It’s hard to believe that it took the loss of Philip Daniels to season-ending knee surgery to get the always active Daniel Snyder to trade for sack master Jason Taylor. But shortly after Daniels was lost for the season in 7-on-7 drills in practice, the team put together a package (2nd and 6th round draft picks) to acquire the 33-year old defensive end from the Miami Dolphins.

It’s no secret that Taylor has been on the market since the day Bill Parcells took over the franchise. While it’s unclear why Parcells and Taylor seemed ill at ease with one another, the fact remains a deal to move the 6-time Pro Bowler has been in the works for a long time.

Taylor, who chose to spend his offseason Dancing with the Stars instead of practicing with the fins joins a team that plays a 4-3 defensive front and is in desperate need of another defensive playmaker. While Taylor isn’t a spring chicken, he’s inarguably among the best conditioned athletes in the league and remains highly effective:

• Taylor had 11 sacks last year
• His 117 career sacks put him 14th all-time
• He has six seasons of 10+ sacks, including the last three consecutively
• Taylor hasn’t missed a game since 1999

What does this mean for fantasy owners?

Washington ranked 16th last year with 33 sacks. The addition of Taylor should push them into the top-10; which means more chances for the defensive secondary to make big plays on the ball, to boot. The Redskins are a team in flux this year with a new head Coach (Jim Zorn), offensive coordinator (Sherm Smith) and defensive coordinator (Greg Blache) but now have a weapon that might make them competitive in the toughest division in the NFC. The ability to generate big plays (sacks, INTs, defensive TDs) is the difference between being a fantasy afterthought or an every week starting option. The Skins MAY have just moved from the former to the latter.

In case you haven’t been following the Mike Vick saga closely since he was banished from the league, the disgraced quarterback continues to haunt the Falcons, even from his prison cell.

The reasons that Vick is still a bogeyman to the Falcons have to do with more than merely the continuing bad PR and the embarrassment of the Falcons’ front office. The NFL has mandated that unless the Falcons recover actual $ from Vick, they will receive no cap relief for the amount of money that Vick owes them for breach of his contract. In other words, even though the Falcons and their fans were defrauded by Vick and cheated out of the quarterback play that they paid for in advance, and even though a court has determined that Vick owes the team $3.75 million in bonus money for breaching his contract, unless Vick feels like handing over the cash, the team and Atlanta fans are out of luck. Too bad, so sad.

Of course, the felon is seeking bankruptcy protection, claiming to be between $10 and $50 million in debt (though how it is possible to owe somewhere between $10 and $50 million but not be able to be more specific than a range of $40 million is a mystery to me). If Vick is really broke or simply hiding his assets in off-shore accounts is something for the courts to sort out - the bottom line is that Atlanta is going to have less money than the rest of the NFL to spend in free agency and on their own players while they rebuild the squad in the wake of the Vick debacle.

It hardly seems fair that Atlanta’s team, players, and the few remaining Falcons’ fans should have to foot the bill for a deceptive, profligate, animal-abusing thug, but that is the effect of the NFL’s ruling in this matter. Vick is a specter who can’t be exorcised, it appears.

2.32: Phillip Merling, DE, Miami Dolphins

Pass rusher had some injury woes but was effective off the edge when healthy. Has the size (6′5″, 272 pounds) that Bill Parcells covets. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.33: Donnie Avery, WR, St. Louis Rams

Quite a surprise. The first WR off the board is a small, uber fast guy considered a mid round pick by most scouts. Hard to believe he can replace Isaac Bruce without a few years of seasoning. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.34: Devin Thomas, WR, Washington Redskins (via Oakland through Atlanta)

The Redskins draft the WR many expected to be first off the WR board. Devin Thomas only had one big year at Michigan but has great size (6′2″, 215 pounds) and can also help as a kickoff returner. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.35: Brandon Flowers, CB, Kansas City Chiefs

If Flowers ran a tenth of a second faster, he would’ve been a mid 1st rounder. Great choice for the rebuilding Chiefs. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.36: Jordy Nelson, WR, Green Bay Packers (via New York Jets)

Another surprising WR selection. Was WR really a need for Green Bay with Driver, Jennings and Jones on the roster? Should help on special teams right away. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.37: Curtis Lofton, LB, Atlanta Falcons

Tackling machine, ideally suited for the inside where he can flow downfield to the ball. Not someone good in space and must be put in the right scheme to succeed. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.38: John Carlson, TE, Seattle Seahawks (via Baltimore)

