2.32: Phillip Merling, DE, Miami Dolphins

Pass rusher had some injury woes but was effective off the edge when healthy. Has the size (6′5″, 272 pounds) that Bill Parcells covets. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.33: Donnie Avery, WR, St. Louis Rams

Quite a surprise. The first WR off the board is a small, uber fast guy considered a mid round pick by most scouts. Hard to believe he can replace Isaac Bruce without a few years of seasoning. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.34: Devin Thomas, WR, Washington Redskins (via Oakland through Atlanta)

The Redskins draft the WR many expected to be first off the WR board. Devin Thomas only had one big year at Michigan but has great size (6′2″, 215 pounds) and can also help as a kickoff returner. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.35: Brandon Flowers, CB, Kansas City Chiefs

If Flowers ran a tenth of a second faster, he would’ve been a mid 1st rounder. Great choice for the rebuilding Chiefs. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.36: Jordy Nelson, WR, Green Bay Packers (via New York Jets)

Another surprising WR selection. Was WR really a need for Green Bay with Driver, Jennings and Jones on the roster? Should help on special teams right away. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.37: Curtis Lofton, LB, Atlanta Falcons

Tackling machine, ideally suited for the inside where he can flow downfield to the ball. Not someone good in space and must be put in the right scheme to succeed. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.38: John Carlson, TE, Seattle Seahawks (via Baltimore)

Mike Holmgren called this a need, and the ‘hawks felt Carlson was a perfect fit for their West Coast offense. Carlson put up big numbers with Brady Quinn under center, as a reminder. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.39: Chilo Rachal, OG, San Francisco 49ers

Rachal gets knocked for not being a great athlete, but he’s technically sound and has a mean streak. As long as he plays inside and isn’t asked to pull and extend to the 2nd level much, he could be a starter immediately. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.40: Tracy Porter, CB, New Orleans Saints

Ironic that the Saints draft a cornerback with the 40th pick; considering there were rumors all week that the 40th pick would be part of a package to acquire Eagles CB Lito Sheppard. Porter is good at tracking the ball but isn’t a sure tackler or much help supporting the run.

2.41: James Hardy, WR, Buffalo Bills

The Bills landed the top corner in the draft last round and, in my opinion, the best receiver in the draft at 2.41. Hardy is a big guy who isn’t afraid of contact. He goes up for the ball and runs good routes; which helps offset a lack of breakaway speed.

2.42: Eddie Royal, WR, Denver Broncos

Royal is one of a handful of receivers who also project as solid returner at the next level. At only 5′8″, 184 pounds, Royal will need to prove he can hold up as a receiver over the course of the season. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.43: Tyrell Johnson, S, Minnesota Vikings (via Carolina through Philadelphia)

Kenny Phillips has the bigger name, but Johnson may have the bigger game. The Vikes continue to bolster their defense with another solid young, physical player. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.44: Matt Forte, RB, Chicago Bears

I’m not crazy about Forte; I don’t believe he’s a special back nor was he the best back left on the board. However, Forte has his supporters and it’s not inconceivable he could earn the starting gig over Cedric Benson sooner rather than later.

2.45: Jordon Dizon, OLB, Detroit Lions

Dizon lacks ideal size and speed; but like many solid NFL linebackers before him, he just makes plays. He’s instinctive and a sound tackler; exactly the kind of guy Rod Marinelli can build around. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.46: Jerome Simpson, WR, Cincinnati Bengals

Further proof that beauty is in the eye of the beholder at WR this year. Simpson wasn’t close to the best WR prospect on the board, but clearly the Bengals felt otherwise. At least, this pick fills a need given the release of Chris Henry and concerns about Chad Johnson’s status.

2.47: Trevor Laws, DT, Philadelphia Eagles (via Minnesota)

The Eagles finally make a pick, and it’s clearly a “best player available” selection. Defensive tackle was hardly a major need, but Laws is a high character, high motor guy who will add depth to an already young tackle rotation.

2.48: Fred Davis, TE, Washington Redskins (via Houston through Atlanta)

The Redskins are committed to getting QB Jason Campbell weapons. First Devin Thomas and now a pass-receiving tight end a few picks later. Davis doesn’t project into an elite tight end, but the Redskins don’t need him to be given the presence of Chris Cooley.

2.49: DeSean Jackson, WR/KR, Philadelphia Eagles

Many Birds fans wouldn’t have complained if Jackson was the pick in the 1st round. So to trade down, grab a 2009 1st rounder as compensation and get DeSean anyway was a coup. He’s tiny (169 pounds) but is blazing fast and unstoppable in the open field. He instantly gives the Eagles the best returner they’ve had in 5 years.

2.50: Calais Campbell, DE, Arizona Cardinals

You don’t find many 6′8″, 280 pound ends; yet Campbell fell into the 2nd round because of an uneven 2007 season. He was a stud in 2006 and, as long as the Cards play him at the right position, should combine with free agent Clark Haggans to improve the Cards pass rush.

2.51: Malcolm Kelly, WR, Washington Redskins

Sure, he’s slower than you would like. But have teams watched this kid play? He’s a polished route runner, has great hands and excellent body control. Very reminiscent of the year Chad Johnson fell because of his slow 40-time; the Skins got a steal.

2.52: Quentin Groves, DE, Jacksonville Jaguars (via Tampa Bay)

The Jags have a stifling defense already, but they aren’t great at putting pressure on opposing QBs. Adding Quentin Groves in the 2nd after taking Derrick Harvey 8th overall goes a long way to changing the Jags pass rush. Groves character issues aside, this was a solid pick.

