Wow, sometimes I just don’t get it. The Minnesota Vikings acquire DE Jared Allen from the Kansas City Chiefs and sign him to a new contract, and I see hosts of people on radio, TV and internet message boards saying that the Vikings OVERPAID. While I can see, on the surface, why some people may have that initial reaction, I frankly think it’s conventional thinking and, with just a little analysis, people will come to realize that this move was nothing short of a NO-BRAINER for the Vikings.

First, let’s get the terms of the trade out of the way:

Vikings Get:

• DE Jared Allen
• 6th round pick (6.21 — 187th overall)

Chiefs Get:

• 1st round pick (1.17 — 17th overall)
• 3rd round pick (3.10 — 73rd overall)
• 3rd round pick (3.19 — 82nd overall)
• 6th round pick (6.16 — 182nd overall)

In conjunction with the trade, the Vikings gave Allen a new 6-year contract worth up to $74mm with incentives. The deal includes $31mm in guarantees; and puts Allen among the league’s highest paid defenders.

For those who might not realize, the 2007 Minnesota Vikings were the first team in NFL history to lead the league in both rushing offense and defense yet miss the playoffs. This team isn’t in rebuilding mode, it’s a team that could easily compete for a top seed in the NFC playoffs, particularly with the retirement of Brett Favre; the NFC North is wide open for the Vikes’ taking.

For the naysayers, let me offer you not one but two perspectives on why this deal made a ton of sense for Minnesota:

Approach #1: The Peer Group Comparison

Let’s say you turned on Sportscenter and read that the Vikings acquired Julius Peppers from the Panthers instead. Better yet, let’s say they acquired Dwight Freeney for the same draft compensation from Indianapolis. How many NFL pundits and fans would be singing the Vikings praises then? Yet, here’s the thing…Jared Allen is AS GOOD IF NOT BETTER than either Peppers or Freeney.

• Julius Peppers — 28 years old, 90 games played, 56 sacks, 31 passes defensed, 288 tackles
• Dwight Freeney — 28 years old, 88 games played, 60 sacks, 11 passes defensed, 190 tackles
• Jared Allen — 26 years old, 61 games played, 43 sacks, 25 passes defense, 227 tackles

Allen is:

• Two years younger
• Healthier
• Averaged more sacks per game (0.70 vs. 0.68 & 0.62)
• Averaged more passes defensed per game (0.41 vs. 0.13 & 0.34)
• Averaged more tackles per game (3.72 vs. 2.16 & 3.20)

Approach #2: The Draft Value Chart Comparison

By now everyone knows that most NFL teams utilize a derivative of the same draft trade chart that was first popularized by Jimmy Johnson back in his Cowboys coaching days. This is the tried and true chart teams use to evaluate trading up or down on draft day. The chart assigns a point value to each pick and declines with each successive pick.

According to the most common version of the trade chart, the value of the picks KC received was:

• 17th = 950 points
• 73rd = 225 points
• 82nd = 180 points
• 182nd = 18.6 points
• TOTAL = 1,373.6 points

In order for most GMs to make this trade, they have to feel they’re getting back equivalent or better value. The value of the 6th round pick the Vikes acquired = 16.6 points, which means:

• 187th = 16.6 points
• DIFFERENTIAL = 1,357 points

In order for the deal to make sense, Jared Allen should be “worth” at least 1,357 points on the draft chart. According to the draft chart:

• 9th overall = 1,350 points
• 8th overall = 1,400 points

Does ANYONE want to argue that Jared Allen isn’t worth the 8th or 9th overall pick in this year’s draft? You’re getting a 26 year old proven ELITE defensive end. Frankly, if we’re being intellectually honest, Jared Allen would be the 1st overall pick WITHOUT QUESTION if he were draft eligible this year. He’s a proven commodity at an elite position. Yet, all the Vikings really need out of him is the value of the 8th or 9th pick in the draft.

