Now that the NFL Draft is in the books, we are standing on the cusp of the NFL preseason. During the coming weeks, rookie mini-camps will grind into gear and hard-core fantasy owners will start the process of evaluating this year’s draft picks potential for “instant impact” during 2008. In redraft fantasy football leagues, one key requirement for the kind of production that fantasy owners crave is opportunity. A player like TE Martellus Bennett (a 2nd-round selection by Dallas) may have all the talent in the world, but his chances for a meaningful 2008 season in fantasy terms are very slight due to being buried on the depth chart behind All-Pro TE Jason Witten.

The below is a preliminary list of the top rookie prospects for redraft fantasy leagues, given their new NFL homes.

Rookie Running Backs

The running back position is where the fantasy gems among the rookies are most likely to be found. While it is true that for every Adrian Peterson (Minnesota) or Joseph Addai one can point at, there are also players like J.J. Arrington or Chris Perry who serve as a counter-examples, it is also true that running backs tend to make the quickest transition to playing at the NFL level. A fantasy owner is most likely to find an “instant impact” player among the rookie running backs in any given calendar year.

Jonathan Stewart is probably the best bet at running back to generate fantasy impact during his rookie season. He is the sort of running back that the Panthers’ coaching staff prefers, and they have been retooling their offensive line for a power running attack - Stewart fits the mold that Carolina is built to utilize. DeAngelo Williams simply isn’t the player the coaching staff wants to rely on as their #1 RB - he is better suited to a change-of-pace, 3rd-down role in their scheme. Stewart figures to have plenty of touches on the ball with the Panthers this year.

Darren McFadden is a boom-or-bust type prospect. Yes, he has the type of speed and top gear that make him a threat to go to the house on every down, and he projects to be the starter with the Raiders (assuming his contract negotiations go well and he avoids a JaMarcus Russell-type holdout scenario). However, there is a crowded RB stable in Oakland, with Justin Fargas coming off a 1000+ yard season - if McFadden struggles with the pro game, he may not get many chances to redeem himself.

Kevin Smith lands with the Lions, who really like his game and seem to be indicating that the starting job is his to lose during 2008. We’ll see if their actions match their draft-day rhetoric - but Tatum Bell hasn’t looked like the answer since he arrived in Detroit, and as of today, he is the only other back of note on the team. If Smith impresses in training camp it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him starting for the Lions in September.

Matt Forte comes into a by-committee backfield situation, with both Cedric Benson and Adrian Peterson grinding out 3.4 yards per carry last season. Peterson was far more productive than Benson in the passing game (51/420/0 receiving vs. 17/123/0) and actually led the team in total yardage and fantasy points at the RB position last year. Benson has greatly underperformed his draft slot (1st round -4th pick in 2005) and may find himself riding the pine if Forte proves that he outperform Benson during training camp.

Rashard Mendenhall is likely to be Willie Parker’s primary backup for this year, but given Parker’s difficulty at the goal-line last year (321/1316/2 rushing), Mendenhall could find a role as the Steelers’ goal-line back (Najeh Davenport gained 107/499/5 rushing and 18/184/2 as the Steelers’ big back/change of pace back last year). If Mendenhall seals the #2 job with Pittsburgh, he could have value in basic scoring leagues (any league where TD production is the primary scoring criteria).

Felix Jones joins fellow rookie Tashard Choice as the new backups to Marion Barber III. Barber looks set to carry the majority of the load for Dallas, but Jones’ outside speed will give him a shot to earn playing time as the 3rd down back/passing down back - depending on how quickly Jones picks up the Cowboys’ offense and learns to pick up the blitz.

Rookie Wide Receivers

Second to the running backs, rookie WRs occasionally step into the NFL and make fantasy owners’ seasons. The most obvious example of this phenomenon would be Randy Moss’s first incredible season (69/1313/17) with Minnesota (he was the #1 fantasy WR as a rookie) - Larry Fitzgerald’s 58/780/8 as a rookie was also pretty outstanding for a rookie WR (30th best fantasy WR during 2004). However, it is far more often the case that rookie WRs bust (especially in their first season of NFL action). The last time I fell hard for a rookie WR’s potential, I ended up having Rashaun Woods among my preseason top 36 fantasy prospects - only to watch him fail miserably at the NFL level. Now-a-days, it is my rule of thumb that exactly zero rookie WRs land among my top 40 or so fantasy prospects until they have proven their skills extensively in training camp and preseason games - and even then I tend to be conservative about drafting them early - I would urge fantasy owners to be very leery of rookie wideouts.

James Hardy appears to have landed in the best situation among the draftees, with a legitimate shot at capturing the #2 wide receiver position on the Buffalo Bills. Other than Lee Evans, the Bills’ WRs generated 1 receiving TD last year (Josh Reed was #2 in yardage with 51/578/0) - not exactly what the coaching staff was looking for, to say the least. However, don’t go overboard with your enthusiasm for Hardy - the Bills were 30th in the NFL when it came to passing offense, so his ceiling as the #2 WR (if he gets that far) is relatively low compared to a player on a franchise like New England.

