2.32: Phillip Merling, DE, Miami Dolphins

Pass rusher had some injury woes but was effective off the edge when healthy. Has the size (6′5″, 272 pounds) that Bill Parcells covets. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.33: Donnie Avery, WR, St. Louis Rams

Quite a surprise. The first WR off the board is a small, uber fast guy considered a mid round pick by most scouts. Hard to believe he can replace Isaac Bruce without a few years of seasoning. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.34: Devin Thomas, WR, Washington Redskins (via Oakland through Atlanta)

The Redskins draft the WR many expected to be first off the WR board. Devin Thomas only had one big year at Michigan but has great size (6′2″, 215 pounds) and can also help as a kickoff returner. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.35: Brandon Flowers, CB, Kansas City Chiefs

If Flowers ran a tenth of a second faster, he would’ve been a mid 1st rounder. Great choice for the rebuilding Chiefs. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.36: Jordy Nelson, WR, Green Bay Packers (via New York Jets)

Another surprising WR selection. Was WR really a need for Green Bay with Driver, Jennings and Jones on the roster? Should help on special teams right away. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.37: Curtis Lofton, LB, Atlanta Falcons

Tackling machine, ideally suited for the inside where he can flow downfield to the ball. Not someone good in space and must be put in the right scheme to succeed. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.38: John Carlson, TE, Seattle Seahawks (via Baltimore)

Mike Holmgren called this a need, and the ‘hawks felt Carlson was a perfect fit for their West Coast offense. Carlson put up big numbers with Brady Quinn under center, as a reminder. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.39: Chilo Rachal, OG, San Francisco 49ers

Rachal gets knocked for not being a great athlete, but he’s technically sound and has a mean streak. As long as he plays inside and isn’t asked to pull and extend to the 2nd level much, he could be a starter immediately. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.40: Tracy Porter, CB, New Orleans Saints

Ironic that the Saints draft a cornerback with the 40th pick; considering there were rumors all week that the 40th pick would be part of a package to acquire Eagles CB Lito Sheppard. Porter is good at tracking the ball but isn’t a sure tackler or much help supporting the run.

2.41: James Hardy, WR, Buffalo Bills

The Bills landed the top corner in the draft last round and, in my opinion, the best receiver in the draft at 2.41. Hardy is a big guy who isn’t afraid of contact. He goes up for the ball and runs good routes; which helps offset a lack of breakaway speed.

2.42: Eddie Royal, WR, Denver Broncos

Royal is one of a handful of receivers who also project as solid returner at the next level. At only 5′8″, 184 pounds, Royal will need to prove he can hold up as a receiver over the course of the season. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.43: Tyrell Johnson, S, Minnesota Vikings (via Carolina through Philadelphia)

Kenny Phillips has the bigger name, but Johnson may have the bigger game. The Vikes continue to bolster their defense with another solid young, physical player. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.44: Matt Forte, RB, Chicago Bears

I’m not crazy about Forte; I don’t believe he’s a special back nor was he the best back left on the board. However, Forte has his supporters and it’s not inconceivable he could earn the starting gig over Cedric Benson sooner rather than later.

2.45: Jordon Dizon, OLB, Detroit Lions

Dizon lacks ideal size and speed; but like many solid NFL linebackers before him, he just makes plays. He’s instinctive and a sound tackler; exactly the kind of guy Rod Marinelli can build around. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.46: Jerome Simpson, WR, Cincinnati Bengals

Further proof that beauty is in the eye of the beholder at WR this year. Simpson wasn’t close to the best WR prospect on the board, but clearly the Bengals felt otherwise. At least, this pick fills a need given the release of Chris Henry and concerns about Chad Johnson’s status.

2.47: Trevor Laws, DT, Philadelphia Eagles (via Minnesota)

The Eagles finally make a pick, and it’s clearly a “best player available” selection. Defensive tackle was hardly a major need, but Laws is a high character, high motor guy who will add depth to an already young tackle rotation.

2.48: Fred Davis, TE, Washington Redskins (via Houston through Atlanta)

The Redskins are committed to getting QB Jason Campbell weapons. First Devin Thomas and now a pass-receiving tight end a few picks later. Davis doesn’t project into an elite tight end, but the Redskins don’t need him to be given the presence of Chris Cooley.

2.49: DeSean Jackson, WR/KR, Philadelphia Eagles

Many Birds fans wouldn’t have complained if Jackson was the pick in the 1st round. So to trade down, grab a 2009 1st rounder as compensation and get DeSean anyway was a coup. He’s tiny (169 pounds) but is blazing fast and unstoppable in the open field. He instantly gives the Eagles the best returner they’ve had in 5 years.

