days in Tampa.
4. Dallas Cowboys — The Cowboys never seem to shy away from aging veterans and Jerry Jones could easily view Dunn as a solid backup and complement to Marion Barber; who is slated for a heavier workload in 2008 with the departure of Julius Jones.
5. Tennessee Titans — Pairing Dunn with LenDale White could be an interesting one-two punch. Dunn’s veteran presence, work ethic and his commitment to blocking would serve as great examples for White and fellow youngster Chris Henry. It’s unclear whether the Titans are open to adding someone 11 years into the league; but if they are, Dunn could be a nice two-year answer.

Where do you think Dunn will land? Do you think he’ll have any tangible fantasy value in 2008? Let’s hear your thoughts in our discussion forum.

The premier free agent offensive tackle is off the market, as Flozell Adams has re-signed with the Dallas Cowboys for a reported 6-year, $42 million deal with $15mm in guarantees. Adams has been a Pro Bowler in four of the last five seasons and anchors an offensive line that helped the Cowboys field one of the most explosive (and balanced) offenses in the league. Adams was a candidate for the Cowboys franchise tag, but they opted to tag safety Ken Hamlin instead. They obviously bet that Adams would give them first dibs at signing him; and the Cowboys gamble was rewarded.

With Jordan Gross (Carolina) and Stacy Andrews (Cincinnati) franchised and now Adams signed; there are really no top caliber options in free agency for teams needing tackle help.

So who benefits from this deal?

• Adams — the man gets his $$$$
• The Cowboys — they keep their best offensive lineman intact
• Maurice Williams, Wayne Gandy, Fred Miller and the other free agent tackles — Supply and demand at play
• Jake Long — the pre-eminent college tackle should now be assured of a top 5 position in April

The deadline for teams to apply the franchise or transition tag designations ended at 4:30 pm EST yesterday; so now it’s time to recap what happened and evaluate some of the moves (and non-moves).

Twelve (12) teams used the franchise tag designation:

• CB Nmandi Asomugha (Oakland)
• CB Marcus Trufant (Seattle)
• DE Jared Allen (Kansas City)
• DT Albert Haynesworth (Tennessee)
• DT Corey Williams (Green Bay)
• LB Karlos Dansby (Arizona)
• LB Terrell Suggs (Baltimore)
• OT Stacy Andrews (Cincinnati)
• OT Jordan Gross (Carolina)
• S Ken Hamlin (Dallas)
• TE Dallas Clark (Indianapolis)
• TE L.J. Smith (Philadelphia)

Most Surprising Tag: Stacy Andrews

Andrews played quite well last season, but it was his first year as a starter. The Bengals still have Levi Jones and Willie Anderson in the picture; although that may change now that Andrews has been tagged. Given the importance of Carson Palmer and Andrews’ age, the move isn’t a total shocker; although few outside of die hard Bengals fans expected it.

Most Surprising Non-Tag: Randy Moss 

As we discussed last night, not tagging Randy Moss is shocking only if they don’t already have a long-term deal completed; but unannounced until the February 29th start of free agency. We expect he IS under contract, but if this proves untrue, this may be the most shocking non-tag decision of the modern era.

Other Surprising Non-Tags 

• OT Flozell Adams (Dallas) – Adams is no spring chicken, and the Cowboys did use their tag on someone else (Ken Hamlin), but this is a bold move if the Cowboys don’t end up re-signing Adams. He has played at a high level the last few seasons and the team doesn’t have someone of his caliber (or close to it) currently on the roster. Will Jerry Jones be willing to go to battle with a young, unproven tackle in 2008?
• PK Josh Brown (Seattle) — The Seahawks tagged Brown last year and it was thought he could be tagged again this season; but now free agency looms. It’s never an easy decision to let a proven kicker walk, but perhaps they didn’t see the logic in making him the highest paid PK in the league.

Interesting Tag Minutiae

• Exclusive tag versus non-exclusive – As we discussed earlier this week, Nmandi Asomugha was tagged with an exclusive franchise designation, meaning the Raiders paid him more (the average of the 2008 top 5 projected salaries versus the 2007 in a normal tag) in exchange for keeping Asomugha from being able to negotiate with other teams. It’s telling that only one of twelve teams opted to use this tag; as it involves paying a player more yet brings less wiggle room. Why a team would pass up the idea of getting 2 first round picks if a team wants their free agent badly enough is a mystery (the Raiders would still have had the right to match).
• Is Suggs a linebacker or defensive end? — The Baltimore Ravens tagged Terrell Suggs as a linebacker, but he has filed a grievance contending he should be paid as a defensive end. The difference? About $800K for the one-year tender. This matter will be settled shortly (if Suggs lined up more than 50% of the snaps as an end, he’ll get his extra dough), but it’s odd that Suggs, who has gone to the Pro Bowl twice as a LINEBACKER would think of himself otherwise.

