2.32: Phillip Merling, DE, Miami Dolphins

Pass rusher had some injury woes but was effective off the edge when healthy. Has the size (6′5″, 272 pounds) that Bill Parcells covets. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.33: Donnie Avery, WR, St. Louis Rams

Quite a surprise. The first WR off the board is a small, uber fast guy considered a mid round pick by most scouts. Hard to believe he can replace Isaac Bruce without a few years of seasoning. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.34: Devin Thomas, WR, Washington Redskins (via Oakland through Atlanta)

The Redskins draft the WR many expected to be first off the WR board. Devin Thomas only had one big year at Michigan but has great size (6′2″, 215 pounds) and can also help as a kickoff returner. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.35: Brandon Flowers, CB, Kansas City Chiefs

If Flowers ran a tenth of a second faster, he would’ve been a mid 1st rounder. Great choice for the rebuilding Chiefs. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.36: Jordy Nelson, WR, Green Bay Packers (via New York Jets)

Another surprising WR selection. Was WR really a need for Green Bay with Driver, Jennings and Jones on the roster? Should help on special teams right away. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.37: Curtis Lofton, LB, Atlanta Falcons

Tackling machine, ideally suited for the inside where he can flow downfield to the ball. Not someone good in space and must be put in the right scheme to succeed. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.38: John Carlson, TE, Seattle Seahawks (via Baltimore)

Mike Holmgren called this a need, and the ‘hawks felt Carlson was a perfect fit for their West Coast offense. Carlson put up big numbers with Brady Quinn under center, as a reminder. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.39: Chilo Rachal, OG, San Francisco 49ers

Rachal gets knocked for not being a great athlete, but he’s technically sound and has a mean streak. As long as he plays inside and isn’t asked to pull and extend to the 2nd level much, he could be a starter immediately. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.40: Tracy Porter, CB, New Orleans Saints

Ironic that the Saints draft a cornerback with the 40th pick; considering there were rumors all week that the 40th pick would be part of a package to acquire Eagles CB Lito Sheppard. Porter is good at tracking the ball but isn’t a sure tackler or much help supporting the run.

2.41: James Hardy, WR, Buffalo Bills

The Bills landed the top corner in the draft last round and, in my opinion, the best receiver in the draft at 2.41. Hardy is a big guy who isn’t afraid of contact. He goes up for the ball and runs good routes; which helps offset a lack of breakaway speed.

2.42: Eddie Royal, WR, Denver Broncos

Royal is one of a handful of receivers who also project as solid returner at the next level. At only 5′8″, 184 pounds, Royal will need to prove he can hold up as a receiver over the course of the season. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.43: Tyrell Johnson, S, Minnesota Vikings (via Carolina through Philadelphia)

Kenny Phillips has the bigger name, but Johnson may have the bigger game. The Vikes continue to bolster their defense with another solid young, physical player. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.44: Matt Forte, RB, Chicago Bears

I’m not crazy about Forte; I don’t believe he’s a special back nor was he the best back left on the board. However, Forte has his supporters and it’s not inconceivable he could earn the starting gig over Cedric Benson sooner rather than later.

2.45: Jordon Dizon, OLB, Detroit Lions

Dizon lacks ideal size and speed; but like many solid NFL linebackers before him, he just makes plays. He’s instinctive and a sound tackler; exactly the kind of guy Rod Marinelli can build around. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.46: Jerome Simpson, WR, Cincinnati Bengals

Further proof that beauty is in the eye of the beholder at WR this year. Simpson wasn’t close to the best WR prospect on the board, but clearly the Bengals felt otherwise. At least, this pick fills a need given the release of Chris Henry and concerns about Chad Johnson’s status.

2.47: Trevor Laws, DT, Philadelphia Eagles (via Minnesota)

The Eagles finally make a pick, and it’s clearly a “best player available” selection. Defensive tackle was hardly a major need, but Laws is a high character, high motor guy who will add depth to an already young tackle rotation.

2.48: Fred Davis, TE, Washington Redskins (via Houston through Atlanta)

The Redskins are committed to getting QB Jason Campbell weapons. First Devin Thomas and now a pass-receiving tight end a few picks later. Davis doesn’t project into an elite tight end, but the Redskins don’t need him to be given the presence of Chris Cooley.

2.49: DeSean Jackson, WR/KR, Philadelphia Eagles

Many Birds fans wouldn’t have complained if Jackson was the pick in the 1st round. So to trade down, grab a 2009 1st rounder as compensation and get DeSean anyway was a coup. He’s tiny (169 pounds) but is blazing fast and unstoppable in the open field. He instantly gives the Eagles the best returner they’ve had in 5 years.

