2.32: Phillip Merling, DE, Miami Dolphins

Pass rusher had some injury woes but was effective off the edge when healthy. Has the size (6′5″, 272 pounds) that Bill Parcells covets. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.33: Donnie Avery, WR, St. Louis Rams

Quite a surprise. The first WR off the board is a small, uber fast guy considered a mid round pick by most scouts. Hard to believe he can replace Isaac Bruce without a few years of seasoning. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.34: Devin Thomas, WR, Washington Redskins (via Oakland through Atlanta)

The Redskins draft the WR many expected to be first off the WR board. Devin Thomas only had one big year at Michigan but has great size (6′2″, 215 pounds) and can also help as a kickoff returner. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.35: Brandon Flowers, CB, Kansas City Chiefs

If Flowers ran a tenth of a second faster, he would’ve been a mid 1st rounder. Great choice for the rebuilding Chiefs. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.36: Jordy Nelson, WR, Green Bay Packers (via New York Jets)

Another surprising WR selection. Was WR really a need for Green Bay with Driver, Jennings and Jones on the roster? Should help on special teams right away. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.37: Curtis Lofton, LB, Atlanta Falcons

Tackling machine, ideally suited for the inside where he can flow downfield to the ball. Not someone good in space and must be put in the right scheme to succeed. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.38: John Carlson, TE, Seattle Seahawks (via Baltimore)

Mike Holmgren called this a need, and the ‘hawks felt Carlson was a perfect fit for their West Coast offense. Carlson put up big numbers with Brady Quinn under center, as a reminder. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.39: Chilo Rachal, OG, San Francisco 49ers

Rachal gets knocked for not being a great athlete, but he’s technically sound and has a mean streak. As long as he plays inside and isn’t asked to pull and extend to the 2nd level much, he could be a starter immediately. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.40: Tracy Porter, CB, New Orleans Saints

Ironic that the Saints draft a cornerback with the 40th pick; considering there were rumors all week that the 40th pick would be part of a package to acquire Eagles CB Lito Sheppard. Porter is good at tracking the ball but isn’t a sure tackler or much help supporting the run.

2.41: James Hardy, WR, Buffalo Bills

The Bills landed the top corner in the draft last round and, in my opinion, the best receiver in the draft at 2.41. Hardy is a big guy who isn’t afraid of contact. He goes up for the ball and runs good routes; which helps offset a lack of breakaway speed.

2.42: Eddie Royal, WR, Denver Broncos

Royal is one of a handful of receivers who also project as solid returner at the next level. At only 5′8″, 184 pounds, Royal will need to prove he can hold up as a receiver over the course of the season. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.43: Tyrell Johnson, S, Minnesota Vikings (via Carolina through Philadelphia)

Kenny Phillips has the bigger name, but Johnson may have the bigger game. The Vikes continue to bolster their defense with another solid young, physical player. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.44: Matt Forte, RB, Chicago Bears

I’m not crazy about Forte; I don’t believe he’s a special back nor was he the best back left on the board. However, Forte has his supporters and it’s not inconceivable he could earn the starting gig over Cedric Benson sooner rather than later.

2.45: Jordon Dizon, OLB, Detroit Lions

Dizon lacks ideal size and speed; but like many solid NFL linebackers before him, he just makes plays. He’s instinctive and a sound tackler; exactly the kind of guy Rod Marinelli can build around. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.46: Jerome Simpson, WR, Cincinnati Bengals

Further proof that beauty is in the eye of the beholder at WR this year. Simpson wasn’t close to the best WR prospect on the board, but clearly the Bengals felt otherwise. At least, this pick fills a need given the release of Chris Henry and concerns about Chad Johnson’s status.

2.47: Trevor Laws, DT, Philadelphia Eagles (via Minnesota)

The Eagles finally make a pick, and it’s clearly a “best player available” selection. Defensive tackle was hardly a major need, but Laws is a high character, high motor guy who will add depth to an already young tackle rotation.

2.48: Fred Davis, TE, Washington Redskins (via Houston through Atlanta)

The Redskins are committed to getting QB Jason Campbell weapons. First Devin Thomas and now a pass-receiving tight end a few picks later. Davis doesn’t project into an elite tight end, but the Redskins don’t need him to be given the presence of Chris Cooley.

2.49: DeSean Jackson, WR/KR, Philadelphia Eagles

Many Birds fans wouldn’t have complained if Jackson was the pick in the 1st round. So to trade down, grab a 2009 1st rounder as compensation and get DeSean anyway was a coup. He’s tiny (169 pounds) but is blazing fast and unstoppable in the open field. He instantly gives the Eagles the best returner they’ve had in 5 years.

2.50: Calais Campbell, DE, Arizona Cardinals

You don’t find many 6′8″, 280 pound ends; yet Campbell fell into the 2nd round because of an uneven 2007 season. He was a stud in 2006 and, as long as the Cards play him at the right position, should combine with free agent Clark Haggans to improve the Cards pass rush.

2.51: Malcolm Kelly, WR, Washington Redskins

Sure, he’s slower than you would like. But have teams watched this kid play? He’s a polished route runner, has great hands and excellent body control. Very reminiscent of the year Chad Johnson fell because of his slow 40-time; the Skins got a steal.

2.52: Quentin Groves, DE, Jacksonville Jaguars (via Tampa Bay)

The Jags have a stifling defense already, but they aren’t great at putting pressure on opposing QBs. Adding Quentin Groves in the 2nd after taking Derrick Harvey 8th overall goes a long way to changing the Jags pass rush. Groves character issues aside, this was a solid pick.

