2.32: Phillip Merling, DE, Miami Dolphins

Pass rusher had some injury woes but was effective off the edge when healthy. Has the size (6′5″, 272 pounds) that Bill Parcells covets. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.33: Donnie Avery, WR, St. Louis Rams

Quite a surprise. The first WR off the board is a small, uber fast guy considered a mid round pick by most scouts. Hard to believe he can replace Isaac Bruce without a few years of seasoning. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.34: Devin Thomas, WR, Washington Redskins (via Oakland through Atlanta)

The Redskins draft the WR many expected to be first off the WR board. Devin Thomas only had one big year at Michigan but has great size (6′2″, 215 pounds) and can also help as a kickoff returner. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.35: Brandon Flowers, CB, Kansas City Chiefs

If Flowers ran a tenth of a second faster, he would’ve been a mid 1st rounder. Great choice for the rebuilding Chiefs. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.36: Jordy Nelson, WR, Green Bay Packers (via New York Jets)

Another surprising WR selection. Was WR really a need for Green Bay with Driver, Jennings and Jones on the roster? Should help on special teams right away. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.37: Curtis Lofton, LB, Atlanta Falcons

Tackling machine, ideally suited for the inside where he can flow downfield to the ball. Not someone good in space and must be put in the right scheme to succeed. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.38: John Carlson, TE, Seattle Seahawks (via Baltimore)

Mike Holmgren called this a need, and the ‘hawks felt Carlson was a perfect fit for their West Coast offense. Carlson put up big numbers with Brady Quinn under center, as a reminder. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.39: Chilo Rachal, OG, San Francisco 49ers

Rachal gets knocked for not being a great athlete, but he’s technically sound and has a mean streak. As long as he plays inside and isn’t asked to pull and extend to the 2nd level much, he could be a starter immediately. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.40: Tracy Porter, CB, New Orleans Saints

Ironic that the Saints draft a cornerback with the 40th pick; considering there were rumors all week that the 40th pick would be part of a package to acquire Eagles CB Lito Sheppard. Porter is good at tracking the ball but isn’t a sure tackler or much help supporting the run.

2.41: James Hardy, WR, Buffalo Bills

The Bills landed the top corner in the draft last round and, in my opinion, the best receiver in the draft at 2.41. Hardy is a big guy who isn’t afraid of contact. He goes up for the ball and runs good routes; which helps offset a lack of breakaway speed.

2.42: Eddie Royal, WR, Denver Broncos

Royal is one of a handful of receivers who also project as solid returner at the next level. At only 5′8″, 184 pounds, Royal will need to prove he can hold up as a receiver over the course of the season. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.43: Tyrell Johnson, S, Minnesota Vikings (via Carolina through Philadelphia)

Kenny Phillips has the bigger name, but Johnson may have the bigger game. The Vikes continue to bolster their defense with another solid young, physical player. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.44: Matt Forte, RB, Chicago Bears

I’m not crazy about Forte; I don’t believe he’s a special back nor was he the best back left on the board. However, Forte has his supporters and it’s not inconceivable he could earn the starting gig over Cedric Benson sooner rather than later.

2.45: Jordon Dizon, OLB, Detroit Lions

Dizon lacks ideal size and speed; but like many solid NFL linebackers before him, he just makes plays. He’s instinctive and a sound tackler; exactly the kind of guy Rod Marinelli can build around. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.46: Jerome Simpson, WR, Cincinnati Bengals

Further proof that beauty is in the eye of the beholder at WR this year. Simpson wasn’t close to the best WR prospect on the board, but clearly the Bengals felt otherwise. At least, this pick fills a need given the release of Chris Henry and concerns about Chad Johnson’s status.

2.47: Trevor Laws, DT, Philadelphia Eagles (via Minnesota)

The Eagles finally make a pick, and it’s clearly a “best player available” selection. Defensive tackle was hardly a major need, but Laws is a high character, high motor guy who will add depth to an already young tackle rotation.

2.48: Fred Davis, TE, Washington Redskins (via Houston through Atlanta)

The Redskins are committed to getting QB Jason Campbell weapons. First Devin Thomas and now a pass-receiving tight end a few picks later. Davis doesn’t project into an elite tight end, but the Redskins don’t need him to be given the presence of Chris Cooley.

2.49: DeSean Jackson, WR/KR, Philadelphia Eagles

Many Birds fans wouldn’t have complained if Jackson was the pick in the 1st round. So to trade down, grab a 2009 1st rounder as compensation and get DeSean anyway was a coup. He’s tiny (169 pounds) but is blazing fast and unstoppable in the open field. He instantly gives the Eagles the best returner they’ve had in 5 years.

2.50: Calais Campbell, DE, Arizona Cardinals

You don’t find many 6′8″, 280 pound ends; yet Campbell fell into the 2nd round because of an uneven 2007 season. He was a stud in 2006 and, as long as the Cards play him at the right position, should combine with free agent Clark Haggans to improve the Cards pass rush.

2.51: Malcolm Kelly, WR, Washington Redskins

Sure, he’s slower than you would like. But have teams watched this kid play? He’s a polished route runner, has great hands and excellent body control. Very reminiscent of the year Chad Johnson fell because of his slow 40-time; the Skins got a steal.

2.52: Quentin Groves, DE, Jacksonville Jaguars (via Tampa Bay)

The Jags have a stifling defense already, but they aren’t great at putting pressure on opposing QBs. Adding Quentin Groves in the 2nd after taking Derrick Harvey 8th overall goes a long way to changing the Jags pass rush. Groves character issues aside, this was a solid pick.

