2.32: Phillip Merling, DE, Miami Dolphins

Pass rusher had some injury woes but was effective off the edge when healthy. Has the size (6′5″, 272 pounds) that Bill Parcells covets. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.33: Donnie Avery, WR, St. Louis Rams

Quite a surprise. The first WR off the board is a small, uber fast guy considered a mid round pick by most scouts. Hard to believe he can replace Isaac Bruce without a few years of seasoning. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.34: Devin Thomas, WR, Washington Redskins (via Oakland through Atlanta)

The Redskins draft the WR many expected to be first off the WR board. Devin Thomas only had one big year at Michigan but has great size (6′2″, 215 pounds) and can also help as a kickoff returner. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.35: Brandon Flowers, CB, Kansas City Chiefs

If Flowers ran a tenth of a second faster, he would’ve been a mid 1st rounder. Great choice for the rebuilding Chiefs. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.36: Jordy Nelson, WR, Green Bay Packers (via New York Jets)

Another surprising WR selection. Was WR really a need for Green Bay with Driver, Jennings and Jones on the roster? Should help on special teams right away. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.37: Curtis Lofton, LB, Atlanta Falcons

Tackling machine, ideally suited for the inside where he can flow downfield to the ball. Not someone good in space and must be put in the right scheme to succeed. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.38: John Carlson, TE, Seattle Seahawks (via Baltimore)

Mike Holmgren called this a need, and the ‘hawks felt Carlson was a perfect fit for their West Coast offense. Carlson put up big numbers with Brady Quinn under center, as a reminder. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.39: Chilo Rachal, OG, San Francisco 49ers

Rachal gets knocked for not being a great athlete, but he’s technically sound and has a mean streak. As long as he plays inside and isn’t asked to pull and extend to the 2nd level much, he could be a starter immediately. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.40: Tracy Porter, CB, New Orleans Saints

Ironic that the Saints draft a cornerback with the 40th pick; considering there were rumors all week that the 40th pick would be part of a package to acquire Eagles CB Lito Sheppard. Porter is good at tracking the ball but isn’t a sure tackler or much help supporting the run.

2.41: James Hardy, WR, Buffalo Bills

The Bills landed the top corner in the draft last round and, in my opinion, the best receiver in the draft at 2.41. Hardy is a big guy who isn’t afraid of contact. He goes up for the ball and runs good routes; which helps offset a lack of breakaway speed.

2.42: Eddie Royal, WR, Denver Broncos

Royal is one of a handful of receivers who also project as solid returner at the next level. At only 5′8″, 184 pounds, Royal will need to prove he can hold up as a receiver over the course of the season. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.43: Tyrell Johnson, S, Minnesota Vikings (via Carolina through Philadelphia)

Kenny Phillips has the bigger name, but Johnson may have the bigger game. The Vikes continue to bolster their defense with another solid young, physical player. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.44: Matt Forte, RB, Chicago Bears

I’m not crazy about Forte; I don’t believe he’s a special back nor was he the best back left on the board. However, Forte has his supporters and it’s not inconceivable he could earn the starting gig over Cedric Benson sooner rather than later.

2.45: Jordon Dizon, OLB, Detroit Lions

Dizon lacks ideal size and speed; but like many solid NFL linebackers before him, he just makes plays. He’s instinctive and a sound tackler; exactly the kind of guy Rod Marinelli can build around. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.46: Jerome Simpson, WR, Cincinnati Bengals

Further proof that beauty is in the eye of the beholder at WR this year. Simpson wasn’t close to the best WR prospect on the board, but clearly the Bengals felt otherwise. At least, this pick fills a need given the release of Chris Henry and concerns about Chad Johnson’s status.

2.47: Trevor Laws, DT, Philadelphia Eagles (via Minnesota)

The Eagles finally make a pick, and it’s clearly a “best player available” selection. Defensive tackle was hardly a major need, but Laws is a high character, high motor guy who will add depth to an already young tackle rotation.

2.48: Fred Davis, TE, Washington Redskins (via Houston through Atlanta)

The Redskins are committed to getting QB Jason Campbell weapons. First Devin Thomas and now a pass-receiving tight end a few picks later. Davis doesn’t project into an elite tight end, but the Redskins don’t need him to be given the presence of Chris Cooley.