2.53: Limas Sweed, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers

Some scouts love Sweed, some see him as a bust. At 53rd overall, the Steelers aren’t risking a lot financially to find out if he’s the next Plaxico Burress. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.54: Jason Jones, DE, Tennessee Titans

Jones could replace Antwan Odom right away, but he’s a bit raw to expect that. Eventually the Titans see Jones as a capable 2-way end in their 4-3 defense. His skill set is more suited to defensive tackle, but his size projects him as an end.

2.55: Ray Rice, RB, Baltimore Ravens (via Seattle)

Ray Rice is a local product who was wildly productive as the main ball carrier for Rutgers. While he lacks prototypical size, his low center of gravity and style make him more than capable of being an every down back if needed.

2.56: Brian Brohm, QB, Green Bay Packers (via Cleveland)

Now that’s kind of surprising. Or is it? The Pack took Aaron Rodgers in the 1st when Brett Favre was under center, so why wouldn’t they take the most accurate QB prospect in the 2nd round given Rodgers inexperience? Worst case, he’s a backup for a few years. Best case, he outplays Rodgers and ends up starting in a year or two.

2.57: Chad Henne, QB, Miami Dolphins (via San Diego)

How about that? It looks like Jake Long may be blocking for Chad Henne for a few more years. Another smart pick. He could easily outplay Beck and McCown to win the job; at the very lesaet he’s a big armed, young backup for a good price.

2.58: Dexter Jackson, WR/KR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (via Jacksonville)

This was a reach pick. While Jackson is another potentially dangerous return man; he needs a lot of maturing as a route runner before he can reasonably play WR on a regular basis. Blistering speed (4.33) though and dangerous in the open field.

2.59: Mike Pollak, OG/C, Indianapolis Colts

A classic Colts pick. Their only 1st day pick and it’s a fundamentally sound center that they project as a starting offensive guard for now and possibly a replacement for Jeff Saturday later. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.60: Patrick Lee, DB, Green Bay Packers

A hard worker, Lee may someday start at corner but not for a few seasons. In the meantime, he can be a force on special teams and perhaps play nickel back particularly in run support situations. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.61: Martellus Bennett, TE, Dallas Cowboys

I like this pick more than most. For my money, Bennett was the top TE in this draft. He’s huge, is a good blocker who can become great, and should be a key red zone target given his height and willingness to go up for the ball. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.62: Terrence Wheatley, CB, New England Patriots

The Pats always seem to find value and this was no exception. Wheatley is a legitimate shutdown cover corner who, were it not for myriad injuries in college, would’ve been in the hunt for a top 15 selection. Either way, he’ll help the Pats on defense and special teams.

2.63: Terrell Thomas, CB, New York Giants

Thomas is the 217th USC Trojan to be drafted in the first two rounds (not really, just feels that way). If the Giants view him as a corner, I don’t like this pick. But if they’re going to try to convert him to safety; where his deficiencies can be obfuscated somewhat, the choice makes more sense.

The 49ers wanted to beef up the middle and they found the best 3-4 tackle prospect on the board in UNC’s Kentwan Balmer. Balmer is 308 pounds and a space eater; exactly the kind of player the 49ers want to have in their DT rotation. He failed to make a major impact in his early college years, but came on strong in 2007. His status as a potential “one year wonder” is what led to his fall toward the late 1st round; but he has significant potential.

Fantasy Impact: The 49ers defense was terrible last year, any quality defender can’t hurt.

Arizona Cardinals

LB Karlos Dansby

The Cardinals have two free agent linebackers that are among the most compelling options in free agency: Karlos Dansby and Calvin Pace. While Pace is talented and someone the Cardinals would like to have back, it’s Dansby that’s almost assuredly going to be tagged because he’s emerging as one of the preeminent defensive playmakers in the NFC.

     
St. Louis Rams

The Rams have a handful of free agents but none that warrant either the franchise or transition tag designation.

San Francisco 49ers

GM Scott McCloughan has gone on record saying the team has no intentions of using the franchise tag on any of its key free agents. The team has a few key free agents it would do well to retain (e.g., Isaac Sopaoga and Larry Allen) but neither are worth the kind of money a franchise designation would incur.

Seattle Seahawks

Option 1: PK Josh Brown

The Seahawks don’t want to lose their star place kicker and, as a result, may tag him again. Recall that Browns was the team’s franchise player last season, but the team was unable to come to terms on a multi-year deal. Given the modest differential between the top paid kickers and the middle-of-the-road alternatives, the Seahawks would be foolish to let Brown enter free agency; either they will sign him long-term over the next week or he’ll get tagged because…

Option 2: CB Marcus Trufant

The ‘hawks don’t want to be in the position of having to let Marcus Trufant hit the open market. Trufant is one of the best young corners in the league and, were he to hit free agency, could potentially garner the kind of monster offer Nate Clements received from San Francisco last season. Our bet is that Seattle comes to terms with Brown on a deal in the next few days, allowing them to tag Trufant.

You are welcome to consider the following as analysis or entertainment, as you see fit.

