2.32: Phillip Merling, DE, Miami Dolphins

Pass rusher had some injury woes but was effective off the edge when healthy. Has the size (6′5″, 272 pounds) that Bill Parcells covets. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.33: Donnie Avery, WR, St. Louis Rams

Quite a surprise. The first WR off the board is a small, uber fast guy considered a mid round pick by most scouts. Hard to believe he can replace Isaac Bruce without a few years of seasoning. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.34: Devin Thomas, WR, Washington Redskins (via Oakland through Atlanta)

The Redskins draft the WR many expected to be first off the WR board. Devin Thomas only had one big year at Michigan but has great size (6′2″, 215 pounds) and can also help as a kickoff returner. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.35: Brandon Flowers, CB, Kansas City Chiefs

If Flowers ran a tenth of a second faster, he would’ve been a mid 1st rounder. Great choice for the rebuilding Chiefs. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.36: Jordy Nelson, WR, Green Bay Packers (via New York Jets)

Another surprising WR selection. Was WR really a need for Green Bay with Driver, Jennings and Jones on the roster? Should help on special teams right away. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.37: Curtis Lofton, LB, Atlanta Falcons

Tackling machine, ideally suited for the inside where he can flow downfield to the ball. Not someone good in space and must be put in the right scheme to succeed. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.38: John Carlson, TE, Seattle Seahawks (via Baltimore)

Mike Holmgren called this a need, and the ‘hawks felt Carlson was a perfect fit for their West Coast offense. Carlson put up big numbers with Brady Quinn under center, as a reminder. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.39: Chilo Rachal, OG, San Francisco 49ers

Rachal gets knocked for not being a great athlete, but he’s technically sound and has a mean streak. As long as he plays inside and isn’t asked to pull and extend to the 2nd level much, he could be a starter immediately. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.40: Tracy Porter, CB, New Orleans Saints

Ironic that the Saints draft a cornerback with the 40th pick; considering there were rumors all week that the 40th pick would be part of a package to acquire Eagles CB Lito Sheppard. Porter is good at tracking the ball but isn’t a sure tackler or much help supporting the run.

2.41: James Hardy, WR, Buffalo Bills

The Bills landed the top corner in the draft last round and, in my opinion, the best receiver in the draft at 2.41. Hardy is a big guy who isn’t afraid of contact. He goes up for the ball and runs good routes; which helps offset a lack of breakaway speed.

2.42: Eddie Royal, WR, Denver Broncos

Royal is one of a handful of receivers who also project as solid returner at the next level. At only 5′8″, 184 pounds, Royal will need to prove he can hold up as a receiver over the course of the season. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.43: Tyrell Johnson, S, Minnesota Vikings (via Carolina through Philadelphia)

Kenny Phillips has the bigger name, but Johnson may have the bigger game. The Vikes continue to bolster their defense with another solid young, physical player. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.44: Matt Forte, RB, Chicago Bears

I’m not crazy about Forte; I don’t believe he’s a special back nor was he the best back left on the board. However, Forte has his supporters and it’s not inconceivable he could earn the starting gig over Cedric Benson sooner rather than later.

2.45: Jordon Dizon, OLB, Detroit Lions

Dizon lacks ideal size and speed; but like many solid NFL linebackers before him, he just makes plays. He’s instinctive and a sound tackler; exactly the kind of guy Rod Marinelli can build around. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.46: Jerome Simpson, WR, Cincinnati Bengals

Further proof that beauty is in the eye of the beholder at WR this year. Simpson wasn’t close to the best WR prospect on the board, but clearly the Bengals felt otherwise. At least, this pick fills a need given the release of Chris Henry and concerns about Chad Johnson’s status.

2.47: Trevor Laws, DT, Philadelphia Eagles (via Minnesota)

The Eagles finally make a pick, and it’s clearly a “best player available” selection. Defensive tackle was hardly a major need, but Laws is a high character, high motor guy who will add depth to an already young tackle rotation.

2.48: Fred Davis, TE, Washington Redskins (via Houston through Atlanta)

The Redskins are committed to getting QB Jason Campbell weapons. First Devin Thomas and now a pass-receiving tight end a few picks later. Davis doesn’t project into an elite tight end, but the Redskins don’t need him to be given the presence of Chris Cooley.

2.49: DeSean Jackson, WR/KR, Philadelphia Eagles

Many Birds fans wouldn’t have complained if Jackson was the pick in the 1st round. So to trade down, grab a 2009 1st rounder as compensation and get DeSean anyway was a coup. He’s tiny (169 pounds) but is blazing fast and unstoppable in the open field. He instantly gives the Eagles the best returner they’ve had in 5 years.

2.50: Calais Campbell, DE, Arizona Cardinals

You don’t find many 6′8″, 280 pound ends; yet Campbell fell into the 2nd round because of an uneven 2007 season. He was a stud in 2006 and, as long as the Cards play him at the right position, should combine with free agent Clark Haggans to improve the Cards pass rush.

