Today the Bengals finally cut Chris Henry, after his fifth arrest since joining the team - once again, this latest incident is reputed to be related to assault and battery while under the influence of intoxicating substances of one sort or another.

Mike Frazier, Henry’s agent, continued with the same old platitudes about “helping” Henry -

“I just want to say that we’re sorry this all happened, and we will continue to try to work to help Chris,”

- but, quite honestly, there isn’t a cure for the arrogant ignorance displayed by this ex-Bengal. He has, all-too-obviously, fallen into folly due to the special-rules-for-special-athletes paradigm that certain star athletes believe apply to them (Michael Vick is another infamous example of the special-rules disease, which is in some cases terminal to NFL careers).

There is no other way to account for a person who, like Henry, repeatedly flouts the rule of law and civil authority without regard to the consequences for their multi-million dollar career. He truly is, in the words of the latest judge to preside over this most recent case involving Henry, “a one-man crime wave”.

Anyone who is willing to toss away the culmination of their life’s work for the thrill of beating up on an 18-year old is a dysfunctional loser who doesn’t deserve yet another chance in the NFL.

Fantasy owners, this is why character counts in the NFL. When you are sorting out your draft lists later on this year, remember to weight your lists to reflect who is a high-character player and who is a scumbag. When two players have roughly equal prospects for the upcoming season, the smart pick is to add the guy who isn’t a thug to your roster - it may just save you from wasting a draft pick on an idiot like Chris Henry.

While looking at some stats on Footballguys.com, there is a feature that has the matchup data for the last four weeks. This is a great tool for gauging which offenses or defenses are getting hot at the right time. One thing I noticed was that the Seahawks are the Rodney Dangerfield of the NFL pass defenses.

For the last three games (four weeks), the Seattle Seahawks pass defense has yielded the following stats per game:

• 22 of 38 for 248 yards and NO touchdown passes, along with .3 interceptions a game. For this span, the defense also is averaging a fumble recovery and 2.7 sacks per game.

On the season, the Seahawks defense is only giving up an average of a scoring reception once every two games. That is impressive. The remaining schedule includes great fantasy opportunities against the Rams, Panthers, Ravens, and Falcons. The last three listed are great matchups against average quarterbacks.

One of the great things about the NFL is the passion of the fans. We ALL think we’re, at times, smarter than the coaches and personnel executives who manager our teams. We all like to 2nd guess specific draft choices, certain plays on game day. While intellectually we may know that we’re NOT as good as the people who run our teams, the emotional drain of an NFL season deludes us into thinking otherwise.

One of the CLASSIC debates revolves around whether it’s worth spending huge $$$$ on a rookie quarterback. Judging from NFL draft history, the majority of NFL executives think it’s a worthwhile strategy. On the other hand, it seems a majority of fans would rather “find value” at the QB position and not commit so much money to an unproven signal caller who could set their team back for years if he busts.

This is a debate that’s not likely to resolve itself anytime soon. But 10 weeks into this season, it’s looking like 2007 will go down as a year when the FANS perspective gained some ground empirically.

Consider:

In the last 10 years, a quarterback was drafted 1st overall EIGHT (80%!) times:

• 1998 — Peyton Manning, IND
• 1999 — Tim Couch, CLE
• 2001 — Michael Vick, ATL
• 2002 — David Carr, HOU
• 2003 — Carson Palmer, CIN
• 2004 — Eli Manning, NYG
• 2005 — Alex Smith, SF
• 2007 — JaMarcus Russell, OAK

Certainly no one is going to argue that Peyton Manning wasn’t worth the selection. He’s potentially going to finish his career as the league’s most productive passer; has multiple league MVPs and has one SB title with years left to add another. But what of the rest of this motley crew? Certainly there are a few players in this group who have been productive: Carson Palmer has been consistently productive despite his teams travails; Eli Manning is erratic but is better than 2/3rds of the league’s passers; and Mike Vick won a ton of games before legal troubles ended his reign in Atlanta. But when you consider the respective places of these franchises and their lack of success; it does make you wonder.