WEEK 16 of the 2O06 SEASON
Seven kickers score in double digits in week 16 last year:
10 Matt Bryant in TB 22-7 victory at Cle
11 David Akers in Phi 23-7 victory at Dal
12 Rob Bironas in Ten 30-29 victory at Buf
12 John Carney in NO 30-7 victory at NYG
14 Neil Rackers in Ari 26-20 victory at SF
14 Robbie Gould in Chi 26-20 victory at Det
17 Rian Lindell in Buf 29-20 loss against Ten

6 of 7 of those games featured teams that ended up with similar records (Chi-Det being the exception)
6 of 7 of those kickers played for the visiting team (Lindell being the exception)
6 of 7 of those kickers played for the team that won (Lindell being the exception)

WEEK 16 of the 2007 SEASON
Who are the visiting kickers this week in matchups of teams with similar records?
Lawrence Tynes: 9-5 NYG at 7-7 Buf
David Akers: 6-8 Phi at 7-7 NO
John Carney: 4-10 KC at 6-8 Det
Shaun Suisham: 7-7 Was at 8-6 Min

Two weeks ago we discussed the necessity of QB stability for NFL success. At the time, there were 4 teams (Arizona, Carolina, Miami and Minnesota) who started THREE QBs this season. Here is a refresher:

Team	QB1	QB2	QB3
Arizona	Matt Leinart	Kurt Warner	Tim Rattay
Carolina	Jake Delhomme	David Carr	Vinny Testaverde
Miami	Trent Green	Cleo Lemon	John Beck
Minnesota	Tarvaris Jackson	Brooks Bollinger	Kelly Holcomb

It’s no surprise that none of these teams have a winning record. A few other points to consider:

• 53 QBs have started at least one game this year
• 17 teams have used at least 2 starters
• After this weekend (Donovan McNabb = Doubtful), 18 teams (56% of the NFL) will have started 2+ QBs

A few interesting things have happened since I wrote this:

1. Minnesota has won 4 games in a row to raise their record to 7-6
2. Atlanta joined the ranks of 3 QB teams when Chris Redman got the start in Week 14
3. St. Louis joined the ranks as Brock Berlin started Week 14
4. San Francisco will join the ranks this week when Shaun Hill gets the start
5. Chicago will join the ranks as Kyle Orton has been named the Week 15 starter

As if that weren’t enough, several other teams could conceivably join the 3-QB club by season’s end:

• Baltimore — Troy Smith saw time this week, might Baltimore give him a start or two?
• Oakland — There really is no reason why the team shouldn’t give 1st overall pick JaMarcus Russell a start
• Philadelphia — McNabb is back under center, but might Kevin Kolb get a look in Week 17? Probably not

It’s pretty stunning to think that an entire generation of young football fans have grown up without thinking of the 49ers as a championship caliber franchise. The team that has not one, but two Hall of Fame QBs through the 80s and much of the 90s, has struggled mightily in recent years; and now finds itself 2-8, having lost 8 straight games.

Today, 49ers owner Denise DeBartolo York promised sweeping changes in order to right the ship:

“I would consider anything,” DeBartolo York told the Chronicle. “I think that we have to get the minds together, the powers that be. I don’t think I can start to delve into the entire football operation right now. I would need the whole panel of people there.”

DeBartolo York told the Chronicle that the panel would include her husband and co-owner, John York; son Jed York; vice president of player personnel Scot McCloughan; vice president of football operations Lal Heneghan; and Nolan. DeBartolo York told the Chronicle that the head coach would no longer be the final authority on draft or player personnel decisions.

The last bolded statement is the doozy. A lot of people scratched their heads when the 49ers essentially gave control of the franchise to Mike Nolan; a guy that had never been an NFL head coach before. Now, it seems, the 49ers are FINALLY going to bring in a tried and true NFL mind to run football operations.

What that means is no one’s jobs are safe beyond 2008 at the latest. It would be stunning to think that a veteran GM would come aboard without assurances that he could hire his own head coach after a year of evaluating Nolan (if not immediately). And by the same token, QB Alex Smith will be in a make-or-break situation next season as the team will be in the financial position to consider a new direction.

Just how bad has it gotten in San Francisco? Consider:

• The offense is on pace for just 3,915 yards of total offense (32nd in the league); this would actually be the 2nd worst offensive performance of the decade
• The ONLY team to have a worse offensive season was…the 2005 49ers which put up a meager 3,879 yards
• The passing attack is averaging an anemic 4.9 yards per attempt; by far the worst of the decade
• The team is on pace for only 8 TD passes, which would only be “topped” by the 2006 Oakland Raiders (7 TD passes)
• The team is on pace for only 16 offensive TDs (passing and rushing), which again is only better than the 2006 Raiders over the last decade

Randy Moss is, needless to say, having a renaissance year where he once again looks like the league’s best receiver (by a wide margin0 after several disappointing years in Minnesota and Oakland. One of our message board contributors asked the question: What is the gap between Jerry Rice and Randy Moss?

dgreen: Jerry Rice IS the greatest WR of all time. This thread isn’t to claim otherwise.

However, for a long time, Rice has been the G.O.A.T. by a pretty large margin over the next guy. “The next guy” tends to be Don Hutson in many minds, but there is at least some argument about who is “the next guy”. For awhile, Randy Moss was viewed as “the next guy” and a legitimate contender to Rice down the road. Then he went to Oakland and people started to even question his HOF worthiness. Now in NE, he is looking like what we always knew he could be: a contender to Rice.

So, what’s the gap here? How much can Moss close that gap? How good of a chance does Moss have to make a move on Rice for GOAT?

Regardless of what you personally think about Randy Moss, his value to the team, his work ethic, etc…it’s impossible to deny that STATISTICALLY he’s among the very best to ever play the position. But how do you measure Moss’ career against the someone that many feel is the best PLAYER (regardless of position) in the modern era?

I think when you consider career accomplishments, importance to the game, work ethic, attitude, longevity, there are MILES between Randy Moss and Jerry Rice. But to dgreen’s question, how far away is Moss statistically?

Randy is currently playing in his 10th season. Through nine games he’s tallied:

• 56 receptions
• 924 yards
• 12 TDs

If we’re to assume Moss maintains his current pace to finish out the year, he would amass:

• 100 receptions
• 1,643 yards
• 21 TDs

Now let’s compare where Moss’ projected career numbers stand against Jerry Rice’s numbers through 10 seasons:

Career Receiving Stats (through 10 seasons)

As you can see, Rice was quite a bit ahead of Moss through 10 seasons. When you consider the unprecedented longevity that Rice enjoyed, too, it seems pretty safe to say that Randy Moss is really no threat to Jerry Rice’s statistical accomplishments.

