2.32: Phillip Merling, DE, Miami Dolphins

Pass rusher had some injury woes but was effective off the edge when healthy. Has the size (6′5″, 272 pounds) that Bill Parcells covets. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.33: Donnie Avery, WR, St. Louis Rams

Quite a surprise. The first WR off the board is a small, uber fast guy considered a mid round pick by most scouts. Hard to believe he can replace Isaac Bruce without a few years of seasoning. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.34: Devin Thomas, WR, Washington Redskins (via Oakland through Atlanta)

The Redskins draft the WR many expected to be first off the WR board. Devin Thomas only had one big year at Michigan but has great size (6′2″, 215 pounds) and can also help as a kickoff returner. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.35: Brandon Flowers, CB, Kansas City Chiefs

If Flowers ran a tenth of a second faster, he would’ve been a mid 1st rounder. Great choice for the rebuilding Chiefs. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.36: Jordy Nelson, WR, Green Bay Packers (via New York Jets)

Another surprising WR selection. Was WR really a need for Green Bay with Driver, Jennings and Jones on the roster? Should help on special teams right away. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.37: Curtis Lofton, LB, Atlanta Falcons

Tackling machine, ideally suited for the inside where he can flow downfield to the ball. Not someone good in space and must be put in the right scheme to succeed. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.38: John Carlson, TE, Seattle Seahawks (via Baltimore)

Mike Holmgren called this a need, and the ‘hawks felt Carlson was a perfect fit for their West Coast offense. Carlson put up big numbers with Brady Quinn under center, as a reminder. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.39: Chilo Rachal, OG, San Francisco 49ers

Rachal gets knocked for not being a great athlete, but he’s technically sound and has a mean streak. As long as he plays inside and isn’t asked to pull and extend to the 2nd level much, he could be a starter immediately. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.40: Tracy Porter, CB, New Orleans Saints

Ironic that the Saints draft a cornerback with the 40th pick; considering there were rumors all week that the 40th pick would be part of a package to acquire Eagles CB Lito Sheppard. Porter is good at tracking the ball but isn’t a sure tackler or much help supporting the run.

2.41: James Hardy, WR, Buffalo Bills

The Bills landed the top corner in the draft last round and, in my opinion, the best receiver in the draft at 2.41. Hardy is a big guy who isn’t afraid of contact. He goes up for the ball and runs good routes; which helps offset a lack of breakaway speed.

2.42: Eddie Royal, WR, Denver Broncos

Royal is one of a handful of receivers who also project as solid returner at the next level. At only 5′8″, 184 pounds, Royal will need to prove he can hold up as a receiver over the course of the season. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.43: Tyrell Johnson, S, Minnesota Vikings (via Carolina through Philadelphia)

Kenny Phillips has the bigger name, but Johnson may have the bigger game. The Vikes continue to bolster their defense with another solid young, physical player. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.44: Matt Forte, RB, Chicago Bears

I’m not crazy about Forte; I don’t believe he’s a special back nor was he the best back left on the board. However, Forte has his supporters and it’s not inconceivable he could earn the starting gig over Cedric Benson sooner rather than later.

2.45: Jordon Dizon, OLB, Detroit Lions

Dizon lacks ideal size and speed; but like many solid NFL linebackers before him, he just makes plays. He’s instinctive and a sound tackler; exactly the kind of guy Rod Marinelli can build around. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.46: Jerome Simpson, WR, Cincinnati Bengals

Further proof that beauty is in the eye of the beholder at WR this year. Simpson wasn’t close to the best WR prospect on the board, but clearly the Bengals felt otherwise. At least, this pick fills a need given the release of Chris Henry and concerns about Chad Johnson’s status.

2.47: Trevor Laws, DT, Philadelphia Eagles (via Minnesota)

The Eagles finally make a pick, and it’s clearly a “best player available” selection. Defensive tackle was hardly a major need, but Laws is a high character, high motor guy who will add depth to an already young tackle rotation.

2.48: Fred Davis, TE, Washington Redskins (via Houston through Atlanta)

The Redskins are committed to getting QB Jason Campbell weapons. First Devin Thomas and now a pass-receiving tight end a few picks later. Davis doesn’t project into an elite tight end, but the Redskins don’t need him to be given the presence of Chris Cooley.

2.49: DeSean Jackson, WR/KR, Philadelphia Eagles

Many Birds fans wouldn’t have complained if Jackson was the pick in the 1st round. So to trade down, grab a 2009 1st rounder as compensation and get DeSean anyway was a coup. He’s tiny (169 pounds) but is blazing fast and unstoppable in the open field. He instantly gives the Eagles the best returner they’ve had in 5 years.

2.50: Calais Campbell, DE, Arizona Cardinals

You don’t find many 6′8″, 280 pound ends; yet Campbell fell into the 2nd round because of an uneven 2007 season. He was a stud in 2006 and, as long as the Cards play him at the right position, should combine with free agent Clark Haggans to improve the Cards pass rush.

2.51: Malcolm Kelly, WR, Washington Redskins

Sure, he’s slower than you would like. But have teams watched this kid play? He’s a polished route runner, has great hands and excellent body control. Very reminiscent of the year Chad Johnson fell because of his slow 40-time; the Skins got a steal.

2.52: Quentin Groves, DE, Jacksonville Jaguars (via Tampa Bay)

The Jags have a stifling defense already, but they aren’t great at putting pressure on opposing QBs. Adding Quentin Groves in the 2nd after taking Derrick Harvey 8th overall goes a long way to changing the Jags pass rush. Groves character issues aside, this was a solid pick.