2.53: Limas Sweed, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers

Some scouts love Sweed, some see him as a bust. At 53rd overall, the Steelers aren’t risking a lot financially to find out if he’s the next Plaxico Burress. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.54: Jason Jones, DE, Tennessee Titans

Jones could replace Antwan Odom right away, but he’s a bit raw to expect that. Eventually the Titans see Jones as a capable 2-way end in their 4-3 defense. His skill set is more suited to defensive tackle, but his size projects him as an end.

2.55: Ray Rice, RB, Baltimore Ravens (via Seattle)

Ray Rice is a local product who was wildly productive as the main ball carrier for Rutgers. While he lacks prototypical size, his low center of gravity and style make him more than capable of being an every down back if needed.

2.56: Brian Brohm, QB, Green Bay Packers (via Cleveland)

Now that’s kind of surprising. Or is it? The Pack took Aaron Rodgers in the 1st when Brett Favre was under center, so why wouldn’t they take the most accurate QB prospect in the 2nd round given Rodgers inexperience? Worst case, he’s a backup for a few years. Best case, he outplays Rodgers and ends up starting in a year or two.

2.57: Chad Henne, QB, Miami Dolphins (via San Diego)

How about that? It looks like Jake Long may be blocking for Chad Henne for a few more years. Another smart pick. He could easily outplay Beck and McCown to win the job; at the very lesaet he’s a big armed, young backup for a good price.

2.58: Dexter Jackson, WR/KR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (via Jacksonville)

This was a reach pick. While Jackson is another potentially dangerous return man; he needs a lot of maturing as a route runner before he can reasonably play WR on a regular basis. Blistering speed (4.33) though and dangerous in the open field.

2.59: Mike Pollak, OG/C, Indianapolis Colts

A classic Colts pick. Their only 1st day pick and it’s a fundamentally sound center that they project as a starting offensive guard for now and possibly a replacement for Jeff Saturday later. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.60: Patrick Lee, DB, Green Bay Packers

A hard worker, Lee may someday start at corner but not for a few seasons. In the meantime, he can be a force on special teams and perhaps play nickel back particularly in run support situations. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.61: Martellus Bennett, TE, Dallas Cowboys

I like this pick more than most. For my money, Bennett was the top TE in this draft. He’s huge, is a good blocker who can become great, and should be a key red zone target given his height and willingness to go up for the ball. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.62: Terrence Wheatley, CB, New England Patriots

The Pats always seem to find value and this was no exception. Wheatley is a legitimate shutdown cover corner who, were it not for myriad injuries in college, would’ve been in the hunt for a top 15 selection. Either way, he’ll help the Pats on defense and special teams.

2.63: Terrell Thomas, CB, New York Giants

Thomas is the 217th USC Trojan to be drafted in the first two rounds (not really, just feels that way). If the Giants view him as a corner, I don’t like this pick. But if they’re going to try to convert him to safety; where his deficiencies can be obfuscated somewhat, the choice makes more sense.

LB Keith Rivers was selected 9th overall by the Cincinnati Bengals. This is one of those picks that appears to be both “best player available” AND fills a major need. The Bengals defense ranked just 27th in yards allowed and 24th in points allowed last year, and desperately needs young playmakers. Rivers fits that bill. He can rush the passer, is a sure tackler and should not be a liability in coverage.

Fantasy Impact: Linebackers are the big-time fantasy playmakers in IDP leagues and Rivers should have a clear path to starting early for the Bengals. Expect Rivers to be a tackling machine right out of the gates.

Today the Bengals finally cut Chris Henry, after his fifth arrest since joining the team - once again, this latest incident is reputed to be related to assault and battery while under the influence of intoxicating substances of one sort or another.

Mike Frazier, Henry’s agent, continued with the same old platitudes about “helping” Henry -

“I just want to say that we’re sorry this all happened, and we will continue to try to work to help Chris,”

- but, quite honestly, there isn’t a cure for the arrogant ignorance displayed by this ex-Bengal. He has, all-too-obviously, fallen into folly due to the special-rules-for-special-athletes paradigm that certain star athletes believe apply to them (Michael Vick is another infamous example of the special-rules disease, which is in some cases terminal to NFL careers).

There is no other way to account for a person who, like Henry, repeatedly flouts the rule of law and civil authority without regard to the consequences for their multi-million dollar career. He truly is, in the words of the latest judge to preside over this most recent case involving Henry, “a one-man crime wave”.

Anyone who is willing to toss away the culmination of their life’s work for the thrill of beating up on an 18-year old is a dysfunctional loser who doesn’t deserve yet another chance in the NFL.

Fantasy owners, this is why character counts in the NFL. When you are sorting out your draft lists later on this year, remember to weight your lists to reflect who is a high-character player and who is a scumbag. When two players have roughly equal prospects for the upcoming season, the smart pick is to add the guy who isn’t a thug to your roster - it may just save you from wasting a draft pick on an idiot like Chris Henry.

The deadline for teams to apply the franchise or transition tag designations ended at 4:30 pm EST yesterday; so now it’s time to recap what happened and evaluate some of the moves (and non-moves).