Mike Holmgren called this a need, and the ‘hawks felt Carlson was a perfect fit for their West Coast offense. Carlson put up big numbers with Brady Quinn under center, as a reminder. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.39: Chilo Rachal, OG, San Francisco 49ers

Rachal gets knocked for not being a great athlete, but he’s technically sound and has a mean streak. As long as he plays inside and isn’t asked to pull and extend to the 2nd level much, he could be a starter immediately. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.40: Tracy Porter, CB, New Orleans Saints

Ironic that the Saints draft a cornerback with the 40th pick; considering there were rumors all week that the 40th pick would be part of a package to acquire Eagles CB Lito Sheppard. Porter is good at tracking the ball but isn’t a sure tackler or much help supporting the run.

2.41: James Hardy, WR, Buffalo Bills

The Bills landed the top corner in the draft last round and, in my opinion, the best receiver in the draft at 2.41. Hardy is a big guy who isn’t afraid of contact. He goes up for the ball and runs good routes; which helps offset a lack of breakaway speed.

2.42: Eddie Royal, WR, Denver Broncos

Royal is one of a handful of receivers who also project as solid returner at the next level. At only 5′8″, 184 pounds, Royal will need to prove he can hold up as a receiver over the course of the season. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.43: Tyrell Johnson, S, Minnesota Vikings (via Carolina through Philadelphia)

Kenny Phillips has the bigger name, but Johnson may have the bigger game. The Vikes continue to bolster their defense with another solid young, physical player. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.44: Matt Forte, RB, Chicago Bears

I’m not crazy about Forte; I don’t believe he’s a special back nor was he the best back left on the board. However, Forte has his supporters and it’s not inconceivable he could earn the starting gig over Cedric Benson sooner rather than later.

2.45: Jordon Dizon, OLB, Detroit Lions

Dizon lacks ideal size and speed; but like many solid NFL linebackers before him, he just makes plays. He’s instinctive and a sound tackler; exactly the kind of guy Rod Marinelli can build around. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.46: Jerome Simpson, WR, Cincinnati Bengals

Further proof that beauty is in the eye of the beholder at WR this year. Simpson wasn’t close to the best WR prospect on the board, but clearly the Bengals felt otherwise. At least, this pick fills a need given the release of Chris Henry and concerns about Chad Johnson’s status.

2.47: Trevor Laws, DT, Philadelphia Eagles (via Minnesota)

The Eagles finally make a pick, and it’s clearly a “best player available” selection. Defensive tackle was hardly a major need, but Laws is a high character, high motor guy who will add depth to an already young tackle rotation.

2.48: Fred Davis, TE, Washington Redskins (via Houston through Atlanta)

The Redskins are committed to getting QB Jason Campbell weapons. First Devin Thomas and now a pass-receiving tight end a few picks later. Davis doesn’t project into an elite tight end, but the Redskins don’t need him to be given the presence of Chris Cooley.

2.49: DeSean Jackson, WR/KR, Philadelphia Eagles

Many Birds fans wouldn’t have complained if Jackson was the pick in the 1st round. So to trade down, grab a 2009 1st rounder as compensation and get DeSean anyway was a coup. He’s tiny (169 pounds) but is blazing fast and unstoppable in the open field. He instantly gives the Eagles the best returner they’ve had in 5 years.

2.50: Calais Campbell, DE, Arizona Cardinals

You don’t find many 6′8″, 280 pound ends; yet Campbell fell into the 2nd round because of an uneven 2007 season. He was a stud in 2006 and, as long as the Cards play him at the right position, should combine with free agent Clark Haggans to improve the Cards pass rush.

2.51: Malcolm Kelly, WR, Washington Redskins

Sure, he’s slower than you would like. But have teams watched this kid play? He’s a polished route runner, has great hands and excellent body control. Very reminiscent of the year Chad Johnson fell because of his slow 40-time; the Skins got a steal.

2.52: Quentin Groves, DE, Jacksonville Jaguars (via Tampa Bay)

The Jags have a stifling defense already, but they aren’t great at putting pressure on opposing QBs. Adding Quentin Groves in the 2nd after taking Derrick Harvey 8th overall goes a long way to changing the Jags pass rush. Groves character issues aside, this was a solid pick.

