Now that the NFL Draft is in the books, we are standing on the cusp of the NFL preseason. During the coming weeks, rookie mini-camps will grind into gear and hard-core fantasy owners will start the process of evaluating this year’s draft picks potential for “instant impact” during 2008. In redraft fantasy football leagues, one key requirement for the kind of production that fantasy owners crave is opportunity. A player like TE Martellus Bennett (a 2nd-round selection by Dallas) may have all the talent in the world, but his chances for a meaningful 2008 season in fantasy terms are very slight due to being buried on the depth chart behind All-Pro TE Jason Witten.

The below is a preliminary list of the top rookie prospects for redraft fantasy leagues, given their new NFL homes.

Rookie Running Backs

The running back position is where the fantasy gems among the rookies are most likely to be found. While it is true that for every Adrian Peterson (Minnesota) or Joseph Addai one can point at, there are also players like J.J. Arrington or Chris Perry who serve as a counter-examples, it is also true that running backs tend to make the quickest transition to playing at the NFL level. A fantasy owner is most likely to find an “instant impact” player among the rookie running backs in any given calendar year.

Jonathan Stewart is probably the best bet at running back to generate fantasy impact during his rookie season. He is the sort of running back that the Panthers’ coaching staff prefers, and they have been retooling their offensive line for a power running attack - Stewart fits the mold that Carolina is built to utilize. DeAngelo Williams simply isn’t the player the coaching staff wants to rely on as their #1 RB - he is better suited to a change-of-pace, 3rd-down role in their scheme. Stewart figures to have plenty of touches on the ball with the Panthers this year.

Darren McFadden is a boom-or-bust type prospect. Yes, he has the type of speed and top gear that make him a threat to go to the house on every down, and he projects to be the starter with the Raiders (assuming his contract negotiations go well and he avoids a JaMarcus Russell-type holdout scenario). However, there is a crowded RB stable in Oakland, with Justin Fargas coming off a 1000+ yard season - if McFadden struggles with the pro game, he may not get many chances to redeem himself.

Kevin Smith lands with the Lions, who really like his game and seem to be indicating that the starting job is his to lose during 2008. We’ll see if their actions match their draft-day rhetoric - but Tatum Bell hasn’t looked like the answer since he arrived in Detroit, and as of today, he is the only other back of note on the team. If Smith impresses in training camp it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him starting for the Lions in September.

Matt Forte comes into a by-committee backfield situation, with both Cedric Benson and Adrian Peterson grinding out 3.4 yards per carry last season. Peterson was far more productive than Benson in the passing game (51/420/0 receiving vs. 17/123/0) and actually led the team in total yardage and fantasy points at the RB position last year. Benson has greatly underperformed his draft slot (1st round -4th pick in 2005) and may find himself riding the pine if Forte proves that he outperform Benson during training camp.

Rashard Mendenhall is likely to be Willie Parker’s primary backup for this year, but given Parker’s difficulty at the goal-line last year (321/1316/2 rushing), Mendenhall could find a role as the Steelers’ goal-line back (Najeh Davenport gained 107/499/5 rushing and 18/184/2 as the Steelers’ big back/change of pace back last year). If Mendenhall seals the #2 job with Pittsburgh, he could have value in basic scoring leagues (any league where TD production is the primary scoring criteria).

Felix Jones joins fellow rookie Tashard Choice as the new backups to Marion Barber III. Barber looks set to carry the majority of the load for Dallas, but Jones’ outside speed will give him a shot to earn playing time as the 3rd down back/passing down back - depending on how quickly Jones picks up the Cowboys’ offense and learns to pick up the blitz.

Rookie Wide Receivers

Second to the running backs, rookie WRs occasionally step into the NFL and make fantasy owners’ seasons. The most obvious example of this phenomenon would be Randy Moss’s first incredible season (69/1313/17) with Minnesota (he was the #1 fantasy WR as a rookie) - Larry Fitzgerald’s 58/780/8 as a rookie was also pretty outstanding for a rookie WR (30th best fantasy WR during 2004). However, it is far more often the case that rookie WRs bust (especially in their first season of NFL action). The last time I fell hard for a rookie WR’s potential, I ended up having Rashaun Woods among my preseason top 36 fantasy prospects - only to watch him fail miserably at the NFL level. Now-a-days, it is my rule of thumb that exactly zero rookie WRs land among my top 40 or so fantasy prospects until they have proven their skills extensively in training camp and preseason games - and even then I tend to be conservative about drafting them early - I would urge fantasy owners to be very leery of rookie wideouts.

James Hardy appears to have landed in the best situation among the draftees, with a legitimate shot at capturing the #2 wide receiver position on the Buffalo Bills. Other than Lee Evans, the Bills’ WRs generated 1 receiving TD last year (Josh Reed was #2 in yardage with 51/578/0) - not exactly what the coaching staff was looking for, to say the least. However, don’t go overboard with your enthusiasm for Hardy - the Bills were 30th in the NFL when it came to passing offense, so his ceiling as the #2 WR (if he gets that far) is relatively low compared to a player on a franchise like New England.

DeSean Jackson figures to be in the mix in Philadelphia, but the team spreads the ball around quite a bit - the 2nd best receiver on the Eagles over the past two years failed to get over 800 yards receiving or score more than 5 times, and the players at WR3 and below are non-factors in fantasy terms.

Devin Thomas may challenge for playing time in Washington, but with a developing young QB in Jason Campbell and an entrenched #1 WR in Santana Moss combined with a high-scoring TE hogging red-zone chances (Chris Cooley has 6 or more TDs in each of his first 4 seasons) - Thomas will have significant obstacles to overcome before he starts putting up the kind of statistics that make fantasy owners excited.

Malcolm Kelly - see Devin Thomas above.

Jerome Simpson landed with Cincinnati while the Bengals are searching for a replacement WR3 - if he can wow the coaching staff in training camp and sew up the WR3 spot, he could put up decent numbers now and then during 2008.