2.53: Limas Sweed, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers

Some scouts love Sweed, some see him as a bust. At 53rd overall, the Steelers aren’t risking a lot financially to find out if he’s the next Plaxico Burress. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.54: Jason Jones, DE, Tennessee Titans

Jones could replace Antwan Odom right away, but he’s a bit raw to expect that. Eventually the Titans see Jones as a capable 2-way end in their 4-3 defense. His skill set is more suited to defensive tackle, but his size projects him as an end.

2.55: Ray Rice, RB, Baltimore Ravens (via Seattle)

Ray Rice is a local product who was wildly productive as the main ball carrier for Rutgers. While he lacks prototypical size, his low center of gravity and style make him more than capable of being an every down back if needed.

2.56: Brian Brohm, QB, Green Bay Packers (via Cleveland)

Now that’s kind of surprising. Or is it? The Pack took Aaron Rodgers in the 1st when Brett Favre was under center, so why wouldn’t they take the most accurate QB prospect in the 2nd round given Rodgers inexperience? Worst case, he’s a backup for a few years. Best case, he outplays Rodgers and ends up starting in a year or two.

2.57: Chad Henne, QB, Miami Dolphins (via San Diego)

How about that? It looks like Jake Long may be blocking for Chad Henne for a few more years. Another smart pick. He could easily outplay Beck and McCown to win the job; at the very lesaet he’s a big armed, young backup for a good price.

2.58: Dexter Jackson, WR/KR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (via Jacksonville)

This was a reach pick. While Jackson is another potentially dangerous return man; he needs a lot of maturing as a route runner before he can reasonably play WR on a regular basis. Blistering speed (4.33) though and dangerous in the open field.

2.59: Mike Pollak, OG/C, Indianapolis Colts

A classic Colts pick. Their only 1st day pick and it’s a fundamentally sound center that they project as a starting offensive guard for now and possibly a replacement for Jeff Saturday later. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.60: Patrick Lee, DB, Green Bay Packers

A hard worker, Lee may someday start at corner but not for a few seasons. In the meantime, he can be a force on special teams and perhaps play nickel back particularly in run support situations. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.61: Martellus Bennett, TE, Dallas Cowboys

I like this pick more than most. For my money, Bennett was the top TE in this draft. He’s huge, is a good blocker who can become great, and should be a key red zone target given his height and willingness to go up for the ball. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.62: Terrence Wheatley, CB, New England Patriots

The Pats always seem to find value and this was no exception. Wheatley is a legitimate shutdown cover corner who, were it not for myriad injuries in college, would’ve been in the hunt for a top 15 selection. Either way, he’ll help the Pats on defense and special teams.

2.63: Terrell Thomas, CB, New York Giants

Thomas is the 217th USC Trojan to be drafted in the first two rounds (not really, just feels that way). If the Giants view him as a corner, I don’t like this pick. But if they’re going to try to convert him to safety; where his deficiencies can be obfuscated somewhat, the choice makes more sense.

The Chargers needed help in the defensive backfield and didn’t hesitate to select CB Antoine Cason. Cason probably went a little earlier than some expected, but this was right about the level considering the other defensive backs that were already selected. Cason projects as a zone corner, he hasn’t shown the one-on-one coverage ability that some of the other 1st round CBs have in their collegiate careers.

Fantasy Impact: The Chargers are good about adding value where they see it, and in Cason they added depth to the defensive backfield. Don’t expect much from Cason in 2008, either as a fantasy contributor or as someone who improves the overall productivity of the defensive unit.

It was bad enough that Antonio Gates was hobbled throughout the Chargers playoff run (6 catches for 60 yards and no scores in 3 games); but now fans have to wonder if he’ll be a factor at all in 2008. Yes folks, the world’s most dominant fantasy tight end is likely to undergo surgery next week to repair his injured foot. Although some have reported that Gates would be fine by the beginning of the regular season; he doesn’t appear as confident:

“It may be the beginning of training camp and it may be the middle of the season,” Antonio Gates said.

Until we have a clearer sense about Gates’ injury and the severity, it’s pure conjecture as to his projected recovery time. One thing is clear, Gates will present fantasy owners will a conundrum come draft time. He’s been BY FAR, the best fantasy TE in the league for years and there’s no reason to think he wouldn’t reprise that role again in 2008 if healthy. But given his lack of productivity in December and January; plus the recovery time from his upcoming surgery, how far must his draft stock fall before he represents good value? Stay tuned!

Denver Broncos

The Broncos don’t have any free agents that are obvious fits for either the franchise or transition tag designation.

Kansas City Chiefs

DE Jared Allen

The Chiefs are expected to tag Jared Allen with an eye toward signing him to a long-term deal before the July 15th deadline. Allen had 15.5 sacks this season and has averaged 11 sacks per season over his 4-year career. Pass rushers of Allen’s ability simply don’t get into the open market very often.

Oakland Raiders

CB Nmandi Asomugha

Rumors persist that Asomugha will be franchised if the team can’t come to terms on a long-term deal before the tagging deadline. The 5-year veteran is considered a cornerstone of the team’s young, energetic defense and; given the price of free agent corners, it might not be as shocking a decision to tag him as one might think. That said, Asomugha is coming off a disappointing season following his breakout 2006 campaign. The team wouldn’t be tagging Asomugha for the player he already is; but rather for the player they think he can become.

San Diego Chargers

The Chargers don’t have many key free agents, and aren’t likely to utilize their tag designations.

Over the last few weeks, three NFL running backs have joined the 10,000-yards rushing club.

