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December 13, 2007

Houston Texans: Still think they made a mistake taking Mario Williams?

Filed under: Position - Def, NFL, AFC South, Footballguys, DE, Texans — Jason Wood @ 11:24 pm

Mario Williams just wrapped up a 3.5 sack game tonight against the Broncos, giving him 13 on the season (2nd in the NFL). He’s been a dominant pass rusher and, unlike many of today’s pass rushers, has the size to consistently stop the run. It seems that the Texans got absolutely filleted when they chose Williams over Reggie Bush and Vince Young last April. Yet, I wonder if as many people would say it was a mistake in retrospect.

Reggie Bush has struggled mightily and is now injured; while the Texans could use a feature back history tells us it’s far easier to find a productive runner than a dominant pass rusher. And while Vince Young still has many believers, he’s struggled at times this year while the Texans appear to have not one, but TWO above average passers on the roster. Sage Rosenfels has played extremely well, and while Matt Schaub has battled injuries, it would be hard to argue the combination of those two isn’t a decent option.

November 20, 2007

The Seahawks Pass Defense Gets No Respect

Filed under: Strategy, Position - Def, NFL, Projections, NFC West, Fantasy, Stats, Footballguys, Seahawks — Jeff Tefertiller @ 8:09 pm

While looking at some stats on Footballguys.com, there is a feature that has the matchup data for the last four weeks. This is a great tool for gauging which offenses or defenses are getting hot at the right time. One thing I noticed was that the Seahawks are the Rodney Dangerfield of the NFL pass defenses.

For the last three games (four weeks), the Seattle Seahawks pass defense has yielded the following stats per game:

  • 22 of 38 for 248 yards and NO touchdown passes, along with .3 interceptions a game. For this span, the defense also is averaging a fumble recovery and 2.7 sacks per game.

On the season, the Seahawks defense is only giving up an average of a scoring reception once every two games. That is impressive. The remaining schedule includes great fantasy opportunities against the Rams, Panthers, Ravens, and Falcons. The last three listed are great matchups against average quarterbacks.

October 19, 2007

Chicago Bear Defense …. What Happened?

Filed under: Position - Def, NFL, NFC North, News, Injury, Bears — Jeff Tefertiller @ 8:49 pm

It was only last year that the Chicago Bears were known as the most dominant defense in the NFL. Now, the 2-4 Bears look to be in trouble. In the last four games, they have given up at least 34 points. The only game they held their opponent to less was a win against the Packers 27-20. To get a perspective of how bad the once-vaunted Bear defense really is, take a look at these rankings versus the rest of the NFL:

Pass Defense:

Passing Yards: 27th

Yards Per Pass Attempt: 29th

Rush Defense:

Rush Attempts: 25th

Rush Yards: 28th

Rushing yards Per Carry: 26th

Rushing TDs: 29 th

Total Yardage Yielded: 30th

How did the Bears go from a 13-3 record and a defense in the top 11 in the NFL for all of the categories listed above to a defense in disrepair? The main reason is the mounting injuries. Bear starting defenders have missed a lot of game time in 2007. This is not an exhaustive list, but should give an indication of the valuable players who have missed time for the Bears this season:

Tommie Harris (knee), Nathan Vasher (groin), Adam Archuleta (hand), Lance Brings (hamstring), Darwin Walker (knee), Charles Tillman (ankle), Seth Payne (arm), Daniel Bazuin (knee), Mike Brown (knee), Dusty Dvoracek (knee), and Michael Okwo (shoulder).

Many of these players were starters and leaders of the Bear defense. Add Tank Johnson’s legal problems, with his subsequent release to the list, and now the Bears give up huge yardage on the ground. This defense looks like one on the decline. Many of the players listed above are ones that either are at the end of their career due to age or are incurred injury again in 2007 and it looks like rehab will be difficult to come back strong.

October 18, 2007

The Unheralded Chiefs Defense

Filed under: Position - Def, NFL, IDP, AFC West, Footballguys, Division, Chiefs — Jeff Tefertiller @ 10:15 am

The Chief defense is still not recognized as a top defense. They started off the season slow, losing two games to the Texans and Bears, while giving up 20 points in each contest. But, in the last four games, the Kansas City defense has yielded only 63 points while going 3-1.