2.50: Calais Campbell, DE, Arizona Cardinals

You don’t find many 6′8″, 280 pound ends; yet Campbell fell into the 2nd round because of an uneven 2007 season. He was a stud in 2006 and, as long as the Cards play him at the right position, should combine with free agent Clark Haggans to improve the Cards pass rush.

2.51: Malcolm Kelly, WR, Washington Redskins

Sure, he’s slower than you would like. But have teams watched this kid play? He’s a polished route runner, has great hands and excellent body control. Very reminiscent of the year Chad Johnson fell because of his slow 40-time; the Skins got a steal.

2.52: Quentin Groves, DE, Jacksonville Jaguars (via Tampa Bay)

The Jags have a stifling defense already, but they aren’t great at putting pressure on opposing QBs. Adding Quentin Groves in the 2nd after taking Derrick Harvey 8th overall goes a long way to changing the Jags pass rush. Groves character issues aside, this was a solid pick.

2.53: Limas Sweed, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers

Some scouts love Sweed, some see him as a bust. At 53rd overall, the Steelers aren’t risking a lot financially to find out if he’s the next Plaxico Burress. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.54: Jason Jones, DE, Tennessee Titans

Jones could replace Antwan Odom right away, but he’s a bit raw to expect that. Eventually the Titans see Jones as a capable 2-way end in their 4-3 defense. His skill set is more suited to defensive tackle, but his size projects him as an end.

2.55: Ray Rice, RB, Baltimore Ravens (via Seattle)

Ray Rice is a local product who was wildly productive as the main ball carrier for Rutgers. While he lacks prototypical size, his low center of gravity and style make him more than capable of being an every down back if needed.

2.56: Brian Brohm, QB, Green Bay Packers (via Cleveland)

Now that’s kind of surprising. Or is it? The Pack took Aaron Rodgers in the 1st when Brett Favre was under center, so why wouldn’t they take the most accurate QB prospect in the 2nd round given Rodgers inexperience? Worst case, he’s a backup for a few years. Best case, he outplays Rodgers and ends up starting in a year or two.

2.57: Chad Henne, QB, Miami Dolphins (via San Diego)

How about that? It looks like Jake Long may be blocking for Chad Henne for a few more years. Another smart pick. He could easily outplay Beck and McCown to win the job; at the very lesaet he’s a big armed, young backup for a good price.

2.58: Dexter Jackson, WR/KR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (via Jacksonville)

This was a reach pick. While Jackson is another potentially dangerous return man; he needs a lot of maturing as a route runner before he can reasonably play WR on a regular basis. Blistering speed (4.33) though and dangerous in the open field.

2.59: Mike Pollak, OG/C, Indianapolis Colts

A classic Colts pick. Their only 1st day pick and it’s a fundamentally sound center that they project as a starting offensive guard for now and possibly a replacement for Jeff Saturday later. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.60: Patrick Lee, DB, Green Bay Packers

A hard worker, Lee may someday start at corner but not for a few seasons. In the meantime, he can be a force on special teams and perhaps play nickel back particularly in run support situations. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.61: Martellus Bennett, TE, Dallas Cowboys

I like this pick more than most. For my money, Bennett was the top TE in this draft. He’s huge, is a good blocker who can become great, and should be a key red zone target given his height and willingness to go up for the ball. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.62: Terrence Wheatley, CB, New England Patriots

The Pats always seem to find value and this was no exception. Wheatley is a legitimate shutdown cover corner who, were it not for myriad injuries in college, would’ve been in the hunt for a top 15 selection. Either way, he’ll help the Pats on defense and special teams.

2.63: Terrell Thomas, CB, New York Giants

Thomas is the 217th USC Trojan to be drafted in the first two rounds (not really, just feels that way). If the Giants view him as a corner, I don’t like this pick. But if they’re going to try to convert him to safety; where his deficiencies can be obfuscated somewhat, the choice makes more sense.

LB Jerod Mayo wasn’t considered a first day pick for most of the preseason, but as teams looked at more and more game film and watched him in postseason workouts, his stock began to rise. Not only did he work his way into the top 10 OVERALL, but shockingly he landed on the league’s best team. The Patriots selected the high rising Tennessee Volunteer and will work him into their versatile LB corps.

Fantasy Impact: Mayo is a fast riser, and we’re not used to the Patriots grabbing guys that seemingly come out of nowhere leading up to the draft. That said, the Pats have openings in their LB corps, if not in 2008 then in 2009 and beyond. Mayo may not start immediately, but obviously his versatility plays into the kind of backer Bill Belichick covets.

LB Keith Rivers was selected 9th overall by the Cincinnati Bengals. This is one of those picks that appears to be both “best player available” AND fills a major need. The Bengals defense ranked just 27th in yards allowed and 24th in points allowed last year, and desperately needs young playmakers. Rivers fits that bill. He can rush the passer, is a sure tackler and should not be a liability in coverage.