Rookie Quarterbacks

Excepting Peyton Manning , the exception who proves the rule, no rookie QB has been a fantasy standout during recent memory - even Dan Marino took one season to get up to speed before exploding during his second campaign way back in 1984. Unless you are convinced that Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco or any of the other draftees this year are of the caliber of a Peyton Manning or a Dan Marino, you should probably pass on them during your redraft league’s annual draft.

Matt Ryan will likely get his chance to start during 2008, perhaps early on in the season if Chris Redman falters during training camp. Ryan is sure to suffer typical rookie growing pains once he does get into the lineup, so he probably won’t have any games worth mentioning until very late in the season, if then.

Joe Flacco may be the heir apparent in Baltimore, but he’s currently buried behind Kyle Boller and Troy Smith (last year’s draft pick at the position). The Ravens got burned the last time they rushed a QB into the starting lineup (witness Boller’s checkered career with Baltimore) - they aren’t likely to make the same mistake with Flacco. He’ll likely carry the clipboard after preseason, with occasional spot duty in blow out wins or losses.

Rookie Tight Ends

Rookie tight ends are very seldom worth drafting - Tony Gonzalez scored 2 TDs in his rookie campaign (33/368/2), as did Antonio Gates (24/389/2), as did the ultra-hyped rookie TE of 2007, Greg Olsen (39/391/2). The three above examples are actually best-case scenarios for the vast majority of rookie TEs - the position is very demanding at the pro level and it simply takes more than 1 training camp and regular season to absorb all the duties that are asked of a pro TE. Among the 2008 draftees, expect 300+ and 1-2 TDs to be a ceiling when you are crafting your projections.

New Seahawk John Carlson will battle Jeb Putzier for playing time during 2008, and could end up starting for Seattle sooner rather than later. He is the TE prospect who landed in the best situation (such as it is) from the fantasy perspective.

Dustin Keller arrives to the Jets via a first round pick, but he’ll have to earn his way into the starting lineup - solid-but-unspectacular Chris Baker has scored 4 TDs in 2 of the past 4 seasons, and posted 41/409/3 last year. Keller will have the opportunity to learn the position from Baker and another veteran TE, Bubba Franks, this season. Keller is a guy to watch as the year progresses - he might be worth a flyer in free agency late in the season (just before fantasy playoffs) if he manages to earn playing time during 2008.

The NFL Draft is an exciting time of year for football junkies, but it is just the beginning of a long process. Don’t let your draft weekend enthusiasm drown out your better judgement as you prepare your preliminary draft lists for 2008. We have yet to get an inkling who among the draftees will fulfill their promise, which ones will outperform expectations - and how many will go bust in their first season as a pro football players.

2.32: Phillip Merling, DE, Miami Dolphins

Pass rusher had some injury woes but was effective off the edge when healthy. Has the size (6′5″, 272 pounds) that Bill Parcells covets. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.33: Donnie Avery, WR, St. Louis Rams

Quite a surprise. The first WR off the board is a small, uber fast guy considered a mid round pick by most scouts. Hard to believe he can replace Isaac Bruce without a few years of seasoning. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.34: Devin Thomas, WR, Washington Redskins (via Oakland through Atlanta)

The Redskins draft the WR many expected to be first off the WR board. Devin Thomas only had one big year at Michigan but has great size (6′2″, 215 pounds) and can also help as a kickoff returner. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.35: Brandon Flowers, CB, Kansas City Chiefs

If Flowers ran a tenth of a second faster, he would’ve been a mid 1st rounder. Great choice for the rebuilding Chiefs. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.36: Jordy Nelson, WR, Green Bay Packers (via New York Jets)

Another surprising WR selection. Was WR really a need for Green Bay with Driver, Jennings and Jones on the roster? Should help on special teams right away. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.37: Curtis Lofton, LB, Atlanta Falcons

Tackling machine, ideally suited for the inside where he can flow downfield to the ball. Not someone good in space and must be put in the right scheme to succeed. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.38: John Carlson, TE, Seattle Seahawks (via Baltimore)

Mike Holmgren called this a need, and the ‘hawks felt Carlson was a perfect fit for their West Coast offense. Carlson put up big numbers with Brady Quinn under center, as a reminder. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.39: Chilo Rachal, OG, San Francisco 49ers

Rachal gets knocked for not being a great athlete, but he’s technically sound and has a mean streak. As long as he plays inside and isn’t asked to pull and extend to the 2nd level much, he could be a starter immediately. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.40: Tracy Porter, CB, New Orleans Saints

Ironic that the Saints draft a cornerback with the 40th pick; considering there were rumors all week that the 40th pick would be part of a package to acquire Eagles CB Lito Sheppard. Porter is good at tracking the ball but isn’t a sure tackler or much help supporting the run.

2.41: James Hardy, WR, Buffalo Bills

The Bills landed the top corner in the draft last round and, in my opinion, the best receiver in the draft at 2.41. Hardy is a big guy who isn’t afraid of contact. He goes up for the ball and runs good routes; which helps offset a lack of breakaway speed.

2.42: Eddie Royal, WR, Denver Broncos

Royal is one of a handful of receivers who also project as solid returner at the next level. At only 5′8″, 184 pounds, Royal will need to prove he can hold up as a receiver over the course of the season. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.43: Tyrell Johnson, S, Minnesota Vikings (via Carolina through Philadelphia)

Kenny Phillips has the bigger name, but Johnson may have the bigger game. The Vikes continue to bolster their defense with another solid young, physical player. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.44: Matt Forte, RB, Chicago Bears

I’m not crazy about Forte; I don’t believe he’s a special back nor was he the best back left on the board. However, Forte has his supporters and it’s not inconceivable he could earn the starting gig over Cedric Benson sooner rather than later.