2.51: Malcolm Kelly, WR, Washington Redskins

Sure, he’s slower than you would like. But have teams watched this kid play? He’s a polished route runner, has great hands and excellent body control. Very reminiscent of the year Chad Johnson fell because of his slow 40-time; the Skins got a steal.

2.52: Quentin Groves, DE, Jacksonville Jaguars (via Tampa Bay)

The Jags have a stifling defense already, but they aren’t great at putting pressure on opposing QBs. Adding Quentin Groves in the 2nd after taking Derrick Harvey 8th overall goes a long way to changing the Jags pass rush. Groves character issues aside, this was a solid pick.

2.53: Limas Sweed, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers

Some scouts love Sweed, some see him as a bust. At 53rd overall, the Steelers aren’t risking a lot financially to find out if he’s the next Plaxico Burress. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.54: Jason Jones, DE, Tennessee Titans

Jones could replace Antwan Odom right away, but he’s a bit raw to expect that. Eventually the Titans see Jones as a capable 2-way end in their 4-3 defense. His skill set is more suited to defensive tackle, but his size projects him as an end.

2.55: Ray Rice, RB, Baltimore Ravens (via Seattle)

Ray Rice is a local product who was wildly productive as the main ball carrier for Rutgers. While he lacks prototypical size, his low center of gravity and style make him more than capable of being an every down back if needed.

2.56: Brian Brohm, QB, Green Bay Packers (via Cleveland)

Now that’s kind of surprising. Or is it? The Pack took Aaron Rodgers in the 1st when Brett Favre was under center, so why wouldn’t they take the most accurate QB prospect in the 2nd round given Rodgers inexperience? Worst case, he’s a backup for a few years. Best case, he outplays Rodgers and ends up starting in a year or two.

2.57: Chad Henne, QB, Miami Dolphins (via San Diego)

How about that? It looks like Jake Long may be blocking for Chad Henne for a few more years. Another smart pick. He could easily outplay Beck and McCown to win the job; at the very lesaet he’s a big armed, young backup for a good price.

2.58: Dexter Jackson, WR/KR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (via Jacksonville)

This was a reach pick. While Jackson is another potentially dangerous return man; he needs a lot of maturing as a route runner before he can reasonably play WR on a regular basis. Blistering speed (4.33) though and dangerous in the open field.

2.59: Mike Pollak, OG/C, Indianapolis Colts

A classic Colts pick. Their only 1st day pick and it’s a fundamentally sound center that they project as a starting offensive guard for now and possibly a replacement for Jeff Saturday later. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.60: Patrick Lee, DB, Green Bay Packers

A hard worker, Lee may someday start at corner but not for a few seasons. In the meantime, he can be a force on special teams and perhaps play nickel back particularly in run support situations. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.61: Martellus Bennett, TE, Dallas Cowboys

I like this pick more than most. For my money, Bennett was the top TE in this draft. He’s huge, is a good blocker who can become great, and should be a key red zone target given his height and willingness to go up for the ball. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.62: Terrence Wheatley, CB, New England Patriots

The Pats always seem to find value and this was no exception. Wheatley is a legitimate shutdown cover corner who, were it not for myriad injuries in college, would’ve been in the hunt for a top 15 selection. Either way, he’ll help the Pats on defense and special teams.

2.63: Terrell Thomas, CB, New York Giants

Thomas is the 217th USC Trojan to be drafted in the first two rounds (not really, just feels that way). If the Giants view him as a corner, I don’t like this pick. But if they’re going to try to convert him to safety; where his deficiencies can be obfuscated somewhat, the choice makes more sense.

The Cardinals top need was defensive back, and they added CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie with the 16th pick. DRC, cousin to Pro Bowl Antonio Cromartie, played as small Tennessee State and wasn’t on the draft pundits radar until this season. He’s an exceptional athlete and, while raw and untested against top competition, was too physically dominant in postseason workouts to pass up apparently.

Fantasy Impact: Minimal; other than DRC may help strengthen the Cardinals pass defense and, in turn, slightly increase the defenses overall productivity.

For a team that supposedly had no leverage, the Cardinals come out looking pretty good today. Larry Fitzgerald, due $14.6mm in 2008, signed a new 4-year, $40mm contract today ending weeks of speculation that he would have to be traded in order for the Cardinals to field a 53-man roster.

According to reports, the deal includes:

• $40mm total value over 4 years
• $15mm signing bonus
• $2mm in 2008 salary
• $5mm option bonus before 2009 season
• $30mm in guarantees

Yes, that’s a monster deal so why do I think the Cardinals came out looking good, you ask? Because in the process, they lowered Fitz’ cap number to $7.6mm in 2008, freeing up almost $9mm in cap room to field a competitive roster. On top of that, the Cards lock up the best YOUNG receiver in the game. Fitz is only 24 years old (he’ll turn 25 in August), and is easily among the most productive receivers in the history of the NFL at that age.

Consider:

Most Receiving Yards, Career (Players 24 years or younger)

Most Receptions, Career (Players 24 years or younger)

Most Receiving TDs, Career (Players 24 years or younger)

NFL free agency is upon us, and big names are already packing their bags (or paying someone to do it) for new cities. Asante Samuel, Alan Faneca, Bernard Berrian, Donte Stallworth, and more are all ready to get their new jersey and playbook. Millions of dollars are flying everywhere as big names get signed almost hourly.