Fantasy Impact: Linebackers are the big-time fantasy playmakers in IDP leagues and Rivers should have a clear path to starting early for the Bengals. Expect Rivers to be a tackling machine right out of the gates.

DE/LB Vernon Gholston was the last remaining player in the green room at Radio City Music Hall; but he didn’t have to wait long. The home town New York Jets drafted the uber athletic pass rusher with the 6th overall pick; and will likely pair him alongside free agent Calvin Pace in an effort to dramatially reshape the team’s 3-4 pass rush.

Fantasy Impact: Assuming Gholston gets into camp and earns a starting job early; he could be a worthwhile fantasy spot in IDP leagues. Regarding the Jets team defense, Gholston has to be viewed in combination with the Jets other moves this offseason. Clearly the team hopes to completely turn around last year’s disappointing performance; and Gholston will be a big (and expensive) part of that.

Lest anyone think Bill Parcells was going to take a measured approach toward rebuilding the woeful Miami Dolphins, think again. In what has to be the busiest single day in the history of NFL free agency, Parcells and his staff have signed a flurry of players in an attempt to right a ship that finished 1-15 a season ago. The Dolphins had approximately $40mm under the cap to spend; and Parcells appears ready to use every last bit of it. Today’s signings ranged from veteran locker room guys (e.g., Jason Ferguson and Sean Ryan) to potential Pro Bowlers (e.g., Calvin Pace). And considering the team’s cap situation, Parcells probably isn’t done yet.

A Recap of Bill’s Frenzied Friday

LB Calvin Pace — Rated as one of the top players at his position, Pace is exactly the kind of player Parcells’ covets. Pace is big (a converted defensive end) and thrived as the rush ‘backer in the Cardinals 3-4 last year. Although this isn’t official yet, several reports have the Fins giving Pace $20mm guaranteed. The addition of Pace raises questions about whether the team plans on keeping Joey Porter around. NOTE: Despite earlier reports, Pace did not sign with Miami but instead signed a 6-year, $42mm deal with the Jets.

OG Justin Smiley — The Dolphins signed Smiley to a 5-year, $25mm deal including $9mm in guarantees. Smiley has been a starter for most of his career (in San Francisco) and significantly upgrades the interior of the Dolphins line. Smiley helped open holes for Frank Gore and will likely slide in between center Samson Satele and LT L.J. Shelton.

DT Randy Starks — Considering how much defensive tackles are netting at the start of free agency, this signing seems like a downright steal. The Dolphins signed the 24-year old tackle to a 5-year, $21mm deal with $7mm in guarantees. Starks may not be a star (he lost his starting job in Tennessee to Tony Brown) but he’s got the size (6′3″, 314 pounds) and technique to emerge in the Fins scheme.

QB Josh McCown — McCown was a part-time starter in Arizona and Oakland, and may find himself starting in Week One for Miami depending on what else the Dolphins do this preseason. Given a 2-year, $6.25mm contract; McCown is very much a safety valve until John Beck (or someone else not currently on the roster) are ready to take over full-time. This isn’t a major financial commitment, nor should it be considering McCown has never finished a season with a passer rating above 74.9.

WR Ernest Wilford — Wilford was deemed expendable by the Jaguars after the acquisitions of Jerry Porter and Troy Williamson; but he quickly found a new home in Miami signing a 4-year, $13mm deal with $6mm in guarantees. Last year, Wilford caught 45 passes for 518 yards while scoring three times. He’s not a difference maker per se, but his addition will help stabilize the intermediate passing game. Wilford is a big (6′4″, 218 pounds) receiver with loads of starting experience, and will compliment the speedy Ted Ginn Jr.

TE Sean Ryan — Ryan is another long-time Parcells favorite. Signed to a one-year deal, this is more about bringing in a high character guy that Parcells thinks will help the locker room as well as special teams. Ryan isn’t going to be asked to do much offensively; he has a whopping 9 career receptions in four seasons. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

NT Jason Ferguson – Ferguson just didn’t fit into Wade Phillips attacking scheme in Dallas, but should have a place in Dallas’ system. The Cowboys traded Ferguson to Miami today, reuniting him with Parcells for the third time in his 12-year career. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

These moves probably are just the beginning as Parcells, GM Jeff Ireland and the coaching staff look to fundamentally alter the DNA of this team and return the Dolphins to prominence.

For fanatics like us, the NFL has no offseason. Immediately after the Super Bowl it’s time to finish up the coaching carousel, assess NFL free agency and prepare for the NFL draft. Before we know it, mini-camps will be underway and the next thing we know, it’s TIME TO GET READY FOR SOME FOOTBALL!

Today, we start our look at NFL free agency with the LINEBACKERS:

First, the bad news…Karlos Dansby (ARI) and Terrell Suggs (BAL) were tagged by their respective teams, removing two of the best young players from the free agent pool.

