Now that the NFL Draft is in the books, we are standing on the cusp of the NFL preseason. During the coming weeks, rookie mini-camps will grind into gear and hard-core fantasy owners will start the process of evaluating this year’s draft picks potential for “instant impact” during 2008. In redraft fantasy football leagues, one key requirement for the kind of production that fantasy owners crave is opportunity. A player like TE Martellus Bennett (a 2nd-round selection by Dallas) may have all the talent in the world, but his chances for a meaningful 2008 season in fantasy terms are very slight due to being buried on the depth chart behind All-Pro TE Jason Witten.

The below is a preliminary list of the top rookie prospects for redraft fantasy leagues, given their new NFL homes.

Rookie Running Backs

The running back position is where the fantasy gems among the rookies are most likely to be found. While it is true that for every Adrian Peterson (Minnesota) or Joseph Addai one can point at, there are also players like J.J. Arrington or Chris Perry who serve as a counter-examples, it is also true that running backs tend to make the quickest transition to playing at the NFL level. A fantasy owner is most likely to find an “instant impact” player among the rookie running backs in any given calendar year.

Jonathan Stewart is probably the best bet at running back to generate fantasy impact during his rookie season. He is the sort of running back that the Panthers’ coaching staff prefers, and they have been retooling their offensive line for a power running attack - Stewart fits the mold that Carolina is built to utilize. DeAngelo Williams simply isn’t the player the coaching staff wants to rely on as their #1 RB - he is better suited to a change-of-pace, 3rd-down role in their scheme. Stewart figures to have plenty of touches on the ball with the Panthers this year.

Darren McFadden is a boom-or-bust type prospect. Yes, he has the type of speed and top gear that make him a threat to go to the house on every down, and he projects to be the starter with the Raiders (assuming his contract negotiations go well and he avoids a JaMarcus Russell-type holdout scenario). However, there is a crowded RB stable in Oakland, with Justin Fargas coming off a 1000+ yard season - if McFadden struggles with the pro game, he may not get many chances to redeem himself.

Kevin Smith lands with the Lions, who really like his game and seem to be indicating that the starting job is his to lose during 2008. We’ll see if their actions match their draft-day rhetoric - but Tatum Bell hasn’t looked like the answer since he arrived in Detroit, and as of today, he is the only other back of note on the team. If Smith impresses in training camp it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him starting for the Lions in September.

Matt Forte comes into a by-committee backfield situation, with both Cedric Benson and Adrian Peterson grinding out 3.4 yards per carry last season. Peterson was far more productive than Benson in the passing game (51/420/0 receiving vs. 17/123/0) and actually led the team in total yardage and fantasy points at the RB position last year. Benson has greatly underperformed his draft slot (1st round -4th pick in 2005) and may find himself riding the pine if Forte proves that he outperform Benson during training camp.

Rashard Mendenhall is likely to be Willie Parker’s primary backup for this year, but given Parker’s difficulty at the goal-line last year (321/1316/2 rushing), Mendenhall could find a role as the Steelers’ goal-line back (Najeh Davenport gained 107/499/5 rushing and 18/184/2 as the Steelers’ big back/change of pace back last year). If Mendenhall seals the #2 job with Pittsburgh, he could have value in basic scoring leagues (any league where TD production is the primary scoring criteria).

Felix Jones joins fellow rookie Tashard Choice as the new backups to Marion Barber III. Barber looks set to carry the majority of the load for Dallas, but Jones’ outside speed will give him a shot to earn playing time as the 3rd down back/passing down back - depending on how quickly Jones picks up the Cowboys’ offense and learns to pick up the blitz.

Rookie Wide Receivers

Second to the running backs, rookie WRs occasionally step into the NFL and make fantasy owners’ seasons. The most obvious example of this phenomenon would be Randy Moss’s first incredible season (69/1313/17) with Minnesota (he was the #1 fantasy WR as a rookie) - Larry Fitzgerald’s 58/780/8 as a rookie was also pretty outstanding for a rookie WR (30th best fantasy WR during 2004). However, it is far more often the case that rookie WRs bust (especially in their first season of NFL action). The last time I fell hard for a rookie WR’s potential, I ended up having Rashaun Woods among my preseason top 36 fantasy prospects - only to watch him fail miserably at the NFL level. Now-a-days, it is my rule of thumb that exactly zero rookie WRs land among my top 40 or so fantasy prospects until they have proven their skills extensively in training camp and preseason games - and even then I tend to be conservative about drafting them early - I would urge fantasy owners to be very leery of rookie wideouts.

James Hardy appears to have landed in the best situation among the draftees, with a legitimate shot at capturing the #2 wide receiver position on the Buffalo Bills. Other than Lee Evans, the Bills’ WRs generated 1 receiving TD last year (Josh Reed was #2 in yardage with 51/578/0) - not exactly what the coaching staff was looking for, to say the least. However, don’t go overboard with your enthusiasm for Hardy - the Bills were 30th in the NFL when it came to passing offense, so his ceiling as the #2 WR (if he gets that far) is relatively low compared to a player on a franchise like New England.

DeSean Jackson figures to be in the mix in Philadelphia, but the team spreads the ball around quite a bit - the 2nd best receiver on the Eagles over the past two years failed to get over 800 yards receiving or score more than 5 times, and the players at WR3 and below are non-factors in fantasy terms.

Devin Thomas may challenge for playing time in Washington, but with a developing young QB in Jason Campbell and an entrenched #1 WR in Santana Moss combined with a high-scoring TE hogging red-zone chances (Chris Cooley has 6 or more TDs in each of his first 4 seasons) - Thomas will have significant obstacles to overcome before he starts putting up the kind of statistics that make fantasy owners excited.

