I’ve mentioned many times how wonderful the forum community is at Footballguys. There isn’t a place on the internet that has as comprehensive, fun and CIVIL conversations about all things football related (and so much more). Our main football forum, The Shark Pool, is a daily fount of interesting conversations.
In an effort to call attention to some of those discussions, we’re going to try to highlight some of the more interesting threads on the blog. We would invite any of you who aren’t already on the forums to give it a try.
Today one of our members, kethnaab, pointed out some interesting similarities between the careers of LaDainian Tomlinson and Hall of Famer Marshall Faulk.
So leading into 2008, most people have LT as their #1 pick, right? Just providing this for informational purposes as I found it rather interesting. It implies nothing, although gives one reason to pause simply because a statistical analysis of their careers provides some pretty crazy similarities. For reference purposes, we will use 2007 for LT and 2001 for Marshall Faulk as the “baseline” years for reasons which will become obvious.
Leading up to the 2002/2008 seasons, Faulk/LT…
- Gained 14,889/14,025 yards on 2703/2823 touches.
- Amassed 2149/2177 fantasy points in their careers
- Had been the #1 RB for 2 consecutive seasons and had been top 3 RB for 4 consecutive seasons
- Had been a top 7 RB for 7 seasons in their careers
- Had 4 seasons with at least 1,900 yards from scrimmage
- Had 6/7 seasons with > 10 TDs and 2 seasons > 20 TDs
- Had career averages of 4.4/4.5 YPC, with 2 seasons under 4 YPC and 3/2 seasons > 5 YPC
- Had 3 consecutive seasons with > 300 fantasy points (non-PPR)
- Amassed their best yards from scrimmage seasons when Faulk became 1 of 2 RBs in NFL history to gain 1,000 yards receiving in a season, and LT became 1 of 2 RBs in NFL history to get 100 receptions in a season
- Had 7x 1000-yard rushing seasons and 7x seasons > 1500 yards from scrimmage
- Set the NFL TD record at the age of 27
- Were RB1 in fantasyland that season and the next, at the age of 28
- The year after they set the TD records, a QB posted one of the best seasons ever (Kurt Warner ‘01 and Tom Brady ‘07)
Now for where it gets weird:
- Faulk and LT were widely considered the obvious #1 fantasy football RB choices by just about everyone
- Faulk and LT both experienced a “challenger” that made their status as the obvious #1 FF RB questionable while going into 2002/2008
- In the preceding season, Faulk and LT experienced their high-water marks for fantasy points by setting the NFL TD record
- During 2001/2007 and 2000/2006, both Faulk and LT were the #1 RB
- The 2 years prior (1999/2005 and 1998/2004) both Faulk and LT were top-3 RB and top-5 overall
- Although both were RB1 in the year after they set the TD record, many people considered it an “off-year” because their overall production declined due to a decrease in yardage and TDs.
Yes, there are obvious differences, especially if you nitpick, but the similarities are still pretty striking.
As you might imagine, that analysis fostered some strong opinions from other forum members:
- LarryAllen’sjockstrap points out the obvious difference, “The only thing you didn’t mention was that in both 2000 and 2001, Marhsall Faulk only played 14 games each season due to knee issues. His knee was already a problem two seasons before his decline began. LT hasn’t shown any indication of any type of degenerative injury.”
- fruity pebbles added, “I wouldn’t (take Tomlinson 1st in a dynasty draft). For me the reasoning is all about value. His value can only go down going forward. Once he turns 30, that’s all you’re going to hear when discussing a trade involving him. If he starts to falter there is no floor as to how far his value can drop. There’s a lot more leniency given to young guys.”
So what do you think? Personally I still have Tomlinson firmly entrenched atop the fantasy rankings, but admittedly one of these years he’s going to hit that inevitable downslope in the production curve and never return to the #1 status. The question is, if you’re picking 1st overall, could you REALLY justify passing on him for another back? Are any of the other options any less of an injury risk, if not more so?
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