When you’re rounding out your fantasy rosters, it’s a common practice to overrate the top receivers on bad passing teams. Logically, one assumes that SOMEONE has to be the top target and, as long as they’re getting thrown to, they have fantasy value. Well, year in year out there are a handful of teams that disprove that theory.

This year, five teams have a leading receiver that is on pace to finish with less than 60 receptions:

Looking at that list, you see a number of receivers that were touted as “sleepers” this year; yet play for teams with challenged passing games. Let this be a lesson to you; not every team has viable fantasy options at every position.

It’s only Wednesday and today’s optimism can be tomorrow’s disappointment…BUT, for those fantasy owners who feel like they’ve been fielding a patchwork team the last few weeks due to devastating injuries and killer bye weeks, it APPEARS that good news may be upon us.

While this is all preliminary (keep checking Footballguys.com for real-time updates as we receive them)…the following key players are hopeful of returning to the field in Week 7:

• QB Marc Bulger (STL) is hopeful that he’ll be able to start this week after missing time with his rib injury. He was on the active roster last week and is feeling much better. He’s still not 100% but he should be good enough to play.
• RB Joseph Addai (IND) is expected to practice this week and play in week seven against the Jaguars.
• WR Anquan Boldin (ARI) is expected to return to the starting line up this week after missing time with a hip injury. He ran some before the game Sunday and felt like his old self. “It’s the first time I’ve been able to explode, run routes and things like that, he said. “It isn’t sore today (Monday) so we’ll test it again Wednesday and see how it is.”
• WR Javon Walker (DEN) returned to practice this week. He missed the past two games with fluid in his surgically repaired right knee. Walker said he may take it easy in practice this week, but there is no way he is going to miss Sunday’s game. “It’s crunch time,” he said. “I got to be out there.” Walker said the knee won’t be completely healthy until after the season when he can rest it. “I have to play through it,” he said. “I’m ready to go.”
• WR Andre Johnson (HOU) could return this week when they host Tennessee. A decision won’t be known until at least Wednesday. “He’s progressing well; (we’re) very, very hopeful that he’s ready to go this week,” HC Gary Kubiak said. “We’ll run him tomorrow. We liked the progress we saw last week, so we’ve just kind of got our fingers crossed that he’s ready to go this week.”
• WR Marvin Harrison (IND) is expected to practice this week and play in week seven against the Jaguars.
  
• TE Vernon Davis (SF) is expected to return to practice this week and has a chance to play this weekend. When coach Mike Nolan was asked about Davis’ status for this week, he said, “It’s questionable. We’ll see how they practice on Wednesday. I’m hopeful.”

This has been a crazy year for quarterbacks. Many have been injured, and out for the year while some have been just plain inefficient.

Let’s look at some of the journeymen passers that either started in Week Five or might start in Week Six:

• Trent Dilfer (SF) – The consummate game manager and fantasy quarterback least likely for success. If he enters your fantasy lineup, you are probably doomed for a loss.
• Gus Frerotte (STL) — The veteran from Tulsa has played with several teams and knows coach Linehan’s system. But, we would be fooling ourselves if we thought he was a healthy Bulger’s peer. He is a desperate start in week six.
• David Carr or Vinny Testaverde (CAR) — Pick your poison. Which is worse? I see a toss up. Maybe Vinny would be able to find Steve Smith. I know he is not a tall fellow, but Smith should be easy to find if Kerry Colbert and Drew Carter are the other options.
• Kurt Warner (ARI) – He has a great matchup this week. But, how many games do we really expect before Warner is injured? Enter Tim Rattay. You know, the guy who could not beat out Kerry Collins. Gulp. Hang on to your hats, Boldin and Fitzgerald owners, it might be a bumpy ride.
• Kelly Holcomb (MIN) — We all know Holcomb as the guy who could not beat out Craig Nall or A.J. Feeley. With the receivers the Vikings have, would you really want to start Holcomb? Me either.

This list does not even include the likes of Daunte Culpepper, Cleo Lemon, and Byron Leftwich. This has been a rough year for passers getting hurt. Look for some additional passers to be benched from here on out for the young guns. This is the time in the fantasy season where it gets ugly, real ugly, for fantasy quarterbacks during the bye week crunch. So, good luck to those of you starting one of the above quarterbacks … you just might need it. If these guys were rock bands, they would not even make the amusement park circuit.

Continuing on…I thought it might be helpful to give you a few quick hitting comments on which players are rising and falling in MY (i.e., different than Dodds’) projections this preseason.

Up next, the NFC West:

RISING

• Matt Hasselbeck, SEA (Rank: QB11) — Shoulder looks healthy
• Shaun Alexander, SEA (Rank: RB12) — Still not in my top 10, but looks healthy
• Brian Leonard, STL (Rank: RB51) — Catching passes, Scoring TDs = compelling handcuff
• D.J. Hackett, SEA (Rank: WR37) — I wasn’t quickly sold on him, but have slowly become a believer
• Taylor Jacobs, SF (Rank: WR89) — Named WR3 in San Fran
• Marcus Pollard, SEA (Rank: TE17) — Fountain of youth + Holmgren’s praise = decent late round TE2

FALLING

• Torry Holt, STL (Rank: WR7) — Was ranked WR2 but slow recovery of knee = concern
• Nate Burleson, SEA (Rank: WR71) — Probably last man on Earth who believed he could start this year
• Ashley Lelie, SF (Rank: WR108) — Taylor Jacobs now WR3 in SF, Lelie could be waived
• Leonard Pope, ARI (Rank: TE40) — Having trouble holding off Troy Bienemann, ’nuff said

*** Note: As you might gather, my expectations for the Cardinals offense have changed very little this preseason, whereas my expectations for the Seahawks have improved incrementally due largely evidence that Hass and Alexander are healthy

Let’s hear your thoughts…where do you agree? Where do you disagree and why?