Two names are missing off of that list - Michael Turner and Randy Moss.

Let’s talk about Moss first. Sure, Berrian and Stallworth are now in Minnesota and Cleveland, respectively - but there are other WRs that are in the wind right now with their futures uncertain. Everyone is talking about what will happen with Larry Fitzgerald in Arizona, and neither Fitz nor the Cards are happy. Fitzgerald doesn’t want to budge much off of his big payday, which he has earned, but the Cardinals are on the outside looking in with Faneca and others getting signed elsewhere. With a salary cap problem that makes Dan Snyder look like Scott Pioli, Arizona is left out in the cold while the hot stove NFL names ink deals.

So what’s this have to do with Randy Moss? Well, Fitzgerald wants his money but odds are that he also wants to be paid like the best WR in the NFL. Has anyone else considered that Moss’ next contract could set the bar for what any deal has to beat to get to that level? I’ve thought about it and it is starting to make sense. All these talks of trades for Lito Sheppard and a draft choice with the Eagles and other possible scenarios for Fitzgerald would all hinge on a new and cap-friendly contract with Larry’s John Hancock on the bottom. If Randy Moss signs a deal with either the Patriots or another franchise, it sets the high watermark for WR salaries.

The downside for Fitzgerald in this stalemate is two-fold: the Cards cannot wait forever, and there is also the risk that Moss could go the Philadelphia. Arizona does not want to cripple themselves with a massive cap number to keep Fitzgerald, yet the front office is still saying that they are willing to do just that. Odds are that if he won’t renegotiate, the Cardinals would be better served to move him off of their bloated books. The problem for both sides is that every signing like Berrian and Stallworth reduces the chances of a trade, reducing the number of teams that would go hard after Fitzgerald, and also that the longer this drags on the more it hurts Arizona’s chances for improvement by adding more talent.

Look for Randy Moss to make up his mind soon, and I would not be surprised at all to see both Fitz and the Cards celebrate Moss’ decision.

I’ll talk more about Michael Turner and the running backs next.

The deadline for teams to apply the franchise or transition tag designations ended at 4:30 pm EST yesterday; so now it’s time to recap what happened and evaluate some of the moves (and non-moves).

Twelve (12) teams used the franchise tag designation:

• CB Nmandi Asomugha (Oakland)
• CB Marcus Trufant (Seattle)
• DE Jared Allen (Kansas City)
• DT Albert Haynesworth (Tennessee)
• DT Corey Williams (Green Bay)
• LB Karlos Dansby (Arizona)
• LB Terrell Suggs (Baltimore)
• OT Stacy Andrews (Cincinnati)
• OT Jordan Gross (Carolina)
• S Ken Hamlin (Dallas)
• TE Dallas Clark (Indianapolis)
• TE L.J. Smith (Philadelphia)

Most Surprising Tag: Stacy Andrews

Andrews played quite well last season, but it was his first year as a starter. The Bengals still have Levi Jones and Willie Anderson in the picture; although that may change now that Andrews has been tagged. Given the importance of Carson Palmer and Andrews’ age, the move isn’t a total shocker; although few outside of die hard Bengals fans expected it.

Most Surprising Non-Tag: Randy Moss 

As we discussed last night, not tagging Randy Moss is shocking only if they don’t already have a long-term deal completed; but unannounced until the February 29th start of free agency. We expect he IS under contract, but if this proves untrue, this may be the most shocking non-tag decision of the modern era.

Other Surprising Non-Tags 

• OT Flozell Adams (Dallas) – Adams is no spring chicken, and the Cowboys did use their tag on someone else (Ken Hamlin), but this is a bold move if the Cowboys don’t end up re-signing Adams. He has played at a high level the last few seasons and the team doesn’t have someone of his caliber (or close to it) currently on the roster. Will Jerry Jones be willing to go to battle with a young, unproven tackle in 2008?
• PK Josh Brown (Seattle) — The Seahawks tagged Brown last year and it was thought he could be tagged again this season; but now free agency looms. It’s never an easy decision to let a proven kicker walk, but perhaps they didn’t see the logic in making him the highest paid PK in the league.

Interesting Tag Minutiae

• Exclusive tag versus non-exclusive – As we discussed earlier this week, Nmandi Asomugha was tagged with an exclusive franchise designation, meaning the Raiders paid him more (the average of the 2008 top 5 projected salaries versus the 2007 in a normal tag) in exchange for keeping Asomugha from being able to negotiate with other teams. It’s telling that only one of twelve teams opted to use this tag; as it involves paying a player more yet brings less wiggle room. Why a team would pass up the idea of getting 2 first round picks if a team wants their free agent badly enough is a mystery (the Raiders would still have had the right to match).
• Is Suggs a linebacker or defensive end? — The Baltimore Ravens tagged Terrell Suggs as a linebacker, but he has filed a grievance contending he should be paid as a defensive end. The difference? About $800K for the one-year tender. This matter will be settled shortly (if Suggs lined up more than 50% of the snaps as an end, he’ll get his extra dough), but it’s odd that Suggs, who has gone to the Pro Bowl twice as a LINEBACKER would think of himself otherwise.