Let’s not mince words. Barring injury, this deal was a LAYUP for the Vikings. Keep in mind what Jared Allen has accomplished and then consider who his defensive linemates were in Kansas City. Now, he gets to line up alongside Kevin and Pat Williams; the best 4-3 tackles in the NFC. The Vikes added the league’s best young defensive end to a defense that already led the league in rushing defense. Even if their pass offense continues to struggle this season, the combination of a stifling defense and the NFC’s top rushing offense should give them as easy a road to the playoffs as any team in the NFC.

Congrats to the Vikings fans; as an Eagles season ticket holder I’m jealous.

Shaun Alexander was given his release today, after 8 years in Seattle. The writing had been on the wall for some time, as the Seahawks went out and signed not one, but two free agent runners this offseason: T.J. Duckett and Julius Jones. Alexander has been synonymous with the Seahawks under Mike Holmgren’s tenure.

Over a 5-year period (2001-2005), Alexander enjoyed one of the most dominant statistical runs in NFL history:

• 1,653 rushes
• 7,504 rushing yards
• 4.54 YPR
• 87 rush TDs
• 183 receptions
• 1,346 receiving yards
• 11 receiving TDs
• 1,473 fantasy points
• 3 Pro Bowls
• 1 All Pro
• 1 NFL MVP

Unfortunately things haven’t been the same since Alexander’s MVP season. Over the last two years, he’s missed 9 regular season games, averaged just 3.6 yards per rush (after never falling below 4.0 in any season prior to 2006), and failed to break the 1,000-yard mark.

So what now? Alexander has expressed an eagerness to test the free agent market for the first time in his career; and there’s little question he’ll have suitors. With the NFL draft looming, expect teams to consider Alexander after they see how their drafts unfold this weekend.

Assessing his options:

1. Sign with a contender
2. Sign with a team desperate for RB help
3. Find a team that fits both criteria

Is Alexander willing to take a backseat or, at the very least, accept a role as part of a committee? Are there any teams that could be considered a) contenders AND b) could possibly use Alexander as their main runner? Let’s take a look at all the teams that finished 0.500 or better in 2007 as a starting point:

• New England Patriots (16-0) — L. Maroney
• Dallas Cowboys (13-3) — M. Barber
• Green Bay Packers (13-3) — R. Grant
• Indianapolis Colts (13-3) — J. Addai
• Jacksonville Jaguars (11-5) — F. Taylor & M. Jones-Drew
• San Diego Chargers (11-5) — L. Tomlinson
• Cleveland Browns (10-6) — J. Lewis
• New York Giants (10-6) — B. Jacobs
• Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6) — W. Parker
• Seattle Seahawks (10-6) — Not applicable for obvious reasons
• Tennessee Titans (10-6) — L. White
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-7) — E. Graham & W. Dunn
• Washington Redskins (9-7) — C. Portis
• Arizona Cardinals (8-8) — E. James
• Houston Texans (8-8) — A. Green & C. Brown
• Minnesota Vikings (8-8) — C. Taylor & A. Peterson
• Philadelphia Eagles (8-8) — B. Westbrook

Realistically, there are three teams out of this group where Alexander could be the main ball-carrier without upsetting the apple cart too much. Of course, in the NFL where parity abounds, there are a number of teams with losing records last year that could contend this season; particularly if they had a better ground game. Here are the bottom ten teams last year in rushing yards:

• Kansas City Chiefs (32nd) – Larry Johnson is under contract, was hurt last year
• Detroit Lions (31st) – Definitely in the market for a RB; will they draft one?
• Chicago Bears (30th) — Benson isn’t guaranteed anything
• Arizona Cardinals (29th) – James is under contract, would Alexander be any better?
• New Orleans Saints (28th) — Bush is there, and McAllister says he’ll be back this season
• San Francisco 49ers (27th) – Frank Gore should be healthy
• Atlanta Falcons (26th) — Signed Michael Turner to a monster deal
• St. Louis Rams (25th) – Steven Jackson is healthy
• Cincinnati Bengals (24th) — Need a runner, unless Rudi Johnson finds a fountain of youth

OK, so where does that leave us? Alexander is very likely going to have to accept a committee situation unless Chicago, Cincinnati or Detroit are willing to commit to him.

