Now that the NFL Draft is in the books, we are standing on the cusp of the NFL preseason. During the coming weeks, rookie mini-camps will grind into gear and hard-core fantasy owners will start the process of evaluating this year’s draft picks potential for “instant impact” during 2008. In redraft fantasy football leagues, one key requirement for the kind of production that fantasy owners crave is opportunity. A player like TE Martellus Bennett (a 2nd-round selection by Dallas) may have all the talent in the world, but his chances for a meaningful 2008 season in fantasy terms are very slight due to being buried on the depth chart behind All-Pro TE Jason Witten.

The below is a preliminary list of the top rookie prospects for redraft fantasy leagues, given their new NFL homes.

Rookie Running Backs

The running back position is where the fantasy gems among the rookies are most likely to be found. While it is true that for every Adrian Peterson (Minnesota) or Joseph Addai one can point at, there are also players like J.J. Arrington or Chris Perry who serve as a counter-examples, it is also true that running backs tend to make the quickest transition to playing at the NFL level. A fantasy owner is most likely to find an “instant impact” player among the rookie running backs in any given calendar year.

Jonathan Stewart is probably the best bet at running back to generate fantasy impact during his rookie season. He is the sort of running back that the Panthers’ coaching staff prefers, and they have been retooling their offensive line for a power running attack - Stewart fits the mold that Carolina is built to utilize. DeAngelo Williams simply isn’t the player the coaching staff wants to rely on as their #1 RB - he is better suited to a change-of-pace, 3rd-down role in their scheme. Stewart figures to have plenty of touches on the ball with the Panthers this year.

Darren McFadden is a boom-or-bust type prospect. Yes, he has the type of speed and top gear that make him a threat to go to the house on every down, and he projects to be the starter with the Raiders (assuming his contract negotiations go well and he avoids a JaMarcus Russell-type holdout scenario). However, there is a crowded RB stable in Oakland, with Justin Fargas coming off a 1000+ yard season - if McFadden struggles with the pro game, he may not get many chances to redeem himself.

Kevin Smith lands with the Lions, who really like his game and seem to be indicating that the starting job is his to lose during 2008. We’ll see if their actions match their draft-day rhetoric - but Tatum Bell hasn’t looked like the answer since he arrived in Detroit, and as of today, he is the only other back of note on the team. If Smith impresses in training camp it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him starting for the Lions in September.

Matt Forte comes into a by-committee backfield situation, with both Cedric Benson and Adrian Peterson grinding out 3.4 yards per carry last season. Peterson was far more productive than Benson in the passing game (51/420/0 receiving vs. 17/123/0) and actually led the team in total yardage and fantasy points at the RB position last year. Benson has greatly underperformed his draft slot (1st round -4th pick in 2005) and may find himself riding the pine if Forte proves that he outperform Benson during training camp.

Rashard Mendenhall is likely to be Willie Parker’s primary backup for this year, but given Parker’s difficulty at the goal-line last year (321/1316/2 rushing), Mendenhall could find a role as the Steelers’ goal-line back (Najeh Davenport gained 107/499/5 rushing and 18/184/2 as the Steelers’ big back/change of pace back last year). If Mendenhall seals the #2 job with Pittsburgh, he could have value in basic scoring leagues (any league where TD production is the primary scoring criteria).

Felix Jones joins fellow rookie Tashard Choice as the new backups to Marion Barber III. Barber looks set to carry the majority of the load for Dallas, but Jones’ outside speed will give him a shot to earn playing time as the 3rd down back/passing down back - depending on how quickly Jones picks up the Cowboys’ offense and learns to pick up the blitz.

Rookie Wide Receivers

Second to the running backs, rookie WRs occasionally step into the NFL and make fantasy owners’ seasons. The most obvious example of this phenomenon would be Randy Moss’s first incredible season (69/1313/17) with Minnesota (he was the #1 fantasy WR as a rookie) - Larry Fitzgerald’s 58/780/8 as a rookie was also pretty outstanding for a rookie WR (30th best fantasy WR during 2004). However, it is far more often the case that rookie WRs bust (especially in their first season of NFL action). The last time I fell hard for a rookie WR’s potential, I ended up having Rashaun Woods among my preseason top 36 fantasy prospects - only to watch him fail miserably at the NFL level. Now-a-days, it is my rule of thumb that exactly zero rookie WRs land among my top 40 or so fantasy prospects until they have proven their skills extensively in training camp and preseason games - and even then I tend to be conservative about drafting them early - I would urge fantasy owners to be very leery of rookie wideouts.

James Hardy appears to have landed in the best situation among the draftees, with a legitimate shot at capturing the #2 wide receiver position on the Buffalo Bills. Other than Lee Evans, the Bills’ WRs generated 1 receiving TD last year (Josh Reed was #2 in yardage with 51/578/0) - not exactly what the coaching staff was looking for, to say the least. However, don’t go overboard with your enthusiasm for Hardy - the Bills were 30th in the NFL when it came to passing offense, so his ceiling as the #2 WR (if he gets that far) is relatively low compared to a player on a franchise like New England.