2.45: Jordon Dizon, OLB, Detroit Lions

Dizon lacks ideal size and speed; but like many solid NFL linebackers before him, he just makes plays. He’s instinctive and a sound tackler; exactly the kind of guy Rod Marinelli can build around. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.46: Jerome Simpson, WR, Cincinnati Bengals

Further proof that beauty is in the eye of the beholder at WR this year. Simpson wasn’t close to the best WR prospect on the board, but clearly the Bengals felt otherwise. At least, this pick fills a need given the release of Chris Henry and concerns about Chad Johnson’s status.

2.47: Trevor Laws, DT, Philadelphia Eagles (via Minnesota)

The Eagles finally make a pick, and it’s clearly a “best player available” selection. Defensive tackle was hardly a major need, but Laws is a high character, high motor guy who will add depth to an already young tackle rotation.

2.48: Fred Davis, TE, Washington Redskins (via Houston through Atlanta)

The Redskins are committed to getting QB Jason Campbell weapons. First Devin Thomas and now a pass-receiving tight end a few picks later. Davis doesn’t project into an elite tight end, but the Redskins don’t need him to be given the presence of Chris Cooley.

2.49: DeSean Jackson, WR/KR, Philadelphia Eagles

Many Birds fans wouldn’t have complained if Jackson was the pick in the 1st round. So to trade down, grab a 2009 1st rounder as compensation and get DeSean anyway was a coup. He’s tiny (169 pounds) but is blazing fast and unstoppable in the open field. He instantly gives the Eagles the best returner they’ve had in 5 years.

2.50: Calais Campbell, DE, Arizona Cardinals

You don’t find many 6′8″, 280 pound ends; yet Campbell fell into the 2nd round because of an uneven 2007 season. He was a stud in 2006 and, as long as the Cards play him at the right position, should combine with free agent Clark Haggans to improve the Cards pass rush.

2.51: Malcolm Kelly, WR, Washington Redskins

Sure, he’s slower than you would like. But have teams watched this kid play? He’s a polished route runner, has great hands and excellent body control. Very reminiscent of the year Chad Johnson fell because of his slow 40-time; the Skins got a steal.

2.52: Quentin Groves, DE, Jacksonville Jaguars (via Tampa Bay)

The Jags have a stifling defense already, but they aren’t great at putting pressure on opposing QBs. Adding Quentin Groves in the 2nd after taking Derrick Harvey 8th overall goes a long way to changing the Jags pass rush. Groves character issues aside, this was a solid pick.

2.53: Limas Sweed, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers

Some scouts love Sweed, some see him as a bust. At 53rd overall, the Steelers aren’t risking a lot financially to find out if he’s the next Plaxico Burress. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.54: Jason Jones, DE, Tennessee Titans

Jones could replace Antwan Odom right away, but he’s a bit raw to expect that. Eventually the Titans see Jones as a capable 2-way end in their 4-3 defense. His skill set is more suited to defensive tackle, but his size projects him as an end.

2.55: Ray Rice, RB, Baltimore Ravens (via Seattle)

Ray Rice is a local product who was wildly productive as the main ball carrier for Rutgers. While he lacks prototypical size, his low center of gravity and style make him more than capable of being an every down back if needed.

2.56: Brian Brohm, QB, Green Bay Packers (via Cleveland)

Now that’s kind of surprising. Or is it? The Pack took Aaron Rodgers in the 1st when Brett Favre was under center, so why wouldn’t they take the most accurate QB prospect in the 2nd round given Rodgers inexperience? Worst case, he’s a backup for a few years. Best case, he outplays Rodgers and ends up starting in a year or two.

2.57: Chad Henne, QB, Miami Dolphins (via San Diego)

How about that? It looks like Jake Long may be blocking for Chad Henne for a few more years. Another smart pick. He could easily outplay Beck and McCown to win the job; at the very lesaet he’s a big armed, young backup for a good price.

2.58: Dexter Jackson, WR/KR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (via Jacksonville)

This was a reach pick. While Jackson is another potentially dangerous return man; he needs a lot of maturing as a route runner before he can reasonably play WR on a regular basis. Blistering speed (4.33) though and dangerous in the open field.

2.59: Mike Pollak, OG/C, Indianapolis Colts

A classic Colts pick. Their only 1st day pick and it’s a fundamentally sound center that they project as a starting offensive guard for now and possibly a replacement for Jeff Saturday later. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.60: Patrick Lee, DB, Green Bay Packers

A hard worker, Lee may someday start at corner but not for a few seasons. In the meantime, he can be a force on special teams and perhaps play nickel back particularly in run support situations. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.61: Martellus Bennett, TE, Dallas Cowboys

I like this pick more than most. For my money, Bennett was the top TE in this draft. He’s huge, is a good blocker who can become great, and should be a key red zone target given his height and willingness to go up for the ball. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.62: Terrence Wheatley, CB, New England Patriots

The Pats always seem to find value and this was no exception. Wheatley is a legitimate shutdown cover corner who, were it not for myriad injuries in college, would’ve been in the hunt for a top 15 selection. Either way, he’ll help the Pats on defense and special teams.

2.63: Terrell Thomas, CB, New York Giants

Thomas is the 217th USC Trojan to be drafted in the first two rounds (not really, just feels that way). If the Giants view him as a corner, I don’t like this pick. But if they’re going to try to convert him to safety; where his deficiencies can be obfuscated somewhat, the choice makes more sense.

The first real shocker of the draft. The Titans, with plenty of needs, take a running back that was projected as a 2nd rounder by almost everyone. RB Chris Johnson is a home run hitter; but for as special as his breakaway speed may be, he’s got lots of limitations which make him hard to project as a full-time starter down the road. The Titans got good productivity from Lendale White last year and drafted Chris Henry a season ago. Perhaps the Titans view Johnson’s kickoff ability as something notable.

