For a team that supposedly had no leverage, the Cardinals come out looking pretty good today. Larry Fitzgerald, due $14.6mm in 2008, signed a new 4-year, $40mm contract today ending weeks of speculation that he would have to be traded in order for the Cardinals to field a 53-man roster.

According to reports, the deal includes:

• $40mm total value over 4 years
• $15mm signing bonus
• $2mm in 2008 salary
• $5mm option bonus before 2009 season
• $30mm in guarantees

Yes, that’s a monster deal so why do I think the Cardinals came out looking good, you ask? Because in the process, they lowered Fitz’ cap number to $7.6mm in 2008, freeing up almost $9mm in cap room to field a competitive roster. On top of that, the Cards lock up the best YOUNG receiver in the game. Fitz is only 24 years old (he’ll turn 25 in August), and is easily among the most productive receivers in the history of the NFL at that age.

Consider:

Most Receiving Yards, Career (Players 24 years or younger)

Most Receptions, Career (Players 24 years or younger)

Most Receiving TDs, Career (Players 24 years or younger)

Last month, Donovan McNabb made a plea for management to bring in more playmakers, citing the team’s 8-8 record and 4th place division finish:

Now that the season is over and we are concentrating on 2008, I hope we are able to secure some playmakers in all three phases of the game. Maybe some of those playmakers are already on the roster but have struggled with injuries, myself included, that have held us back a little.

You can’t argue with how the Patriots went outside their locker room and stocked up on playmakers last year. It certainly helped to have Randy Moss, Donte Stallworth, Wes Welker and Adalius Thomas making plays for them all year.

I’m surprised that anyone would have a problem with me, or anyone else in the organization, expressing a desire to bring in more quality players. We were 8-8. There is room for improvement. This is a competitive sport. It’s about putting together the best players, the best team, and giving yourself the best chance to win.

OK, as an Eagles season ticket holder I’m not going to pretend to be unbiased on this matter. On the surface, it’s hard to argue with McNabb’s statement. After all, the Eagles lacked impact playmakers on both sides of the ball. The team ranked poorly in big plays on offense, and didn’t force enough turnovers on defense. Certainly, all things being equal, I would like to see Philadelphia make some bold offseason maneuvers.

BUT…has McNabb looked in the mirror? Dos the buck stop with “5″? Rather than simply accept the perception that Philadelphia has a lack of playmakers on offense, I thought it might be worth putting some numbers together to see if the stats bear out McNabb’s contentions.

Yards After the Catch (YAC)

The ability of a receiver to generate yards after the catch is essential; particularly in a West Coast offense. To that end, the Eagles’ as a team generated 2,147 yards after the catch last season. That was the THIRD BEST TOTAL IN THE LEAGUE. In other words, McNabb’s receivers did a lot on their own once he got the ball into their hands. But that number (2,147 yards) doesn’t tell the whole story. Let’s look at what percentage of each team’s receiving yards came after the catch:

As you can see, the Eagles pass catchers generated nearly THREE FIFTHS of the team’s yards AFTER THE CATCH. Thinking of this another way, Donovan McNabb and the other Eagles’ QBs just didn’t get the ball downfield with regularity. So I ask, is it the receivers or McNabb that needs to improve?

Dropped Passes

Another key metric is dropped passes. Nothing is more frustrating for a QB than to put the ball where it needs to be only to have a receiver drop the ball. So have the Eagles been a victim of the drops?

On this front it seems McNabb may have a better argument. The Eagles receivers dropped 6.4% of the team’s attempts; among the worst in the league.

So what’s the verdict? The Eagles, like many teams, could always use more offensive playmakers. But this perception that Philly’s receiving corps is among the least impressive in the league simply isn’t accurate. Could it be better? Certainly. But a lot of the blame for the team’s lack of explosiveness in the passing game falls at the feet of McNabb and his backups.

Randy Moss just completed an insane 23-TD season; breaking Jerry Rice’s single-season mark in the process. As it stands, Moss also broke Rice’s record for most fantasy points by a WR in a season:

As you can see, Rice’s 22-TD season wasn’t even the record holder (it ranked 8th prior to Moss’ 2007 campaign); but rather it was Rice’s 1995 season (122 catches for 1,849 yards and 15 TDs) that was the former standard bearer. Moss’ 2007 numbers give him a 2.9 point edge using standard fantasy scoring.