2.50: Calais Campbell, DE, Arizona Cardinals

You don’t find many 6′8″, 280 pound ends; yet Campbell fell into the 2nd round because of an uneven 2007 season. He was a stud in 2006 and, as long as the Cards play him at the right position, should combine with free agent Clark Haggans to improve the Cards pass rush.

2.51: Malcolm Kelly, WR, Washington Redskins

Sure, he’s slower than you would like. But have teams watched this kid play? He’s a polished route runner, has great hands and excellent body control. Very reminiscent of the year Chad Johnson fell because of his slow 40-time; the Skins got a steal.

2.52: Quentin Groves, DE, Jacksonville Jaguars (via Tampa Bay)

The Jags have a stifling defense already, but they aren’t great at putting pressure on opposing QBs. Adding Quentin Groves in the 2nd after taking Derrick Harvey 8th overall goes a long way to changing the Jags pass rush. Groves character issues aside, this was a solid pick.

2.53: Limas Sweed, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers

Some scouts love Sweed, some see him as a bust. At 53rd overall, the Steelers aren’t risking a lot financially to find out if he’s the next Plaxico Burress. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.54: Jason Jones, DE, Tennessee Titans

Jones could replace Antwan Odom right away, but he’s a bit raw to expect that. Eventually the Titans see Jones as a capable 2-way end in their 4-3 defense. His skill set is more suited to defensive tackle, but his size projects him as an end.

2.55: Ray Rice, RB, Baltimore Ravens (via Seattle)

Ray Rice is a local product who was wildly productive as the main ball carrier for Rutgers. While he lacks prototypical size, his low center of gravity and style make him more than capable of being an every down back if needed.

2.56: Brian Brohm, QB, Green Bay Packers (via Cleveland)

Now that’s kind of surprising. Or is it? The Pack took Aaron Rodgers in the 1st when Brett Favre was under center, so why wouldn’t they take the most accurate QB prospect in the 2nd round given Rodgers inexperience? Worst case, he’s a backup for a few years. Best case, he outplays Rodgers and ends up starting in a year or two.

2.57: Chad Henne, QB, Miami Dolphins (via San Diego)

How about that? It looks like Jake Long may be blocking for Chad Henne for a few more years. Another smart pick. He could easily outplay Beck and McCown to win the job; at the very lesaet he’s a big armed, young backup for a good price.

2.58: Dexter Jackson, WR/KR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (via Jacksonville)

This was a reach pick. While Jackson is another potentially dangerous return man; he needs a lot of maturing as a route runner before he can reasonably play WR on a regular basis. Blistering speed (4.33) though and dangerous in the open field.

2.59: Mike Pollak, OG/C, Indianapolis Colts

A classic Colts pick. Their only 1st day pick and it’s a fundamentally sound center that they project as a starting offensive guard for now and possibly a replacement for Jeff Saturday later. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.60: Patrick Lee, DB, Green Bay Packers

A hard worker, Lee may someday start at corner but not for a few seasons. In the meantime, he can be a force on special teams and perhaps play nickel back particularly in run support situations. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.61: Martellus Bennett, TE, Dallas Cowboys

I like this pick more than most. For my money, Bennett was the top TE in this draft. He’s huge, is a good blocker who can become great, and should be a key red zone target given his height and willingness to go up for the ball. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.62: Terrence Wheatley, CB, New England Patriots

The Pats always seem to find value and this was no exception. Wheatley is a legitimate shutdown cover corner who, were it not for myriad injuries in college, would’ve been in the hunt for a top 15 selection. Either way, he’ll help the Pats on defense and special teams.

2.63: Terrell Thomas, CB, New York Giants

Thomas is the 217th USC Trojan to be drafted in the first two rounds (not really, just feels that way). If the Giants view him as a corner, I don’t like this pick. But if they’re going to try to convert him to safety; where his deficiencies can be obfuscated somewhat, the choice makes more sense.

OT Ryan Clady is the Broncos choice with the 12th overall selection. Clady, a junior out of Boise State, should compete for the starting spot from Day One. Because of his athleticism, and the Broncos needs along the O-line, Clady could start on the right side as a rookie, with a move to LT in a year or two.

Fantasy Impact: The Broncos always seem to find a way to run the ball no matter who their RB is or what their offensive line looks like. But the last few years the line has seen a lot of turnover and, with a young QB (Jay Cutler), this was very much a need pick. Assuming Clady lives up to his draft spot, this could go a long way to returning the Broncos offensive players to intriguing fantasy options.

CB Leodis McKelvin becomes the first cornerback off the board; and likely starts a run on cornerbacks in the next part of the 1st round. McKelvin may not have played at a big program (Troy), but his game film is impeccable and he more than held his own at postseason bowls and workouts. He’s a physical cover corner with fluid hips and, most importantly, is a special PR/KR to boot. The Bills get help at corner and the return man they were desperate for.