And THEN come the “bargains”; eight of the top 12 passers through Week 12 were NOT first rounders:

• Tom Brady (6th rounder)
• Tony Romo (Undrafted)
• Derek Anderson (6th rounder)
• Brett Favre (2nd rounder)
• Matt Hasselbeck (6th rounder)
• Drew Brees (2nd rounder)
• Jon Kitna (Undrafted)
• Jeff Garcia (Undrafted)

Is anyone going to argue that Eli Manning and Alex Smith are better than Tony Romo? Will anyone trade Tim Couch’s career (and his impact on the team) for Matt Hasselbeck’s?

And we haven’t even mentioned other “bargain bin” QBs that have proven capable of putting up big numbers:

• Marc Bulger (6th rounder)
• Jake Delhomme (Undrafted)
• Kurt Warner (Undrafted)

Let’s look at the draft pedigree of the last 10 Super Bowl winners (and runners-up)

What’s striking is the “feast or famine” nature of the results. Five of the 10 winners have fielded high 1st round selections, which five instances were late round/undrafted QBs. The differential is similar in the runners up side of the ledger.

What does it all mean? Is it worth drafting a QB 1st overall? Is there a reason the “great” QBs seem to either be high picks OR very late round picks versus the myriad mid round QBs that we draftniks seem to get so excited about each year?

Who says NFL trades never happen? Yesterday Michael Bennett was traded to Tampa Bay; but today a much bigger (potentially) deal went down as the San Diego Chargers acquired Chris Chambers from the Dolphins for an undisclosed draft pick.

This is the rare mid-season deal that has significant fantasy implications.

1. Chambers will be the lead WR in San Diego — It may take a few games, but Chambers will almost certainly become Philip Rivers most targeted WR
2. Vincent Jackson can’t be happy — The Chargers young wideout is now going to have to compete for targets with a proven veteran. Ultimately this might be good for Jackson’s career though, as he may be better suited as a WR2
3. Malcolm Floyd and Craig Davis become relative non-factors — Neither WR was making a ton of plays anyway, but they will now be relegated to backup duty primarily
4. Philip Rivers gets an upgrade — I’m not the biggest Chambers fan (more on that in a second) but his addition definitely improves Rivers’ arsenal
5. Don’t downgrade Gates or Tomlinson – Gates and Tomlinson aren’t going to lose many targets because of this move. If anything, this should allow the Chargers to sustain offensive drives more often, which means more red zone chances for Gates and Tomlinson; the best at their respective positions when it comes to scoring TDs
6. The Dolphins are throwing in the towel -- Honestly, the Dolphins are officially heading toward 2008 at this point, giving up their lone playmaker in the receiving game.
7. Upgrade Ted Ginn Jr. and Marty Booker — SOMEONE besides Ronnie Brown has to get passes thrown their way, and rookie Ginn is probably going to see a ton of them as the Dolphins look to rebuild toward a 2008 resurgence.

Where does this put Chambers now in terms of fantasy value?

Through six games, Chambers has 31 receptions for 415 yards, but zero TDs. His numbers project to:

• 83 receptions
• 1,107 yards

It’s difficult to look at his situation in San Diego and not expect Chambers to improve, right? Well, let’s be careful here.

Targets = Opportunity

Through six games, Chambers have been targeted a whopping 66 times. That’s the 4th most targets in the league. You can be sure that Chambers WILL NOT see as many passes thrown his way in San Diego.

1. The Chargers run the ball a lot more
2. Antonio Gates has been targeted 54 times; leading the team
3. LaDainian Tomlinson has been targeted 38 times
4. The Chargers WRs have been targeted 66 times COMBINED through Week Six

The fact is, Chambers will go from being one of THE most targeted receivers in football to somewhere toward the bottom of WR1s in the league. So the real question fantasy owners need to ask themselves is, can Chambers do MORE with each target? The bad news is Chambers has always had hands of stone.

Take a look at the 50 most targeted receivers over the last 5+ seasons (2002-2007), ranked by reception-to-target percentage:

Hands of stone. And the bad news is Chambers has been consistently poor at converting targets into catches. His career best rate was, as a rookie, when he caught 53% of his targets. This year he’s running at 47%, bout 15-20% lower than most elite receivers.

What’s the silver lining?  