While this is AMONG the best receiving seasons in football history, it’s really not the best FANTASY season. Remember, the year Rice caught 22 TD receptions, he only played 12 games due to the strike. Imagine what his numbers might have looked like over a full 16-game season.

Here is a list of the best fantasy seasons on a POINTS PER GAME basis (minimum: 12 games played)

Three things to chew on from this list:

1. Jerry Rice’s 22-TD season season is now back in its rightful place as the best ever
2. Lance Alworth’s brilliance comes to the forefront (he has three of the top 7 seasons all time in FPPG)
3. Moss’ 2007 season stands 3rd in PPG; and is indeed AMONG the best ever

You are welcome to consider the following as analysis or entertainment, as you see fit.

WEEK 16 of the 2O06 SEASON
Seven kickers score in double digits in week 16 last year:
10 Matt Bryant in TB 22-7 victory at Cle
11 David Akers in Phi 23-7 victory at Dal
12 Rob Bironas in Ten 30-29 victory at Buf
12 John Carney in NO 30-7 victory at NYG
14 Neil Rackers in Ari 26-20 victory at SF
14 Robbie Gould in Chi 26-20 victory at Det
17 Rian Lindell in Buf 29-20 loss against Ten

6 of 7 of those games featured teams that ended up with similar records (Chi-Det being the exception)
6 of 7 of those kickers played for the visiting team (Lindell being the exception)
6 of 7 of those kickers played for the team that won (Lindell being the exception)

WEEK 16 of the 2007 SEASON
Who are the visiting kickers this week in matchups of teams with similar records?
Lawrence Tynes: 9-5 NYG at 7-7 Buf
David Akers: 6-8 Phi at 7-7 NO
John Carney: 4-10 KC at 6-8 Det
Shaun Suisham: 7-7 Was at 8-6 Min

The 2005 NFL Draft was an odd one in many ways. Many will remember Aaron Rodgers falling all the way down to the 24th pick in the first round after many expected a top ten destination. It was Alex Smith from Utah that was taken with the first pick in the draft. The three quarterbacks taken in the first round were Alex Smith (1.01), Aaron Rodgers (1.24), and Jason Campbell (1.25).

Now, let’s look at each of the three:

Alex Smith has started 30 games for San Francisco in the three years. He struggled as a rookie with one touchdown pass and eleven interceptions. In his career, Smith has 19 scoring tosses and 31 picks. That is terrible by any standard. Another telling statistic is the passing yardage. Alex Smith has 4,679 passing yards in his 32-game career. In 2007, many had high aspirations for the third-year pro. He was coming off of a top twenty finish among fantasy quarterbacks. The team traded for veteran receiver, Darrell Jackson. But, Smith was averaging just 4.2 yards per pass attempt, with two scores and four interceptions, before being replaced by Trent Dilfer because of a shoulder injury. There is legitimate doubt to whether Alex Smith can be an average quarterback in the NFL. It is a sad commentary that Trent Dilfer has outplayed Alex Smith.

Aaron Rodgers was drafted because the Packers thought there was a decent chance Brett Favre would have retired by now. The former Cal Bear has yet to start a game. Many feared that Aaron Rodgers was a “system quarterback” in college and would have a difficult time adjusting to the NFL. He has appeared in seven games in three seasons. Rodgers looked very poised replacing an injured Brett Favre in the week thirteen matchup against the Dallas Cowboys. This was the most action he had seen in any regular season game so far in his young career. Rodgers completed 18 of 26 passes for 201 yards and a scoring toss to Greg Jennings. Green Bay Packer fans must be a little less apprehensive about the future with the way Favre’s backup played. The Packers have some young talent on offense, giving hope for Rodgers’ future. Brett Favre injured his forearm and separated his shoulder in the game. The veteran passer thinks he will play in the week fourteen game against the Oakland Raiders. If not, Aaron Rodgers looks poised to play, and play well.