Now, the good news…the linebacker crop remains strong with a number of Pro Bowl caliber prospects as well as a number of proven veterans who, if they can stay healthy, will contribute in 2008.

The Top Outside Linebackers

1. Lance Briggs (6′1″, 240 pounds, 27 years old) – Briggs was tagged in 2007, but the Bears were contractually forbidden from tagging him again. Despite having a down year, he’s the coveted prize of the LB crop and will garner one of the biggest contracts in league history at his position
2. Calvin Pace (6′4″, 270 pounds, 27 years old) — Pace benefits from being in the same free agent class as teammate Karlos Dansby. Few teams would’ve let Pace, a huge converted defensive end, hit free agency after a wildly successful season as a 3-4 OLB [98 tackles, 6.5 sacks]; but the Cardinals tagged Dansby, leaving the door for Pace to explore free agency.
3. Clark Haggans (6′4″, 243 pounds, 31 years old) – Haggans is the latest Steelers linebacker to be afforded free agency as the team looks to rebuild via youth and the draft. At 31, he can still contribute and earn every penny of a multi-year deal. While his numbers weren’t eye popping in 2007 [56 tackles, 4 sacks], he has experience [61 starts] and proven pass rush ability [32.5 sacks].
4. Kawika Mitchell (6′1″, 253 pounds, 28 years old) — Mitchell is by no means a star, but he played an integral role in the Giants Super Bowl run and seemed to elevate his game as the playoffs commenced. After four seasons in KC, Mitchell got his chance in New York and made the most of it; we expect he’ll re-sign with New York because they have a need at LB and he would be hard pressed to garner a starting job for big dollars elsewhere.
5. Landon Johnson (6′2″, 232 pounds, 26 years old) — Johnson is young and could be this year’s Mitchell. In the right scheme, there’s no reason he can’t be a productive help defender. Despite an absence of big plays (3.5 sacks in 4 years, 1 INT), he has 53 starts under his belt and has notched 100+ tackles in consecutive seasons.
6. Victor Hobson (6′0″, 252 pounds, 27 years old) – Hobson never settled into a starring role under Eric Mangini but he’s a four year starter with experience in both a 3-4 and 4-3 alignment. Hobson is probably best suited in a 4-3 and given his age and experience, should garner a shot at playing time for another team in 2008.

The Top Inside Linebackers

1. Zach Thomas (5′11″, 228 pounds, 34 years old) – The 7-time Pro Bowler was deemed expendable after an injury-shortened season in 2007 (5 games), but if healthy Thomas remains an intriguing option at inside linebacker. Even last season, Thomas averaged better than 10 tackles per game and has averaged more than 150 tackles over the last six seasons. He has already been offered a contract by the Saints, and has visited the Patriots, too. (UPDATE: Thomas signed a one-year, $3mm deal with the Dallas Cowboys)
2. Tedy Bruschi (6′1″, 247 pounds, 34 years old) — Hard to imagine Bruschi will play for anyone other than the Patriots, but in the off chance he opts to test the market, he can still contribute (92 tackles, 2 sacks last year). The most likely outcome is either retirement or another season in New England.
3. Derek Smith (6′2″, 240 pounds, 34 years old) – Smith was released by San Francisco this week but intends to latch on with another team. Injuries have curtailed his output over the last two seasons but, when healthy, he’s a disciplined tackler and field leader.
4. Al Wilson (6′0″, 240 pounds, 30 years old) – Wilson was one of the best interior linebackers in the game until a neck injury forced him into retirement. Medically cleared to re-enter the league, Wilson has been touring the league looking for a place to re-start his career. Assuming he’s healthy (an admittedly big assumption), Wilson would be a low risk/high reward option for a team looking to solidify the interior of its front seven.
5. Dan Morgan (6′2″, 245 pounds, 29 years old) — If ability was the only criteria, Morgan would rank much higher but unfortunately his durability counts against him. A victim of multiple concussions, Morgan has never played more than 13 games in a season and only played four of the last 32 games for Carolina. Despite his health issues, several teams have brought him in for a look. Expect Morgan to sign a one-year, incentive laden deal on a team that will give him a shot at starting.
6. Mark Simoneau (6′0″, 245 pounds, 31 years old) – Simoneau has been a starter in Philadelphia and New Orleans but the fact NO has brought in Zach Thomas and Dan Morgan for workouts suggests his days are numbered in the Big Easy; at least as a starter. Not sure he’ll be in high demand (the market will have to come to him) but don’t count him out for a multi-year deal and a chance to start for some team in need.

The (Near) Complete List

Want to discuss the free agent outlook further? We’ve started a thread in our Shark Pool forum; we would love to hear your thoughts.

The deadline for teams to apply the franchise or transition tag designations ended at 4:30 pm EST yesterday; so now it’s time to recap what happened and evaluate some of the moves (and non-moves).