Malcolm Kelly - see Devin Thomas above.

Jerome Simpson landed with Cincinnati while the Bengals are searching for a replacement WR3 - if he can wow the coaching staff in training camp and sew up the WR3 spot, he could put up decent numbers now and then during 2008.

Rookie Quarterbacks

Excepting Peyton Manning , the exception who proves the rule, no rookie QB has been a fantasy standout during recent memory - even Dan Marino took one season to get up to speed before exploding during his second campaign way back in 1984. Unless you are convinced that Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco or any of the other draftees this year are of the caliber of a Peyton Manning or a Dan Marino, you should probably pass on them during your redraft league’s annual draft.

Matt Ryan will likely get his chance to start during 2008, perhaps early on in the season if Chris Redman falters during training camp. Ryan is sure to suffer typical rookie growing pains once he does get into the lineup, so he probably won’t have any games worth mentioning until very late in the season, if then.

Joe Flacco may be the heir apparent in Baltimore, but he’s currently buried behind Kyle Boller and Troy Smith (last year’s draft pick at the position). The Ravens got burned the last time they rushed a QB into the starting lineup (witness Boller’s checkered career with Baltimore) - they aren’t likely to make the same mistake with Flacco. He’ll likely carry the clipboard after preseason, with occasional spot duty in blow out wins or losses.

Rookie Tight Ends

Rookie tight ends are very seldom worth drafting - Tony Gonzalez scored 2 TDs in his rookie campaign (33/368/2), as did Antonio Gates (24/389/2), as did the ultra-hyped rookie TE of 2007, Greg Olsen (39/391/2). The three above examples are actually best-case scenarios for the vast majority of rookie TEs - the position is very demanding at the pro level and it simply takes more than 1 training camp and regular season to absorb all the duties that are asked of a pro TE. Among the 2008 draftees, expect 300+ and 1-2 TDs to be a ceiling when you are crafting your projections.

New Seahawk John Carlson will battle Jeb Putzier for playing time during 2008, and could end up starting for Seattle sooner rather than later. He is the TE prospect who landed in the best situation (such as it is) from the fantasy perspective.

Dustin Keller arrives to the Jets via a first round pick, but he’ll have to earn his way into the starting lineup - solid-but-unspectacular Chris Baker has scored 4 TDs in 2 of the past 4 seasons, and posted 41/409/3 last year. Keller will have the opportunity to learn the position from Baker and another veteran TE, Bubba Franks, this season. Keller is a guy to watch as the year progresses - he might be worth a flyer in free agency late in the season (just before fantasy playoffs) if he manages to earn playing time during 2008.

The NFL Draft is an exciting time of year for football junkies, but it is just the beginning of a long process. Don’t let your draft weekend enthusiasm drown out your better judgement as you prepare your preliminary draft lists for 2008. We have yet to get an inkling who among the draftees will fulfill their promise, which ones will outperform expectations - and how many will go bust in their first season as a pro football players.

2.32: Phillip Merling, DE, Miami Dolphins

Pass rusher had some injury woes but was effective off the edge when healthy. Has the size (6′5″, 272 pounds) that Bill Parcells covets. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.33: Donnie Avery, WR, St. Louis Rams

Quite a surprise. The first WR off the board is a small, uber fast guy considered a mid round pick by most scouts. Hard to believe he can replace Isaac Bruce without a few years of seasoning. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.34: Devin Thomas, WR, Washington Redskins (via Oakland through Atlanta)

The Redskins draft the WR many expected to be first off the WR board. Devin Thomas only had one big year at Michigan but has great size (6′2″, 215 pounds) and can also help as a kickoff returner. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.35: Brandon Flowers, CB, Kansas City Chiefs

If Flowers ran a tenth of a second faster, he would’ve been a mid 1st rounder. Great choice for the rebuilding Chiefs. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.36: Jordy Nelson, WR, Green Bay Packers (via New York Jets)

Another surprising WR selection. Was WR really a need for Green Bay with Driver, Jennings and Jones on the roster? Should help on special teams right away. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.37: Curtis Lofton, LB, Atlanta Falcons

Tackling machine, ideally suited for the inside where he can flow downfield to the ball. Not someone good in space and must be put in the right scheme to succeed. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.38: John Carlson, TE, Seattle Seahawks (via Baltimore)

Mike Holmgren called this a need, and the ‘hawks felt Carlson was a perfect fit for their West Coast offense. Carlson put up big numbers with Brady Quinn under center, as a reminder. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.39: Chilo Rachal, OG, San Francisco 49ers

Rachal gets knocked for not being a great athlete, but he’s technically sound and has a mean streak. As long as he plays inside and isn’t asked to pull and extend to the 2nd level much, he could be a starter immediately. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.40: Tracy Porter, CB, New Orleans Saints

Ironic that the Saints draft a cornerback with the 40th pick; considering there were rumors all week that the 40th pick would be part of a package to acquire Eagles CB Lito Sheppard. Porter is good at tracking the ball but isn’t a sure tackler or much help supporting the run.

2.41: James Hardy, WR, Buffalo Bills

The Bills landed the top corner in the draft last round and, in my opinion, the best receiver in the draft at 2.41. Hardy is a big guy who isn’t afraid of contact. He goes up for the ball and runs good routes; which helps offset a lack of breakaway speed.