Where do YOU think Alexander will land?

Today the Bengals finally cut Chris Henry, after his fifth arrest since joining the team - once again, this latest incident is reputed to be related to assault and battery while under the influence of intoxicating substances of one sort or another.

Mike Frazier, Henry’s agent, continued with the same old platitudes about “helping” Henry -

“I just want to say that we’re sorry this all happened, and we will continue to try to work to help Chris,”

- but, quite honestly, there isn’t a cure for the arrogant ignorance displayed by this ex-Bengal. He has, all-too-obviously, fallen into folly due to the special-rules-for-special-athletes paradigm that certain star athletes believe apply to them (Michael Vick is another infamous example of the special-rules disease, which is in some cases terminal to NFL careers).

There is no other way to account for a person who, like Henry, repeatedly flouts the rule of law and civil authority without regard to the consequences for their multi-million dollar career. He truly is, in the words of the latest judge to preside over this most recent case involving Henry, “a one-man crime wave”.

Anyone who is willing to toss away the culmination of their life’s work for the thrill of beating up on an 18-year old is a dysfunctional loser who doesn’t deserve yet another chance in the NFL.

Fantasy owners, this is why character counts in the NFL. When you are sorting out your draft lists later on this year, remember to weight your lists to reflect who is a high-character player and who is a scumbag. When two players have roughly equal prospects for the upcoming season, the smart pick is to add the guy who isn’t a thug to your roster - it may just save you from wasting a draft pick on an idiot like Chris Henry.

The Panthers seem bound and determined to not be a one-man show in the receiving game this year. Although I don’t have the hard metrics to back this up, I think it’s fair to say Steve Smith has been among the most double-teamed receivers in the NFL over his career; if for no other reason than the lack of quality receiving options at other positions.

In 2008, things look brighter, at least on paper.

The Panthers have signed free agent D.J. Hackett to a 2-year, $3.5mm deal and will pair him opposite Smith, while veteran Muhsin Muhammad mans the 3rd spot. Hackett was clearly the best FA receiver left on the market, and his inability to land a big contract had many wondering whether he would turn tail and return to the Seahawks.

While Hackett didn’t break the bank, he does end up in an intriguing situation. Assuming QB Jake Delhomme is healthy, the Panthers have the makings of an offense that could throw for 4,000 yards this season. Smith should be the main benefactor, but there should be plenty of targets left for Hackett.

The key for Hackett is to REMAIN HEALTHY. Hackett missed 10 games last season and has started only 14 games in his four-year career. When healthy, Hackett is a big (6′2″, 208 pounds) receiver capable of making plays in traffic.

Hard not to like this signing if you’re a Panthers fan. No financial commitment of any consequence yet they land one of the few young (Hackett is 26 years old) free agent receivers with the potential to become an above average starter.

For a team that supposedly had no leverage, the Cardinals come out looking pretty good today. Larry Fitzgerald, due $14.6mm in 2008, signed a new 4-year, $40mm contract today ending weeks of speculation that he would have to be traded in order for the Cardinals to field a 53-man roster.

According to reports, the deal includes:

• $40mm total value over 4 years
• $15mm signing bonus
• $2mm in 2008 salary
• $5mm option bonus before 2009 season
• $30mm in guarantees

Yes, that’s a monster deal so why do I think the Cardinals came out looking good, you ask? Because in the process, they lowered Fitz’ cap number to $7.6mm in 2008, freeing up almost $9mm in cap room to field a competitive roster. On top of that, the Cards lock up the best YOUNG receiver in the game. Fitz is only 24 years old (he’ll turn 25 in August), and is easily among the most productive receivers in the history of the NFL at that age.