DeSean Jackson figures to be in the mix in Philadelphia, but the team spreads the ball around quite a bit - the 2nd best receiver on the Eagles over the past two years failed to get over 800 yards receiving or score more than 5 times, and the players at WR3 and below are non-factors in fantasy terms.

Devin Thomas may challenge for playing time in Washington, but with a developing young QB in Jason Campbell and an entrenched #1 WR in Santana Moss combined with a high-scoring TE hogging red-zone chances (Chris Cooley has 6 or more TDs in each of his first 4 seasons) - Thomas will have significant obstacles to overcome before he starts putting up the kind of statistics that make fantasy owners excited.

Malcolm Kelly - see Devin Thomas above.

Jerome Simpson landed with Cincinnati while the Bengals are searching for a replacement WR3 - if he can wow the coaching staff in training camp and sew up the WR3 spot, he could put up decent numbers now and then during 2008.

Rookie Quarterbacks

Excepting Peyton Manning , the exception who proves the rule, no rookie QB has been a fantasy standout during recent memory - even Dan Marino took one season to get up to speed before exploding during his second campaign way back in 1984. Unless you are convinced that Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco or any of the other draftees this year are of the caliber of a Peyton Manning or a Dan Marino, you should probably pass on them during your redraft league’s annual draft.

Matt Ryan will likely get his chance to start during 2008, perhaps early on in the season if Chris Redman falters during training camp. Ryan is sure to suffer typical rookie growing pains once he does get into the lineup, so he probably won’t have any games worth mentioning until very late in the season, if then.

Joe Flacco may be the heir apparent in Baltimore, but he’s currently buried behind Kyle Boller and Troy Smith (last year’s draft pick at the position). The Ravens got burned the last time they rushed a QB into the starting lineup (witness Boller’s checkered career with Baltimore) - they aren’t likely to make the same mistake with Flacco. He’ll likely carry the clipboard after preseason, with occasional spot duty in blow out wins or losses.

Rookie Tight Ends

Rookie tight ends are very seldom worth drafting - Tony Gonzalez scored 2 TDs in his rookie campaign (33/368/2), as did Antonio Gates (24/389/2), as did the ultra-hyped rookie TE of 2007, Greg Olsen (39/391/2). The three above examples are actually best-case scenarios for the vast majority of rookie TEs - the position is very demanding at the pro level and it simply takes more than 1 training camp and regular season to absorb all the duties that are asked of a pro TE. Among the 2008 draftees, expect 300+ and 1-2 TDs to be a ceiling when you are crafting your projections.

New Seahawk John Carlson will battle Jeb Putzier for playing time during 2008, and could end up starting for Seattle sooner rather than later. He is the TE prospect who landed in the best situation (such as it is) from the fantasy perspective.

Dustin Keller arrives to the Jets via a first round pick, but he’ll have to earn his way into the starting lineup - solid-but-unspectacular Chris Baker has scored 4 TDs in 2 of the past 4 seasons, and posted 41/409/3 last year. Keller will have the opportunity to learn the position from Baker and another veteran TE, Bubba Franks, this season. Keller is a guy to watch as the year progresses - he might be worth a flyer in free agency late in the season (just before fantasy playoffs) if he manages to earn playing time during 2008.

The NFL Draft is an exciting time of year for football junkies, but it is just the beginning of a long process. Don’t let your draft weekend enthusiasm drown out your better judgement as you prepare your preliminary draft lists for 2008. We have yet to get an inkling who among the draftees will fulfill their promise, which ones will outperform expectations - and how many will go bust in their first season as a pro football players.

The NFL draft is almost here and that means our little blogging vacation has come to a close. From this point forward, expect regular posts from here until next year’s free agency. My fingers are tired already!

Today’s new is the signing of OT Jake Long to a contract days before the official start of the NFL draft. Long signed a 5-year, $57mm deal with $30 million in guarantees. Long is a 6′7″, 313-pound tackle from the University if Michigan and was among a handful of top prospects throughout the pre-draft process. He’s considered a high character guy with sound fundamentals and, perhaps most importantly, a mean streak on the field.

The Dolphins have been in negotiations with Long’s camp for almost two weeks, yet today’s announcement still comes as a surprise to some. A few days ago, Dolphins GM Jeff Ireland appeared to have made a slip of the tongue when addressing the media:

“This guy is going to be — you hope that he’s a pillar of your defense for a long time.”