2.49: DeSean Jackson, WR/KR, Philadelphia Eagles

Many Birds fans wouldn’t have complained if Jackson was the pick in the 1st round. So to trade down, grab a 2009 1st rounder as compensation and get DeSean anyway was a coup. He’s tiny (169 pounds) but is blazing fast and unstoppable in the open field. He instantly gives the Eagles the best returner they’ve had in 5 years.

2.50: Calais Campbell, DE, Arizona Cardinals

You don’t find many 6′8″, 280 pound ends; yet Campbell fell into the 2nd round because of an uneven 2007 season. He was a stud in 2006 and, as long as the Cards play him at the right position, should combine with free agent Clark Haggans to improve the Cards pass rush.

2.51: Malcolm Kelly, WR, Washington Redskins

Sure, he’s slower than you would like. But have teams watched this kid play? He’s a polished route runner, has great hands and excellent body control. Very reminiscent of the year Chad Johnson fell because of his slow 40-time; the Skins got a steal.

2.52: Quentin Groves, DE, Jacksonville Jaguars (via Tampa Bay)

The Jags have a stifling defense already, but they aren’t great at putting pressure on opposing QBs. Adding Quentin Groves in the 2nd after taking Derrick Harvey 8th overall goes a long way to changing the Jags pass rush. Groves character issues aside, this was a solid pick.

2.53: Limas Sweed, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers

Some scouts love Sweed, some see him as a bust. At 53rd overall, the Steelers aren’t risking a lot financially to find out if he’s the next Plaxico Burress. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.54: Jason Jones, DE, Tennessee Titans

Jones could replace Antwan Odom right away, but he’s a bit raw to expect that. Eventually the Titans see Jones as a capable 2-way end in their 4-3 defense. His skill set is more suited to defensive tackle, but his size projects him as an end.

2.55: Ray Rice, RB, Baltimore Ravens (via Seattle)

Ray Rice is a local product who was wildly productive as the main ball carrier for Rutgers. While he lacks prototypical size, his low center of gravity and style make him more than capable of being an every down back if needed.

2.56: Brian Brohm, QB, Green Bay Packers (via Cleveland)

Now that’s kind of surprising. Or is it? The Pack took Aaron Rodgers in the 1st when Brett Favre was under center, so why wouldn’t they take the most accurate QB prospect in the 2nd round given Rodgers inexperience? Worst case, he’s a backup for a few years. Best case, he outplays Rodgers and ends up starting in a year or two.

2.57: Chad Henne, QB, Miami Dolphins (via San Diego)

How about that? It looks like Jake Long may be blocking for Chad Henne for a few more years. Another smart pick. He could easily outplay Beck and McCown to win the job; at the very lesaet he’s a big armed, young backup for a good price.

2.58: Dexter Jackson, WR/KR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (via Jacksonville)

This was a reach pick. While Jackson is another potentially dangerous return man; he needs a lot of maturing as a route runner before he can reasonably play WR on a regular basis. Blistering speed (4.33) though and dangerous in the open field.

2.59: Mike Pollak, OG/C, Indianapolis Colts

A classic Colts pick. Their only 1st day pick and it’s a fundamentally sound center that they project as a starting offensive guard for now and possibly a replacement for Jeff Saturday later. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.60: Patrick Lee, DB, Green Bay Packers

A hard worker, Lee may someday start at corner but not for a few seasons. In the meantime, he can be a force on special teams and perhaps play nickel back particularly in run support situations. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.61: Martellus Bennett, TE, Dallas Cowboys

I like this pick more than most. For my money, Bennett was the top TE in this draft. He’s huge, is a good blocker who can become great, and should be a key red zone target given his height and willingness to go up for the ball. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

2.62: Terrence Wheatley, CB, New England Patriots

The Pats always seem to find value and this was no exception. Wheatley is a legitimate shutdown cover corner who, were it not for myriad injuries in college, would’ve been in the hunt for a top 15 selection. Either way, he’ll help the Pats on defense and special teams.

2.63: Terrell Thomas, CB, New York Giants

Thomas is the 217th USC Trojan to be drafted in the first two rounds (not really, just feels that way). If the Giants view him as a corner, I don’t like this pick. But if they’re going to try to convert him to safety; where his deficiencies can be obfuscated somewhat, the choice makes more sense.

Giants fans waited a long time to hear their team’s first pick; but I’m most would agree it was worth the wait. The defending Super Bowl champs biggest need was at safety because Gibril Wilson left for Oakland in free agency. As it turned out, the Giants landed the top safety on the board in Miami’s Kenny Phillips. Phillips has all the tools: size, speed, tackling ability, reaction time. The only issue is that he’s too aggressive at times and that lead to defensive breakdowns. Expect coordinator Steve Spagnuolo to work on that in training camp.