Consider:

Most Receiving Yards, Career (Players 24 years or younger)

Most Receptions, Career (Players 24 years or younger)

Most Receiving TDs, Career (Players 24 years or younger)

Just when you though the Raiders couldn’t get any nuttier, they go ahead and blow their own record for financial inadequacy right out of the water. We, like many others, wondered why the Raiders were so eager to commit $50.5mm including $18mm in guarantees to DT Tommy Kelly at the start of free agency. And when Al Davis followed that up with the questionable signing of safety Gibril Wilson to a 6-year, $39mm contract with $16mm in guarantees, we bit our tongue. But neither move comes close to yesterday’s signing of Javon Walker.

According to several sources, the Raiders are putting the finishing touches on a 6-year, $55 million contract. The deal allegedly includes $16mm in guarantees and will pay him $27mm over the first three years of the deal.

That is BAFFLING.

Even if we accept the notion that this year’s free agent contracts are driven by the inflation of a rising salary cap, how on Earth can the Raiders justify the sensibility of this signing?

• Randy Moss, he of the 23 TD receptions and Hall of Fame credentials, just signed a 3-year, $27mm deal with New England. Moss got $15mm guaranteed. The Raiders are paying Walker MORE guaranteed money than Randy Moss!
• Jerry Porter, another Raiders castoff, signed a 6-year deal with the Jaguars. The difference? It was for $30mm with $10mm guaranteed. In other words, Walker is getting 2x what Porter got.

It would be one thing if the Raiders were signing Walker based solely on his talent, with no concern toward his prior injuries or personality quirks. But how can you ignore either of those factors?

• Demanded a trade from Green Bay
• Demanded a trade/release from Denver
• Complained about his contractual status on both teams
• Has undergone not one, not two, but THREE knee surgeries in the last three years

Does that sound like someone you break the bank for, and give a monster contract to without showing his stuff? While there were other teams interested in Javon, does anyone honestly think another team would’ve come close to matching that deal?

If Walker is healthy, he can produce; let’s not mistake that. He’s scored 30 TDs in 72 games, and has two 1,000-yard seasons under his belt. But given his attitude and injury risk; not to mention the potentially impressionable nature of 2nd year QB JaMarcus Russell; this signing makes little sense. Walker has all the advantage here, where is the Raiders leverage?

The silver (& black) lining is that savvy fantasy football owners can successfully ignore Walker in 2008. I’m sure his “potential” will mean he gets drafted far too early for the risks involved. Let someone else take that risk while you build your roster the right way.

It’s hard to call yourself an NFL fan without acknowledging the omnipresent retirement talk surrounding Brett Favre the last few seasons. Whether it be a hasty press conference at a charity golf tournament to tell us he hasn’t decided yet, or the constant paralysis by analysis last offseason until he made it official; Favre has been toying with retirement for a few seasons now.

Ironically, it was THIS offseason when the chatter had died down some. Coming off a 13-3 season and an MVP-caliber performance (by far his best personal stats in years), most [myself included] assumed Favre would return in 2008 to make one more run at a Super Bowl title.

That’s what we all get for becoming complacent.

This morning, Brett “4″ Favre announced his retirement.

• Voice mail from Brett Favre to Chris Mortensen

Listening to that voice mail, you get the sense of what enormous pressure Favre put on himself to improve on 2007. And he’s right, anything less than a Super Bowl appearance would’ve been “less” than what they accomplished this year in many people’s minds.Today is a day to salute one of the greatest QBs to ever play the game.Favre’s Accomplishments

• Three time (3) MVP [the only 3-time MVP in league history]
• Seven (7) All Pro selections
• Nine (9) Pro Bowl selections
• 253 consecutive starts [something that will probably never be broken]
• 1st all-time, pass attempts (8,758)
• 1st all-time, pass completions (5,377)
• 1st all-time, passing yards (61,655)
• 1st all-time, passing TDs (442)
• 2 Super Bowl appearances
• 1 Super Bowl victory

It wouldn’t be right for a Footballguys tribute not to mention what a potent fantasy football player Favre was…