Jason Campbell has played well this season, especially considering how poorly his receivers have performed. He is the eleventh ranked fantasy quarterback coming into week thirteen. Campbell did not play as a rookie, so this is his second season under center for the Redskins. He has been solid, yet unspectacular. The offense is run-heavy and the Washington Redskins have few playmakers. Chris Cooley and Santana Moss are the only legitimate weapons in the passing game. The 2007 season has seen Jason Campbell take a giant step forward. He has progressed and matured as a NFL quarterback. Through the eleven games, Jason Campbell has thrown for 2, 384 yards, twelve touchdowns, and ten interceptions. He also has added another 169 yards on he ground and a rushing score. One statistic many use to compare passers is yards per pass attempt. The former Auburn star is averaging 6.5 yards per attempt. This is a very solid number, indicative of his solid performance this year.

Even though Alex Smith was the only one of these three that played much as a rookie, or even through the first half of last year, he is not progressing as a NFL quarterback. This was a relatively weak quarterback class, but Campbell and Rodgers look to be good young quarterbacks for their respective franchises.

Over the last few weeks, three NFL running backs have joined the 10,000-yards rushing club.

• LaDainian Tomlinson: 10,048 yards rushing (in Week 12)
• Warrick Dunn: 10,044 yards rushing (in Week 12)
• Fred Taylor: 10,221 yards rushing (in Week 10)

Congratulations are in order as they become  just the 20th, 21st and 22nd players in  NFL history to rush for at least 10,000 yards.

While looking at some stats on Footballguys.com, there is a feature that has the matchup data for the last four weeks. This is a great tool for gauging which offenses or defenses are getting hot at the right time. One thing I noticed was that the Seahawks are the Rodney Dangerfield of the NFL pass defenses.

For the last three games (four weeks), the Seattle Seahawks pass defense has yielded the following stats per game:

• 22 of 38 for 248 yards and NO touchdown passes, along with .3 interceptions a game. For this span, the defense also is averaging a fumble recovery and 2.7 sacks per game.

On the season, the Seahawks defense is only giving up an average of a scoring reception once every two games. That is impressive. The remaining schedule includes great fantasy opportunities against the Rams, Panthers, Ravens, and Falcons. The last three listed are great matchups against average quarterbacks.

The gray-haired passer from Southern Miss is playing great. There are a few reasons for the improved play over last season. His receivers are upgraded and playing well. The Packers have four strong pass catchers: Donald Driver, Greg Jennings, Koren Robinson, and James Jones. This receiving corps has made the big plays, and had fewer drops than in 2006. Plus, tight end Donald Lee has been a big surprise. Let’s examine what the aging superstar has done so far this season:

9 Games

Completed 238 of 354 for a completion percentage of 67%

2757 passing yards for 7.8 average yards per pass attempt

16 scoring throws as opposed to only 8 picks
To put these numbers into perspective, the 38 year old has only been under 70% completion percentage three games this season, which is incredible. He has only passed for less than 300 yards three times in 2007, and is averaging over 300 passing yards a game. Now, let’s look at his career averages (over a 250 game career) to see if the “old man” has lost a step after throwing his first pass in 1991:

Completion percentage: 61%

Average yards per attempt: 7.0

Passing yards per game: 241

Touchdown/Interception ratio: 1.5

Even though Brett Favre has had some great seasons as a Packer, his stats this season are much better than his career average in most every category. He is on pace to finish as the fifth best quarterback in standard scoring fantasy leagues. He has not finished the season with a better rank than fifth since the 1998 season where he finished second behind a 37 year old Steve Young.

Even at the age of 38, Brett Favre is on pace to break his career highs in the following categories:

Passing yards: on pace for 4,901 yards

Completion percentage: 67%

Average yards per pass attempt: 7.8

Brett Favre is giving Green Bay Packer fans, and the fans of the NFL, a season to remember. If number four does retire this offseason, he will go out with a bang. His Packers are 8-1 and in the thick of the chase for home field advantage throughout the playoffs.

One of the great things about the NFL is the passion of the fans. We ALL think we’re, at times, smarter than the coaches and personnel executives who manager our teams. We all like to 2nd guess specific draft choices, certain plays on game day. While intellectually we may know that we’re NOT as good as the people who run our teams, the emotional drain of an NFL season deludes us into thinking otherwise.

