Now that the NFL Draft is in the books, we are standing on the cusp of the NFL preseason. During the coming weeks, rookie mini-camps will grind into gear and hard-core fantasy owners will start the process of evaluating this year’s draft picks potential for “instant impact” during 2008. In redraft fantasy football leagues, one key requirement for the kind of production that fantasy owners crave is opportunity. A player like TE Martellus Bennett (a 2nd-round selection by Dallas) may have all the talent in the world, but his chances for a meaningful 2008 season in fantasy terms are very slight due to being buried on the depth chart behind All-Pro TE Jason Witten.

The below is a preliminary list of the top rookie prospects for redraft fantasy leagues, given their new NFL homes.

Rookie Running Backs

The running back position is where the fantasy gems among the rookies are most likely to be found. While it is true that for every Adrian Peterson (Minnesota) or Joseph Addai one can point at, there are also players like J.J. Arrington or Chris Perry who serve as a counter-examples, it is also true that running backs tend to make the quickest transition to playing at the NFL level. A fantasy owner is most likely to find an “instant impact” player among the rookie running backs in any given calendar year.

Jonathan Stewart is probably the best bet at running back to generate fantasy impact during his rookie season. He is the sort of running back that the Panthers’ coaching staff prefers, and they have been retooling their offensive line for a power running attack - Stewart fits the mold that Carolina is built to utilize. DeAngelo Williams simply isn’t the player the coaching staff wants to rely on as their #1 RB - he is better suited to a change-of-pace, 3rd-down role in their scheme. Stewart figures to have plenty of touches on the ball with the Panthers this year.

Darren McFadden is a boom-or-bust type prospect. Yes, he has the type of speed and top gear that make him a threat to go to the house on every down, and he projects to be the starter with the Raiders (assuming his contract negotiations go well and he avoids a JaMarcus Russell-type holdout scenario). However, there is a crowded RB stable in Oakland, with Justin Fargas coming off a 1000+ yard season - if McFadden struggles with the pro game, he may not get many chances to redeem himself.

Kevin Smith lands with the Lions, who really like his game and seem to be indicating that the starting job is his to lose during 2008. We’ll see if their actions match their draft-day rhetoric - but Tatum Bell hasn’t looked like the answer since he arrived in Detroit, and as of today, he is the only other back of note on the team. If Smith impresses in training camp it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him starting for the Lions in September.

Matt Forte comes into a by-committee backfield situation, with both Cedric Benson and Adrian Peterson grinding out 3.4 yards per carry last season. Peterson was far more productive than Benson in the passing game (51/420/0 receiving vs. 17/123/0) and actually led the team in total yardage and fantasy points at the RB position last year. Benson has greatly underperformed his draft slot (1st round -4th pick in 2005) and may find himself riding the pine if Forte proves that he outperform Benson during training camp.

Rashard Mendenhall is likely to be Willie Parker’s primary backup for this year, but given Parker’s difficulty at the goal-line last year (321/1316/2 rushing), Mendenhall could find a role as the Steelers’ goal-line back (Najeh Davenport gained 107/499/5 rushing and 18/184/2 as the Steelers’ big back/change of pace back last year). If Mendenhall seals the #2 job with Pittsburgh, he could have value in basic scoring leagues (any league where TD production is the primary scoring criteria).

Felix Jones joins fellow rookie Tashard Choice as the new backups to Marion Barber III. Barber looks set to carry the majority of the load for Dallas, but Jones’ outside speed will give him a shot to earn playing time as the 3rd down back/passing down back - depending on how quickly Jones picks up the Cowboys’ offense and learns to pick up the blitz.

Rookie Wide Receivers

Second to the running backs, rookie WRs occasionally step into the NFL and make fantasy owners’ seasons. The most obvious example of this phenomenon would be Randy Moss’s first incredible season (69/1313/17) with Minnesota (he was the #1 fantasy WR as a rookie) - Larry Fitzgerald’s 58/780/8 as a rookie was also pretty outstanding for a rookie WR (30th best fantasy WR during 2004). However, it is far more often the case that rookie WRs bust (especially in their first season of NFL action). The last time I fell hard for a rookie WR’s potential, I ended up having Rashaun Woods among my preseason top 36 fantasy prospects - only to watch him fail miserably at the NFL level. Now-a-days, it is my rule of thumb that exactly zero rookie WRs land among my top 40 or so fantasy prospects until they have proven their skills extensively in training camp and preseason games - and even then I tend to be conservative about drafting them early - I would urge fantasy owners to be very leery of rookie wideouts.

James Hardy appears to have landed in the best situation among the draftees, with a legitimate shot at capturing the #2 wide receiver position on the Buffalo Bills. Other than Lee Evans, the Bills’ WRs generated 1 receiving TD last year (Josh Reed was #2 in yardage with 51/578/0) - not exactly what the coaching staff was looking for, to say the least. However, don’t go overboard with your enthusiasm for Hardy - the Bills were 30th in the NFL when it came to passing offense, so his ceiling as the #2 WR (if he gets that far) is relatively low compared to a player on a franchise like New England.