DeSean Jackson figures to be in the mix in Philadelphia, but the team spreads the ball around quite a bit - the 2nd best receiver on the Eagles over the past two years failed to get over 800 yards receiving or score more than 5 times, and the players at WR3 and below are non-factors in fantasy terms.

Devin Thomas may challenge for playing time in Washington, but with a developing young QB in Jason Campbell and an entrenched #1 WR in Santana Moss combined with a high-scoring TE hogging red-zone chances (Chris Cooley has 6 or more TDs in each of his first 4 seasons) - Thomas will have significant obstacles to overcome before he starts putting up the kind of statistics that make fantasy owners excited.

Malcolm Kelly - see Devin Thomas above.

Jerome Simpson landed with Cincinnati while the Bengals are searching for a replacement WR3 - if he can wow the coaching staff in training camp and sew up the WR3 spot, he could put up decent numbers now and then during 2008.

Rookie Quarterbacks

Excepting Peyton Manning , the exception who proves the rule, no rookie QB has been a fantasy standout during recent memory - even Dan Marino took one season to get up to speed before exploding during his second campaign way back in 1984. Unless you are convinced that Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco or any of the other draftees this year are of the caliber of a Peyton Manning or a Dan Marino, you should probably pass on them during your redraft league’s annual draft.

Matt Ryan will likely get his chance to start during 2008, perhaps early on in the season if Chris Redman falters during training camp. Ryan is sure to suffer typical rookie growing pains once he does get into the lineup, so he probably won’t have any games worth mentioning until very late in the season, if then.

Joe Flacco may be the heir apparent in Baltimore, but he’s currently buried behind Kyle Boller and Troy Smith (last year’s draft pick at the position). The Ravens got burned the last time they rushed a QB into the starting lineup (witness Boller’s checkered career with Baltimore) - they aren’t likely to make the same mistake with Flacco. He’ll likely carry the clipboard after preseason, with occasional spot duty in blow out wins or losses.

Rookie Tight Ends

Rookie tight ends are very seldom worth drafting - Tony Gonzalez scored 2 TDs in his rookie campaign (33/368/2), as did Antonio Gates (24/389/2), as did the ultra-hyped rookie TE of 2007, Greg Olsen (39/391/2). The three above examples are actually best-case scenarios for the vast majority of rookie TEs - the position is very demanding at the pro level and it simply takes more than 1 training camp and regular season to absorb all the duties that are asked of a pro TE. Among the 2008 draftees, expect 300+ and 1-2 TDs to be a ceiling when you are crafting your projections.

New Seahawk John Carlson will battle Jeb Putzier for playing time during 2008, and could end up starting for Seattle sooner rather than later. He is the TE prospect who landed in the best situation (such as it is) from the fantasy perspective.

Dustin Keller arrives to the Jets via a first round pick, but he’ll have to earn his way into the starting lineup - solid-but-unspectacular Chris Baker has scored 4 TDs in 2 of the past 4 seasons, and posted 41/409/3 last year. Keller will have the opportunity to learn the position from Baker and another veteran TE, Bubba Franks, this season. Keller is a guy to watch as the year progresses - he might be worth a flyer in free agency late in the season (just before fantasy playoffs) if he manages to earn playing time during 2008.

The NFL Draft is an exciting time of year for football junkies, but it is just the beginning of a long process. Don’t let your draft weekend enthusiasm drown out your better judgement as you prepare your preliminary draft lists for 2008. We have yet to get an inkling who among the draftees will fulfill their promise, which ones will outperform expectations - and how many will go bust in their first season as a pro football players.

2.32: Phillip Merling, DE, Miami Dolphins

Pass rusher had some injury woes but was effective off the edge when healthy. Has the size (6′5″, 272 pounds) that Bill Parcells covets. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.33: Donnie Avery, WR, St. Louis Rams

Quite a surprise. The first WR off the board is a small, uber fast guy considered a mid round pick by most scouts. Hard to believe he can replace Isaac Bruce without a few years of seasoning. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.34: Devin Thomas, WR, Washington Redskins (via Oakland through Atlanta)

The Redskins draft the WR many expected to be first off the WR board. Devin Thomas only had one big year at Michigan but has great size (6′2″, 215 pounds) and can also help as a kickoff returner. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.35: Brandon Flowers, CB, Kansas City Chiefs

If Flowers ran a tenth of a second faster, he would’ve been a mid 1st rounder. Great choice for the rebuilding Chiefs. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.36: Jordy Nelson, WR, Green Bay Packers (via New York Jets)

Another surprising WR selection. Was WR really a need for Green Bay with Driver, Jennings and Jones on the roster? Should help on special teams right away. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.37: Curtis Lofton, LB, Atlanta Falcons

Tackling machine, ideally suited for the inside where he can flow downfield to the ball. Not someone good in space and must be put in the right scheme to succeed. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.38: John Carlson, TE, Seattle Seahawks (via Baltimore)

Mike Holmgren called this a need, and the ‘hawks felt Carlson was a perfect fit for their West Coast offense. Carlson put up big numbers with Brady Quinn under center, as a reminder. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.39: Chilo Rachal, OG, San Francisco 49ers

Rachal gets knocked for not being a great athlete, but he’s technically sound and has a mean streak. As long as he plays inside and isn’t asked to pull and extend to the 2nd level much, he could be a starter immediately. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.40: Tracy Porter, CB, New Orleans Saints

Ironic that the Saints draft a cornerback with the 40th pick; considering there were rumors all week that the 40th pick would be part of a package to acquire Eagles CB Lito Sheppard. Porter is good at tracking the ball but isn’t a sure tackler or much help supporting the run.