One of the CLASSIC debates revolves around whether it’s worth spending huge $$$$ on a rookie quarterback. Judging from NFL draft history, the majority of NFL executives think it’s a worthwhile strategy. On the other hand, it seems a majority of fans would rather “find value” at the QB position and not commit so much money to an unproven signal caller who could set their team back for years if he busts.

This is a debate that’s not likely to resolve itself anytime soon. But 10 weeks into this season, it’s looking like 2007 will go down as a year when the FANS perspective gained some ground empirically.

Consider:

In the last 10 years, a quarterback was drafted 1st overall EIGHT (80%!) times:

• 1998 — Peyton Manning, IND
• 1999 — Tim Couch, CLE
• 2001 — Michael Vick, ATL
• 2002 — David Carr, HOU
• 2003 — Carson Palmer, CIN
• 2004 — Eli Manning, NYG
• 2005 — Alex Smith, SF
• 2007 — JaMarcus Russell, OAK

Certainly no one is going to argue that Peyton Manning wasn’t worth the selection. He’s potentially going to finish his career as the league’s most productive passer; has multiple league MVPs and has one SB title with years left to add another. But what of the rest of this motley crew? Certainly there are a few players in this group who have been productive: Carson Palmer has been consistently productive despite his teams travails; Eli Manning is erratic but is better than 2/3rds of the league’s passers; and Mike Vick won a ton of games before legal troubles ended his reign in Atlanta. But when you consider the respective places of these franchises and their lack of success; it does make you wonder.

And THEN come the “bargains”; eight of the top 12 passers through Week 12 were NOT first rounders:

• Tom Brady (6th rounder)
• Tony Romo (Undrafted)
• Derek Anderson (6th rounder)
• Brett Favre (2nd rounder)
• Matt Hasselbeck (6th rounder)
• Drew Brees (2nd rounder)
• Jon Kitna (Undrafted)
• Jeff Garcia (Undrafted)

Is anyone going to argue that Eli Manning and Alex Smith are better than Tony Romo? Will anyone trade Tim Couch’s career (and his impact on the team) for Matt Hasselbeck’s?

And we haven’t even mentioned other “bargain bin” QBs that have proven capable of putting up big numbers:

• Marc Bulger (6th rounder)
• Jake Delhomme (Undrafted)
• Kurt Warner (Undrafted)

Let’s look at the draft pedigree of the last 10 Super Bowl winners (and runners-up)

What’s striking is the “feast or famine” nature of the results. Five of the 10 winners have fielded high 1st round selections, which five instances were late round/undrafted QBs. The differential is similar in the runners up side of the ledger.

What does it all mean? Is it worth drafting a QB 1st overall? Is there a reason the “great” QBs seem to either be high picks OR very late round picks versus the myriad mid round QBs that we draftniks seem to get so excited about each year?

Randy Moss is, needless to say, having a renaissance year where he once again looks like the league’s best receiver (by a wide margin0 after several disappointing years in Minnesota and Oakland. One of our message board contributors asked the question: What is the gap between Jerry Rice and Randy Moss?

dgreen: Jerry Rice IS the greatest WR of all time. This thread isn’t to claim otherwise.

However, for a long time, Rice has been the G.O.A.T. by a pretty large margin over the next guy. “The next guy” tends to be Don Hutson in many minds, but there is at least some argument about who is “the next guy”. For awhile, Randy Moss was viewed as “the next guy” and a legitimate contender to Rice down the road. Then he went to Oakland and people started to even question his HOF worthiness. Now in NE, he is looking like what we always knew he could be: a contender to Rice.

So, what’s the gap here? How much can Moss close that gap? How good of a chance does Moss have to make a move on Rice for GOAT?

Regardless of what you personally think about Randy Moss, his value to the team, his work ethic, etc…it’s impossible to deny that STATISTICALLY he’s among the very best to ever play the position. But how do you measure Moss’ career against the someone that many feel is the best PLAYER (regardless of position) in the modern era?

I think when you consider career accomplishments, importance to the game, work ethic, attitude, longevity, there are MILES between Randy Moss and Jerry Rice. But to dgreen’s question, how far away is Moss statistically?