I can see two potential areas of encouragement. 1) Norv Turner coaches Chambers for two years in Miami; including the 2003 season when Chambers finished as the 11th best fantasy wideout. 2) Chambers has ZERO TDs right now, but has historically been a good TD producer. I would be surprised if Turner doesn’t find a way to get him at least 5 or 6 TDs the rest of the way.

So what’s the verdict? If you own Chris Chambers, it’s probably a slight upgrade for you if he can score touchdowns, but in PPR leagues his value almost assuredly takes a dip for a few weeks, if not the entire season. If you were starting Vincent Jackson on a consistent basis, you probably want to look elsewhere. It also means Philip Rivers (who hopefully has been on your bench) might now become a viable option at QB. On the Dolphins side, this puts even more pressure on Ronnie Brown to carry the load. He’s been too dominant to sit, but you might want to give more consideration to a trade at this point. Ted Ginn probably is the biggest beneficiary, in that the Fins have absolutely no reason not to start him and let him get a baptism by fire the rest of the way.

Good luck!

5-Minute Drill: Week 6 Longshots
Cecil “On the” Lammey and Sigmund “Doom and” Bloom are at it again. This week they take 5 minutes out of their not-so-busy days to tell fantasy owners which deep sleepers are worth a look if you’re desperate for help on your bye-week, injury-riddled fantasy squads.

YOU KNOW THE DRILL!

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The Panthers have suffered a rash of injuries at the QB position, and in response to the loss of Jake Delhomme and the serious back injury to David Carr, they have signed the venerable and celebrated Vinny Testaverde. Carr missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday, and is looking very iffy to play this weekend - actually, for some time to come.

Here’s how Carr described his back injury (remember, this is from a guy who got sacked and hit roughly a gazillion times in Houston):

“When I got hit, I felt like I got sat on and twisted, and every bone in my back popped all the way to the back of my neck. It was by far the worst pain I’ve ever felt in my life. There was no doubt. I was rolling around out there like an idiot, but that’s how it felt. I was like, ‘Stop moving.’ I was trying to tell myself, but I couldn’t.”

Given the above, I’d say his prospects for playing any time soon are pretty dim. However, there remain a lot of questions to be answered about why the Panthers made this move.

First of all, why would the Panthers turn to Testaverde at this juncture, rather than, say, Tim Rattay or Chris Weinke (besides the fact that Weinke stinks, I mean)? There are several reasons - the one that tops the list is that Testaverde has 21 years of NFL experience - as he put it on Wednesday:

“I haven’t told them yet, but I have probably forgot more football than these guys already know. We’ll have some fun with that.”

There is no question that in his years in the league, Testaverde has learned more playbooks and played in more schemes than any other free agent available at this point in the 2007 season. Also, he spent last season in New England, backing up Tom Brady - Carolina’s OC Jeff Davidson (a former New England assistant) has installed a scheme based on the Patriots’ offense. So Testaverde’s learning curve in Carolina should be shorter than just about any other guy they might have tried to add to the roster during week 6 of the regular season.

Another question that leaps to mind is “Can Testaverde still play at age 43?” Well, he certainly believes he can - in May, when he was around the New England organization, and Karen Guregian of the Boston Herald filed the following comments about Testaverde participating in OTA’s (May 23rd):

“Free agent QB Vinny Testaverde is taking part in Patriots passing camp this week, and it is not just for fun. According to Mike Azzarelli, a close friend and associate of the Testaverde, the 43-year-old has not retired, nor does he have any plans to do so. He’s looking for work. He’s looking to add a 21st season to his distinguished resume. “He’s not retired. I doubt he’d be hanging out,” said Azzarelli when asked about Testaverde’s appearance in Foxboro this week. “He’s intent on playing.” Azzarelli is no longer an agent, but continues to work for Testaverde.”

Testaverde was signed to a one year deal on August 18th, and participated in practice sessions until being cut on September 1st - he hasn’t just been sitting on the couch since last year, waiting for the phone to ring, friends.