2.42: Eddie Royal, WR, Denver Broncos

Royal is one of a handful of receivers who also project as solid returner at the next level. At only 5′8″, 184 pounds, Royal will need to prove he can hold up as a receiver over the course of the season. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.43: Tyrell Johnson, S, Minnesota Vikings (via Carolina through Philadelphia)

Kenny Phillips has the bigger name, but Johnson may have the bigger game. The Vikes continue to bolster their defense with another solid young, physical player. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.44: Matt Forte, RB, Chicago Bears

I’m not crazy about Forte; I don’t believe he’s a special back nor was he the best back left on the board. However, Forte has his supporters and it’s not inconceivable he could earn the starting gig over Cedric Benson sooner rather than later.

2.45: Jordon Dizon, OLB, Detroit Lions

Dizon lacks ideal size and speed; but like many solid NFL linebackers before him, he just makes plays. He’s instinctive and a sound tackler; exactly the kind of guy Rod Marinelli can build around. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.46: Jerome Simpson, WR, Cincinnati Bengals

Further proof that beauty is in the eye of the beholder at WR this year. Simpson wasn’t close to the best WR prospect on the board, but clearly the Bengals felt otherwise. At least, this pick fills a need given the release of Chris Henry and concerns about Chad Johnson’s status.

2.47: Trevor Laws, DT, Philadelphia Eagles (via Minnesota)

The Eagles finally make a pick, and it’s clearly a “best player available” selection. Defensive tackle was hardly a major need, but Laws is a high character, high motor guy who will add depth to an already young tackle rotation.

2.48: Fred Davis, TE, Washington Redskins (via Houston through Atlanta)

The Redskins are committed to getting QB Jason Campbell weapons. First Devin Thomas and now a pass-receiving tight end a few picks later. Davis doesn’t project into an elite tight end, but the Redskins don’t need him to be given the presence of Chris Cooley.

2.49: DeSean Jackson, WR/KR, Philadelphia Eagles

Many Birds fans wouldn’t have complained if Jackson was the pick in the 1st round. So to trade down, grab a 2009 1st rounder as compensation and get DeSean anyway was a coup. He’s tiny (169 pounds) but is blazing fast and unstoppable in the open field. He instantly gives the Eagles the best returner they’ve had in 5 years.

2.50: Calais Campbell, DE, Arizona Cardinals

You don’t find many 6′8″, 280 pound ends; yet Campbell fell into the 2nd round because of an uneven 2007 season. He was a stud in 2006 and, as long as the Cards play him at the right position, should combine with free agent Clark Haggans to improve the Cards pass rush.

2.51: Malcolm Kelly, WR, Washington Redskins

Sure, he’s slower than you would like. But have teams watched this kid play? He’s a polished route runner, has great hands and excellent body control. Very reminiscent of the year Chad Johnson fell because of his slow 40-time; the Skins got a steal.

2.52: Quentin Groves, DE, Jacksonville Jaguars (via Tampa Bay)

The Jags have a stifling defense already, but they aren’t great at putting pressure on opposing QBs. Adding Quentin Groves in the 2nd after taking Derrick Harvey 8th overall goes a long way to changing the Jags pass rush. Groves character issues aside, this was a solid pick.

2.53: Limas Sweed, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers

Some scouts love Sweed, some see him as a bust. At 53rd overall, the Steelers aren’t risking a lot financially to find out if he’s the next Plaxico Burress. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.54: Jason Jones, DE, Tennessee Titans

Jones could replace Antwan Odom right away, but he’s a bit raw to expect that. Eventually the Titans see Jones as a capable 2-way end in their 4-3 defense. His skill set is more suited to defensive tackle, but his size projects him as an end.

2.55: Ray Rice, RB, Baltimore Ravens (via Seattle)

Ray Rice is a local product who was wildly productive as the main ball carrier for Rutgers. While he lacks prototypical size, his low center of gravity and style make him more than capable of being an every down back if needed.

2.56: Brian Brohm, QB, Green Bay Packers (via Cleveland)

Now that’s kind of surprising. Or is it? The Pack took Aaron Rodgers in the 1st when Brett Favre was under center, so why wouldn’t they take the most accurate QB prospect in the 2nd round given Rodgers inexperience? Worst case, he’s a backup for a few years. Best case, he outplays Rodgers and ends up starting in a year or two.

2.57: Chad Henne, QB, Miami Dolphins (via San Diego)

How about that? It looks like Jake Long may be blocking for Chad Henne for a few more years. Another smart pick. He could easily outplay Beck and McCown to win the job; at the very lesaet he’s a big armed, young backup for a good price.

2.58: Dexter Jackson, WR/KR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (via Jacksonville)

This was a reach pick. While Jackson is another potentially dangerous return man; he needs a lot of maturing as a route runner before he can reasonably play WR on a regular basis. Blistering speed (4.33) though and dangerous in the open field.

2.59: Mike Pollak, OG/C, Indianapolis Colts

A classic Colts pick. Their only 1st day pick and it’s a fundamentally sound center that they project as a starting offensive guard for now and possibly a replacement for Jeff Saturday later. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.60: Patrick Lee, DB, Green Bay Packers

A hard worker, Lee may someday start at corner but not for a few seasons. In the meantime, he can be a force on special teams and perhaps play nickel back particularly in run support situations. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.61: Martellus Bennett, TE, Dallas Cowboys

I like this pick more than most. For my money, Bennett was the top TE in this draft. He’s huge, is a good blocker who can become great, and should be a key red zone target given his height and willingness to go up for the ball. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.62: Terrence Wheatley, CB, New England Patriots

The Pats always seem to find value and this was no exception. Wheatley is a legitimate shutdown cover corner who, were it not for myriad injuries in college, would’ve been in the hunt for a top 15 selection. Either way, he’ll help the Pats on defense and special teams.