2.53: Limas Sweed, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers

Some scouts love Sweed, some see him as a bust. At 53rd overall, the Steelers aren’t risking a lot financially to find out if he’s the next Plaxico Burress. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.54: Jason Jones, DE, Tennessee Titans

Jones could replace Antwan Odom right away, but he’s a bit raw to expect that. Eventually the Titans see Jones as a capable 2-way end in their 4-3 defense. His skill set is more suited to defensive tackle, but his size projects him as an end.

2.55: Ray Rice, RB, Baltimore Ravens (via Seattle)

Ray Rice is a local product who was wildly productive as the main ball carrier for Rutgers. While he lacks prototypical size, his low center of gravity and style make him more than capable of being an every down back if needed.

2.56: Brian Brohm, QB, Green Bay Packers (via Cleveland)

Now that’s kind of surprising. Or is it? The Pack took Aaron Rodgers in the 1st when Brett Favre was under center, so why wouldn’t they take the most accurate QB prospect in the 2nd round given Rodgers inexperience? Worst case, he’s a backup for a few years. Best case, he outplays Rodgers and ends up starting in a year or two.

2.57: Chad Henne, QB, Miami Dolphins (via San Diego)

How about that? It looks like Jake Long may be blocking for Chad Henne for a few more years. Another smart pick. He could easily outplay Beck and McCown to win the job; at the very lesaet he’s a big armed, young backup for a good price.

2.58: Dexter Jackson, WR/KR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (via Jacksonville)

This was a reach pick. While Jackson is another potentially dangerous return man; he needs a lot of maturing as a route runner before he can reasonably play WR on a regular basis. Blistering speed (4.33) though and dangerous in the open field.

2.59: Mike Pollak, OG/C, Indianapolis Colts

A classic Colts pick. Their only 1st day pick and it’s a fundamentally sound center that they project as a starting offensive guard for now and possibly a replacement for Jeff Saturday later. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.60: Patrick Lee, DB, Green Bay Packers

A hard worker, Lee may someday start at corner but not for a few seasons. In the meantime, he can be a force on special teams and perhaps play nickel back particularly in run support situations. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.61: Martellus Bennett, TE, Dallas Cowboys

I like this pick more than most. For my money, Bennett was the top TE in this draft. He’s huge, is a good blocker who can become great, and should be a key red zone target given his height and willingness to go up for the ball. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.62: Terrence Wheatley, CB, New England Patriots

The Pats always seem to find value and this was no exception. Wheatley is a legitimate shutdown cover corner who, were it not for myriad injuries in college, would’ve been in the hunt for a top 15 selection. Either way, he’ll help the Pats on defense and special teams.

2.63: Terrell Thomas, CB, New York Giants

Thomas is the 217th USC Trojan to be drafted in the first two rounds (not really, just feels that way). If the Giants view him as a corner, I don’t like this pick. But if they’re going to try to convert him to safety; where his deficiencies can be obfuscated somewhat, the choice makes more sense.

The Seahawks struck gold a few years ago when they drafted an underappreciated USC defender (Lofa Tatupu). Today, they hope to have done the same, drafting DE Lawrence Jackson at the end of the 1st round; about a round earlier than most expected. Jackson has good size and credentials, but really struggled against double teams and lacks top end speed; which may make it difficult for him to generate a pass rush at the NFL level.

Fantasy Impact: The Seahawks already have a studly fantasy defense; Jackson is more about maintaining the existing level of performance than increasing the ‘hawks pass rush.

DE Derrick Harvey was selected by the Jacksonville Jaguars with the 8th overall pick, moving up all the way from 26th to the spot previously held by the Baltimore Ravens. The Jaguars put a premium on acquiring a pass rush this draft and felt Harvey, a Florida Gator who came out after his junior year, was worthy of the move into the top 10. While I don’t necessarily share their view, Harvey was the consensus best pass rusher after Chris Long and Vernon Gholston.

Fantasy Impact: The Jaguars are already a contender, but an outside pass rusher was a clear need. Harvey should start immediately and, if he’s up to snuff, could add a dynamic to the Jags defense that has been lacking. New DC Gregg Williams loves to blitz and that’s only possible if you have ends and backers that can get after it with regularity.

DE Chris Long was selected 2nd overall by the St. Louis Rams. Long is a high motor, high character defensive end with a fantastic pedigree (he’s the son of Hall of Famer Howie Long); and will help fix one of the league’s worst defenses.

Fantasy Impact: In redraft leagues, Long should help make the Rams marginally more attractive but, by himself, it’s still difficult to project the Rams as a fantasy worth defensive unit.