Taking a look at the the latest ADP data, it seems that fantasy owners are paying too much attention to where the rookie WR crop were drafted in April versus how their situations have evolved over the four months since. Let’s look at the top-12 rookie receivers, according to the most recent ADP data:

• Calvin Johnson — WR20 (54th overall)
• Anthony Gonzalez — WR53 (160th overall)
• Dwayne Jarrett — WR56 (164th overall)
• Dwayne Bowe — WR59 (175th overall)
• Ted Ginn Jr. — WR62 (187th overall)
• Robert Meachem — WR63 (195th overall)
• Craig Davis — WR77 (246th overall)
• Jason Hill — WR82 (256th overall)
• James Jones — WR83 (257th overall)
• Steve Smith — WR87 (269th overall)
• Sidney Rice — WR88 (270th overall)
• Jacoby Jones — WR102 (311th overall)

In my opinion, some of these draft positions are WAY out of whack with the reality of their 2007 opportunities.

OVERVALUED ROOKIES

• Anthony Gonzalez, IND — He’s a rookie, he’s not guaranteed the #3 spot (Aaron Moorehead has been as good in camp, and has the experience factor), and save for Manning’s 49-TD season, the WR3 slot in Indy hasn’t warranted a pick that high based on year-end numbers
• Dwayne Jarrett, CAR – Yes, he may be the future WR2 in Carolina, but he’s not the present. Both Drew Carter and Keary Colbert have been running ahead of him all preseason
• Jason Hill, SF — It’s hard to call someone being drafted 256th overall overvalued. But Hill is going ahead of at least 10 wideouts I think will handily outperform him this year. Hill hasn’t gotten any run in San Francisco this preseason, and looks to start the season no better than WR4 (at best)
• Robert Meachem, NO — Meachem may have a bright future in New Orleans, but as our Sigmund Bloom said this week on The Audible, this is looking more and more like a “red shirt” year for the young speedster out of Tennessee. Meachem was a camp holdout and then showed up out of shape. He hasn’t sniffed the first team during the preseason and is running solidly behind Marques Colston, Devery Henderson, Terrence Copper, David Patten and possibly, Lance Moore.
• Ted Ginn Jr., MIA — Ginn is an athlete, but he’s not a polished receiver yet. Unless your team gets points for special teams contributions, Ginn is going far too high given the options still available.

FAIRLY VALUED ROOKIES

• Calvin Johnson, DET – Calvin Johnson is currently ranked 23rd in our consensus WR rankings, so his ADP of WR20 isn’t too out of whack. While it’s never a sure bet to bet on a rookie to deliver WR20 numbers, Johnson is a once-in-a-generation talent and plays for one of the league’s most pass happy offensive coordinators.
• Dwayne Bowe, KC – The Chiefs aren’t going to throw a lot based on Herm Edwards’ coaching history; and Brodie Croyle hasn’t instilled much confidence. However, the Chiefs are more desperate for a young playmaker at wideout than any team in the NFL. Eddie Kennison is solid but he’s getting old and is really better suited as a WR2. And Samie Parker (Mr. Inconsistent) is all that stands in Bowe’s way.
• Sidney Rice, MIN — Rice is an enigma. He’s super skinny and playing in arguably the most jumbled WR corps in the league, but he could easily emerge as a starter sometime this season. The issue, however, is that he could just as easily end up the 4th or 5th wideout. Add to that the uncertainty of QB Tarvaris Jackson and Rice is probably best left as a late round flier or waiver wire pickup

UNDERVALUED ROOKIES

• Craig Davis, SD — Eric Parker is out for a good chunk of the season and rookie Davis has been running with the starting unit opposite Vincent Jackson. The Chargers have a Pro Bowl QB in Philip Rivers and while the WR2 won’t get a ton of targets because of Tomlinson and Gates also getting looks, any NFL starting wideout deserves a higher ADP than Davis’
• James Jones, GB – As we discussed yesterday, Jones has been a beast this preseason and should be the Packers WR3 at worst. But with the injury to Donald Driver, Jones could start the season opposite Greg Jennings. With the Packers throwing the ball 500+ times, and the team’s willingness to start rookies (Jennings started last year), Jones should be drafted in 12-team leagues but his ADP suggests he’s not been
• Steve Smith, NYG — Smith is going to start the season as the Giants WR3, but given Burress’ and Toomer’s injury situations, and Toomer’s advancing age, he stands a good chance of becoming a starter at some point this year. Smith has been one of the most impressive, polished rookie receivers throughout training camp and the preseason. He should have a better season than his USC counterpart
• Jacoby Jones, HOU — Jones is running neck and neck with Kevin Walter for the Texans WR2 position. The Texans have no reason to sit a talent like Jones if he’s as good, if not better than Walter at this juncture. While the Texans offense has its question marks, a 16-game NFL starter (potentially) deserves to be drafted in deeper leagues, yet Jacoby is going outside the top 300!

