Now that the NFL Draft is in the books, we are standing on the cusp of the NFL preseason. During the coming weeks, rookie mini-camps will grind into gear and hard-core fantasy owners will start the process of evaluating this year’s draft picks potential for “instant impact” during 2008. In redraft fantasy football leagues, one key requirement for the kind of production that fantasy owners crave is opportunity. A player like TE Martellus Bennett (a 2nd-round selection by Dallas) may have all the talent in the world, but his chances for a meaningful 2008 season in fantasy terms are very slight due to being buried on the depth chart behind All-Pro TE Jason Witten.

The below is a preliminary list of the top rookie prospects for redraft fantasy leagues, given their new NFL homes.

Rookie Running Backs

The running back position is where the fantasy gems among the rookies are most likely to be found. While it is true that for every Adrian Peterson (Minnesota) or Joseph Addai one can point at, there are also players like J.J. Arrington or Chris Perry who serve as a counter-examples, it is also true that running backs tend to make the quickest transition to playing at the NFL level. A fantasy owner is most likely to find an “instant impact” player among the rookie running backs in any given calendar year.

Jonathan Stewart is probably the best bet at running back to generate fantasy impact during his rookie season. He is the sort of running back that the Panthers’ coaching staff prefers, and they have been retooling their offensive line for a power running attack - Stewart fits the mold that Carolina is built to utilize. DeAngelo Williams simply isn’t the player the coaching staff wants to rely on as their #1 RB - he is better suited to a change-of-pace, 3rd-down role in their scheme. Stewart figures to have plenty of touches on the ball with the Panthers this year.

Darren McFadden is a boom-or-bust type prospect. Yes, he has the type of speed and top gear that make him a threat to go to the house on every down, and he projects to be the starter with the Raiders (assuming his contract negotiations go well and he avoids a JaMarcus Russell-type holdout scenario). However, there is a crowded RB stable in Oakland, with Justin Fargas coming off a 1000+ yard season - if McFadden struggles with the pro game, he may not get many chances to redeem himself.

Kevin Smith lands with the Lions, who really like his game and seem to be indicating that the starting job is his to lose during 2008. We’ll see if their actions match their draft-day rhetoric - but Tatum Bell hasn’t looked like the answer since he arrived in Detroit, and as of today, he is the only other back of note on the team. If Smith impresses in training camp it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him starting for the Lions in September.

Matt Forte comes into a by-committee backfield situation, with both Cedric Benson and Adrian Peterson grinding out 3.4 yards per carry last season. Peterson was far more productive than Benson in the passing game (51/420/0 receiving vs. 17/123/0) and actually led the team in total yardage and fantasy points at the RB position last year. Benson has greatly underperformed his draft slot (1st round -4th pick in 2005) and may find himself riding the pine if Forte proves that he outperform Benson during training camp.

Rashard Mendenhall is likely to be Willie Parker’s primary backup for this year, but given Parker’s difficulty at the goal-line last year (321/1316/2 rushing), Mendenhall could find a role as the Steelers’ goal-line back (Najeh Davenport gained 107/499/5 rushing and 18/184/2 as the Steelers’ big back/change of pace back last year). If Mendenhall seals the #2 job with Pittsburgh, he could have value in basic scoring leagues (any league where TD production is the primary scoring criteria).

Felix Jones joins fellow rookie Tashard Choice as the new backups to Marion Barber III. Barber looks set to carry the majority of the load for Dallas, but Jones’ outside speed will give him a shot to earn playing time as the 3rd down back/passing down back - depending on how quickly Jones picks up the Cowboys’ offense and learns to pick up the blitz.

Rookie Wide Receivers

Second to the running backs, rookie WRs occasionally step into the NFL and make fantasy owners’ seasons. The most obvious example of this phenomenon would be Randy Moss’s first incredible season (69/1313/17) with Minnesota (he was the #1 fantasy WR as a rookie) - Larry Fitzgerald’s 58/780/8 as a rookie was also pretty outstanding for a rookie WR (30th best fantasy WR during 2004). However, it is far more often the case that rookie WRs bust (especially in their first season of NFL action). The last time I fell hard for a rookie WR’s potential, I ended up having Rashaun Woods among my preseason top 36 fantasy prospects - only to watch him fail miserably at the NFL level. Now-a-days, it is my rule of thumb that exactly zero rookie WRs land among my top 40 or so fantasy prospects until they have proven their skills extensively in training camp and preseason games - and even then I tend to be conservative about drafting them early - I would urge fantasy owners to be very leery of rookie wideouts.

James Hardy appears to have landed in the best situation among the draftees, with a legitimate shot at capturing the #2 wide receiver position on the Buffalo Bills. Other than Lee Evans, the Bills’ WRs generated 1 receiving TD last year (Josh Reed was #2 in yardage with 51/578/0) - not exactly what the coaching staff was looking for, to say the least. However, don’t go overboard with your enthusiasm for Hardy - the Bills were 30th in the NFL when it came to passing offense, so his ceiling as the #2 WR (if he gets that far) is relatively low compared to a player on a franchise like New England.

DeSean Jackson figures to be in the mix in Philadelphia, but the team spreads the ball around quite a bit - the 2nd best receiver on the Eagles over the past two years failed to get over 800 yards receiving or score more than 5 times, and the players at WR3 and below are non-factors in fantasy terms.

Devin Thomas may challenge for playing time in Washington, but with a developing young QB in Jason Campbell and an entrenched #1 WR in Santana Moss combined with a high-scoring TE hogging red-zone chances (Chris Cooley has 6 or more TDs in each of his first 4 seasons) - Thomas will have significant obstacles to overcome before he starts putting up the kind of statistics that make fantasy owners excited.

Malcolm Kelly - see Devin Thomas above.

Jerome Simpson landed with Cincinnati while the Bengals are searching for a replacement WR3 - if he can wow the coaching staff in training camp and sew up the WR3 spot, he could put up decent numbers now and then during 2008.