2.53: Limas Sweed, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers

Some scouts love Sweed, some see him as a bust. At 53rd overall, the Steelers aren’t risking a lot financially to find out if he’s the next Plaxico Burress. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.54: Jason Jones, DE, Tennessee Titans

Jones could replace Antwan Odom right away, but he’s a bit raw to expect that. Eventually the Titans see Jones as a capable 2-way end in their 4-3 defense. His skill set is more suited to defensive tackle, but his size projects him as an end.

2.55: Ray Rice, RB, Baltimore Ravens (via Seattle)

Ray Rice is a local product who was wildly productive as the main ball carrier for Rutgers. While he lacks prototypical size, his low center of gravity and style make him more than capable of being an every down back if needed.

2.56: Brian Brohm, QB, Green Bay Packers (via Cleveland)

Now that’s kind of surprising. Or is it? The Pack took Aaron Rodgers in the 1st when Brett Favre was under center, so why wouldn’t they take the most accurate QB prospect in the 2nd round given Rodgers inexperience? Worst case, he’s a backup for a few years. Best case, he outplays Rodgers and ends up starting in a year or two.

2.57: Chad Henne, QB, Miami Dolphins (via San Diego)

How about that? It looks like Jake Long may be blocking for Chad Henne for a few more years. Another smart pick. He could easily outplay Beck and McCown to win the job; at the very lesaet he’s a big armed, young backup for a good price.

2.58: Dexter Jackson, WR/KR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (via Jacksonville)

This was a reach pick. While Jackson is another potentially dangerous return man; he needs a lot of maturing as a route runner before he can reasonably play WR on a regular basis. Blistering speed (4.33) though and dangerous in the open field.

2.59: Mike Pollak, OG/C, Indianapolis Colts

A classic Colts pick. Their only 1st day pick and it’s a fundamentally sound center that they project as a starting offensive guard for now and possibly a replacement for Jeff Saturday later. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.60: Patrick Lee, DB, Green Bay Packers

A hard worker, Lee may someday start at corner but not for a few seasons. In the meantime, he can be a force on special teams and perhaps play nickel back particularly in run support situations. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.61: Martellus Bennett, TE, Dallas Cowboys

I like this pick more than most. For my money, Bennett was the top TE in this draft. He’s huge, is a good blocker who can become great, and should be a key red zone target given his height and willingness to go up for the ball. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.62: Terrence Wheatley, CB, New England Patriots

The Pats always seem to find value and this was no exception. Wheatley is a legitimate shutdown cover corner who, were it not for myriad injuries in college, would’ve been in the hunt for a top 15 selection. Either way, he’ll help the Pats on defense and special teams.

2.63: Terrell Thomas, CB, New York Giants

Thomas is the 217th USC Trojan to be drafted in the first two rounds (not really, just feels that way). If the Giants view him as a corner, I don’t like this pick. But if they’re going to try to convert him to safety; where his deficiencies can be obfuscated somewhat, the choice makes more sense.

OL Branden Albert was a high riser over the last few months, as teams began to look at him more as a potential NFL tackle instead of offensive guard. Albert played guard primarily at the University of Virginia, but flourished when put at LT for a few games in place of the regular starter. Al Groh, a former NFL coach, endorsed Albert as a tackle and, he went from a potential late first rounder to a mid first rounder. The Chiefs have to be giddy because many pundits projected Albert to them with the 5th overall pick; yet they got him with the 15th by moving up and trading picks with Detroit.

Fantasy Impact: The Chiefs needed a lot of help and, so far, it looks like they MAY have landed the best offensive and defensive lineman in this draft. Albert will start on the Chiefs line, it’s just a matter of whether he lines up inside at guard or immediately earns a shot at tackle.

DT Glenn Dorsey fell inexplicably to the 5th overall pick; and the Chiefs had to be giddy at their good fortune. For a defensive minded coach, Herm Edwards had to to be sick at the Chiefs porous run defense last year (28th in yards allowed, 25th in yards per attempt). Dorsey should fix that in a hurry.

Fantasy Impact: Defensive tackles usually aren’t huge values in IDP leagues; but Dorsey should start right away and if he can solidify the interior defense, the Chiefs have a chance to move back into the top half of fantasy defenses.

Wow, sometimes I just don’t get it. The Minnesota Vikings acquire DE Jared Allen from the Kansas City Chiefs and sign him to a new contract, and I see hosts of people on radio, TV and internet message boards saying that the Vikings OVERPAID. While I can see, on the surface, why some people may have that initial reaction, I frankly think it’s conventional thinking and, with just a little analysis, people will come to realize that this move was nothing short of a NO-BRAINER for the Vikings.

First, let’s get the terms of the trade out of the way:

Vikings Get:

• DE Jared Allen
• 6th round pick (6.21 — 187th overall)

Chiefs Get:

• 1st round pick (1.17 — 17th overall)
• 3rd round pick (3.10 — 73rd overall)
• 3rd round pick (3.19 — 82nd overall)
• 6th round pick (6.16 — 182nd overall)

In conjunction with the trade, the Vikings gave Allen a new 6-year contract worth up to $74mm with incentives. The deal includes $31mm in guarantees; and puts Allen among the league’s highest paid defenders.

