The deadline for teams to apply the franchise or transition tag designations ended at 4:30 pm EST yesterday; so now it’s time to recap what happened and evaluate some of the moves (and non-moves).

Twelve (12) teams used the franchise tag designation:

• CB Nmandi Asomugha (Oakland)
• CB Marcus Trufant (Seattle)
• DE Jared Allen (Kansas City)
• DT Albert Haynesworth (Tennessee)
• DT Corey Williams (Green Bay)
• LB Karlos Dansby (Arizona)
• LB Terrell Suggs (Baltimore)
• OT Stacy Andrews (Cincinnati)
• OT Jordan Gross (Carolina)
• S Ken Hamlin (Dallas)
• TE Dallas Clark (Indianapolis)
• TE L.J. Smith (Philadelphia)

Most Surprising Tag: Stacy Andrews

Andrews played quite well last season, but it was his first year as a starter. The Bengals still have Levi Jones and Willie Anderson in the picture; although that may change now that Andrews has been tagged. Given the importance of Carson Palmer and Andrews’ age, the move isn’t a total shocker; although few outside of die hard Bengals fans expected it.

Most Surprising Non-Tag: Randy Moss 

As we discussed last night, not tagging Randy Moss is shocking only if they don’t already have a long-term deal completed; but unannounced until the February 29th start of free agency. We expect he IS under contract, but if this proves untrue, this may be the most shocking non-tag decision of the modern era.

Other Surprising Non-Tags 

• OT Flozell Adams (Dallas) – Adams is no spring chicken, and the Cowboys did use their tag on someone else (Ken Hamlin), but this is a bold move if the Cowboys don’t end up re-signing Adams. He has played at a high level the last few seasons and the team doesn’t have someone of his caliber (or close to it) currently on the roster. Will Jerry Jones be willing to go to battle with a young, unproven tackle in 2008?
• PK Josh Brown (Seattle) — The Seahawks tagged Brown last year and it was thought he could be tagged again this season; but now free agency looms. It’s never an easy decision to let a proven kicker walk, but perhaps they didn’t see the logic in making him the highest paid PK in the league.

Interesting Tag Minutiae

• Exclusive tag versus non-exclusive – As we discussed earlier this week, Nmandi Asomugha was tagged with an exclusive franchise designation, meaning the Raiders paid him more (the average of the 2008 top 5 projected salaries versus the 2007 in a normal tag) in exchange for keeping Asomugha from being able to negotiate with other teams. It’s telling that only one of twelve teams opted to use this tag; as it involves paying a player more yet brings less wiggle room. Why a team would pass up the idea of getting 2 first round picks if a team wants their free agent badly enough is a mystery (the Raiders would still have had the right to match).
• Is Suggs a linebacker or defensive end? — The Baltimore Ravens tagged Terrell Suggs as a linebacker, but he has filed a grievance contending he should be paid as a defensive end. The difference? About $800K for the one-year tender. This matter will be settled shortly (if Suggs lined up more than 50% of the snaps as an end, he’ll get his extra dough), but it’s odd that Suggs, who has gone to the Pro Bowl twice as a LINEBACKER would think of himself otherwise.

Most Likely to Sign a Long-term Deal: Dallas Clark

OK, this is cheating since Clark already signed a 6-year deal to remain with the Colts.

Least Likely to Sign a Long-term Deal:  L.J. Smith

The Eagles remain concerned about Smith’s health and likely won’t agree to a long-term extension without seeing improvement on the field. This is basically a one-year option to retain a talented, system TE in a very weak free agent market for tight ends.

How did we do in our predictions?

We previewed each division and our thoughts on potential tag candidates. Overall, I’d say we did quite well.