Twelve (12) teams used the franchise tag designation:

• CB Nmandi Asomugha (Oakland)
• CB Marcus Trufant (Seattle)
• DE Jared Allen (Kansas City)
• DT Albert Haynesworth (Tennessee)
• DT Corey Williams (Green Bay)
• LB Karlos Dansby (Arizona)
• LB Terrell Suggs (Baltimore)
• OT Stacy Andrews (Cincinnati)
• OT Jordan Gross (Carolina)
• S Ken Hamlin (Dallas)
• TE Dallas Clark (Indianapolis)
• TE L.J. Smith (Philadelphia)

Most Surprising Tag: Stacy Andrews

Andrews played quite well last season, but it was his first year as a starter. The Bengals still have Levi Jones and Willie Anderson in the picture; although that may change now that Andrews has been tagged. Given the importance of Carson Palmer and Andrews’ age, the move isn’t a total shocker; although few outside of die hard Bengals fans expected it.

Most Surprising Non-Tag: Randy Moss 

As we discussed last night, not tagging Randy Moss is shocking only if they don’t already have a long-term deal completed; but unannounced until the February 29th start of free agency. We expect he IS under contract, but if this proves untrue, this may be the most shocking non-tag decision of the modern era.

Other Surprising Non-Tags 

• OT Flozell Adams (Dallas) – Adams is no spring chicken, and the Cowboys did use their tag on someone else (Ken Hamlin), but this is a bold move if the Cowboys don’t end up re-signing Adams. He has played at a high level the last few seasons and the team doesn’t have someone of his caliber (or close to it) currently on the roster. Will Jerry Jones be willing to go to battle with a young, unproven tackle in 2008?
• PK Josh Brown (Seattle) — The Seahawks tagged Brown last year and it was thought he could be tagged again this season; but now free agency looms. It’s never an easy decision to let a proven kicker walk, but perhaps they didn’t see the logic in making him the highest paid PK in the league.

Interesting Tag Minutiae

• Exclusive tag versus non-exclusive – As we discussed earlier this week, Nmandi Asomugha was tagged with an exclusive franchise designation, meaning the Raiders paid him more (the average of the 2008 top 5 projected salaries versus the 2007 in a normal tag) in exchange for keeping Asomugha from being able to negotiate with other teams. It’s telling that only one of twelve teams opted to use this tag; as it involves paying a player more yet brings less wiggle room. Why a team would pass up the idea of getting 2 first round picks if a team wants their free agent badly enough is a mystery (the Raiders would still have had the right to match).
• Is Suggs a linebacker or defensive end? — The Baltimore Ravens tagged Terrell Suggs as a linebacker, but he has filed a grievance contending he should be paid as a defensive end. The difference? About $800K for the one-year tender. This matter will be settled shortly (if Suggs lined up more than 50% of the snaps as an end, he’ll get his extra dough), but it’s odd that Suggs, who has gone to the Pro Bowl twice as a LINEBACKER would think of himself otherwise.

Most Likely to Sign a Long-term Deal: Dallas Clark

OK, this is cheating since Clark already signed a 6-year deal to remain with the Colts.

Least Likely to Sign a Long-term Deal:  L.J. Smith

The Eagles remain concerned about Smith’s health and likely won’t agree to a long-term extension without seeing improvement on the field. This is basically a one-year option to retain a talented, system TE in a very weak free agent market for tight ends.

How did we do in our predictions?

We previewed each division and our thoughts on potential tag candidates. Overall, I’d say we did quite well.

• We correctly predicted 9 of 10 ‘definites’; our only whiff was on Randy Moss
• We noted that Flozell Adams and Ken Hamlin were possibilities in Dallas [although we leaned toward Adams]
• We noted that Brown and Trufant were possibilities in Seattle [and leaned toward Trufant]
• We noted DT Corey Williams and WR Bernard Berrian as possible tags [one out of two]
• We suggested that Justin Smith shouldn’t be tagged

Now it’s onto free agency and the NFL draft!
Related Blogs:

• ‘Tis the Season for Tagging
• NFC East Potential Tag Candidates
• NFC North Potential Tag Candidates
• NFC South Potential Tag Candidates
• NFC West Potential Tag Candidates
• AFC East Potential Tag Candidates
• AFC North Potential Tag Candidates
• AFC South Potential Tag Candidates
• AFC West Potential Tag Candidates

Baltimore Ravens

LB Terrell Suggs

Suggs has five years in the league yet won’t turn 26 until October. Although his sack totals were down this year (just 5), he’s a proven play-maker who is many years younger than a typical marquee free agent. The Ravens can ill afford to let him leave after losing Adalius Thomas last offseason.

xxxxx

Cincinnati Bengals

DE Justin Smith

Last season the Bengals opted to tag DE Justin Smith despite questions about whether he was an elite defensive end. The logic was that he was a hard worker, and one of the few plus defenders on a defense that needed lots of improvement. Fast forward to this offseason and reports are again surfacing that Smith may get tagged; which, if true, begs the question: WHY? Smith notched only 2 sacks last year and has never had more than the 8.5 of his rookie season. The Bengals defense was awful last year and is more than one player away. In addition, the team has other major issues at play including: T.J. Houshmandzadeh wants a raise, Chad Johnson isn’t necessarily happy, and the team has other key free agents (Williams, Andrews, Johnson).