Fantasy Impact: It just makes a muddy situation muddier. Lendale White is still probably the bellcow here, but now he’s got not one but two other young backs who can earn playing time.

RB Rashard Mendenhall was having a tough Day One; having been one of the obvious players to drop today. Thought to be the 2nd RB off the board by many, he comes off the board after McFadden, Stewart and Jones. Making matters worse for him, he’s joining a team that has a young franchise runner in place in Willie Parker. However, Parker isn’t the biggest guy and the Steelers have use for a backup of Mendenhall’s caliber.

Fantasy Impact: Parker got hurt last year and the Steelers didn’t really have an answer. This solves that worry and, also gives them a potential 20-carry back in a year or two depending on whether they want to commit financially to Parker a few years down the line. Given his size and running style, Mendenhall could play a key role in short yardage and at the goal line, which would somewhat diminish Willie Parker’s fantasy value.

Jerry Jones is a noted Arkansas alum and, because of that, most mock drafts had him taking RB Felix Jones with the 22nd pick. As it turns out, the mocks got it exactly right. Jones averaged more than 8 yards per carry playing as a key backup to Darren McFadden and has elite speed. The Cowboys will look for Jones to spell Marion Barber.

Fantasy Impact: As long as Marion Barber is healthy, Felix Jones won’t be a major fantasy force. But he is talented, has fresh legs and has an extra gear that Barber does not. In redrafts, Jones is no more than a late round pick; however dynasty owners may want to consider him particularly as a handcuff to Barber.

OL Branden Albert was a high riser over the last few months, as teams began to look at him more as a potential NFL tackle instead of offensive guard. Albert played guard primarily at the University of Virginia, but flourished when put at LT for a few games in place of the regular starter. Al Groh, a former NFL coach, endorsed Albert as a tackle and, he went from a potential late first rounder to a mid first rounder. The Chiefs have to be giddy because many pundits projected Albert to them with the 5th overall pick; yet they got him with the 15th by moving up and trading picks with Detroit.

Fantasy Impact: The Chiefs needed a lot of help and, so far, it looks like they MAY have landed the best offensive and defensive lineman in this draft. Albert will start on the Chiefs line, it’s just a matter of whether he lines up inside at guard or immediately earns a shot at tackle.

RB Jonathan Stewart becomes the 13th overall pick; a surprising selection in my view. While Stewart was considered a top-3 option at the RB position, he had turf toe surgery a few months ago and that likely put some teams off. As it turns out, the Panthers team doctor is the one who performed the surgery, so clearly they got a clean bill of health where other teams might not have. Stewart is a huge, power runner who can block and catch. There’s not much to dislike save for his injury questions.

Fantasy Impact: Wow, this is the first major fantasy shakeup. Yet again it appears that fantasy owners like DeAngelo Williams a lot more than the Panthers coaching staff. By selecting Stewart 13th overall, there’s no way you can safely project Williams as a fantasy stud this year. More likely, Williams and Stewart will share the carries in what amounts to a very run heavy offensive game plan.

RB Darren McFadden and the Raiders were a match made in most mock drafts. He’s a 6′1″, 211 pound runner who runs a 4.33; was there ANY chance Al Davis could pass on him? Ironically, the Raiders have many needs and the RB position wasn’t atop them. However, Davis covets elite, speedy offensive players and McFadden fits that bill.

Fantasy Impact: Darren McFadden will likely be the 1st pick in the majority of rookie dynasty drafts this year; and he certainly will be drafted in the first two or three rounds of redraft leagues, as long as he signs and gets into camp. The Raiders got a career year out of Justin Fargas last year but his contract makes him an excellent 2nd RB; much like the Vikings had with Chester Taylor after drafting Adrian Peterson.

Shaun Alexander was given his release today, after 8 years in Seattle. The writing had been on the wall for some time, as the Seahawks went out and signed not one, but two free agent runners this offseason: T.J. Duckett and Julius Jones. Alexander has been synonymous with the Seahawks under Mike Holmgren’s tenure.

Over a 5-year period (2001-2005), Alexander enjoyed one of the most dominant statistical runs in NFL history:

• 1,653 rushes
• 7,504 rushing yards
• 4.54 YPR
• 87 rush TDs
• 183 receptions
• 1,346 receiving yards
• 11 receiving TDs
• 1,473 fantasy points
• 3 Pro Bowls
• 1 All Pro
• 1 NFL MVP

Unfortunately things haven’t been the same since Alexander’s MVP season. Over the last two years, he’s missed 9 regular season games, averaged just 3.6 yards per rush (after never falling below 4.0 in any season prior to 2006), and failed to break the 1,000-yard mark.

So what now? Alexander has expressed an eagerness to test the free agent market for the first time in his career; and there’s little question he’ll have suitors. With the NFL draft looming, expect teams to consider Alexander after they see how their drafts unfold this weekend.

Assessing his options:

1. Sign with a contender
2. Sign with a team desperate for RB help
3. Find a team that fits both criteria

Is Alexander willing to take a backseat or, at the very least, accept a role as part of a committee? Are there any teams that could be considered a) contenders AND b) could possibly use Alexander as their main runner? Let’s take a look at all the teams that finished 0.500 or better in 2007 as a starting point:

• New England Patriots (16-0) — L. Maroney
• Dallas Cowboys (13-3) — M. Barber
• Green Bay Packers (13-3) — R. Grant
• Indianapolis Colts (13-3) — J. Addai
• Jacksonville Jaguars (11-5) — F. Taylor & M. Jones-Drew
• San Diego Chargers (11-5) — L. Tomlinson
• Cleveland Browns (10-6) — J. Lewis
• New York Giants (10-6) — B. Jacobs
• Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6) — W. Parker
• Seattle Seahawks (10-6) — Not applicable for obvious reasons
• Tennessee Titans (10-6) — L. White
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-7) — E. Graham & W. Dunn
• Washington Redskins (9-7) — C. Portis
• Arizona Cardinals (8-8) — E. James
• Houston Texans (8-8) — A. Green & C. Brown
• Minnesota Vikings (8-8) — C. Taylor & A. Peterson
• Philadelphia Eagles (8-8) — B. Westbrook