Randy is currently playing in his 10th season. Through nine games he’s tallied:

• 56 receptions
• 924 yards
• 12 TDs

If we’re to assume Moss maintains his current pace to finish out the year, he would amass:

• 100 receptions
• 1,643 yards
• 21 TDs

Now let’s compare where Moss’ projected career numbers stand against Jerry Rice’s numbers through 10 seasons:

Career Receiving Stats (through 10 seasons)

As you can see, Rice was quite a bit ahead of Moss through 10 seasons. When you consider the unprecedented longevity that Rice enjoyed, too, it seems pretty safe to say that Randy Moss is really no threat to Jerry Rice’s statistical accomplishments.

When you’re rounding out your fantasy rosters, it’s a common practice to overrate the top receivers on bad passing teams. Logically, one assumes that SOMEONE has to be the top target and, as long as they’re getting thrown to, they have fantasy value. Well, year in year out there are a handful of teams that disprove that theory.

This year, five teams have a leading receiver that is on pace to finish with less than 60 receptions:

Looking at that list, you see a number of receivers that were touted as “sleepers” this year; yet play for teams with challenged passing games. Let this be a lesson to you; not every team has viable fantasy options at every position.

OK, by now you’re probably sick of hearing about the “Game of the Decade” that is otherwise known as this Sunday’s Colts versus Patriots contest. But since you’re reading this blog, it would be downright remiss to not weigh in on the game, at least a little bit right?

The conventional wisdom is that New England is going to beat Indianapolis on its march to a perfect season; with bettors making the Patriots a 6.5 point favorite on the road. I’m not a gambler so I can’t speak to the logic of that point spread, but I have to wonder when the last time a…

• Defending Super Bowl champion
• 7-0 on the season
• Playing at home

…was a near TD UNDERDOG?

Rather than blather on about who I think is going to win, here are some numbers to compare the teams:

2007 Colts vs. Patriots (Per Game Stats)

Not surprisingly, these numbers paint a picture whereby:

• The Patriots offense is demonstrably better (among the best in history)
• The Colts defense is better, but not by a large degree

And what about the team’s relative competition so far?

• Patriots’ Opponents’ Winning Percentage: 41.4%
• Colts’ Opponents’ Winning Percentage: 52.9%

So while the Patriots are crushing their opponents, don’t forget that the Colts are dominating their opponents, too, and for the most part they’ve played better teams. Does this mean the Patriots won’t win big this weekend? Maybe not, but it sure looks to me like Indy is an excellent team in their own right and won’t be the cake walk many people are assuming.

With Travis Henry out with injury, the rookie from Texas looked very good against a tough Packer defense on Monday night. The 5′11″, 215-pound former Longhorn displayed the varsatility the Broncos love with 71 yards rushing (on 18 carries) and 49 yards receiving. Averaging almost 4.0 ypc against the Packers is a feat unto itself. They are averaging just 3.83 on the season and have contained some good ball carriers this season.

There is a “but” coming. Contrary to what many believe, the Texas star will have to split carries. This is the same Selvin Young that did not lead his college team in carries for any of his years as a Texas Longhorn. He split carries with Cedric Benson, Jamaal Charles, and Vince Young. In fact, the most carries Selvin Young had in any one college season was 137. This was just 11 carries a game.

Young was used as the change of pace back. He is a very good receiver and is nifty in the open field. But, the issue arises when people begin extrapolating out the 18 carries Young had in prime time on Monday Night Football. With the Travis Henry suspension ruling coming soon, Young looks to be a big part of the Bronco offense going forward. But, expect him to either split time or start getting nicked.

Who says NFL trades never happen? Yesterday Michael Bennett was traded to Tampa Bay; but today a much bigger (potentially) deal went down as the San Diego Chargers acquired Chris Chambers from the Dolphins for an undisclosed draft pick.

This is the rare mid-season deal that has significant fantasy implications.