While it can be dangerous to read too much into the first “official” depth charts and the fluff pieces beat writers produce early in the preseason, there are always important nuggets to be gleaned from watching preseason games and carefully considering the comments of coaches and coordinators. Here’s a look at some of the changes in the IDP landscape thus far.Winners

• ILB Adalius Thomas — As was reported during OTAs, Thomas lined up all over the field last week but primarily at LILB. That’s often been the better tackling position in the Belichick scheme in recent years. Thomas looked a little uncomfortable inside at times but the combination of increased run support opportunity and pass rush skill may prove a lethal combination in the boxscore.
• DE Robert Geathers — After the team hinted that he would remain in a situational pass rushing role, Geathers played every down with the first team defense. Geathers has flashed decent run supporting skill in prior seasons and has 45 solo, 10 sack potential in the full time role.
• SS Deon Grant — Some felt Grant was in for a big bump in stats after leaving the limiting Jacksonville scheme for the greener Seahawk defense but the news that Grant would take on a more traditional strong safety role should make him an even safer bet for 2007.
• SS Chris Harris — Harris became a must roster after the Panthers acquired him from the Bears as camp began. Harris may not be a special NFL talent, but his IDP value goes from non-existent as a backup with Chicago to the starting SS in Carolina.
• WLB Landon Johnson — Another Bengal who looks to have a bigger role than initially expected, Johnson started with the first team last week. An underrated all-around backer, Johnson played well enough the first week to keep Ed Hartwell a backup MLB/WLB.
• OLB Antwan Peek — Peek isn’t a stud NFL talent, but Willie McGinest’s back surgery and Kamerion Wimbley’s beastly performance in the first preseason game could push Peek into every week starter status in big play leagues this year.

Losers

• OLB Chike Okeafor — Okeafor is likely out for the season after suffering a torn bicep muscle last week. Owners looking to use Okeafor as a DL and get OLB stat lines are going to have to find another option to exploit the “Bryan Thomas” classification loophole.
• MLB Ahmad Brooks — Caleb Miller replaced Brooks in nickel situations in the first preseason game despite earlier indications that Brooks would be an every down linebacker. There’s still time for Brooks to prove himself in coverage and the team has praised his effort in practice, but this isn’t a good start to 2007.
• FS Will Demps — The Giants began camp with Gibril Wilson at FS, James Butler at SS and Demps, who was one of the better producing free safeties in IDP leagues last year, on the second team. Demps is apparently rotating in with the first team again this week but the writing may be on the wall for him.
• MLB Brian Simmons — A nagging chronic knee problem and the surprisingly consistent play of last year’s starter Mark Simoneau has Simmons stuck on the second team. If Simmons can’t get on the field and impress soon, he’ll have a hard time securing any IDP value in 2007 without an injury to another starter.
• WLB Keith Ellison — While it may not be set in stone yet, Ellison sat in nickel situations during the first preseason game. Though it appears Ellison will shift with the offensive formation to remain a WLB on all base defensive snaps, sitting in the nickel will keep him from becoming more than a LB3.
• OLB Bryan Thomas — The NFL.com gamebook and Jets official depth chart has finally be updated to reflect Thomas’ correct position as an OLB. Those holding out hope that Thomas will remain a DL in your IDP league have hopefully already made other arrangements.

Other ongoing storylines:

Patrick Willis is still behind Derek Smith at RILB in the 49er base defense. Roman Harper looks fully recovered and may play linebacker in the nickel defense for New Orleans. Demorrio Williams has been cleared for contact nearly a month before he was expected to return and is running with the first team in Atlanta. Gibril Wilson has been tabbed for the big play FS role that Brian Dawkins played in Philadelphia. Eagle LB Takeo Spikes is turning heads in camp and may have recovered his sideline-to-sideline range.

Keep an eye on our free IDP centered message board at FootballGuys for breaking news and quick analysis on the defensive side of the ball. And watch for our new weekly IDP podcast on The Audible which will debut next week.

We’re at that point in the football preseason where things reach a fevered pitch. Although we’ve been eating, drinking and sleeping football for months now (as I’m sure many of you have), it’s the month of August when millions of Americans reawaken to the NFL and all of its trappings.

With training camps well underway, we’re all ravenous for any and all news developments that might help us get an edge in our upcoming drafts.

This week, as many teams wind down the formal part of their training camps, they are also putting out the first “official” depth charts of the year. Two such depth charts have caused a bit of stir for a group of young underachieving wide receivers.

The San Francisco 49ers Depth Chart

Click here for the official SF 49ers depth chart

Ashley Lelie listed as a third stringer: The starting wide receivers, Darrell Jackson and Arnaz Battle, are not surprising. But the fact Bryan Gilmore and Taylor Jacobs are listed ahead of Ashley Lelie certainly is causing a bit of stir. The 49ers coaches will downplay the significance of this first depth chart, but you can be sure it’s meant to send a signal to the enigmatic Lelie. What does this mean? In no uncertain terms it means he needs to elevate his play or potentially face the unemployment line.

Fantasy Implications?: MINIMAL. Ashley Lelie is being drafted 229th overall and is the 71st WR off the board, on average. Our own Chris Smith had this to say in the Ashley Lelie Player Spotlight:

I believe it is pretty clear that Arnaz Battle has left Ashley Lelie far behind and Battle will line up as the starting receiver. He is a decent receiver but it is his exceptional blocking ability that the team is excited about and he’ll have a strong impact on the 49ers rushing attack. At this point of the preseason it appears that Lelie may even have a difficult time surpassing Bryan Gilmore, Taylor Jacobs and rookie Jason Hill in the pecking order and I wouldn’t be surprised at all if Lelie becomes a non-factor this season. Neither player will have exceptional fantasy value but Battle will get the playing time. 