Realistically, there are three teams out of this group where Alexander could be the main ball-carrier without upsetting the apple cart too much. Of course, in the NFL where parity abounds, there are a number of teams with losing records last year that could contend this season; particularly if they had a better ground game. Here are the bottom ten teams last year in rushing yards:

• Kansas City Chiefs (32nd) – Larry Johnson is under contract, was hurt last year
• Detroit Lions (31st) – Definitely in the market for a RB; will they draft one?
• Chicago Bears (30th) — Benson isn’t guaranteed anything
• Arizona Cardinals (29th) – James is under contract, would Alexander be any better?
• New Orleans Saints (28th) — Bush is there, and McAllister says he’ll be back this season
• San Francisco 49ers (27th) – Frank Gore should be healthy
• Atlanta Falcons (26th) — Signed Michael Turner to a monster deal
• St. Louis Rams (25th) – Steven Jackson is healthy
• Cincinnati Bengals (24th) — Need a runner, unless Rudi Johnson finds a fountain of youth

OK, so where does that leave us? Alexander is very likely going to have to accept a committee situation unless Chicago, Cincinnati or Detroit are willing to commit to him.

Where do YOU think Alexander will land?

That didn’t take long…

…just a day after signing Michael “The Burner” Turner to a monster free agent contract, the Falcons released Warrick Dunn.

The 33-year old tailback will have little trouble finding work elsewhere; particularly if he’s willing to accept a role as a backup and situational contributor on a contending team.

Possible Landing Spots?

It’s never too early to handicap where Dunn might land, here are five teams that make imminent sense in our minds:

1. Indianapolis Colts — The Colts don’t have a reliable backup on the roster, and Dunn would be a perfect complement to Joseph Addai. He likely would accept a lesser role on the Colts because they are among a handful of Super Bowl contenders. Given his prior relationship with Tony Dungy when they were in Tampa Bay; this situation almost seems too logical to be true. Update: OK, it seems I may have sold Kenton Keith short. He had a solid 2007 season with 533 yards (4.4 YPC), 13 receptions and 4 total TDs.
2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Jon Gruden is no stranger to veteran contributors and Dunn has strong ties to the Tampa area from his days as a Buc. The Bucs would probably have to make a bigger financial commitment to Dunn than the Colts would, simply because of the less certain playoff outlook.
3. Detroit Lions – Kevin Jones may not be ready for the start of the season, and the Lions have virtually no one ready to step in and play. This is one of the few places Dunn could conceivably earn big playing time; and HC Rod Marinelli is a Dunn fan from their days in Tampa.
4. Dallas Cowboys — The Cowboys never seem to shy away from aging veterans and Jerry Jones could easily view Dunn as a solid backup and complement to Marion Barber; who is slated for a heavier workload in 2008 with the departure of Julius Jones.
5. Tennessee Titans — Pairing Dunn with LenDale White could be an interesting one-two punch. Dunn’s veteran presence, work ethic and his commitment to blocking would serve as great examples for White and fellow youngster Chris Henry. It’s unclear whether the Titans are open to adding someone 11 years into the league; but if they are, Dunn could be a nice two-year answer.

Where do you think Dunn will land? Do you think he’ll have any tangible fantasy value in 2008? Let’s hear your thoughts in our discussion forum.

Michael “The Burner” Turner has signed a 6-year, $34.5mm deal including $15mm in guaranteed money. Turner, easily the class of the free agent RB market, took a few days to sign with Atlanta but not because he was weighing other options. As far as we know, Turner’s only visit and offer came from the Falcons.

Turner (5′10″, 237 pounds, 25 years old) is a big back who can push the pile and drag defenders when he gets a head of steam. While not a pure speed merchant, he has a 2nd gear which is a rare thing for someone his size. Used sparingly as a backup to LaDainian Tomlinson, Turner has performed admirably in spot duty. Take a gander at Turner’s career numbers:

• 228 carries
• 1,257 yards
• 5.5 yards per carry
• 6 TDs
• 11 receptions
• 71 yards

In with Turner, Out with Dunn?

In an era when many teams are using two-back systems, expect Turner to serve as the Falcons main ball-carrier while Jerious Norwood logs 100-150 carries (ideally if both stay healthy). This signing all but ends Warrick Dunn’s career in Atlanta. A lot of people expected Norwood to overtake Dunn last year in attempts, but somehow the cagey veteran started 15 games and logged 227 carries. Unfortunately for Falcons fans, he averaged just 3.2 yards per carry.

Savvy fantasy owners understand that Turner isn’t going to average 5.5 yards per carry as a full-time back. However, it would be shocking if he doesn’t put up much better per carry numbers than Dunn has of late. Consider that Norwood has averaged 6.2 yards per carry in his two seasons; so that Falcons line isn’t incapable of run blocking.

Where Turner will have to prove himself is as a red zone threat and a receiver; two critical parts to any fantasy runner’s success. Turner only has six touchdowns in four seasons. Yes, he had to play behind the league’s highest scoring RB, but still, we don’t know how good Turner can be in short yardage situations. In the receiving department, he’ll have to improve on his current scouting reports, or else look for Norwood to notch most of the receptions out of the backfield.

What should we expect in 2008?

I’ll throw out 250 carries for 1,100-1,200 yards and 7-9 TDs as a baseline. We’ll tweak his projections and put more meat on the bones later in the offseason; once we have a better picture of the rest of the team’s makeup. The Falcons need to implement a new offensive system and probably have moves to make in free agency and the draft to secure the offensive line. Once those moves have happened (or not), we’ll see whether Turner is going to live up to the enormous fantasy billing he’ll receiver from a lot of people this summer.