2.63: Terrell Thomas, CB, New York Giants

Thomas is the 217th USC Trojan to be drafted in the first two rounds (not really, just feels that way). If the Giants view him as a corner, I don’t like this pick. But if they’re going to try to convert him to safety; where his deficiencies can be obfuscated somewhat, the choice makes more sense.

Today the Bengals finally cut Chris Henry, after his fifth arrest since joining the team - once again, this latest incident is reputed to be related to assault and battery while under the influence of intoxicating substances of one sort or another.

Mike Frazier, Henry’s agent, continued with the same old platitudes about “helping” Henry -

“I just want to say that we’re sorry this all happened, and we will continue to try to work to help Chris,”

- but, quite honestly, there isn’t a cure for the arrogant ignorance displayed by this ex-Bengal. He has, all-too-obviously, fallen into folly due to the special-rules-for-special-athletes paradigm that certain star athletes believe apply to them (Michael Vick is another infamous example of the special-rules disease, which is in some cases terminal to NFL careers).

There is no other way to account for a person who, like Henry, repeatedly flouts the rule of law and civil authority without regard to the consequences for their multi-million dollar career. He truly is, in the words of the latest judge to preside over this most recent case involving Henry, “a one-man crime wave”.

Anyone who is willing to toss away the culmination of their life’s work for the thrill of beating up on an 18-year old is a dysfunctional loser who doesn’t deserve yet another chance in the NFL.

Fantasy owners, this is why character counts in the NFL. When you are sorting out your draft lists later on this year, remember to weight your lists to reflect who is a high-character player and who is a scumbag. When two players have roughly equal prospects for the upcoming season, the smart pick is to add the guy who isn’t a thug to your roster - it may just save you from wasting a draft pick on an idiot like Chris Henry.

The Panthers seem bound and determined to not be a one-man show in the receiving game this year. Although I don’t have the hard metrics to back this up, I think it’s fair to say Steve Smith has been among the most double-teamed receivers in the NFL over his career; if for no other reason than the lack of quality receiving options at other positions.

In 2008, things look brighter, at least on paper.

The Panthers have signed free agent D.J. Hackett to a 2-year, $3.5mm deal and will pair him opposite Smith, while veteran Muhsin Muhammad mans the 3rd spot. Hackett was clearly the best FA receiver left on the market, and his inability to land a big contract had many wondering whether he would turn tail and return to the Seahawks.

While Hackett didn’t break the bank, he does end up in an intriguing situation. Assuming QB Jake Delhomme is healthy, the Panthers have the makings of an offense that could throw for 4,000 yards this season. Smith should be the main benefactor, but there should be plenty of targets left for Hackett.

The key for Hackett is to REMAIN HEALTHY. Hackett missed 10 games last season and has started only 14 games in his four-year career. When healthy, Hackett is a big (6′2″, 208 pounds) receiver capable of making plays in traffic.

Hard not to like this signing if you’re a Panthers fan. No financial commitment of any consequence yet they land one of the few young (Hackett is 26 years old) free agent receivers with the potential to become an above average starter.

For a team that supposedly had no leverage, the Cardinals come out looking pretty good today. Larry Fitzgerald, due $14.6mm in 2008, signed a new 4-year, $40mm contract today ending weeks of speculation that he would have to be traded in order for the Cardinals to field a 53-man roster.

According to reports, the deal includes:

• $40mm total value over 4 years
• $15mm signing bonus
• $2mm in 2008 salary
• $5mm option bonus before 2009 season
• $30mm in guarantees

Yes, that’s a monster deal so why do I think the Cardinals came out looking good, you ask? Because in the process, they lowered Fitz’ cap number to $7.6mm in 2008, freeing up almost $9mm in cap room to field a competitive roster. On top of that, the Cards lock up the best YOUNG receiver in the game. Fitz is only 24 years old (he’ll turn 25 in August), and is easily among the most productive receivers in the history of the NFL at that age.

Consider:

Most Receiving Yards, Career (Players 24 years or younger)

Most Receptions, Career (Players 24 years or younger)

Most Receiving TDs, Career (Players 24 years or younger)

Just when you though the Raiders couldn’t get any nuttier, they go ahead and blow their own record for financial inadequacy right out of the water. We, like many others, wondered why the Raiders were so eager to commit $50.5mm including $18mm in guarantees to DT Tommy Kelly at the start of free agency. And when Al Davis followed that up with the questionable signing of safety Gibril Wilson to a 6-year, $39mm contract with $16mm in guarantees, we bit our tongue. But neither move comes close to yesterday’s signing of Javon Walker.

According to several sources, the Raiders are putting the finishing touches on a 6-year, $55 million contract. The deal allegedly includes $16mm in guarantees and will pay him $27mm over the first three years of the deal.

That is BAFFLING.

Even if we accept the notion that this year’s free agent contracts are driven by the inflation of a rising salary cap, how on Earth can the Raiders justify the sensibility of this signing?

• Randy Moss, he of the 23 TD receptions and Hall of Fame credentials, just signed a 3-year, $27mm deal with New England. Moss got $15mm guaranteed. The Raiders are paying Walker MORE guaranteed money than Randy Moss!
• Jerry Porter, another Raiders castoff, signed a 6-year deal with the Jaguars. The difference? It was for $30mm with $10mm guaranteed. In other words, Walker is getting 2x what Porter got.