DeSean Jackson figures to be in the mix in Philadelphia, but the team spreads the ball around quite a bit - the 2nd best receiver on the Eagles over the past two years failed to get over 800 yards receiving or score more than 5 times, and the players at WR3 and below are non-factors in fantasy terms.

Devin Thomas may challenge for playing time in Washington, but with a developing young QB in Jason Campbell and an entrenched #1 WR in Santana Moss combined with a high-scoring TE hogging red-zone chances (Chris Cooley has 6 or more TDs in each of his first 4 seasons) - Thomas will have significant obstacles to overcome before he starts putting up the kind of statistics that make fantasy owners excited.

Malcolm Kelly - see Devin Thomas above.

Jerome Simpson landed with Cincinnati while the Bengals are searching for a replacement WR3 - if he can wow the coaching staff in training camp and sew up the WR3 spot, he could put up decent numbers now and then during 2008.

Rookie Quarterbacks

Excepting Peyton Manning , the exception who proves the rule, no rookie QB has been a fantasy standout during recent memory - even Dan Marino took one season to get up to speed before exploding during his second campaign way back in 1984. Unless you are convinced that Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco or any of the other draftees this year are of the caliber of a Peyton Manning or a Dan Marino, you should probably pass on them during your redraft league’s annual draft.

Matt Ryan will likely get his chance to start during 2008, perhaps early on in the season if Chris Redman falters during training camp. Ryan is sure to suffer typical rookie growing pains once he does get into the lineup, so he probably won’t have any games worth mentioning until very late in the season, if then.

Joe Flacco may be the heir apparent in Baltimore, but he’s currently buried behind Kyle Boller and Troy Smith (last year’s draft pick at the position). The Ravens got burned the last time they rushed a QB into the starting lineup (witness Boller’s checkered career with Baltimore) - they aren’t likely to make the same mistake with Flacco. He’ll likely carry the clipboard after preseason, with occasional spot duty in blow out wins or losses.

Rookie Tight Ends

Rookie tight ends are very seldom worth drafting - Tony Gonzalez scored 2 TDs in his rookie campaign (33/368/2), as did Antonio Gates (24/389/2), as did the ultra-hyped rookie TE of 2007, Greg Olsen (39/391/2). The three above examples are actually best-case scenarios for the vast majority of rookie TEs - the position is very demanding at the pro level and it simply takes more than 1 training camp and regular season to absorb all the duties that are asked of a pro TE. Among the 2008 draftees, expect 300+ and 1-2 TDs to be a ceiling when you are crafting your projections.

New Seahawk John Carlson will battle Jeb Putzier for playing time during 2008, and could end up starting for Seattle sooner rather than later. He is the TE prospect who landed in the best situation (such as it is) from the fantasy perspective.

Dustin Keller arrives to the Jets via a first round pick, but he’ll have to earn his way into the starting lineup - solid-but-unspectacular Chris Baker has scored 4 TDs in 2 of the past 4 seasons, and posted 41/409/3 last year. Keller will have the opportunity to learn the position from Baker and another veteran TE, Bubba Franks, this season. Keller is a guy to watch as the year progresses - he might be worth a flyer in free agency late in the season (just before fantasy playoffs) if he manages to earn playing time during 2008.

The NFL Draft is an exciting time of year for football junkies, but it is just the beginning of a long process. Don’t let your draft weekend enthusiasm drown out your better judgement as you prepare your preliminary draft lists for 2008. We have yet to get an inkling who among the draftees will fulfill their promise, which ones will outperform expectations - and how many will go bust in their first season as a pro football players.

2.32: Phillip Merling, DE, Miami Dolphins

Pass rusher had some injury woes but was effective off the edge when healthy. Has the size (6′5″, 272 pounds) that Bill Parcells covets. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.33: Donnie Avery, WR, St. Louis Rams

Quite a surprise. The first WR off the board is a small, uber fast guy considered a mid round pick by most scouts. Hard to believe he can replace Isaac Bruce without a few years of seasoning. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.34: Devin Thomas, WR, Washington Redskins (via Oakland through Atlanta)

The Redskins draft the WR many expected to be first off the WR board. Devin Thomas only had one big year at Michigan but has great size (6′2″, 215 pounds) and can also help as a kickoff returner. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.35: Brandon Flowers, CB, Kansas City Chiefs

If Flowers ran a tenth of a second faster, he would’ve been a mid 1st rounder. Great choice for the rebuilding Chiefs. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.36: Jordy Nelson, WR, Green Bay Packers (via New York Jets)

Another surprising WR selection. Was WR really a need for Green Bay with Driver, Jennings and Jones on the roster? Should help on special teams right away. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.37: Curtis Lofton, LB, Atlanta Falcons

Tackling machine, ideally suited for the inside where he can flow downfield to the ball. Not someone good in space and must be put in the right scheme to succeed. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.38: John Carlson, TE, Seattle Seahawks (via Baltimore)

Mike Holmgren called this a need, and the ‘hawks felt Carlson was a perfect fit for their West Coast offense. Carlson put up big numbers with Brady Quinn under center, as a reminder. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.39: Chilo Rachal, OG, San Francisco 49ers

Rachal gets knocked for not being a great athlete, but he’s technically sound and has a mean streak. As long as he plays inside and isn’t asked to pull and extend to the 2nd level much, he could be a starter immediately. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.40: Tracy Porter, CB, New Orleans Saints

Ironic that the Saints draft a cornerback with the 40th pick; considering there were rumors all week that the 40th pick would be part of a package to acquire Eagles CB Lito Sheppard. Porter is good at tracking the ball but isn’t a sure tackler or much help supporting the run.