Another point to consider when asking the question “Can Testaverde still play?” is his personal history. He was reviled for years as one of the biggest draft busts ever after an unsuccessful start to his career in Tampa Bay (even though he is still the all-time franchise passing leader, by the way). Tampa never did better than 6-10 during his time starting there, from partway through 1987 until he was replaced by Craig Erickson in 1993 (Tampa posted a cumulative record of 28-67 from ‘87-’93). It would have been very easy to give up, move on, and find another line of work - but Testaverde never lost confidence in himself or his abilities. He has been to the Pro Bowl twice since his sojourn in Tampa, after his ‘96 campaign with the Ravens and after his ‘98 campaign with the Jets. Vinny Testaverde has fought through extreme adversity to become considered a success as a pro QB, and practically nobody besides he (and maybe his mom and dad) would have predicted that back in 1993.

The challenge of taking over the reins in Carolina during Week 6 of 2007 is small potatoes for Vinny Testaverde, folks.

Another thing that remains to be seen is whether or not Testaverde can establish a strong rapport with Steve Smith and the rest of the Panthers quickly - but that’s another thing he has done many times before in his various NFL stops. (Tampa Bay, Cleveland, Baltimore, NYJ, Dallas, NYJ, New England, and now Carolina). There is no reason to expect him to suddenly lose his leadership skills.

The final question we are faced with is “Does Vinny Testaverde have anything left in the tank?” Well, most recently he tossed 297/495 for 3,532 yards, 17 TDs and 20 interceptions (21/38/1 rushing) for the Dallas Cowboys back in 2004. The team went 6-10 that year, but posting 3532 yards passing as QB with an aging Keyshawn Johnson (70/981/6) as your #1 wide receiver - Terry Glenn only managed 6 games in 2004 due to injury (24/400/2), and Antonio Bryant was third on the team with 16/266/0 over 5 games and then he was out of the picture - with a bunch of youngsters (Patrick Crayton posted 7 games for 12/162/1) or aging never-have-beens (Quincy Morgan was 4th on the squad with 9 games for 22/260/0) as Testaverde’s targets was actually an impressive feat, in retrospect.

We’ll see what Testaverde has to offer the Panthers very soon - probably this Sunday vs. Arizona - but I wouldn’t bet against him, personally. If you need a #2 fantasy QB for your squad given all the injuries over the past few weeks, you could do worse than to pick up Testaverde.

Jake Delhomme will undergo ligament-replacement surgery and is done for the season.

While Delhomme’s lost is obviously a blow to any fantasy owner that drafted him, it’s arguably a bigger blow to those owners who spent a first or second round draft pick on Steve Smith; the Panthers star receiver. Given Delhomme’s ADP, it stands to reason most owners drafted him as a fantasy backup; so even if they were playing him in the early going, they should have someone of equivalent value to insert into the lineup.

But Steve Smith is another matter. The consensus #1 ranked fantasy wideout started off the season with a bang:

• Week One: 7 receptions for 118 yards and 1 TD
• Week Two: 8 receptions for 153 yards and 3 TDs

But since Delhomme went down to injury, Smith has fallen on hard times:

• Week Three: 1 reception for 10 yards, 0 TDs [note: Delhomme was injured midway through Week 3]
• Week Four: 5 receptions for 32 yards, 0 TDs
• Week Five: 4 receptions for 47 yards, 1 TD

With David Carr also hurt (and struggling) and unheralded rookie Matt Moore the Panthers backstop QB; the chances of Smith returning to elite form are sketchy, at best. Will Smith perform better than he’s shown in recent weeks? Quite possibly, but if you’ve got any chance of getting substantial value for Smith, it’s now before other owners in your league have the time to revalue Smith’s suboptimal situation.

This Week, Cec “Big Mex” Lammey and Sigmund “Rose is off the” Bloom try to give fantasy owners hope after a disastrous injury-riddled first month of the season.

Quarterbacks like Daunte Culpepper and Joey Harrington are racking up fantasy points while players like David Carr and Philip Rivers struggle. Along with injuries to stars like Santana Moss and the recovery of backs like Kevin Jones, these developments have made the fantasy fortunes of several teams go topsy-turvy. This week the Drill examines 10 teams in transition and/or turmoil and helps fantasy football players tell their fortunes.

WATCH NOW!

In 2003 and 2004, the name “Kyle Boller” sent chills up the spine of many fantasy owners like nails on a chalkboard. It was UGLY. The young passer from Cal averaged a whopping 5.6 and 5.5 yards per attempt in those two seasons. During those 27 games (in 2003 and 2004), Boller averaged one interception for every touchdown thrown.