It would be one thing if the Raiders were signing Walker based solely on his talent, with no concern toward his prior injuries or personality quirks. But how can you ignore either of those factors?

• Demanded a trade from Green Bay
• Demanded a trade/release from Denver
• Complained about his contractual status on both teams
• Has undergone not one, not two, but THREE knee surgeries in the last three years

Does that sound like someone you break the bank for, and give a monster contract to without showing his stuff? While there were other teams interested in Javon, does anyone honestly think another team would’ve come close to matching that deal?

If Walker is healthy, he can produce; let’s not mistake that. He’s scored 30 TDs in 72 games, and has two 1,000-yard seasons under his belt. But given his attitude and injury risk; not to mention the potentially impressionable nature of 2nd year QB JaMarcus Russell; this signing makes little sense. Walker has all the advantage here, where is the Raiders leverage?

The silver (& black) lining is that savvy fantasy football owners can successfully ignore Walker in 2008. I’m sure his “potential” will mean he gets drafted far too early for the risks involved. Let someone else take that risk while you build your roster the right way.

It’s been a stressful few days for Patriots fans. While they were steeled against losing the likes of Asante Samuel, Randall Gay, Donte Stallworth and Eugene Wilson, no Patriots fan wanted to see Randy “23 TDs” Moss walk out the door. Today, Adam Schefter is reporting that Moss has agreed to a new 3-year, $27mm deal.

So ends a curious few weeks of speculation. When the Patriots opted not to tender Moss with the franchise designation, many (myself included) thought a long-term deal was already in place; but couldn’t be formally announced until the beginning of free agency. Yet, when the clock struck midnight Moss and the Patriots were eerily quiet about the negotiations.

As far as we know, Moss didn’t agree to visit other teams but that didn’t stop the paranoia from flowing over the last few days. Some of the more outlandish rumors included:

• Moss wanted to reunite with Daunte Culpepper as a packaged deal somewhere
• That the Eagles were going to sign him because Moss and McNabb were seen buddying up at the NFL event in Disney
• The Brett Favre was basing his decision on retirement on whether the Packers could acquire Moss

Yeah…it’s been one of those weeks.

While the full terms of the new contract aren’t out yet, it’s safe to say that both sides deserve credit for this one.

• Moss took less to stay -- Moss could’ve EASILY gotten more than 3 years, $27mm from another team, if he was willing to go to a non-contender flush with cash. If you don’t believe that, take a look at the 4-years, $16mm Andre Davis got to re-sign in Houston, or the 6-years, $42mm Bernard Berrian nabbed from Minnesota, or the 6-years, $30mm deal Jerry Porter got to sign with Jacksonville.
• New England didn’t panic – We shouldn’t be surprised when New England plays it cool, but how many teams would’ve let their prized free agent sit out on the open market amidst the buying frenzy we’ve seen the last few days?

Fantasy owners can breathe a sign of relief

No one should expect Tom Brady to throw 50 TDs nor should they expect Moss to catch 23 scores again in 2008. But today’s signing does put a floor in the Patriots offense (precluding major injury) and all but assures that both Moss and Brady will be among the top players at their positions come fantasy draft time. Neither is going to come cheaply this year (unlike last season), but that’s a discussion for another day.

Before the start of free agency, Bernard Berrian indicated he wanted a contract similar to the 6-year, $36mm deal Deion Branch received from the Seattle Seahawks a season ago. While few questioned whether Berrian was a coveted free agent (he’s the #2 WR on most boards, behind Randy Moss), a lot of folks questioned whether Berrian would and should be paid as one of the elite at the position.

As I’ve been saying for weeks now, the market dictates the price as much as the talent does. We’ve seen free agents land monster deals at every position, and it’s more about the rising salary cap (estimated $116mm) and team’s projected cap room (more than at any point in league history) than it is about saying these free agents are the best in the league.

Regardless of whether you think Berrian is worth top-10 money, he stood a very good chance at landing that kind of contract this offseason.

And so he has…The Minnesota Vikings have signed Berrian to a 6-year, $42mm deal with $16mm guaranteed. That may seem like big coin for a guy that’s never had 1,000-yard season, but the Vikings are hoping Berrian is on the cusp of greatness and will leverage his deep speed to take the pressure off QB Tarvaris Jackson as well as the two-headed running attack of Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor.

How much will Berrian help the Vikings passing attack?

Without looking up the stats, I bet a lot of you would assume the Bears passing attack was almost as bad as the Vikings last year, right? Now go look at the stats:

• Passing Yards — 3,362 Bears vs. 2,745 Vikings
• Attempts — 569 Bears vs. 432 Vikings
• Completions — 327 Bears vs. 249 Vikings
• Completion Percentage — 57.5% Bears vs. 57.6% Vikings
• Yards per Attempt — 5.9 Bears vs. 6.4 Vikings
• Passing TDs — 18 Bears vs. 12 Vikings
• TDs conversion percentage — 3.2% Bears vs. 2.7% Vikings

If these numbers look ugly, they are. But that’s not the key takeaway. The key takeaway is that the Vikings numbers make the Bears look like the Greatest Show on Turf. For all of the Bears ineptitude and the dissatisfaction with the three headed QB monster of Griese/Orton/Grossman, they collectively were MORE productive than what Tarvaris Jackson and his backups produced in Minnesota.

As a group, the Vikings WRs converted 56.5% of their intended targets. That’s not very good, as you might expect. But here’s the bad news, Bernard Berrian has only converted 51.2% of his career targets. Let that sink in folks. For all of Berrian’s many talents, he’s managed to barely catch half of the targets thrown to him, yet is going to a team that had WORSE quarterbacking than what he enjoyed with the Bears.