• LaDainian Tomlinson: 10,048 yards rushing (in Week 12)
• Warrick Dunn: 10,044 yards rushing (in Week 12)
• Fred Taylor: 10,221 yards rushing (in Week 10)

Congratulations are in order as they become  just the 20th, 21st and 22nd players in  NFL history to rush for at least 10,000 yards.

LaDainian Tomlinson is having another excellent season in San Diego; but it pales in comparison to his MVP season of a year ago. While it was impossible to expect Tomlinson to match last year’s output, few expected the Chargers offense as a unit to take a big step back; particularly with Norv Turner at the helm. But, amidst the Chargers up-and-down 2007, there is one player who is, yet again, having an astoundingly good year.

Antonio Gates is on pace for one of the best offensive seasons by a tight end in NFL history.

Through 11 games:

• 60 receptions
• 834 yards
• 13.9 yards per catch
• 8 touchdowns
• 131.4 fantasy points

If Gates maintains his current pace, he’ll finish with:

• 87 receptions
• 1,213 yards
• 13.9 yards per catch
• 12 touchdowns
• 191.1 fantasy points

Here is where those numbers would stand among the all-time single season marks:

• Receptions: Tied for 13th all-time
• Yards: 5th place
• TDs: Tied for 2nd place (Gates holds the single season record with 13 TDs in 2004)
• Fantasy Points: 3rd place

 Other Thoughts:

1. Gates is likely to become the 1st TE in NFL history with three (3) seasons of 10+ TD receptions
2. Gates will overtake Kellen Winslow for 10th all-time with 46 or more TDs at his current pace

Who says NFL trades never happen? Yesterday Michael Bennett was traded to Tampa Bay; but today a much bigger (potentially) deal went down as the San Diego Chargers acquired Chris Chambers from the Dolphins for an undisclosed draft pick.

This is the rare mid-season deal that has significant fantasy implications.

1. Chambers will be the lead WR in San Diego — It may take a few games, but Chambers will almost certainly become Philip Rivers most targeted WR
2. Vincent Jackson can’t be happy — The Chargers young wideout is now going to have to compete for targets with a proven veteran. Ultimately this might be good for Jackson’s career though, as he may be better suited as a WR2
3. Malcolm Floyd and Craig Davis become relative non-factors — Neither WR was making a ton of plays anyway, but they will now be relegated to backup duty primarily
4. Philip Rivers gets an upgrade — I’m not the biggest Chambers fan (more on that in a second) but his addition definitely improves Rivers’ arsenal
5. Don’t downgrade Gates or Tomlinson – Gates and Tomlinson aren’t going to lose many targets because of this move. If anything, this should allow the Chargers to sustain offensive drives more often, which means more red zone chances for Gates and Tomlinson; the best at their respective positions when it comes to scoring TDs
6. The Dolphins are throwing in the towel -- Honestly, the Dolphins are officially heading toward 2008 at this point, giving up their lone playmaker in the receiving game.
7. Upgrade Ted Ginn Jr. and Marty Booker — SOMEONE besides Ronnie Brown has to get passes thrown their way, and rookie Ginn is probably going to see a ton of them as the Dolphins look to rebuild toward a 2008 resurgence.

Where does this put Chambers now in terms of fantasy value?

Through six games, Chambers has 31 receptions for 415 yards, but zero TDs. His numbers project to:

• 83 receptions
• 1,107 yards

It’s difficult to look at his situation in San Diego and not expect Chambers to improve, right? Well, let’s be careful here.

Targets = Opportunity

Through six games, Chambers have been targeted a whopping 66 times. That’s the 4th most targets in the league. You can be sure that Chambers WILL NOT see as many passes thrown his way in San Diego.

1. The Chargers run the ball a lot more
2. Antonio Gates has been targeted 54 times; leading the team
3. LaDainian Tomlinson has been targeted 38 times
4. The Chargers WRs have been targeted 66 times COMBINED through Week Six

The fact is, Chambers will go from being one of THE most targeted receivers in football to somewhere toward the bottom of WR1s in the league. So the real question fantasy owners need to ask themselves is, can Chambers do MORE with each target? The bad news is Chambers has always had hands of stone.

Take a look at the 50 most targeted receivers over the last 5+ seasons (2002-2007), ranked by reception-to-target percentage:

Hands of stone. And the bad news is Chambers has been consistently poor at converting targets into catches. His career best rate was, as a rookie, when he caught 53% of his targets. This year he’s running at 47%, bout 15-20% lower than most elite receivers.

What’s the silver lining?  

I can see two potential areas of encouragement. 1) Norv Turner coaches Chambers for two years in Miami; including the 2003 season when Chambers finished as the 11th best fantasy wideout. 2) Chambers has ZERO TDs right now, but has historically been a good TD producer. I would be surprised if Turner doesn’t find a way to get him at least 5 or 6 TDs the rest of the way.

So what’s the verdict? If you own Chris Chambers, it’s probably a slight upgrade for you if he can score touchdowns, but in PPR leagues his value almost assuredly takes a dip for a few weeks, if not the entire season. If you were starting Vincent Jackson on a consistent basis, you probably want to look elsewhere. It also means Philip Rivers (who hopefully has been on your bench) might now become a viable option at QB. On the Dolphins side, this puts even more pressure on Ronnie Brown to carry the load. He’s been too dominant to sit, but you might want to give more consideration to a trade at this point. Ted Ginn probably is the biggest beneficiary, in that the Fins have absolutely no reason not to start him and let him get a baptism by fire the rest of the way.

Good luck!