Most Likely to Sign a Long-term Deal: Dallas Clark

OK, this is cheating since Clark already signed a 6-year deal to remain with the Colts.

Least Likely to Sign a Long-term Deal:  L.J. Smith

The Eagles remain concerned about Smith’s health and likely won’t agree to a long-term extension without seeing improvement on the field. This is basically a one-year option to retain a talented, system TE in a very weak free agent market for tight ends.

How did we do in our predictions?

We previewed each division and our thoughts on potential tag candidates. Overall, I’d say we did quite well.

• We correctly predicted 9 of 10 ‘definites’; our only whiff was on Randy Moss
• We noted that Flozell Adams and Ken Hamlin were possibilities in Dallas [although we leaned toward Adams]
• We noted that Brown and Trufant were possibilities in Seattle [and leaned toward Trufant]
• We noted DT Corey Williams and WR Bernard Berrian as possible tags [one out of two]
• We suggested that Justin Smith shouldn’t be tagged

Now it’s onto free agency and the NFL draft!
Related Blogs:

• ‘Tis the Season for Tagging
• NFC East Potential Tag Candidates
• NFC North Potential Tag Candidates
• NFC South Potential Tag Candidates
• NFC West Potential Tag Candidates
• AFC East Potential Tag Candidates
• AFC North Potential Tag Candidates
• AFC South Potential Tag Candidates
• AFC West Potential Tag Candidates

Arizona Cardinals

LB Karlos Dansby

The Cardinals have two free agent linebackers that are among the most compelling options in free agency: Karlos Dansby and Calvin Pace. While Pace is talented and someone the Cardinals would like to have back, it’s Dansby that’s almost assuredly going to be tagged because he’s emerging as one of the preeminent defensive playmakers in the NFC.

     
St. Louis Rams

The Rams have a handful of free agents but none that warrant either the franchise or transition tag designation.

San Francisco 49ers

GM Scott McCloughan has gone on record saying the team has no intentions of using the franchise tag on any of its key free agents. The team has a few key free agents it would do well to retain (e.g., Isaac Sopaoga and Larry Allen) but neither are worth the kind of money a franchise designation would incur.

Seattle Seahawks

Option 1: PK Josh Brown

The Seahawks don’t want to lose their star place kicker and, as a result, may tag him again. Recall that Browns was the team’s franchise player last season, but the team was unable to come to terms on a multi-year deal. Given the modest differential between the top paid kickers and the middle-of-the-road alternatives, the Seahawks would be foolish to let Brown enter free agency; either they will sign him long-term over the next week or he’ll get tagged because…

Option 2: CB Marcus Trufant

The ‘hawks don’t want to be in the position of having to let Marcus Trufant hit the open market. Trufant is one of the best young corners in the league and, were he to hit free agency, could potentially garner the kind of monster offer Nate Clements received from San Francisco last season. Our bet is that Seattle comes to terms with Brown on a deal in the next few days, allowing them to tag Trufant.

You are welcome to consider the following as analysis or entertainment, as you see fit.

WEEK 16 of the 2O06 SEASON
Seven kickers score in double digits in week 16 last year:
10 Matt Bryant in TB 22-7 victory at Cle
11 David Akers in Phi 23-7 victory at Dal
12 Rob Bironas in Ten 30-29 victory at Buf
12 John Carney in NO 30-7 victory at NYG
14 Neil Rackers in Ari 26-20 victory at SF
14 Robbie Gould in Chi 26-20 victory at Det
17 Rian Lindell in Buf 29-20 loss against Ten

6 of 7 of those games featured teams that ended up with similar records (Chi-Det being the exception)
6 of 7 of those kickers played for the visiting team (Lindell being the exception)
6 of 7 of those kickers played for the team that won (Lindell being the exception)

WEEK 16 of the 2007 SEASON
Who are the visiting kickers this week in matchups of teams with similar records?
Lawrence Tynes: 9-5 NYG at 7-7 Buf
David Akers: 6-8 Phi at 7-7 NO
John Carney: 4-10 KC at 6-8 Det
Shaun Suisham: 7-7 Was at 8-6 Min

It’s only Wednesday and today’s optimism can be tomorrow’s disappointment…BUT, for those fantasy owners who feel like they’ve been fielding a patchwork team the last few weeks due to devastating injuries and killer bye weeks, it APPEARS that good news may be upon us.