For those who might not realize, the 2007 Minnesota Vikings were the first team in NFL history to lead the league in both rushing offense and defense yet miss the playoffs. This team isn’t in rebuilding mode, it’s a team that could easily compete for a top seed in the NFC playoffs, particularly with the retirement of Brett Favre; the NFC North is wide open for the Vikes’ taking.

For the naysayers, let me offer you not one but two perspectives on why this deal made a ton of sense for Minnesota:

Approach #1: The Peer Group Comparison

Let’s say you turned on Sportscenter and read that the Vikings acquired Julius Peppers from the Panthers instead. Better yet, let’s say they acquired Dwight Freeney for the same draft compensation from Indianapolis. How many NFL pundits and fans would be singing the Vikings praises then? Yet, here’s the thing…Jared Allen is AS GOOD IF NOT BETTER than either Peppers or Freeney.

• Julius Peppers — 28 years old, 90 games played, 56 sacks, 31 passes defensed, 288 tackles
• Dwight Freeney — 28 years old, 88 games played, 60 sacks, 11 passes defensed, 190 tackles
• Jared Allen — 26 years old, 61 games played, 43 sacks, 25 passes defense, 227 tackles

Allen is:

• Two years younger
• Healthier
• Averaged more sacks per game (0.70 vs. 0.68 & 0.62)
• Averaged more passes defensed per game (0.41 vs. 0.13 & 0.34)
• Averaged more tackles per game (3.72 vs. 2.16 & 3.20)

Approach #2: The Draft Value Chart Comparison

By now everyone knows that most NFL teams utilize a derivative of the same draft trade chart that was first popularized by Jimmy Johnson back in his Cowboys coaching days. This is the tried and true chart teams use to evaluate trading up or down on draft day. The chart assigns a point value to each pick and declines with each successive pick.

According to the most common version of the trade chart, the value of the picks KC received was:

• 17th = 950 points
• 73rd = 225 points
• 82nd = 180 points
• 182nd = 18.6 points
• TOTAL = 1,373.6 points

In order for most GMs to make this trade, they have to feel they’re getting back equivalent or better value. The value of the 6th round pick the Vikes acquired = 16.6 points, which means:

• 187th = 16.6 points
• DIFFERENTIAL = 1,357 points

In order for the deal to make sense, Jared Allen should be “worth” at least 1,357 points on the draft chart. According to the draft chart:

• 9th overall = 1,350 points
• 8th overall = 1,400 points

Does ANYONE want to argue that Jared Allen isn’t worth the 8th or 9th overall pick in this year’s draft? You’re getting a 26 year old proven ELITE defensive end. Frankly, if we’re being intellectually honest, Jared Allen would be the 1st overall pick WITHOUT QUESTION if he were draft eligible this year. He’s a proven commodity at an elite position. Yet, all the Vikings really need out of him is the value of the 8th or 9th pick in the draft.

Let’s not mince words. Barring injury, this deal was a LAYUP for the Vikings. Keep in mind what Jared Allen has accomplished and then consider who his defensive linemates were in Kansas City. Now, he gets to line up alongside Kevin and Pat Williams; the best 4-3 tackles in the NFC. The Vikes added the league’s best young defensive end to a defense that already led the league in rushing defense. Even if their pass offense continues to struggle this season, the combination of a stifling defense and the NFC’s top rushing offense should give them as easy a road to the playoffs as any team in the NFC.

Congrats to the Vikings fans; as an Eagles season ticket holder I’m jealous.

The deadline for teams to apply the franchise or transition tag designations ended at 4:30 pm EST yesterday; so now it’s time to recap what happened and evaluate some of the moves (and non-moves).

Twelve (12) teams used the franchise tag designation:

• CB Nmandi Asomugha (Oakland)
• CB Marcus Trufant (Seattle)
• DE Jared Allen (Kansas City)
• DT Albert Haynesworth (Tennessee)
• DT Corey Williams (Green Bay)
• LB Karlos Dansby (Arizona)
• LB Terrell Suggs (Baltimore)
• OT Stacy Andrews (Cincinnati)
• OT Jordan Gross (Carolina)
• S Ken Hamlin (Dallas)
• TE Dallas Clark (Indianapolis)
• TE L.J. Smith (Philadelphia)

Most Surprising Tag: Stacy Andrews

Andrews played quite well last season, but it was his first year as a starter. The Bengals still have Levi Jones and Willie Anderson in the picture; although that may change now that Andrews has been tagged. Given the importance of Carson Palmer and Andrews’ age, the move isn’t a total shocker; although few outside of die hard Bengals fans expected it.

Most Surprising Non-Tag: Randy Moss 

As we discussed last night, not tagging Randy Moss is shocking only if they don’t already have a long-term deal completed; but unannounced until the February 29th start of free agency. We expect he IS under contract, but if this proves untrue, this may be the most shocking non-tag decision of the modern era.

Other Surprising Non-Tags 

• OT Flozell Adams (Dallas) – Adams is no spring chicken, and the Cowboys did use their tag on someone else (Ken Hamlin), but this is a bold move if the Cowboys don’t end up re-signing Adams. He has played at a high level the last few seasons and the team doesn’t have someone of his caliber (or close to it) currently on the roster. Will Jerry Jones be willing to go to battle with a young, unproven tackle in 2008?
• PK Josh Brown (Seattle) — The Seahawks tagged Brown last year and it was thought he could be tagged again this season; but now free agency looms. It’s never an easy decision to let a proven kicker walk, but perhaps they didn’t see the logic in making him the highest paid PK in the league.