Wow, sometimes I just don’t get it. The Minnesota Vikings acquire DE Jared Allen from the Kansas City Chiefs and sign him to a new contract, and I see hosts of people on radio, TV and internet message boards saying that the Vikings OVERPAID. While I can see, on the surface, why some people may have that initial reaction, I frankly think it’s conventional thinking and, with just a little analysis, people will come to realize that this move was nothing short of a NO-BRAINER for the Vikings.

First, let’s get the terms of the trade out of the way:

Vikings Get:

• DE Jared Allen
• 6th round pick (6.21 — 187th overall)

Chiefs Get:

• 1st round pick (1.17 — 17th overall)
• 3rd round pick (3.10 — 73rd overall)
• 3rd round pick (3.19 — 82nd overall)
• 6th round pick (6.16 — 182nd overall)

In conjunction with the trade, the Vikings gave Allen a new 6-year contract worth up to $74mm with incentives. The deal includes $31mm in guarantees; and puts Allen among the league’s highest paid defenders.

For those who might not realize, the 2007 Minnesota Vikings were the first team in NFL history to lead the league in both rushing offense and defense yet miss the playoffs. This team isn’t in rebuilding mode, it’s a team that could easily compete for a top seed in the NFC playoffs, particularly with the retirement of Brett Favre; the NFC North is wide open for the Vikes’ taking.

For the naysayers, let me offer you not one but two perspectives on why this deal made a ton of sense for Minnesota:

Approach #1: The Peer Group Comparison

Let’s say you turned on Sportscenter and read that the Vikings acquired Julius Peppers from the Panthers instead. Better yet, let’s say they acquired Dwight Freeney for the same draft compensation from Indianapolis. How many NFL pundits and fans would be singing the Vikings praises then? Yet, here’s the thing…Jared Allen is AS GOOD IF NOT BETTER than either Peppers or Freeney.

• Julius Peppers — 28 years old, 90 games played, 56 sacks, 31 passes defensed, 288 tackles
• Dwight Freeney — 28 years old, 88 games played, 60 sacks, 11 passes defensed, 190 tackles
• Jared Allen — 26 years old, 61 games played, 43 sacks, 25 passes defense, 227 tackles

Allen is:

• Two years younger
• Healthier
• Averaged more sacks per game (0.70 vs. 0.68 & 0.62)
• Averaged more passes defensed per game (0.41 vs. 0.13 & 0.34)
• Averaged more tackles per game (3.72 vs. 2.16 & 3.20)

Approach #2: The Draft Value Chart Comparison

By now everyone knows that most NFL teams utilize a derivative of the same draft trade chart that was first popularized by Jimmy Johnson back in his Cowboys coaching days. This is the tried and true chart teams use to evaluate trading up or down on draft day. The chart assigns a point value to each pick and declines with each successive pick.

According to the most common version of the trade chart, the value of the picks KC received was:

• 17th = 950 points
• 73rd = 225 points
• 82nd = 180 points
• 182nd = 18.6 points
• TOTAL = 1,373.6 points

In order for most GMs to make this trade, they have to feel they’re getting back equivalent or better value. The value of the 6th round pick the Vikes acquired = 16.6 points, which means:

• 187th = 16.6 points
• DIFFERENTIAL = 1,357 points

In order for the deal to make sense, Jared Allen should be “worth” at least 1,357 points on the draft chart. According to the draft chart:

• 9th overall = 1,350 points
• 8th overall = 1,400 points

Does ANYONE want to argue that Jared Allen isn’t worth the 8th or 9th overall pick in this year’s draft? You’re getting a 26 year old proven ELITE defensive end. Frankly, if we’re being intellectually honest, Jared Allen would be the 1st overall pick WITHOUT QUESTION if he were draft eligible this year. He’s a proven commodity at an elite position. Yet, all the Vikings really need out of him is the value of the 8th or 9th pick in the draft.

Let’s not mince words. Barring injury, this deal was a LAYUP for the Vikings. Keep in mind what Jared Allen has accomplished and then consider who his defensive linemates were in Kansas City. Now, he gets to line up alongside Kevin and Pat Williams; the best 4-3 tackles in the NFC. The Vikes added the league’s best young defensive end to a defense that already led the league in rushing defense. Even if their pass offense continues to struggle this season, the combination of a stifling defense and the NFC’s top rushing offense should give them as easy a road to the playoffs as any team in the NFC.

Congrats to the Vikings fans; as an Eagles season ticket holder I’m jealous.