While this is all preliminary (keep checking Footballguys.com for real-time updates as we receive them)…the following key players are hopeful of returning to the field in Week 7:

• QB Marc Bulger (STL) is hopeful that he’ll be able to start this week after missing time with his rib injury. He was on the active roster last week and is feeling much better. He’s still not 100% but he should be good enough to play.
• RB Joseph Addai (IND) is expected to practice this week and play in week seven against the Jaguars.
• WR Anquan Boldin (ARI) is expected to return to the starting line up this week after missing time with a hip injury. He ran some before the game Sunday and felt like his old self. “It’s the first time I’ve been able to explode, run routes and things like that, he said. “It isn’t sore today (Monday) so we’ll test it again Wednesday and see how it is.”
• WR Javon Walker (DEN) returned to practice this week. He missed the past two games with fluid in his surgically repaired right knee. Walker said he may take it easy in practice this week, but there is no way he is going to miss Sunday’s game. “It’s crunch time,” he said. “I got to be out there.” Walker said the knee won’t be completely healthy until after the season when he can rest it. “I have to play through it,” he said. “I’m ready to go.”
• WR Andre Johnson (HOU) could return this week when they host Tennessee. A decision won’t be known until at least Wednesday. “He’s progressing well; (we’re) very, very hopeful that he’s ready to go this week,” HC Gary Kubiak said. “We’ll run him tomorrow. We liked the progress we saw last week, so we’ve just kind of got our fingers crossed that he’s ready to go this week.”
• WR Marvin Harrison (IND) is expected to practice this week and play in week seven against the Jaguars.
  
• TE Vernon Davis (SF) is expected to return to practice this week and has a chance to play this weekend. When coach Mike Nolan was asked about Davis’ status for this week, he said, “It’s questionable. We’ll see how they practice on Wednesday. I’m hopeful.”

This has been a crazy year for quarterbacks. Many have been injured, and out for the year while some have been just plain inefficient.

Let’s look at some of the journeymen passers that either started in Week Five or might start in Week Six:

• Trent Dilfer (SF) – The consummate game manager and fantasy quarterback least likely for success. If he enters your fantasy lineup, you are probably doomed for a loss.
• Gus Frerotte (STL) — The veteran from Tulsa has played with several teams and knows coach Linehan’s system. But, we would be fooling ourselves if we thought he was a healthy Bulger’s peer. He is a desperate start in week six.
• David Carr or Vinny Testaverde (CAR) — Pick your poison. Which is worse? I see a toss up. Maybe Vinny would be able to find Steve Smith. I know he is not a tall fellow, but Smith should be easy to find if Kerry Colbert and Drew Carter are the other options.
• Kurt Warner (ARI) – He has a great matchup this week. But, how many games do we really expect before Warner is injured? Enter Tim Rattay. You know, the guy who could not beat out Kerry Collins. Gulp. Hang on to your hats, Boldin and Fitzgerald owners, it might be a bumpy ride.
• Kelly Holcomb (MIN) — We all know Holcomb as the guy who could not beat out Craig Nall or A.J. Feeley. With the receivers the Vikings have, would you really want to start Holcomb? Me either.

This list does not even include the likes of Daunte Culpepper, Cleo Lemon, and Byron Leftwich. This has been a rough year for passers getting hurt. Look for some additional passers to be benched from here on out for the young guns. This is the time in the fantasy season where it gets ugly, real ugly, for fantasy quarterbacks during the bye week crunch. So, good luck to those of you starting one of the above quarterbacks … you just might need it. If these guys were rock bands, they would not even make the amusement park circuit.

There’s an old adage: if you have two quarterbacks, you have none.

Ken Whisenhunt was putting that theory to the test in the early 2007 season as he was regularly replacing young “starter” Matt Leinart with former MVP Kurt Warner in certain situations. No sooner does ESPN film a nice puff piece where Warner and Leinart tell the world how “happy” they are with the situation, than Leinart’s season is ended thanks to a broken collarbone.

That opens the door for Kurt Warner to, once again, try to recapture the magic he showed while slinging the ball all over God’s creation in St. Louis. Will he be up to the task? And should fantasy owners view Warner as a possible fantasy star?

Consider:

• When Warner has had time throw in his career, he’s among the most accurate quarterbacks in history
  • The Cardinals have only given up 5 sacks in five games
• Larry Fitzgerald (healthy) and Anquan Boldin (hopefully healthy soon) are as dominant a WR tandem as the NFC offers
• HC Ken Whisenhunt has a history of producing highly efficient passers

The Verdict:

You could do a lot worse than acquire Warner off the waiver wire if he’s available. In limited action so far this season, Warner has complete more than 60% of his passes, is averaging an excellent 8.4 yards per attempt and has 4 TDs to just 1 Interception. If the Cardinals can keep him protected (as they have through the first five weeks), Warner could easily be what Matt Leinart hasn’t been; a viable fantasy starter.

Injuries are a part of the game. And yet, their impact never really gets easier to digest, does it? Week One was particularly brutal with injuries to myriad offensive linemen. Fantasy football scoring rules may not pay much attention to the offensive line, but we fantasy football owners know full well the importance of a great offensive line in keeping our fantasy stars healthy and productive.

Let’s run through this week’s offensive line woes and their potential impact on key fantasy players:

LT Orlando Pace (STL) out for the season

Orlando Pace has been the fixture of the Rams resurgence and is one of the few remaining pieces to their Super Bowl teams of the late 90s. While he may not be the league’s best tackle, he’s in the conversation year in, year out. Unfortunately he tore his labrum and rotator cuff in Week One and is done for the season. This marks the 2nd consecutive season season Pace’s year ended prematurely. HC Scott Linehan hasn’t decided on a course of action yet, but the most likely scenario involves moving RT Alex Barron to the left side and putting Adam Goldberg at RT.