Rookie Quarterbacks

Excepting Peyton Manning , the exception who proves the rule, no rookie QB has been a fantasy standout during recent memory - even Dan Marino took one season to get up to speed before exploding during his second campaign way back in 1984. Unless you are convinced that Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco or any of the other draftees this year are of the caliber of a Peyton Manning or a Dan Marino, you should probably pass on them during your redraft league’s annual draft.

Matt Ryan will likely get his chance to start during 2008, perhaps early on in the season if Chris Redman falters during training camp. Ryan is sure to suffer typical rookie growing pains once he does get into the lineup, so he probably won’t have any games worth mentioning until very late in the season, if then.

Joe Flacco may be the heir apparent in Baltimore, but he’s currently buried behind Kyle Boller and Troy Smith (last year’s draft pick at the position). The Ravens got burned the last time they rushed a QB into the starting lineup (witness Boller’s checkered career with Baltimore) - they aren’t likely to make the same mistake with Flacco. He’ll likely carry the clipboard after preseason, with occasional spot duty in blow out wins or losses.

Rookie Tight Ends

Rookie tight ends are very seldom worth drafting - Tony Gonzalez scored 2 TDs in his rookie campaign (33/368/2), as did Antonio Gates (24/389/2), as did the ultra-hyped rookie TE of 2007, Greg Olsen (39/391/2). The three above examples are actually best-case scenarios for the vast majority of rookie TEs - the position is very demanding at the pro level and it simply takes more than 1 training camp and regular season to absorb all the duties that are asked of a pro TE. Among the 2008 draftees, expect 300+ and 1-2 TDs to be a ceiling when you are crafting your projections.

New Seahawk John Carlson will battle Jeb Putzier for playing time during 2008, and could end up starting for Seattle sooner rather than later. He is the TE prospect who landed in the best situation (such as it is) from the fantasy perspective.

Dustin Keller arrives to the Jets via a first round pick, but he’ll have to earn his way into the starting lineup - solid-but-unspectacular Chris Baker has scored 4 TDs in 2 of the past 4 seasons, and posted 41/409/3 last year. Keller will have the opportunity to learn the position from Baker and another veteran TE, Bubba Franks, this season. Keller is a guy to watch as the year progresses - he might be worth a flyer in free agency late in the season (just before fantasy playoffs) if he manages to earn playing time during 2008.

The NFL Draft is an exciting time of year for football junkies, but it is just the beginning of a long process. Don’t let your draft weekend enthusiasm drown out your better judgement as you prepare your preliminary draft lists for 2008. We have yet to get an inkling who among the draftees will fulfill their promise, which ones will outperform expectations - and how many will go bust in their first season as a pro football players.

2.32: Phillip Merling, DE, Miami Dolphins

Pass rusher had some injury woes but was effective off the edge when healthy. Has the size (6′5″, 272 pounds) that Bill Parcells covets. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.33: Donnie Avery, WR, St. Louis Rams

Quite a surprise. The first WR off the board is a small, uber fast guy considered a mid round pick by most scouts. Hard to believe he can replace Isaac Bruce without a few years of seasoning. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.34: Devin Thomas, WR, Washington Redskins (via Oakland through Atlanta)

The Redskins draft the WR many expected to be first off the WR board. Devin Thomas only had one big year at Michigan but has great size (6′2″, 215 pounds) and can also help as a kickoff returner. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.35: Brandon Flowers, CB, Kansas City Chiefs

If Flowers ran a tenth of a second faster, he would’ve been a mid 1st rounder. Great choice for the rebuilding Chiefs. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.36: Jordy Nelson, WR, Green Bay Packers (via New York Jets)

Another surprising WR selection. Was WR really a need for Green Bay with Driver, Jennings and Jones on the roster? Should help on special teams right away. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.37: Curtis Lofton, LB, Atlanta Falcons

Tackling machine, ideally suited for the inside where he can flow downfield to the ball. Not someone good in space and must be put in the right scheme to succeed. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.38: John Carlson, TE, Seattle Seahawks (via Baltimore)

Mike Holmgren called this a need, and the ‘hawks felt Carlson was a perfect fit for their West Coast offense. Carlson put up big numbers with Brady Quinn under center, as a reminder. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.39: Chilo Rachal, OG, San Francisco 49ers

Rachal gets knocked for not being a great athlete, but he’s technically sound and has a mean streak. As long as he plays inside and isn’t asked to pull and extend to the 2nd level much, he could be a starter immediately. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.40: Tracy Porter, CB, New Orleans Saints

Ironic that the Saints draft a cornerback with the 40th pick; considering there were rumors all week that the 40th pick would be part of a package to acquire Eagles CB Lito Sheppard. Porter is good at tracking the ball but isn’t a sure tackler or much help supporting the run.

2.41: James Hardy, WR, Buffalo Bills

The Bills landed the top corner in the draft last round and, in my opinion, the best receiver in the draft at 2.41. Hardy is a big guy who isn’t afraid of contact. He goes up for the ball and runs good routes; which helps offset a lack of breakaway speed.

2.42: Eddie Royal, WR, Denver Broncos

Royal is one of a handful of receivers who also project as solid returner at the next level. At only 5′8″, 184 pounds, Royal will need to prove he can hold up as a receiver over the course of the season. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.43: Tyrell Johnson, S, Minnesota Vikings (via Carolina through Philadelphia)

Kenny Phillips has the bigger name, but Johnson may have the bigger game. The Vikes continue to bolster their defense with another solid young, physical player. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.44: Matt Forte, RB, Chicago Bears

I’m not crazy about Forte; I don’t believe he’s a special back nor was he the best back left on the board. However, Forte has his supporters and it’s not inconceivable he could earn the starting gig over Cedric Benson sooner rather than later.