2.41: James Hardy, WR, Buffalo Bills

The Bills landed the top corner in the draft last round and, in my opinion, the best receiver in the draft at 2.41. Hardy is a big guy who isn’t afraid of contact. He goes up for the ball and runs good routes; which helps offset a lack of breakaway speed.

2.42: Eddie Royal, WR, Denver Broncos

Royal is one of a handful of receivers who also project as solid returner at the next level. At only 5′8″, 184 pounds, Royal will need to prove he can hold up as a receiver over the course of the season. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.43: Tyrell Johnson, S, Minnesota Vikings (via Carolina through Philadelphia)

Kenny Phillips has the bigger name, but Johnson may have the bigger game. The Vikes continue to bolster their defense with another solid young, physical player. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.44: Matt Forte, RB, Chicago Bears

I’m not crazy about Forte; I don’t believe he’s a special back nor was he the best back left on the board. However, Forte has his supporters and it’s not inconceivable he could earn the starting gig over Cedric Benson sooner rather than later.

2.45: Jordon Dizon, OLB, Detroit Lions

Dizon lacks ideal size and speed; but like many solid NFL linebackers before him, he just makes plays. He’s instinctive and a sound tackler; exactly the kind of guy Rod Marinelli can build around. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.46: Jerome Simpson, WR, Cincinnati Bengals

Further proof that beauty is in the eye of the beholder at WR this year. Simpson wasn’t close to the best WR prospect on the board, but clearly the Bengals felt otherwise. At least, this pick fills a need given the release of Chris Henry and concerns about Chad Johnson’s status.

2.47: Trevor Laws, DT, Philadelphia Eagles (via Minnesota)

The Eagles finally make a pick, and it’s clearly a “best player available” selection. Defensive tackle was hardly a major need, but Laws is a high character, high motor guy who will add depth to an already young tackle rotation.

2.48: Fred Davis, TE, Washington Redskins (via Houston through Atlanta)

The Redskins are committed to getting QB Jason Campbell weapons. First Devin Thomas and now a pass-receiving tight end a few picks later. Davis doesn’t project into an elite tight end, but the Redskins don’t need him to be given the presence of Chris Cooley.

2.49: DeSean Jackson, WR/KR, Philadelphia Eagles

Many Birds fans wouldn’t have complained if Jackson was the pick in the 1st round. So to trade down, grab a 2009 1st rounder as compensation and get DeSean anyway was a coup. He’s tiny (169 pounds) but is blazing fast and unstoppable in the open field. He instantly gives the Eagles the best returner they’ve had in 5 years.

2.50: Calais Campbell, DE, Arizona Cardinals

You don’t find many 6′8″, 280 pound ends; yet Campbell fell into the 2nd round because of an uneven 2007 season. He was a stud in 2006 and, as long as the Cards play him at the right position, should combine with free agent Clark Haggans to improve the Cards pass rush.

2.51: Malcolm Kelly, WR, Washington Redskins

Sure, he’s slower than you would like. But have teams watched this kid play? He’s a polished route runner, has great hands and excellent body control. Very reminiscent of the year Chad Johnson fell because of his slow 40-time; the Skins got a steal.

2.52: Quentin Groves, DE, Jacksonville Jaguars (via Tampa Bay)

The Jags have a stifling defense already, but they aren’t great at putting pressure on opposing QBs. Adding Quentin Groves in the 2nd after taking Derrick Harvey 8th overall goes a long way to changing the Jags pass rush. Groves character issues aside, this was a solid pick.

2.53: Limas Sweed, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers

Some scouts love Sweed, some see him as a bust. At 53rd overall, the Steelers aren’t risking a lot financially to find out if he’s the next Plaxico Burress. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.54: Jason Jones, DE, Tennessee Titans

Jones could replace Antwan Odom right away, but he’s a bit raw to expect that. Eventually the Titans see Jones as a capable 2-way end in their 4-3 defense. His skill set is more suited to defensive tackle, but his size projects him as an end.

2.55: Ray Rice, RB, Baltimore Ravens (via Seattle)

Ray Rice is a local product who was wildly productive as the main ball carrier for Rutgers. While he lacks prototypical size, his low center of gravity and style make him more than capable of being an every down back if needed.

2.56: Brian Brohm, QB, Green Bay Packers (via Cleveland)

Now that’s kind of surprising. Or is it? The Pack took Aaron Rodgers in the 1st when Brett Favre was under center, so why wouldn’t they take the most accurate QB prospect in the 2nd round given Rodgers inexperience? Worst case, he’s a backup for a few years. Best case, he outplays Rodgers and ends up starting in a year or two.