A lot of people are scratching their heads today. On the eve of free agency, the Oakland Raiders have signed Tommy Kelly to a 7-year, $50.5mm deal, making him — wait for it — the HIGHEST PAID DEFENSIVE TACKLE IN LEAGUE HISTORY. Yes, you heard that right folks…the Raiders signed the relatively unknown lineman for more money ($18mm guaranteed) than any lineman to ever suit up in the league.

So who is Tommy Kelly? He’s 6′6″, 300 pound defensive end that’s going to move inside to play undertackle in place of retired Warren Sapp. As you can see from his measurables, Kelly is built more like a defensive tackle; and the Raiders obviously think he can flourish inside. That said, Kelly’s best season was 2006 when he logged 68 tackles and 3.5 sacks. Last year, Kelly started six games but tore his ACL and was lost for the second half of the season.

If you think the Raiders overpaid for Kelly’s services, you’re not alone. Adam Schefter remarked on tonight’s NFL Total Access that a number of personnel executives were stunned by the signing. Now, if Kelly turns out to be a Pro Bowl caliber defensive tackle, the deal would be justified.

Cory Redding REDUX? Before Raiders fans get too excited, let’s remember what happened to Lions fans last season. A year ago, the Lions signed Cory Redding to a monster deal, making him the highest paid lineman. Lions fans pointed toward Redding’s solid 2006 (47 tackles, 8 sacks) and argued that Redding was on the verge of becoming a dominant young tackle. Well, a year later Redding logged a whopping 37 tackles and ONE SACK in 16 starts for one of the worst defenses in the league. This deal sure smells a lot like that one, doesn’t it?

Who benefits? That’s an easy one…any defensive tackle that’s up for a new contract benefits. Imagine the dance of joy going on at Tommie Harris’ house tonight. Think of how much the Titans are going to have to pay Albert Haynesworth if they want him to sign a multi-year extension instead of the one year franchise tender.

If there’s one lesson to take from this [aside from Al Davis’ growing senility], it’s that this year’s free agent class is going to land huge contracts by historical standards. With the rising salary cap combined with an unprecedented amount of salary cap room; teams are flush with cash and will find reasons to spend their money.

The deadline for teams to apply the franchise or transition tag designations ended at 4:30 pm EST yesterday; so now it’s time to recap what happened and evaluate some of the moves (and non-moves).

Twelve (12) teams used the franchise tag designation:

• CB Nmandi Asomugha (Oakland)
• CB Marcus Trufant (Seattle)
• DE Jared Allen (Kansas City)
• DT Albert Haynesworth (Tennessee)
• DT Corey Williams (Green Bay)
• LB Karlos Dansby (Arizona)
• LB Terrell Suggs (Baltimore)
• OT Stacy Andrews (Cincinnati)
• OT Jordan Gross (Carolina)
• S Ken Hamlin (Dallas)
• TE Dallas Clark (Indianapolis)
• TE L.J. Smith (Philadelphia)

Most Surprising Tag: Stacy Andrews

Andrews played quite well last season, but it was his first year as a starter. The Bengals still have Levi Jones and Willie Anderson in the picture; although that may change now that Andrews has been tagged. Given the importance of Carson Palmer and Andrews’ age, the move isn’t a total shocker; although few outside of die hard Bengals fans expected it.

Most Surprising Non-Tag: Randy Moss 

As we discussed last night, not tagging Randy Moss is shocking only if they don’t already have a long-term deal completed; but unannounced until the February 29th start of free agency. We expect he IS under contract, but if this proves untrue, this may be the most shocking non-tag decision of the modern era.

Other Surprising Non-Tags 

• OT Flozell Adams (Dallas) – Adams is no spring chicken, and the Cowboys did use their tag on someone else (Ken Hamlin), but this is a bold move if the Cowboys don’t end up re-signing Adams. He has played at a high level the last few seasons and the team doesn’t have someone of his caliber (or close to it) currently on the roster. Will Jerry Jones be willing to go to battle with a young, unproven tackle in 2008?
• PK Josh Brown (Seattle) — The Seahawks tagged Brown last year and it was thought he could be tagged again this season; but now free agency looms. It’s never an easy decision to let a proven kicker walk, but perhaps they didn’t see the logic in making him the highest paid PK in the league.