Now, fast forward to 2006 and 2007. Boller has matured some and looks more comfortable in the pocket. He has much better weapons, 3 good receivers, a strong young running back and a top tight end. In the only games (three) that Boller has started over the last couple of years, he has atleast two scores and has 7 touchdowns with 2 interceptions.

The once-hated Boller recently signed an one-year extension that will keep Steve McNair’s understudy in Baltimore through 2008. McNair is battling a groin injury at the present time. The former Alcorn State passer has taken a lot of hits in his career and is one tough customer. But, there is a good chance he misses more time as the season progresses. In a dynasty league, Boller is a great pickup. He is a young passer in a good situation. In a redraft league, he is a good bet to see time later in the season. Now is the time to pluck him from the waiver wire if you have the roster space.

In a special mailbag episode, Cecil and Sigmund answer the burning fantasy football questions posted by the audience on our message boards. Heading into Week 3, we respond to queries about the Andre Johnson knee injury, the disappointing seasons of Laurence Maroney and Maurice Jones-Drew, waiver wire rookies to keep an eye on, and more!

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Tony Romo has more than lived up to expectations through the first two weeks, making those who targeted him as their QB1 feel like they hit the lottery. And while there’s absolutely no reason to think he’s going to stop putting up excellent numbers for the remainder of the season, there has been some discussion about whether or not Romo should be on your bench THIS week as he faces the Chicago Bears.

My advice: Depends on what other QBs are on your roster. If you drafted Romo and then quickly followed up with your 2nd QB (as I did in many leagues), I would seriously consider benching him. Here are three QBs that I’m benching Romo for in leagues I’m involved with:

1. Jon Kitna, DET (@ PHI) — The Eagles secondary is banged up and the Lions throw with aplomb
2. Ben Roethlisberger (vs. SF) — Ben is, in my view, a top-10 fantasy QB this year and a solid start most weeks. He gets the 49ers at home, and given how dominant the team has been, it’s hard not to like his chances
3. Jake Delhomme, CAR (@ ATL) — The Falcons are in complete disarray, and Delhomme has looked great through two weeks.

On our message boards, the debate rages on. Sweetness34 (a Bears fan) thinks Romo will be a good fantasy starter, but for a surprising reason:

Romo will be forced to throw because I see the Bears lighting up that Cowboys secondary next week. Laugh all you want but Grossman can throw the deep ball with the best of them and the Cowboys cannot defend the long ball. Berrian will be productive on Sunday night for sure. Also, Olsen should be back and expect the Bears to feature Hester more on O in a nationally televised game. Should be a good game.

LHUCKS argues that the Bears loss of safety Mike Brown makes their secondary susceptible to good passers:

Bears lose Mike Brown = good things for Romo and company. You can beat the Bears in the air.

Boulder Bob thinks the Bears defensive front will be disruptive enough to limit the Cowboys passing game:

The Bears are banking on their defensive-line dominating the Cowboy o-line. Against the vast majority of NFL teams, the Bears can pressure the QB with 4/5 guys, and I think they will be able to do this versus the Cowboys. I thought Romo did a great job last week escaping the Dolphin pressure, but I don’t think Dallas can count on that this weekend. 200 (yards) and 2 (TD passes) is probably the ceiling for Romo, and color me very impressed with him if he equals/exceeds these numbers.

What do you think?

Here are some quick hits based on Who Do I Start questions from the Assistant Coach Forum. Remember, you can feel free to post your own questions about your fantasy teams there (yes, it’s free).