2.57: Chad Henne, QB, Miami Dolphins (via San Diego)

How about that? It looks like Jake Long may be blocking for Chad Henne for a few more years. Another smart pick. He could easily outplay Beck and McCown to win the job; at the very lesaet he’s a big armed, young backup for a good price.

2.58: Dexter Jackson, WR/KR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (via Jacksonville)

This was a reach pick. While Jackson is another potentially dangerous return man; he needs a lot of maturing as a route runner before he can reasonably play WR on a regular basis. Blistering speed (4.33) though and dangerous in the open field.

2.59: Mike Pollak, OG/C, Indianapolis Colts

A classic Colts pick. Their only 1st day pick and it’s a fundamentally sound center that they project as a starting offensive guard for now and possibly a replacement for Jeff Saturday later. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.60: Patrick Lee, DB, Green Bay Packers

A hard worker, Lee may someday start at corner but not for a few seasons. In the meantime, he can be a force on special teams and perhaps play nickel back particularly in run support situations. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.61: Martellus Bennett, TE, Dallas Cowboys

I like this pick more than most. For my money, Bennett was the top TE in this draft. He’s huge, is a good blocker who can become great, and should be a key red zone target given his height and willingness to go up for the ball. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.62: Terrence Wheatley, CB, New England Patriots

The Pats always seem to find value and this was no exception. Wheatley is a legitimate shutdown cover corner who, were it not for myriad injuries in college, would’ve been in the hunt for a top 15 selection. Either way, he’ll help the Pats on defense and special teams.

2.63: Terrell Thomas, CB, New York Giants

Thomas is the 217th USC Trojan to be drafted in the first two rounds (not really, just feels that way). If the Giants view him as a corner, I don’t like this pick. But if they’re going to try to convert him to safety; where his deficiencies can be obfuscated somewhat, the choice makes more sense.

What is it with the Jets and 1st round tight ends? Inexplicably, the Jets gave up a boatload to move back into the 1st round and select TE Dustin Keller, the tight end from Purdue. Sure, Keller was among the top rated TEs on many draft boards, but this was considered a weak draft for the position and no one would’ve blinked twice if Keller went in the 3rd round. If the Jets view him as an H-back type, he could prove worthy but as a conventional tight end, he shows neither the blocking ability or the strength to outmuscle defenders in space to warrant a 1st round pick.

Fantasy Impact: Tough to say. Chris Baker is no fantasy stud and the Jets could use weapons. If Keller is used as an H-back and put into receiving routes quite a bit, he could be a surprise. But rookie tight ends are rarely worth the trouble.

Lest anyone think Bill Parcells was going to take a measured approach toward rebuilding the woeful Miami Dolphins, think again. In what has to be the busiest single day in the history of NFL free agency, Parcells and his staff have signed a flurry of players in an attempt to right a ship that finished 1-15 a season ago. The Dolphins had approximately $40mm under the cap to spend; and Parcells appears ready to use every last bit of it. Today’s signings ranged from veteran locker room guys (e.g., Jason Ferguson and Sean Ryan) to potential Pro Bowlers (e.g., Calvin Pace). And considering the team’s cap situation, Parcells probably isn’t done yet.

A Recap of Bill’s Frenzied Friday

LB Calvin Pace — Rated as one of the top players at his position, Pace is exactly the kind of player Parcells’ covets. Pace is big (a converted defensive end) and thrived as the rush ‘backer in the Cardinals 3-4 last year. Although this isn’t official yet, several reports have the Fins giving Pace $20mm guaranteed. The addition of Pace raises questions about whether the team plans on keeping Joey Porter around. NOTE: Despite earlier reports, Pace did not sign with Miami but instead signed a 6-year, $42mm deal with the Jets.

OG Justin Smiley — The Dolphins signed Smiley to a 5-year, $25mm deal including $9mm in guarantees. Smiley has been a starter for most of his career (in San Francisco) and significantly upgrades the interior of the Dolphins line. Smiley helped open holes for Frank Gore and will likely slide in between center Samson Satele and LT L.J. Shelton.

DT Randy Starks — Considering how much defensive tackles are netting at the start of free agency, this signing seems like a downright steal. The Dolphins signed the 24-year old tackle to a 5-year, $21mm deal with $7mm in guarantees. Starks may not be a star (he lost his starting job in Tennessee to Tony Brown) but he’s got the size (6′3″, 314 pounds) and technique to emerge in the Fins scheme.

QB Josh McCown — McCown was a part-time starter in Arizona and Oakland, and may find himself starting in Week One for Miami depending on what else the Dolphins do this preseason. Given a 2-year, $6.25mm contract; McCown is very much a safety valve until John Beck (or someone else not currently on the roster) are ready to take over full-time. This isn’t a major financial commitment, nor should it be considering McCown has never finished a season with a passer rating above 74.9.