Most Likely to Sign a Long-term Deal: Dallas Clark

OK, this is cheating since Clark already signed a 6-year deal to remain with the Colts.

Least Likely to Sign a Long-term Deal:  L.J. Smith

The Eagles remain concerned about Smith’s health and likely won’t agree to a long-term extension without seeing improvement on the field. This is basically a one-year option to retain a talented, system TE in a very weak free agent market for tight ends.

How did we do in our predictions?

We previewed each division and our thoughts on potential tag candidates. Overall, I’d say we did quite well.

• We correctly predicted 9 of 10 ‘definites’; our only whiff was on Randy Moss
• We noted that Flozell Adams and Ken Hamlin were possibilities in Dallas [although we leaned toward Adams]
• We noted that Brown and Trufant were possibilities in Seattle [and leaned toward Trufant]
• We noted DT Corey Williams and WR Bernard Berrian as possible tags [one out of two]
• We suggested that Justin Smith shouldn’t be tagged

Now it’s onto free agency and the NFL draft!
Related Blogs:

• ‘Tis the Season for Tagging
• NFC East Potential Tag Candidates
• NFC North Potential Tag Candidates
• NFC South Potential Tag Candidates
• NFC West Potential Tag Candidates
• AFC East Potential Tag Candidates
• AFC North Potential Tag Candidates
• AFC South Potential Tag Candidates
• AFC West Potential Tag Candidates

Dallas Cowboys

Option 1: OT Flozell Adams

Flozell Adams is an unrestricted free agent and could garner a tag if the team feels his services are indispensable. Adams is a 4-time Pro Bowler and played at an extremely high level in 2007. But at 32 years old (he’ll be 33 in May), he’s not someone that is really in line to get a long-term deal. If he’s unwilling to accept a 3-year deal; the team may have no choice but to tag him.

Option 2: S Ken Hamlin

Ken Hamlin is the best safety available in free agency and helped solidify a former weak spot this year. Franchising a safety is less of an economic burden than tackle; but it’s arguably easier to replace a safety via the draft than it is to find another offensive book end.

New York Giants

The Giants are unlikely to use the tag designations this offseason. Their only major free agents (Gibril Wilson, Reggie Torbor and Kawika Mitchell) are worthy of contract extensions but it would be difficult to justify paying any of them money that equates to the best at their respective positions.

Philadelphia Eagles

TE L.J. Smith

The Eagles have assigned the franchise tag designation to L.J. Smith; guaranteeing him $4.5mm this season (if he signs the tender). Although Smith was injured for much of the 2007 season, tagging him makes imminent sense given the lack of attractive alternatives in free agency. The Eagles get a chance to evaluate Smith before deciding whether to extend him long-term, and in turn Smith gets top 5 money despite a disappointing 2007 season. A win/win.

Washington Redskins

Much like the Giants, it’s unlikely the Redskins will use their tag designations this offseason. The Redskins have no marquee free agents that would justify the financial commitment, and happen to be the only team projected to be signficantly over the salary cap entering free agency.

We knew it was inevitable, but today it became official. Tony Sparano is the Miami Dolphins new head coach. Most know that Sparano spent four seasons with Parcells in Dallas, but they may not be aware of his prior NFL stops.

• 1999-2000: Offensive Quality Control, Cleveland Browns

Sparano got his NFL start under Chris Palmer with the expansion Browns.  An offensive quality control coach is basically the low man on the totem pole, and their job is to basically do anything the head coach, OC and other assistants ask of them.

The Bad News: The Browns were an offensive abomination in both 1999 and 2000; ranking dead last in both yards and points. Sparano wasn’t witness to offensive genius in his first gig.

The Good News: Palmer, the Browns head coach, has long been a favorite of Parcells; and even though the Browns didn’t have a lot of success, there’s no doubt Parcells would trust a recommendation from Palmer when looking for coaches in Big D.