Favre’s Fantasy Accomplishments

Exhibit 1: Favre is the all-time leader among QBs in fantasy points scored (1960-Present)

Exhibit 2: Fantasy points per game (Min: 100 games played)

Exhibit 3: Consistency from start to finish

• Finished no worse than 13th among fantasy QBs for SIXTEEN (16) consecutive years
• Finished among the top 10 fantasy QB a record FOURTEEN (14) seasons
• Finished among the top 8 a record TWELVE (12) seasons
• Seven (7) top-5 finishes
• Five (5) top-2 finishes
• Three (3) CONSECUTIVE #1 fantasy rankings

Nothing makes a fantasy player happier than a gunslinger who piles on the yards. Favre was one of the best, let’s never forget that.

Big Ben Roethlisberger signed an 8-year, $102mm extension today that guarantees him $36mm. Considering Big Ben is taking the same guaranteed money that Peyton Manning and Michael Vick got a few years ago, it’s hard to argue the Steelers are paying him too much. Big Ben has not only brought a SB title to Pittsburgh, but is coming off his best season:

• 264 completions
• 404 attempts
• 65.3% completion
• 3,154 yards
• 32 TDs
• 11 INTs
• 104.1 paser rating

Personally, I think this is a smart deal. Locking up a young franchise passer is smart business. Given the inflation we’re seeing in salaries this year, they could’ve paid him a lot more and set a new market for franchise QBs, but instead basically met the pre-existing market. That’s good business.

But looking a little deeper, should Steelers fans be worried about this contract? Ben becomes the 7th QB in NFL history awarded a $100mm contract. In each prior case, the team has fared better BEFORE the contract than after.

In all but Donovan McNabb’s case, the QBs landing $100mm contracts have led their teams to a worse winning percentage after the fact. In three cases, the players winning percentage has plummeted, including the three most recent $100mm QBs (Culpepper, Vick, Palmer).

Is this just a random statistical quirk? Probably so. Drew Bledsoe got hurt and only played two games for New England after signing his extension. In Mike Vick and Carson Palmer’s cases, their team’s defenses have fallen off a cliff coincident with their new contracts. But can that not be blamed, at least in part, to the fact these new $100mm deals removed some of the flexibility GMs had in strengthening other parts of the team? Perhaps.

Either way, for now I still say the Steelers were smart to give Big Ben the big extension. Now if the Steelers end up losing more games than they have to date with Big Ben under center, we can revisit this phenomenon more intently.

That didn’t take long…

…just a day after signing Michael “The Burner” Turner to a monster free agent contract, the Falcons released Warrick Dunn.

The 33-year old tailback will have little trouble finding work elsewhere; particularly if he’s willing to accept a role as a backup and situational contributor on a contending team.

Possible Landing Spots?

It’s never too early to handicap where Dunn might land, here are five teams that make imminent sense in our minds:

1. Indianapolis Colts — The Colts don’t have a reliable backup on the roster, and Dunn would be a perfect complement to Joseph Addai. He likely would accept a lesser role on the Colts because they are among a handful of Super Bowl contenders. Given his prior relationship with Tony Dungy when they were in Tampa Bay; this situation almost seems too logical to be true. Update: OK, it seems I may have sold Kenton Keith short. He had a solid 2007 season with 533 yards (4.4 YPC), 13 receptions and 4 total TDs.
2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Jon Gruden is no stranger to veteran contributors and Dunn has strong ties to the Tampa area from his days as a Buc. The Bucs would probably have to make a bigger financial commitment to Dunn than the Colts would, simply because of the less certain playoff outlook.
3. Detroit Lions – Kevin Jones may not be ready for the start of the season, and the Lions have virtually no one ready to step in and play. This is one of the few places Dunn could conceivably earn big playing time; and HC Rod Marinelli is a Dunn fan from their days in Tampa.
4. Dallas Cowboys — The Cowboys never seem to shy away from aging veterans and Jerry Jones could easily view Dunn as a solid backup and complement to Marion Barber; who is slated for a heavier workload in 2008 with the departure of Julius Jones.
5. Tennessee Titans — Pairing Dunn with LenDale White could be an interesting one-two punch. Dunn’s veteran presence, work ethic and his commitment to blocking would serve as great examples for White and fellow youngster Chris Henry. It’s unclear whether the Titans are open to adding someone 11 years into the league; but if they are, Dunn could be a nice two-year answer.

