Bernard Berrian: Pillages the Vikings for a monster contract
Before the start of free agency, Bernard Berrian indicated he wanted a contract similar to the 6-year, $36mm deal Deion Branch received from the Seattle Seahawks a season ago. While few questioned whether Berrian was a coveted free agent (he’s the #2 WR on most boards, behind Randy Moss), a lot of folks questioned whether Berrian would and should be paid as one of the elite at the position.
As I’ve been saying for weeks now, the market dictates the price as much as the talent does. We’ve seen free agents land monster deals at every position, and it’s more about the rising salary cap (estimated $116mm) and team’s projected cap room (more than at any point in league history) than it is about saying these free agents are the best in the league.
Regardless of whether you think Berrian is worth top-10 money, he stood a very good chance at landing that kind of contract this offseason.
And so he has…The Minnesota Vikings have signed Berrian to a 6-year, $42mm deal with $16mm guaranteed. That may seem like big coin for a guy that’s never had 1,000-yard season, but the Vikings are hoping Berrian is on the cusp of greatness and will leverage his deep speed to take the pressure off QB Tarvaris Jackson as well as the two-headed running attack of Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor.
How much will Berrian help the Vikings passing attack?
Without looking up the stats, I bet a lot of you would assume the Bears passing attack was almost as bad as the Vikings last year, right? Now go look at the stats:
- Passing Yards — 3,362 Bears vs. 2,745 Vikings
- Attempts — 569 Bears vs. 432 Vikings
- Completions — 327 Bears vs. 249 Vikings
- Completion Percentage — 57.5% Bears vs. 57.6% Vikings
- Yards per Attempt — 5.9 Bears vs. 6.4 Vikings
- Passing TDs — 18 Bears vs. 12 Vikings
- TDs conversion percentage — 3.2% Bears vs. 2.7% Vikings
If these numbers look ugly, they are. But that’s not the key takeaway. The key takeaway is that the Vikings numbers make the Bears look like the Greatest Show on Turf. For all of the Bears ineptitude and the dissatisfaction with the three headed QB monster of Griese/Orton/Grossman, they collectively were MORE productive than what Tarvaris Jackson and his backups produced in Minnesota.
As a group, the Vikings WRs converted 56.5% of their intended targets. That’s not very good, as you might expect. But here’s the bad news, Bernard Berrian has only converted 51.2% of his career targets. Let that sink in folks. For all of Berrian’s many talents, he’s managed to barely catch half of the targets thrown to him, yet is going to a team that had WORSE quarterbacking than what he enjoyed with the Bears.
But will this signing help Berrian or his fantasy owners?
Now, we know Berrian is a speedy receiver and, to his credit, he is coming off a career season (70 catches for 948 yards and 5 TDs). But is he an all around difference maker? Even if you argue his numbers were hurt by the QB situation in Chicago, how can anyone say his situation is MORE advantageous in Minnesota?
At least in Chicago, Berrian had the advantage of seeing a lot of targets because the Bears couldn’t run the ball. The Vikings have a phenomenal rushing attack and have no intentions of throwing the ball anywhere close to the 569 times the Bears did a year ago. So even if you assume Berrian can somehow improve upon his lackluster catch percentage in a new environment, it still seems unlikely he’ll see as many targets.
- In 2007, Berrian was targeted 127 times [22% of the Bears pass attempts]
- Berrian would’ve needed to have seen 30% of the Vikings attempts last year just to match his output
- Even if you assume the Vikings will throw a bit more in 2008, they aren’t going to dramatically shift the offensive balance given how superb their rushing attack is
Could Berrian put together a 1,000+ yard season next year? Certainly, but a lot of things need to happen.
- He needs to be more consistent catching short- and intermediate passes
- The Vikings need to see DRAMATIC improvement from Tarvaris Jackson
- The Vikings need to commit to a more balanced run/pass ratio [despite having a dominant rushing attack]
I think this is one of those signings that helps the Vikings a lot more than it helps fantasy football owners. Given Berrian’s contract and the fact he’s the clear #1 in Minnesota, I expect a lot of fantasy players will covet Berrian and draft him much too early in 2008. I won’t be one of them.
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