WR Ernest Wilford — Wilford was deemed expendable by the Jaguars after the acquisitions of Jerry Porter and Troy Williamson; but he quickly found a new home in Miami signing a 4-year, $13mm deal with $6mm in guarantees. Last year, Wilford caught 45 passes for 518 yards while scoring three times. He’s not a difference maker per se, but his addition will help stabilize the intermediate passing game. Wilford is a big (6′4″, 218 pounds) receiver with loads of starting experience, and will compliment the speedy Ted Ginn Jr.

TE Sean Ryan — Ryan is another long-time Parcells favorite. Signed to a one-year deal, this is more about bringing in a high character guy that Parcells thinks will help the locker room as well as special teams. Ryan isn’t going to be asked to do much offensively; he has a whopping 9 career receptions in four seasons. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

NT Jason Ferguson – Ferguson just didn’t fit into Wade Phillips attacking scheme in Dallas, but should have a place in Dallas’ system. The Cowboys traded Ferguson to Miami today, reuniting him with Parcells for the third time in his 12-year career. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

These moves probably are just the beginning as Parcells, GM Jeff Ireland and the coaching staff look to fundamentally alter the DNA of this team and return the Dolphins to prominence.

While it’s true that two of this year’s top options at tight end were franchised:

• Dallas Clark in Indianapolis
• L.J. Smith in Philadelphia

…there are a number of viable options remaining at the TE position. Whether you want a proven, pass-catching stud with some injury questions (Alge Crumpler) or a blocking beast (Kyle Brady) or something in between (Marcus Pollard); there are choices. Given the breadth of available free agents, expect a lot of movement for very reasonable financial terms.

The Top Tight Ends on the Market

1. Alge Crumpler (6′2″, 264 pounds, 30 years old) – The seven year veteran is the gem of the free agent market; but recent injury concerns might keep him from reaping top dollar. Crumpler is a perennial Pro Bowler and actually managed to make Michael Vick look like a real NFL passer at times. Even though he only started 10 games last year, Crumpler caught 42 passes for 444 yards and 5 TDs. Crumpler also can stretch the field; averaging 13.3 yards per catch over his career, and logging catches of 40 or more yards in all but one season. Expect Crumpler to visit several teams before signing a multi-year deal as a starter for a playoff contender.
2. Bo Scaife (6′3″, 249 pounds, 27 years old) – Scaife is a restricted free agent and probably isn’t leaving Tennessee. But he’s young and sure handed; making it entirely possible some team will sign him to an offer sheet. Expect Scaife to re-sign with Tennessee with a multi-year deal.
3. Ben Utecht (6′6″, 251 pounds, 26 years old) — Everyone knows about Dallas Clark, but Utecht is quietly a valuable part of the Colts offensive attack. Not only has he caught 68 passes over the last two seasons, but he’s averaged better than 11 yards per reception. Although he’s a restricted free agent, his age and versatility make him an attractive option for a team looking at upgrading their starter without breaking the bank.
4. Eric Johnson (6′3″, 252 pounds, 28 years old) – Johnson, when healthy, is a solid pass catcher but lacks explosiveness (career 9.1 yards per catch). He’s also failed to play a full season yet in his career. That said, he caught 48 passes in 12 starts last year as a Saint, and will get an opportunity to make plays for some team in 2008.

The (Near) Complete List

It was bad enough that Antonio Gates was hobbled throughout the Chargers playoff run (6 catches for 60 yards and no scores in 3 games); but now fans have to wonder if he’ll be a factor at all in 2008. Yes folks, the world’s most dominant fantasy tight end is likely to undergo surgery next week to repair his injured foot. Although some have reported that Gates would be fine by the beginning of the regular season; he doesn’t appear as confident:

“It may be the beginning of training camp and it may be the middle of the season,” Antonio Gates said.

Until we have a clearer sense about Gates’ injury and the severity, it’s pure conjecture as to his projected recovery time. One thing is clear, Gates will present fantasy owners will a conundrum come draft time. He’s been BY FAR, the best fantasy TE in the league for years and there’s no reason to think he wouldn’t reprise that role again in 2008 if healthy. But given his lack of productivity in December and January; plus the recovery time from his upcoming surgery, how far must his draft stock fall before he represents good value? Stay tuned!

The deadline for teams to apply the franchise or transition tag designations ended at 4:30 pm EST yesterday; so now it’s time to recap what happened and evaluate some of the moves (and non-moves).

Twelve (12) teams used the franchise tag designation:

• CB Nmandi Asomugha (Oakland)
• CB Marcus Trufant (Seattle)
• DE Jared Allen (Kansas City)
• DT Albert Haynesworth (Tennessee)
• DT Corey Williams (Green Bay)
• LB Karlos Dansby (Arizona)
• LB Terrell Suggs (Baltimore)
• OT Stacy Andrews (Cincinnati)
• OT Jordan Gross (Carolina)
• S Ken Hamlin (Dallas)
• TE Dallas Clark (Indianapolis)
• TE L.J. Smith (Philadelphia)

Most Surprising Tag: Stacy Andrews

Andrews played quite well last season, but it was his first year as a starter. The Bengals still have Levi Jones and Willie Anderson in the picture; although that may change now that Andrews has been tagged. Given the importance of Carson Palmer and Andrews’ age, the move isn’t a total shocker; although few outside of die hard Bengals fans expected it.