1. Plaxico Burress or Donald Driver? – DRIVER. Driver has been practicing and should be ready to go. While he faces the better secondary in Philly (Burress faces Dallas), the Packers are at home and Driver when healthy is the better fantasy play than Burress in most weeks. I like Burress to do better than the WR20 ranking (sub required) Joe & David rank him, but I still like Driver better, particularly in PPR leagues.
2. Vince Young or Eli Manning or Rex Grossman? — YOUNG. We don’t see any of these guys as being great starts this week, but Young is out 13th rated QB. Young did very little against the Jags last year, but both Manning and Grossman are up against difficult defenses and Manning has major question marks on the offensive line. It’s close, but unless you get 6 pts per TD (versus 4 pts per pass TD), go with Young.
3. Pick 2: DeShaun Foster or Ronnie Brown or Marion Barber III — BROWN & BARBER. This is another difficult choice because, frankly, none are very compelling options this week. Ronnie Brown has the potential to be a top-12 fantasy back and faces a Washington defense that was abysmal last year. He’s the obvious choice here. Of Foster and Barber, I give a slight nod to Barber because he’s a better back and the Giants LB corps is shaky. Foster faces a poor St. Louis defense, too, but the Rams secondary should allow the Panthers to pass at will.
4. Thomas Jones or Cadillac Williams? – JONES. This is one where Joe & David disagree with me. According to this week’s cheatsheet (sub required), Williams is the better start. But I’m going to disagree and recommend Jones. I think the reason Jones is below Williams is as an adjustment in case he’s still hurt. Yet, as I’ve said for weeks the Jets wouldn’t have kept only two tailbacks on the 53-man roster if Jones wasn’t 100%. The Pats defense is particularly susceptible this week because of the absence of Richard Seymour and Rodney Harrison. Jones is the way to go here.
5. Ahman Green or LaMont Jordan? — GREEN. Personally I think both could have excellent games this week; Green faces a Chiefs defense that has a lot to prove, while Jordan goes against a subpar Detroit front seven. In Week One, when you have two players with favorable matchups, you have to go with overall expectations and there’s every reason to think you drafted Green ahead of Jordan. The Texans O-line is actually solid as a run-blocking unit; whereas we just don’t know how quickly Lane Kiffin can turn the Raiders offensive line around.
6. Mark Clayton or Kevin Curtis or Santonio Holmes? — CLAYTON. I like all three of these guys this week given their opponents, but Mark Clayton is THE #1 receiver in Baltimore, whereas Curtis and Holmes are WR2 (to Reggie Brown and Hines Ward, respectively). In Week One, when you have three evenly matched options, go with the guy the TEAM has listed as their top receiver.
7. Patrick Crayton or Braylon Edwards? – EDWARDS. Patrick Crayton becomes a viable fantasy option now that Terry Glenn is shelved, but he’s still an unproven commodity and not at all guaranteed a ton of targets with Terrell Owens, Jason Witten and Julius Jones/Marion Barber sure to get looks. Braylon Edwards has already shown himself to be a 1,000-yard receiver and is THE one and only proven WR target in Cleveland. Don’t over think their matchups, Edwards is a potential stud, Crayton is a potential solid WR3/complimentary player.
8. Lee Evans or Laveranues Coles? — EVANS. Evans should be an elite fantasy receiver this year (Top 8 at least), whereas Coles is likely to slot in that WR15-WR20 mode. While Evans doesn’t have an ideal matchup this week (Bailey/Bly), Coles also has a difficult matchup in Asante Samuel. Those thinking Samuel’s holdout will make him “rusty” don’t understand the CB position, IMHO. Samuel knows the system and play calls inside and out, and his instincts are intact; which is the ke to being a shutdown corner. Since both have difficult individual matchups, it goes back to the best player; and that’s without question Lee Evans.
9. Vernon Davis or Chris Cooley? — COOLEY. This is another difficult one, because we think Cooley and Davis are both potential top-6 fantasy tight ends this season; and both have favorable matchups in Week One. I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see Davis have the better week, but we’re giving the slightest of edges to Cooley simply because he’s the more proven commodity. If Davis blows up in Week One, expect him to be a must start from here on out.

The World Championship of Fantasy Football (WCOFF) is a high stakes league where some of the country’s most fanatical and diehard fantasy footballers converge in Las Vegas to test their mettle against one another with more than $1 million on the line. As you might imagine, quite a few of our subscribers compete in this event, and we’re quite proud of the fact that three of the last four grand champions have been Footballguys.com subscribers.

The WCOFF is an intensely competitive league and used a performance-based scoring system that includes 1 point per reception. For the complete scoring rules, click HERE.

David Dodds (one of Footballguys Co-Founders) has provided a deluge of excellent analysis and tips to those heading to WCOFF this weekend. You can access the entire discussion thread (free of charge) HERE.