2.41: James Hardy, WR, Buffalo Bills

The Bills landed the top corner in the draft last round and, in my opinion, the best receiver in the draft at 2.41. Hardy is a big guy who isn’t afraid of contact. He goes up for the ball and runs good routes; which helps offset a lack of breakaway speed.

2.42: Eddie Royal, WR, Denver Broncos

Royal is one of a handful of receivers who also project as solid returner at the next level. At only 5′8″, 184 pounds, Royal will need to prove he can hold up as a receiver over the course of the season. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.43: Tyrell Johnson, S, Minnesota Vikings (via Carolina through Philadelphia)

Kenny Phillips has the bigger name, but Johnson may have the bigger game. The Vikes continue to bolster their defense with another solid young, physical player. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.44: Matt Forte, RB, Chicago Bears

I’m not crazy about Forte; I don’t believe he’s a special back nor was he the best back left on the board. However, Forte has his supporters and it’s not inconceivable he could earn the starting gig over Cedric Benson sooner rather than later.

2.45: Jordon Dizon, OLB, Detroit Lions

Dizon lacks ideal size and speed; but like many solid NFL linebackers before him, he just makes plays. He’s instinctive and a sound tackler; exactly the kind of guy Rod Marinelli can build around. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.46: Jerome Simpson, WR, Cincinnati Bengals

Further proof that beauty is in the eye of the beholder at WR this year. Simpson wasn’t close to the best WR prospect on the board, but clearly the Bengals felt otherwise. At least, this pick fills a need given the release of Chris Henry and concerns about Chad Johnson’s status.

2.47: Trevor Laws, DT, Philadelphia Eagles (via Minnesota)

The Eagles finally make a pick, and it’s clearly a “best player available” selection. Defensive tackle was hardly a major need, but Laws is a high character, high motor guy who will add depth to an already young tackle rotation.

2.48: Fred Davis, TE, Washington Redskins (via Houston through Atlanta)

The Redskins are committed to getting QB Jason Campbell weapons. First Devin Thomas and now a pass-receiving tight end a few picks later. Davis doesn’t project into an elite tight end, but the Redskins don’t need him to be given the presence of Chris Cooley.

2.49: DeSean Jackson, WR/KR, Philadelphia Eagles

Many Birds fans wouldn’t have complained if Jackson was the pick in the 1st round. So to trade down, grab a 2009 1st rounder as compensation and get DeSean anyway was a coup. He’s tiny (169 pounds) but is blazing fast and unstoppable in the open field. He instantly gives the Eagles the best returner they’ve had in 5 years.

2.50: Calais Campbell, DE, Arizona Cardinals

You don’t find many 6′8″, 280 pound ends; yet Campbell fell into the 2nd round because of an uneven 2007 season. He was a stud in 2006 and, as long as the Cards play him at the right position, should combine with free agent Clark Haggans to improve the Cards pass rush.

2.51: Malcolm Kelly, WR, Washington Redskins

Sure, he’s slower than you would like. But have teams watched this kid play? He’s a polished route runner, has great hands and excellent body control. Very reminiscent of the year Chad Johnson fell because of his slow 40-time; the Skins got a steal.

2.52: Quentin Groves, DE, Jacksonville Jaguars (via Tampa Bay)

The Jags have a stifling defense already, but they aren’t great at putting pressure on opposing QBs. Adding Quentin Groves in the 2nd after taking Derrick Harvey 8th overall goes a long way to changing the Jags pass rush. Groves character issues aside, this was a solid pick.

2.53: Limas Sweed, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers

Some scouts love Sweed, some see him as a bust. At 53rd overall, the Steelers aren’t risking a lot financially to find out if he’s the next Plaxico Burress. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.54: Jason Jones, DE, Tennessee Titans

Jones could replace Antwan Odom right away, but he’s a bit raw to expect that. Eventually the Titans see Jones as a capable 2-way end in their 4-3 defense. His skill set is more suited to defensive tackle, but his size projects him as an end.

2.55: Ray Rice, RB, Baltimore Ravens (via Seattle)

Ray Rice is a local product who was wildly productive as the main ball carrier for Rutgers. While he lacks prototypical size, his low center of gravity and style make him more than capable of being an every down back if needed.

2.56: Brian Brohm, QB, Green Bay Packers (via Cleveland)

Now that’s kind of surprising. Or is it? The Pack took Aaron Rodgers in the 1st when Brett Favre was under center, so why wouldn’t they take the most accurate QB prospect in the 2nd round given Rodgers inexperience? Worst case, he’s a backup for a few years. Best case, he outplays Rodgers and ends up starting in a year or two.

2.57: Chad Henne, QB, Miami Dolphins (via San Diego)

How about that? It looks like Jake Long may be blocking for Chad Henne for a few more years. Another smart pick. He could easily outplay Beck and McCown to win the job; at the very lesaet he’s a big armed, young backup for a good price.