Fantasy Impact: If McKelvin is as talented a returner as we think, the Bills fantasy defense could be an intriguing sleeper particularly if you get points for return yardage.

A few years ago, the Broncos elevated Ted Sundquist’s status within the organization, in a move to de-lever Mike Shanahan’s control on the organization. Shanahan, like many other coaches in the late 90s and early part of this decade, was able to become the de factor GM in addition to head coach. And like most of those coaches, it eventually became apparent that it’s probably not the ideal situation. Coaching an NFL team is a full-time job and then some. Successfully managing a team’s personnel needs including contract terms, free agency and draft preparation is, also, a full-time job many times over.

Enter Sundquist. Sundquist was the long-time director of player personnel and effectively answered to Shanahan. But in 2002, ownership promoted Sundquist to the role of General Manager which SUPPOSED to give him more power and autonomy.

Yet, those close to the Denver situation never really believed Shanahan lost ultimate say. Which is why today’s firing of Sundquist is an odd one. Yes, the Broncos haven’t been as competitive in the 2000s as they were in Shanahan’s early years. But, if Shanny never really lost control of personnel decisions, why must Sundquist go? Was it REALLY his fault?

At some point, Shanahan is going to run out of other people to blame for the Broncos recent return to mediocrity. But, at least for another season, it appears he’s found a scapegoat.

Denver Broncos

The Broncos don’t have any free agents that are obvious fits for either the franchise or transition tag designation.

Kansas City Chiefs

DE Jared Allen

The Chiefs are expected to tag Jared Allen with an eye toward signing him to a long-term deal before the July 15th deadline. Allen had 15.5 sacks this season and has averaged 11 sacks per season over his 4-year career. Pass rushers of Allen’s ability simply don’t get into the open market very often.

Oakland Raiders

CB Nmandi Asomugha

Rumors persist that Asomugha will be franchised if the team can’t come to terms on a long-term deal before the tagging deadline. The 5-year veteran is considered a cornerstone of the team’s young, energetic defense and; given the price of free agent corners, it might not be as shocking a decision to tag him as one might think. That said, Asomugha is coming off a disappointing season following his breakout 2006 campaign. The team wouldn’t be tagging Asomugha for the player he already is; but rather for the player they think he can become.

San Diego Chargers

The Chargers don’t have many key free agents, and aren’t likely to utilize their tag designations.

Interesting comments in the Denver Post from Broncos head coach Mike Shanahan regarding the future of RB Selvin Young:

Selvin Young is ideal for 10 to 15 carries a game, but Shanahan said he’s not a 20-to-25 carry back.

“No, definitely not,” Shanahan said. “Any time a guy’s been hurt as many times as he did, you know that there’s no possible way he can carry the ball 20, 25 times a game. The body just won’t hold up. He went down too many times this year. But you are looking at a guy that you know has big-play potential.”

Not really a surprise, but given the struggles of Travis Henry this season, it seems a foregone conclusion that Denver will ONCE AGAIN be looking for someone new to carry the load at the RB position. It was Young, not Henry, who led the Broncos in rushing this season, marking the FIFTH CONSECUTIVE season that someone different topped Denver’s RB ledger:

It’s hard not to notice the diminishing returns the Broncos have gotten from their lead rusher since Clinton Portis’ trade. This year Travis Henry was supposed to erase the need for a committee approach, but nagging injuries and legal concerns regarding a possible failed drug test curtailed a strong start to the season.

Will Henry be back and, if so, provide the 1,400+ yards we forecast for him in 2007? According to the Post article, only if he’s willing to take a significant pay cut. With so many mouths to feed, and a history of financial problems, somehow I wonder if Henry will be willing to do that.

Travis Henry got off to a great start but has struggled a bit of late; partially because of the Broncos overall struggles but also because of some injured ribs. More importantly to fantasy owners though is the looming suspension he faces if his appeal of a positive urine test is upheld. While the potential for suspension remains quite high (and by now you’ve either grabbed his backups or have missed the boat); he’s too valuable to not make the most of while his lawyers try to extend his season.

This week news came that Henry’s appeal won’t be heard for at least another two weeks.

An NFL spokesman confirmed Henry’s league appeal is set to be heard Nov. 16 in New York, but like the previous assigned date, it could be moved back again. His appeal for a possible suspension for a positive drug test previously had been set for Monday. The current appeal date is scheduled three days before Denver hosts Tennessee, the team Henry played for before signing with Denver as a free agent. Henry’s future with the Broncos might not be decided until weeks after the NFL hearing date.

That means, if his ribs are OK, Henry will be toting the rock for another few games.  At this point you have one choice: Rely on him while he’s active.