No position gets fantasy football owners riled up like the running back spot. It’s where our fantasy bread is buttered so to speak; or at least that’s the case in most seasons. Conventional wisdom is that free agent RBs aren’t an ideal approach; as teams prefer to build via the draft. The heavy workload limits most RBs optimum years; and it’s difficult to generate value once a veteran RB gets ready for his big payday.

While building through the draft will remain a core tenet, signing (or trading for) the right tailback can still yield results. Last season, Jamal Lewis (Cleveland) and Willis McGahee (Baltimore) both finished as top-8 fantasy backs, for example. And let’s not forget the huge role Ryan Grant played for Green Bay; Grant was acquired late in the preseason from the Giants via trade.

Two potentially attractive options are already off the table:

• Jamal Lewis signed a 3-year contract to remain with the Browns
• Justin Fargas re-signed with the Raiders with a 3-year contract

But the cupboard isn’t completely bare; there are a number of former 1,000-yard rushers available, a former Heisman Trophy winner and, possibly, a former NFL MVP.

The Top Running Backs on the Market

1. Marion Barber (6′0″, 221 pounds, 24 years old) — Barber is a restricted free agent and his agent is already negotiating a long-term extension with the Cowboys. But Barber is such a talent that it’s not inconceivable another team would be willing to give him big dollars and part with draft picks to sign him. Barber emerged two seasons ago sharing time with Julius Jones, and took over a larger role as the 2007 wore on. He’s scored a whopping 24 rushing TDs in 339 carries over the last two season, and added 67 catches and four receiving TDs. Expect Dallas to lock him up and be the feature runner in 2008.
2. Michael Turner (5′10″, 237 pounds, 25 years old) — Michael “The Burner” Turner has been waiting for his chance. It’s not easy being a backup to the league’s best runner; particularly one as durable as LaDainian Tomlinson. Turner is, by far, the most intriguing unrestricted free agent runner on the market, and some team will sign him with an eye toward making him their new starter. He’ll have a lot to prove, having never logged more than 80 carries in a season, scored more than 3 TDs, or caught more than 4 passes; there are questions he must answer if he’s going to land a monster deal.
3. Julius Jones (5′10″, 208 pounds, 26 years old) – Jones’ play fell off considerably last year (588 yards, 3.6 yards-per-carry, 2 TDs) but should generate considerable interest in free agency. He’s a high character player with more than 50 games under his belt as a starter. He’s never been given a chance to carry the ball 300+ times, yet rushed for more than 1,000-yards in 2006 and nearly did the same in 2005. While not a world beater, Jones would be an upgrade for a number of teams and would make a fantastic part of a committee.
4. DeShaun Foster (6′0″, 222 pounds, 28 years old) — Foster has been the bane of fantasy owners for years; yet the Carolina Panthers seemingly disagreed with us. Yet, after six seasons, the Panthers released Foster and will finally hand the ball over to D’Angelo Williams. Despite logging a career high 247 carries in 2007, Foster failed to run for 900 yards. He’s never run for more than 897 yards in the season, nor rushed for more than 3 TDs. However, Foster’s enticing combination of size and speed are likely to earn him another shot at competing for a starting gig; much to the dismay of fantasy owners everywhere.
5. Chris Brown (6′3″, 220 pounds, 26 years old) — Brown sought free agent riches last year and found no takers; so he came back to Tennessee with his tail between his legs. A year later, he finds himself in a similar position as the Titans are set with youngsters Lendale White and Chris Henry. Brown is a big back capable of racking up impressive stats when healthy and motivated. In just 102 carries last year, he scored 5 TDs and ran for 462 yards. Don’t expect Brown to land big guaranteed dollars, but some team will give him a one or two-year deal with incentives, for sure.
6. Derrick Ward (5′11″, 228 pounds, 27 years old) – Ward played a huge role for the Giants last year, particularly while starter Brandon Jacobs was nursing injuries. He’s a big back who runs hard, but brings an added dimension as a receiver that many backs his size can’t. Ward broke his fibula late in the year but is healthy now, and could be an interesting and inexpensive pickup for a team looking to add depth. The Giants have already begun negotiating with Ward’s agent; so he may be off the market before other teams get a chance to make their pitch.
7. Tatum Bell (5′11″, 213 pounds, 26 years old) – What to make of Tatum Bell? He could never win over Mike Shanahan in Denver, and seemed to land in the perfect situation last year in Detroit. Yet, he quickly fell out of favor despite the Lions lack of any stellar alternative. Now, he’s a free agent looking to prove himself yet again. Bell has his fans; who point toward his 4.8 per carry average and straight-line speed. His critics point toward his fumbling tendencies, his subpar receiving skills and lack of explosive scoring history. Will some team sign Bell as a starter? Probably not, but he’ll land somewhere and may yet be one major injury away from another shot at major playing time.
8. Michael Pittman (6′0″, 228 pounds, 32 years old) – Pittman’s days as a primary ball-carrier are long gone (were they ever there?) but he would be a valuable addition to a contending team for a number of reasons. One, he’s a punishing blocker and excels in blitz pickup. Two, despite his age, he’s in phenomenal shape. Three, Pittman is an excellent receiver (he’s caught 70+ balls twice and averaged more than 40 receptions a season in Tampa).

The Top Fullbacks on the Market

Fullbacks aren’t a position that generates a ton of interest among fantasy leaguers, but a good one can really help solidify an offensive attack; particularly if they are equally adept at lead blocking for their tailback as well as pass protecting. The top free agent fullback, Greg Jones, was re-signed by Jacksonville but there are still a few other FBs out there who have a shot at landing a starting gig.