2.58: Dexter Jackson, WR/KR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (via Jacksonville)

This was a reach pick. While Jackson is another potentially dangerous return man; he needs a lot of maturing as a route runner before he can reasonably play WR on a regular basis. Blistering speed (4.33) though and dangerous in the open field.

2.59: Mike Pollak, OG/C, Indianapolis Colts

A classic Colts pick. Their only 1st day pick and it’s a fundamentally sound center that they project as a starting offensive guard for now and possibly a replacement for Jeff Saturday later. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.60: Patrick Lee, DB, Green Bay Packers

A hard worker, Lee may someday start at corner but not for a few seasons. In the meantime, he can be a force on special teams and perhaps play nickel back particularly in run support situations. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.61: Martellus Bennett, TE, Dallas Cowboys

I like this pick more than most. For my money, Bennett was the top TE in this draft. He’s huge, is a good blocker who can become great, and should be a key red zone target given his height and willingness to go up for the ball. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.62: Terrence Wheatley, CB, New England Patriots

The Pats always seem to find value and this was no exception. Wheatley is a legitimate shutdown cover corner who, were it not for myriad injuries in college, would’ve been in the hunt for a top 15 selection. Either way, he’ll help the Pats on defense and special teams.

2.63: Terrell Thomas, CB, New York Giants

Thomas is the 217th USC Trojan to be drafted in the first two rounds (not really, just feels that way). If the Giants view him as a corner, I don’t like this pick. But if they’re going to try to convert him to safety; where his deficiencies can be obfuscated somewhat, the choice makes more sense.

The Ravens moved from 1.08 all the way down to 1.26 (along with three other picks) but then moved back up to 1.18 in order to acquire QB Joe Flacco. Flacco is 6′6″ and 236 pounds, and played at D1-AA Delaware. His level of competition wasn’t up to snuff and he’s a big risk at 1.18; but this is consistent with rumors over the last few weeks that Baltimore viewed him as the 2nd best QB in the class behind Matt Ryan.

Fantasy Impact: Eventually Flacco could become the starter in Baltimore and, in turn, be a viable fantasy option. But he’s a small school guy with limited mobility; and it’s hard to believe the Ravens will put him under center immediately. This is a risky pick; but Ozzie Newsome has the credentials to give him the benefit of the doubt. Flacco may be a good fantasy QB, but it almost certainly won’t be until 2009 or 2010 at the earliest.

QB Matt Ryan was selected 3rd overall by the Atlanta Falcons. The strong armed B.C. quarterback is the antithesis of Michael Vick in virtually every way. Ryan is a pure pocket passer and, by all accounts, has a squeaky clean personal profile. Clearly this pick was meant to signify a catharsis for the Falcons after one of the most troubling seasons in recent memory a year ago.

Fantasy Impact: The Falcons obviously hope Ryan will be a perennial Pro Bowler and true franchise passer. But given the Falcons offensive line questions, and Ryan’s inexperience, we can’t be sure whether the Falcons will throw him right into the lineup or let him learn from the sidelines for a time. In dynasty leagues, Ryan should be the first QB off the board. In redraft leagues, he shouldn’t be considered for anything more than a backup in deep leagues and that’s only if he earns the starting job in training camp.

It’s hard to call yourself an NFL fan without acknowledging the omnipresent retirement talk surrounding Brett Favre the last few seasons. Whether it be a hasty press conference at a charity golf tournament to tell us he hasn’t decided yet, or the constant paralysis by analysis last offseason until he made it official; Favre has been toying with retirement for a few seasons now.

Ironically, it was THIS offseason when the chatter had died down some. Coming off a 13-3 season and an MVP-caliber performance (by far his best personal stats in years), most [myself included] assumed Favre would return in 2008 to make one more run at a Super Bowl title.

That’s what we all get for becoming complacent.

This morning, Brett “4″ Favre announced his retirement.

• Voice mail from Brett Favre to Chris Mortensen

Listening to that voice mail, you get the sense of what enormous pressure Favre put on himself to improve on 2007. And he’s right, anything less than a Super Bowl appearance would’ve been “less” than what they accomplished this year in many people’s minds.Today is a day to salute one of the greatest QBs to ever play the game.Favre’s Accomplishments

• Three time (3) MVP [the only 3-time MVP in league history]
• Seven (7) All Pro selections
• Nine (9) Pro Bowl selections
• 253 consecutive starts [something that will probably never be broken]
• 1st all-time, pass attempts (8,758)
• 1st all-time, pass completions (5,377)
• 1st all-time, passing yards (61,655)
• 1st all-time, passing TDs (442)
• 2 Super Bowl appearances
• 1 Super Bowl victory

It wouldn’t be right for a Footballguys tribute not to mention what a potent fantasy football player Favre was…

Favre’s Fantasy Accomplishments

Exhibit 1: Favre is the all-time leader among QBs in fantasy points scored (1960-Present)

Exhibit 2: Fantasy points per game (Min: 100 games played)

Exhibit 3: Consistency from start to finish

• Finished no worse than 13th among fantasy QBs for SIXTEEN (16) consecutive years
• Finished among the top 10 fantasy QB a record FOURTEEN (14) seasons
• Finished among the top 8 a record TWELVE (12) seasons
• Seven (7) top-5 finishes
• Five (5) top-2 finishes
• Three (3) CONSECUTIVE #1 fantasy rankings

Nothing makes a fantasy player happier than a gunslinger who piles on the yards. Favre was one of the best, let’s never forget that.