Interesting Tag Minutiae

• Exclusive tag versus non-exclusive – As we discussed earlier this week, Nmandi Asomugha was tagged with an exclusive franchise designation, meaning the Raiders paid him more (the average of the 2008 top 5 projected salaries versus the 2007 in a normal tag) in exchange for keeping Asomugha from being able to negotiate with other teams. It’s telling that only one of twelve teams opted to use this tag; as it involves paying a player more yet brings less wiggle room. Why a team would pass up the idea of getting 2 first round picks if a team wants their free agent badly enough is a mystery (the Raiders would still have had the right to match).
• Is Suggs a linebacker or defensive end? — The Baltimore Ravens tagged Terrell Suggs as a linebacker, but he has filed a grievance contending he should be paid as a defensive end. The difference? About $800K for the one-year tender. This matter will be settled shortly (if Suggs lined up more than 50% of the snaps as an end, he’ll get his extra dough), but it’s odd that Suggs, who has gone to the Pro Bowl twice as a LINEBACKER would think of himself otherwise.

Most Likely to Sign a Long-term Deal: Dallas Clark

OK, this is cheating since Clark already signed a 6-year deal to remain with the Colts.

Least Likely to Sign a Long-term Deal:  L.J. Smith

The Eagles remain concerned about Smith’s health and likely won’t agree to a long-term extension without seeing improvement on the field. This is basically a one-year option to retain a talented, system TE in a very weak free agent market for tight ends.

How did we do in our predictions?

We previewed each division and our thoughts on potential tag candidates. Overall, I’d say we did quite well.

• We correctly predicted 9 of 10 ‘definites’; our only whiff was on Randy Moss
• We noted that Flozell Adams and Ken Hamlin were possibilities in Dallas [although we leaned toward Adams]
• We noted that Brown and Trufant were possibilities in Seattle [and leaned toward Trufant]
• We noted DT Corey Williams and WR Bernard Berrian as possible tags [one out of two]
• We suggested that Justin Smith shouldn’t be tagged

Now it’s onto free agency and the NFL draft!
Related Blogs:

• ‘Tis the Season for Tagging
• NFC East Potential Tag Candidates
• NFC North Potential Tag Candidates
• NFC South Potential Tag Candidates
• NFC West Potential Tag Candidates
• AFC East Potential Tag Candidates
• AFC North Potential Tag Candidates
• AFC South Potential Tag Candidates
• AFC West Potential Tag Candidates

Denver Broncos

The Broncos don’t have any free agents that are obvious fits for either the franchise or transition tag designation.

Kansas City Chiefs

DE Jared Allen

The Chiefs are expected to tag Jared Allen with an eye toward signing him to a long-term deal before the July 15th deadline. Allen had 15.5 sacks this season and has averaged 11 sacks per season over his 4-year career. Pass rushers of Allen’s ability simply don’t get into the open market very often.

Oakland Raiders

CB Nmandi Asomugha

Rumors persist that Asomugha will be franchised if the team can’t come to terms on a long-term deal before the tagging deadline. The 5-year veteran is considered a cornerstone of the team’s young, energetic defense and; given the price of free agent corners, it might not be as shocking a decision to tag him as one might think. That said, Asomugha is coming off a disappointing season following his breakout 2006 campaign. The team wouldn’t be tagging Asomugha for the player he already is; but rather for the player they think he can become.

San Diego Chargers

The Chargers don’t have many key free agents, and aren’t likely to utilize their tag designations.

Yesterday we talked about Priest Holmes’ neck injury and how the door opens for Kolby Smith. Today, the story continues as Priest Holmes officially ends his career:

“I have truly been blessed with the opportunity to play in the National Football League,” he said. “I will be forever grateful to the Hunt family and the Chiefs organization for the opportunity to come to Kansas City, where the community embraced me from Day 1.”

Fantasy owners know that Priest Holmes was an absolute beast for a few seasons; and he should be remembered as one of the better runners of his era. Unfortunately his late start (he was relegated to backup duties in Baltimore for awhile) and the injuries likely will keep Holmes from getting serious Hall of Fame consideration. But that doesn’t mean he wasn’t HIGHLY productive:

• 3 Pro Bowls (2001, 2002, 2003)
• Four 1,000-yard seasons
• His 27 rushing TDs in 2003 set a single season record, and currently stand 3rd all-time
• Three consecutive seasons with at least 2,000 yards from scrimmage
• Three consecutive seasons as a dominant fantasy player
  • #2 ranked RB in 2001
  • #1 ranked RB in 2002
  • #1 ranked RB in 2003

Congratulations to Priest Holmes on a fantastic career; and best of luck for a healthy and fulfilling retirement.

If the name Kolby Smith doesn’t mean much to you, don’t beat yourself up too much. Until today, Smith was a little used rookie backup running back for the Kansas City Chiefs. But, as of today, Smith is now the STARTING TAILBACK for the Chiefs; following Priest Holmes’ Week 11 injury:

Jay Glazer: Fox Sports

Running back Priest Holmes re-injured his neck in Sunday’s 13-10 loss to the Indianapolis Colts and his career is in doubt, FOXSports.com has learned. Holmes returned from a nearly two-year hiatus earlier this season, an absence that was also a result of a neck injury.According to sources, Holmes was dinged two or three times on Sunday. The last time came in the fourth quarter, which saw him leave the field in a wobbly state after his 20th touch of the game.

As a result, Holmes saw a specialist early this week and will see a series of specialists who can help him better determine his future. In light of the fact Holmes is already returning from a neck injury, this latest scare certainly has to raise questions, not only about this year, but about the future of his career.