Fantasy Impact: Minimal for now, but in IDP leagues safeties can rack up the points.

The Chargers needed help in the defensive backfield and didn’t hesitate to select CB Antoine Cason. Cason probably went a little earlier than some expected, but this was right about the level considering the other defensive backs that were already selected. Cason projects as a zone corner, he hasn’t shown the one-on-one coverage ability that some of the other 1st round CBs have in their collegiate careers.

Fantasy Impact: The Chargers are good about adding value where they see it, and in Cason they added depth to the defensive backfield. Don’t expect much from Cason in 2008, either as a fantasy contributor or as someone who improves the overall productivity of the defensive unit.

The Cowboys are getting aggressive. The Boys moved back into the 1st round just a few picks after selecting Felix Jones to focus on defensive this time around. South Florida CB Mike Jenkins was the pick; which certainly makes sense relative to who was left on the defensive back pre-draft rankings. Jenkins was inconsistent on film, sometimes looking like a potential Pro Bowl shutdown corner, at other times he’s looked bad enough to not be taken on the first day. Not surprisingly, coaches will focus on the good film and tell themselves they can teach him to stop making the mistakes that show up on the bad film.

Fantasy Impact: Not much. The Cowboys already had their corner position solidified with the acquisition of Pacman Jones. This probably means Anthony Henry will move to center in training camp; and it also gives the Cowboys leverage when Terence Newman’s contract comes up next year.

CB Aqib Talib isn’t an immediate need pick; so the Bucs clearly are taking someone they felt was the best player available. The Bucs already have Phil Buchanon, Ronde Barber and Eugene Wilson at corner, so Talib probably won’t see PT outside of nickel or dime situations for a year or two.

Fantasy Impact: Talib made some big plays for the surprising Kansas Jayhawks this season, but scouts were torn on whether he was an elite CB prospect. The Bucs Cover-2 requires a different skill set than many teams look for at corner, so maybe that explains why he went at 1.20 with so many talented CBs on the board.

The Cardinals top need was defensive back, and they added CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie with the 16th pick. DRC, cousin to Pro Bowl Antonio Cromartie, played as small Tennessee State and wasn’t on the draft pundits radar until this season. He’s an exceptional athlete and, while raw and untested against top competition, was too physically dominant in postseason workouts to pass up apparently.

Fantasy Impact: Minimal; other than DRC may help strengthen the Cardinals pass defense and, in turn, slightly increase the defenses overall productivity.

CB Leodis McKelvin becomes the first cornerback off the board; and likely starts a run on cornerbacks in the next part of the 1st round. McKelvin may not have played at a big program (Troy), but his game film is impeccable and he more than held his own at postseason bowls and workouts. He’s a physical cover corner with fluid hips and, most importantly, is a special PR/KR to boot. The Bills get help at corner and the return man they were desperate for.

Fantasy Impact: If McKelvin is as talented a returner as we think, the Bills fantasy defense could be an intriguing sleeper particularly if you get points for return yardage.

Asante Samuel, considered the top defensive free agent by most, wasted little time in finding a new home. Today he signed a 6-year, $57mm deal with the Philadelphia Eagles. Samuel has an astounding 16 interceptions in the last two seasons, excluding the game-changing picks he made in the playoffs, as well.

Why the Eagles made this move…

Inexplicably, more than a few Eagles fans (and radio hosts) wondered today why this was the Eagles big free agent move. Putting aside the absurdity of questioning the acquisition of the premiere free agent in this year’s crop, there is an extremely obvious reason why this move makes inordinate sense:

• 11 interceptions
• 19 takeaways

The Eagles were among the worst in the league last season at creating turnovers; and that kept a top 10 defense (statistically) from being a real difference maker. Samuel single-handedly changes that dynamic.

But what about Lito Sheppard?

Lito Sheppard is, in his own right, an excellent cornerback and unheralded for his importance to the Eagles defensive scheme. Unfortunately, Sheppard has missed 14 regular season games in the last three seasons and has a reputation for being a “slow healer.” He’s also expressed unhappiness about his contract status.

So is Lito going to be an Eagle in 2008?