Combine that with Bill Parcells’ penchant for defensive difference makers, and it seemed improbable to some that an offensive tackle would be their choice. So why DID the Fins sign Jake Long instead of one of the much ballyhooed defenders like Vernon Gholston, Glen Dorsey or Chris Long? I think something Peter King (of SI.com) said made the most sense. In speaking to Colin Cowherd on ESPN Radio today, King mentioned that Parcells is wary of committing the kind of dollars that come with the first overall pick to a player that could end up being a bust. In Parcells’ view, according to King, Jake Long has the lowest chance of failure because of the hit rate offensive tackles have had as high draft picks. King pointed to Robert Gallery, who was a bust for Oakland at tackle but ended up having “an above average year” at guard in 2007. In other words, even if Jake Long doesn’t turn out to be a great offensive tackle, the team could still move him inside and potentially have a cornerstone guard for years to come. The same couldn’t be said for any of the other players considered worthy of the 1st overall pick.

The St. Louis Rams are on the clock…

It seems that the Baltimore Ravens have been in search of a quarterback since they infamous day they decided to leave Cleveland and become the Ravens. Even in their Super Bowl year, with a head coach best known for his offensive machinations, the Ravens trotted out a combination of Tony Banks and Trent Dilfer under center (and also had a span of scoreless games to rival even the most inept teams in league history).

Making the issue even more confounding is the reputation of GM Ozzie Newsome, considered by most to be among the best in the business.

It’s not as though Ozzie hasn’t tried:

• Vinny Testaverde (29 starts)
• Eric Zeier (7 starts)
• Jim Harbaugh (12 starts)
• Scott Mitchell (2 starts)
• Stoney Case (4 starts)
• Tony Banks (18 starts)
• Trent Dilfer (8 starts)
• Elvis Grbac (14 starts)
• Randall Cunningham (2 starts)
• Jeff Blake (10 starts)
• Chris Redman (6 starts)
• Anthony Wright (14 starts)
• Kyle Boller (42 starts)
• Steve McNair (22 starts)
• Troy Smith (2 starts)

What’s more surprising, the number of starters on this list or the fact Kyle Boller tops the list with 42 starts?

With a new coaching staff, and a proven offensive coordinator (Cam Cameron), it stands to reason that Baltimore’s quest for a reliable starter will continue over the next few months. So what are the teams options?

Option 1: Maintain the status quo 

All three QBs (Steve McNair, Kyle Boller & Troy Smith) are under contract; so it’s conceivable the team could stand pat. Unfortunately the trio combined for a meager 3,308 yards passing, 13 TDs and only 5.0 yards per attempt (all among the worst in the league).

• Steve McNair is 35 years old and coming off surgery on a torn rotator cuff in December, but neither he nor the team have ruled out anything for the 2007 season. Cam Cameron recently spoke to the press and left the door open for McNair to contribute. Realistically, the team would probably like to have McNair as a fall back option.
• Kyle Boller signed a one-year extension last season, and will make $3mm in 2008. It would seem illogical for the Ravens to part ways with Boller; regardless of whether they intend to give him a shot at winning the starting job or not.
• Troy Smith, a 5th rounder last year despite winning the Heisman Trophy, is entering his 2nd year of a 3-year contract. Smith got the final two starts of the 2007 season and did precious little to suggest he should be a serious candidate to start in 2008.

Option 2: Scour the free agent market

It’s every fans hope that his team will lure a big-name free agent that makes all the difference. But at the QB position, that’s a nigh impossible task. Teams simply don’t let great QBs hit free agency, at least proven ones. This year’s free agent class of QBs leaves much to be desired:

• Todd Collins
• Daunte Culpepper
• Trent Green [released by Miami this week]
• Rex Grossman
• Quinn Gray
• Tim Hasselbeck
• Cleo  Lemon
• Jared Lorenzen
• Jamie Martin
• Josh McCown
• Craig Nall
• J.T. O’Sullivan
• Tim Rattay
• Chris Redman
• Brian St. Pierre
• Marques Tuiasosopo
• Billy Volek
• Chris Weinke

Option 3: Acquire someone via trade

It always makes for good copy, but how often does a franchise QB get traded? Just a few weeks ago, rumors circulated that the Philadelphia Eagles and Baltimore Ravens were discussing a trade for Donovan McNabb. As with most rumors, this one appears to have no truth to it, as both teams vehemently denied even broaching the subject. Trades are possible (remember the Matt Schaub deal last offseason), but off the top of my head there really aren’t any obvious situations analogous to Schaub’s a season ago.

Option 4: Draft someone

The Ravens own the 8th pick in the draft and could be in position to draft a QB if they so choose. Matt Ryan (B.C.) and Brian Brohm (Louisville) are the consensus top options; and it’s possible one of them could be available at the 8 spot. If neither of those guys is available, or if the Ravens see value at another position with 1.08, the team could look toward someone along the lines of Chad Henne, Andre Woodson or Joe Flacco in the 2nd or 3rd round.

VERDICT: Draft someone and roll with either McNair or Boller in 2008. Given the alternatives,  it seems the Ravens are likely to go with either McNair (if his shoulder holds up) or Boller under center in September 2008; but don’t be surprised to see the Ravens use a fairly high pick on a QB that actually could lead the franchise. Troy Smith, for as great a story as he was, probably isn’t the answer long term.