Enter Kolby Smith. College fans and draft aficionados may remember Smith as the guy who took over for the injured Michael Bush as Louisville’s main runner last season. Smith was effective in Bush’s stead, but graded out as a backup prospect. He was selected in the 5th round by the Chiefs, and was thought to be a special teamer this year with Larry Johnson and Michael Bennett on the active roster. But with LJ’s injury, Priest’s injury (who was a surprise contributor) and Michael Bennett’s trade to Tampa Bay; Smith has a chance to prove his skeptics wrong.

Our Sigmund Bloom ranked Smith as the 13th best RB prospect last season, and had this to say:

Michael Bush’s injury was Kolby Smith’s opportunity, and Smith made the most of it. He’s another back whose main asset is his versatility, especially if he can add the weight and adopt the attitude to play some fullback. He’ll make for a competent backup RB even if he doesn’t.

The bad news for Smith is that the Chiefs have really struggled offensively even when Larry Johnson has been in the game. The offensive line is a shell of the unit that mauled people for much of the last decade. The good news is he faces an Oakland Raiders run defense that has allowed the most fantasy points in the league.  

If Smith can surprise this week with a strong game, he could be in line for a string of them. According to Clayton Gray’s ultimate strength of schedule, the Chiefs have the 2nd easiest fantasy schedule remaining against the run.

The Chief defense is still not recognized as a top defense. They started off the season slow, losing two games to the Texans and Bears, while giving up 20 points in each contest. But, in the last four games, the Kansas City defense has yielded only 63 points while going 3-1.

What changed? The return of Jared Allen from his suspension is the biggest difference. In the week six win against the Bengals, Allen was everywhere. He had 2.5 sacks and kept constant pressure on Carson Palmer. The Chiefs held the Bengals to 20 points, compared to the 26.5 points a game average Carson Palmer and company brought into the game. In week four, the Chiefs held the Chargers to 16 points. In the two games since, the Chargers have scored 69 points against two good defenses (Broncos and Raiders).

YouTube: D-Ends of the KC Chiefs 

The Chiefs get the Oakland Raiders this Sunday. Expect Jared Allen and company to have a field day with Daunte Culpepper and company. For fantasy leagues, the Kansas City Chiefs defense should be a very good start. The following week, the Chiefs are on bye.

It seems that every year football fans, fantasy owners and media pundits find a way to hype players as “the best ever” and speak with such hyperbole as though to convince ourselves we’re witnessing greatness. It’s never quite enough to say someone is “very good” or “excellent”…they have to be “the greatest of all time” or “bound for the Hall of Fame.” Such hyperbole often rears its ugly head in March and April as football starved fans salivate over the new crop of NFL rookies.

Calvin Johnson is the latest in a long line of ultra-hyped rookie receivers. Make no mistake, I fully participated in the Calvin Johnson hype too, and with good reason. Johnson has the size of a tight end, world-class speed, glue-like hands and his on-field production is matched by his quality as an upstanding citizen. Combining all that with a chance to play for Mike Martz in a pass happy offense makes Johnson a virtual no brainer.

Yet, Johnson isn’t the best rookie receiver through Week Five. In fact, he’s not the 2nd best rookie. And it’s not even close.

ENTER Dwayne Bowe.

Through Week 5, Bowe is the leading rookie receiver with:

• 22 receptions
• 369 yards
• 16.8 yards per reception
• 3 TDs
• 54.9 fantasy points

Top 10 Rookie Fantasy Recivers (through Week 5)

How does Bowe’s start compare historically? Well, if Bowe were able to sustain his productivity over the full season, his numbers would approximate to:

• 70 receptions
• 1,180 yards
• 16.8 yards per reception
• 10 TDs
• 178 fantasy points

How would those numbers compare historically? 178 fantasy points would make Bowe the 6th most productive fantasy rookie WR in LEAGUE HISTORY

Top 10 Rookie Fantasy WRs (1960-Present)

Should we be surprised? On one hand, Bowe was also a 1st round pick (23rd overall) and was well regarded by most scouts. He also was drafted by a team that had a desperate need for a starting caliber WR. The Chiefs have been relying on Eddie Kennison (who is much better suited as a WR2) for years and have struggled to find consistency at WR2 and beyond. But despite those obvious positives, there were reasons to discount Bowe’s rookie chances. One, the Chiefs QB situation is, and continues to be, tenuous. Two, Herm Edwards is among the league’s most conservative head coaches. Three, changes on the offensive line cast a shadow over the Chiefs ability to sustain drives.

As many of you know, I profess that the keys to fantasy success are Ability and Opportunity. Many NFL players have the ability to excel, but not as many have the opportunity; particularly in their rookie seasons. An injury to Eddie Kennison forced the Chiefs to start Bowe far sooner than I think he would’ve otherwise. But the great news for fantasy owners lucky enough to roster Bowe is that, now that he’s produced week in, week out, you can bet he won’t stop being a productive target when Eddie Kennison gets back in the lineup.

‘Tis the season for place-kicking changes. No sooner do the Jaguars move to replace the injured Josh Scobee do the Chiefs formalize their acquisition of Dave Rayner in place of rookie Justin Medlock. Rayner is a strong-legged kicker who started for the Packers last year but lost out to rookie Mason Crosby (remember him?). While Rayner has the leg to kick from anywhere on the field, he struggled with his consistency a year ago, missing 10 field goals. The Chiefs look like a moribund offensive team this year, which is a rough combination with an inaccurate kicker. Chances are you weren’t relying on Medlock to score you fantasy points, don’t treat Rayner any differently.