Most Surprising Non-Tag: Randy Moss 

As we discussed last night, not tagging Randy Moss is shocking only if they don’t already have a long-term deal completed; but unannounced until the February 29th start of free agency. We expect he IS under contract, but if this proves untrue, this may be the most shocking non-tag decision of the modern era.

Other Surprising Non-Tags 

• OT Flozell Adams (Dallas) – Adams is no spring chicken, and the Cowboys did use their tag on someone else (Ken Hamlin), but this is a bold move if the Cowboys don’t end up re-signing Adams. He has played at a high level the last few seasons and the team doesn’t have someone of his caliber (or close to it) currently on the roster. Will Jerry Jones be willing to go to battle with a young, unproven tackle in 2008?
• PK Josh Brown (Seattle) — The Seahawks tagged Brown last year and it was thought he could be tagged again this season; but now free agency looms. It’s never an easy decision to let a proven kicker walk, but perhaps they didn’t see the logic in making him the highest paid PK in the league.

Interesting Tag Minutiae

• Exclusive tag versus non-exclusive – As we discussed earlier this week, Nmandi Asomugha was tagged with an exclusive franchise designation, meaning the Raiders paid him more (the average of the 2008 top 5 projected salaries versus the 2007 in a normal tag) in exchange for keeping Asomugha from being able to negotiate with other teams. It’s telling that only one of twelve teams opted to use this tag; as it involves paying a player more yet brings less wiggle room. Why a team would pass up the idea of getting 2 first round picks if a team wants their free agent badly enough is a mystery (the Raiders would still have had the right to match).
• Is Suggs a linebacker or defensive end? — The Baltimore Ravens tagged Terrell Suggs as a linebacker, but he has filed a grievance contending he should be paid as a defensive end. The difference? About $800K for the one-year tender. This matter will be settled shortly (if Suggs lined up more than 50% of the snaps as an end, he’ll get his extra dough), but it’s odd that Suggs, who has gone to the Pro Bowl twice as a LINEBACKER would think of himself otherwise.

Most Likely to Sign a Long-term Deal: Dallas Clark

OK, this is cheating since Clark already signed a 6-year deal to remain with the Colts.

Least Likely to Sign a Long-term Deal:  L.J. Smith

The Eagles remain concerned about Smith’s health and likely won’t agree to a long-term extension without seeing improvement on the field. This is basically a one-year option to retain a talented, system TE in a very weak free agent market for tight ends.

How did we do in our predictions?

We previewed each division and our thoughts on potential tag candidates. Overall, I’d say we did quite well.

• We correctly predicted 9 of 10 ‘definites’; our only whiff was on Randy Moss
• We noted that Flozell Adams and Ken Hamlin were possibilities in Dallas [although we leaned toward Adams]
• We noted that Brown and Trufant were possibilities in Seattle [and leaned toward Trufant]
• We noted DT Corey Williams and WR Bernard Berrian as possible tags [one out of two]
• We suggested that Justin Smith shouldn’t be tagged

Now it’s onto free agency and the NFL draft!
Related Blogs:

• ‘Tis the Season for Tagging
• NFC East Potential Tag Candidates
• NFC North Potential Tag Candidates
• NFC South Potential Tag Candidates
• NFC West Potential Tag Candidates
• AFC East Potential Tag Candidates
• AFC North Potential Tag Candidates
• AFC South Potential Tag Candidates
• AFC West Potential Tag Candidates

Just a few days ago, Dallas Clark was franchised leaving the TE market relatively bereft of major talent in free agency. Just a few days later, Clark and the Colts have come to terms with a 6-year deal. Although terms have not yet been disclosed, a source told ESPN that the deal will make Clark the highest paid tight end in the league.

Anyone think Antonio Gates is hearing that and thinking about what kind of extension he deserves from the Chargers?

Dallas Clark was given the franchise tag designation by the Colts today. Expect Clark to sign the tender, guaranteeing him $4.522 million. More likely, he and the team will come to terms on a long-term deal before the July deadline.

While this move was widely expected, it does officially leave the free agent market thin at tight end.

Top Free Agent Tight Ends

1. Dallas Clark (IND)
2. L.J. Smith (PHI)
3. Alge Crumpler (ATL) **
4. Bo Scaife (TEN) ***
5. Eric Johnson (NO)
6. Marcus Pollard (SEA)
7. Ben Troupe (TEN)

** = Released by 2007 team
*** = Restricted free agent

Houston Texans

The Texans don’t appear to have anyone that would warrant a franchise or transition tag designation.

Indianapolis Colts

TE Dallas Clark

The Colts would be well served to tag Dallas Clark if they can’t come to terms on an extension in the next week. Clark has evolved into one of Peyton Manning’s most reliable receivers and, from what we understand, is one of his best friends on the team to boot. With the Eagles decision to tag L.J. Smith, Clark becomes far and away the most attractive free agent tight end; the last thing the Colts want is to let Clark get into the open market.