Twelve (12) teams used the franchise tag designation:

• CB Nmandi Asomugha (Oakland)
• CB Marcus Trufant (Seattle)
• DE Jared Allen (Kansas City)
• DT Albert Haynesworth (Tennessee)
• DT Corey Williams (Green Bay)
• LB Karlos Dansby (Arizona)
• LB Terrell Suggs (Baltimore)
• OT Stacy Andrews (Cincinnati)
• OT Jordan Gross (Carolina)
• S Ken Hamlin (Dallas)
• TE Dallas Clark (Indianapolis)
• TE L.J. Smith (Philadelphia)

Most Surprising Tag: Stacy Andrews

Andrews played quite well last season, but it was his first year as a starter. The Bengals still have Levi Jones and Willie Anderson in the picture; although that may change now that Andrews has been tagged. Given the importance of Carson Palmer and Andrews’ age, the move isn’t a total shocker; although few outside of die hard Bengals fans expected it.

Most Surprising Non-Tag: Randy Moss 

As we discussed last night, not tagging Randy Moss is shocking only if they don’t already have a long-term deal completed; but unannounced until the February 29th start of free agency. We expect he IS under contract, but if this proves untrue, this may be the most shocking non-tag decision of the modern era.

Other Surprising Non-Tags 

• OT Flozell Adams (Dallas) – Adams is no spring chicken, and the Cowboys did use their tag on someone else (Ken Hamlin), but this is a bold move if the Cowboys don’t end up re-signing Adams. He has played at a high level the last few seasons and the team doesn’t have someone of his caliber (or close to it) currently on the roster. Will Jerry Jones be willing to go to battle with a young, unproven tackle in 2008?
• PK Josh Brown (Seattle) — The Seahawks tagged Brown last year and it was thought he could be tagged again this season; but now free agency looms. It’s never an easy decision to let a proven kicker walk, but perhaps they didn’t see the logic in making him the highest paid PK in the league.

Interesting Tag Minutiae

• Exclusive tag versus non-exclusive – As we discussed earlier this week, Nmandi Asomugha was tagged with an exclusive franchise designation, meaning the Raiders paid him more (the average of the 2008 top 5 projected salaries versus the 2007 in a normal tag) in exchange for keeping Asomugha from being able to negotiate with other teams. It’s telling that only one of twelve teams opted to use this tag; as it involves paying a player more yet brings less wiggle room. Why a team would pass up the idea of getting 2 first round picks if a team wants their free agent badly enough is a mystery (the Raiders would still have had the right to match).
• Is Suggs a linebacker or defensive end? — The Baltimore Ravens tagged Terrell Suggs as a linebacker, but he has filed a grievance contending he should be paid as a defensive end. The difference? About $800K for the one-year tender. This matter will be settled shortly (if Suggs lined up more than 50% of the snaps as an end, he’ll get his extra dough), but it’s odd that Suggs, who has gone to the Pro Bowl twice as a LINEBACKER would think of himself otherwise.

Most Likely to Sign a Long-term Deal: Dallas Clark

OK, this is cheating since Clark already signed a 6-year deal to remain with the Colts.

Least Likely to Sign a Long-term Deal:  L.J. Smith

The Eagles remain concerned about Smith’s health and likely won’t agree to a long-term extension without seeing improvement on the field. This is basically a one-year option to retain a talented, system TE in a very weak free agent market for tight ends.

How did we do in our predictions?

We previewed each division and our thoughts on potential tag candidates. Overall, I’d say we did quite well.

• We correctly predicted 9 of 10 ‘definites’; our only whiff was on Randy Moss
• We noted that Flozell Adams and Ken Hamlin were possibilities in Dallas [although we leaned toward Adams]
• We noted that Brown and Trufant were possibilities in Seattle [and leaned toward Trufant]
• We noted DT Corey Williams and WR Bernard Berrian as possible tags [one out of two]
• We suggested that Justin Smith shouldn’t be tagged

Now it’s onto free agency and the NFL draft!
Related Blogs:

• ‘Tis the Season for Tagging
• NFC East Potential Tag Candidates
• NFC North Potential Tag Candidates
• NFC South Potential Tag Candidates
• NFC West Potential Tag Candidates
• AFC East Potential Tag Candidates
• AFC North Potential Tag Candidates
• AFC South Potential Tag Candidates
• AFC West Potential Tag Candidates

Baltimore Ravens

LB Terrell Suggs

Suggs has five years in the league yet won’t turn 26 until October. Although his sack totals were down this year (just 5), he’s a proven play-maker who is many years younger than a typical marquee free agent. The Ravens can ill afford to let him leave after losing Adalius Thomas last offseason.

xxxxx

Cincinnati Bengals

DE Justin Smith

Last season the Bengals opted to tag DE Justin Smith despite questions about whether he was an elite defensive end. The logic was that he was a hard worker, and one of the few plus defenders on a defense that needed lots of improvement. Fast forward to this offseason and reports are again surfacing that Smith may get tagged; which, if true, begs the question: WHY? Smith notched only 2 sacks last year and has never had more than the 8.5 of his rookie season. The Bengals defense was awful last year and is more than one player away. In addition, the team has other major issues at play including: T.J. Houshmandzadeh wants a raise, Chad Johnson isn’t necessarily happy, and the team has other key free agents (Williams, Andrews, Johnson).

Cleveland Browns

The Browns resurgent 2007 brings with it challenges in free agency. RB Jamal Lewis gambled on a one-year deal last year and delivered a monster season which should bring him a market rate, multi-year deal. While Lewis is important to the Browns, his age and career workload likely precludes them from tagging him. The other major free agent is QB Derek Anderson; but Anderson is a restricted free agent so Cleveland has the right to match any offer. As a result, don’t look for the Browns to use either designation.