Fantasy Impact:

• Last year, the Rams had Todd Steussie as a fallback plan, this year they don’t [Steussie is currently injured]
• QB Marc Bulger is now playing behind a fairly inexperienced line, and may face more pressure
• RB Steven Jackson won’t have his best offensive lineman opening holes for him
• TE Randy McMichael may be forced to stay in and block much more than fantasy owners hoped
• FB Brian Leonard will probably be on the field more, but may see less offensive touches

LT Jonathan Ogden (BAL) re-injures his toe

After sitting out the entire offseason and preseason schedule, Hall of Fame LT Jon Ogden was in the lineup for Week One only to pull himself from the game with toe pain; the same turf toe that’s bothered him going on nine months now. Ogden was replaced by Adam Terry at LT (moving over from RT) while rookie Marshall Yanda stepped into the RT spot.

Fantasy Impact:

• We don’t know the extent of Ogden’s injury yet, but it’s probably safe to assume he misses a game or two
• Although a healthy Ogden is an elite talent, the Ravens have prepared for his eventual retirement
• Supplemental draft choice Jared Gaither looked excellent playing LT during the preseason
• The Terry/Yanda swap also has potential
• QB Steve McNair isn’t as mobile as he used to be; the severity of Ogden’s turf toe will only be measured once we see how his replacement handles the pass rush
• RB Willis McGahee probably gets a minor downgrade, although I think Ravens fans would tell you that Ogden wasn’t being counted on 100% by the team anyway

RT Jon Jansen (WAS) dislocates ankle; lost for the season

RT Jon Jansen badly dislocated his ankle in Week One and is lost for the season; Jason LaConfora is reporting Jansen has been placed on injured reserve (IR).  Rookie Stephon Heyer stepped into the game and played sufficiently well in Jansen’s place. But according to team officials, it looks like veteran Todd Wade will assume the starting RT role from here on out, allowing rookie Heyer to learn the ropes and serve as the team’s emergency/swing tackle.

Fantasy Impact:

• Losing a tackle is never a good thing, but the Redskins are better off with Chris Samuels back from injury and Jansen out, if they had to be short one of them
• Wade struggled in his move to guard this preseason but is a natural and proven tackle; there won’t be as much falloff as some expect
• The addition of G Jason Kendall in early August plus a healthy Samuels should obfuscate some of the concern here
• Don’t downgrade the Redskins offensive players at this juncture

C Al Johnson (ARI) injures his knee; C Chucky Okobi signs as replacement

Al Johnson hurt his knee against the 49ers on Monday Night. Johnson had a solid preseason and was making all the line calls for a rebuilt Cardinals offensive line. While the severity of Johnson’s injury has yet to be formally announced, the team moved quickly to bring in veteran Chucky Okobi as his fill-in. Okobi was primarily a backup in Pittsburgh and played for Cardinals HC Ken Whisenhunt and AHC Russ Grimm.

Fantasy Impact:

• The Cardinals are “lucky” that Okobi was available; he knows the line calls inside and out and should start immediately
• Johnson is a good center, but he’s not a difference maker; and Okobi has experience on excellent, playoff-caliber lines

C Jeremy Newberry (OAK) injuries his hamstring; out “a few weeks”

Jeremy Newberry hurt his hamstring this week and is on record expecting to miss a “couple of weeks.” The team expects to start Jake Grove in his place.

Fantasy Impact:

• Grove has been a disappointment after being highly coveted out of college
• Grove lost the center competition to Newberry in a spirited camp battle
• Mild downgrade of LaMont Jordan
• Mild downgrade of Josh McCown

Agree/Disagree? Curious to hear your thoughts…

Training camp is TOUGH. Veterans hate it, some guys actually retire in order to avoid it. But camp is also a ray of hope, a chance to chase your dream. For some guys, their roster spots are assured and camp is simply a grind on the way toward competing for a playoff berth. But for many, camp is about EARNING their roster spot. With 90+ people invited to training camps but only 53-man rosters to open the season, there are a ton of hard-working athletes who go through the entire grind of the preseason only to be given an unemployment notice.

The stress of being visited by the Turk has to be unimaginable if you’re one of those fringe roster guys. A late round rookie at a position with considerable depth…a wily veteran facing a new coach and a youth movement…a 3rd stringer TE or QB who tries to play so well that the coaches feel compelled to find a spot for him.

But for as stressful as cut down day is across the league, at least you know it’s coming. The guys I feel bad for are a different sort. I feel bad for the guys who MAKE the 53-man roster, only to be released a day or two later.

September 1st rolls around, you bucked the odds, beat the system and have found your place on the TEAM. And then, a day or two later you unexpectedly get called into the coaches office and you’re told they’re “going in a different direction.” OUCH.