Big Ben Roethlisberger signed an 8-year, $102mm extension today that guarantees him $36mm. Considering Big Ben is taking the same guaranteed money that Peyton Manning and Michael Vick got a few years ago, it’s hard to argue the Steelers are paying him too much. Big Ben has not only brought a SB title to Pittsburgh, but is coming off his best season:

• 264 completions
• 404 attempts
• 65.3% completion
• 3,154 yards
• 32 TDs
• 11 INTs
• 104.1 paser rating

Personally, I think this is a smart deal. Locking up a young franchise passer is smart business. Given the inflation we’re seeing in salaries this year, they could’ve paid him a lot more and set a new market for franchise QBs, but instead basically met the pre-existing market. That’s good business.

But looking a little deeper, should Steelers fans be worried about this contract? Ben becomes the 7th QB in NFL history awarded a $100mm contract. In each prior case, the team has fared better BEFORE the contract than after.

In all but Donovan McNabb’s case, the QBs landing $100mm contracts have led their teams to a worse winning percentage after the fact. In three cases, the players winning percentage has plummeted, including the three most recent $100mm QBs (Culpepper, Vick, Palmer).

Is this just a random statistical quirk? Probably so. Drew Bledsoe got hurt and only played two games for New England after signing his extension. In Mike Vick and Carson Palmer’s cases, their team’s defenses have fallen off a cliff coincident with their new contracts. But can that not be blamed, at least in part, to the fact these new $100mm deals removed some of the flexibility GMs had in strengthening other parts of the team? Perhaps.

Either way, for now I still say the Steelers were smart to give Big Ben the big extension. Now if the Steelers end up losing more games than they have to date with Big Ben under center, we can revisit this phenomenon more intently.

Lest anyone think Bill Parcells was going to take a measured approach toward rebuilding the woeful Miami Dolphins, think again. In what has to be the busiest single day in the history of NFL free agency, Parcells and his staff have signed a flurry of players in an attempt to right a ship that finished 1-15 a season ago. The Dolphins had approximately $40mm under the cap to spend; and Parcells appears ready to use every last bit of it. Today’s signings ranged from veteran locker room guys (e.g., Jason Ferguson and Sean Ryan) to potential Pro Bowlers (e.g., Calvin Pace). And considering the team’s cap situation, Parcells probably isn’t done yet.

A Recap of Bill’s Frenzied Friday

LB Calvin Pace — Rated as one of the top players at his position, Pace is exactly the kind of player Parcells’ covets. Pace is big (a converted defensive end) and thrived as the rush ‘backer in the Cardinals 3-4 last year. Although this isn’t official yet, several reports have the Fins giving Pace $20mm guaranteed. The addition of Pace raises questions about whether the team plans on keeping Joey Porter around. NOTE: Despite earlier reports, Pace did not sign with Miami but instead signed a 6-year, $42mm deal with the Jets.

OG Justin Smiley — The Dolphins signed Smiley to a 5-year, $25mm deal including $9mm in guarantees. Smiley has been a starter for most of his career (in San Francisco) and significantly upgrades the interior of the Dolphins line. Smiley helped open holes for Frank Gore and will likely slide in between center Samson Satele and LT L.J. Shelton.

DT Randy Starks — Considering how much defensive tackles are netting at the start of free agency, this signing seems like a downright steal. The Dolphins signed the 24-year old tackle to a 5-year, $21mm deal with $7mm in guarantees. Starks may not be a star (he lost his starting job in Tennessee to Tony Brown) but he’s got the size (6′3″, 314 pounds) and technique to emerge in the Fins scheme.

QB Josh McCown — McCown was a part-time starter in Arizona and Oakland, and may find himself starting in Week One for Miami depending on what else the Dolphins do this preseason. Given a 2-year, $6.25mm contract; McCown is very much a safety valve until John Beck (or someone else not currently on the roster) are ready to take over full-time. This isn’t a major financial commitment, nor should it be considering McCown has never finished a season with a passer rating above 74.9.

WR Ernest Wilford — Wilford was deemed expendable by the Jaguars after the acquisitions of Jerry Porter and Troy Williamson; but he quickly found a new home in Miami signing a 4-year, $13mm deal with $6mm in guarantees. Last year, Wilford caught 45 passes for 518 yards while scoring three times. He’s not a difference maker per se, but his addition will help stabilize the intermediate passing game. Wilford is a big (6′4″, 218 pounds) receiver with loads of starting experience, and will compliment the speedy Ted Ginn Jr.