Pittsburgh Steelers

OG Alan Faneca is the best free agent guard on the market, and has been an important cog in the Steelers offensive machine for years. Yet, I’m not listing him as a potential tag candidate because the Steelers seem ready to let him leave via free agency.

Thought just occurred to me today as I was looking over this weekend’s games and the resulting fantasy rankings:

Three of the four AFC North teams have elite fantasy QBs at the helm right now:

• Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) — 2,020 yards/22 TDs/7 INTs = 3rd ranked QB
• Derek Anderson (CLE) — 2,231 yards/20 TDs/9 INTs = 4th ranked QB
• Carson Palmer (CIN) — 2,464 yards/16 TDs/10 INTs = 7th ranked QB

What’s more surprising, that a division with its history steeped in ball-control, hard-nosed football would have three big-time passers OR that Carson Palmer is the 3rd most productive passer in his own division?

Training camp is TOUGH. Veterans hate it, some guys actually retire in order to avoid it. But camp is also a ray of hope, a chance to chase your dream. For some guys, their roster spots are assured and camp is simply a grind on the way toward competing for a playoff berth. But for many, camp is about EARNING their roster spot. With 90+ people invited to training camps but only 53-man rosters to open the season, there are a ton of hard-working athletes who go through the entire grind of the preseason only to be given an unemployment notice.

The stress of being visited by the Turk has to be unimaginable if you’re one of those fringe roster guys. A late round rookie at a position with considerable depth…a wily veteran facing a new coach and a youth movement…a 3rd stringer TE or QB who tries to play so well that the coaches feel compelled to find a spot for him.

But for as stressful as cut down day is across the league, at least you know it’s coming. The guys I feel bad for are a different sort. I feel bad for the guys who MAKE the 53-man roster, only to be released a day or two later.

September 1st rolls around, you bucked the odds, beat the system and have found your place on the TEAM. And then, a day or two later you unexpectedly get called into the coaches office and you’re told they’re “going in a different direction.” OUCH.

So in recognition of the guys who DON’T see it coming, here are a few of this year’s victims:

• WR Reche Caldwell (formerly New England Patriots) — Caldwell was considered the odd man out this offseason. After all, the Patriots acquired Randy Moss, Wes Welker, Donte Stallworth and Kelley Washington. But Caldwell played well throughout camp and made the final 53-man roster. That is, until the team opted to bring Marcellus Rivers back as an extra tight end.
• RB Jason Snelling (formerly Atlanta Falcons) — Jason Snelling was rock solid throughout camp and got important minutes in place of the injured Warrick Dunn. But when Dunn returned Snelling continued to impress; and seemed to have earned his role as the 3rd tailback; making the 53-man roster. Unfortunately, Artose Pinner’s gain is his loss.
• RB Quincy Wilson (formerly Cincinnati Bengals) — Seemed like he had locked down the 3rd RB spot behind Rudi Johnson and Kenny Watson, but apparently not.
• RB Rich Alexis (formerly St. Louis Rams) — Rich Alexis broke camp as the Rams 4th back. While he wasn’t likely to have contributed much on offense, he MADE IT. That is, until the Rams took notice of Antonio Pittman, the 4th round pick who was surprisingly cut by an uber-deep New Orleans squad.
• TE Ben Patrick (formerly Arizona Cardinals) — Ben Patrick was an uber-athletic prospect out of the University of Delaware who went to the Cardinals; a team desperate for TE help. Unfortunately, he was cut loose in favor of WR Jerheme Urban.

This is by no means an exhaustive list, just a sampling of some of the offensive players who thought their months of blood, sweat and tears had paid off; when in fact it really hadn’t.

The NFL Season is just two weeks away, and Fantasy Football drafts are happening all over the country. My eyes are about to pop out of my head from watching 40+ NFL preseason games either in entirety, in fast forward (stopping to catch several key plays) or even on the NFL.com highlight reel. My two DVRs are jam-packed still, but time is a-wastin’.

With that in mind, I have gone through my offensive player rankings for Footballguys for perhaps the last time before Week 1. For obvious reasons I cannot provide my entire rankings list here (subscriber only content), but I can tell you about a few tweaks that I made. There are several changes across the board, mostly minor upticks and downgrades, but I thought it would help some to know about the major moves I made and why:

Wide Receivers:

Take a look here for my overall WR redraft rankings as well as several other Footballguys staff’s opinions.

Wide receiver is a tricky position to rank, as here at Footballguys we focus on ranking them based solely on touchdown and yardage (no points per reception bonuses). Still, WRs are valuable and I see a big dropoff after about 20 WRs go off the fantasy draft boards this year. If you require starting three of them or if you get the “PPR” bonus, this is a very important position. Bear in mind that if you start 3 or have a flex position, your fourth (or even fifth) WR will be playing a few weeks for you as a starter. Draft accordingly.

Based on what I have seen, read and heard over the past few weeks, I have only made a few changes in the Top 20. Torry Holt’s knee cannot go unnoticed, so he’s a downgrade for certain. Marques Colston isn’t getting much press either, but he’s also not 100%. With so many options in the Top 20, I want “sure things”, and these guys are less than that at this moment. I’ll target a Roy Williams or a Reggie Wayne instead.

Lee Evans has impressed me, even after his amazing two-83-yard TD game last season. He’ll catch anything you throw deep at him far more often than not, and that’s a guy I want on my fantasy team. T.J. Houshmandzadeh is another top name that could really mean “Championship” for you this fantasy season.