With Travis Henry out with injury, the rookie from Texas looked very good against a tough Packer defense on Monday night. The 5′11″, 215-pound former Longhorn displayed the varsatility the Broncos love with 71 yards rushing (on 18 carries) and 49 yards receiving. Averaging almost 4.0 ypc against the Packers is a feat unto itself. They are averaging just 3.83 on the season and have contained some good ball carriers this season.

There is a “but” coming. Contrary to what many believe, the Texas star will have to split carries. This is the same Selvin Young that did not lead his college team in carries for any of his years as a Texas Longhorn. He split carries with Cedric Benson, Jamaal Charles, and Vince Young. In fact, the most carries Selvin Young had in any one college season was 137. This was just 11 carries a game.

Young was used as the change of pace back. He is a very good receiver and is nifty in the open field. But, the issue arises when people begin extrapolating out the 18 carries Young had in prime time on Monday Night Football. With the Travis Henry suspension ruling coming soon, Young looks to be a big part of the Bronco offense going forward. But, expect him to either split time or start getting nicked.

It’s only Wednesday and today’s optimism can be tomorrow’s disappointment…BUT, for those fantasy owners who feel like they’ve been fielding a patchwork team the last few weeks due to devastating injuries and killer bye weeks, it APPEARS that good news may be upon us.

While this is all preliminary (keep checking Footballguys.com for real-time updates as we receive them)…the following key players are hopeful of returning to the field in Week 7:

• QB Marc Bulger (STL) is hopeful that he’ll be able to start this week after missing time with his rib injury. He was on the active roster last week and is feeling much better. He’s still not 100% but he should be good enough to play.
• RB Joseph Addai (IND) is expected to practice this week and play in week seven against the Jaguars.
• WR Anquan Boldin (ARI) is expected to return to the starting line up this week after missing time with a hip injury. He ran some before the game Sunday and felt like his old self. “It’s the first time I’ve been able to explode, run routes and things like that, he said. “It isn’t sore today (Monday) so we’ll test it again Wednesday and see how it is.”
• WR Javon Walker (DEN) returned to practice this week. He missed the past two games with fluid in his surgically repaired right knee. Walker said he may take it easy in practice this week, but there is no way he is going to miss Sunday’s game. “It’s crunch time,” he said. “I got to be out there.” Walker said the knee won’t be completely healthy until after the season when he can rest it. “I have to play through it,” he said. “I’m ready to go.”
• WR Andre Johnson (HOU) could return this week when they host Tennessee. A decision won’t be known until at least Wednesday. “He’s progressing well; (we’re) very, very hopeful that he’s ready to go this week,” HC Gary Kubiak said. “We’ll run him tomorrow. We liked the progress we saw last week, so we’ve just kind of got our fingers crossed that he’s ready to go this week.”
• WR Marvin Harrison (IND) is expected to practice this week and play in week seven against the Jaguars.
  
• TE Vernon Davis (SF) is expected to return to practice this week and has a chance to play this weekend. When coach Mike Nolan was asked about Davis’ status for this week, he said, “It’s questionable. We’ll see how they practice on Wednesday. I’m hopeful.”

Earth-shattering news today out of Colorado as it’s reported that Travis Henry has tested positive for marijuana and, as a result, could be facing a 1-year suspension for repeat violation of the NFL’s substance abuse policy.

According to several reports, Henry is suing to get an injunction claiming that the league failed to follow proper procedure by allowing Henry’s constituents to be present during the testing of his urine sample.

While it’s impossible to know whether Henry has a legal ground to stand on, the fact is he’s not denied using marijuana but is rather trying to get off on a technicality. If you’re one of the many who drafted Henry this year in the late 1st or early 2nd round (myself included) this is an incredibly disappointing blow given his early success as a Denver Bronco.

Obviously Henry shouldn’t be dropped until (if?) he’s officially suspended, but you need to run, not walk to your league’s waiver wire and try to lay claim to Selvin Young if he’s not already on someone’s roster. The bad news is that Henry hurt his ankle in Week Four and, as a result, many might have already taken a flier on Young. If you weren’t the guy who grabbed the young runner from UT, you could have been dealt a SERIOUS fantasy blow today.

This brings up a broader question of whether we fantasy owners appropriately discount players with known off-the-field issues. While we don’t know Henry personally, it’s pretty clear that he’s not exactly the brightest bulb in the room. Aside from his much publicized issues with fathering children out of wedlock, he’s also faced near bankruptcy and has tested positive for drug use before.

If you’re in a deep league, one where backup RBs are rostered long before they have the opportunity to see the field; there are two NFL backups that a) are flying under the radar and b) are worth rostering.