But will this signing help Berrian or his fantasy owners?

Now, we know Berrian is a speedy receiver and, to his credit, he is coming off a career season (70 catches for 948 yards and 5 TDs). But is he an all around difference maker? Even if you argue his numbers were hurt by the QB situation in Chicago, how can anyone say his situation is MORE advantageous in Minnesota?

At least in Chicago, Berrian had the advantage of seeing a lot of targets because the Bears couldn’t run the ball. The Vikings have a phenomenal rushing attack and have no intentions of throwing the ball anywhere close to the 569 times the Bears did a year ago. So even if you assume Berrian can somehow improve upon his lackluster catch percentage in a new environment, it still seems unlikely he’ll see as many targets.

• In 2007, Berrian was targeted 127 times [22% of the Bears pass attempts]
• Berrian would’ve needed to have seen 30% of the Vikings attempts last year just to match his output
• Even if you assume the Vikings will throw a bit more in 2008, they aren’t going to dramatically shift the offensive balance given how superb their rushing attack is

Could Berrian put together a 1,000+ yard season  next year? Certainly, but a lot of things need to happen.

1. He needs to be more consistent catching short- and intermediate passes
2. The Vikings need to see DRAMATIC improvement from Tarvaris Jackson
3. The Vikings need to commit to a more balanced run/pass ratio [despite having a dominant rushing attack]

I think this is one of those signings that helps the Vikings a lot more than it helps fantasy football owners. Given Berrian’s contract and the fact he’s the clear #1 in Minnesota, I expect a lot of fantasy players will covet Berrian and draft him much too early in 2008. I won’t be one of them.

The Browns continue their free agent bonanza, signing Donte Stallworth to a 7-year, $35mm contract with $10mm in guarantees. This looks like a smart move for player and team alike. After wearing out his welcome in New Orleans, Stallworth was traded to the Eagles in 2006 and averaged a league best 19.1 yards per catch; but the Eagles deemed him expendable because he only played in 12 games and caught 38 passes. Last year, Stallworth was supposed to be Tom Brady’s deep threat; that is, until they traded for Randy Moss a few weeks after signing Donte. He still chipped in 46 catches but wasn’t a centerpiece of the Patriots dynamic offensive attack.

Now, Stallworth gets stability and a chance to establish himself on one of the league’s up-and-coming offenses. His speed should fit perfectly alongside Pro Bowl WR Braylon Edwards and TE Kellen Winslow. QB Derek Anderson led the league in yards per completion last year; and Stallworth’s addition will mean even more commitment to an aggressive, downfield passing attack.

What could this mean for the Browns offense?

Last year, Joe Jurevicius caught 50 receptions for 614 yards (12.3 per catch) with 3 TDs as the starter opposite Braylon Edwards. No other Browns wideout caught more than 8 passes.

So now the Browns add the speedy Stallworth to the mix; allowing them to not only stretch the field more, but to also user more 3-WR sets with Jurevicius (a big, tall, slow receiver) working out of the slot.

Although one can’t extrapolate numbers directly, let’s just have some fun with numbers for a second; if Donte Stallworth matched his career averages last year in place of  Joe Jurevicius, how would the Browns offense have looked?

• Jurevicius’ 2007 totals — 50 receptions for 614 yards (12.3 per catch), 3 TDs
• Stallworth’s Career averages — 15.1 yards per catch, 1 TD every 9 catches
• Implied Stallworth 2007 totals — 50 receptions for 755 yards (15.1 per catch), 5 TDs

If Derek Anderson can approximate his output from 2007 again this season, the Browns could be looking at a 4,000-yard season and 30+ passing TDs. WOW.

NFL free agency is upon us, and big names are already packing their bags (or paying someone to do it) for new cities. Asante Samuel, Alan Faneca, Bernard Berrian, Donte Stallworth, and more are all ready to get their new jersey and playbook. Millions of dollars are flying everywhere as big names get signed almost hourly.

Two names are missing off of that list - Michael Turner and Randy Moss.

Let’s talk about Moss first. Sure, Berrian and Stallworth are now in Minnesota and Cleveland, respectively - but there are other WRs that are in the wind right now with their futures uncertain. Everyone is talking about what will happen with Larry Fitzgerald in Arizona, and neither Fitz nor the Cards are happy. Fitzgerald doesn’t want to budge much off of his big payday, which he has earned, but the Cardinals are on the outside looking in with Faneca and others getting signed elsewhere. With a salary cap problem that makes Dan Snyder look like Scott Pioli, Arizona is left out in the cold while the hot stove NFL names ink deals.

So what’s this have to do with Randy Moss? Well, Fitzgerald wants his money but odds are that he also wants to be paid like the best WR in the NFL. Has anyone else considered that Moss’ next contract could set the bar for what any deal has to beat to get to that level? I’ve thought about it and it is starting to make sense. All these talks of trades for Lito Sheppard and a draft choice with the Eagles and other possible scenarios for Fitzgerald would all hinge on a new and cap-friendly contract with Larry’s John Hancock on the bottom. If Randy Moss signs a deal with either the Patriots or another franchise, it sets the high watermark for WR salaries.

The downside for Fitzgerald in this stalemate is two-fold: the Cards cannot wait forever, and there is also the risk that Moss could go the Philadelphia. Arizona does not want to cripple themselves with a massive cap number to keep Fitzgerald, yet the front office is still saying that they are willing to do just that. Odds are that if he won’t renegotiate, the Cardinals would be better served to move him off of their bloated books. The problem for both sides is that every signing like Berrian and Stallworth reduces the chances of a trade, reducing the number of teams that would go hard after Fitzgerald, and also that the longer this drags on the more it hurts Arizona’s chances for improvement by adding more talent.