2.45: Jordon Dizon, OLB, Detroit Lions

Dizon lacks ideal size and speed; but like many solid NFL linebackers before him, he just makes plays. He’s instinctive and a sound tackler; exactly the kind of guy Rod Marinelli can build around. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.46: Jerome Simpson, WR, Cincinnati Bengals

Further proof that beauty is in the eye of the beholder at WR this year. Simpson wasn’t close to the best WR prospect on the board, but clearly the Bengals felt otherwise. At least, this pick fills a need given the release of Chris Henry and concerns about Chad Johnson’s status.

2.47: Trevor Laws, DT, Philadelphia Eagles (via Minnesota)

The Eagles finally make a pick, and it’s clearly a “best player available” selection. Defensive tackle was hardly a major need, but Laws is a high character, high motor guy who will add depth to an already young tackle rotation.

2.48: Fred Davis, TE, Washington Redskins (via Houston through Atlanta)

The Redskins are committed to getting QB Jason Campbell weapons. First Devin Thomas and now a pass-receiving tight end a few picks later. Davis doesn’t project into an elite tight end, but the Redskins don’t need him to be given the presence of Chris Cooley.

2.49: DeSean Jackson, WR/KR, Philadelphia Eagles

Many Birds fans wouldn’t have complained if Jackson was the pick in the 1st round. So to trade down, grab a 2009 1st rounder as compensation and get DeSean anyway was a coup. He’s tiny (169 pounds) but is blazing fast and unstoppable in the open field. He instantly gives the Eagles the best returner they’ve had in 5 years.

2.50: Calais Campbell, DE, Arizona Cardinals

You don’t find many 6′8″, 280 pound ends; yet Campbell fell into the 2nd round because of an uneven 2007 season. He was a stud in 2006 and, as long as the Cards play him at the right position, should combine with free agent Clark Haggans to improve the Cards pass rush.

2.51: Malcolm Kelly, WR, Washington Redskins

Sure, he’s slower than you would like. But have teams watched this kid play? He’s a polished route runner, has great hands and excellent body control. Very reminiscent of the year Chad Johnson fell because of his slow 40-time; the Skins got a steal.

2.52: Quentin Groves, DE, Jacksonville Jaguars (via Tampa Bay)

The Jags have a stifling defense already, but they aren’t great at putting pressure on opposing QBs. Adding Quentin Groves in the 2nd after taking Derrick Harvey 8th overall goes a long way to changing the Jags pass rush. Groves character issues aside, this was a solid pick.

2.53: Limas Sweed, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers

Some scouts love Sweed, some see him as a bust. At 53rd overall, the Steelers aren’t risking a lot financially to find out if he’s the next Plaxico Burress. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.54: Jason Jones, DE, Tennessee Titans

Jones could replace Antwan Odom right away, but he’s a bit raw to expect that. Eventually the Titans see Jones as a capable 2-way end in their 4-3 defense. His skill set is more suited to defensive tackle, but his size projects him as an end.

2.55: Ray Rice, RB, Baltimore Ravens (via Seattle)

Ray Rice is a local product who was wildly productive as the main ball carrier for Rutgers. While he lacks prototypical size, his low center of gravity and style make him more than capable of being an every down back if needed.

2.56: Brian Brohm, QB, Green Bay Packers (via Cleveland)

Now that’s kind of surprising. Or is it? The Pack took Aaron Rodgers in the 1st when Brett Favre was under center, so why wouldn’t they take the most accurate QB prospect in the 2nd round given Rodgers inexperience? Worst case, he’s a backup for a few years. Best case, he outplays Rodgers and ends up starting in a year or two.

2.57: Chad Henne, QB, Miami Dolphins (via San Diego)

How about that? It looks like Jake Long may be blocking for Chad Henne for a few more years. Another smart pick. He could easily outplay Beck and McCown to win the job; at the very lesaet he’s a big armed, young backup for a good price.

2.58: Dexter Jackson, WR/KR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (via Jacksonville)

This was a reach pick. While Jackson is another potentially dangerous return man; he needs a lot of maturing as a route runner before he can reasonably play WR on a regular basis. Blistering speed (4.33) though and dangerous in the open field.

2.59: Mike Pollak, OG/C, Indianapolis Colts

A classic Colts pick. Their only 1st day pick and it’s a fundamentally sound center that they project as a starting offensive guard for now and possibly a replacement for Jeff Saturday later. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.60: Patrick Lee, DB, Green Bay Packers

A hard worker, Lee may someday start at corner but not for a few seasons. In the meantime, he can be a force on special teams and perhaps play nickel back particularly in run support situations. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.61: Martellus Bennett, TE, Dallas Cowboys

I like this pick more than most. For my money, Bennett was the top TE in this draft. He’s huge, is a good blocker who can become great, and should be a key red zone target given his height and willingness to go up for the ball. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.62: Terrence Wheatley, CB, New England Patriots

The Pats always seem to find value and this was no exception. Wheatley is a legitimate shutdown cover corner who, were it not for myriad injuries in college, would’ve been in the hunt for a top 15 selection. Either way, he’ll help the Pats on defense and special teams.

2.63: Terrell Thomas, CB, New York Giants

Thomas is the 217th USC Trojan to be drafted in the first two rounds (not really, just feels that way). If the Giants view him as a corner, I don’t like this pick. But if they’re going to try to convert him to safety; where his deficiencies can be obfuscated somewhat, the choice makes more sense.

CB Leodis McKelvin becomes the first cornerback off the board; and likely starts a run on cornerbacks in the next part of the 1st round. McKelvin may not have played at a big program (Troy), but his game film is impeccable and he more than held his own at postseason bowls and workouts. He’s a physical cover corner with fluid hips and, most importantly, is a special PR/KR to boot. The Bills get help at corner and the return man they were desperate for.

Fantasy Impact: If McKelvin is as talented a returner as we think, the Bills fantasy defense could be an intriguing sleeper particularly if you get points for return yardage.