So in recognition of the guys who DON’T see it coming, here are a few of this year’s victims:

• WR Reche Caldwell (formerly New England Patriots) — Caldwell was considered the odd man out this offseason. After all, the Patriots acquired Randy Moss, Wes Welker, Donte Stallworth and Kelley Washington. But Caldwell played well throughout camp and made the final 53-man roster. That is, until the team opted to bring Marcellus Rivers back as an extra tight end.
• RB Jason Snelling (formerly Atlanta Falcons) — Jason Snelling was rock solid throughout camp and got important minutes in place of the injured Warrick Dunn. But when Dunn returned Snelling continued to impress; and seemed to have earned his role as the 3rd tailback; making the 53-man roster. Unfortunately, Artose Pinner’s gain is his loss.
• RB Quincy Wilson (formerly Cincinnati Bengals) — Seemed like he had locked down the 3rd RB spot behind Rudi Johnson and Kenny Watson, but apparently not.
• RB Rich Alexis (formerly St. Louis Rams) — Rich Alexis broke camp as the Rams 4th back. While he wasn’t likely to have contributed much on offense, he MADE IT. That is, until the Rams took notice of Antonio Pittman, the 4th round pick who was surprisingly cut by an uber-deep New Orleans squad.
• TE Ben Patrick (formerly Arizona Cardinals) — Ben Patrick was an uber-athletic prospect out of the University of Delaware who went to the Cardinals; a team desperate for TE help. Unfortunately, he was cut loose in favor of WR Jerheme Urban.

This is by no means an exhaustive list, just a sampling of some of the offensive players who thought their months of blood, sweat and tears had paid off; when in fact it really hadn’t.

Anquan Boldin appears to be focused on the 2007 season - and he feels that the rest of the Cardinals should be, too. He talked about his goals for the Cardinals in this article, by Kent Somers in the Arizona Republic on 9/1/07.

“I think it’s a critical year, period, not only for the fans but for ourselves, I think everything is in place now. We have the coaches that we wanted. I think we have the players in place… Everybody is tired of the Arizona Cardinals being looked down upon around the league.”

Teammate Matt Leinart added: “The expectations are higher, and we’ve placed them upon ourselves. But lip service is lip service. It doesn’t matter what we say; we’ve got to go out there and act upon it. That’s something we’re anxious to do and anxious to see how we are…The question is still out on us, obviously. If we play how we practice and we compete, I think we’re going to be a tough team, but until that happens, we’ll see what happens.”

When evaluating NFL players with an eye to their fantasy productivity, one of the factors that savvy owners include in their mental calculus is a player’s motivation level and attitude/work ethic. Certain players (LenDale White, for example) disappoint when considered by this criteria. From the sound of things, Boldin and Leinart have high morale and high expectations heading into the season - they have their “heads in the game”. Playing at an elite level in the NFL requires nothing less.

Though the Cardinals as a team are viewed with understandable skepticism by many NFL fans, fantasy owners shouldn’t let the malaise of seasons past cause them to undervalue the players on this offense - Leinart, Boldin and Fitzgerald appear primed for a huge season for their fantasy owners.

Continuing on…I thought it might be helpful to give you a few quick hitting comments on which players are rising and falling in MY (i.e., different than Dodds’) projections this preseason.

Up next, the NFC West:

RISING

• Matt Hasselbeck, SEA (Rank: QB11) — Shoulder looks healthy
• Shaun Alexander, SEA (Rank: RB12) — Still not in my top 10, but looks healthy
• Brian Leonard, STL (Rank: RB51) — Catching passes, Scoring TDs = compelling handcuff
• D.J. Hackett, SEA (Rank: WR37) — I wasn’t quickly sold on him, but have slowly become a believer
• Taylor Jacobs, SF (Rank: WR89) — Named WR3 in San Fran
• Marcus Pollard, SEA (Rank: TE17) — Fountain of youth + Holmgren’s praise = decent late round TE2

FALLING

• Torry Holt, STL (Rank: WR7) — Was ranked WR2 but slow recovery of knee = concern
• Nate Burleson, SEA (Rank: WR71) — Probably last man on Earth who believed he could start this year
• Ashley Lelie, SF (Rank: WR108) — Taylor Jacobs now WR3 in SF, Lelie could be waived
• Leonard Pope, ARI (Rank: TE40) — Having trouble holding off Troy Bienemann, ’nuff said

*** Note: As you might gather, my expectations for the Cardinals offense have changed very little this preseason, whereas my expectations for the Seahawks have improved incrementally due largely evidence that Hass and Alexander are healthy

Let’s hear your thoughts…where do you agree? Where do you disagree and why?