A few other situations have me looking hard at their team’s receivers. Pittsburgh is going to throw more this year and I think that benefits Santonio Holmes more than Hines Ward. In fact, I think Holmes could be the #1 option in that passing game this season. Move Holmes up, Ward down a little.

The Giants will be throwing the ball around, but the question is who will catch it. Everyone seems dinged - from Plaxico Burress (ankle) to Michael Jennings (out for the year) to the return of an older Amani Toomer (torn ACL last year). That tells me to take a look at Steve Smith later in the draft for a guy with upside.

Staying in the NFC East, Terry Glenn is not getting younger either and he is also hurt. Terrell Owens is very very good, but he’s also not built out of steel. Grab Patrick Crayton who could be a starter several times for the Cowboys this season. I’ve already moved him up my draft board (and Glenn down some).

Next up…. Tight Ends.

Continuing on…I thought it might be helpful to give you a few quick hitting comments on which players are rising and falling in MY (i.e., different than Dodds’) projections this preseason.

Up next, the AFC North:

RISING

• Ben Roethlisberger, PIT (Rank: QB10) — Healthy + Weapons + New OC = Top 10 potential
• Brady Quinn, CLE (Rank: QB31) — If he doesn’t start 10+ games, I’ll be shocked
• Jerome Harrison, CLE (Rank: RB60) — 3rd down role emerging
• Braylon Edwards, CLE (Rank: WR20) — Healthy + Focused + Brady Quinn = Top 20 with upside
• Santonio Holmes, PIT (Rank: WR28) — New offense + Experience + Healthy Big Ben = Breakout potential
• Demetrius Williams, BAL (Rank: WR54) — Not a starter…yet
• Tab Perry, CIN (Rank: WR80) — Pushing for WR3 role while Henry is suspended
• Daniel Coats, CIN (Rank: TE43) — Solid camp, TE2 with only Reggie Kelly ahead of him

FALLING

• Charlie Frye, CLE (Rank: QB36) — Looks like the least of two evils for Week One
• Jamal Lewis, CLE (Rank: RB27) — 2 yards and a cloud of dust = uninteresting at current ADP
• Derrick Mason, BAL (Rank: WR40) — Still a starter…but for all 16 games?
• Antonio Chatman, CIN (Rank: WR108) — Struggling for a top 4 position

Let’s hear your thoughts…where do you agree? Where do you disagree and why?

While it can be dangerous to read too much into the first “official” depth charts and the fluff pieces beat writers produce early in the preseason, there are always important nuggets to be gleaned from watching preseason games and carefully considering the comments of coaches and coordinators. Here’s a look at some of the changes in the IDP landscape thus far.Winners

• ILB Adalius Thomas — As was reported during OTAs, Thomas lined up all over the field last week but primarily at LILB. That’s often been the better tackling position in the Belichick scheme in recent years. Thomas looked a little uncomfortable inside at times but the combination of increased run support opportunity and pass rush skill may prove a lethal combination in the boxscore.
• DE Robert Geathers — After the team hinted that he would remain in a situational pass rushing role, Geathers played every down with the first team defense. Geathers has flashed decent run supporting skill in prior seasons and has 45 solo, 10 sack potential in the full time role.
• SS Deon Grant — Some felt Grant was in for a big bump in stats after leaving the limiting Jacksonville scheme for the greener Seahawk defense but the news that Grant would take on a more traditional strong safety role should make him an even safer bet for 2007.
• SS Chris Harris — Harris became a must roster after the Panthers acquired him from the Bears as camp began. Harris may not be a special NFL talent, but his IDP value goes from non-existent as a backup with Chicago to the starting SS in Carolina.
• WLB Landon Johnson — Another Bengal who looks to have a bigger role than initially expected, Johnson started with the first team last week. An underrated all-around backer, Johnson played well enough the first week to keep Ed Hartwell a backup MLB/WLB.
• OLB Antwan Peek — Peek isn’t a stud NFL talent, but Willie McGinest’s back surgery and Kamerion Wimbley’s beastly performance in the first preseason game could push Peek into every week starter status in big play leagues this year.

Losers

• OLB Chike Okeafor — Okeafor is likely out for the season after suffering a torn bicep muscle last week. Owners looking to use Okeafor as a DL and get OLB stat lines are going to have to find another option to exploit the “Bryan Thomas” classification loophole.
• MLB Ahmad Brooks — Caleb Miller replaced Brooks in nickel situations in the first preseason game despite earlier indications that Brooks would be an every down linebacker. There’s still time for Brooks to prove himself in coverage and the team has praised his effort in practice, but this isn’t a good start to 2007.
• FS Will Demps — The Giants began camp with Gibril Wilson at FS, James Butler at SS and Demps, who was one of the better producing free safeties in IDP leagues last year, on the second team. Demps is apparently rotating in with the first team again this week but the writing may be on the wall for him.
• MLB Brian Simmons — A nagging chronic knee problem and the surprisingly consistent play of last year’s starter Mark Simoneau has Simmons stuck on the second team. If Simmons can’t get on the field and impress soon, he’ll have a hard time securing any IDP value in 2007 without an injury to another starter.
• WLB Keith Ellison — While it may not be set in stone yet, Ellison sat in nickel situations during the first preseason game. Though it appears Ellison will shift with the offensive formation to remain a WLB on all base defensive snaps, sitting in the nickel will keep him from becoming more than a LB3.
• OLB Bryan Thomas — The NFL.com gamebook and Jets official depth chart has finally be updated to reflect Thomas’ correct position as an OLB. Those holding out hope that Thomas will remain a DL in your IDP league have hopefully already made other arrangements.