• 2001: Tight Ends Coach, Washington Redskins

Sparano landed on his feet with his first positional coaching job in 2001, under new Redskins head coach Marty Schottenheimer. Unfortunately, Schottenheimer’s run in D.C. was limited to one season and, as a result, Sparano would find himself looking for work yet again after the 2001 season.

The Bad News: Schottenheimer was “one and done” and the Redskins offense ranked just 28th in the league. The Redskins tight ends were a mixed bag, with Zeron Flemister leading the way with 18 catches, 196 yards and 2 TDs.

The Good News: Sparano got to see one of the league’s most successful coaches at work, and actually got high marks in terms of getting reasonably good production out of the collection of TEs.

• 2002: Tight Ends Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars

Sparano moves on to Jacksonville under Tom Coughlin. Again, he’s star crossed as the Jaguars fire Coughlin at season’s end and Jack Del Rio doesn’t choose to retain Sparano.

The Bad News: Coughlin gets bounced after the 2002 season, meaning Sparano is AGAIN looking for work. The Jaguars finish the season 6-10 and their offensive numbers fail to crack the top 20.

The Good News: The tight ends were a bright light in an otherwise moribund passing attack. Kyle Brady and Pete Mitchell combine for 68 receptions, 707 yards and 6 TDs. Putting those numbers in perspective, they represented 25% of the team’s receptions, 23% of the team’s receiving yards and 33% of the team’s passing TDs.

• 2003-2007: Tight Ends/Offensive Line/Assistant Head Coach, Dallas Cowboys

Bill Parcells hires Sparano in 2003, and his role expands over Parcells’ four-year tenure. He ends up as the team’s co-offensive coordinator, assistant head coach, and offensive line coach. His work was so impressive, that he remains in place under new head coach Wade Phillips in 2007. Although he doesn’t have play-calling input in 2007, his work on the offensive line is considered a key to the Cowboys 13-3 season.

The Bad News: Sparano’s role appears to take a back seat in 2007 after a rising star under Parcells. Jason Garrett comes in and asserts control of the play-calling; leaving Sparano to focus on the offensive line.

The Good News: Sparano wouldn’t have the Dolphins head coaching job if not for his work in Dallas. He clearly earned Parcells’ trust and respect, and managed to stay in Dallas despite a coaching change. The Cowboys offense grew from mediocrity to elite during his tenure, and the offensive line and running game were both bright spots.

It should come as no surprise that Tony Sparano is, by all accounts, on the verge of being named the Dolphins new head coach. According to several reports, GM Jeff Ireland took one of Wayne Huizenga’s private jets to Dallas today to pick up Sparano and make the hiring official after weeks of conjecture.

Sparano’s name surfaced almost immediately after Bill Parcells took over football operations. Sparano, who held the title of Assistant Head Coach/Offensive Line in Dallas this year was a holdover from Parcells’ staff. In 2006, he was the co-coordinator with Todd Haley, and was heavily involved in the play-calling.

Whether this is a sound hire or not, time will tell. But its one that fits into the Parcells mold. Sparano is a tough guy by reputation, believes in a punishing ground attack and controlling the time of possession. And he certainly is a known commodity for both Parcells and the Dolphins GM Jeff Ireland.

Will he or won’t he?

As expected, the Baltimore Ravens have made Jason Garrett an offer to replace Brian Billick as head coach. And, equally as expected, Jerry Jones is trying desperately to get some time with Garrett to convince him to stay in Dallas. Wouldn’t we all like to be a fly on the wall right now?

From various and sundry sources, we’re hearing:

• Garrett’s wife came to Baltimore with him and has been touring the city and looking at real estate today
• Garrett has apparently presented a comprehensive list of assistant coaches, alleged to include Cam Cameron and Dom Capers
• Jerry Jones has promised to match any financial offer from Baltimore, but it’s unclear whether he is willing to promise Garrett the head coaching job in 2008
• Baltimore (understandably) wants an answer before he leaves the city

As I said yesterday, Dallas could be the fly in the ointment. But if Baltimore is insisting on Garrett’s decision before he leaves town, that removes a lot of Jones’ leverage. If Garrett genuinely has two former NFL head coaches lined up as his coordinators, I can’t imagine he will say NO unless Jerry Jones somehow promises him the head coaching job in 2008.