Interesting Tag Minutiae

• Exclusive tag versus non-exclusive – As we discussed earlier this week, Nmandi Asomugha was tagged with an exclusive franchise designation, meaning the Raiders paid him more (the average of the 2008 top 5 projected salaries versus the 2007 in a normal tag) in exchange for keeping Asomugha from being able to negotiate with other teams. It’s telling that only one of twelve teams opted to use this tag; as it involves paying a player more yet brings less wiggle room. Why a team would pass up the idea of getting 2 first round picks if a team wants their free agent badly enough is a mystery (the Raiders would still have had the right to match).
• Is Suggs a linebacker or defensive end? — The Baltimore Ravens tagged Terrell Suggs as a linebacker, but he has filed a grievance contending he should be paid as a defensive end. The difference? About $800K for the one-year tender. This matter will be settled shortly (if Suggs lined up more than 50% of the snaps as an end, he’ll get his extra dough), but it’s odd that Suggs, who has gone to the Pro Bowl twice as a LINEBACKER would think of himself otherwise.

Most Likely to Sign a Long-term Deal: Dallas Clark

OK, this is cheating since Clark already signed a 6-year deal to remain with the Colts.

Least Likely to Sign a Long-term Deal:  L.J. Smith

The Eagles remain concerned about Smith’s health and likely won’t agree to a long-term extension without seeing improvement on the field. This is basically a one-year option to retain a talented, system TE in a very weak free agent market for tight ends.

How did we do in our predictions?

We previewed each division and our thoughts on potential tag candidates. Overall, I’d say we did quite well.

• We correctly predicted 9 of 10 ‘definites’; our only whiff was on Randy Moss
• We noted that Flozell Adams and Ken Hamlin were possibilities in Dallas [although we leaned toward Adams]
• We noted that Brown and Trufant were possibilities in Seattle [and leaned toward Trufant]
• We noted DT Corey Williams and WR Bernard Berrian as possible tags [one out of two]
• We suggested that Justin Smith shouldn’t be tagged

Now it’s onto free agency and the NFL draft!
Related Blogs:

• ‘Tis the Season for Tagging
• NFC East Potential Tag Candidates
• NFC North Potential Tag Candidates
• NFC South Potential Tag Candidates
• NFC West Potential Tag Candidates
• AFC East Potential Tag Candidates
• AFC North Potential Tag Candidates
• AFC South Potential Tag Candidates
• AFC West Potential Tag Candidates

Baltimore Ravens

LB Terrell Suggs

Suggs has five years in the league yet won’t turn 26 until October. Although his sack totals were down this year (just 5), he’s a proven play-maker who is many years younger than a typical marquee free agent. The Ravens can ill afford to let him leave after losing Adalius Thomas last offseason.

xxxxx

Cincinnati Bengals

DE Justin Smith

Last season the Bengals opted to tag DE Justin Smith despite questions about whether he was an elite defensive end. The logic was that he was a hard worker, and one of the few plus defenders on a defense that needed lots of improvement. Fast forward to this offseason and reports are again surfacing that Smith may get tagged; which, if true, begs the question: WHY? Smith notched only 2 sacks last year and has never had more than the 8.5 of his rookie season. The Bengals defense was awful last year and is more than one player away. In addition, the team has other major issues at play including: T.J. Houshmandzadeh wants a raise, Chad Johnson isn’t necessarily happy, and the team has other key free agents (Williams, Andrews, Johnson).

Cleveland Browns

The Browns resurgent 2007 brings with it challenges in free agency. RB Jamal Lewis gambled on a one-year deal last year and delivered a monster season which should bring him a market rate, multi-year deal. While Lewis is important to the Browns, his age and career workload likely precludes them from tagging him. The other major free agent is QB Derek Anderson; but Anderson is a restricted free agent so Cleveland has the right to match any offer. As a result, don’t look for the Browns to use either designation.

Pittsburgh Steelers

OG Alan Faneca is the best free agent guard on the market, and has been an important cog in the Steelers offensive machine for years. Yet, I’m not listing him as a potential tag candidate because the Steelers seem ready to let him leave via free agency.

Denver Broncos

The Broncos don’t have any free agents that are obvious fits for either the franchise or transition tag designation.

Kansas City Chiefs

DE Jared Allen

The Chiefs are expected to tag Jared Allen with an eye toward signing him to a long-term deal before the July 15th deadline. Allen had 15.5 sacks this season and has averaged 11 sacks per season over his 4-year career. Pass rushers of Allen’s ability simply don’t get into the open market very often.