Cleveland Browns

The Browns resurgent 2007 brings with it challenges in free agency. RB Jamal Lewis gambled on a one-year deal last year and delivered a monster season which should bring him a market rate, multi-year deal. While Lewis is important to the Browns, his age and career workload likely precludes them from tagging him. The other major free agent is QB Derek Anderson; but Anderson is a restricted free agent so Cleveland has the right to match any offer. As a result, don’t look for the Browns to use either designation.

Pittsburgh Steelers

OG Alan Faneca is the best free agent guard on the market, and has been an important cog in the Steelers offensive machine for years. Yet, I’m not listing him as a potential tag candidate because the Steelers seem ready to let him leave via free agency.

Arizona Cardinals

LB Karlos Dansby

The Cardinals have two free agent linebackers that are among the most compelling options in free agency: Karlos Dansby and Calvin Pace. While Pace is talented and someone the Cardinals would like to have back, it’s Dansby that’s almost assuredly going to be tagged because he’s emerging as one of the preeminent defensive playmakers in the NFC.

     
St. Louis Rams

The Rams have a handful of free agents but none that warrant either the franchise or transition tag designation.

San Francisco 49ers

GM Scott McCloughan has gone on record saying the team has no intentions of using the franchise tag on any of its key free agents. The team has a few key free agents it would do well to retain (e.g., Isaac Sopaoga and Larry Allen) but neither are worth the kind of money a franchise designation would incur.

Seattle Seahawks

Option 1: PK Josh Brown

The Seahawks don’t want to lose their star place kicker and, as a result, may tag him again. Recall that Browns was the team’s franchise player last season, but the team was unable to come to terms on a multi-year deal. Given the modest differential between the top paid kickers and the middle-of-the-road alternatives, the Seahawks would be foolish to let Brown enter free agency; either they will sign him long-term over the next week or he’ll get tagged because…

Option 2: CB Marcus Trufant

The ‘hawks don’t want to be in the position of having to let Marcus Trufant hit the open market. Trufant is one of the best young corners in the league and, were he to hit free agency, could potentially garner the kind of monster offer Nate Clements received from San Francisco last season. Our bet is that Seattle comes to terms with Brown on a deal in the next few days, allowing them to tag Trufant.

On our free IDP-centric discussion board over the next few weeks, we’ll be creating a number of simple metrics to squeeze as much information out of the 2007 season as possible. In Part 1, we’ll rank this season’s linebackers by the percentage of their team’s solo tackles for which they were responsible. This measure will give us an idea of how often a given linebacker was around the ball and should confirm some of our tightly held beliefs about how certain schemes affect the production of the players within them.

You can find the full spreadsheet and accompanying discussion, which includes 75 of the league’s most active linebackers, in this thread in our IDP Forum. The discussion in the forum thread includes some limitations in the metric and some tweaks to the numbers of a few players (eg. Jon Beason and David Harris) to make their entries more meaningful.

Here are the top ten linebackers by this metric:

1. Zach Thomas — 15.74% (5 games)

2. Patrick Willis — 15.64%

3. David Harris — 15.02% (9 games as starter)

4. Jon Beason — 12.72%

5. Nick Barnett — 12.67%

6. D.J. Williams — 12.63%

7. Mike Peterson — 12.02%

8. London Fletcher — 11.95%

9. Kirk Morrison — 11.64%

10. DeMeco Ryans — 11.24%

The top ten is a Who’s Who of stud 4-3 MLB and 3-4 ILB talent. It’s worth noting that two of the top three players on this list are 3-4 ILB. We’ve said it before and will continue to drive the point home. There’s no reason a 3-4 ILB cannot be productive with a favorable skill set, scheme and surrounding cast. It should also come as little surprise to those who follow defensive schemes closely that the two teams who play schemes most resembling that of noted defensive mind Jim Bates, who prioritizes funneling plays to a MLB protected by big DTs, both placed their MLB in the top ten (DEN and GB).

Other findings of note:

Houston’s young stud MLB DeMeco Ryans would have finished 4th on this list, with a percentage of 13.47 of his team’s total solo tackles, had he continued on the pace he set before suffering a number of lower leg injuries over the last month of the season.