Other ongoing storylines:

Patrick Willis is still behind Derek Smith at RILB in the 49er base defense. Roman Harper looks fully recovered and may play linebacker in the nickel defense for New Orleans. Demorrio Williams has been cleared for contact nearly a month before he was expected to return and is running with the first team in Atlanta. Gibril Wilson has been tabbed for the big play FS role that Brian Dawkins played in Philadelphia. Eagle LB Takeo Spikes is turning heads in camp and may have recovered his sideline-to-sideline range.

Keep an eye on our free IDP centered message board at FootballGuys for breaking news and quick analysis on the defensive side of the ball. And watch for our new weekly IDP podcast on The Audible which will debut next week.

Speculation surrounding the season-ending injury to Bengals’ RB Kenny Irons has been rampant in fantasy circles - will Kenny Watson see an bigger piece of the pie? Will the Bengals bring in a veteran backup to help Rudi Johnson to carry the load?

Well, it appears the team may opt for a simpler solution - rely on Rudi Johnson more than ever during 2007. Mark Curnutte of the Cincinnati Enquirer reports that OC Bob Bratkowski is planning on Johnson handling the ball more than usual this coming season.

“He’s the best he’s ever looked in the entire time he has been here. He really has taken good care of himself the past two years, and it shows…Knock on wood, he’s healthy. He’s stronger at the end of the game than he is at the beginning. We’re going to have to lean on him a little more than we thought we would. And we’ll have some other guys to spell him, give him a break. It’s just not as much as we thought.”

Johnson is fine with an increased workload, stating on Sunday “That’s my game. It’s why I train so hard. I come in. I am ready to play every game, week in and week out. I have to be ready and fresh whenever my number is called.”

Johnson’s workload over the past years can be seen on his Footballguys.com player page - he carried the ball 341 times with 23 receptions last year, and had 337 carries with 23 receptions during 2005. Assuming coach Bratkowski is serious about increasing Johnson’s workload, it would be no surprise to see Johnson go over 400 touches this season, which means Johnson has a lot of upside potential. Right now he’s ranked as the 10th best fantasy RB, but if he adds 40-50 touches to his “usual” workload during 2007 he could easily land among the league’s top 5 fantasy RBs.

It looks like Johnson should be bumped up draft lists a few spots heading into the middle of August.

OUCH…Kenny Irons, the promising rookie running back is lost for the season with a torn ACL. Irons is the latest in a long line of Bengals backs who have suffered ignominious injuries, most recently Chris Perry and perhaps most infamously, Ki-Jana Carter.

This is a big blow to the Bengals backfield as the team was looking for a complementary back to go along with Rudi Johnson’s bruising style. Kenny Watson, who played somewhat well as a rookie in Washington, has toiled on the Bengals bench each of the last three seasons. It now looks like he’ll get carries, by default. But don’t rule out the Bengals bringing in a veteran cast off from another team, particularly as camp cuts begin to transpire.

LISTEN NOW!
In This Episode: Cecil Lammey and Sigmund Bloom review the QBs of the AFC North in the Preseason Watch List Edition of The Audible. Topics Include: Steve McNair in the twilight of his career, Troy Smiths future in the NFL, Carson Palmer as one of the best in the league, the QB controversy in Cleveland, can Big Ben run a more wide open offense, plus more!

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LISTEN NOW!
In This Episode: Cecil Lammey, Sigmund Bloom, and Jason Wood review the RBs of the AFC North in the Preseason Watch List Edition of The Audible. Topics Include: how good can Willis McGahee be in Baltimore, will Rudi Johnsons playing time be less with the arrival of Kenny Irons, Jamal Lewis as a Cleveland Brown, how great Willie Parker can be in the new Steelers offense, plus more!

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LISTEN NOW!
In This Episode: Cecil Lammey, Sigmund Bloom, and Jeff Tefertiller review the WRs of the AFC North in the Preseason Watch List Edition of The Audible. Topics Include: Derrick Mason, Mark Clayton, Ocho Cinco aka Chad Johnson, will TJ Houshmanzadeh stay healthy enough to be an elite receiver, Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow, Hines Ward, Santonio Holmes, plus more!

Every team has their share of coulda, shoulda, wouldas. Cleveland fans have The Fumble and The Drive. Raider fans are left to wonder about the Immaculate Reception, the Tuck Rule and Bo. Buffalo fans, well, let’s not dredge up those memories again. Bengal fans have their own painful memories. Pete Johnson stuffed on 4th and 1 or Lewis Billups dropping an interception in the end zone at crucial points in separate Super Bowls, Carson Palmer lying in a heap in a 2005 playoff game and any number of failed top draft picks. The passing of offensive innovator and former Bengal assistant coach Bill Walsh may have reminded long time Cincinnati homers of possibly the biggest what could’ve been in franchise history.

Everyone knows the Bill Walsh story. Primary architect of one variation of the West Coast offense, three time Super Bowl winning head coach of the San Francisco 49ers and widely considered among the most innovative coaches of all time. Casual football fans may not know the rest of the story. Walsh got his start in the NFL as an assistant with the Oakland Raiders but made his name as an assistant offensive coach in Cincinnati after joining Paul Brown’s staff in 1968. Walsh brought the vertical passing game of another of the game’s offensive architects, Sid Gillman, to Cincinnati and soon had the perfect quarterback to run his playbook, Greg Cook.