• We correctly predicted 9 of 10 ‘definites’; our only whiff was on Randy Moss
• We noted that Flozell Adams and Ken Hamlin were possibilities in Dallas [although we leaned toward Adams]
• We noted that Brown and Trufant were possibilities in Seattle [and leaned toward Trufant]
• We noted DT Corey Williams and WR Bernard Berrian as possible tags [one out of two]
• We suggested that Justin Smith shouldn’t be tagged

Now it’s onto free agency and the NFL draft!
Related Blogs:

• ‘Tis the Season for Tagging
• NFC East Potential Tag Candidates
• NFC North Potential Tag Candidates
• NFC South Potential Tag Candidates
• NFC West Potential Tag Candidates
• AFC East Potential Tag Candidates
• AFC North Potential Tag Candidates
• AFC South Potential Tag Candidates
• AFC West Potential Tag Candidates

I won’t blame you if you missed the news today that PK Lawrence Tynes is close to a new 5-year contract with the New York Giants, according the Newark Star-Ledger:

There’s no quit in Ernie Palladino. After busting his hump while covering a Super Bowl run, he comes out of the gate on the following Monday to report the Giants have agreed to terms with K Lawrence Tynes, the NFC Championship game hero, on a new five-year, $7-million deal. Tynes, 29, acquired from the Chiefs in a trade last May, is scheduled to become an unrestricted free agent at the end of the month.

Seeing this news, I have to wonder whether the giddiness over the Super Bowl victory has Giants management overvaluing Tynes’ services. I mean, this is the same kicker who seemed destined to be THE goat of the playoffs when he missed not one, but two  field goals against the Packers (before kicking the game winner later in overtime). This is the same kicker who ranked just 19th in PK points this season, missed TWO extra points, and was run out of Kansas City just a season ago.

Tynes is a career 79.8% field goal kicker and his 85% in 2007 ranked a meager 18th in the league. Yep…sounds like just the kind of guy the Giants should be racing to lock up long-term.

Arizona Cardinals

LB Karlos Dansby

The Cardinals have two free agent linebackers that are among the most compelling options in free agency: Karlos Dansby and Calvin Pace. While Pace is talented and someone the Cardinals would like to have back, it’s Dansby that’s almost assuredly going to be tagged because he’s emerging as one of the preeminent defensive playmakers in the NFC.

     
St. Louis Rams

The Rams have a handful of free agents but none that warrant either the franchise or transition tag designation.

San Francisco 49ers

GM Scott McCloughan has gone on record saying the team has no intentions of using the franchise tag on any of its key free agents. The team has a few key free agents it would do well to retain (e.g., Isaac Sopaoga and Larry Allen) but neither are worth the kind of money a franchise designation would incur.

Seattle Seahawks

Option 1: PK Josh Brown

The Seahawks don’t want to lose their star place kicker and, as a result, may tag him again. Recall that Browns was the team’s franchise player last season, but the team was unable to come to terms on a multi-year deal. Given the modest differential between the top paid kickers and the middle-of-the-road alternatives, the Seahawks would be foolish to let Brown enter free agency; either they will sign him long-term over the next week or he’ll get tagged because…

Option 2: CB Marcus Trufant

The ‘hawks don’t want to be in the position of having to let Marcus Trufant hit the open market. Trufant is one of the best young corners in the league and, were he to hit free agency, could potentially garner the kind of monster offer Nate Clements received from San Francisco last season. Our bet is that Seattle comes to terms with Brown on a deal in the next few days, allowing them to tag Trufant.

You are welcome to consider the following as analysis or entertainment, as you see fit.

WEEK 16 of the 2O06 SEASON
Seven kickers score in double digits in week 16 last year:
10 Matt Bryant in TB 22-7 victory at Cle
11 David Akers in Phi 23-7 victory at Dal
12 Rob Bironas in Ten 30-29 victory at Buf
12 John Carney in NO 30-7 victory at NYG
14 Neil Rackers in Ari 26-20 victory at SF
14 Robbie Gould in Chi 26-20 victory at Det
17 Rian Lindell in Buf 29-20 loss against Ten

6 of 7 of those games featured teams that ended up with similar records (Chi-Det being the exception)
6 of 7 of those kickers played for the visiting team (Lindell being the exception)
6 of 7 of those kickers played for the team that won (Lindell being the exception)

WEEK 16 of the 2007 SEASON
Who are the visiting kickers this week in matchups of teams with similar records?
Lawrence Tynes: 9-5 NYG at 7-7 Buf
David Akers: 6-8 Phi at 7-7 NO
John Carney: 4-10 KC at 6-8 Det
Shaun Suisham: 7-7 Was at 8-6 Min

For those not biblically inclined, Methuselah was allegedly the oldest man mentioned in the Old Testament, living to the ripe old age of 969. For all intents and purposes, the Falcons have re-signed the NFL’s version of Methuselah; placekicker Morten Andersen. Andersen returns to the Falcons to replace Matt Prater, who went 1-for-4 in the first two games of the season.