Here are a few of the tips he offers to those hard core gamers:

• DON’T waste an early pick on a handcuff; to win WCOFF you need to pick a side and hope you’re right
• DON’T take a QB before Round 7
• DON’T take a TE early; even Antonio Gates
• DON’T take your 2nd QB, 1st Defense/ST or 1st PK in the first 2/3rds of the draft
• DO take a RB in the first round if at all justifiable by your draft slot
• DO try to come away with 2 RBs and 3 WRs in the first 5 rounds
• DO stock up on WRs, the winning teams usually have an abundance of them
• DO  swing for the fences  on a few picks, you won’t win the big $$ without a home run or two from deep sleepers

He goes on to offer his bargain QBs to target, his thoughts on how much to discount the Saints (who already played but will count on your roster), high risk/high reward RBs available after Round 5, and some potential home run sleeper WRs and TEs that could pay huge dividends late if the chips fall into place.

Shark Pool Forum: WCOFF 2007 Thoughts and Strategies

The recent news on Terry Glenn’s injury makes Patrick Crayton a viable fantasy receiver. Let’s look at who Patrick is and why he is viable.

He went to Northwestern State Oklahoma University. He was an running quarterback and was a star. He threw for 1,827 yards and ran for 1,520 additional yards. This was just in his final year as a NWOSU Ranger. Crayton was also the primary kick and punt returner.

In 2006, Terry Glenn was very productive and finished as the twentieth ranked receiver. Glenn had 110 targets. If you add in Crayton’s 48 targets, you get more targets than the 151 targets of Terrell Owens. It is a leap of faith to combine the targets of Glenn and Crayton. But, using Glenn’s 2006 finish as WR20 as the upside, Crayton becomes very viable as a fantasy wideout. The former quarterback was still WR56 in 2006.

It is not a reach to assume that Crayton could be a fantasy WR3 for most fantasy teams.

The dynasty value of Mike Bell has taken a huge hit in the last two weeks. He goes from being the number one option behind a nicked up Travis Henry to a fullback. WOW! What a rough couple of weeks.

But, in dynasty leagues, this is the time to buy … and buy low. Bell had a good rookie season and now is left for dead. Rookie Selvin Young is now the backup RB in Denver. But, it might be a false assumption to believe that Young would be depended on if something happened to Henry. There is a good chance that the Broncos would go with the one back on the team they are comfortable with, Mike Bell.

In limited action in 2006, Bell was RB29 in limited duty. This was as a rookie. He averaged 4.3 yards per carry on an average of ten carries a game. Those carries resulted in rushing yards and 10 receiving yards all while splitting carries with Tatum Bell. Tatum had 50% more carries than Mike, but still had fewer fantasy points.

Given the uncertainty of the Broncos rushing game, Mike Bell is a player you want to target for your dynasty team.

Folks, our message boards feature discussions on just about any football topic imaginable. And we’ve got an Assistant Coach Forum dedicated to discussion of common questions like:

• Who Do I Start?
• Rate This Trade
• Which Waiver Wire Pick is Best?
• Choose Between Player A & B?

As with all the sections of our message board, it’s 100% free of charge. You can register and become part of the community (40,000+ members) or you can browse anonymously if you want to get comfortable.

Now that the regular season is underway, we will be calling out certain hot button topics that we feel appeal to a broader audience and posting them on the blog with links back to the discussion threads.

If you’re completely turned off by message boards, feel free to email me (wood@footballguys.com) or leave a question of your own in the comments section below.

GOOD LUCK THIS WEEK!

Bloom and Cec are back with another episode of the 5-Minute Drill. In addition to telling you the must starts and must sits at each position, they riff about some of the key questions facing many NFL teams, players and coaches heading into the first Sunday that counts! 

WATCH NOW!

With the release of Byron Leftwich from the Jacksonville Jaguars, many dynasty fantasy owners were left stunned and very unhappy. There are many teams rumored to be interested in Leftwich including: Baltimore Ravens, Minnesota Vikings, Cleveland Browns, Oakland Raiders, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Kansas City Chiefs, Atlanta Falcons, as well as several others.