Oakland Raiders

CB Nmandi Asomugha

Rumors persist that Asomugha will be franchised if the team can’t come to terms on a long-term deal before the tagging deadline. The 5-year veteran is considered a cornerstone of the team’s young, energetic defense and; given the price of free agent corners, it might not be as shocking a decision to tag him as one might think. That said, Asomugha is coming off a disappointing season following his breakout 2006 campaign. The team wouldn’t be tagging Asomugha for the player he already is; but rather for the player they think he can become.

San Diego Chargers

The Chargers don’t have many key free agents, and aren’t likely to utilize their tag designations.

Mario Williams just wrapped up a 3.5 sack game tonight against the Broncos, giving him 13 on the season (2nd in the NFL). He’s been a dominant pass rusher and, unlike many of today’s pass rushers, has the size to consistently stop the run. It seems that the Texans got absolutely filleted when they chose Williams over Reggie Bush and Vince Young last April. Yet, I wonder if as many people would say it was a mistake in retrospect.

Reggie Bush has struggled mightily and is now injured; while the Texans could use a feature back history tells us it’s far easier to find a productive runner than a dominant pass rusher. And while Vince Young still has many believers, he’s struggled at times this year while the Texans appear to have not one, but TWO above average passers on the roster. Sage Rosenfels has played extremely well, and while Matt Schaub has battled injuries, it would be hard to argue the combination of those two isn’t a decent option.

Here are the top 5 players on our Cheatsheets at each position, for Week One:

Quarterback (QB)

1. Peyton Manning - IND vs NO
2. Drew Brees - NO at IND
3. Tom Brady - NE at NYJ
4. Tony Romo - DAL vs NYG
5. Carson Palmer - CIN vs BAL

Running Back (RB)

1. LaDainian Tomlinson - SD vs CHI
2. Steven Jackson - STL vs CAR
3. Willie Parker - PIT at CLE
4. Joseph Addai - IND vs NO
5. Frank Gore - SF vs ARI

Wide Receiver (WR)

1. Terrell Owens - DAL vs NYG
2. Steve Smith - CAR at STL
3. Marvin Harrison - IND vs NO
4. Chad Johnson - CIN vs BAL
5. Reggie Wayne - IND vs NO

Tight End (TE)

1. Antonio Gates - SD vs CHI
2. Jeremy Shockey - NYG at DAL
3. Todd Heap - BAL at CIN
4. Chris Cooley - WAS vs MIA
5. Kellen Winslow Jr - CLE vs PIT

Defense/Special Teams (DST)

1. Chicago Bears - CHI at SD
2. Baltimore Ravens - BAL at CIN
3. Miami Dolphins - MIA at WAS
4. San Diego Chargers - SD vs CHI
5. New England Patriots - NE at NYJ

Kicker (PK)

1. Adam Vinatieri - IND vs NO
2. Olindo Mare - NO at IND
3. Josh Brown - SEA vs TB
4. Josh Scobee - JAX vs TEN
5. David Akers - PHI at GB

Defensive Line (DL)

1. Jason Taylor - MIA at WAS
2. Aaron Kampman - GB vs PHI
3. Derrick Burgess - OAK vs DET
4. Aaron Schobel - BUF vs DEN
5. Terrell Suggs - BAL at CIN

Linebacker (LB)

1. Keith Bulluck - TEN at JAX
2. London Fletcher - WAS vs MIA
3. Antonio Pierce - NYG at DAL
4. DeMeco Ryans - HOU vs KC
5. Ray Lewis - BAL at CIN

Defensive Back (DB)

1. Adrian Wilson - ARI at SF
2. Chris Hope - TEN at JAX
3. Sean Jones - CLE vs PIT
4. Roy Williams - DAL vs NYG
5. Troy Polamalu - PIT at CLE

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Every year, there are a number of second- and third-year defensive ends that break out as they grow into their position physically and mentally. Last year, saw Robert Geathers, Bobby McCray and Aaron Kampman explode onto the NFL scene with double digit sacks. Veteran IDPers know how important it is to find undervalued defensive players late in drafts and on the waiver wire and there looks to be a deeper list of candidates along the defensive line this season than any in recent memory. Don’t forget about Geathers and McCray, who will both have expanded roles this year, but keep a watchful eye on the following candidates to grab late in your draft or as early season free agents.