Last week, I wrote how LaDainian Tomlinson was off to a terrible start. He was averaging under two yards per carry, almost unheard of for an elite back over a 35-carry stretch. Well after three games, neither Tomlinson nor any of the San Diego running backs are rushing very well.

It was only last year that Charger running backs ran 461 times for 2,482 yards, an incredible 5.38 average yards per carry. Those last two numbers were the second highest of the past decade, behind only the the 2003 Packers (2,506 yards) and 1997 Lions (5.94 yards per carry). There were 343 teams in the NFL from 1996-2006, and Chargers running backs ran the ball better than almost every one of them. The Chargers also ranked 2nd in my quick “Yards over 3.0″ stat. Here are the top 10 teams, with the last column representing rushing yards accumulated over three yards per attempt:

 1997	det	396	2352	5.94	1164
 2006	sdg	461	2482	5.38	1099
 2003	gnb	473	2506	5.30	1087
 2003	rav	478	2452	5.13	1018
 2006	jax	430	2206	5.13	916
 2005	sea	475	2326	4.90	901
 2002	den	396	2052	5.18	864
 2006	nyg	426	2121	4.98	843
 1998	den	458	2213	4.83	839
 2005	kan	468	2242	4.79	838

This year, the Chargers rank dead last in the league in rushing yards per attempt by running backs, with 77 carries for just 198 yards, an ugly 2.57 yards per rush. Only the Chiefs at 2.80 join San Diego with a team RB average under three yards per carry. Here are the worst 15 teams in YPC average after three games played, from 1997-2007. The last column shows each team’s season ending YPC average by RBs:

 2000	cin	48	 93	1.94	4.34
 2004	mia	62	132	2.13	3.44
 2006	cle	48	104	2.17	3.27
 1999	crd	78	191	2.45	3.12
 2006	tam	50	123	2.46	3.68
 2000	buf	75	185	2.47	3.56
 2000	crd	61	151	2.48	3.69
 2006	nyj	73	187	2.56	3.40
 1997	jax	89	228	2.56	3.63
 2002	nyj	39	100	2.56	4.07
 2003	buf	72	185	2.57	3.94
 2007	sdg	77	198	2.57	 --
 2000	jax	78	201	2.58	4.22
 2005	nwe	74	192	2.59	3.51
 1998	gnb	79	208	2.63	3.52

Ironically enough, the worst team after three games ended up looking best of the group. Corey Dillon had 82 yards on 41 carries after three weeks, but would later set the single game rushing record (since broken) and rush for 200 yards in another game later that year. This was right in the middle of Dillon’s prime, when he was considered the most inconsistent RB in the NFL. That 2000 Bengals team was one of the ugliest worst passing teams in the last decade (more on this tomorrow). For the season the Bengals had a QB rating of 52.0, and in the first three games it was an ugly 39.8. That team was such an outlier, I’m not sure they provide a great comparison to any current team, let alone one with a Pro Bowl QB.

The other two teams to top 4.00 — the ‘02 Jets and ‘00 Jaguars — were, like the 2000 Bengals and the 2007 Chargers, carried by great RBs. The ‘02 Jets were a weird team, because they were outscored by 64 points in games 2 and 3 with Vinny Testaverde at QB, and became a different team after the emergence of Chad Pennington. The ‘00 Jags? Fred Taylor would rank 6th in the league in rushing yards and average 4.8 YPC, despite playing only 13 games. Any guesses as to which three games he missed?

The rest of the list is filled with teams that never really fixed things in the running game. I don’t think the ‘07 Chargers are anything like the ‘02 Jets or ‘00 Jaguars, because of the significant change in personnel, but they could conceivably match what the 1997 Bengals did. Certainly, though, most teams in the Chargers’ situation have failed to become even an average rushing team.

Before we go, let’s just take a second and recognize how badly the Chargers RBs have regressed this year. Of the 343 teams from 1996-2006, none of them have declined as much in performance after three games like the 2007 Chargers. Below is a table that shows each team’s Year N yards per carry average by RBs, that team’s Year N+1 yards per carry average by RBs after three games, and the difference:

 2006	sdg	5.38	2.57	2.81
 1999	cin	4.57	1.94	2.63
 2001	nyj	4.77	2.56	2.20
 1996	atl	4.52	2.65	1.87
 2004	nwe	4.43	2.59	1.83
 2004	nyj	4.72	2.89	1.82
 2002	buf	4.35	2.57	1.78
 2005	tam	4.21	2.46	1.75
 1997	gnb	4.33	2.63	1.69
 2005	cle	3.84	2.17	1.68
 2006	sfo	4.99	3.39	1.60
 2005	sea	4.90	3.31	1.58
 2006	jax	5.13	3.55	1.58
 2004	rav	4.33	2.77	1.57
 2001	nyg	4.39	2.83	1.56
 2006	kan	4.34	2.80	1.54
 2001	pit	4.57	3.06	1.51
 1999	jax	4.08	2.58	1.50
 2003	mia	3.61	2.13	1.48
 2005	chi	4.39	2.95	1.44

The difference between the Chargers and even the fourth biggest decliner is huge. Now obviously the Chargers had a high perch to fall from, but this steep decline is unprecedented in the past eleven years, and maybe much longer. As we’ve seen, the 2000 Bengals and 2002 Jets did turn it around, but I’m not sure if we can explain what’s going on in San Diego. The 2000 Bengals started off with rookie (and soon to be bust) Akili Smith at QB, after Jeff Blake had a good season in 1999. The 2002 Jets ran Curtis Martin just 24 times in the first three games; the 2007 Chargers have run LT 57 times already. This Chargers team returns all five offensive lineman and their superstar TE, along with two great RBs. And while it’s easy to blame Norv Turner, he’s always coached successful running games. It’s hard to see what’s going on in San Diego, but we’re seeing a decline of absolutely historic proportions so far. It’s as if Peyton Manning started playing like Andrew Walter. As I said last week, I’ll never be surprised to watch Tomlinson run for 150 yards on any Sunday, but right now, the 2007 Chargers RBs and offensive lineman have looked pitiful.