It wasn’t long ago that defensive tackle was considered one of the pre-eminent positions in the league. GMs and coaches coveted young defensive tackles that showed even a hint of promise. Aging run stuffers seemingly have endless job opportunities. Logically speaking, this is as much about the physical uniqueness of the position as anything. How many 300+ pound, athletic guys exist in the gene pool? Now ask yourself how many of them can also master an NFL playbook, play with a high motor, stay healthy, and make plays game in, game out. Sounds like a rarity? IT IS.

It also wasn’t long ago that NFL trades were a rarity.

Yet, both of those notions are being turned on their head this offseason. A bevy of the league’s defensive tackles have been traded in recent days. And the trades haven’t involved developmental backups, either. The trades read like a laundry list of the league’s top tackles, young and old.

Marcus Stroud traded to the Bills for 3rd and 5th round picks in 2008

Stroud (6′6″, 310 pounds, 29 years old) requested a trade from the Jaguars and was granted his request when the Bills came forward. From 2003-2005, Stroud was arguably the most dominant run-stuffer in the league; pairing with John Henderson to form a daunting interior. But after three consecutive Pro Bowls, Stroud hurt his ankle in 2006 and had microfracture surgery. He missed time rehabbing in 2006 and the ankle again impacted his play in 2007. On top of that, Stroud was suspended four games for violating the league’s substance abuse program. Assuming Stroud is healthy, he gives the Bills a major upgrade in place of the recently released Larry Tripplett. He’s only 29 years old and has three years remaining on his deal; so the Bills have relatively little risk in making this move.

Kris Jenkins traded to the Jets for 3rd and 5th round picks in 2008

It wasn’t long ago that Jenkins (6′4″, 335 pounds, 28 years old) was considered THE elite young tackle in the league. He notched All Pro nods in his 2nd and 3rd years, combining solid run-stopping technique with an intense inside pass rush (12 sacks in 2002-2003). Jenkins then suffered setbacks in 2004 (shoulder) and 2005 (ACL) which robbed him of his status as an elite player. To his credit, Jenkins rebounded in 2006 and earned his 3rd Pro Bowl nod; and played all 16 games in 2007, as well. Unlike Stroud, Jenkins will be asked to play a different position. The Jets use a 3-4 defensive front and Jenkins will be the team’s new nose tackle. It will be an adjustment but Jenkins has a wide body and low center of gravity, so the adjustment shouldn’t be problematic. For his troubles, the Jets signed him to a new 5-year, $35mm extension.

Shaun Rogers traded to the Browns for CB Leigh Bodden and a 3rd round pick in 2008

Rogers is a physical marvel (6′4″, 340 pounds, 28 years old) with the athleticism of a defensive end but the size of a traditional run stuffer. Perhaps no better indication of his athleticism than the fact he’s blocked 11 (yes, 11!) kicks in his career. In seven seasons in Detroit, he started nearly every game and finished last season with a career high 7 sacks. He signed a six-year extension after the 2004 season and was, at the time, viewed as one of the best young lineman in the NFL. He added Pro Bowl nods to his resume in the following two seasons. However, Rogers injured 2006 season got him off on the wrong foot with new head coach Rod Marinelli, and their relationship never appeared to recover despite a solid 2007 campaign. Rogers will significantly enhance the Browns front line; and the Browns won’t have to immediately commit to a new contract for him.

Corey Williams traded to the Browns for a 2nd round pick in 2008

Williams (6′4″, 313 pounds, 27 years old) emerged this season in Green Bay as a 4-3 tackle capable of periodic dominance. Despite being part of a rotation in Green Bay, Williams put up 14 sacks over the last two years in addition to 69 tackles. The Packers franchised Williams and seemed ready to commit to him long-term. But shortly after the start of free agency, the Packers shipped Williams to the Browns for a 2nd round pick. The Browns will use Williams as a defensive end in the 3-4 scheme and have signed him to a new 6-year, $38mm deal that guarantees him $14mm.

So is this trade frenzy indicative of a new NFL paradigm or simply a statistical quirk of this offseason? It seems that NFL teams are no longer beholden keeping high priced players around hoping they will learn to fit into the system and/or get over their unhappiness at the situation. Will all of these deals work out for the acquiring teams? Certainly not. But in early March when every deal has an optimistic light, it certainly seems like the acquiring teams landed key contributors that would’ve been impossible to find through the draft or free agency.

Buffalo Bills

The Bills are unlikely to tag anyone as their free agent outlook is rather minimal.

Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins have the first overall pick and plenty of needs, but are unlikely to commit a lot of money to any of their free agents. They likely want to retain a number of them (Rex Hadnot, Yeremiah Bell) but none deserve the kind of financial commitment a tag would involve.

New England Patriots

WR Randy Moss

The Patriots acquired Randy Moss last offseason and, to Moss’ credit, he took a one-year deal to prove himself. Well, an 18-1 record and an NFL record 23 TD receptions later, the Pats are in a difficult bargaining position. It seems absurd to believe the Patriots would let Moss walk, or that he would want to leave a team that allowed him to return to HOF form and has a great chance of getting him a ring. BUT…he took a discount last season and is going to want to be paid (justifiably so). Look for the Patriots to tag Moss with the idea of signing him to a long-term deal before the start of the 2008 season.

Note: Some people have asked why I don’t have All Pro CB Asante Samuel listed as a 2nd option. Simply put, Samuel was tagged last year and he agreed to sign the tender under the condition the Patriots couldn’t tag him again this season. Either the Patriots give Samuel a long-term contract or he’s free to walk. 

New York Jets

The Jets don’t have anyone that likely warrants their tag designations. LB Victor Hobson, S Erik Coleman, and OT Adrian Jones are all probably in line to return but for nowhere near franchise or transition tag dollars.

You are welcome to consider the following as analysis or entertainment, as you see fit.