Who the heck is Greg Cook you ask? As a rookie in 1969 in Walsh’s vertical offense, Cook rode his freakish combination of arm strength, touch and deep accuracy to an amazing 17.5 yards per completed pass. Put in perspective, Daunte Culpepper averaged 12.4 yards per completion in his historic 2004, Peyton Manning 13.6. Some of the best deep receiving threats in the league today fall short of that number. Unfortunately, Cook, the 1969 AFL Rookie of the Year blew out his shoulder in third game of the year. Although he finished the year, Cook was never the same and attempted only three more passes after the 1969 season — four seasons later.

In later interviews, Walsh still lamented what could have been with Cook. In fact, Walsh himself wonders if he would’ve created the West Coast offense if Cook had stayed healthy and fulfilled his promise. Paul Zimmerman asked Walsh how things would’ve been different if he had Cook for more than one season. Things would have been “completely different,” Walsh said. “It would’ve started off the deep strike and everything else would’ve played off that. It would’ve set records that would have never been broken.” This from the man who coached Joe Montana and Jerry Rice.

Unfortunately for Bengal fans, that’s only half the story.

Although Walsh’s version of the vertical offense could have been sick with Greg Cook and Isaac Curtis, the innovator found a way to modify his passing attack with short, precise passes and mulitple wide receiving options putting pressure on the defense with timing routes — what is now known as the West Coast offense but could rightly be called the Cincinnati offense. Walsh again found a near perfect fit for his new playbook in Ken Anderson, a smart, calm, precise passer. Walsh’s offense was clicking for the Bengals in the early 1970s. By the end of the 1975 season, Anderson was running the offense to perfection with a 60% plus completion rate and 8 yards plus per passing attempt. Curtis had been to three consecutive Pro Bowls and was a star. The Bengals had made the playoffs in 1973 and 1975. The future was ridiculously bright.

Then Bengal head coach and patriarch Paul Brown retired and handed the reins to long time offensive assistant Tiger Johnson instead of Walsh, who resigned in disappointment. The rest, as they say, is history. Walsh spent a season in San Diego as an assistant and coached Stanford for two seasons before taking the head coaching job in San Francisco where his offense flourished under Joe Montana. Johnson’s Bengal teams steadily declined and he was fired in 1978. Cincinnati made two Super Bowls in the 1980s, only to lose both to the franchise Bill Walsh built.

Rest in peace, Bill Walsh. This Bengal fan still longs for what could’ve been.

There has been much discussion on the FBG message board about how the loss of WR Chris Henry will affect the fantasy stats of QB Carson Palmer this year. Henry, suspended for the first eight games of the season under the NFL’s new personal conduct policy, challenged Brandon Stokely for “Most Frequently Rostered NFL WR3″ on fantasy rosters in recent seasons after consistently providing Palmer with a legitimate downfield threat and red zone option. How can the Bengals possibly replace Henry’s 2006 contributions of 16.8 ypr and 9 touchdowns?

Consider third year WR Tab Perry. Most observers have seen Chris Henry’s freakish combination of size, strength and speed enable him to exploit mismatches against the opposition’s third or fourth corner. Because Tab Perry isn’t a household name, many observers and fantasy owners may not realize how similar Perry is to Henry. Perry may not be as long or lanky as Henry, but he is a solid 6′3″, 220 pounds and, as demonstrated by his special teams play and his being recruited to play safety in college, does not shy away from physical contact. Few know that Perry had a better 40 time at the 2005 combine than Henry, 4.36 to 4.40. Although Perry doesn’t have the elite body control and ability to snatch the ball at its highest point that Henry has, Perry’s skill set compares favorably to Henry’s as a third down/red zone option.

Even while Henry was active last year, Palmer was growing comfortable with Perry as an option during critical game situations. Before suffering a severe hip injury in Week 2, Perry was on his way to becoming a trusted third down option. Three of his five receptions last year converted a third down into a first down for the Bengals, at an average of 20 yards per catch.

By all accounts, Perry’s hip is fully healed and sound for contact. With Antonio Chatman already struggling with a hamstring injury in camp, Perry has only to beat out former track star Bennie Brazell (another player with freakish measurables worth watching), Glenn Holt and Reggie McNeal to win the 3rd WR role while Henry is out. If Perry can return to his early 2007 form, it isn’t out of the question that he may find such a comfort level with Palmer that he continues to get the call in clutch situations when Henry returns.

Those in deep leagues or survivor leagues take note, Tab Perry might save you in a pinch during bye weeks over the first half of this season. As of July 26th, Perry carried an ADP of 300 as the 100th WR off the board, behind such luminaries as Mewelde Moore, Laurent Robinson and JJ Arrington. While he is not a good bet to rack up mulitple receptions every week or approach Henry’s 15 TD in 27 games pace, Perry is a mortal lock to obliterate that ADP. Given his competition in camp, he’s one of the safest flyer picks available at the end of your draft.

In this thread in the Footballguys.com message board, the following question arose: can a QB finish outside of the top ten in fantasy points if he stays healthy and he’s got two WRs in the top ten?