There are two telling quotes from Andy Reid today that paint the picture:

1)  “We’re obviously trying to strengthen the defense,” Reid said. “Obviously, I think the cornerback position is very important. When you have an opportunity to get the best one in the business, then you need to look at that. I welcome him aboard, and I know [defensive coordinator] Jim Johnson has great plans for Asante.

2)  Head coach Andy Reid said Samuel will be his starting left cornerback for 2008. Beyond that, Reid said “we’ll work things out from there.”

Lito wants a bigger contract, and is now losing his spot to the league’s highest paid corner. Does that sound like Lito is in the Birds’ plans for 2008?

OK, so what are the Eagles going to do with Lito?

Expect the Eagles to aggressively pursue a trade opportunity. Sheppard is a Pro Bowl corner and signed through 2011; so he’s got immense trade value. Several teams have already expressed an interest in him. What can the Eagles expect back in return? That’s entirely dependent on the team in question. Sheppard could be packaged with one or two of the Eagles draft picks for an upgrade at receiver (think Roy Williams or Larry Fitzgerald) OR he could be swapped for a pass rusher like Jared Allen. Is either move likely? NO, of course not. But possible? Certainly so.

The deadline for teams to apply the franchise or transition tag designations ended at 4:30 pm EST yesterday; so now it’s time to recap what happened and evaluate some of the moves (and non-moves).

Twelve (12) teams used the franchise tag designation:

• CB Nmandi Asomugha (Oakland)
• CB Marcus Trufant (Seattle)
• DE Jared Allen (Kansas City)
• DT Albert Haynesworth (Tennessee)
• DT Corey Williams (Green Bay)
• LB Karlos Dansby (Arizona)
• LB Terrell Suggs (Baltimore)
• OT Stacy Andrews (Cincinnati)
• OT Jordan Gross (Carolina)
• S Ken Hamlin (Dallas)
• TE Dallas Clark (Indianapolis)
• TE L.J. Smith (Philadelphia)

Most Surprising Tag: Stacy Andrews

Andrews played quite well last season, but it was his first year as a starter. The Bengals still have Levi Jones and Willie Anderson in the picture; although that may change now that Andrews has been tagged. Given the importance of Carson Palmer and Andrews’ age, the move isn’t a total shocker; although few outside of die hard Bengals fans expected it.

Most Surprising Non-Tag: Randy Moss 

As we discussed last night, not tagging Randy Moss is shocking only if they don’t already have a long-term deal completed; but unannounced until the February 29th start of free agency. We expect he IS under contract, but if this proves untrue, this may be the most shocking non-tag decision of the modern era.

Other Surprising Non-Tags 

• OT Flozell Adams (Dallas) – Adams is no spring chicken, and the Cowboys did use their tag on someone else (Ken Hamlin), but this is a bold move if the Cowboys don’t end up re-signing Adams. He has played at a high level the last few seasons and the team doesn’t have someone of his caliber (or close to it) currently on the roster. Will Jerry Jones be willing to go to battle with a young, unproven tackle in 2008?
• PK Josh Brown (Seattle) — The Seahawks tagged Brown last year and it was thought he could be tagged again this season; but now free agency looms. It’s never an easy decision to let a proven kicker walk, but perhaps they didn’t see the logic in making him the highest paid PK in the league.

Interesting Tag Minutiae

• Exclusive tag versus non-exclusive – As we discussed earlier this week, Nmandi Asomugha was tagged with an exclusive franchise designation, meaning the Raiders paid him more (the average of the 2008 top 5 projected salaries versus the 2007 in a normal tag) in exchange for keeping Asomugha from being able to negotiate with other teams. It’s telling that only one of twelve teams opted to use this tag; as it involves paying a player more yet brings less wiggle room. Why a team would pass up the idea of getting 2 first round picks if a team wants their free agent badly enough is a mystery (the Raiders would still have had the right to match).
• Is Suggs a linebacker or defensive end? — The Baltimore Ravens tagged Terrell Suggs as a linebacker, but he has filed a grievance contending he should be paid as a defensive end. The difference? About $800K for the one-year tender. This matter will be settled shortly (if Suggs lined up more than 50% of the snaps as an end, he’ll get his extra dough), but it’s odd that Suggs, who has gone to the Pro Bowl twice as a LINEBACKER would think of himself otherwise.

Most Likely to Sign a Long-term Deal: Dallas Clark

OK, this is cheating since Clark already signed a 6-year deal to remain with the Colts.