Selvin Young, Denver Broncos

Broncos HC Mike Shanahan is no stranger to flip flopping his RBs up and down the depth chart. Last year, unheralded rookie Mike Bell ended up starting the season and playing a major role. With Travis Henry in the fold, there is no longer any question about who the starter is; but Henry is no stranger to injury and given the Broncos system, any backup RB2 is worth rostering JUST IN CASE. Olandis Gary had 1,000 yards. Mike Anderson had 1,500 yards. Quentin Griffin had a few big games. Mike and Tatum Bell had big games. Reuben Droughns had 1,200+ yards. Plug and Play is the name of the game.

Which brings us to Selvin Young. You may remember the name if you’re a college football fan. Young was the starting tailback for the University of Texas in the National Championship game versus USC. He was a 5-year player who started the majority of his senior year but was primarily a returner/backup prior to that. Young went undrafted and came into Broncos camp as the 5th string RB; unlikely to make the roster. But consistent, heady play and a clear affinity for the Broncos’ one-cut system earned him the RB2 role. He’s available in the majority of public leagues; including Yahoo! and ESPN. If you have a spot on your roster, grab him up particularly if you have Travis Henry.

Derrick Ward, New York Giants

When Tiki Barber retired, a lot of skeptics wondered if Brandon Jacobs was capable of carrying the load. Then the Giants acquired Reuben Droughns in a trade with Cleveland. Droughns is a two-time 1,200-yard rusher and many thought he would combine with Jacobs for a committee running attack. Yet, as the preseason wore on, it became apparent that a) Jacobs is ready, willing and able to be the main workhorse, b) the coaches are going to give Jacobs that chance and c) Droughns was no threat to his playing time.

Yet, in every draft I participated in this year, Droughns was drafted. It would be one thing if Droughns was really the Giants RB2, but he’s not. Droughns has been moved to fullback because of an injury to Robert Douglas. The REAL Giants backup is Derrick Ward. Ward, the 5′11″, 233-pound bruiser out of Ottawa University, is entering his third season in New York and has run with power and authority in the preseason. Ward, not Droughns, is listed #2 on the depth chart; yet most football fans haven’t put 2+2 together. If you’re have Brandon Jacobs on your roster, OR have Reuben Droughns on your bench, do yourself a favor and dump Droughns and/or acquire Derrick Ward ASAP.

The dynasty value of Mike Bell has taken a huge hit in the last two weeks. He goes from being the number one option behind a nicked up Travis Henry to a fullback. WOW! What a rough couple of weeks.

But, in dynasty leagues, this is the time to buy … and buy low. Bell had a good rookie season and now is left for dead. Rookie Selvin Young is now the backup RB in Denver. But, it might be a false assumption to believe that Young would be depended on if something happened to Henry. There is a good chance that the Broncos would go with the one back on the team they are comfortable with, Mike Bell.

In limited action in 2006, Bell was RB29 in limited duty. This was as a rookie. He averaged 4.3 yards per carry on an average of ten carries a game. Those carries resulted in rushing yards and 10 receiving yards all while splitting carries with Tatum Bell. Tatum had 50% more carries than Mike, but still had fewer fantasy points.

Given the uncertainty of the Broncos rushing game, Mike Bell is a player you want to target for your dynasty team.

Every year, there are a number of second- and third-year defensive ends that break out as they grow into their position physically and mentally. Last year, saw Robert Geathers, Bobby McCray and Aaron Kampman explode onto the NFL scene with double digit sacks. Veteran IDPers know how important it is to find undervalued defensive players late in drafts and on the waiver wire and there looks to be a deeper list of candidates along the defensive line this season than any in recent memory. Don’t forget about Geathers and McCray, who will both have expanded roles this year, but keep a watchful eye on the following candidates to grab late in your draft or as early season free agents.

Stanley McClover (CAR) — McClover declared for the 2006 draft as a college junior and fell to the seventh round due to concerns about his physical maturity. McClover spent most of 2006 on the inactive lists, learning from Julius Peppers and Mike Rucker. After adding 15 pounds to his already considerable edge rushing skills, McClover’s solid offseason may have earned him the majority of snaps in the base defense this year. He may still rotate with Mike Rucker and Charles Johnson, but has big potential if he can get 40 or more snaps a game.

Ray Edwards (MIN) — The Vikings have been waiting for someone to stay healthy and productive long enough to generate a consistent pass rush. Kenechi Udeze hasn’t been able to do it, neither has Erasmus James. Edwards flashed at times last year and has been given the RDE job. His primary responsibility will be rushing the quarterback in Leslie Frazier’s aggressive scheme.

Elvis Dumervil (DEN) — I suggested avoiding Dumervil in IDP leagues in one of my weekly Reading the Defense subscriber columns last season, dismissing him as a situational pass rusher. Two things have changed since then. First, Dumervil gets the benefit of lining up a little wider in Jim Bates’ defensive scheme, which will give him a better angle to get to the quarterback and allow him to maximize his speed rush while minimizing his size disadvantage. Second, the loss of Ebenezer Ekuban will significantly increase Dumervil’s snaps. Dumervil showed his explosiveness in 2006 and may better those numbers in 2007. A must roster in big play leagues.