For those not keeping score at home, here are some fun facts about the NFL’s oldest player:

• 47 years old
• The NFL’s all-time leading scorer
• Played for 6 NFL teams (Saints, Falcons, Giants, Chiefs, Vikings)
• 7-time Pro Bowler
• Member of the 1980s All-Decade Team
• Member of the 1990s All-Decade Team

In case you can’t appreciate how old Andersen is, consider:

• Andersen is older than a dozen NFL head coaches
• He was drafted in the same year (1982) as Marcus Allen and Mike Munchak
• He was drafted a year earlier than John Elway, Eric Dickerson and Jim Kelly

‘Tis the season for place-kicking changes. No sooner do the Jaguars move to replace the injured Josh Scobee do the Chiefs formalize their acquisition of Dave Rayner in place of rookie Justin Medlock. Rayner is a strong-legged kicker who started for the Packers last year but lost out to rookie Mason Crosby (remember him?). While Rayner has the leg to kick from anywhere on the field, he struggled with his consistency a year ago, missing 10 field goals. The Chiefs look like a moribund offensive team this year, which is a rough combination with an inaccurate kicker. Chances are you weren’t relying on Medlock to score you fantasy points, don’t treat Rayner any differently.

Josh Scobee, considered by many a top-10 fantasy PK this season, is expected to be out 6-to-8 weeks with a quadriceps injury that he suffered during Week One warm-ups. The Jaguars have replaced him with veteran John Carney. Carney was 23-for-25 last year on the top rated offense in the league (New Orleans) and has 100+ points in six of his last seven seasons. If you’re desperate for a fantasy kicker, Carney is an excellent waiver wire option.

Here are the top 5 players on our Cheatsheets at each position, for Week One:

Quarterback (QB)

1. Peyton Manning - IND vs NO
2. Drew Brees - NO at IND
3. Tom Brady - NE at NYJ
4. Tony Romo - DAL vs NYG
5. Carson Palmer - CIN vs BAL

Running Back (RB)

1. LaDainian Tomlinson - SD vs CHI
2. Steven Jackson - STL vs CAR
3. Willie Parker - PIT at CLE
4. Joseph Addai - IND vs NO
5. Frank Gore - SF vs ARI

Wide Receiver (WR)

1. Terrell Owens - DAL vs NYG
2. Steve Smith - CAR at STL
3. Marvin Harrison - IND vs NO
4. Chad Johnson - CIN vs BAL
5. Reggie Wayne - IND vs NO

Tight End (TE)

1. Antonio Gates - SD vs CHI
2. Jeremy Shockey - NYG at DAL
3. Todd Heap - BAL at CIN
4. Chris Cooley - WAS vs MIA
5. Kellen Winslow Jr - CLE vs PIT

Defense/Special Teams (DST)

1. Chicago Bears - CHI at SD
2. Baltimore Ravens - BAL at CIN
3. Miami Dolphins - MIA at WAS
4. San Diego Chargers - SD vs CHI
5. New England Patriots - NE at NYJ

Kicker (PK)

1. Adam Vinatieri - IND vs NO
2. Olindo Mare - NO at IND
3. Josh Brown - SEA vs TB
4. Josh Scobee - JAX vs TEN
5. David Akers - PHI at GB

Defensive Line (DL)

1. Jason Taylor - MIA at WAS
2. Aaron Kampman - GB vs PHI
3. Derrick Burgess - OAK vs DET
4. Aaron Schobel - BUF vs DEN
5. Terrell Suggs - BAL at CIN

Linebacker (LB)

1. Keith Bulluck - TEN at JAX
2. London Fletcher - WAS vs MIA
3. Antonio Pierce - NYG at DAL
4. DeMeco Ryans - HOU vs KC
5. Ray Lewis - BAL at CIN

Defensive Back (DB)

1. Adrian Wilson - ARI at SF
2. Chris Hope - TEN at JAX
3. Sean Jones - CLE vs PIT
4. Roy Williams - DAL vs NYG
5. Troy Polamalu - PIT at CLE

Our complete cheatsheets are available for subscribers HERE. We also provide customized cheatsheets (tailored to your scoring system) as well as customized player projections. If you haven’t decided whether or not to subscribe to Footballguys yet; here a few reasons why we think it’s money well spent.

