More of the Same: NFL’s Worst Rush Defenses Keep on Giving
In this Internet era of the NFL, with free agency going on throughout the off-season and, additionally, draft coverage galore, football fans are inundated with coverage about their favorite team’s moves. High draft picks are scrutinized and their tape is dissected via Tivo replays and YouTube clips, free agents’ prospects endlessly debated - and, often, expectations reach a fevered pitch entering week 1 of the regular season.
And then, reality crashes the speculation party - top offensive coordinators throw a full-blown smorgasbord of plays at the opposition’s defense (after a month of vanilla preseason fare), and exploit their weaknesses mercilessly. Despite many teams’ best efforts to shore up their flaws, improvement is hard to come by at the NFL level, folks. Let’s take a look at week 1 results among the league’s worst rush defenses from 2007, and see what early indications we can find about their direction in 2008.
The bottom 20% of the NFL in terms of rush defense last year were as follows:
#27: The Cleveland Browns, who averaged 129.5 rushing yards allowed per game during 2007, with 8 rushing TDs given up last season (6th-best in the NFL). During week 1 of 2008, the Browns allowed:
- 31/167/3 rushing to Dallas, a 5.4 yards allowed per carry average
- The Browns actually regressed in both categories (yards allowed and TDs given up) and look worse this year than they did last year
#28: The Kansas City Chiefs, who averaged 130.8 rushing yards allowed per game during 2007, with 11 TDs given up (tied for 12th in the NFL). During week 1 of 2008, the Chiefs handed over:
- 28/126/1 to New England, a 4.5 yards allowed per carry average
- The Chiefs carried on with their turnstile ways despite the loss of Tom Brady from New England’s attack (the Patriots had much less threat to pass after Brady left, but yet the Chiefs couldn’t clamp down on New England’s stable of backs)
#29: The New York Jets, who averaged 134.8 rushing yards allowed per game during 2007, with 14 rushing TDs handed over (tied for 23rd in the NFL). During week 1 of 2008, the Jets gave up:
- 17/49/0 to Miami, a 2.9 yards allowed per carry average
- The Jets showed significant improvement in week 1* (see below, though)
#30: The Denver Broncos, who averaged 142.6 rushing yards allowed per game during 2007, with 14 rushing TDs given up (tied for 23rd with the Jets). During week 1 of 2008 the Broncos coughed up:
- 31/150/0 rushing to the Raiders, despite a limited passing attack in the hands of green-as-grass JaMarcus Russell (a 4.8 yards allowed per carry average)
- Denver did manage to avoid allowing a rushing TD, but they clearly haven’t improved much over last season despite the lack of an allowed rushing score week 1
#31: The Oakland Raiders, who averaged 145.9 rushing yards allowed per game during 2007, with 24 rushing TDs bled out of the defense (32nd in the NFL). During week 1 of the 2008 season, Denver gashed Oakland for:
- 34/142/3 rushing, an average of 4.2 yards allowed per carry
- Oakland could hand over even more than rushing TDs in 2008 at this pace - they have taken a step back in goal-line defense (which didn’t look likely prior to the MNF game last night). Oakland remains, arguably, the easiest NFL team to rush the ball against, although Cleveland was even worse in week 1 (but they faced a much more powerful Dallas offense).
#32: The Miami Dolphins, who averaged 153.5 rushing yards allowed per game during 2007, with 18 rushing TDs handed over (30th in the NFL). During week 1 of 2008 the Dolphins handed over:
- 31/112/1 to New York, a 3.6 yards allowed per carry average
- Miami showed some improvement over last season, but are still far from a shut-down, wet-blanket type defense
So what can we learn from the above and apply to our fantasy teams? First of all, improvement on the defensive side of the ball isn’t usually a matter of a quantum leap forward from one year to the next. Yes, free agency and the draft can help (as can the return of key personnel from a prior year’s injured reserve list), but incrimental improvement is much more likely to occur than a huge jump forward. For the league’s worst defensive units (like those mentioned above), there are usually more than 1 or 2 holes to be closed, making just one year’s worth of roster moves unlikely to suddenly “fix” a big problem. A vulnerability from last season is very likely to linger into the following year.
Knowing the above, it makes a lot of sense to start your fantasy backs when they line up across from the “worst of the bad” from 2007 - Cleveland, Kansas City, Denver, Oakland or Miami - the jury is still out on the Jets’ status entering week 2. *The Jets did shut down Miami’s backs in week 1, but Miami is in extensive rebuilding mode, with an entirely new coaching staff and front office, and a significantly made-over offense (with a brand-new free agent QB in Chad Pennington) - we’ll see how “for real” the Jets are after their clash with the Patriots’ well-stocked stable of backs, in the Meadowlands on Sunday. In particular, we can see part of the reason why LaDainian Tomlinson is such a great fantasy back when we note that all of his AFC West opponents are among the worst rush defenses in the NFL (although they may be at the bottom of the statistical pile in part due to facing Tomlinson twice a year each year - which came first, the chicken or the egg?).
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