TE Sean Ryan — Ryan is another long-time Parcells favorite. Signed to a one-year deal, this is more about bringing in a high character guy that Parcells thinks will help the locker room as well as special teams. Ryan isn’t going to be asked to do much offensively; he has a whopping 9 career receptions in four seasons. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

NT Jason Ferguson – Ferguson just didn’t fit into Wade Phillips attacking scheme in Dallas, but should have a place in Dallas’ system. The Cowboys traded Ferguson to Miami today, reuniting him with Parcells for the third time in his 12-year career. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

These moves probably are just the beginning as Parcells, GM Jeff Ireland and the coaching staff look to fundamentally alter the DNA of this team and return the Dolphins to prominence.

It’s the glory position of the league, and as a result it’s rarely the glory position of NFL free agency. Teams simply don’t make a habit of letting starting caliber QBs leave without compensation. Does this mean it’s impossible to find a quality starter in free agency? Absolutely not, just ask the New Orleans Saints (Drew Brees).

This year, there don’t appear to be any long-term answers in free agency assuming the Browns don’t let Derek Anderson walk [which we don’t expect], but a number of veterans with starting experience will land in new cities and have a shot at playing time in 2008.

A number of potential free agents were quickly re-signed by their incumbent teams:

• Rex Grossman signed a one-year deal to remain with the Bears. He will compete in camp against Kyle Orton (signed through 2009) in training camp
• Shaun Hill signed a three-year deal to stay in San Francisco. The 49ers also picked up the option on Alex Smith; leaving the door open for another possible camp competition

The Top Quarterbacks on the Market

1. Derek Anderson (6′6″, 230 pounds, 24 years old) — Anderson is a restricted free agent and the Browns have already offered him a 3-year, $20mm extension. Anderson emerged last season from a murky training camp competition and was the surprise of the league. He threw for 29 TDs and almost 4,000 yards while earning a Pro Bowl alternate nod. By re-signing Anderson, the Browns could keep Brady Quinn as the backup; giving them two young potential franchise passers; something few teams can match.
2. Todd Collins (6′4″, 225 pounds, 36 years old) – If you needed any indication of how weak this year’s FA class is, look no further than the fact Collins — a 36 year old journeyman — appears to be the best option. Collins started in place of the injured Jason Campbell late in the 2007 season and rolled up a 106.4 passer rating on the way to three straight victories and a playoff berth. Expect Collins to re-sign in Washington on a two- or three-year deal.
3. Daunte Culpepper (6′4″, 260 pounds, 31 years old) — It’s hard to believe Culpepper had the best fantasy season in QB history just a few years ago. But after seven seasons in Minnesota, Culpepper is possibly looking at his 3rd team in as many seasons. He should be 100% healthy (he tore his ACL in 2006) but needs to re-commit to his conditioning. No other QB has the pedigree Culpepper does; but therein lies the problem. Culpepper doesn’t see himself as a backup; which is probably what most GMs do.
4. Billy Volek (6′2″, 214 pounds, 31 years old) — Volek played sparingly as Philip Rivers backup the last two seasons but acquitted himself reasonably well as the fill-in starter in Tennessee. In 2004, his only significant starting time, he threw for 2,486 yards and 18 TDs on 61% completions in just 8 starts. Volek isn’t going to get a starting job; but he’s an intriguing backup that would give some team an above average fill-in option.
5. Byron Leftwich (6′5″, 250 pounds, 28 years old) — Think Leftwich should be higher on this list? Quite possibly, but what does it say that the woeful Atlanta Falcons felt better with Joey Harrington and Chris Redman under center. Leftwich is only 28 years old, has years of starting experience, and is a career 59% passer. But, he’s not in great shape, has a slow release and is best suited playing out of the shotgun. He’s too young and too talented not to land somewhere; but will it be a spot where he can compete for the top job?

The (Near) Complete List

Last month, Donovan McNabb made a plea for management to bring in more playmakers, citing the team’s 8-8 record and 4th place division finish:

Now that the season is over and we are concentrating on 2008, I hope we are able to secure some playmakers in all three phases of the game. Maybe some of those playmakers are already on the roster but have struggled with injuries, myself included, that have held us back a little.

You can’t argue with how the Patriots went outside their locker room and stocked up on playmakers last year. It certainly helped to have Randy Moss, Donte Stallworth, Wes Welker and Adalius Thomas making plays for them all year.

I’m surprised that anyone would have a problem with me, or anyone else in the organization, expressing a desire to bring in more quality players. We were 8-8. There is room for improvement. This is a competitive sport. It’s about putting together the best players, the best team, and giving yourself the best chance to win.

OK, as an Eagles season ticket holder I’m not going to pretend to be unbiased on this matter. On the surface, it’s hard to argue with McNabb’s statement. After all, the Eagles lacked impact playmakers on both sides of the ball. The team ranked poorly in big plays on offense, and didn’t force enough turnovers on defense. Certainly, all things being equal, I would like to see Philadelphia make some bold offseason maneuvers.

BUT…has McNabb looked in the mirror? Dos the buck stop with “5″? Rather than simply accept the perception that Philadelphia has a lack of playmakers on offense, I thought it might be worth putting some numbers together to see if the stats bear out McNabb’s contentions.