Least Likely to Sign a Long-term Deal:  L.J. Smith

The Eagles remain concerned about Smith’s health and likely won’t agree to a long-term extension without seeing improvement on the field. This is basically a one-year option to retain a talented, system TE in a very weak free agent market for tight ends.

How did we do in our predictions?

We previewed each division and our thoughts on potential tag candidates. Overall, I’d say we did quite well.

• We correctly predicted 9 of 10 ‘definites’; our only whiff was on Randy Moss
• We noted that Flozell Adams and Ken Hamlin were possibilities in Dallas [although we leaned toward Adams]
• We noted that Brown and Trufant were possibilities in Seattle [and leaned toward Trufant]
• We noted DT Corey Williams and WR Bernard Berrian as possible tags [one out of two]
• We suggested that Justin Smith shouldn’t be tagged

Now it’s onto free agency and the NFL draft!
Related Blogs:

• ‘Tis the Season for Tagging
• NFC East Potential Tag Candidates
• NFC North Potential Tag Candidates
• NFC South Potential Tag Candidates
• NFC West Potential Tag Candidates
• AFC East Potential Tag Candidates
• AFC North Potential Tag Candidates
• AFC South Potential Tag Candidates
• AFC West Potential Tag Candidates

We’ve been talking a lot about the franchise tag designation in recent days, and Raiders CB Nmandi Asomugha was among our list of potential candidates. While it wasn’t surprising to see him tagged, it’s notable that the Raiders went above and beyond the conventional franchise tag by designating Asomugha an EXCLUSIVE franchise player.

How does that differ from the conventional (or non-exclusive) franchise tag designation?

• The player is guaranteed the average of the top 5 players at his position for the CURRENT (upcoming) year [the non-exclusive uses average salaries of the prior year]
• The player is not allowed to negotiate with any other team [non-exclusive tags allow for a team to accept 2 first round picks if another team signs the player]

Denver Broncos

The Broncos don’t have any free agents that are obvious fits for either the franchise or transition tag designation.

Kansas City Chiefs

DE Jared Allen

The Chiefs are expected to tag Jared Allen with an eye toward signing him to a long-term deal before the July 15th deadline. Allen had 15.5 sacks this season and has averaged 11 sacks per season over his 4-year career. Pass rushers of Allen’s ability simply don’t get into the open market very often.

Oakland Raiders

CB Nmandi Asomugha

Rumors persist that Asomugha will be franchised if the team can’t come to terms on a long-term deal before the tagging deadline. The 5-year veteran is considered a cornerstone of the team’s young, energetic defense and; given the price of free agent corners, it might not be as shocking a decision to tag him as one might think. That said, Asomugha is coming off a disappointing season following his breakout 2006 campaign. The team wouldn’t be tagging Asomugha for the player he already is; but rather for the player they think he can become.

San Diego Chargers

The Chargers don’t have many key free agents, and aren’t likely to utilize their tag designations.

Arizona Cardinals

LB Karlos Dansby

The Cardinals have two free agent linebackers that are among the most compelling options in free agency: Karlos Dansby and Calvin Pace. While Pace is talented and someone the Cardinals would like to have back, it’s Dansby that’s almost assuredly going to be tagged because he’s emerging as one of the preeminent defensive playmakers in the NFC.

     
St. Louis Rams

The Rams have a handful of free agents but none that warrant either the franchise or transition tag designation.

San Francisco 49ers

GM Scott McCloughan has gone on record saying the team has no intentions of using the franchise tag on any of its key free agents. The team has a few key free agents it would do well to retain (e.g., Isaac Sopaoga and Larry Allen) but neither are worth the kind of money a franchise designation would incur.

Seattle Seahawks

Option 1: PK Josh Brown

The Seahawks don’t want to lose their star place kicker and, as a result, may tag him again. Recall that Browns was the team’s franchise player last season, but the team was unable to come to terms on a multi-year deal. Given the modest differential between the top paid kickers and the middle-of-the-road alternatives, the Seahawks would be foolish to let Brown enter free agency; either they will sign him long-term over the next week or he’ll get tagged because…

Option 2: CB Marcus Trufant

The ‘hawks don’t want to be in the position of having to let Marcus Trufant hit the open market. Trufant is one of the best young corners in the league and, were he to hit free agency, could potentially garner the kind of monster offer Nate Clements received from San Francisco last season. Our bet is that Seattle comes to terms with Brown on a deal in the next few days, allowing them to tag Trufant.