Patrick Crayton signed a 4-year, $14mm contract extension that includes $6mm in guarantees. It’s curious timing for someone who would’ve been a free agent in a matter of a few months; but was likely a smart move for both sides. The Cowboys keep Crayton from the open market, where a number of suitors (Bill Parcells anyone?) would’ve looked hard at him as a full-time starter; and in turn Crayton gets a sizable contract despite the very real possibility of being the Cowboys WR3 next season.

You are welcome to consider the following as analysis or entertainment, as you see fit.

WEEK 16 of the 2O06 SEASON
Seven kickers score in double digits in week 16 last year:
10 Matt Bryant in TB 22-7 victory at Cle
11 David Akers in Phi 23-7 victory at Dal
12 Rob Bironas in Ten 30-29 victory at Buf
12 John Carney in NO 30-7 victory at NYG
14 Neil Rackers in Ari 26-20 victory at SF
14 Robbie Gould in Chi 26-20 victory at Det
17 Rian Lindell in Buf 29-20 loss against Ten

6 of 7 of those games featured teams that ended up with similar records (Chi-Det being the exception)
6 of 7 of those kickers played for the visiting team (Lindell being the exception)
6 of 7 of those kickers played for the team that won (Lindell being the exception)

WEEK 16 of the 2007 SEASON
Who are the visiting kickers this week in matchups of teams with similar records?
Lawrence Tynes: 9-5 NYG at 7-7 Buf
David Akers: 6-8 Phi at 7-7 NO
John Carney: 4-10 KC at 6-8 Det
Shaun Suisham: 7-7 Was at 8-6 Min

As you might imagine, I’m in a lot of leagues. In TEN of them, I had the good fortune to draft Tony Romo and, in most, made the playoffs as a result. While Romo hasn’t been Tom Brady, he’s been awfully good and considering he came in the 7th or 8th round of most 10- team drafts; he’s arguably one of the most valuable players of the season.

But as any veteran fantasy owner knows, once the fantasy playoffs roll around, your only as good as your last game.

Thanks to Tony Romo; I’m now pretty crappy.

• 13 completions
• 36 attempts
• 36.1% completion percentage
• 214 yards
• 0 TDs
• 3 INTs
• 9.3 fantasy points [using FBG scoring]

NOTHING is more painful than having one or more of your fantasy studs lay a goose egg in the playoffs. For those playing at home (and I know a lot of you are!)…Romo was outscored by TWENTY THREE (23) other QBs this week, including such “studs” as:

• Chad Pennington, NYJ
• Matt Moore, CAR
• Josh McCown, OAK
• Brodie Croyle, KC
• Cleo Lemon, MIA
• Shaun Hill, SF

FUN TIMES!

So what does this have to do with Jessica Simpson, you ask? Well, it seems our Mr. Romo has a trouble playing at his normal Pro Bowl level when a lady love is in the stands. This weekend, a pink-jersey clad Jessica Simpson was watching Romo stink up the joint. Coincidence, you say? Well let me ask you this…when was the last time Romo had a game this poor?

• Week 16, 2006
• 14 of 29 (48.3%)
• 142 yards
• 1 TD
• 2 INTs

What was special about that game? Carrie Underwood, his girlfriend at the time, was in the stands.

Bottom line: If you draft Tony Romo for your fantasy team, do everything humanly possible to make sure he isn’t dating a blonde pop idol at the time of your playoffs…OR ELSE!

Tonight we’re treated to a matchup of football titans. 10-1 Dallas hosts 10-1 Green Bay in a battle of the all-time best gunslinger against the young franchise QB most reminiscent of him. The Cowboys came into the season as one of the odds on favorites to win the NFC, but the Packers were considered an over-the-hill franchise that might have been better off letting Favre retire, and focusing on rebuilding.

It’s thinking like that which reminds us of the difference between fans pretending they run NFL franchises and ACTUALLY having to run one.

And while this matchup should be entertaining and full of fantasy football goodness; unfortunately a good chunk of the NFL-watching populous is going to have to wait for the highlights on SportsCenter. You see, tonight’s game will be broadcast on the NFL Network; which isn’t currently carried in a lot of places. This is the 2nd year of the NFL Network’s exclusive contract to carry Thursday night games in November and December; but it’s the first game that should actually ignite fans to complain to their cable providers about the lack of NFL Network access.

Fun times indeed.

But, as a DirecTV owner, I will be comfortably positioned in front of my TV ready to watch the best NFC game of the year.