Yards After the Catch (YAC)

The ability of a receiver to generate yards after the catch is essential; particularly in a West Coast offense. To that end, the Eagles’ as a team generated 2,147 yards after the catch last season. That was the THIRD BEST TOTAL IN THE LEAGUE. In other words, McNabb’s receivers did a lot on their own once he got the ball into their hands. But that number (2,147 yards) doesn’t tell the whole story. Let’s look at what percentage of each team’s receiving yards came after the catch:

As you can see, the Eagles pass catchers generated nearly THREE FIFTHS of the team’s yards AFTER THE CATCH. Thinking of this another way, Donovan McNabb and the other Eagles’ QBs just didn’t get the ball downfield with regularity. So I ask, is it the receivers or McNabb that needs to improve?

Dropped Passes

Another key metric is dropped passes. Nothing is more frustrating for a QB than to put the ball where it needs to be only to have a receiver drop the ball. So have the Eagles been a victim of the drops?

On this front it seems McNabb may have a better argument. The Eagles receivers dropped 6.4% of the team’s attempts; among the worst in the league.

So what’s the verdict? The Eagles, like many teams, could always use more offensive playmakers. But this perception that Philly’s receiving corps is among the least impressive in the league simply isn’t accurate. Could it be better? Certainly. But a lot of the blame for the team’s lack of explosiveness in the passing game falls at the feet of McNabb and his backups.

It seems that the Baltimore Ravens have been in search of a quarterback since they infamous day they decided to leave Cleveland and become the Ravens. Even in their Super Bowl year, with a head coach best known for his offensive machinations, the Ravens trotted out a combination of Tony Banks and Trent Dilfer under center (and also had a span of scoreless games to rival even the most inept teams in league history).

Making the issue even more confounding is the reputation of GM Ozzie Newsome, considered by most to be among the best in the business.

It’s not as though Ozzie hasn’t tried:

• Vinny Testaverde (29 starts)
• Eric Zeier (7 starts)
• Jim Harbaugh (12 starts)
• Scott Mitchell (2 starts)
• Stoney Case (4 starts)
• Tony Banks (18 starts)
• Trent Dilfer (8 starts)
• Elvis Grbac (14 starts)
• Randall Cunningham (2 starts)
• Jeff Blake (10 starts)
• Chris Redman (6 starts)
• Anthony Wright (14 starts)
• Kyle Boller (42 starts)
• Steve McNair (22 starts)
• Troy Smith (2 starts)

What’s more surprising, the number of starters on this list or the fact Kyle Boller tops the list with 42 starts?

With a new coaching staff, and a proven offensive coordinator (Cam Cameron), it stands to reason that Baltimore’s quest for a reliable starter will continue over the next few months. So what are the teams options?

Option 1: Maintain the status quo 

All three QBs (Steve McNair, Kyle Boller & Troy Smith) are under contract; so it’s conceivable the team could stand pat. Unfortunately the trio combined for a meager 3,308 yards passing, 13 TDs and only 5.0 yards per attempt (all among the worst in the league).

• Steve McNair is 35 years old and coming off surgery on a torn rotator cuff in December, but neither he nor the team have ruled out anything for the 2007 season. Cam Cameron recently spoke to the press and left the door open for McNair to contribute. Realistically, the team would probably like to have McNair as a fall back option.
• Kyle Boller signed a one-year extension last season, and will make $3mm in 2008. It would seem illogical for the Ravens to part ways with Boller; regardless of whether they intend to give him a shot at winning the starting job or not.
• Troy Smith, a 5th rounder last year despite winning the Heisman Trophy, is entering his 2nd year of a 3-year contract. Smith got the final two starts of the 2007 season and did precious little to suggest he should be a serious candidate to start in 2008.

Option 2: Scour the free agent market

It’s every fans hope that his team will lure a big-name free agent that makes all the difference. But at the QB position, that’s a nigh impossible task. Teams simply don’t let great QBs hit free agency, at least proven ones. This year’s free agent class of QBs leaves much to be desired:

• Todd Collins
• Daunte Culpepper
• Trent Green [released by Miami this week]
• Rex Grossman
• Quinn Gray
• Tim Hasselbeck
• Cleo  Lemon
• Jared Lorenzen
• Jamie Martin
• Josh McCown
• Craig Nall
• J.T. O’Sullivan
• Tim Rattay
• Chris Redman
• Brian St. Pierre
• Marques Tuiasosopo
• Billy Volek
• Chris Weinke

Option 3: Acquire someone via trade

It always makes for good copy, but how often does a franchise QB get traded? Just a few weeks ago, rumors circulated that the Philadelphia Eagles and Baltimore Ravens were discussing a trade for Donovan McNabb. As with most rumors, this one appears to have no truth to it, as both teams vehemently denied even broaching the subject. Trades are possible (remember the Matt Schaub deal last offseason), but off the top of my head there really aren’t any obvious situations analogous to Schaub’s a season ago.

Option 4: Draft someone

The Ravens own the 8th pick in the draft and could be in position to draft a QB if they so choose. Matt Ryan (B.C.) and Brian Brohm (Louisville) are the consensus top options; and it’s possible one of them could be available at the 8 spot. If neither of those guys is available, or if the Ravens see value at another position with 1.08, the team could look toward someone along the lines of Chad Henne, Andre Woodson or Joe Flacco in the 2nd or 3rd round.