Normally, of course, having two stud WRs would be more than enough to catapult a QB to the top ten. Last year, Peyton Manning ranked 2nd with two top ten WRs (Reggie Wayne and Marvin Harrison), and Carson Palmer (2005) and Brett Favre (2004) both ranked fourth in years where their top two WRs finished in the top ten (Johnson/Houshmandzadeh & Driver/Walker, respectively). Since 1970, 37 teams have had a pair of WRs rank in the top ten in a given season, or exactly one duo per year. Thirty-six of those pairs saw their team QB rank in the top ten in fantasy points.

In 1984, John Stallworth was the number three fantasy receiver and Louis Lipps was the number 10 WR. That season, the Pittsburgh team QB ranked 12th in fantasy points. Outside of that season, every other time a team has seen two WRs rank in the top ten, its team QB has also ranked in the top ten.

Why is this relevant to 2006? The Footballguys Expert Rankings currently have Matt Leinart as the 11th best QB, with Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin also in the top eleven at wide receiver. It seems unlikely that if Boldin and Fitzgerald reach their projected success, that Leinart will fall anywhere near QB 11.

Here’s the full list of WR pairs, their ranks, and their corresponding team QB ranks:

Year	TM	WR1	rank	WR2	rank	QB	rank
2006	ind	MarvinHarrison	1	ReggieWayne	3	teamQB	2
2005	ari	LarryFitzgerald	2	AnquanBoldin	8	teamQB	4
2004	gnb	JavonWalker	2	DonaldDriver	10	teamQB	4
2004	ind	MarvinHarrison	5	ReggieWayne	8	teamQB	1
2002	pit	HinesWard	3	PlaxicoBurress	8	teamQB	7
2002	buf	EricMoulds	4	PeerlessPrice	7	teamQB	6
2001	rai	TimBrown	9	JerryRice	10	teamQB	6
2000	den	RodSmith	4	EdMcCaffrey	8	teamQB	5
2000	min	RandyMoss	1	CrisCarter	10	teamQB	2
2000	ram	IsaacBruce	6	TorryHolt	7	teamQB	1
1999	min	RandyMoss	2	CrisCarter	3	teamQB	4
1999	car	PatrickJeffers	7	MuhsinMuhammad	10	teamQB	2
1998	min	RandyMoss	1	CrisCarter	7	teamQB	2
1998	sfo	TerrellOwens	3	JerryRice	8	teamQB	1
1996	min	CrisCarter	7	JakeReed	9	teamQB	9
1995	det	HermanMoore	3	BrettPerriman	8	teamQB	3
1992	atl	AndreRison	4	MichaelHaynes	9	teamQB	3
1992	oil	ErnestGivins	6	HaywoodJeffires	7	teamQB	2
1991	atl	MichaelHaynes	5	AndreRison	7	teamQB	5
1991	buf	AndreReed	4	JamesLofton	9	teamQB	2
1991	sfo	JerryRice	1	JohnTaylor	10	teamQB	1
1990	oil	ErnestGivins	4	HaywoodJeffires	6	teamQB	1
1989	was	GaryClark	7	ArtMonk	10	teamQB	8
1989	sfo	JerryRice	1	JohnTaylor	9	teamQB	1
1987	oil	DrewHill	7	ErnestGivins	9	teamQB	6
1986	nyj	WesleyWalker	5	AlToon	7	teamQB	6
1986	mia	MarkDuper	3	MarkClayton	4	teamQB	1
1985	sea	SteveLargent	5	DarylTurner	9	teamQB	6
1985	dal	TonyHill	8	MikeRenfro	10	teamQB	5
1984	pit	JohnStallworth	3	LouisLipps	10	teamQB	12
1984	mia	MarkClayton	1	MarkDuper	7	teamQB	1
1979	dal	TonyHill	5	DrewPearson	7	teamQB	2
1979	nwe	StanleyMorgan	2	HaroldJackson	10	teamQB	1
1978	min	SammyWhite	8	AhmadRashad	9	teamQB	8
1978	pit	LynnSwann	5	JohnStallworth	7	teamQB	6
1977	pit	JohnStallworth	4	LynnSwann	6	teamQB	3
1974	rai	CliffBranch	1	FredBiletnikoff	10	teamQB	4

There are several teams that have questions regarding their defensive starters. If you are looking for some potential sleepers, here are a couple of important situations that IDP (Individual Defensive Players) owners should keep an eye on:

1. Cincinnati Bengals: Odell Thurman is eligible for reinstatement. What does this mean for the Bengals? They appear committed to Ahmad Brooks at middle linebacker. Could Thurman play on the weak side? He has the speed and athleticism to play there, but will he really get a chance to compete? This is a situation worth watching closely, because Thurman has the ability to be a top 10 LB in IDP leagues, and he is highly unlikely to be drafted anywhere near the top 10 LBs. He is a classic risk/reward sleeper candidate, and may be worth using a late round pick on.

2. Carolina Panthers: Dan Morgan is a huge question mark this season. He has a long history of concussions and his ability to play this season is unknown. The Panthers drafted Jon Beason and it would appear he would be the starter in the middle should Morgan not play. If Morgan manages to play, Beason seems to be the favorite to start on the weak side. Either way, Beason should have some fantasy value. But if Morgan plays, he could be a solid LB for IDP players, although it may not be for long based on his history of injuries. He might make for a nice late round pick, because when he manages to play, he usually puts up solid fantasy numbers. It’s probably not advisable to risk much on him, but a selection in the last round or two may be worth the chance.

Agree with my sleeper picks? Have your own to share? Feel free to join in the discussion on the IDP Forum on our message boards.