On the other side, let’s give some credit to the 2007 Cleveland Browns, who have the third largest increase using the same criteria:

 1998	car	3.64	6.57	-2.94
 2002	rav	4.25	6.75	-2.50
 2006	cle	3.27	5.71	-2.44
 1997	sfo	4.02	6.29	-2.28
 1996	min	3.74	5.87	-2.13
 2000	pit	4.03	6.00	-1.97
 2001	mia	3.38	5.33	-1.95
 2001	rai	3.61	5.51	-1.90
 1999	nyg	3.22	5.10	-1.88
 2003	oti	3.37	5.07	-1.70
 2002	chi	3.42	5.05	-1.63
 2001	crd	3.51	5.14	-1.63
 2002	car	3.59	5.20	-1.61
 1996	cin	3.68	5.08	-1.39
 1996	tam	3.27	4.65	-1.38
 1997	sdg	3.59	4.97	-1.38
 1996	chi	3.78	5.10	-1.32
 1999	phi	3.92	5.23	-1.31
 2001	min	3.67	4.97	-1.31
 1997	crd	3.19	4.48	-1.28

Two weeks ago, every intelligent football fan on the planet would have said that LaDainian Tomlinson was the best running back in the NFL. In 2007 LT led the league in rushing, set the all time single-season touchdown record, and led the league in the famous yards over 3.0 statistic. So surely it is a surprise to all that through two weeks, Tomlinson currently ranks last among all RBs in yards per carry in 2007.

Tomlinson has played two tough defenses (Chicago and New England), and we’re still dealing with a pretty small sample size. Those arguments would make a lot of sense if say, Tomlinson was averaging 2.9 yards per carry this year. But he’s averaging 1.9 YPC right now, which puts him in the company of Derrick Blaylock 2006, Lamar Gordon 2004 and Ciatrick Fason 2005. Needless to say, I think there’s cause to worry.

I wondered if maybe things just look bad because it’s the first two weeks, and not weeks eight and nine. I looked at all RBs from 1995 to 2006, to see how many had: (a) had 35 or more carries in consecutive games, and (b) averaged 2.00 or fewer yards per carry in those games. Well, only five RBs in those twelve seasons met those criteria:

Edgerrin James	2006	crd	1.82	3.44
Kevan Barlow	2005	sfo	1.91	3.30
Quentin Griffin	2004	den	1.97	3.66
Eddie George	2001	oti	1.78	2.98
Darick Holmes	1996	buf	2.00	3.02

The last column shows how many YPC they averaged in the full season, and the second to last shows how many they averaged in their miserable two game slump. I love Tomlinson as much as the next guy, but that’s a pretty miserable group of players to be paired with. Barlow, Griffin and Holmes were busts that had short spurts of success. James and George, while each would earn four trips to Hawaii, were miserable in those seasons and shells of their former selves. The idea that the best spin we could put on Tomlinson’s 2007 season is “hey, he could do what Edgerrin James did in 2006″ isn’t very comforting to Chargers fans.

Let’s expand things a little bit, though. Here’s a list of RBs with 30+ carries that averaged 2.20 YPC or fewer over consecutive games during the same span:

Larry Johnson		2006	kan	2.00	4.30
Warrick Dunn		1998	tam	2.09	4.19
Marshall Faulk		1998	clt	2.13	4.07
Mario Bates		1995	nor	2.00	3.90
Chris Fuamatu-Ma’afala	2001	pit	2.17	3.78
Mike Alstott		2002	tam	1.90	3.75
Quentin Griffin		2004	den	1.97	3.66
Karim Abdul-Jabbar	1996	mia	1.81	3.64
Jamal Anderson		2000	atl	1.90	3.63
Kevin Jones		2005	det	2.08	3.57
Karim Abdul-Jabbar	1998	mia	1.97	3.56
Jamal Anderson		1997	atl	2.03	3.46
Edgerrin James		2006	crd	2.10	3.44
Edgerrin James		2006	crd	1.82	3.44
Kevan Barlow		2004	sfo	2.20	3.37
Kevan Barlow		2005	sfo	1.91	3.30
Darick Holmes		1996	buf	2.00	3.02
Darick Holmes		1996	buf	2.08	3.02
Arlen Harris		2003	ram	2.14	3.00
Eddie George		2001	oti	1.78	2.98
Marshall Faulk		1996	clt	2.15	2.96
James Jackson		2001	cle	2.18	2.84
LeShon Johnson		1999	nyg	2.09	2.34
Lamar Gordon		2004	mia	1.74	1.83

The above list is sorted by the right column, yards per carry average in the full season. And yes, just a year ago, Larry Johnson suffered through a miserable stretch in weeks five and six. I suspect people will make of this what they like; if they own Tomlinson in a fantasy league, they’ll accurately point out that superstar RBs like Johnson and Marshall Faulk (1998 version) had down games and still were studs. Conversely, if you don’t believe Tomlinson can turn it around, you can point out that he’s hit a level of ineptitude rarely matched, and by some of the worst RBs in modern memory. Even when Faulk did it (1996 version), he had by far the worst season of his career, and maybe Tomlinson is headed for his own down year.