WEEK 16 of the 2O06 SEASON
Seven kickers score in double digits in week 16 last year:
10 Matt Bryant in TB 22-7 victory at Cle
11 David Akers in Phi 23-7 victory at Dal
12 Rob Bironas in Ten 30-29 victory at Buf
12 John Carney in NO 30-7 victory at NYG
14 Neil Rackers in Ari 26-20 victory at SF
14 Robbie Gould in Chi 26-20 victory at Det
17 Rian Lindell in Buf 29-20 loss against Ten

6 of 7 of those games featured teams that ended up with similar records (Chi-Det being the exception)
6 of 7 of those kickers played for the visiting team (Lindell being the exception)
6 of 7 of those kickers played for the team that won (Lindell being the exception)

WEEK 16 of the 2007 SEASON
Who are the visiting kickers this week in matchups of teams with similar records?
Lawrence Tynes: 9-5 NYG at 7-7 Buf
David Akers: 6-8 Phi at 7-7 NO
John Carney: 4-10 KC at 6-8 Det
Shaun Suisham: 7-7 Was at 8-6 Min

The NFL Season is just two weeks away, and Fantasy Football drafts are happening all over the country. My eyes are about to pop out of my head from watching 40+ NFL preseason games either in entirety, in fast forward (stopping to catch several key plays) or even on the NFL.com highlight reel. My two DVRs are jam-packed still, but time is a-wastin’.

With that in mind, I have gone through my offensive player rankings for Footballguys for perhaps the last time before Week 1. For obvious reasons I cannot provide my entire rankings list here (subscriber only content), but I can tell you about a few tweaks that I made. There are several changes across the board, mostly minor upticks and downgrades, but I thought it would help some to know about the major moves I made and why:

Wide Receivers:

Take a look here for my overall WR redraft rankings as well as several other Footballguys staff’s opinions.

Wide receiver is a tricky position to rank, as here at Footballguys we focus on ranking them based solely on touchdown and yardage (no points per reception bonuses). Still, WRs are valuable and I see a big dropoff after about 20 WRs go off the fantasy draft boards this year. If you require starting three of them or if you get the “PPR” bonus, this is a very important position. Bear in mind that if you start 3 or have a flex position, your fourth (or even fifth) WR will be playing a few weeks for you as a starter. Draft accordingly.

Based on what I have seen, read and heard over the past few weeks, I have only made a few changes in the Top 20. Torry Holt’s knee cannot go unnoticed, so he’s a downgrade for certain. Marques Colston isn’t getting much press either, but he’s also not 100%. With so many options in the Top 20, I want “sure things”, and these guys are less than that at this moment. I’ll target a Roy Williams or a Reggie Wayne instead.

Lee Evans has impressed me, even after his amazing two-83-yard TD game last season. He’ll catch anything you throw deep at him far more often than not, and that’s a guy I want on my fantasy team. T.J. Houshmandzadeh is another top name that could really mean “Championship” for you this fantasy season.

A few other situations have me looking hard at their team’s receivers. Pittsburgh is going to throw more this year and I think that benefits Santonio Holmes more than Hines Ward. In fact, I think Holmes could be the #1 option in that passing game this season. Move Holmes up, Ward down a little.

The Giants will be throwing the ball around, but the question is who will catch it. Everyone seems dinged - from Plaxico Burress (ankle) to Michael Jennings (out for the year) to the return of an older Amani Toomer (torn ACL last year). That tells me to take a look at Steve Smith later in the draft for a guy with upside.

Staying in the NFC East, Terry Glenn is not getting younger either and he is also hurt. Terrell Owens is very very good, but he’s also not built out of steel. Grab Patrick Crayton who could be a starter several times for the Cowboys this season. I’ve already moved him up my draft board (and Glenn down some).

Next up…. Tight Ends.

Continuing on…I thought it might be helpful to give you a few quick hitting comments on which players are rising and falling in MY (i.e., different than Dodds’) projections this preseason.

Up next, the AFC East:

RISING

• Kellen Clemens, NYJ (Rank: QB41) — Still backup, but solid play = dark horse replacement starter
• Ronnie Brown, MIA (Rank: RB10) — Cam Cameron rides one horse, Dolphins O-line looking OK
• Leon Washington, NYJ (Rank: RB40) — Solid play, Jones’ injury + Receiving threat = 3rd down back w/ upside
• Anthony Thomas, BUF (Rank: RB42) — Running with 1st team, will split carries with Lynch
• Jesse Chatman, MIA (Rank: RB54) — Clearly emerging as Fins RB2
• Lee Evans, BUF (Rank: WR6) — Elite talent, chemistry with Losman
• Wes Welker, NE (Rank: WR49) — Possession receiver having strong camp
• David Martin, MIA (Rank: TE24) — Efficient scorer, getting lots of work in preseason
• Robert Royal, BUF (Rank: TE29) — Emerged as clear-cut starter

FALLING

• Chad Pennington, NYJ (Rank: QB25) — Inconsistent camp + Clemens strong play = risky
• Trent Green, MIA (Rank: QB28) — I originally slotted him around QB20, but struggles brought me back to the mean
• Thomas Jones, NYJ (Rank: RB21) — Achilles injury + Pete Kendall trade = a few notches lower
• Marshawn Lynch, BUF (Rank: RB28) — Jauron committed to RBBC, Lynch not running hard at times
• Lorenzo Booker, MIA (Rank: RB70) — A non-factor thus far in the preseason
• Randy Moss, NE (Rank: WR10) — Lack of practice in August means slower start to the season
• Jerricho Cotchery, NYJ (Rank: WR32) — Good, but not great talent
• Kevin Everett, BUF (Rank: TE52) — Royal emerged as starter, Everett a preseason non-factor

Let’s hear your thoughts…where do you agree? Where do you disagree and why?