Where do you think Dunn will land? Do you think he’ll have any tangible fantasy value in 2008? Let’s hear your thoughts in our discussion forum.

Michael “The Burner” Turner has signed a 6-year, $34.5mm deal including $15mm in guaranteed money. Turner, easily the class of the free agent RB market, took a few days to sign with Atlanta but not because he was weighing other options. As far as we know, Turner’s only visit and offer came from the Falcons.

Turner (5′10″, 237 pounds, 25 years old) is a big back who can push the pile and drag defenders when he gets a head of steam. While not a pure speed merchant, he has a 2nd gear which is a rare thing for someone his size. Used sparingly as a backup to LaDainian Tomlinson, Turner has performed admirably in spot duty. Take a gander at Turner’s career numbers:

• 228 carries
• 1,257 yards
• 5.5 yards per carry
• 6 TDs
• 11 receptions
• 71 yards

In with Turner, Out with Dunn?

In an era when many teams are using two-back systems, expect Turner to serve as the Falcons main ball-carrier while Jerious Norwood logs 100-150 carries (ideally if both stay healthy). This signing all but ends Warrick Dunn’s career in Atlanta. A lot of people expected Norwood to overtake Dunn last year in attempts, but somehow the cagey veteran started 15 games and logged 227 carries. Unfortunately for Falcons fans, he averaged just 3.2 yards per carry.

Savvy fantasy owners understand that Turner isn’t going to average 5.5 yards per carry as a full-time back. However, it would be shocking if he doesn’t put up much better per carry numbers than Dunn has of late. Consider that Norwood has averaged 6.2 yards per carry in his two seasons; so that Falcons line isn’t incapable of run blocking.

Where Turner will have to prove himself is as a red zone threat and a receiver; two critical parts to any fantasy runner’s success. Turner only has six touchdowns in four seasons. Yes, he had to play behind the league’s highest scoring RB, but still, we don’t know how good Turner can be in short yardage situations. In the receiving department, he’ll have to improve on his current scouting reports, or else look for Norwood to notch most of the receptions out of the backfield.

What should we expect in 2008?

I’ll throw out 250 carries for 1,100-1,200 yards and 7-9 TDs as a baseline. We’ll tweak his projections and put more meat on the bones later in the offseason; once we have a better picture of the rest of the team’s makeup. The Falcons need to implement a new offensive system and probably have moves to make in free agency and the draft to secure the offensive line. Once those moves have happened (or not), we’ll see whether Turner is going to live up to the enormous fantasy billing he’ll receiver from a lot of people this summer.

Before the start of free agency, Bernard Berrian indicated he wanted a contract similar to the 6-year, $36mm deal Deion Branch received from the Seattle Seahawks a season ago. While few questioned whether Berrian was a coveted free agent (he’s the #2 WR on most boards, behind Randy Moss), a lot of folks questioned whether Berrian would and should be paid as one of the elite at the position.

As I’ve been saying for weeks now, the market dictates the price as much as the talent does. We’ve seen free agents land monster deals at every position, and it’s more about the rising salary cap (estimated $116mm) and team’s projected cap room (more than at any point in league history) than it is about saying these free agents are the best in the league.

Regardless of whether you think Berrian is worth top-10 money, he stood a very good chance at landing that kind of contract this offseason.

And so he has…The Minnesota Vikings have signed Berrian to a 6-year, $42mm deal with $16mm guaranteed. That may seem like big coin for a guy that’s never had 1,000-yard season, but the Vikings are hoping Berrian is on the cusp of greatness and will leverage his deep speed to take the pressure off QB Tarvaris Jackson as well as the two-headed running attack of Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor.