With the release of Byron Leftwich from the Jacksonville Jaguars, many dynasty fantasy owners were left stunned and very unhappy. There are many teams rumored to be interested in Leftwich including: Baltimore Ravens, Minnesota Vikings, Cleveland Browns, Oakland Raiders, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Kansas City Chiefs, Atlanta Falcons, as well as several others.

The savvy dynasty owner sees this as a perfect time to buy. The current Leftwich owner is left with the feeling that he was kicked in the teeth. There are no starting QB jobs open. At best, Leftwich owners are hoping for fantasy points at the end of this season, but most probably will have to wait until 2008.

Is Byron Leftwich worth a 2008 2nd round rookie pick? Most definitely, especially if you have a good team and the pick will be late in the round. Leftwich was a top fantasy passer last year, before injury, even with the less than stellar corps of pass receivers.

This may be the last time you can get Leftwich for this cheap of a price again.

Continuing on…I thought it might be helpful to give you a few quick hitting comments on which players are rising and falling in MY (i.e., different than Dodds’) projections this preseason.

Up next, the AFC West:

RISING

• Daunte Culpepper, OAK (Rank: QB24) — Healthy + Playing well + JaMarcus holding out
• Damon Huard, KC (Rank: QB32) — Named Week One starter
• LaMont Jordan, OAK (Rank: RB25) — Healthy, scoring TDs and catching passes
• Cecil Sapp, DEN (Rank: RB62) — Listed 2nd on depth chart
• Darren Sproles, SD (Rank: RB74) — Making plays + Turner high ankle sprain
• Vincent Jackson, SD (Rank: WR26) — Has shown a lot his preseason, clear cut WR1
• Jerry Porter, OAK (Rank: WR36) — Out of doghouse, Oakland actually has real coaches this year
• Craig Davis, SD (Rank: WR61) — Pushing for starting spot as a rook
• Daniel Graham, DEN (Rank: TE23) — Both he and Scheffler will be involved in passing game

FALLING

• JaMarcus Russell, OAK (Rank: QB35) — Holding out + Culpepper in town
• Brodie Croyle, KC (Rank: QB37) — Poor preseason + Huard named starter
• Michael Turner, SD (Rank: RB45) — High ankle sprain late in August
• Mike Bell, DEN (Rank: RB48) — Listed 3rd on depth chart
• Dominic Rhodes, OAK (Rank: RB51) — Suspended + Average talent + Lots of RB depth in OAK
• Brandon Marshall, DEN (Rank: WR53) — Spent too much of preseason in dog house
• Malcolm Floyd, SD (Rank: WR74) — Rookie Davis pushing to start

Let’s hear your thoughts…where do you agree? Where do you disagree and why?

Herm Edwards has named veteran Damon Huard the Chiefs starting quarterback, according to Adam Teicher of the Kansas City Star.

This really shouldn’t come as a surprise after the woeful performance Croyle put together in the last preseason game against the Saints. Croyle was 5-of-17 for 45 yards passing, completing an abysmal 2.6 yards per pass attempt. He failed to throw a touchdown but did throw an ugly interception.

Chiefs fans may take this news positively, but I’m not sure they should. It’s pretty clear Edwards and the Chiefs wanted Croyle to win the job. Croyle, a 2nd year signal caller, has the allure of potential. While they didn’t know Croyle would be good, they had reason to hope he could be good or so much more. Meanwhile, Huard is a grizzled veteran that will manage the game, but offers precious little upside from his baseline.

Neither was considered a fantasy must have this year, but now obviously Huard becomes draftable as your QB3 in deep leagues, while Croyle should sit on waivers in anything other than 14-team+ leagues or dynasty/keeper drafts.

Taking a look at the the latest ADP data, it seems that fantasy owners are paying too much attention to where the rookie WR crop were drafted in April versus how their situations have evolved over the four months since. Let’s look at the top-12 rookie receivers, according to the most recent ADP data:

• Calvin Johnson — WR20 (54th overall)
• Anthony Gonzalez — WR53 (160th overall)
• Dwayne Jarrett — WR56 (164th overall)
• Dwayne Bowe — WR59 (175th overall)
• Ted Ginn Jr. — WR62 (187th overall)
• Robert Meachem — WR63 (195th overall)
• Craig Davis — WR77 (246th overall)
• Jason Hill — WR82 (256th overall)
• James Jones — WR83 (257th overall)
• Steve Smith — WR87 (269th overall)
• Sidney Rice — WR88 (270th overall)
• Jacoby Jones — WR102 (311th overall)

In my opinion, some of these draft positions are WAY out of whack with the reality of their 2007 opportunities.

OVERVALUED ROOKIES

• Anthony Gonzalez, IND — He’s a rookie, he’s not guaranteed the #3 spot (Aaron Moorehead has been as good in camp, and has the experience factor), and save for Manning’s 49-TD season, the WR3 slot in Indy hasn’t warranted a pick that high based on year-end numbers
• Dwayne Jarrett, CAR – Yes, he may be the future WR2 in Carolina, but he’s not the present. Both Drew Carter and Keary Colbert have been running ahead of him all preseason
• Jason Hill, SF — It’s hard to call someone being drafted 256th overall overvalued. But Hill is going ahead of at least 10 wideouts I think will handily outperform him this year. Hill hasn’t gotten any run in San Francisco this preseason, and looks to start the season no better than WR4 (at best)
• Robert Meachem, NO — Meachem may have a bright future in New Orleans, but as our Sigmund Bloom said this week on The Audible, this is looking more and more like a “red shirt” year for the young speedster out of Tennessee. Meachem was a camp holdout and then showed up out of shape. He hasn’t sniffed the first team during the preseason and is running solidly behind Marques Colston, Devery Henderson, Terrence Copper, David Patten and possibly, Lance Moore.
• Ted Ginn Jr., MIA — Ginn is an athlete, but he’s not a polished receiver yet. Unless your team gets points for special teams contributions, Ginn is going far too high given the options still available.