It’s easy to suggest that Tomlinson will be fine, and I’d never say otherwise. He’s just too talented for me to put it print that Tomlinson won’t be a stud. But I am concerned by the lack of comparables in recent history. I suspected that there’d be several star RBs that endured bad stretches, but really, there’s very little to go on. Just three of the 24 RBs that have looked as bad at LT has looked averaged 4.00 YPC that season. Tomlinson has been flat out bad, so far, and who knows when he’ll turn it back around. And while New England and Chicago are tough, Larry Johnson averaged 3.4 YPC against the Bears (LT 1.5), and Thomas Jones averaged 3.0 YPC against New England (LT 2.4). And it’s not like we haven’t seen the old Tomlinson run all over good defenses or the Patriots, before.

On the other hand, Tomlinson has had some ugly moments over the years. He had 17 carries for 7 yards in a game against the Eagles in 2005. He had a five game run in the middle of 2004 where he averaged just 2.88 yards per carry. Previously, his lowest YPC averages in a two game stretch were 2.24, 2.69, 2.69, 2.78 and 2.86. All I know for now, is 1.94 certainly sticks out. It’s the worst two-game stretch of his 99 game career. His offensive line has performed significantly worse than they did in ‘06, and Tomlinson himself hasn’t looked as good, either. At this point, I’d feel a lot better about his future chances if he said he had the flu the past two weeks and just didn’t tell anyone.

Continuing on…I thought it might be helpful to give you a few quick hitting comments on which players are rising and falling in MY (i.e., different than Dodds’) projections this preseason.

Up next, the AFC West:

RISING

• Daunte Culpepper, OAK (Rank: QB24) — Healthy + Playing well + JaMarcus holding out
• Damon Huard, KC (Rank: QB32) — Named Week One starter
• LaMont Jordan, OAK (Rank: RB25) — Healthy, scoring TDs and catching passes
• Cecil Sapp, DEN (Rank: RB62) — Listed 2nd on depth chart
• Darren Sproles, SD (Rank: RB74) — Making plays + Turner high ankle sprain
• Vincent Jackson, SD (Rank: WR26) — Has shown a lot his preseason, clear cut WR1
• Jerry Porter, OAK (Rank: WR36) — Out of doghouse, Oakland actually has real coaches this year
• Craig Davis, SD (Rank: WR61) — Pushing for starting spot as a rook
• Daniel Graham, DEN (Rank: TE23) — Both he and Scheffler will be involved in passing game

FALLING

• JaMarcus Russell, OAK (Rank: QB35) — Holding out + Culpepper in town
• Brodie Croyle, KC (Rank: QB37) — Poor preseason + Huard named starter
• Michael Turner, SD (Rank: RB45) — High ankle sprain late in August
• Mike Bell, DEN (Rank: RB48) — Listed 3rd on depth chart
• Dominic Rhodes, OAK (Rank: RB51) — Suspended + Average talent + Lots of RB depth in OAK
• Brandon Marshall, DEN (Rank: WR53) — Spent too much of preseason in dog house
• Malcolm Floyd, SD (Rank: WR74) — Rookie Davis pushing to start

Let’s hear your thoughts…where do you agree? Where do you disagree and why?

Taking a look at the the latest ADP data, it seems that fantasy owners are paying too much attention to where the rookie WR crop were drafted in April versus how their situations have evolved over the four months since. Let’s look at the top-12 rookie receivers, according to the most recent ADP data:

• Calvin Johnson — WR20 (54th overall)
• Anthony Gonzalez — WR53 (160th overall)
• Dwayne Jarrett — WR56 (164th overall)
• Dwayne Bowe — WR59 (175th overall)
• Ted Ginn Jr. — WR62 (187th overall)
• Robert Meachem — WR63 (195th overall)
• Craig Davis — WR77 (246th overall)
• Jason Hill — WR82 (256th overall)
• James Jones — WR83 (257th overall)
• Steve Smith — WR87 (269th overall)
• Sidney Rice — WR88 (270th overall)
• Jacoby Jones — WR102 (311th overall)

In my opinion, some of these draft positions are WAY out of whack with the reality of their 2007 opportunities.

OVERVALUED ROOKIES

• Anthony Gonzalez, IND — He’s a rookie, he’s not guaranteed the #3 spot (Aaron Moorehead has been as good in camp, and has the experience factor), and save for Manning’s 49-TD season, the WR3 slot in Indy hasn’t warranted a pick that high based on year-end numbers
• Dwayne Jarrett, CAR – Yes, he may be the future WR2 in Carolina, but he’s not the present. Both Drew Carter and Keary Colbert have been running ahead of him all preseason
• Jason Hill, SF — It’s hard to call someone being drafted 256th overall overvalued. But Hill is going ahead of at least 10 wideouts I think will handily outperform him this year. Hill hasn’t gotten any run in San Francisco this preseason, and looks to start the season no better than WR4 (at best)
• Robert Meachem, NO — Meachem may have a bright future in New Orleans, but as our Sigmund Bloom said this week on The Audible, this is looking more and more like a “red shirt” year for the young speedster out of Tennessee. Meachem was a camp holdout and then showed up out of shape. He hasn’t sniffed the first team during the preseason and is running solidly behind Marques Colston, Devery Henderson, Terrence Copper, David Patten and possibly, Lance Moore.
• Ted Ginn Jr., MIA — Ginn is an athlete, but he’s not a polished receiver yet. Unless your team gets points for special teams contributions, Ginn is going far too high given the options still available.