The Jacksonville Jaguars Depth Chart

Click here for the official Jacksonville Jaguars depth chart

Matt Jones and Reggie Williams get a dose of reality:  Matt Jones (21st overall pick, 2005) and Reggie Williams (9th overall pick, 2004) are big, athletic guys that were supposed to provide the Jaguars with a daunting pair of weapons who physically couldn’t be defended by many of the league’s smaller d-backs. Unfortunately, their progression has been slower than many Jags fans have hoped, and it appears HC Jack Del Rio agrees. This week’s first depth chart lists Jones as a 2nd stringer and Williams surprisingly as a 3rd stringer. 

Fantasy Implications?: MODERATE TO SIGNIFICANT. A lot of fantasy owners have been keen on drafting both Jones and Williams as potential value plays; and that may still be the case but clearly this move is meant to signal just how disappointed the Jags coaches are in the tandem. When we interviewed Reggie on The Audible, he seemed excited about the new offense (new OC, Dirk Koetter is promising a more vertical passing game) but it now appears Williams’ enthusiasm has not matched with his on-field performance two weeks into camp.

Williams is currently being drafted WR51 (149th) overall and our projections call for 48 receptions, 610 yards and 4 TDs. Jones, the converted QB, is being drafted WR39 (113th) overall and our projections call for 50 receptions, 665 yards and 4 TDs. Clearly these guys need to be starters if they’re going to come close to justifying current ADP, much less besting it.

The good news is that Lelie, Jones and Williams (as well as any other players currently in the dog house) have time to reestablish themselves. These depth chart moves are as much about motivating these players as anything, and now it’s up to them to translate their natural physical gifts into plays that matter on the gridiron. We continuously tweak our projections and rankings, and will be mindful of these situations so you won’t be caught empty-handed on draft day. Stay tuned.

Following up on Will Grant’s post about what to look for during the preseason games, I thought I’d post a link to the NFL’s pre-season television schedule. This week we have five games on tap:

• Thu., Aug. 9 Indianapolis at Dallas FOX (8 p.m.)
• Fri., Aug. 10 Buffalo at New Orleans CBS (8 p.m.)
• Sat, Aug. 11 Washington at Tennessee NFLN (8 p.m.)
• Sun, Aug. 12 Seattle at San Diego NBC (8 p.m.)
• Mon, Aug. 13 Denver at San Francisco ESPN (8 p.m.)

Below are a few story lines of interest to fantasy owners regarding the above games.

On Thursday, we’ll get a glimpse of Tony Romo’s progress entering his second year as the starter for Dallas (likely we’ll see very little of Peyton Manning, Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne). Friday will give us an idea how resilient the Saints’ first team is this year after their embarrassment at the hands of “Blitzburgh” during the Hall of Fame game. Saturday, young guns Jason Campbell and Vince Young will be under the microscope of fantasy owners everywhere - who has made strides in his development so far? Will Young throw another punch with his throwing hand? Stay tuned, sports fans! Deion Branch has been enjoying his first full training camp with the Seahawks - can he and Matt Hasselbeck form a strong #1 tandem (replacing the Hasselbeck/Darrell Jackson connection), starting on Sunday? Is D.J. Hackett actually getting pushed by Nate Burleson, or was that a false camp rumor? On Monday, we’ll see if Jay Cutler is simpatico with Javon Walker and Daniel Graham, and who will line up as the team’s #2 WR. Alex Smith enters the game without his top RB, Frank Gore - how will the 49ers adjust their attack to compensate for the absent (broken hand) Gore?

Don’t you just love football season? Get ready to rummmbllle fantasy owners everywhere - the game is BACK ON!

Today fantasy owners and 49ers fans let out a collective gasp on the news that Frank Gore suffered a broken hand and will miss at least part of the preseason. Given Gore’s injury history, and the uncertainty of not seeing him practice over the next few weeks, a lot of fantasy owners may balk at selecting him in the top-5, where he’s currently ranked.

The savvy fantasy owner will recognize the silver lining to this injury. Of all the injuries that could befall an NFL runner, a broken bone at the top of his hand has to rank among the least concerning. Based on what we know currently, it seems to be limited to a broken bone, no ligament or tendon damage. If that’s indeed the case, there’s no reason his hand shouldn’t heal in a few weeks, nor should this be a chronic condition.

At the end of the day, this could serve two purposes:

1) Prevent a more significant injury — A lot of pundits contend the NFL preseason is too hard and too long. Gore, and his reconstructed knees now won’t be at risk during the next few week

2) Possibly lower his ADP — Gore is currently being drafted 4th overall according to our ADP data. Once this news ripples through the ‘net, you can bet that Gore will drop a few spots. Considering he should be A-OK for the start of the season, this would be fantastic news for anyone drafting in the second half of the 1st round.

We’ll continue to monitor this situation, but if the news remains as we currently understand it (broken bone only), Gore now has the chance to offer 1st round value whereas before, as a top-3 or top-4 pick, he would’ve merely represented fair value.

Today we heard the bad news that Bill Walsh lost his long battle with leukemia and has passed away. Take a look at his years with the 49ers and you’ll see that he was, above all, a winner. His teams were 92 - 59 - 1 (0.609 win %) in the regular season, and more importantly, 10-4 during post-season play. His teams won 3 Super Bowls (1981, 1984, 1988). My first memory of watching a pro football game is the 49ers 1981 victory over Cincinnati 26-21 - it was the last game I ever watched with my grandfather.

Walsh drafted and developed QB Joe Montana (a Hall of Fame player); drafted and developed WR Jerry Rice (a Hall of Fame player); he traded for and developed Steve Young (a Hall of Fame Player) as Montana’s eventual successor. He was a supremely astute judge of football talent, and knew how to bring out the very best in his players.