1. Chambers will be the lead WR in San Diego — It may take a few games, but Chambers will almost certainly become Philip Rivers most targeted WR
2. Vincent Jackson can’t be happy — The Chargers young wideout is now going to have to compete for targets with a proven veteran. Ultimately this might be good for Jackson’s career though, as he may be better suited as a WR2
3. Malcolm Floyd and Craig Davis become relative non-factors — Neither WR was making a ton of plays anyway, but they will now be relegated to backup duty primarily
4. Philip Rivers gets an upgrade — I’m not the biggest Chambers fan (more on that in a second) but his addition definitely improves Rivers’ arsenal
5. Don’t downgrade Gates or Tomlinson – Gates and Tomlinson aren’t going to lose many targets because of this move. If anything, this should allow the Chargers to sustain offensive drives more often, which means more red zone chances for Gates and Tomlinson; the best at their respective positions when it comes to scoring TDs
6. The Dolphins are throwing in the towel -- Honestly, the Dolphins are officially heading toward 2008 at this point, giving up their lone playmaker in the receiving game.
7. Upgrade Ted Ginn Jr. and Marty Booker — SOMEONE besides Ronnie Brown has to get passes thrown their way, and rookie Ginn is probably going to see a ton of them as the Dolphins look to rebuild toward a 2008 resurgence.

Where does this put Chambers now in terms of fantasy value?

Through six games, Chambers has 31 receptions for 415 yards, but zero TDs. His numbers project to:

• 83 receptions
• 1,107 yards

It’s difficult to look at his situation in San Diego and not expect Chambers to improve, right? Well, let’s be careful here.

Targets = Opportunity

Through six games, Chambers have been targeted a whopping 66 times. That’s the 4th most targets in the league. You can be sure that Chambers WILL NOT see as many passes thrown his way in San Diego.

1. The Chargers run the ball a lot more
2. Antonio Gates has been targeted 54 times; leading the team
3. LaDainian Tomlinson has been targeted 38 times
4. The Chargers WRs have been targeted 66 times COMBINED through Week Six

The fact is, Chambers will go from being one of THE most targeted receivers in football to somewhere toward the bottom of WR1s in the league. So the real question fantasy owners need to ask themselves is, can Chambers do MORE with each target? The bad news is Chambers has always had hands of stone.

Take a look at the 50 most targeted receivers over the last 5+ seasons (2002-2007), ranked by reception-to-target percentage:

Hands of stone. And the bad news is Chambers has been consistently poor at converting targets into catches. His career best rate was, as a rookie, when he caught 53% of his targets. This year he’s running at 47%, bout 15-20% lower than most elite receivers.

What’s the silver lining?  

I can see two potential areas of encouragement. 1) Norv Turner coaches Chambers for two years in Miami; including the 2003 season when Chambers finished as the 11th best fantasy wideout. 2) Chambers has ZERO TDs right now, but has historically been a good TD producer. I would be surprised if Turner doesn’t find a way to get him at least 5 or 6 TDs the rest of the way.

So what’s the verdict? If you own Chris Chambers, it’s probably a slight upgrade for you if he can score touchdowns, but in PPR leagues his value almost assuredly takes a dip for a few weeks, if not the entire season. If you were starting Vincent Jackson on a consistent basis, you probably want to look elsewhere. It also means Philip Rivers (who hopefully has been on your bench) might now become a viable option at QB. On the Dolphins side, this puts even more pressure on Ronnie Brown to carry the load. He’s been too dominant to sit, but you might want to give more consideration to a trade at this point. Ted Ginn probably is the biggest beneficiary, in that the Fins have absolutely no reason not to start him and let him get a baptism by fire the rest of the way.

Good luck!

It’s been a rough few weeks for fellow staffer (and good buddy) Chase Stuart. You see, his beloved Jets fell to my Eagles on Sunday, leaving his team at a dismal 1-5 and also ensuring that Chase will be buying me dinner at my Manhattan restaurant of choice (get ready to pony up Chase!). As if that weren’t enough, the entire foundation of his NFL analysis has been torn asunder thanks to the astounding season Tom Brady is putting together. His love for the Jets is almost matched by his disdain for the Patriots, and he’s fought the good fight against proclaiming Belichick, Brady and the other Pats as “all time greats.”

That is, until this year.

In what some mistook for a tongue-in-cheek analysis, Chase eats crow and acknowledges what many of us have known for a long time: Tom Brady isn’t simply a great QB, he’s one of the best to ever play the game.

Pro-Football-Reference Blog — Now Serving: Crow

…Because while I had lots of good arguments before (at least, in my opinion) for why Brady was overrated, they’re all moot points now. The only way I could have been more wrong about Brady was if I called him a girl (which, come to think of it, I’m pretty sure I did off-line).