While it can be dangerous to read too much into the first “official” depth charts and the fluff pieces beat writers produce early in the preseason, there are always important nuggets to be gleaned from watching preseason games and carefully considering the comments of coaches and coordinators. Here’s a look at some of the changes in the IDP landscape thus far.Winners

• ILB Adalius Thomas — As was reported during OTAs, Thomas lined up all over the field last week but primarily at LILB. That’s often been the better tackling position in the Belichick scheme in recent years. Thomas looked a little uncomfortable inside at times but the combination of increased run support opportunity and pass rush skill may prove a lethal combination in the boxscore.
• DE Robert Geathers — After the team hinted that he would remain in a situational pass rushing role, Geathers played every down with the first team defense. Geathers has flashed decent run supporting skill in prior seasons and has 45 solo, 10 sack potential in the full time role.
• SS Deon Grant — Some felt Grant was in for a big bump in stats after leaving the limiting Jacksonville scheme for the greener Seahawk defense but the news that Grant would take on a more traditional strong safety role should make him an even safer bet for 2007.
• SS Chris Harris — Harris became a must roster after the Panthers acquired him from the Bears as camp began. Harris may not be a special NFL talent, but his IDP value goes from non-existent as a backup with Chicago to the starting SS in Carolina.
• WLB Landon Johnson — Another Bengal who looks to have a bigger role than initially expected, Johnson started with the first team last week. An underrated all-around backer, Johnson played well enough the first week to keep Ed Hartwell a backup MLB/WLB.
• OLB Antwan Peek — Peek isn’t a stud NFL talent, but Willie McGinest’s back surgery and Kamerion Wimbley’s beastly performance in the first preseason game could push Peek into every week starter status in big play leagues this year.

Losers

• OLB Chike Okeafor — Okeafor is likely out for the season after suffering a torn bicep muscle last week. Owners looking to use Okeafor as a DL and get OLB stat lines are going to have to find another option to exploit the “Bryan Thomas” classification loophole.
• MLB Ahmad Brooks — Caleb Miller replaced Brooks in nickel situations in the first preseason game despite earlier indications that Brooks would be an every down linebacker. There’s still time for Brooks to prove himself in coverage and the team has praised his effort in practice, but this isn’t a good start to 2007.
• FS Will Demps — The Giants began camp with Gibril Wilson at FS, James Butler at SS and Demps, who was one of the better producing free safeties in IDP leagues last year, on the second team. Demps is apparently rotating in with the first team again this week but the writing may be on the wall for him.
• MLB Brian Simmons — A nagging chronic knee problem and the surprisingly consistent play of last year’s starter Mark Simoneau has Simmons stuck on the second team. If Simmons can’t get on the field and impress soon, he’ll have a hard time securing any IDP value in 2007 without an injury to another starter.
• WLB Keith Ellison — While it may not be set in stone yet, Ellison sat in nickel situations during the first preseason game. Though it appears Ellison will shift with the offensive formation to remain a WLB on all base defensive snaps, sitting in the nickel will keep him from becoming more than a LB3.
• OLB Bryan Thomas — The NFL.com gamebook and Jets official depth chart has finally be updated to reflect Thomas’ correct position as an OLB. Those holding out hope that Thomas will remain a DL in your IDP league have hopefully already made other arrangements.

Other ongoing storylines:

Patrick Willis is still behind Derek Smith at RILB in the 49er base defense. Roman Harper looks fully recovered and may play linebacker in the nickel defense for New Orleans. Demorrio Williams has been cleared for contact nearly a month before he was expected to return and is running with the first team in Atlanta. Gibril Wilson has been tabbed for the big play FS role that Brian Dawkins played in Philadelphia. Eagle LB Takeo Spikes is turning heads in camp and may have recovered his sideline-to-sideline range.

Keep an eye on our free IDP centered message board at FootballGuys for breaking news and quick analysis on the defensive side of the ball. And watch for our new weekly IDP podcast on The Audible which will debut next week.

So you’re addicted to football. That’s okay - the first step is admitting it. Not that it is a problem (there are far worse addictions in life) for you, but your wife, girlfriend or family may disagree. Don’t they understand that there are a dozen or more games on from Thursday to Monday this week? Priorities, people….

Now that you know you’ll be watching football non-stop for several days, just hoping to find that next hidden gem for your fantasy franchise, let’s consider what to watch for and who might be popping up on some radars.

1. All four quarters matter. Coaches look for players in the fourth quarter just as much as they do in the first - just with a different purpose. They want to see who doesn’t belong at that level and who should get bumped up a string on the depth chart. Look for players that are faster than the rest and hitting harder than anyone else. If you see a player in the final minutes of Week 1 preseason games doing well and then he’s playing in the second quarter next week, watch him.

2. Team’s shortcomings matter. Quick, can you name your backup QB? What about your goal line back or second TE? If you can’t, there is probably a reason why. Since you are reading a football blog right now, I know you know and love football, so that isn’t the issue. Your team needs depth, and you need to go shopping in the pre-season to find some.

3. Shut up and score. If you don’t notice anything else, read who scores points this week. Those players will get more chances going forward. Even if it is just a rushing TD late in the fourth quarter, it is still someone who performed at this level and instantly becomes one to watch.

Here are a few names from the early games this week:

RB Brian Leonard, STL - Scored a TD for the Rams and looks to have a firm grip on the backup role to starter Steven Jackson. The former Scarlet Knight impressed at the NFL Combine and continues to build on his resume. I would not hesitate to have Leonard on a fantasy team, and would make it a priority if I had Jackson.

Lance Moore, WR, NO - Moore played early and often for the Saints and was a nice target for all the New Orleans’ QBs. He’s impressed in training camp so far and is also returning kicks. Moore could easily become the third WR for the Saints and displace Terrance Copper.

Fred Jackson, RB, BUF - Scored an impressive touchdown and had some nice flashes as a rusher in the second half for the Bills. The backfield in Buffalo is now crowded (Marshawn Lynch, Anthony “A-Train” Thomas, Dwayne Wright) but he is one to keep an eye on, especially in deep Dynasty leagues.