Dallas Cowboys

Option 1: OT Flozell Adams

Flozell Adams is an unrestricted free agent and could garner a tag if the team feels his services are indispensable. Adams is a 4-time Pro Bowler and played at an extremely high level in 2007. But at 32 years old (he’ll be 33 in May), he’s not someone that is really in line to get a long-term deal. If he’s unwilling to accept a 3-year deal; the team may have no choice but to tag him.

Option 2: S Ken Hamlin

Ken Hamlin is the best safety available in free agency and helped solidify a former weak spot this year. Franchising a safety is less of an economic burden than tackle; but it’s arguably easier to replace a safety via the draft than it is to find another offensive book end.

New York Giants

The Giants are unlikely to use the tag designations this offseason. Their only major free agents (Gibril Wilson, Reggie Torbor and Kawika Mitchell) are worthy of contract extensions but it would be difficult to justify paying any of them money that equates to the best at their respective positions.

Philadelphia Eagles

TE L.J. Smith

The Eagles have assigned the franchise tag designation to L.J. Smith; guaranteeing him $4.5mm this season (if he signs the tender). Although Smith was injured for much of the 2007 season, tagging him makes imminent sense given the lack of attractive alternatives in free agency. The Eagles get a chance to evaluate Smith before deciding whether to extend him long-term, and in turn Smith gets top 5 money despite a disappointing 2007 season. A win/win.

Washington Redskins

Much like the Giants, it’s unlikely the Redskins will use their tag designations this offseason. The Redskins have no marquee free agents that would justify the financial commitment, and happen to be the only team projected to be signficantly over the salary cap entering free agency.

We’ll continue our Fun With Defensive Statistics series with a look into just how scary defensive backs were in 2007. In the words of the great hunter Elmer Fudd, “Be vewy, vewy careful” before putting too much stock in the overall DB stats from 2007.

Top 5 2007 DBs (FBG scoring)

1. Leigh Bodden 184.50
2. Nate Clements 180.75
3. Marcus Trufant 179.75
4. Chris Harris 174.50
5. Roman Harper 172.50

• One player (Cedric Griffin) over 80 solo tackles with 82.
• Worst starter (#36) PPG (min 5 games) = 9.34

2006

• 8 defensive backs over 185 fpts
• 6 defensive backs over 80 solos (three with 89)
• 2007 #12 would have finished 21^st
• 2007 #36 would have finished 41^st

2005

• 5 defensive backs over 185 fpts (all 190+, three with 200+)
• 9 defensive backs over 80 solos (three over 90)
• 2007 #12 would have finished 19^th
• 2007 #36 would have finished 46^th

2004

• 5 defensive backs over 185 fpts (three with 200+)
• 4 defensive backs over 80 solos
• 2007 #12 would have finished 18^th
• 2007 #36 would have finished 49^th

2003

• 5 defensive backs over 185 fpts
• 5 defensive backs over 80 solos
• 2007 #12 would have finished T19th
• 2007 #36 would have finished 42^nd

Bottom line:

2007 was the least productive season in the last five years for defensive backs. This season’s #1 overall DB would have finished no better than 6^th in any of the previous five seasons. The overall tackle stats for defensive backs, the bread and butter of most IDP systems, were significantly down. The nominal worst DB1 starter in 2007 would barely have been a mid DB2 at any point over the past five seasons. And the “worst starter” in a start 3 DB league was easily the worst in five years.

Obviously, there are injury issues that skew this data some. But, while I expect to be in the minority come July, I think those that risk a pick on a potential “stud” safety next summer will find themselves rewarded handsomely. Considering that you’ll probably be able to get a player from that group at least one round later than in prior seasons, there’s even better value to be had.

Potential pitfalls:

The rise of the 3-4, Tampa-2 and hybrid nickel schemes could be depressing DB values, particularly the benchmark strong safeties. The influx of stud young linebacker talent may also be depressing safety values overall. Or it could simply be that 2005-2006 were DB years, not unlike the recent rise of the TE on the offensive side.

I think there are valid arguments against any of those potential issues, however, and, pending a glut of scheme/draft/free agency flies in the ointment, am planning on taking advantage of the negative DB bias created by the DB Massacre of 2007. The key, as always and with every position, will be to pick the right guys to rebound or break out.

Happy hunting.

Somber news this morning as Sean Taylor, the Washington Redskins talented safety, has passed away as a result of the gunshot wounds suffered at his home yesterday. Taylor was only 24 years old and his assailant remains at large.