FAIRLY VALUED ROOKIES

• Calvin Johnson, DET – Calvin Johnson is currently ranked 23rd in our consensus WR rankings, so his ADP of WR20 isn’t too out of whack. While it’s never a sure bet to bet on a rookie to deliver WR20 numbers, Johnson is a once-in-a-generation talent and plays for one of the league’s most pass happy offensive coordinators.
• Dwayne Bowe, KC – The Chiefs aren’t going to throw a lot based on Herm Edwards’ coaching history; and Brodie Croyle hasn’t instilled much confidence. However, the Chiefs are more desperate for a young playmaker at wideout than any team in the NFL. Eddie Kennison is solid but he’s getting old and is really better suited as a WR2. And Samie Parker (Mr. Inconsistent) is all that stands in Bowe’s way.
• Sidney Rice, MIN — Rice is an enigma. He’s super skinny and playing in arguably the most jumbled WR corps in the league, but he could easily emerge as a starter sometime this season. The issue, however, is that he could just as easily end up the 4th or 5th wideout. Add to that the uncertainty of QB Tarvaris Jackson and Rice is probably best left as a late round flier or waiver wire pickup

UNDERVALUED ROOKIES

• Craig Davis, SD — Eric Parker is out for a good chunk of the season and rookie Davis has been running with the starting unit opposite Vincent Jackson. The Chargers have a Pro Bowl QB in Philip Rivers and while the WR2 won’t get a ton of targets because of Tomlinson and Gates also getting looks, any NFL starting wideout deserves a higher ADP than Davis’
• James Jones, GB – As we discussed yesterday, Jones has been a beast this preseason and should be the Packers WR3 at worst. But with the injury to Donald Driver, Jones could start the season opposite Greg Jennings. With the Packers throwing the ball 500+ times, and the team’s willingness to start rookies (Jennings started last year), Jones should be drafted in 12-team leagues but his ADP suggests he’s not been
• Steve Smith, NYG — Smith is going to start the season as the Giants WR3, but given Burress’ and Toomer’s injury situations, and Toomer’s advancing age, he stands a good chance of becoming a starter at some point this year. Smith has been one of the most impressive, polished rookie receivers throughout training camp and the preseason. He should have a better season than his USC counterpart
• Jacoby Jones, HOU — Jones is running neck and neck with Kevin Walter for the Texans WR2 position. The Texans have no reason to sit a talent like Jones if he’s as good, if not better than Walter at this juncture. While the Texans offense has its question marks, a 16-game NFL starter (potentially) deserves to be drafted in deeper leagues, yet Jacoby is going outside the top 300!

Following up on Will Grant’s post about what to look for during the preseason games, I thought I’d post a link to the NFL’s pre-season television schedule. This week we have five games on tap:

• Thu., Aug. 9 Indianapolis at Dallas FOX (8 p.m.)
• Fri., Aug. 10 Buffalo at New Orleans CBS (8 p.m.)
• Sat, Aug. 11 Washington at Tennessee NFLN (8 p.m.)
• Sun, Aug. 12 Seattle at San Diego NBC (8 p.m.)
• Mon, Aug. 13 Denver at San Francisco ESPN (8 p.m.)

Below are a few story lines of interest to fantasy owners regarding the above games.

On Thursday, we’ll get a glimpse of Tony Romo’s progress entering his second year as the starter for Dallas (likely we’ll see very little of Peyton Manning, Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne). Friday will give us an idea how resilient the Saints’ first team is this year after their embarrassment at the hands of “Blitzburgh” during the Hall of Fame game. Saturday, young guns Jason Campbell and Vince Young will be under the microscope of fantasy owners everywhere - who has made strides in his development so far? Will Young throw another punch with his throwing hand? Stay tuned, sports fans! Deion Branch has been enjoying his first full training camp with the Seahawks - can he and Matt Hasselbeck form a strong #1 tandem (replacing the Hasselbeck/Darrell Jackson connection), starting on Sunday? Is D.J. Hackett actually getting pushed by Nate Burleson, or was that a false camp rumor? On Monday, we’ll see if Jay Cutler is simpatico with Javon Walker and Daniel Graham, and who will line up as the team’s #2 WR. Alex Smith enters the game without his top RB, Frank Gore - how will the 49ers adjust their attack to compensate for the absent (broken hand) Gore?

Don’t you just love football season? Get ready to rummmbllle fantasy owners everywhere - the game is BACK ON!

LaDainian Tomlinson destroyed the NFL record books last year, and in the process, single-handedly led many fantasy owners to their league titles. If you’re reading this blog, I’m sure you’re well aware of Tomlinson’s remarkable 2006 season totals.

• 348 rushes (2nd in NFL)
• 1,815 yards (1st in NFL, 17th best all-time)
• 28 rushing TDs (1st in NFL, 1st all-time)
• 56 receptions (7th among RBs)
• 508 yards (5th among RBs)
• 3 receiving TDs (T-2nd among RBs)
• 2,323 yards from scrimmage (2nd in NFL, 6th best all-time)
• 31 TDs (1st all-time)

In the process, he scored 427.10 fantasy points (using FBG scoring), which easily ranks as the best single-season in fantasy football history:

Coming off that monster season, it’s not surprising that LT is the consensus #1 overall fantasy pick for 2007. But inevitably there are going to be those handful of league owners who when faced with the #1 pick are going to try to talk themselves out of drafting LT. The most common argument I’ve heard from contrarians is, “he can’t possibly duplicate last year’s numbers.”