After controlling for the games in which each played MLB only, Mike Peterson appears to be significantly more active than Daryl Smith in Jacksonville. Peterson ranks 7th with a percentage of 12.02%, while Smith ranks 61st with a percentage of only 7.34%. Despite the small sample size, that strongly suggests that Peterson is around the ball much more than Smith at MLB. Similar stat lines occurred in 2006. It’s difficult not to conclude that Smith will never be a major IDP factor as a MLB in Jacksonville. Buyer beware if Smith starts there in future seasons.

Four Tampa-2 WLBs placed in the top 30 by this metric. Ernie Sims (15), Freddie Keiaho (16) and Lance Briggs (22) all placed higher on a per game basis than their MLB counterparts. That supports our long held belief that T2 WLB get plenty of extra opportunity and, while a T2 MLB still has value, he’ll have to get significantly more raw opportunity to keep pace with his more traditional 4-3 MLB peers.

The highest ranking linebacker that does not play every down is Matt Wilhelm (32). Wilhelm’s ranking is interesting for two reasons. First, it drives home the point that a player who doesn’t participate in nickel and dime packages (and Wilhelm does play in some sub-packages) definitely loses value to the rest of the pack. Second, it’s more data that argues how valuable the weak side inside linebacker in a 1-gap 3-4 scheme is in IDP circles. Wilhelm, who played in fewer sub-packages than his ILB counterpart Stephen Cooper, STILL ranked higher than Cooper in this metric. Since Cooper has proven himself a solid NFL talent, that’s an eye-opening stat.

There are plenty of other interesting considerations suggested by the data set. Take a look and drop by our IDP Forum for the best offseason discussion in the industry.

Here are the top 5 players on our Cheatsheets at each position, for Week One:

Quarterback (QB)

1. Peyton Manning - IND vs NO
2. Drew Brees - NO at IND
3. Tom Brady - NE at NYJ
4. Tony Romo - DAL vs NYG
5. Carson Palmer - CIN vs BAL

Running Back (RB)

1. LaDainian Tomlinson - SD vs CHI
2. Steven Jackson - STL vs CAR
3. Willie Parker - PIT at CLE
4. Joseph Addai - IND vs NO
5. Frank Gore - SF vs ARI

Wide Receiver (WR)

1. Terrell Owens - DAL vs NYG
2. Steve Smith - CAR at STL
3. Marvin Harrison - IND vs NO
4. Chad Johnson - CIN vs BAL
5. Reggie Wayne - IND vs NO

Tight End (TE)

1. Antonio Gates - SD vs CHI
2. Jeremy Shockey - NYG at DAL
3. Todd Heap - BAL at CIN
4. Chris Cooley - WAS vs MIA
5. Kellen Winslow Jr - CLE vs PIT

Defense/Special Teams (DST)

1. Chicago Bears - CHI at SD
2. Baltimore Ravens - BAL at CIN
3. Miami Dolphins - MIA at WAS
4. San Diego Chargers - SD vs CHI
5. New England Patriots - NE at NYJ

Kicker (PK)

1. Adam Vinatieri - IND vs NO
2. Olindo Mare - NO at IND
3. Josh Brown - SEA vs TB
4. Josh Scobee - JAX vs TEN
5. David Akers - PHI at GB

Defensive Line (DL)

1. Jason Taylor - MIA at WAS
2. Aaron Kampman - GB vs PHI
3. Derrick Burgess - OAK vs DET
4. Aaron Schobel - BUF vs DEN
5. Terrell Suggs - BAL at CIN

Linebacker (LB)

1. Keith Bulluck - TEN at JAX
2. London Fletcher - WAS vs MIA
3. Antonio Pierce - NYG at DAL
4. DeMeco Ryans - HOU vs KC
5. Ray Lewis - BAL at CIN

Defensive Back (DB)

1. Adrian Wilson - ARI at SF
2. Chris Hope - TEN at JAX
3. Sean Jones - CLE vs PIT
4. Roy Williams - DAL vs NYG
5. Troy Polamalu - PIT at CLE

Our complete cheatsheets are available for subscribers HERE. We also provide customized cheatsheets (tailored to your scoring system) as well as customized player projections. If you haven’t decided whether or not to subscribe to Footballguys yet; here a few reasons why we think it’s money well spent.

Ed Bouchette wrote an interesting article on LB James Harrison Wednesday, 8/29. It appears that James Harrison has ascended to be the unquestioned starter in Joey Porter’s old spot on the Pittsburgh defense - right outside linebacker.

Harrison is way below the IDP radar right now as he is a career backup to this point in his career, with a mere 17 fantasy points to his credit last year (163rd on the LB board at year’s end). He’s not even ranked on most fantasy LB boards right now.