Any loss of life is tragic and, while Taylor was an ultra-talented player, it seems somehow disrespectful to make today’s news about the death of a football player. This was about the death of a man, a friend, a father, a son; and unfortunately is just one of innumerable acts of senseless violence that punctuates our society.

Rest in Peace Sean Taylor; and our deepest thoughts and sympathies to his family and friends.

Here are the top 5 players on our Cheatsheets at each position, for Week One:

Quarterback (QB)

1. Peyton Manning - IND vs NO
2. Drew Brees - NO at IND
3. Tom Brady - NE at NYJ
4. Tony Romo - DAL vs NYG
5. Carson Palmer - CIN vs BAL

Running Back (RB)

1. LaDainian Tomlinson - SD vs CHI
2. Steven Jackson - STL vs CAR
3. Willie Parker - PIT at CLE
4. Joseph Addai - IND vs NO
5. Frank Gore - SF vs ARI

Wide Receiver (WR)

1. Terrell Owens - DAL vs NYG
2. Steve Smith - CAR at STL
3. Marvin Harrison - IND vs NO
4. Chad Johnson - CIN vs BAL
5. Reggie Wayne - IND vs NO

Tight End (TE)

1. Antonio Gates - SD vs CHI
2. Jeremy Shockey - NYG at DAL
3. Todd Heap - BAL at CIN
4. Chris Cooley - WAS vs MIA
5. Kellen Winslow Jr - CLE vs PIT

Defense/Special Teams (DST)

1. Chicago Bears - CHI at SD
2. Baltimore Ravens - BAL at CIN
3. Miami Dolphins - MIA at WAS
4. San Diego Chargers - SD vs CHI
5. New England Patriots - NE at NYJ

Kicker (PK)

1. Adam Vinatieri - IND vs NO
2. Olindo Mare - NO at IND
3. Josh Brown - SEA vs TB
4. Josh Scobee - JAX vs TEN
5. David Akers - PHI at GB

Defensive Line (DL)

1. Jason Taylor - MIA at WAS
2. Aaron Kampman - GB vs PHI
3. Derrick Burgess - OAK vs DET
4. Aaron Schobel - BUF vs DEN
5. Terrell Suggs - BAL at CIN

Linebacker (LB)

1. Keith Bulluck - TEN at JAX
2. London Fletcher - WAS vs MIA
3. Antonio Pierce - NYG at DAL
4. DeMeco Ryans - HOU vs KC
5. Ray Lewis - BAL at CIN

Defensive Back (DB)

1. Adrian Wilson - ARI at SF
2. Chris Hope - TEN at JAX
3. Sean Jones - CLE vs PIT
4. Roy Williams - DAL vs NYG
5. Troy Polamalu - PIT at CLE

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Asante Samuel gave in, as most franchise tagged players do. Despite holding out for most of the preseason and threatening an extended regular season absence, Samuel found it awfully hard to walk away from his teammates now that the games actually matter. And I’m sure the idea of $7.8mm in guaranteed money didn’t hurt either.

While I’m sure this has some significance to IDP leagues, it also has importance for traditional fantasy leagues, as well. The Patriots are being drafted, on average, 4th among Team Defenses and that’s despite Samuel’s absence. With Samuel, I can see the Patriots living up to that lofty draft ranking. Without him, I can’t see how they would’ve had a reliable enough pass defense to provide top-5 fantasy numbers.

Footballguys.com hard-hitting IDP coverage returns to The Audible this week with a in-depth look at every major breaking news story and heated positional battle on the defensive side of the ball. Host Sigmund Bloom, Eyes of the Guru author John Norton and Jene Bramel provide the analysis in a roundtable discussion on the only IDP podcast available on the internet.In the first of back-to-back episodes, the IDP crew discuss:

• The impact of Jeremiah Trotter’s release
• How the loss of Chike Okeafor will affect Arizona’s plans
• The emergence of Patrick Willis and Paul Posluszny
• Gibril Wilson’s move to FS
• Why Ahmad Brooks and Adalius Thomas require a second look
• What the Broncos might do without Ebenezer Ekuban
• Donovin Darius and the Oakland safety situation
• Whether Deon Grant might become the Chris Hope of 2007

If that’s not enough IDP goodness for you, be sure to check out the soon-to-be-released second episode, which will feature more discussion on the prospects of D.J. Williams, Matt Wilhelm and Stephen Cooper, Jon Beason, the probable decline of Andra Davis, which young DE have the best chance of making an impact in 2007 and much, much, much more.