What changed? The return of Jared Allen from his suspension is the biggest difference. In the week six win against the Bengals, Allen was everywhere. He had 2.5 sacks and kept constant pressure on Carson Palmer. The Chiefs held the Bengals to 20 points, compared to the 26.5 points a game average Carson Palmer and company brought into the game. In week four, the Chiefs held the Chargers to 16 points. In the two games since, the Chargers have scored 69 points against two good defenses (Broncos and Raiders).


YouTube: D-Ends of the KC Chiefs 

The Chiefs get the Oakland Raiders this Sunday. Expect Jared Allen and company to have a field day with Daunte Culpepper and company. For fantasy leagues, the Kansas City Chiefs defense should be a very good start. The following week, the Chiefs are on bye.

September 7, 2007

Cheatsheets Top 5: Week One

Filed under: Fantasy, DB, Footballguys, Projections, NFL, Position - Def, LB, DT, WR, RB, TE, PK, DE, QB — Jason Wood @ 10:42 pm

Here are the top 5 players on our Cheatsheets at each position, for Week One:

Quarterback (QB)

  1. Peyton Manning - IND vs NO
  2. Drew Brees - NO at IND
  3. Tom Brady - NE at NYJ
  4. Tony Romo - DAL vs NYG
  5. Carson Palmer - CIN vs BAL

Running Back (RB)

  1. LaDainian Tomlinson - SD vs CHI
  2. Steven Jackson - STL vs CAR
  3. Willie Parker - PIT at CLE
  4. Joseph Addai - IND vs NO
  5. Frank Gore - SF vs ARI

Wide Receiver (WR)

  1. Terrell Owens - DAL vs NYG
  2. Steve Smith - CAR at STL
  3. Marvin Harrison - IND vs NO
  4. Chad Johnson - CIN vs BAL
  5. Reggie Wayne - IND vs NO

Tight End (TE)

  1. Antonio Gates - SD vs CHI
  2. Jeremy Shockey - NYG at DAL
  3. Todd Heap - BAL at CIN
  4. Chris Cooley - WAS vs MIA
  5. Kellen Winslow Jr - CLE vs PIT

Defense/Special Teams (DST)

  1. Chicago Bears - CHI at SD
  2. Baltimore Ravens - BAL at CIN
  3. Miami Dolphins - MIA at WAS
  4. San Diego Chargers - SD vs CHI
  5. New England Patriots - NE at NYJ

Kicker (PK)

  1. Adam Vinatieri - IND vs NO
  2. Olindo Mare - NO at IND
  3. Josh Brown - SEA vs TB
  4. Josh Scobee - JAX vs TEN
  5. David Akers - PHI at GB

Defensive Line (DL)

  1. Jason Taylor - MIA at WAS
  2. Aaron Kampman - GB vs PHI
  3. Derrick Burgess - OAK vs DET
  4. Aaron Schobel - BUF vs DEN
  5. Terrell Suggs - BAL at CIN

Linebacker (LB)

  1. Keith Bulluck - TEN at JAX
  2. London Fletcher - WAS vs MIA
  3. Antonio Pierce - NYG at DAL
  4. DeMeco Ryans - HOU vs KC
  5. Ray Lewis - BAL at CIN

Defensive Back (DB)

  1. Adrian Wilson - ARI at SF
  2. Chris Hope - TEN at JAX
  3. Sean Jones - CLE vs PIT
  4. Roy Williams - DAL vs NYG
  5. Troy Polamalu - PIT at CLE

Our complete cheatsheets are available for subscribers HERE. We also provide customized cheatsheets (tailored to your scoring system) as well as customized player projections. If you haven’t decided whether or not to subscribe to Footballguys yet; here a few reasons why we think it’s money well spent.

August 31, 2007

IDP: Will 2007 be a breakout year for defensive ends?

Every year, there are a number of second- and third-year defensive ends that break out as they grow into their position physically and mentally. Last year, saw Robert Geathers, Bobby McCray and Aaron Kampman explode onto the NFL scene with double digit sacks. Veteran IDPers know how important it is to find undervalued defensive players late in drafts and on the waiver wire and there looks to be a deeper list of candidates along the defensive line this season than any in recent memory. Don’t forget about Geathers and McCray, who will both have expanded roles this year, but keep a watchful eye on the following candidates to grab late in your draft or as early season free agents.