However, in the article linked above we read:

Into the breach steps James Harrison, a former undrafted rookie who was cut by the Steelers, twice, then cut by Baltimore, then re-signed by the Steelers as an afterthought one week before training camp because Clark Haggans had a broken hand. Not only will he start at right outside linebacker, where Joey Porter and Greg Lloyd played before him, Harrison expects to surpass the productivity of either of them in one season.

‘My personal goal, I want to try to get at least 12 sacks,’ Harrison said yesterday.

If Harrison can approach Porter’s productivity this season, he could perhaps match Porter’s best fantasy season (2002 - 16 games, 61 tackles, 28 assists, 9 sacks, 2 fumble recoveries, 4 interceptions - 122 fantasy points, 14th overall LB that year) or at least land in the top 40 at his position, as Porter did during 2005 (40 tackles, 17 assists, 11 sacks, 4 forced fumbles, 1 fumble recovery, 2 interceptions and 4 passes defensed - 104 fantasy points for 37th LB at year’s end).

Right now you can probably land Harrison deep in your draft and stash him at #5 or #6 LB on your bench. If he lives up to his goals, you’ll have grabbed a productive fantasy LB for a song. If he flops or gets injured, you haven’t invested much anyway - this guy is a high upside, low risk pick at the moment.

Happy Drafting!

Footballguys.com hard-hitting IDP coverage returns to The Audible this week with a in-depth look at every major breaking news story and heated positional battle on the defensive side of the ball. Host Sigmund Bloom, Eyes of the Guru author John Norton and Jene Bramel provide the analysis in a roundtable discussion on the only IDP podcast available on the internet.In the first of back-to-back episodes, the IDP crew discuss:

• The impact of Jeremiah Trotter’s release
• How the loss of Chike Okeafor will affect Arizona’s plans
• The emergence of Patrick Willis and Paul Posluszny
• Gibril Wilson’s move to FS
• Why Ahmad Brooks and Adalius Thomas require a second look
• What the Broncos might do without Ebenezer Ekuban
• Donovin Darius and the Oakland safety situation
• Whether Deon Grant might become the Chris Hope of 2007

If that’s not enough IDP goodness for you, be sure to check out the soon-to-be-released second episode, which will feature more discussion on the prospects of D.J. Williams, Matt Wilhelm and Stephen Cooper, Jon Beason, the probable decline of Andra Davis, which young DE have the best chance of making an impact in 2007 and much, much, much more.

Keep an eye on The Audible podcast page for the latest IDP Roundtable episodes, which will be released weekly as free content for the rest of the regular season. And if you’re thinking about taking the plunge and joining an IDP or a grizzled IDP vet of many years, make sure you’ve listened to our five part Ultimate Guide to IDP Leagues podcast extravaganza (Vol 89a-e) available on our podcast page.

In what many will see as a stunning move, the Philadelphia Eagles released Jeremiah Trotter today. While the timing of the move may be shocking, Trotter’s release won’t be that big of a surprise to those who have been following the team closely this offseason.The Eagles management had been softening its fan base for this move for months. Shortly after the regular season ended, the team leaked a myriad of its concerns about Trotter. The team publicly noted Trotter’s decline in play in 2006, referencing his age, weight and conditioning and troublesome knees. The Eagle defensive staff made little effort to hide a desire to limit Trotter’s snaps this season and installed second year player Omar Gaither as the primary nickel backer. They went so far as to hint that Trotter would play 60% of the snaps at best and hinted to beat writers that he should continue retiring due to his knee problems.

So why wait until the middle of training camp? The needed to be certain that veteran acquisition Takeo Spikes was healthy enough to play every down at WLB and that second year player Chris Gocong could successfully make the transition to SLB after missing all of last season after going on IR with a nagging neck injury as camp ended. With the reports that Gocong was ready and Spikes flying sideline-to-sideline without difficulty, the team no longer needed Trotter as insurance. With Omar Gaither already proving himself down the stretch in 2006, Trotter was expendable in the middle.

Today’s ESPN story from Len Pasquarelli suggests that Takeo Spikes will be moved to the middle, presumably to get Omar Gaither into the lineup at WLB. Unless he has an inside source, he’s likely incorrect. The Eagles intended to make Gaither a MLB after drafting him last year and, except when he was pressed into duty at WLB in 2006 because of the difficulties that Matt McCoy and Shawn Barber had there, Gaither has taken the bulk of his practice snaps at MLB with the second team. Gaither was slated to take MLB duties in the nickel packages and he’s the likely inheritor of the MLB position.

Dynasty leaguers should have already been all over Gaither, as we’ve been hyping him as the heir apparent since draft day in 2006. Redraft owners who were waiting to see what happened before making a move should get Gaither at the top of their free agent lists. In Jim Johnson’s aggressive scheme, an every down MLB will be IDP gold. Trotter produced 90 plus solo tackle seasons (102 in 2005) with a handful of sacks and coverage stats in this scheme. Gaither will