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Jacksonville Jaguars

Most of the Jaguars free agents are expendable, with only Quinn Gray and Ernest Wilford likely to be priorities. That said, neither player warrants the franchise or transition tag designations.

Tennessee Titans

DT Albert Haynesworth

Albert Hayneworth may be a controversial player and, from a personality standpoint, may not be the optimal guy to have in the locker room. That said, the Titans are faced with a difficult decision because Hayneworth’s on-field value is nearly unmatched at any position this offseason. At 6′6″, 320 pounds and only 26 years old, Haynesworth is the kind of defensive tackle that never sees the light of free agency. Expect the Titans to tag Haynesworth in order to continue negotiations on a long-term deal. It’s not out of the question the team would trade him, but not without significant value in return.

Dallas Cowboys

Option 1: OT Flozell Adams

Flozell Adams is an unrestricted free agent and could garner a tag if the team feels his services are indispensable. Adams is a 4-time Pro Bowler and played at an extremely high level in 2007. But at 32 years old (he’ll be 33 in May), he’s not someone that is really in line to get a long-term deal. If he’s unwilling to accept a 3-year deal; the team may have no choice but to tag him.

Option 2: S Ken Hamlin

Ken Hamlin is the best safety available in free agency and helped solidify a former weak spot this year. Franchising a safety is less of an economic burden than tackle; but it’s arguably easier to replace a safety via the draft than it is to find another offensive book end.

New York Giants

The Giants are unlikely to use the tag designations this offseason. Their only major free agents (Gibril Wilson, Reggie Torbor and Kawika Mitchell) are worthy of contract extensions but it would be difficult to justify paying any of them money that equates to the best at their respective positions.

Philadelphia Eagles

TE L.J. Smith

The Eagles have assigned the franchise tag designation to L.J. Smith; guaranteeing him $4.5mm this season (if he signs the tender). Although Smith was injured for much of the 2007 season, tagging him makes imminent sense given the lack of attractive alternatives in free agency. The Eagles get a chance to evaluate Smith before deciding whether to extend him long-term, and in turn Smith gets top 5 money despite a disappointing 2007 season. A win/win.

Washington Redskins

Much like the Giants, it’s unlikely the Redskins will use their tag designations this offseason. The Redskins have no marquee free agents that would justify the financial commitment, and happen to be the only team projected to be signficantly over the salary cap entering free agency.

Quarterbacks (QB)

• Tom Brady, New England
• Peyton Manning, Indianapolis
• Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh

Snub Alert = NIL: They’re 1-2-3 in passing TDs and passer rating in the AFC, and are all in position to lead their teams to division titles. The AFC QB situation was top heavy this year, as Derek Anderson and David Garrard were also deserving; but not at the expense of the three selections.

Running Backs (RB)

• LaDainian Tomlinson, San Diego
• Willie Parker, Pittsburgh
• Joseph Addai, Indianapolis

Snub Alert = Willis McGahee & Jamal Lewis: I keep hearing about Fred Taylor’s “Pro Bowl snub” and I’m just not seeing it. Sure, he’s averaging 5.1 yards per rush but is only 14th in yards from scrimmage with a meager 4 TDs. The real snubs were a pair of AFC North runners. McGahee has almost as many yards from scrimmage as Willie Parker but 4x the TDs (8 vs. 2) while Jamal Lewis is 9th in the league in yards with a better YPC (4.3) than either Parker or Addai. Lewis has 11 TDs to Parker’s 2.

Fullback (FB)

• Lorenzo Neal, San Diego

Snub Alert = NIL: The only snub alert is the fact that the Pro Bowl roster requires a “fullback” in the first place. The sooner they abandon the requirement (many teams don’t use a traditional fullback anymore), the better.

Wide Receivers (WR)

• Randy Moss, New England
• Reggie Wayne, Indianapolis
• Braylon Edwards, Cleveland
• T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Cincinnati

Snub Alert = Wes Welker, Brandon Marshall & ‘Ocho Cinco’: I personally think the AFC WR selections are spot on, but a case could be made for Welker (96 catches, 9 TDs), Marshall (1,136 yards, 6 TDs) and Chad Johnson (1,265 yards, 6 TDs), too. Unfortunately for those three, it has been a historic year for WR production with Moss (19 TDs), Edwards (13 TDs) and Housh (11 TDs) all putting up huge numbers while Wayne is 2nd in the AFC in yards with an impressive 9 TDs while emerging as the go-to receiver for Peyton Manning in Marvin Harrison’s absence.

Tight End (TE)

• Antonio Gates, San Diego
• Tony Gonzalez, Kansas City

Snub Alert = Kellen Winslow, Jr.: Statistically Winslow and Gonzalez are close enough that one can’t argue Tony G doesn’t deserve to backup Gates (who is clearly the best in the business); but WATCHING them this year, I think the nod should’ve gone to Winslow. Gonzalez is having the quietest “big” season from a tight end in years, at least from this fan’s perspective.