Stanley McClover (CAR) — McClover declared for the 2006 draft as a college junior and fell to the seventh round due to concerns about his physical maturity. McClover spent most of 2006 on the inactive lists, learning from Julius Peppers and Mike Rucker. After adding 15 pounds to his already considerable edge rushing skills, McClover’s solid offseason may have earned him the majority of snaps in the base defense this year. He may still rotate with Mike Rucker and Charles Johnson, but has big potential if he can get 40 or more snaps a game.

Ray Edwards (MIN) — The Vikings have been waiting for someone to stay healthy and productive long enough to generate a consistent pass rush. Kenechi Udeze hasn’t been able to do it, neither has Erasmus James. Edwards flashed at times last year and has been given the RDE job. His primary responsibility will be rushing the quarterback in Leslie Frazier’s aggressive scheme.

Elvis Dumervil (DEN) — I suggested avoiding Dumervil in IDP leagues in one of my weekly Reading the Defense subscriber columns last season, dismissing him as a situational pass rusher. Two things have changed since then. First, Dumervil gets the benefit of lining up a little wider in Jim Bates’ defensive scheme, which will give him a better angle to get to the quarterback and allow him to maximize his speed rush while minimizing his size disadvantage. Second, the loss of Ebenezer Ekuban will significantly increase Dumervil’s snaps. Dumervil showed his explosiveness in 2006 and may better those numbers in 2007. A must roster in big play leagues.

Darryl Tapp (SEA) — With the mediocre Grant Wistrom and Bryce Fisher finally on the outs, Tapp gets his opportunity in 2007. Another undersized pass rusher who took some extra time to mature, Tapp will start opposite free agent acquisition Patrick Kerney. If he can hold up as an every down player, Tapp also has big pass rush potential.

Justin Tuck (NYG) — Tuck’s value is dependent on Michael Strahan staying home. After getting lost in the depth the Giants had at end over the past two seasons, Tuck is in line for a starting job if Strahan elects not to play with Mathias Kiwanuka moved to SLB. Tuck is a very solid all-around defensive end and opposing offensive coordinators will be focusing on Osi Umenyiora. Tuck is very likely to go undrafted, but needs to be watched very closely if Strahan sits.

Mario Williams (HOU) — Williams is probably still valued by most casual IDP owners on name recognition. He should be firmly on your radar should he slip. Williams wasn’t nearly as bad as the media made him out to be last year when comparing him to Reggie Bush. Struggling through a toe problem, Williams held his own. With his explosiveness likely back in 2007, we may finally see the all-around talent that made him the first overall pick last year.

Jamaal Anderson (ATL) — Anderson is the only 2007 rookie on this list. Rookie defensive ends rarely have an every-down impact but those that do (Hali, Peppers, etc) often fit Anderson’s profile. Impact rookie defensive ends are usually mostly polished players. They have a solid frame to stand up at the point of attack. They have some understanding of how to use their hands and lower body in leverage. They have more than one pass rush move. You’ll find a one-trick pass rusher (Dwight Freeney) or situational stud (Mark Anderson) now and then, but the rookie DEs to target in IDP redrafts are those with the best all-around skill sets.

August 29, 2007

5-Minute Drill: QB and TE Draft Tips

Filed under: Podcasts, Position - Def, Footballguys, Fantasy, TE, PK, QB — Jason Wood @ 9:11 pm

 5mindrill_draftwide_178×100.jpg

Whether you just love looking at enthusiastic hosts with high top fades or producers breaking the 4th wall or want 5-minutes of hard hitting fantasy insight, the Five Minute Drill has got what you need. Footballguys’ own Cecil “Kid” Lammey and Sigmund “Play” Bloom (with a special guest appearance by producer Marc Faletti) are back with their third episode of the must see fantasy vidcast. This week they look at drafting QBs and TEs, and finish off with a pair of great PKs and Defenses that deserve your attention.

LISTEN NOW!

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August 27, 2007

Asante Samuel: Back with the Patriots and it feels so good!