FAIRLY VALUED ROOKIES

• Calvin Johnson, DET – Calvin Johnson is currently ranked 23rd in our consensus WR rankings, so his ADP of WR20 isn’t too out of whack. While it’s never a sure bet to bet on a rookie to deliver WR20 numbers, Johnson is a once-in-a-generation talent and plays for one of the league’s most pass happy offensive coordinators.
• Dwayne Bowe, KC – The Chiefs aren’t going to throw a lot based on Herm Edwards’ coaching history; and Brodie Croyle hasn’t instilled much confidence. However, the Chiefs are more desperate for a young playmaker at wideout than any team in the NFL. Eddie Kennison is solid but he’s getting old and is really better suited as a WR2. And Samie Parker (Mr. Inconsistent) is all that stands in Bowe’s way.
• Sidney Rice, MIN — Rice is an enigma. He’s super skinny and playing in arguably the most jumbled WR corps in the league, but he could easily emerge as a starter sometime this season. The issue, however, is that he could just as easily end up the 4th or 5th wideout. Add to that the uncertainty of QB Tarvaris Jackson and Rice is probably best left as a late round flier or waiver wire pickup

UNDERVALUED ROOKIES

• Craig Davis, SD — Eric Parker is out for a good chunk of the season and rookie Davis has been running with the starting unit opposite Vincent Jackson. The Chargers have a Pro Bowl QB in Philip Rivers and while the WR2 won’t get a ton of targets because of Tomlinson and Gates also getting looks, any NFL starting wideout deserves a higher ADP than Davis’
• James Jones, GB – As we discussed yesterday, Jones has been a beast this preseason and should be the Packers WR3 at worst. But with the injury to Donald Driver, Jones could start the season opposite Greg Jennings. With the Packers throwing the ball 500+ times, and the team’s willingness to start rookies (Jennings started last year), Jones should be drafted in 12-team leagues but his ADP suggests he’s not been
• Steve Smith, NYG — Smith is going to start the season as the Giants WR3, but given Burress’ and Toomer’s injury situations, and Toomer’s advancing age, he stands a good chance of becoming a starter at some point this year. Smith has been one of the most impressive, polished rookie receivers throughout training camp and the preseason. He should have a better season than his USC counterpart
• Jacoby Jones, HOU — Jones is running neck and neck with Kevin Walter for the Texans WR2 position. The Texans have no reason to sit a talent like Jones if he’s as good, if not better than Walter at this juncture. While the Texans offense has its question marks, a 16-game NFL starter (potentially) deserves to be drafted in deeper leagues, yet Jacoby is going outside the top 300!

Larry Johnson has signed a 5-year, $45mm deal that includes $19mm in guarantees ($12mm bonus, $7mm salary); which ends a month-long holdout for the Chiefs offensive star.

Over the last few weeks, I’ve seen LJ fall out of the top 3 in several drafts, including an “expert” draft I participated in recently (he fell to 6th inexplicably). Gone are those days now that he’s back in the Chiefs fold. While I still wonder whether he’s at risk of disappointing (line changes, uncertain QB situation, ridiculously heavy workload the last two seasons), I will now be very surprised if he’s not off the board in the top 3 in the vast majority of redraft leagues.

Regardless of how you personally feel about players breaking contracts…

Let’s look at this from Larry’s perspective:

• He has outplayed his rookie deal by a wide margin
• He is considered the 2nd best RB in the game behind only LaDainian Tomlinson
• KC is offering way below market value going forward on any restructure
• Carl Peterson has done this countless times with his best players (Holmes, Gonzalez come to mind) and these deals usually got done because the players wanted to stay.  I don’t think Johnson wants to stay.
• He will get his money from someone eventually if he doesn’t sign a deal with KC and shows up week 10 to put his year in
• KC could franchise him next year, but that is likely a bluff. Owners don’t like to franchise players they don’t want around. KC could do it, but this would likely just buy time while they openly shop LJ to get picks and players.
• Any new 4-5 year contract will likely be Larry’s last as he is 27 years old now.
• Any fines/lost money this year will more than be made up with a new deal next year (See Deion Branch situation)
• Salaries are skyrocketing as the league gains popularity
• Carl Peterson is saying LJ isn’t worth LaDainian Tomlinson money despite LT’s contract happening two years ago.  New contracts are always worth more.  So if LJ gets LT money, that actually is less.
• KC will likely be a subpar team over his next contract

So Larry has one big payday coming. Why would anyone in Johnson’s shoes take any lowball offer KC is offering? They want LJ, but they want him for 50 cents on the dollar. I am beginning to think we will see LJ for only 6 games this year (He will show up week 10 to fulfill the contract) and then he will be traded to a team that will pay him what he believes he is worth.  Fantasy owners should be very wary of choosing him with an early first round pick at this time.