Offensive Line

• Matt Light, New England (T)
• Jason Peters, Buffalo (T)
• Jonathan Ogden, Baltimore (T)
• Alan Faneca, Pittsburgh (G)
• Logan Mankins, New England (G)
• Kris Dielman, San Diego (G)
• Jeff Saturday, Indianapolis (C)
• Dan Koppen, New England (C)

Snub Alert = Joe Thomas (T), Eric Steinbach (G) & Michael Roos (T): You can argue that the Patriots line is greater than the sum of its parts; but for as long as the Pro Bowl has been around, dominant teams have been afforded multiple lineman on the roster. I’m less bothered by the trio of Patriots as I am the presence of Jon Ogden. Sure, he may be a Hall of Famer but he’s been an absolute shell of himself this year and his presence keeps two young deserving tackles, Roos and Thomas, off the roster. Similarly, Eric Steinbach has mauled people and been worth every penny Cleveland paid him; there is room for him on this roster over any of the guards selected.

Agree or Disagree? Who would you have made a case for?

Quarterbacks (QB)

• Brett Favre, Green Bay
• Matt Hasselbeck, Seattle
• Tony Romo, Dallas

Snub Alert = NIL: Hard to make a case for any other NFC QBs. All three players have great stats and have guided their teams to division crowns. 

Running Backs (RB)

• Adrian Peterson, Minnesota
• Marion Barber, Dallas
• Brian Westbrook, Philadelphia

Snub Alert = Clinton “Kid Bro Sweets” Portis: Brian Westbrook leads all NFL runners with 1,896 yards from scrimmage and Adrian Peterson is 3rd (behind LT) despite missing a few games; but the selection of Marion Barber (19th in yards from scrimmage, 11 TDs) over Clinton Portis (6th in yards/scrimmage, 8 TDs) is worth noting. Given the Cowboys’ success and Barber’s better yards per rush; I think it was the right choice but Portis could’ve justified a nod and I wouldn’t have questioned it.

Fullback (FB)

• Tony Richardson, Minnesota

Snub Alert = NIL: The only snub alert is the fact that the Pro Bowl roster requires a “fullback” in the first place. The sooner they abandon the requirement (many teams don’t use a traditional fullback anymore), the better.

Wide Receivers (WR)

• Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona
• Terrell Owens, Dallas
• Torry Holt, St. Louis
• Donald Driver, Green Bay

Snub Alert = Marques Colston, Plaxico Burress & Greg Jennings: No disrespect to Torry Holt and Donald Driver, but neither deserved a Pro Bowl nod this year. Marques Colston was unquestionably snubbed (87 recs/1092 yards/9 TDs) while Burress and Jennings (10 TDs and 12 TDs, respectively) have both been more impactful than Driver this year.

Tight End (TE)

• Jason Witten, Dallas
• Chris Cooley, Washington

Snub Alert = NIL: Witten and Cooley have been, far and away, the two most deserving tight ends in the NFC all season.

Offensive Line

• Flozell Adams, Dallas (T)
• Walter Jones, Seattle (T)
• Chris Samuels, Washington (T)
• Leonard Davis, Dallas (G)
• Steve Hutchinson, Minnesota (G)
• Shawn Andrews, Philadelphia (G)
• Andre Gurode, Dallas (C)
• Matt Birk, Minnesota (C)

Snub Alert = Chad Clifton, Green Bay (T) and Chris Snee, New York (G): The offensive line selections are often joked about as being tenured (once you’re in, you’re in until you retire) and many of the same names appear predictably. I don’t have a ton of problems with the selections save for the omission of Chad Clifton, who has been the best lineman one of the NFC’s dominant offenses. Chris Snee, as much as it pains me to say, is more deserving this year than Big Cat Andrews, as well.

Agree or Disagree? Who would you have made a case for?

LaDainian Tomlinson is having another excellent season in San Diego; but it pales in comparison to his MVP season of a year ago. While it was impossible to expect Tomlinson to match last year’s output, few expected the Chargers offense as a unit to take a big step back; particularly with Norv Turner at the helm. But, amidst the Chargers up-and-down 2007, there is one player who is, yet again, having an astoundingly good year.

Antonio Gates is on pace for one of the best offensive seasons by a tight end in NFL history.

Through 11 games:

• 60 receptions
• 834 yards
• 13.9 yards per catch
• 8 touchdowns
• 131.4 fantasy points

If Gates maintains his current pace, he’ll finish with:

• 87 receptions
• 1,213 yards
• 13.9 yards per catch
• 12 touchdowns
• 191.1 fantasy points

Here is where those numbers would stand among the all-time single season marks:

• Receptions: Tied for 13th all-time
• Yards: 5th place
• TDs: Tied for 2nd place (Gates holds the single season record with 13 TDs in 2004)
• Fantasy Points: 3rd place

 Other Thoughts:

1. Gates is likely to become the 1st TE in NFL history with three (3) seasons of 10+ TD receptions
2. Gates will overtake Kellen Winslow for 10th all-time with 46 or more TDs at his current pace