The savvy dynasty owner sees this as a perfect time to buy. The current Leftwich owner is left with the feeling that he was kicked in the teeth. There are no starting QB jobs open. At best, Leftwich owners are hoping for fantasy points at the end of this season, but most probably will have to wait until 2008.

Is Byron Leftwich worth a 2008 2nd round rookie pick? Most definitely, especially if you have a good team and the pick will be late in the round. Leftwich was a top fantasy passer last year, before injury, even with the less than stellar corps of pass receivers.

This may be the last time you can get Leftwich for this cheap of a price again.

When you have the world’s most popular fantasy football message board, you are bound to fine someone that has an opinion on just about any player, situation or matchup. With Week One upon us , and most drafts now out of the way, a lot of people are starting to think long and hard about their initial starting lineup. There’s nothing quite like that first lineup submission. Most people feel they had a great draft and are about to embark on a storied season…quite a few of those same people will be feeling like death warmed over come next week.

One of the thing I’ve been seeing a lot the last few days are questions about starters and their defensive matchups.

We do a lot of work on Strength of Schedule at Footballguys, and it is a factor in our week to week projections and cheatsheets. But, that said, there is such a thing as taking SOS too far.

Strength of Schedule is VERY difficult to predict year to year. As the current season gets underway, projecting SOS gets easier, but in the first few weeks it’s not much more than even money to hone in on who is the best/worst in terms of fantasy points allowed at a given position.

Let me just offer two quick rules of thumb:

1) It’s Week One, start your studs…if you drafted Joseph Addai in the 1st round, START HIM. If you have the Chicago Defense going up against San Diego, START THEM. You don’t sit your studs in Week One, that’s just defeatist.

2) Do consider matchups for your fringe players…if you have two or three guys that you plan on rotating into your UTIL spot this year, matchups become a much more logical consideration.

If you’re a savvy fantasy footballer, and really are committed to the principles of Value-Based Drafting, you HAVE to wait on your kicker. Every draft, regardless of how experienced the participants are, you see the inevitable guy reach for Adam Vinatieri in the middle rounds; as though locking him up is really a decided advantage.

1) Very little separates the top kickers in traditional fantasy scoring — Using basic PK scoring (i.e., 3 pts for 30 yards, 4 for 40 yards, etc…), 23 kickers scored 100 or more fantasy points last year. The difference between PK4 (Matt Stover — 121 points) and PK17 (Mike Nugent — 106 points) was less than a point per game. Think about that, less than a point per game separated a middle of the road waiver kicker from the 4th best PK. And that’s not an anomaly; it happens every year.

2) The top fantasy kicker is often a surprise – Every year someone drafts LAST YEAR’S top kicker early as though he were likely to repeat. Yet it rarely if ever happens. The 2006 top fantasy kicker was ROBBIE GOULD. The year before? Neil Rackers. No one saw Rackers coming, yet he was dominant. How did he fare in 2006? PK8.

So without further ado, here are two kickers that a) should be available very late in your drafts (because people aren’t paying attention) and b) have as good a chance to put up 100+ points as anyone in the league.

• Mason Crosby, Green Bay Packers – Crosby is being drafted 28th among PKs according to our consensus ADP data. One of the reasons he’s going late is that he was fighting against incumbent Dave Rayner during camp; and many fantasy owners couldn’t be bothered to find out who won the competition. Don’t make the same mistake. Last year, Rayner was the 14th best kicker and scored 109 points (two more FGs would’ve put him in the top-10). But also remember that Rayner missed NINE field goals last year; if Crosby (who is more accurate) gets the same number of attempts, he’s looking at top-10 fantasy numbers EASILY.

• Nick Folk, Dallas Cowboys – Folk is another youngster that came out of nowhere to displace Martin Gramatica on the Cowboys roster. He’s currently being drafted 26th among PKs; which is a gift from your league mates to you on your draft night. While Folk is a less heralded commodity than Crosby, his situation may be even more advantageous. The Cowboys could have one of the best offenses in the league, which means lots of red zone opportunities. Last year, the Cowboys attempted 28 FGs, but that really understates the opportunity. Remember, Bill Parcells didn’t trust his FG kickers (with good reason!) and went out of his way to either punt or go for 4th down conversions in areas that most NFL coaches would’ve kicked FGs.