I will agree that it’s HIGHLY UNLIKELY he’ll duplicate last year’s numbers. In fact, I’ll go so far as to say it’s unlikely he’s COME CLOSE to those numbers. You’re talking about a historical season, after all.

But here’s why LT should, barring injury, still be the lock, no-brainer #1 overall fantasy pick. EVEN IF HIS PRODUCTION DROPS OFF SIGNIFICANTLY, HE WILL STILL BE A FANTASY STUD.

Consider where Tomlinson would have ranked over the last five years under two scenarios:

• Scenario A) 20% reduction from 2006 numbers = 341.7 fantasy points
• Scenario B) 40% reduction from 2006 numbers = 256.3 fantasy points

Even if Tomlinson were to shave 20% of of last year’s numbers, he’s still a virtual lock for top 2-3 production. And under a more extreme scenario, where he shaves 40% off of his record-setting numbers, he STILL would be in line for a top-7 fantasy finish. HIGH CEILING, HIGH FLOOR = A no brainer. Do yourself a favor and don’t talk yourself into taking someone other than LT with the 1st overall pick this year.

In this thead at the footballguys message board, a poster named “Lash” points out that the San Diego Chargers figure to get lots of games this year against inexperienced quarterbacks. Indeed, playing in a division where the opposing starting quarterbacks are potentially JaMarcus Russell, Brodie Croyle, and Jay Cutler might lead to some big games for the Chargers’ defense.

That, combined with the fact that the Chargers themselves don’t exactly have a ten-year vet at the helm, prompted me to see, just for fun, if any division has ever had such a collective lack of experience at the quarterback position. It turns out that, even if Josh McCown and/or Damon Huard start in place of Russell and/or Croyle, this will be among the greenest quarterback divisions of the last 30 years.

I looked at all divisions since 1978, defined their quarterback to the one who threw the most passes for them during that season, and then measured that quarterback’s experience by counting the number of NFL passes he had thrown prior to that season. Then I averaged those figures for all teams in the division.

That sounds complicated, but it’s not. Let me illustrate with the 2007 AFC West:

   QB            Career passing attempts
========================================
Rivers                   490
Cutler                   137
Croyle                     7
Russell                    0

The average is 159, which would be by far the lowest since 1978. Even if we slot Huard and McCown in there in place of Croyle and Russell, we’d get 505, which is still very low.

1985 AFC Central       233
Bernie Kosar             0
Mark Malone            380
Warren Moon            450
Boomer Esiason         102

1979 NFC Central       421
Doug Williams          194
Jeff Komlo               0
Tommy Kramer            73
Mike Phipps           1405
David Whitehurst       433

1988 NFC Central       495
Jim McMahon           1321
Wade Wilson            703
Rusty Hilger           157
Vinny Testaverde       165
Don Majkowski          127

1980 NFC Central       525
Doug Williams          591
Tommy Kramer           639
Lynn Dickey            876
Gary Danielson         451
Vince Evans             66

1989 NFC Central       533
Mike Tomczak           505
Bob Gagliano            30
Wade Wilson           1035
Don Majkowski          463
Vinny Testaverde       631

1990 NFC Central       535
Rich Gannon             21
Jim Harbaugh           286
Don Majkowski         1062
Vinny Testaverde      1111
Rodney Peete           195

1986 AFC Central       555
Bernie Kosar           248
Boomer Esiason         533
Warren Moon            827
Mark Malone            613

1986 AFC East          589
Ken O’Brien            691
Jim Kelly                0
Dan Marino            1427
Jack Trudeau             0
Tony Eason             825

2004 NFC West          594
Tim Rattay             163
Matt Hasselbeck       1282
Marc Bulger            746
Josh McCown            183

Can you guess what the most experienced division of quarterbacks was? Two of the top three come from the last two seasons.

We know that Antonio Gates has been the top fantasy tight end for three consecutive years. We know that he will be the first tight end taken in virtually every fantasy draft this year. The one question mark for this year is whether his production will be affected by the changes in the Chargers’ coaching staff. We know that Norv Turner led offenses have done well over the years. We know that feature running backs have produced extremely well under Norv. But what about tight ends? Following are the year end fantasy ranks for the top tight end on the teams for which Turner was either the head coach or the offensive coordinator:

Some initial thoughts on the above names and numbers:

• At first glance, it might look alarming… suggesting that Norv does not utilize his TE as much as Gates has been used by the Chargers to date. At second glance, it would be unfair to compare Gates to the majority of the names on that list. Turner has indicated during the offseason that he plans to utilize Gates’ talents… i.e. catching passes.
• Vernon Davis’ and Eric Johnson’s combined fantasy points last year ranked 10th.
• The most recent top ten finishes for a TE under Norv’s jurisdiction were Randy McMichael’s. Those were Randy’s first two years in the league. For comparison, he has continued to produce at essentially the same level: 5th, 8th, and 11th since Norv moved onwards.
• The encouraging news goes back to the very beginning, when Turner was offensive coordinator for the Cowboys. Dallas had a very strong team at virtually every position. It’s probably safe to say that they had better wide receivers than the present day Chargers do. Nonetheless, Novacek had two top five finishes, including the top spot in 1992.

Continuing in the series, here is a look at the pass distributions for the AFC West teams. For a quick orientation, see this post.

          ==== WR =====|=== TE ===|=== RB ==
TM   YR     1  2  3  T |  1  2  T |  1  2  T
============================================
oak 2004 | 25 17 14 65 |  8  4 15 |  7  6 19
    2005 | 26 24 14 74 |  8  1  9 | 14  3 18
    2006 | 26 19