Tyler Palko, QB, NO - Palko was panned at the NFL Draft, but I liked what I saw. Yes it was late in the game, but he showed a lot of poise and playmaking abilities. Bear in mind the opportunities that exist for the Saints QB if Brees gets hurt, which he has certianly been in the past. I also do not believe in the Jamie Martin project.

Tarvaris Jackson, QB, MIN - Clear and away he is your starter for the Vikings. He also showed that he can pull the ball down and run. I can see him being a “poor man’s version of Vince Young” this season.

Enjoy the games.

Following up on Will Grant’s post about what to look for during the preseason games, I thought I’d post a link to the NFL’s pre-season television schedule. This week we have five games on tap:

• Thu., Aug. 9 Indianapolis at Dallas FOX (8 p.m.)
• Fri., Aug. 10 Buffalo at New Orleans CBS (8 p.m.)
• Sat, Aug. 11 Washington at Tennessee NFLN (8 p.m.)
• Sun, Aug. 12 Seattle at San Diego NBC (8 p.m.)
• Mon, Aug. 13 Denver at San Francisco ESPN (8 p.m.)

Below are a few story lines of interest to fantasy owners regarding the above games.

On Thursday, we’ll get a glimpse of Tony Romo’s progress entering his second year as the starter for Dallas (likely we’ll see very little of Peyton Manning, Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne). Friday will give us an idea how resilient the Saints’ first team is this year after their embarrassment at the hands of “Blitzburgh” during the Hall of Fame game. Saturday, young guns Jason Campbell and Vince Young will be under the microscope of fantasy owners everywhere - who has made strides in his development so far? Will Young throw another punch with his throwing hand? Stay tuned, sports fans! Deion Branch has been enjoying his first full training camp with the Seahawks - can he and Matt Hasselbeck form a strong #1 tandem (replacing the Hasselbeck/Darrell Jackson connection), starting on Sunday? Is D.J. Hackett actually getting pushed by Nate Burleson, or was that a false camp rumor? On Monday, we’ll see if Jay Cutler is simpatico with Javon Walker and Daniel Graham, and who will line up as the team’s #2 WR. Alex Smith enters the game without his top RB, Frank Gore - how will the 49ers adjust their attack to compensate for the absent (broken hand) Gore?

Don’t you just love football season? Get ready to rummmbllle fantasy owners everywhere - the game is BACK ON!

An article on the Bills official website discusses Dick Jauron’s decision to go with a running back-by-committee (RBBC) approach this season.

Buffalo’s head coach has stated more than once to Buffalobills.com that he’s leaning toward a running back by committee approach this season. With all of the final four teams standing last season (New Orleans, Chicago, Indianapolis, New England) profiting greatly from a two-horse offensive backfield, Dick Jauron remains in favor of a group effort for 2007.

Apparently, this is what you get when you put an Ivy Leaguer in charge of a football team. While I applaud Jauron for recognizing a commonality among last year’s four top playoff teams, his decision to let that guide him is the epitome of not seeing the forest for the trees.

While it’s certainly true that all four teams in the championship rounds were RBBC a year ago, THREE OF THEM ARE MOVING AWAY FROM THAT POLICY THIS YEAR…

• Chicago — Thomas Jones is off to New York and the Bears run game is beholden to Cedric Benson
• Indianapolis — Dominic Rhodes is serving his suspension in Oakland, while 2nd year Joseph Addai gets a full workload in Indy
• New England — The Pats let Corey Dillon “retire” and will let Laurence Maroney carry the load

Dick, before you go ahead and convince yourself that Marshawn Lynch shouldn’t carry the rock A LOT, take a look at your model teams and realize that they too are going with a one-back situation this year.

Today on The Audible, Cecil, Sigmund and I take a look at the AFC East top to bottom.

QB Breakdown: LISTEN NOW!
Topics Include: the maturity of JP Losman, what kind of role the Bills see for Trent Edwards, Trent Greens expected production in Miami, when will John Beck be ready, how good Tom Brady can be this year, is Matt Cassell the real deal, Chad Pennington, Kellen Clemens, plus more!

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RB Breakdown: LISTEN NOW!
Topics Include: Marshawn Lynch in a RBBC, the future of Dwayne Wright, concerns about Ronnie Brown, the upside and downside of Lorenzo Booker, Laurence Maroney, the Jets new starting RB Thomas Jones, plus more!

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WR Breakdown: LISTEN NOW!
Topics Include: the great playmaker Lee Evans, who will start opposite of Evans in Buffalo, Chris Chambers, how will Randy Moss do in New England, can Wes Welker catch 50 plus passes in the Patriots offense, Laveranues Coles, plus more!

1. Who is the projected WR2 on the Houston Texans? Before you answer, here’s some insight into the Texans WR corps this season, that has “sleeper” written all over it. The Footballguys staff has projected Houston WR1, Andre Johnson to reach 95 rec, 1150 yd, 7 TD, but the WR2 is only projected to reach 37 rec, 414 yd, 3 TD. Andre Johnson has never finished better than 18th among WR’s in total fantasy points (accomplished #18 last season)

Andre Johnson season ending fantasy rankings (Footballguys standard scoring)

• 2006: 18
• 2005: 47
• 2004: 22
• 2003: 23

Is this the year he finally breaks out into a top 15 WR? He does have a new QB in Matt Schaub, which might be the difference. It’s pretty much Andre Johnson, Ahman Green and TE Owen Daniels as the Texans offense this season, right? Underneath Andre Johnson there are a few sleepers in the Texans WR corps. Rookie Jacoby Jones and 3rd year pro Jerome Mathis, who actually could surprise. Jones has a 6′3, 215lb frame with quickness not unlike an Anquan Boldin type. Jerome Mathis has that Steve Smith, Santana Moss frame to him. Quick-footed, good shake and a desire for the extra yard. The timing and opportunity for a sleeper to emerge in Houston is absolutely ripe. By the way, the WR2 currently on the depth chart is none other than Kevin Walter. Who? Watch this positional battle carefully throughout training camp and the pre-season.