1. Tony Richardson (6′1″, 238 pounds, 36 years old) – Richardson is going to turn 37 years old this season; which is an amazing feat for any NFL player much less one who plays such a demanding position. The Vikings are going in another direction this season, but Richardson hopes to latch on with another team. If healthy, he can still lay the wood for a run-oriented attack.
2. Brad Hoover (6′0″, 245 pounds, 31 years old) — Hoover has been a mainstay in Carolina and, in addition to above average blocking ability, he is decent receiver. Expect Hoover to garner interest from multiple teams and ultimately sign a 2- or 3-year deal as a starter.
3. Dan Kreider (5′11″, 255 pounds, 30 years old) — Kreider tore his ACL in November and is still rehabbing. It’s possible he remains with Pittsburgh although it’s unlikely they will re-sign him until he can vet his health. If the Steelers decide to let him go, Kreider would generate interest late in the offseason once he’s able to practice and show off his skill set. When healthy, he’s a punishing straight line blocker.

The (Near) Complete List

Few positions will have as much meaning when the fantasy season gets underway. In addition to the players mentioned, expect a number of other veterans to become available once teams begin making roster cuts. There are rumors that Shaun Alexander may even be released; and it’s possible other veterans like Edgerrin James and Rudi Johnson could hit the market depending on how their teams look after the April draft. If you’d like to discuss the free agent outlook for running backs in greater detail, please visit our Shark Pool forum. We look forward to your participation!

Sometimes it pays to take chances.

Last year, Jamal Lewis opted for a one-year deal to play in Cleveland after spending seven seasons with rival Baltimore. The move was initially met with skepticism as Lewis’ best days appeared to be behind him, and the Browns seemed to have bigger needs than an aging back. But Lewis took an incentive-laden 1-year deal and took it upon himself to prove the critics wrong.

And did he ever…

• 15 games played
• 1,304 yards [his best since 2003]
• 4.4 yards per rush [best since 2003]
• 30 receptions [3rd best]
• 248 receiving yards [best since 2002]
• 1,552 yards from scrimmage [best since 2003]
• 11 TDs [best since 2003]
• RB6 fantasy ranking [best since 2003]

Most importantly, Lewis was a consistent factor in a surprising 10-6 Cleveland team; which appears to be on the right track in no small part because of Lewis’ running and the emerging play of the resurgent offensive line.

This week, Lewis was rewarded with a new 3-year deal (terms not yet disclosed) that will keep him in Cleveland through 2010.

Related Blogs:

• Jamal Lewis: Goes for double or nothing and wins

Interesting comments in the Denver Post from Broncos head coach Mike Shanahan regarding the future of RB Selvin Young:

Selvin Young is ideal for 10 to 15 carries a game, but Shanahan said he’s not a 20-to-25 carry back.

“No, definitely not,” Shanahan said. “Any time a guy’s been hurt as many times as he did, you know that there’s no possible way he can carry the ball 20, 25 times a game. The body just won’t hold up. He went down too many times this year. But you are looking at a guy that you know has big-play potential.”

Not really a surprise, but given the struggles of Travis Henry this season, it seems a foregone conclusion that Denver will ONCE AGAIN be looking for someone new to carry the load at the RB position. It was Young, not Henry, who led the Broncos in rushing this season, marking the FIFTH CONSECUTIVE season that someone different topped Denver’s RB ledger:

It’s hard not to notice the diminishing returns the Broncos have gotten from their lead rusher since Clinton Portis’ trade. This year Travis Henry was supposed to erase the need for a committee approach, but nagging injuries and legal concerns regarding a possible failed drug test curtailed a strong start to the season.

Will Henry be back and, if so, provide the 1,400+ yards we forecast for him in 2007? According to the Post article, only if he’s willing to take a significant pay cut. With so many mouths to feed, and a history of financial problems, somehow I wonder if Henry will be willing to do that.

Prior to the start of the 2006 season, Jamal Lewis returned to the Baltimore Ravens on a one-year deal. Despite rushing for 2,000 yards a few seasons before, Lewis had seen relatively no interest in free agency and returned, hat in hand, to the team that wouldn’t commit to him. Of course, his injuries, lack of conditioning and jail term all played a role. Lewis made a bet that his one-year deal would lead to free agent riches; but then he posted the following numbers:

• 314 carries
• 1,132 yards
• 3.6 yards per rush
• 9 rushing TDs
• 18 receptions
• 115 receiving yards

Those numbers weren’t horrible, but they were hardly the stuff of an elite franchise runner and, as  a result, Lewis entered last offseason in a similar position. Many teams wondered if his best days were behind him. He found a home in division rival Cleveland, thanks to GM Phil Savage (who scouted Lewis while a personnel executive in Baltimore); but again only for a 1-year deal.

WHAT A DIFFERENCE A SEASON MAKES

The Browns are on the verge of a potential playoff berth and Jamal Lewis has enjoyed a resurgent season:

• 14 games
• 272 carries
• 1,176 yards
• 4.3 yards per rush
• 9 TDs
• 29 receptions
• 247 yards receiving
• 2 receiving TDs

Lewis posted his best yardage, yards per rush, TDs and receiving numbers since his magical 2,000-yard season in 2003. As a result? He will either sign a long-term deal to stay in Cleveland OR find himself a new home with a big upfront guarantee.  Regardless of what you think of Lewis as a person or player, you have to give him credit for having enough confidence in his own abilities to play for a one-year deal in consecutive years. Looks like the 2nd time was the charm.

Quarterbacks (QB)

• Tom Brady, New England
• Peyton Manning, Indianapolis
• Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh

Snub Alert = NIL: They’re 1-2-3 in passing TDs and passer rating in the AFC, and are all in position to lead their teams to division titles. The AFC QB situation was top heavy this year, as Derek Anderson and David Garrard were also deserving; but not at the expense of the three selections.