Darryl Tapp (SEA) — With the mediocre Grant Wistrom and Bryce Fisher finally on the outs, Tapp gets his opportunity in 2007. Another undersized pass rusher who took some extra time to mature, Tapp will start opposite free agent acquisition Patrick Kerney. If he can hold up as an every down player, Tapp also has big pass rush potential.

Justin Tuck (NYG) — Tuck’s value is dependent on Michael Strahan staying home. After getting lost in the depth the Giants had at end over the past two seasons, Tuck is in line for a starting job if Strahan elects not to play with Mathias Kiwanuka moved to SLB. Tuck is a very solid all-around defensive end and opposing offensive coordinators will be focusing on Osi Umenyiora. Tuck is very likely to go undrafted, but needs to be watched very closely if Strahan sits.

Mario Williams (HOU) — Williams is probably still valued by most casual IDP owners on name recognition. He should be firmly on your radar should he slip. Williams wasn’t nearly as bad as the media made him out to be last year when comparing him to Reggie Bush. Struggling through a toe problem, Williams held his own. With his explosiveness likely back in 2007, we may finally see the all-around talent that made him the first overall pick last year.

Jamaal Anderson (ATL) — Anderson is the only 2007 rookie on this list. Rookie defensive ends rarely have an every-down impact but those that do (Hali, Peppers, etc) often fit Anderson’s profile. Impact rookie defensive ends are usually mostly polished players. They have a solid frame to stand up at the point of attack. They have some understanding of how to use their hands and lower body in leverage. They have more than one pass rush move. You’ll find a one-trick pass rusher (Dwight Freeney) or situational stud (Mark Anderson) now and then, but the rookie DEs to target in IDP redrafts are those with the best all-around skill sets.

Continuing on…I thought it might be helpful to give you a few quick hitting comments on which players are rising and falling in MY (i.e., different than Dodds’) projections this preseason.

Up next, the AFC West:

RISING

• Daunte Culpepper, OAK (Rank: QB24) — Healthy + Playing well + JaMarcus holding out
• Damon Huard, KC (Rank: QB32) — Named Week One starter
• LaMont Jordan, OAK (Rank: RB25) — Healthy, scoring TDs and catching passes
• Cecil Sapp, DEN (Rank: RB62) — Listed 2nd on depth chart
• Darren Sproles, SD (Rank: RB74) — Making plays + Turner high ankle sprain
• Vincent Jackson, SD (Rank: WR26) — Has shown a lot his preseason, clear cut WR1
• Jerry Porter, OAK (Rank: WR36) — Out of doghouse, Oakland actually has real coaches this year
• Craig Davis, SD (Rank: WR61) — Pushing for starting spot as a rook
• Daniel Graham, DEN (Rank: TE23) — Both he and Scheffler will be involved in passing game

FALLING

• JaMarcus Russell, OAK (Rank: QB35) — Holding out + Culpepper in town
• Brodie Croyle, KC (Rank: QB37) — Poor preseason + Huard named starter
• Michael Turner, SD (Rank: RB45) — High ankle sprain late in August
• Mike Bell, DEN (Rank: RB48) — Listed 3rd on depth chart
• Dominic Rhodes, OAK (Rank: RB51) — Suspended + Average talent + Lots of RB depth in OAK
• Brandon Marshall, DEN (Rank: WR53) — Spent too much of preseason in dog house
• Malcolm Floyd, SD (Rank: WR74) — Rookie Davis pushing to start

Let’s hear your thoughts…where do you agree? Where do you disagree and why?

…they were three of the top 4 receivers in the 2006 preseason.

• Greg Jennings, GB — 328 yards
• Jamaica Rector, DAL — 245 yards
• Brandon Childress, NE –214 yards
• David Kircus, DEN — 214 yards

Point being folks…trust your projections, trust your rankings. Yes, the preseason game action can help clarify situations. If a player is running with the 1st team consistently, it’s probably a good idea to make sure his projections reflect that. But don’t forget that preseason stats are really useless without context. So before you start downgrading stud receivers who haven’t been targeted (i.e., Jerricho Cotchery) and upgrading nobodies; remember that sound analysis and understanding of a team’s depth chart are as important, if not more so, than what their preseason game stat totals look like.

The composition of the Denver Bronco’s wide receivers’ stable is changing drastically, with veteran Rod Smith sidelined due to ongoing hip problems and a youth movement at the position. In the midst of this transition, Javon Walker is becoming the team’s leader at wide receiver, according to a Denver Post story by Bill Williamson.