While it can be dangerous to read too much into the first “official” depth charts and the fluff pieces beat writers produce early in the preseason, there are always important nuggets to be gleaned from watching preseason games and carefully considering the comments of coaches and coordinators. Here’s a look at some of the changes in the IDP landscape thus far.Winners

• ILB Adalius Thomas — As was reported during OTAs, Thomas lined up all over the field last week but primarily at LILB. That’s often been the better tackling position in the Belichick scheme in recent years. Thomas looked a little uncomfortable inside at times but the combination of increased run support opportunity and pass rush skill may prove a lethal combination in the boxscore.
• DE Robert Geathers — After the team hinted that he would remain in a situational pass rushing role, Geathers played every down with the first team defense. Geathers has flashed decent run supporting skill in prior seasons and has 45 solo, 10 sack potential in the full time role.
• SS Deon Grant — Some felt Grant was in for a big bump in stats after leaving the limiting Jacksonville scheme for the greener Seahawk defense but the news that Grant would take on a more traditional strong safety role should make him an even safer bet for 2007.
• SS Chris Harris — Harris became a must roster after the Panthers acquired him from the Bears as camp began. Harris may not be a special NFL talent, but his IDP value goes from non-existent as a backup with Chicago to the starting SS in Carolina.
• WLB Landon Johnson — Another Bengal who looks to have a bigger role than initially expected, Johnson started with the first team last week. An underrated all-around backer, Johnson played well enough the first week to keep Ed Hartwell a backup MLB/WLB.
• OLB Antwan Peek — Peek isn’t a stud NFL talent, but Willie McGinest’s back surgery and Kamerion Wimbley’s beastly performance in the first preseason game could push Peek into every week starter status in big play leagues this year.

Losers

• OLB Chike Okeafor — Okeafor is likely out for the season after suffering a torn bicep muscle last week. Owners looking to use Okeafor as a DL and get OLB stat lines are going to have to find another option to exploit the “Bryan Thomas” classification loophole.
• MLB Ahmad Brooks — Caleb Miller replaced Brooks in nickel situations in the first preseason game despite earlier indications that Brooks would be an every down linebacker. There’s still time for Brooks to prove himself in coverage and the team has praised his effort in practice, but this isn’t a good start to 2007.
• FS Will Demps — The Giants began camp with Gibril Wilson at FS, James Butler at SS and Demps, who was one of the better producing free safeties in IDP leagues last year, on the second team. Demps is apparently rotating in with the first team again this week but the writing may be on the wall for him.
• MLB Brian Simmons — A nagging chronic knee problem and the surprisingly consistent play of last year’s starter Mark Simoneau has Simmons stuck on the second team. If Simmons can’t get on the field and impress soon, he’ll have a hard time securing any IDP value in 2007 without an injury to another starter.
• WLB Keith Ellison — While it may not be set in stone yet, Ellison sat in nickel situations during the first preseason game. Though it appears Ellison will shift with the offensive formation to remain a WLB on all base defensive snaps, sitting in the nickel will keep him from becoming more than a LB3.
• OLB Bryan Thomas — The NFL.com gamebook and Jets official depth chart has finally be updated to reflect Thomas’ correct position as an OLB. Those holding out hope that Thomas will remain a DL in your IDP league have hopefully already made other arrangements.

Other ongoing storylines:

Patrick Willis is still behind Derek Smith at RILB in the 49er base defense. Roman Harper looks fully recovered and may play linebacker in the nickel defense for New Orleans. Demorrio Williams has been cleared for contact nearly a month before he was expected to return and is running with the first team in Atlanta. Gibril Wilson has been tabbed for the big play FS role that Brian Dawkins played in Philadelphia. Eagle LB Takeo Spikes is turning heads in camp and may have recovered his sideline-to-sideline range.

Keep an eye on our free IDP centered message board at FootballGuys for breaking news and quick analysis on the defensive side of the ball. And watch for our new weekly IDP podcast on The Audible which will debut next week.

The Arizona Cardinal defense was dealt a serious blow after a MRI confirmed that DE/OLB Chike Okeafor suffered a torn left biceps last weekend. Okeafor is expected to undergo surgery and will likely miss the entire season while recovering and rehabbing his injury. Okeafor, a underrated veteran with the versatility to rush the passer and hold up against the run and pass in a two point stance, was expected to anchor the 3-4 defense the Cardinals had hoped to install in 2007. After his injury, the team’s ability to effectively run the 3-4 is in doubt.Early reports from team observers suggest that third year player Darryl Blackstock may get the first shot at replacing Okeafor. Blackstock, an undersized outside linebacker who was an impressive collegiate pass rusher, has not been impressive in two seasons and has yet to force his way into the lineup despite the team’s lack of depth and injury issues in recent years. He’s very unlikely to have an every down impact. Another inconsistent DE/OLB hybrid, Calvin Pace, will also see time in the 3-4 package. Like Blackstock, however, Pace will not provide what Okeafor added to the defense.

Other than scrapping the 3-4 looks completely, an option that hasn’t been mentioned in the local media is to shift Karlos Dansby outside. Dansby is currently slated to play inside with Gerald Hayes but would likely be a better all-around fit outside than either Blackstock or Pace. Dansby has shown good pass rush skill (17 sacks in 44 career games) and is the best cover backer on the Cardinal roster. Shifting Dansby outside would also get promising rookie Buster Davis into the lineup at ILB and allow Arizona to get its best linebackers on the field.

The FBG IDP team will be following this situation closely over the next couple of weeks. Should the team return to a predominantly 4-3 look or shift Dansby outside, the implications for many of its defenders in the boxscores will change significantly. Stay tuned to our offseason podcasts and IDP message board for the latest information on this and every other breaking story on the defensive side of the ball.