If you’re a savvy fantasy footballer, and really are committed to the principles of Value-Based Drafting, you HAVE to wait on your kicker. Every draft, regardless of how experienced the participants are, you see the inevitable guy reach for Adam Vinatieri in the middle rounds; as though locking him up is really a decided advantage.

1) Very little separates the top kickers in traditional fantasy scoring — Using basic PK scoring (i.e., 3 pts for 30 yards, 4 for 40 yards, etc…), 23 kickers scored 100 or more fantasy points last year. The difference between PK4 (Matt Stover — 121 points) and PK17 (Mike Nugent — 106 points) was less than a point per game. Think about that, less than a point per game separated a middle of the road waiver kicker from the 4th best PK. And that’s not an anomaly; it happens every year.

2) The top fantasy kicker is often a surprise – Every year someone drafts LAST YEAR’S top kicker early as though he were likely to repeat. Yet it rarely if ever happens. The 2006 top fantasy kicker was ROBBIE GOULD. The year before? Neil Rackers. No one saw Rackers coming, yet he was dominant. How did he fare in 2006? PK8.

So without further ado, here are two kickers that a) should be available very late in your drafts (because people aren’t paying attention) and b) have as good a chance to put up 100+ points as anyone in the league.

• Mason Crosby, Green Bay Packers – Crosby is being drafted 28th among PKs according to our consensus ADP data. One of the reasons he’s going late is that he was fighting against incumbent Dave Rayner during camp; and many fantasy owners couldn’t be bothered to find out who won the competition. Don’t make the same mistake. Last year, Rayner was the 14th best kicker and scored 109 points (two more FGs would’ve put him in the top-10). But also remember that Rayner missed NINE field goals last year; if Crosby (who is more accurate) gets the same number of attempts, he’s looking at top-10 fantasy numbers EASILY.

• Nick Folk, Dallas Cowboys – Folk is another youngster that came out of nowhere to displace Martin Gramatica on the Cowboys roster. He’s currently being drafted 26th among PKs; which is a gift from your league mates to you on your draft night. While Folk is a less heralded commodity than Crosby, his situation may be even more advantageous. The Cowboys could have one of the best offenses in the league, which means lots of red zone opportunities. Last year, the Cowboys attempted 28 FGs, but that really understates the opportunity. Remember, Bill Parcells didn’t trust his FG kickers (with good reason!) and went out of his way to either punt or go for 4th down conversions in areas that most NFL coaches would’ve kicked FGs.

Whether you just love looking at enthusiastic hosts with high top fades or producers breaking the 4th wall or want 5-minutes of hard hitting fantasy insight, the Five Minute Drill has got what you need. Footballguys’ own Cecil “Kid” Lammey and Sigmund “Play” Bloom (with a special guest appearance by producer Marc Faletti) are back with their third episode of the must see fantasy vidcast. This week they look at drafting QBs and TEs, and finish off with a pair of great PKs and Defenses that deserve your attention.

LISTEN NOW!

One of Chicago’s biggest wins last year was the improbable come from behind victory in a Monday night game against Arizona. With less than a minute left in the game, kicker Neil Rackers could have salvaged a victory for the Cardinals. With the ball on the left hash mark from 40 yards away, he missed the kick wide left.

During the off-season, Rackers practiced kicks over and over from that same distance and spot. By his guesstimate, he practiced it 500 times and was good on 98% of them. We can look at this two ways. On the positive side, he is obviously committed to improving his game. Very committed. On the negative side, this is contradictory to what nearly every kicker and coach indicates should be done following a big miss (or any miss for that matter). The prevailing wisdom is to put the kick behind you and move onwards. Rackers obviously did not put the kick behind him, but instead dwelled upon it months after it occurred.

Rackers could very well be fine. It could also be the beginning of a situation similar to the what happened to Martin Gramatica several years ago in Tampa Bay.