Look for Randy Moss to make up his mind soon, and I would not be surprised at all to see both Fitz and the Cards celebrate Moss’ decision.

I’ll talk more about Michael Turner and the running backs next.

Lest anyone think Bill Parcells was going to take a measured approach toward rebuilding the woeful Miami Dolphins, think again. In what has to be the busiest single day in the history of NFL free agency, Parcells and his staff have signed a flurry of players in an attempt to right a ship that finished 1-15 a season ago. The Dolphins had approximately $40mm under the cap to spend; and Parcells appears ready to use every last bit of it. Today’s signings ranged from veteran locker room guys (e.g., Jason Ferguson and Sean Ryan) to potential Pro Bowlers (e.g., Calvin Pace). And considering the team’s cap situation, Parcells probably isn’t done yet.

A Recap of Bill’s Frenzied Friday

LB Calvin Pace — Rated as one of the top players at his position, Pace is exactly the kind of player Parcells’ covets. Pace is big (a converted defensive end) and thrived as the rush ‘backer in the Cardinals 3-4 last year. Although this isn’t official yet, several reports have the Fins giving Pace $20mm guaranteed. The addition of Pace raises questions about whether the team plans on keeping Joey Porter around. NOTE: Despite earlier reports, Pace did not sign with Miami but instead signed a 6-year, $42mm deal with the Jets.

OG Justin Smiley — The Dolphins signed Smiley to a 5-year, $25mm deal including $9mm in guarantees. Smiley has been a starter for most of his career (in San Francisco) and significantly upgrades the interior of the Dolphins line. Smiley helped open holes for Frank Gore and will likely slide in between center Samson Satele and LT L.J. Shelton.

DT Randy Starks — Considering how much defensive tackles are netting at the start of free agency, this signing seems like a downright steal. The Dolphins signed the 24-year old tackle to a 5-year, $21mm deal with $7mm in guarantees. Starks may not be a star (he lost his starting job in Tennessee to Tony Brown) but he’s got the size (6′3″, 314 pounds) and technique to emerge in the Fins scheme.

QB Josh McCown — McCown was a part-time starter in Arizona and Oakland, and may find himself starting in Week One for Miami depending on what else the Dolphins do this preseason. Given a 2-year, $6.25mm contract; McCown is very much a safety valve until John Beck (or someone else not currently on the roster) are ready to take over full-time. This isn’t a major financial commitment, nor should it be considering McCown has never finished a season with a passer rating above 74.9.

WR Ernest Wilford — Wilford was deemed expendable by the Jaguars after the acquisitions of Jerry Porter and Troy Williamson; but he quickly found a new home in Miami signing a 4-year, $13mm deal with $6mm in guarantees. Last year, Wilford caught 45 passes for 518 yards while scoring three times. He’s not a difference maker per se, but his addition will help stabilize the intermediate passing game. Wilford is a big (6′4″, 218 pounds) receiver with loads of starting experience, and will compliment the speedy Ted Ginn Jr.

TE Sean Ryan — Ryan is another long-time Parcells favorite. Signed to a one-year deal, this is more about bringing in a high character guy that Parcells thinks will help the locker room as well as special teams. Ryan isn’t going to be asked to do much offensively; he has a whopping 9 career receptions in four seasons. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

NT Jason Ferguson – Ferguson just didn’t fit into Wade Phillips attacking scheme in Dallas, but should have a place in Dallas’ system. The Cowboys traded Ferguson to Miami today, reuniting him with Parcells for the third time in his 12-year career. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

These moves probably are just the beginning as Parcells, GM Jeff Ireland and the coaching staff look to fundamentally alter the DNA of this team and return the Dolphins to prominence.

Wide receivers are the divas of the NFL; the graceful playmakers who fantasy owners and NFL fans covet. While many coaches would argue that WR isn’t one of the positions you build a championship team around, few would argue that having elite receivers can help turn an average offense into an explosive one.

This year’s free agent crop of wide receivers is clearly above average, with quite a few potential starters available for the right price.