Chris Chambers has 452 targets over the last 3 years. Only Torry Holt (470) and Chad Johnson (467) have more targets over that same span. Chambers, however, has only 210 receptions compared to Holt’s 289 receptions and Johnson’s 279 receptions.

Reception % for those three players (2004-2006)

• 61.4% Torry Holt
• 59.7% Chad Johnson
• 46.7% Chris Chambers

Who’s to blame for Chambers low reception percentage? Is it Chambers himself or is it the 4 different subpar QB’s that he’s had over the last four years?

• Chambers 2006: 59 rec on 154 targets = 38%. The primary Miami QB was Joey Harrington, who had a 59% completion percentage that year finished the season ranked 27th among fantasy QBs
• Chambers 2005: 82 rec on 166 targets = 49%. The primary Miami QB was Gus Frerotte, who had a 52% completion percentage that year finished the season ranked 17th among fantasy QBs
• Chambers 2004: 69 rec on 132 targets = 52%. The primary Miami QB was AJ Feeley, who had a 53% completion percentage that year finished the season ranked 30th among fantasy QBs
• Chambers 2003: 64 rec, 130 targets = 49%. The primary Miami QB was Jay Fiedler, who had a 57% completion percentage that year finished the season ranked 24th among fantasy QBs

Average Miami QB completion % over the last 4 years = 55.25%

Average QB fantasy ranking over the last 4 years (using Footballguys standard scoring format) = 24.5

Looking ahead to 2007, the Dolphins will now have Trent Green under center. How have his receivers fared in Kansas City over the last 4 years? What was Trent Green’s completion percentage over that same span? What was his fantasy rankings each of those years?

Trent Green completion % each of the last 4 years (end of season QB fantasy rankings in parenthesis)

• 2006: 61% (36) Keep in mind, Green only played in about 7.5 games in 2006 due to injury
• 2005: 62% (8)
• 2004: 66% (4)
• 2003: 63% (3)

Kansas City top receivers each of the last 4 years

• 2006: Tony Gonzalez 73 rec on 103 targets = 70%, Eddie Kennison 53 rec on 101 targets = 52%
• 2005: Tony Gonzalez 78 rec on 116 targets = 67%, Eddie Kennison 68 rec on 108 targets = 63%
• 2004: Tony Gonzalez 102 rec on 143 targets = 71%, Eddie Kennison 62 rec on 102 targets = 60%
• 2003: Tony Gonzalez 71 rec on 106 targets = 67%, Eddie Kennison 56 rec on 99 targets = 56%

Excluding Tony Gonzalez, due to his TE position, focusing only on WR Eddie Kennison’s numbers, they compare to Chambers as follows…

Avg reception %

• Kennison (with T. Green): 57.75%
• Chambers (with 4 diff subpar QB’s): 47.00%

That’s a 10% difference. To me that’s enough to say that Trent Green’s presence in the Miami offense will most certainly improve Chambers numbers in 2007. At least that’s what the numbers suggest on paper. Also worth noting - Chambers will not have Wes Welker or Randy McMichael to steal away targets this year. That’s 196 targets that will either go to Chambers or a combination of other people. Who are those other people? Miami’s depth chart includes…

• WR1 Chris Chambers (154 targets in 2006)
• WR2 Marty Booker (90 targets in 2006)
• WR3 Derek Hagan (37 targets in 2006)
• WR4 Ted Ginn/Az-Zahir Hakim (27 targets in 2006 - with DET)
• TE David Martin (36 targets in 2006 - with GB)

It’s evidenced that Trent Green can definitely latch on to one particular receiver. If you have a doubt, ask Tony Gonzalez or for a WR, ask Eddie Kennison. Kennison led all Chiefs WRs in receptions each of the last 5 years, coincidentally, each season was with Trent Green at QB.

If Chambers can equal his target average over the last 3 years of 150 targets and increase his reception rate due to Trent Green’s presence his numbers will look like this for 2007

A: Projections for Chambers assuming 13.3 yards per reception - his average over last 4 yrs

B: Projections for Chambers assuming Eddie Kennison’s 16.3 yards per reception - his average over the last 4 years

If Chris Chambers is going to be a one-man wrecking crew in 2007 he does reach Kennison’s average per reception, then we’re talking about serious numbers here which would definitely rank him among the top 10 in fantasy WRs, if not higher. Those results aren’t foreign to Chambers, despite the subpar QBs that he has worked with. In 2003 Chambers finished 11th among Fantasy WRs and that was with Jay Fiedler throwing the ball. In 2005 Chambers finished 7th among fantasy WRs with none other than Gus Frerotte leading the offense.

The naysayers will say Chambers’ knack for producing low reception percentages are due to his inability to catch the ball, regardless of who the QB is. They’ll say things will be difficult to project due to the coaching change which led to the hiring of former Chargers Offensive Coordinator Cam Cameron this offseason. Those are legitimate arguments, but in the fantasy world we look to numbers, trends, talent, opportunities and systems to reach our conclusions. I’m not saying that Chambers is going to be a top 5 WR, in fact I’ve long been one of those people that avoids Chambers on draft day. What I am saying is that the changes that have been made to the Miami offense may be enough to allow Chambers and his remarkable talent to finally reach his fantasy potential that we’ve all been aware of since day one.

He’s currently being drafted as the 23rd best WR in 12-team redraft leagues, which is right around the beginning of the 6th round. Can he outperform that ADP? I’m guessing that he will. 2007 might just be the year that you’ll be able to rely on drafting Chambers without worry.