Filed under: IDP, Position - Def, NFL, AFC East, Footballguys, DB, Fantasy, News, Patriots — Jason Wood @ 4:36 pm

Asante Samuel gave in, as most franchise tagged players do. Despite holding out for most of the preseason and threatening an extended regular season absence, Samuel found it awfully hard to walk away from his teammates now that the games actually matter. And I’m sure the idea of $7.8mm in guaranteed money didn’t hurt either. :)

While I’m sure this has some significance to IDP leagues, it also has importance for traditional fantasy leagues, as well. The Patriots are being drafted, on average, 4th among Team Defenses and that’s despite Samuel’s absence. With Samuel, I can see the Patriots living up to that lofty draft ranking. Without him, I can’t see how they would’ve had a reliable enough pass defense to provide top-5 fantasy numbers.

July 13, 2007

A few stats and tidbits from the 2006 season

Filed under: Footballguys, Projections, Position - Def, Stats, Fantasy, RB, WR, QB — Jeff Haseley @ 7:22 pm

Editor’s Note: Jeff Haseley, one of our newest staff members, has been known for years on our Forums as one of the most tenacious providers of interesting NFL statistical tidbits. Join Jeff in his first foray into blogging for us, and expect plenty more of these types of NFLivia in the coming months…

1. Did you know? Of all WRs with 100 targets last season, the following players had the most fantasy points per game

Non Points per Reception (PPR)

  • 12.3 Terrell Owens
  • 12.0 Darrell Jackson
  • 11.8 Steve Smith
  • 11.6 Reggie Wayne
  • 11.6 TJ Houshmandzadeh

Points per Reception (PPR)

  • 19.0 Marvin Harrison
  • 18.6 Steve Smith
  • 18.1 TJ Houshmandzadeh
  • 17.6 Terrell Owens
  • 17.0 Torry Holt

2. The 2006 RB leaders in fantasy points per game (PPR) - looks like a lot of people’s Top-10 list (not including Kevin Jones and Tiki Barber, of course)

  • 29.6 LaDainian Tomlinson
  • 26.2 Steven Jackson
  • 23.4 Larry Johnson
  • 22.3 Brian Westbrook
  • 20.8 Frank Gore
  • 19.2 Kevin Jones
  • 18.8 Tiki Barber
  • 18.7 Willie Parker
  • 17.1 Maurice Jones-Drew
  • 16.7 Reggie Bush

3. The 2006 QB leaders in fantasy points per game (PaTD = 6pts, Rush yards 1pt per 10yd)

  • 25.3 Donovan McNabb
  • 24.3 Peyton Manning
  • 21.0 Drew Brees
  • 20.9 Michael Vick (this surprised me)
  • 20.8 Carson Palmer
  • 20.1 Jon Kitna
  • 20.0 Marc Bulger
  • 19.2 Jay Cutler
  • 18.5 Tom Brady
  • 18.1 Ben Roethlisberger
  • 18.1 Matt Hasselbeck

4. What do these teams have in common?

  • Baltimore
  • Chicago
  • Green Bay (5 def TDs and 46 sacks explains this)
  • Minnesota
  • San Diego
  • Tennessee (5 Def TDs and 3 KR TDs explains this)
  • Arizona (33 FR+INT, 4 total ST/Def TDs explains this, but wow)
  • Philadelphia
  • Dallas
  • Miami

These teams are the top 10 teams (in order) in fantasy points per game for Defense/special teams

Scoring Format:

Sack: 1.00 point each
FR: 2.00 points each
INT: 2.00 points each
DefTD: 6.00 points each
Safety: 2.00 points each
KickTD: 6.00 points each

5. Only one wide receiver (Jerricho Cotchery — 960 yds) had 80+ receptions without reaching 1,000 yards in 2006. Cotchery was also 13th in receptions (82) for WRs, but 21st in fantasy points per game (PPR) with 13.5

Other WRs with similar receptions and their fantasy points per game (FFPG)

  • Roy Wlliams 82 rec, 16.0 FPPG
  • Lee Evans 82 rec, 16.2 FPPG
  • Steve Smith 83 rec, 18.6 FPPG
  • Anquan Boldin 83 rec, 14.4 FPPG

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