The Top Wide Receivers on the Market

1. Randy Moss (6′4″, 210 pounds, 30 years old) – If it seems incomprehensible that the league’s premier receiver, coming off a record-setting 23 TD season could be a free agent; remember that Moss isn’t typical in any way. Moss gave up a $10mm salary in order to play for the Patriots and resurrect his career and reputation. He played for a $3mm deal (plus $2mm in earned incentives); but wasn’t franchised by the Patriots. Before fans out there get too excited, remember that he likely already signed a long-term deal with the Patriots that will be announced on February 29th.
2. Bernard Berrian (6′1″, 185 pounds, 27 years old) — The offensively starved Bears could be without their top two pass catchers next season; particularly after opting not to tag Berrian. Although Berrian has yet to notch a 1,000-yard season, he started 29 games over the last two seasons, scored 11 TDs and 122 receptions. Berrian has the ability to stretch the defense, and would provide some team a possible WR1 or an elite WR2.
3. Bryant Johnson (6′3″, 213 pounds, 26 years old) – What’s all the fuss over a receiver who never caught more than 49 passes or 740 yards? Well, Johnson isn’t your typical part timer. He was a 1st round pick with excellent size; and he’s spent most of his career playing behind Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald. When he’s been given a chance to start, Johnson has performed at a high level and could easily be a 1,000-yard receiver as a focal point in the right system. On top of that, he’s only 26 years old despite being in the league for five seasons already.
4. D.J. Hackett (6′2″, 208 pounds, 26 years old) — Hackett hasn’t done enough to warrant a big free agent contract from anyone other than the Seahawks, his incumbent team. When healthy, Hackett has looked the part of a #1 option in the West Coast offense. Unfortunately, he hasn’t stayed healthy. The most likely scenario is for Hackett to re-sign with Seattle; but other teams will test the waters.
5. Donte Stallworth (6′0″, 200 pounds, 27 years old) — Hard to believe Donte Stallworth is only 27 years old, but such is the case for the speedy receiver that’s about to land on his fourth team in seven seasons. After four decent but inconsistent seasons in New Orleans, Stallworth was traded to the Eagles in 2006 and signed by New England in 2007. Unfortunately for Stallworth, the Patriots declined their option on Stallworth (further proof that they’ve already secretly re-signed Randy Moss). Expect Stallworth to want the security of a multi-year deal; and given his age and speed attributes, he’ll get it.
6. Andre’ Davis (6′1″, 195 pounds, 28 years old) — Davis has bounced around the league (Cleveland to New England to Buffalo to Houston) and never started more than 8 games. However, he played surprisingly well during Andre Johnson’s stint on the injured list and has earned a chance to latch on as a contributor somewhere.
7. Ernest Wilford (6′4″, 218 pounds, 29 years old) – Wilford’s numbers don’t jump out at you (45 receptions, 518 yards, 3 TDs) but he was the Jaguars most consistent receiver and his numbers were stymied by an extremely conservative game plan. It’s unclear whether Wilford would flourish in a more pass-happy attack or be exposed by it; yet with his size and experience, don’t be surprised if some team invests in him with an eye toward finding out.
8. Jerry Porter (6′2″, 220 pounds, 29 years old) – Porter seemed destined to be the latest Raider stuck in Al Davis’ dog house after being a complete non-factor in 2006. But under new coach Lane Kiffin, he worked his way back to prominence and started all 16 games, netting 705 yards and 6 TDs. Porter has an opt-out clause in his contract, and will try to earn a multi-year deal with a contender.
9. Justin Gage (6′4″, 212 pounds, 26 years old) — The Titans were desperate for one of their young WR cadre to break out of the pack and establish himself as a potential long-term starter. Few would’ve guessed that receiver would be Justin Gage. After four uneventful years in Chicago, Gage worked his way up the depth chart in Tennesse and finished the year with 55 catches, 750 yards and 2 TDs. The Titans have already begun negotiations on a new contract; so don’t expect Gage to go elsewhere.
10. Muhsin Muhammad (6′2″, 215 pounds, 34 years old) — Muhammad has 12 seasons under his belt and will assuredly find interest from a number of teams looking for a veteran presence to put them over the top. His three seasons in Chicago fell short of expectations, but he’s a sure handed, smart, reliable player that will garner significant interest.
11. Marty Booker (6′0″, 210 pounds, 31 years old) — Booker was part of the mass exodus under new Dolphins Team President Bill Parcells; but he can still contribute. While not a WR1 (was he ever really?), Booker has caught 50 or more passes six of the last seven seasons; despite a revolving stable of quarterbacks and offensive schemes.
12. David Patten (5′10″, 190 pounds, 33 years old) – Patten is a tried and true journeyman. Five teams in eleven years, with varying degrees of success. Working in Patten’s favor is his resurgent 2007 season (54 receptions, 792 yards and 3 TDs in only five starts) although teams will find it hard to look past his terrible showing in Washington or his suboptimal age and height.

The (Near) Complete List

Which wide receivers do you see making a big impact in free agency? Are there any not listed in the top 12 that you see getting significant playing time potentially? We would love to hear your thoughts, and invite you to discuss the matter in our Shark Pool forum.

The deadline for teams to apply the franchise or transition tag designations ended at 4:30 pm EST yesterday; so now it’s time to recap what happened and evaluate some of the moves (and non-moves).

Twelve (12) teams used the franchise tag designation:

• CB Nmandi Asomugha (Oakland)
• CB Marcus Trufant (Seattle)
• DE Jared Allen (Kansas City)
• DT Albert Haynesworth (Tennessee)
• DT Corey Williams (Green Bay)
• LB Karlos Dansby (Arizona)
• LB Terrell Suggs (Baltimore)
• OT Stacy Andrews (Cincinnati)
• OT Jordan Gross (Carolina)
• S Ken Hamlin (Dallas)
• TE Dallas Clark (Indianapolis)
• TE L.J. Smith (Philadelphia)

Most Surprising Tag: Stacy Andrews

Andrews played quite well last season, but it was his first year as a starter. The Bengals still have Levi Jones and Willie Anderson in the picture; although that may change now that Andrews has been tagged. Given the importance of Carson Palmer and Andrews’ age, the move isn’t a total shocker; although few outside of die hard Bengals fans expected it.

Most Surprising Non-Tag: Randy Moss 

As we discussed last night, not tagging Randy Moss is shocking only if they don’t already have a long-term deal completed; but unannounced until the February 29th start of free agency. We expect he IS under contract, but if this proves untrue, this may be the most shocking non-tag decision of the modern era.

Other Surprising Non-Tags 

• OT Flozell Adams (Dallas) – Adams is no spring chicken, and the Cowboys did use their tag on someone else (Ken Hamlin), but this is a bold move if the Cowboys don’t end up re-signing Adams. He has played at a high level the last few seasons and the team doesn’t have someone of his caliber (or