VERDICT: Draft someone and roll with either McNair or Boller in 2008. Given the alternatives,  it seems the Ravens are likely to go with either McNair (if his shoulder holds up) or Boller under center in September 2008; but don’t be surprised to see the Ravens use a fairly high pick on a QB that actually could lead the franchise. Troy Smith, for as great a story as he was, probably isn’t the answer long term.

Jerry Angelo was the architect of a Bears team that, just a season ago, went to the Super Bowl. Far be it for me to suggest Angelo doesn’t know how to do his job (I’ll leave that to the Bears beat writers); but Bears fans had to cringe when they read what Angelo had to say about the QB situation in the Chicago Tribune:

Dan Pompei: Would you be comfortable with the same three quarterbacks in camp next season?

Jerry Angelo: Yes. These three quarterbacks—I said this going into the season and I still say it—they give us the best situation at the position we’ve had since I’ve been here. All three of these quarterbacks have proven you can win with them. What we haven’t done is gotten it 100 percent stabilized in terms of who is the guy. We’d like to see all three back and determine from there who that guy is.

Dan Pompei: You have invested three years of development in Kyle Orton. We’ve seen many quarterbacks like him—David Garrard and Tony Romo for instance—emerge after similar beginnings. Is there a feeling that you owe it to the organization to give him a chance to start?

Jerry Angelo: It’s a good point. There have been a good number of players who have been picked on the second day of the draft, who, given time, have produced and become winning starters. I felt like the last two games of the season Kyle performed very well for us. Obviously Rex [Grossman] is still involved, but he’s an unrestricted free agent, and Brian [Griese]. But we certainly feel very good about Kyle.

OK, either Angelo is simply posturing JUST IN CASE the Bears have no luck securing help at the QB position, OR Bears fans are in for another LONG season in 2008. Assuming the Bears have better luck next year on the defensive side of the ball (there were a ton of injuries), and presuming they can add help at the RB position (not very hard if you draft well), the most glaring problem area remains at quarterback.

Rex Grossman is an unrestricted free agent, and it would be surprising to see Rex return to Chicago. I’m sure Grossman thinks he could benefit from a change of scenery and Chicago fans won’t miss him. Is there a veteran QB out there who makes sense? I know Bears fans were hoping Donovan McNabb would become available but that’s no longer in the cards. Chad Pennington also appears set to return to New York. At the very least, you have to think Angelo will draft a higher upside QB in April, with the idea that Orton or Griese can hold down the fort for a season.

The Ol’ Gunslinger — Brett Favre — wants to return for an 18th season…

“For the first time in three years, I haven’t thought this could be my last game,” Favre told the Biloxi Sun-Herald newspaper. “I would like to continue longer.”

My how quickly things can change in the NFL. A year ago at this time, most people assumed Brett Favre would either retire or limp back for one more season in order to break Dan Marino’s all-time records before exiting unceremoniously out the door. Now, after an MVP-like season that saw the Packers win 13 games (and counting), Favre seems ready to not only return in 2008, but to make another run at contention.

Want to know how things will get interesting? Let’s see if the Packers can win the Super Bowl this year. IF they were to win the SB, I could see Favre calling it a career; but otherwise, fantasy owners and NFL fans can expect him back slinging passes around with aplomb in 2008.

Quarterbacks (QB)

• Tom Brady, New England
• Peyton Manning, Indianapolis
• Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh

Snub Alert = NIL: They’re 1-2-3 in passing TDs and passer rating in the AFC, and are all in position to lead their teams to division titles. The AFC QB situation was top heavy this year, as Derek Anderson and David Garrard were also deserving; but not at the expense of the three selections.

Running Backs (RB)

• LaDainian Tomlinson, San Diego
• Willie Parker, Pittsburgh
• Joseph Addai, Indianapolis

Snub Alert = Willis McGahee & Jamal Lewis: I keep hearing about Fred Taylor’s “Pro Bowl snub” and I’m just not seeing it. Sure, he’s averaging 5.1 yards per rush but is only 14th in yards from scrimmage with a meager 4 TDs. The real snubs were a pair of AFC North runners. McGahee has almost as many yards from scrimmage as Willie Parker but 4x the TDs (8 vs. 2) while Jamal Lewis is 9th in the league in yards with a better YPC (4.3) than either Parker or Addai. Lewis has 11 TDs to Parker’s 2.

Fullback (FB)

• Lorenzo Neal, San Diego

Snub Alert = NIL: The only snub alert is the fact that the Pro Bowl roster requires a “fullback” in the first place. The sooner they abandon the requirement (many teams don’t use a traditional fullback anymore), the better.

Wide Receivers (WR)

• Randy Moss, New England
• Reggie Wayne, Indianapolis
• Braylon Edwards, Cleveland
• T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Cincinnati

Snub Alert = Wes Welker, Brandon Marshall & ‘Ocho Cinco’: I personally think the AFC WR selections are spot on, but a case could be made for Welker (96 catches, 9 TDs), Marshall (1,136 yards, 6 TDs) and Chad Johnson (1,265 yards, 6 TDs), too. Unfortunately for those three, it has been a historic year for WR production with Moss (19 TDs), Edwards (13 TDs) and Housh (11 TDs) all putti