Keep an eye on The Audible podcast page for the latest IDP Roundtable episodes, which will be released weekly as free content for the rest of the regular season. And if you’re thinking about taking the plunge and joining an IDP or a grizzled IDP vet of many years, make sure you’ve listened to our five part Ultimate Guide to IDP Leagues podcast extravaganza (Vol 89a-e) available on our podcast page.

While it can be dangerous to read too much into the first “official” depth charts and the fluff pieces beat writers produce early in the preseason, there are always important nuggets to be gleaned from watching preseason games and carefully considering the comments of coaches and coordinators. Here’s a look at some of the changes in the IDP landscape thus far.Winners

• ILB Adalius Thomas — As was reported during OTAs, Thomas lined up all over the field last week but primarily at LILB. That’s often been the better tackling position in the Belichick scheme in recent years. Thomas looked a little uncomfortable inside at times but the combination of increased run support opportunity and pass rush skill may prove a lethal combination in the boxscore.
• DE Robert Geathers — After the team hinted that he would remain in a situational pass rushing role, Geathers played every down with the first team defense. Geathers has flashed decent run supporting skill in prior seasons and has 45 solo, 10 sack potential in the full time role.
• SS Deon Grant — Some felt Grant was in for a big bump in stats after leaving the limiting Jacksonville scheme for the greener Seahawk defense but the news that Grant would take on a more traditional strong safety role should make him an even safer bet for 2007.
• SS Chris Harris — Harris became a must roster after the Panthers acquired him from the Bears as camp began. Harris may not be a special NFL talent, but his IDP value goes from non-existent as a backup with Chicago to the starting SS in Carolina.
• WLB Landon Johnson — Another Bengal who looks to have a bigger role than initially expected, Johnson started with the first team last week. An underrated all-around backer, Johnson played well enough the first week to keep Ed Hartwell a backup MLB/WLB.
• OLB Antwan Peek — Peek isn’t a stud NFL talent, but Willie McGinest’s back surgery and Kamerion Wimbley’s beastly performance in the first preseason game could push Peek into every week starter status in big play leagues this year.

Losers

• OLB Chike Okeafor — Okeafor is likely out for the season after suffering a torn bicep muscle last week. Owners looking to use Okeafor as a DL and get OLB stat lines are going to have to find another option to exploit the “Bryan Thomas” classification loophole.
• MLB Ahmad Brooks — Caleb Miller replaced Brooks in nickel situations in the first preseason game despite earlier indications that Brooks would be an every down linebacker. There’s still time for Brooks to prove himself in coverage and the team has praised his effort in practice, but this isn’t a good start to 2007.
• FS Will Demps — The Giants began camp with Gibril Wilson at FS, James Butler at SS and Demps, who was one of the better producing free safeties in IDP leagues last year, on the second team. Demps is apparently rotating in with the first team again this week but the writing may be on the wall for him.
• MLB Brian Simmons — A nagging chronic knee problem and the surprisingly consistent play of last year’s starter Mark Simoneau has Simmons stuck on the second team. If Simmons can’t get on the field and impress soon, he’ll have a hard time securing any IDP value in 2007 without an injury to another starter.
• WLB Keith Ellison — While it may not be set in stone yet, Ellison sat in nickel situations during the first preseason game. Though it appears Ellison will shift with the offensive formation to remain a WLB on all base defensive snaps, sitting in the nickel will keep him from becoming more than a LB3.
• OLB Bryan Thomas — The NFL.com gamebook and Jets official depth chart has finally be updated to reflect Thomas’ correct position as an OLB. Those holding out hope that Thomas will remain a DL in your IDP league have hopefully already made other arrangements.

Other ongoing storylines:

Patrick Willis is still behind Derek Smith at RILB in the 49er base defense. Roman Harper looks fully recovered and may play linebacker in the nickel defense for New Orleans. Demorrio Williams has been cleared for contact nearly a month before he was expected to return and is running with the first team in Atlanta. Gibril Wilson has been tabbed for the big play FS role that Brian Dawkins played in Philadelphia. Eagle LB Takeo Spikes is turning heads in camp and may have recovered his sideline-to-sideline range.

Keep an eye on our free IDP centered message board at FootballGuys for breaking news and quick analysis on the defensive side of the ball. And watch for our new weekly IDP podcast on The Audible which will debut next week.