From the fantasy perspective, Walker appears to be very focused on high achievement this season. Is the intensity due to his involvement in the tragic death of Darrent Williams on New Years Day 2007? Walker hasn’t addressed the murder of his friend publicly yet (reports out of Denver at the time indicated that Williams died in Walker’s arms). Whatever the source of his drive, Walker’s urgency is translating to a lot of impressive plays on the field, according to multiple reports out of training camp (including the one linked above).

One thing is clear - Walker has all the right pieces in place for a monster season - opportunity, talent, hard work, renewed health, and a focused intensity driving him to excel. Don’t sleep on him during your fantasy draft this year.

Following up on Will Grant’s post about what to look for during the preseason games, I thought I’d post a link to the NFL’s pre-season television schedule. This week we have five games on tap:

• Thu., Aug. 9 Indianapolis at Dallas FOX (8 p.m.)
• Fri., Aug. 10 Buffalo at New Orleans CBS (8 p.m.)
• Sat, Aug. 11 Washington at Tennessee NFLN (8 p.m.)
• Sun, Aug. 12 Seattle at San Diego NBC (8 p.m.)
• Mon, Aug. 13 Denver at San Francisco ESPN (8 p.m.)

Below are a few story lines of interest to fantasy owners regarding the above games.

On Thursday, we’ll get a glimpse of Tony Romo’s progress entering his second year as the starter for Dallas (likely we’ll see very little of Peyton Manning, Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne). Friday will give us an idea how resilient the Saints’ first team is this year after their embarrassment at the hands of “Blitzburgh” during the Hall of Fame game. Saturday, young guns Jason Campbell and Vince Young will be under the microscope of fantasy owners everywhere - who has made strides in his development so far? Will Young throw another punch with his throwing hand? Stay tuned, sports fans! Deion Branch has been enjoying his first full training camp with the Seahawks - can he and Matt Hasselbeck form a strong #1 tandem (replacing the Hasselbeck/Darrell Jackson connection), starting on Sunday? Is D.J. Hackett actually getting pushed by Nate Burleson, or was that a false camp rumor? On Monday, we’ll see if Jay Cutler is simpatico with Javon Walker and Daniel Graham, and who will line up as the team’s #2 WR. Alex Smith enters the game without his top RB, Frank Gore - how will the 49ers adjust their attack to compensate for the absent (broken hand) Gore?

Don’t you just love football season? Get ready to rummmbllle fantasy owners everywhere - the game is BACK ON!

You’ve seen Brandon Marshall demonstrate his ability to fight through the jam, make a fingertip catch, keep his balance and look to make plays after the catch. He’s not going to fail because he’s a stiff, and he’s not going to fail because his hands are unreliable. What about his bread and butter skills, the intangibles that you can’t teach?

Exhibit B: Technique

You Tube Highlight

So, what did we learn? Yes, Jay Cutler certainly could have put a little more touch on that ball and had an easy touchdown, but let’s stay on the topic at hand, Brandon Marshall. Why should we be impressed with what Brandon Marshall did here?

1. He executes the toe drag like he does it in his sleep. Since this play was under review, we have the luxury of slow motion replays from multiple angles. Go to the reply at 2:00. Marshall starts dragging his right foot before he catches the ball. He does it effortlessly, like it’s automatic. Remember that most of the time you see good toe drags, the receiver has a chance to gather and shorten their stride before they reach the sideline. Marshall was still moving a good clip when he executed this toe drag
2. He instinctively knows where he is on the field. Marshall never looks down to see where he is in relation to the sideline. There’s absolutely no way he could have made this catch if he did. He is completely focused on the ball in flight. Watch that replay at 2:00 again. His left foot is placed down confidently with mere inches between his toe and the sideline. This tells us that Marshall just “knows” where he is on the field, and again “not thinking” is an important element here. Maybe Marshall was just lucky, but it sure looks like he meant to place his left foot exactly where it ends up.
3. He makes the catch, mostly with one hand, so that he can use the other hand to cushion his landing. Again we Marshall demonstrate his natural inclination to pluck the ball out of the air, but fluidly enough to absorb the energy of the ball. Again we see Marshall do one of those “little things” that can be the difference between making a play and not making a play. How many time do you seem someone make a catch like this, only to lose the ball when they land hard?

Other than the typical disclaimer that this is just one play, this might seem unconvincing because, well, it’s what a wide receiver is supposed to do. It’s easy to forget that Marshall is a super-sized wide receiver at 6′4″ 220+ while watching that clip. Size/speed freaks at the wide receiver are often less than excellent when it comes to finishing plays and doing the little things, that won’t be a problem for Marshall. I believe that Marshall also illustrates the “game happening slower” gift (aka “being in the zone”), those moments when a player does all the right things with no hesitation, no thinking.