128.7 QB Rating. 16 TDs in 5 games. 9.20 adjusted yards per pass. 74.1% completion percentage.

Brady’s in the middle of one of the greatest seasons of all time. He just might end up having the greatest season of all time. Right now the league is averaging 5.98 AY/A, which means Brady has added 508 yards over the league average this season. The highest yards over league average mark is from Manning in ‘04, with 1,581 (a record Brady is on pace to break).

What else is there to say? I was wrong — give him some weapons, and the guy is unstoppable…

As you can see from the aforementioned quote, Chase penned this article before this weekend’s game against the Cowboys. A game where Brady enjoyed his first career 5-TD passing game. On the season, Brady’s numbers are:

• 148 completions
• 204 attempts
• 72.5% completion percentage
• 1,771 yards passing
• 8.7 yards per attempt
• 21 TD passes
• 2 INTs
• 128.9 paser rating

Needless to say, those numbers are usually reserved for EA Madden football. Were Brady somehow able to maintain this level of production for the rest of his season, we’re looking at a season of:

• 395 completions
• 544 attempts
• 72.5% comp rate
• 4,723 yards passing
• 8.7 yards per attempt
• 56 TD passes
• 5 INTs
• 128.9 passer rating

Those numbers would, inarguably be the best passing numbers in league history. Here is where those totals would rank all-time:

• #1 TD passes (Current record: Peyton Manning, 49 TDs)
• #1 TD/INT differential (P. Manning, +31)
• #1 Passer Rating (P. Manning, 121.1)
• #1 Completion Percentage (Ken Anderson, 70.55%)
• #4 Pass completions (Rich Gannon, 418; Warren Moon, 404; Drew Bledsoe, 400)
• #5 Passing yards (Dan Marino, 5084; Kurt Warner, 4830; Dan Fouts, 4802; Dan Marino, 4746)

All that and the guy has 3 Super Bowl rings and is dating a super model. Life is tough.

Very few people doubted Adrian Peterson’s talents coming out of Oklahoma, but some wondered if he would have a chance to put them fully on display as a rookie, since the Vikings already had a more-than-serviceable tailback in Chester Taylor. But injuries to Taylor and, more importantly, Peterson’s all-world talents have led to his emerging as one of the league’s best young playmakers right out of the gate.

In case you haven’t been paying close attention, Peterson ran for 224 yards on 20 carries yesterday in the Vikings 34-31 win over the Chicago Bears. Through five games, Peterson’s numbers are:

• 96 rushes
• 607 yards rushing
• 6.3 yards per rush
• 10 receptions
• 175 yards receiving
• 17.5 yards per reception
• 5 TDs

Peterson has 100+ yards rushing in four of his five games, and has plays of 73, 60, and 55 yards on the season.

Were Peterson to maintain this productivity through the end of the season, he would finish the year:

• 307 rushes
• 1,942 yards rushing
• 32 receptions
• 560 receiving yards
• 16 TDs

As you might expect, this would be a record-breaking season for a rookie NFL RB.

Rookie RB Seasons, Yards from Scrimmage (1960-Present)

But would it be the best fantasy season? Using standard FBG scoring it, just barely, WOULD BE…

Top Rookie RB Fantasy Seasons (1960-Present)

The Panthers have suffered a rash of injuries at the QB position, and in response to the loss of Jake Delhomme and the serious back injury to David Carr, they have signed the venerable and celebrated Vinny Testaverde. Carr missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday, and is looking very iffy to play this weekend - actually, for some time to come.

Here’s how Carr described his back injury (remember, this is from a guy who got sacked and hit roughly a gazillion times in Houston):

“When I got hit, I felt like I got sat on and twisted, and every bone in my back popped all the way to the back of my neck. It was by far the worst pain I’ve ever felt in my life. There was no doubt. I was rolling around out there like an idiot, but that’s how it felt. I was like, ‘Stop moving.’ I was trying to tell myself, but I couldn’t.”

Given the above, I’d say his prospects for playing any time soon are pretty dim. However, there remain a lot of questions to be answered about why the Panthers made this move.