Running Backs (RB)

• LaDainian Tomlinson, San Diego
• Willie Parker, Pittsburgh
• Joseph Addai, Indianapolis

Snub Alert = Willis McGahee & Jamal Lewis: I keep hearing about Fred Taylor’s “Pro Bowl snub” and I’m just not seeing it. Sure, he’s averaging 5.1 yards per rush but is only 14th in yards from scrimmage with a meager 4 TDs. The real snubs were a pair of AFC North runners. McGahee has almost as many yards from scrimmage as Willie Parker but 4x the TDs (8 vs. 2) while Jamal Lewis is 9th in the league in yards with a better YPC (4.3) than either Parker or Addai. Lewis has 11 TDs to Parker’s 2.

Fullback (FB)

• Lorenzo Neal, San Diego

Snub Alert = NIL: The only snub alert is the fact that the Pro Bowl roster requires a “fullback” in the first place. The sooner they abandon the requirement (many teams don’t use a traditional fullback anymore), the better.

Wide Receivers (WR)

• Randy Moss, New England
• Reggie Wayne, Indianapolis
• Braylon Edwards, Cleveland
• T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Cincinnati

Snub Alert = Wes Welker, Brandon Marshall & ‘Ocho Cinco’: I personally think the AFC WR selections are spot on, but a case could be made for Welker (96 catches, 9 TDs), Marshall (1,136 yards, 6 TDs) and Chad Johnson (1,265 yards, 6 TDs), too. Unfortunately for those three, it has been a historic year for WR production with Moss (19 TDs), Edwards (13 TDs) and Housh (11 TDs) all putting up huge numbers while Wayne is 2nd in the AFC in yards with an impressive 9 TDs while emerging as the go-to receiver for Peyton Manning in Marvin Harrison’s absence.

Tight End (TE)

• Antonio Gates, San Diego
• Tony Gonzalez, Kansas City

Snub Alert = Kellen Winslow, Jr.: Statistically Winslow and Gonzalez are close enough that one can’t argue Tony G doesn’t deserve to backup Gates (who is clearly the best in the business); but WATCHING them this year, I think the nod should’ve gone to Winslow. Gonzalez is having the quietest “big” season from a tight end in years, at least from this fan’s perspective.

Offensive Line

• Matt Light, New England (T)
• Jason Peters, Buffalo (T)
• Jonathan Ogden, Baltimore (T)
• Alan Faneca, Pittsburgh (G)
• Logan Mankins, New England (G)
• Kris Dielman, San Diego (G)
• Jeff Saturday, Indianapolis (C)
• Dan Koppen, New England (C)

Snub Alert = Joe Thomas (T), Eric Steinbach (G) & Michael Roos (T): You can argue that the Patriots line is greater than the sum of its parts; but for as long as the Pro Bowl has been around, dominant teams have been afforded multiple lineman on the roster. I’m less bothered by the trio of Patriots as I am the presence of Jon Ogden. Sure, he may be a Hall of Famer but he’s been an absolute shell of himself this year and his presence keeps two young deserving tackles, Roos and Thomas, off the roster. Similarly, Eric Steinbach has mauled people and been worth every penny Cleveland paid him; there is room for him on this roster over any of the guards selected.

Agree or Disagree? Who would you have made a case for?

Quarterbacks (QB)

• Brett Favre, Green Bay
• Matt Hasselbeck, Seattle
• Tony Romo, Dallas

Snub Alert = NIL: Hard to make a case for any other NFC QBs. All three players have great stats and have guided their teams to division crowns. 

Running Backs (RB)

• Adrian Peterson, Minnesota
• Marion Barber, Dallas
• Brian Westbrook, Philadelphia

Snub Alert = Clinton “Kid Bro Sweets” Portis: Brian Westbrook leads all NFL runners with 1,896 yards from scrimmage and Adrian Peterson is 3rd (behind LT) despite missing a few games; but the selection of Marion Barber (19th in yards from scrimmage, 11 TDs) over Clinton Portis (6th in yards/scrimmage, 8 TDs) is worth noting. Given the Cowboys’ success and Barber’s better yards per rush; I think it was the right choice but Portis could’ve justified a nod and I wouldn’t have questioned it.

Fullback (FB)

• Tony Richardson, Minnesota

Snub Alert = NIL: The only snub alert is the fact that the Pro Bowl roster requires a “fullback” in the first place. The sooner they abandon the requirement (many teams don’t use a traditional fullback anymore), the better.

Wide Receivers (WR)

• Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona
• Terrell Owens, Dallas
• Torry Holt, St. Louis
• Donald Driver, Green Bay

Snub Alert = Marques Colston, Plaxico Burress & Greg Jennings: No disrespect to Torry Holt and Donald Driver, but neither deserved a Pro Bowl nod this year. Marques Colston was unquestionably snubbed (87 recs/1092 yards/9 TDs) while Burress and Jennings (10 TDs and 12 TDs, respectively) have both been more impactful than Driver this year.

Tight End (TE)

• Jason Witten, Dallas
• Chris Cooley, Washington

Snub Alert = NIL: Witten and Cooley have been, far and away, the two most deserving tight ends in the NFC all season.

Offensive Line

• Flozell Adams, Dallas (T)
• Walter Jones, Seattle (T)
• Chris Samuels, Washington (T)
• Leonard Davis, Dallas (G)
• Steve Hutchinson, Minnesota (G)
• Shawn Andrews, Philadelphia (G)
• Andre Gurode, Dallas (C)
• Matt Birk, Minnesota (C)

Snub Alert = Chad Clifton, Green Bay (T) and Chris Snee, New York (G): The offensive line selections are often joked about as being tenured (once you’re in, you’re in until you retire) and many of the same names appear predictably. I don’t have a ton of problems with the selections save for the omission of Chad Clifton, who has been the best lineman one of the NFC’s dominant offenses. Chris Snee, as much as it pains me to say, is more deserving this year than Big Cat Andrews, as well.

Agree or Disagree? Who would you have made a case for?

Yeah…this was the way we all expected things to play out:

Top 50 Fantasy RBs through Week 14