Of course, Walsh is also legendary for introducing the West Coast offense to the pros, and for the remarkable tree of coaches who either played for him or coached for him (and the legion of coaches now in the league that were disciples of his immediate heirs) - Mike Holmgren, George Seifert, Sam Wyche and many others were coaches for Walsh before they became head coaches themselves. Brian Billick was also heavily influenced by Walsh (they wrote Finding the Winning Edge together).

Bill Walsh was one of the greatest football coaches ever, in any era, and will be sorely missed by the game. Goodbye Mr. Walsh, we won’t forget you.

Every team has their share of coulda, shoulda, wouldas. Cleveland fans have The Fumble and The Drive. Raider fans are left to wonder about the Immaculate Reception, the Tuck Rule and Bo. Buffalo fans, well, let’s not dredge up those memories again. Bengal fans have their own painful memories. Pete Johnson stuffed on 4th and 1 or Lewis Billups dropping an interception in the end zone at crucial points in separate Super Bowls, Carson Palmer lying in a heap in a 2005 playoff game and any number of failed top draft picks. The passing of offensive innovator and former Bengal assistant coach Bill Walsh may have reminded long time Cincinnati homers of possibly the biggest what could’ve been in franchise history.

Everyone knows the Bill Walsh story. Primary architect of one variation of the West Coast offense, three time Super Bowl winning head coach of the San Francisco 49ers and widely considered among the most innovative coaches of all time. Casual football fans may not know the rest of the story. Walsh got his start in the NFL as an assistant with the Oakland Raiders but made his name as an assistant offensive coach in Cincinnati after joining Paul Brown’s staff in 1968. Walsh brought the vertical passing game of another of the game’s offensive architects, Sid Gillman, to Cincinnati and soon had the perfect quarterback to run his playbook, Greg Cook.

Who the heck is Greg Cook you ask? As a rookie in 1969 in Walsh’s vertical offense, Cook rode his freakish combination of arm strength, touch and deep accuracy to an amazing 17.5 yards per completed pass. Put in perspective, Daunte Culpepper averaged 12.4 yards per completion in his historic 2004, Peyton Manning 13.6. Some of the best deep receiving threats in the league today fall short of that number. Unfortunately, Cook, the 1969 AFL Rookie of the Year blew out his shoulder in third game of the year. Although he finished the year, Cook was never the same and attempted only three more passes after the 1969 season — four seasons later.

In later interviews, Walsh still lamented what could have been with Cook. In fact, Walsh himself wonders if he would’ve created the West Coast offense if Cook had stayed healthy and fulfilled his promise. Paul Zimmerman asked Walsh how things would’ve been different if he had Cook for more than one season. Things would have been “completely different,” Walsh said. “It would’ve started off the deep strike and everything else would’ve played off that. It would’ve set records that would have never been broken.” This from the man who coached Joe Montana and Jerry Rice.

Unfortunately for Bengal fans, that’s only half the story.

Although Walsh’s version of the vertical offense could have been sick with Greg Cook and Isaac Curtis, the innovator found a way to modify his passing attack with short, precise passes and mulitple wide receiving options putting pressure on the defense with timing routes — what is now known as the West Coast offense but could rightly be called the Cincinnati offense. Walsh again found a near perfect fit for his new playbook in Ken Anderson, a smart, calm, precise passer. Walsh’s offense was clicking for the Bengals in the early 1970s. By the end of the 1975 season, Anderson was running the offense to perfection with a 60% plus completion rate and 8 yards plus per passing attempt. Curtis had been to three consecutive Pro Bowls and was a star. The Bengals had made the playoffs in 1973 and 1975. The future was ridiculously bright.

Then Bengal head coach and patriarch Paul Brown retired and handed the reins to long time offensive assistant Tiger Johnson instead of Walsh, who resigned in disappointment. The rest, as they say, is history. Walsh spent a season in San Diego as an assistant and coached Stanford for two seasons before taking the head coaching job in San Francisco where his offense flourished under Joe Montana. Johnson’s Bengal teams steadily declined and he was fired in 1978. Cincinnati made two Super Bowls in the 1980s, only to lose both to the franchise Bill Walsh built.

Rest in peace, Bill Walsh. This Bengal fan still longs for what could’ve been.

Continuing in the series, here is a look at the pass distributions for the NFC West teams. For a quick orientation, see this post.

          ==== WR =====|=== TE ===|=== RB ==
TM   YR     1  2  3  T |  1  2  T |  1  2  T
============================================
sfo 2004 | 19 16 12 55 | 24  3 28 |  6  4 17
    2005 | 33 17 13 69 |  3  2  7 | 11  6 24
    2006 | 25 24  5 56 | 10  9 19 | 17  5 24

          ==== WR =====|=== TE ===|=== RB ==
TM   YR     1  2  3  T |  1  2  T |  1  2  T
============================================
ari 2004 | 25 20 17 69 | 13  2 15 |  6  5 16
    2005 | 30 30  9 77 |  6  3  9 |  5  5 14
    2006 | 31 24 19 80 |  4  3  8 |  6  4 12

          ==== WR =====|=== TE ===|=== RB ==
TM   YR     1  2  3  T |  1  2  T |  1  2  T
============================================
sea 2004 | 32 13 13 72 |  9  6 19 |  5  3  9
    2005 | 21 19 13 74 | 15  2 18 |  5  2  8
    2006 | 28 22 18 82 |  7  2 10 |  5  1  8

          ==== WR =====|=== TE ===|=== RB ==
TM   YR     1  2  3  T |  1  2  T |  1  2  T
============================================
stl 2004 | 30 28 11 82 |  4  1  5 |  7  4 13
    2005 | 31 18 12 79 |  3  2  6 |  7  7 15
    2006 | 27 25 11 67 |  5  2  8 | 19  4 25