First of all, why would the Panthers turn to Testaverde at this juncture, rather than, say, Tim Rattay or Chris Weinke (besides the fact that Weinke stinks, I mean)? There are several reasons - the one that tops the list is that Testaverde has 21 years of NFL experience - as he put it on Wednesday:

“I haven’t told them yet, but I have probably forgot more football than these guys already know. We’ll have some fun with that.”

There is no question that in his years in the league, Testaverde has learned more playbooks and played in more schemes than any other free agent available at this point in the 2007 season. Also, he spent last season in New England, backing up Tom Brady - Carolina’s OC Jeff Davidson (a former New England assistant) has installed a scheme based on the Patriots’ offense. So Testaverde’s learning curve in Carolina should be shorter than just about any other guy they might have tried to add to the roster during week 6 of the regular season.

Another question that leaps to mind is “Can Testaverde still play at age 43?” Well, he certainly believes he can - in May, when he was around the New England organization, and Karen Guregian of the Boston Herald filed the following comments about Testaverde participating in OTA’s (May 23rd):

“Free agent QB Vinny Testaverde is taking part in Patriots passing camp this week, and it is not just for fun. According to Mike Azzarelli, a close friend and associate of the Testaverde, the 43-year-old has not retired, nor does he have any plans to do so. He’s looking for work. He’s looking to add a 21st season to his distinguished resume. “He’s not retired. I doubt he’d be hanging out,” said Azzarelli when asked about Testaverde’s appearance in Foxboro this week. “He’s intent on playing.” Azzarelli is no longer an agent, but continues to work for Testaverde.”

Testaverde was signed to a one year deal on August 18th, and participated in practice sessions until being cut on September 1st - he hasn’t just been sitting on the couch since last year, waiting for the phone to ring, friends.

Another point to consider when asking the question “Can Testaverde still play?” is his personal history. He was reviled for years as one of the biggest draft busts ever after an unsuccessful start to his career in Tampa Bay (even though he is still the all-time franchise passing leader, by the way). Tampa never did better than 6-10 during his time starting there, from partway through 1987 until he was replaced by Craig Erickson in 1993 (Tampa posted a cumulative record of 28-67 from ‘87-’93). It would have been very easy to give up, move on, and find another line of work - but Testaverde never lost confidence in himself or his abilities. He has been to the Pro Bowl twice since his sojourn in Tampa, after his ‘96 campaign with the Ravens and after his ‘98 campaign with the Jets. Vinny Testaverde has fought through extreme adversity to become considered a success as a pro QB, and practically nobody besides he (and maybe his mom and dad) would have predicted that back in 1993.

The challenge of taking over the reins in Carolina during Week 6 of 2007 is small potatoes for Vinny Testaverde, folks.

Another thing that remains to be seen is whether or not Testaverde can establish a strong rapport with Steve Smith and the rest of the Panthers quickly - but that’s another thing he has done many times before in his various NFL stops. (Tampa Bay, Cleveland, Baltimore, NYJ, Dallas, NYJ, New England, and now Carolina). There is no reason to expect him to suddenly lose his leadership skills.

The final question we are faced with is “Does Vinny Testaverde have anything left in the tank?” Well, most recently he tossed 297/495 for 3,532 yards, 17 TDs and 20 interceptions (21/38/1 rushing) for the Dallas Cowboys back in 2004. The team went 6-10 that year, but posting 3532 yards passing as QB with an aging Keyshawn Johnson (70/981/6) as your #1 wide receiver - Terry Glenn only managed 6 games in 2004 due to injury (24/400/2), and Antonio Bryant was third on the team with 16/266/0 over 5 games and then he was out of the picture - with a bunch of youngsters (Patrick Crayton posted 7 games for 12/162/1) or aging never-have-beens (Quincy Morgan was 4th on the squad with 9 games for 22/260/0) as Testaverde’s targets was actually an impressive feat, in retrospect.

We’ll see what Testaverde has to offer the Panthers very soon - probably this Sunday vs. Arizona - but I wouldn’t bet against him, personally. If you need a #2 fantasy QB for your squad given all the injuries over the past few weeks, you could do worse than to pick up Testaverde.

Unless you just got back from a 3-month deep sea fishing expedition (in which case, welcome back!), you know that Brett Favre broke Dan Marino’s all-time TD pass mark this weekend.

All-Time TD Pass Leaders