For those playing at home, here is a tale of the tape:

Enjoy the game (or enjoy hearing about the game after the fact )

…but I TOLD YOU SO.

On October 1st, I asked the question: How much is Tony Romo going to cost Jerry Jones?

At the time, I made a prediction:

Since we’re playing along at home, I’m going to go on record and say Romo and the Cowboys come to a $6-year, $75mm deal with $30mm in guarantees before the season ends. What is your prediction?

So how did I do? Well, ESPN is reporting that Tony Romo has reached agreement on a 6-year, $67.5mm deal with $30 million in guarantees.

Not bad if I do say so myself. And in all seriousness, given the inflation in NFL salaries over the last few seasons (and the likelihood of further cap increases), the Cowboys are actually getting Romo at a very reasonable price.

Tony Romo came out of nowhere to start 11 games for the Cowboys; and earn a Pro Bowl nod in the process. After the season, the Cowboys underwent a lot of change including the departure of larger-than-life Bill Parcells as well as most of his assistant coaches. Expectations this season were huge for the entire team, with Wade Phillips inheriting a team that was favored to win the NFC East by more than a few pundits.

In the offseason, Tony Romo’s agent and  Cowboys owner/GM Jerry Jones agreed to postpone talks of a new contract extension. Jones wanted some proof that Romo’s 2006 season wasn’t a fluke. Romo, with really no leverage, happily agreed to hold off talks believing that a strong 2007 would go a long way in helping him raise his asking price.

I’m guessing Romo is happy Jones wanted to wait.

Through the first four weeks of the season:

• 72 for 121 (60%)
• 1,199 yards passing
• 9.9 yards per attempt
• 11 TDs
• 3 INTs
• 112.9 passer rating
• 71 yards rushing
• 2 rushing TDs

With his next start, Romo will have a full 16-game season under his belt. In 15 games as a starter, his numbers already compare to the best to ever play the position. Through 15 games as a starter:

• 290 completions
• 456 attempts
• 64% completion
• 4,067 yards
• 8.9 yards per attempt
• 29 TDs
• 16 INTs
• 173 rushing yards
• 2 rush TDs

So how much is Romo’s contract going to cost the Cowboys?

As with any negotiation, it starts with the most recent deals at the position.

• Marc Bulger (STL) signed a 6-year, $65 million extension this offseason, with $27mm in guarantees
• JaMarcus Russell (OAK) signed a 6-year, $68 million rookie dea, with $32mm in guarantees
• Matt Schaub (HOU) signed a 6-year, $48 million contract in Houston, with $7mm in guarantees

Needless to say, Romo is more proven than either Russell or Schaub were at their signings, and few would argue that he’s not playing as well, if not better than Bulger did in his career-best 2006 campaign.

Since we’re playing along at home, I’m going to go on record and say Romo and the Cowboys come to a $6-year, $75mm deal with $30mm in guarantees before the season ends. What is your prediction? 

Tony Romo has more than lived up to expectations through the first two weeks, making those who targeted him as their QB1 feel like they hit the lottery. And while there’s absolutely no reason to think he’s going to stop putting up excellent numbers for the remainder of the season, there has been some discussion about whether or not Romo should be on your bench THIS week as he faces the Chicago Bears.

My advice: Depends on what other QBs are on your roster. If you drafted Romo and then quickly followed up with your 2nd QB (as I did in many leagues), I would seriously consider benching him. Here are three QBs that I’m benching Romo for in leagues I’m involved with:

1. Jon Kitna, DET (@ PHI) — The Eagles secondary is banged up and the Lions throw with aplomb
2. Ben Roethlisberger (vs. SF) — Ben is, in my view, a top-10 fantasy QB this year and a solid start most weeks. He gets the 49ers at home, and given how dominant the team has been, it’s hard not to like his chances
3. Jake Delhomme, CAR (@ ATL) — The Falcons are in complete disarray, and Delhomme has looked great through two weeks.

On our message boards, the debate rages on. Sweetness34 (a Bears fan) thinks Romo will be a good fantasy starter, but for a surprising reason:

Romo will be forced to throw because I see the Bears lighting up that Cowboys secondary next week. Laugh all you want but Grossman can throw the deep ball with the best of them and the Cowboys cannot defend the long ball. Berrian will be productive on Sunday night for sure. Also, Olsen should be back and expect the Bears to feature Hester more on O in a nationally televised game. Should be a good g