2. Guess who is currently the RB1 on the Buffalo Bills depth chart? I’ll give you a hint, it’s not rookie RB, Marshawn Lynch. The answer here is Anthony “A-Train” Thomas. This is the same Anthony Thomas that led the Chicago Bears in rushing in 2001, 2002 and 2003. Don’t get me wrong, Marshawn Lynch may come in and be the back Buffalo is looking for, or he could be the next J.J. Arrington. Before you go crowning Marshawn Lynch with 1000 yards in his rookie season, don’t forget he has some big competition to surpass and the Bills know it. There’s a reason why Anthony Thomas is #1 on the depth chart right now. Here’s some numbers to back up my thoughts on this possible awakened star.

• Anthony Thomas finished the 2001 season (rookie year) as the 13th best RB in fantasy points
• Has two 1000-yard seasons under his belt
• In limited duty last season with Buffalo, Thomas managed 22 receptions. So that’s what, at least 44 receptions if he’s the primary back?

3. T.J. Houshmandzadeh will finish as a top 10 WR in fantasy points Footballguys expert rankings have Houshmandzadeh ranked #12. I say he’ll do better than that, here’s why.

• He has increased his season ending ranking in fantasy points each season he has been in the league. He started out ranked 107 in 2001 and has since climbed to 79, 31, 14 and finally 11 last season
• The same increase each year can also be said for receptions (21, 41, 73, 79, 90) , Touchdowns (0, 1, 4, 7, 9) and targets (17, 69, 104, 115, 133)
• WR3 Chris Henry is suspended for 8 games to begin the 2007 season. Without Henry the alternatives are Tab Perry, Antonio Chatman and of course the tight end, which is practically invisible in Cincinnati’s offense
• Last season, Houshmandzadeh bested Chad Johnson in receptions (90 vs. 87) and TD (9 vs. 7)

Today on The Audible, Cecil Lammey and Sigmund Bloom discuss the Buffalo Bills with Special Guest Allen Wilson, Bills beat writer from the Buffalo News. Topics include how good can Marshawn Lynch be this year, the maturity of J.P. Losman, what the team expects from Trent Edwards, an entire look at the defense, the battle for the WR2 spot, and more!

LISTEN NOW!

Last June I wrote this article detailing how teams have allocated their passing yards. Here’s a snip:

I do my projections from the top down. First I project how many offensive plays each team is going to run. Then I project what percentage of them will be rushes and passes. Concentrating on the passing side of the equation for now, the next thing I do is project the team’s passing yards per attempt. Multiply that by the projected attempts and I’ve got a projection for the team’s passing yards.

Then I start divvying up the yards among the pass catchers on the team. To give me a rough estimate, I look at the percentage of the team’s passing yards that have gone to wide receivers, tight ends, and running backs for the past few years. That’s what this article is: the percentage of each team’s passing yards that have gone to the various positions for the last three years.

Here are the NFL averages for the last three years:

          ==== WR =====|=== TE ===|=== RB ==
TM   YR     1  2  3  T |  1  2  T |  1  2  T
============================================
NFL 2004 | 28 20 11 66 | 12  3 17 |  8  4 16
    2005 | 29 18 11 66 | 14  3 18 |  9  4 15
    2006 | 28 19 11 65 | 13  4 18 | 10  4 17

Let’s take a moment to make sure everyone is clear on what this means. Last year, the average NFL team’s top wide receiver (by total receiving yards) accounted for 28% of the team’s yards. The second wide receiver accounted for 19%, the third 11%, and all wide receivers combined accounted for 65%. Similarly, an average NFL team’s top receiving tight end was responsible for 13% of the team’s receiving yards, and so on.

Keep in mind that injuries and other factors can cause these numbers to be a bit misleading at times. The 2005 Eagles, to take one extreme example, show a WR1 percentage of 20% and a WR2 percentage of 14%. But it was probably closer to 40% and 10% while Terrell Owens was on the field.

Over the next several days, we’ll be taking a division-by-division look at how each team has allocated its passing yards during the last three years. Please add your own comments about how these percentages might shake out in 2007.

AFC East

          ==== WR =====|=== TE ===|=== RB ==
TM   YR     1  2  3  T |  1  2  T |  1  2  T
============================================
nyj 2004 | 26 24 12 69 |  6  3  9 | 11  8 22
    2005 | 28 24  8 67 | 11  9 21 |  5  4 12
    2006 | 33 29 10 77 |  9  1 10 |  8  1 13

          ==== WR =====|=== TE ===|=== RB ==
TM   YR     1  2  3  T |  1  2  T |  1  2  T
============================================
buf 2004 | 35 29  5 75 |  7  3 13 |  6  4 12
    2005 | 29 26 16 80 |  5  1  6 |  6  4 15
    2006 | 42 13 13 80 |  8  2  9 |  5  5 11

          ==== WR =====|=== TE ===|=== RB ==
TM   YR     1  2  3  T |  1  2  T |  1  2  T
============================================
mia 2004 | 27 19 11 62 | 23  3 27 |  4  2 11
    2005 | 32 20 13 70 | 17  2 18 |  7  3 11
    2006 | 21 19 19 66 | 18  3 21 |  8  5 13

          ==== WR =====|=== TE ===|=== RB ==
TM   YR     1  2  3  T |  1  2  T |  1  2  T
============================================
nwe 2004 | 23 21 12 67 | 10  5 18 |  7  6 15
    2005 | 23 17 11 65 | 10  5 17 |  6  5 18
    2006 | 21 11 10 50 | 18  7 29 | 10  5 21