Stanley McClover (CAR) — McClover declared for the 2006 draft as a college junior and fell to the seventh round due to concerns about his physical maturity. McClover spent most of 2006 on the inactive lists, learning from Julius Peppers and Mike Rucker. After adding 15 pounds to his already considerable edge rushing skills, McClover’s solid offseason may have earned him the majority of snaps in the base defense this year. He may still rotate with Mike Rucker and Charles Johnson, but has big potential if he can get 40 or more snaps a game.

Ray Edwards (MIN) — The Vikings have been waiting for someone to stay healthy and productive long enough to generate a consistent pass rush. Kenechi Udeze hasn’t been able to do it, neither has Erasmus James. Edwards flashed at times last year and has been given the RDE job. His primary responsibility will be rushing the quarterback in Leslie Frazier’s aggressive scheme.

Elvis Dumervil (DEN) — I suggested avoiding Dumervil in IDP leagues in one of my weekly Reading the Defense subscriber columns last season, dismissing him as a situational pass rusher. Two things have changed since then. First, Dumervil gets the benefit of lining up a little wider in Jim Bates’ defensive scheme, which will give him a better angle to get to the quarterback and allow him to maximize his speed rush while minimizing his size disadvantage. Second, the loss of Ebenezer Ekuban will significantly increase Dumervil’s snaps. Dumervil showed his explosiveness in 2006 and may better those numbers in 2007. A must roster in big play leagues.

Darryl Tapp (SEA) — With the mediocre Grant Wistrom and Bryce Fisher finally on the outs, Tapp gets his opportunity in 2007. Another undersized pass rusher who took some extra time to mature, Tapp will start opposite free agent acquisition Patrick Kerney. If he can hold up as an every down player, Tapp also has big pass rush potential.

Justin Tuck (NYG) — Tuck’s value is dependent on Michael Strahan staying home. After getting lost in the depth the Giants had at end over the past two seasons, Tuck is in line for a starting job if Strahan elects not to play with Mathias Kiwanuka moved to SLB. Tuck is a very solid all-around defensive end and opposing offensive coordinators will be focusing on Osi Umenyiora. Tuck is very likely to go undrafted, but needs to be watched very closely if Strahan sits.

Mario Williams (HOU) — Williams is probably still valued by most casual IDP owners on name recognition. He should be firmly on your radar should he slip. Williams wasn’t nearly as bad as the media made him out to be last year when comparing him to Reggie Bush. Struggling through a toe problem, Williams held his own. With his explosiveness likely back in 2007, we may finally see the all-around talent that made him the first overall pick last year.

Jamaal Anderson (ATL) — Anderson is the only 2007 rookie on this list. Rookie defensive ends rarely have an every-down impact but those that do (Hali, Peppers, etc) often fit Anderson’s profile. Impact rookie defensive ends are usually mostly polished players. They have a solid frame to stand up at the point of attack. They have some understanding of how to use their hands and lower body in leverage. They have more than one pass rush move. You’ll find a one-trick pass rusher (Dwight Freeney) or situational stud (Mark Anderson) now and then, but the rookie DEs to target in IDP redrafts are those with the best all-around skill sets.

Footballguys.com hard-hitting IDP coverage returns to The Audible this week with a in-depth look at every major breaking news story and heated positional battle on the defensive side of the ball. Host Sigmund Bloom, Eyes of the Guru author John Norton and Jene Bramel provide the analysis in a roundtable discussion on the only IDP podcast available on the internet.In the first of back-to-back episodes, the IDP crew discuss:

• The impact of Jeremiah Trotter’s release
• How the loss of Chike Okeafor will affect Arizona’s plans
• The emergence of Patrick Willis and Paul Posluszny
• Gibril Wilson’s move to FS
• Why Ahmad Brooks and Adalius Thomas require a second look
• What the Broncos might do without Ebenezer Ekuban
• Donovin Darius and the Oakland safety situation
• Whether Deon Grant might become the Chris Hope of 2007

If that’s not enough IDP goodness for you, be sure to check out the soon-to-be-released second episode, which will feature more discussion on the prospects of D.J. Williams, Matt Wilhelm and Stephen Cooper, Jon Beason, the probable decline of Andra Davis, which young DE have the best chance of making an impact in 2007 and much, much, much more.

Keep an eye on The Audible podcast page for the latest IDP Roundtable episodes, which will be released weekly as free content for the rest of the regular season. And if you’re thinking about taking the plunge and joining an IDP or a grizzled IDP vet of many years, make sure you’ve listened to our five part Ultimate Guide to IDP Leagues podcast extravaganza (Vol 89a-e) available on our podcast page.