While Marshall’s hands, technique, and ability to concentrate while multitasking are all excellent, none of them are the skill that made Marshall the talk of the NFL for one night last year.

Next Up: Exhibit C - Running After The Catch

My belief that Brandon Marshall one of the “next big things” at wide receiver is one of the worst kept secrets at Footballguys. Right now, he can be yours for the low, low ADP of WR47 and player 130 overall. You can add Marshall around the time teams start to think about kickers and defenses that aren’t the Bears or Ravens, that is unless I’m in your league. Why should you? Situationally, Marshall is set up for success, inheriting the #2 role from Rod Smith (who is still only rehabbing his surgically repaired hip in a pool), and clearly being “on the same page” as QB Jay Cutler. Marshall can take advantage of this opportunity because he possesses one of the most dazzling skillsets of any young wide receiver in the league:

Exhibit A: Hands

YouTube Highlight

Some of the highly touted physical specimens at wide receiver have ultimately been the victim of bad hands. Brandon Marshall will not be one of them. His soft hands and ability to pluck the ball out of the air are evident on this 20 yard in. Marshall’s fluid technique catching the ball absorbs the force of the arriving ball and allows him to make the fingertip catch. He doesn’t jab at the ball, he positions his hands around the path the ball and cushions the ball. Two other things are evident in this clip:

• Ability to fight through jam: Watch the replay at :58 for a demonstration of how Marshall handles press coverage. What he does to disengage from Antonio Cromartie is almost a “swim” move. John Madden notes that once he gets inside of Cromartie, the whole middle of the field is his. He does it quickly enough to not disrupt the timing of the route, and notice that once he’s in the route, he makes fellow rookie Cromartie, who is an exceptional athlete, look slow and lost
• Body Control: Marshall extends to make the fingertip catch, but has the body control to keep his balance and keep his momentum going forward. By the time he makes his third step after the catch, he’s already putting a move on safety Bhawoh Jue. He also appears to be very controlled and precise while throttling down to make the in cut

Next up: Exhibit B - Technique

In this thead at the footballguys message board, a poster named “Lash” points out that the San Diego Chargers figure to get lots of games this year against inexperienced quarterbacks. Indeed, playing in a division where the opposing starting quarterbacks are potentially JaMarcus Russell, Brodie Croyle, and Jay Cutler might lead to some big games for the Chargers’ defense.

That, combined with the fact that the Chargers themselves don’t exactly have a ten-year vet at the helm, prompted me to see, just for fun, if any division has ever had such a collective lack of experience at the quarterback position. It turns out that, even if Josh McCown and/or Damon Huard start in place of Russell and/or Croyle, this will be among the greenest quarterback divisions of the last 30 years.

I looked at all divisions since 1978, defined their quarterback to the one who threw the most passes for them during that season, and then measured that quarterback’s experience by counting the number of NFL passes he had thrown prior to that season. Then I averaged those figures for all teams in the division.

That sounds complicated, but it’s not. Let me illustrate with the 2007 AFC West:

   QB            Career passing attempts
========================================
Rivers                   490
Cutler                   137
Croyle                     7
Russell                    0

The average is 159, which would be by far the lowest since 1978. Even if we slot Huard and McCown in there in place of Croyle and Russell, we’d get 505, which is still very low.

1985 AFC Central       233
Bernie Kosar             0
Mark Malone            380
Warren Moon            450
Boomer Esiason         102

1979 NFC Central       421
Doug Williams          194
Jeff Komlo               0
Tommy Kramer            73
Mike Phipps           1405
David Whitehurst       433

1988 NFC Central       495
Jim McMahon           1321
Wade Wilson            703
Rusty Hilger           157
Vinny Testaverde       165
Don Majkowski          127

1980 NFC Central       525
Doug Williams          591
Tommy Kramer           639
Lynn Dickey            876
Gary Danielson         451
Vince Evans             66

1989 NFC Central       533
Mike Tomczak           505
Bob Gagliano            30
Wade Wilson           1035
Don Majkowski          463
Vinny Testaverde       631

1990 NFC Central       535
Rich Gannon             21
Jim Harbaugh           286
Don Majkowski         1062
Vinny Testaverde      1111
Rodney Peete           195

1986 AFC Central       555
Bernie Kosar           248
Boomer Esiason         533
Warren Moon            827
Mark Malone            613

1986 AFC East          589
Ken O’Brien            691
Jim Kelly                0
Dan Marino            1427
Jack Trudeau             0
Tony Eason             825

2004 NFC West          594
Tim Rattay             163
Matt Hasselbeck       1282
Marc Bulger            746
Josh McCown            183

Can you guess what the most experienced division of quarterbacks was? Two of the top three come from the last two seasons.