How much will Berrian help the Vikings passing attack?

Without looking up the stats, I bet a lot of you would assume the Bears passing attack was almost as bad as the Vikings last year, right? Now go look at the stats:

• Passing Yards — 3,362 Bears vs. 2,745 Vikings
• Attempts — 569 Bears vs. 432 Vikings
• Completions — 327 Bears vs. 249 Vikings
• Completion Percentage — 57.5% Bears vs. 57.6% Vikings
• Yards per Attempt — 5.9 Bears vs. 6.4 Vikings
• Passing TDs — 18 Bears vs. 12 Vikings
• TDs conversion percentage — 3.2% Bears vs. 2.7% Vikings

If these numbers look ugly, they are. But that’s not the key takeaway. The key takeaway is that the Vikings numbers make the Bears look like the Greatest Show on Turf. For all of the Bears ineptitude and the dissatisfaction with the three headed QB monster of Griese/Orton/Grossman, they collectively were MORE productive than what Tarvaris Jackson and his backups produced in Minnesota.

As a group, the Vikings WRs converted 56.5% of their intended targets. That’s not very good, as you might expect. But here’s the bad news, Bernard Berrian has only converted 51.2% of his career targets. Let that sink in folks. For all of Berrian’s many talents, he’s managed to barely catch half of the targets thrown to him, yet is going to a team that had WORSE quarterbacking than what he enjoyed with the Bears.

But will this signing help Berrian or his fantasy owners?

Now, we know Berrian is a speedy receiver and, to his credit, he is coming off a career season (70 catches for 948 yards and 5 TDs). But is he an all around difference maker? Even if you argue his numbers were hurt by the QB situation in Chicago, how can anyone say his situation is MORE advantageous in Minnesota?

At least in Chicago, Berrian had the advantage of seeing a lot of targets because the Bears couldn’t run the ball. The Vikings have a phenomenal rushing attack and have no intentions of throwing the ball anywhere close to the 569 times the Bears did a year ago. So even if you assume Berrian can somehow improve upon his lackluster catch percentage in a new environment, it still seems unlikely he’ll see as many targets.

• In 2007, Berrian was targeted 127 times [22% of the Bears pass attempts]
• Berrian would’ve needed to have seen 30% of the Vikings attempts last year just to match his output
• Even if you assume the Vikings will throw a bit more in 2008, they aren’t going to dramatically shift the offensive balance given how superb their rushing attack is

Could Berrian put together a 1,000+ yard season  next year? Certainly, but a lot of things need to happen.

1. He needs to be more consistent catching short- and intermediate passes
2. The Vikings need to see DRAMATIC improvement from Tarvaris Jackson
3. The Vikings need to commit to a more balanced run/pass ratio [despite having a dominant rushing attack]

I think this is one of those signings that helps the Vikings a lot more than it helps fantasy football owners. Given Berrian’s contract and the fact he’s the clear #1 in Minnesota, I expect a lot of fantasy players will covet Berrian and draft him much too early in 2008. I won’t be one of them.

It wasn’t long ago that defensive tackle was considered one of the pre-eminent positions in the league. GMs and coaches coveted young defensive tackles that showed even a hint of promise. Aging run stuffers seemingly have endless job opportunities. Logically speaking, this is as much about the physical uniqueness of the position as anything. How many 300+ pound, athletic guys exist in the gene pool? Now ask yourself how many of them can also master an NFL playbook, play with a high motor, stay healthy, and make plays game in, game out. Sounds like a rarity? IT IS.

It also wasn’t long ago that NFL trades were a rarity.

Yet, both of those notions are being turned on their head this offseason. A bevy of the league’s defensive tackles have been traded in recent days. And the trades haven’t involved developmental backups, either. The trades read like a laundry list of the league’s top tackles, young and old.

Marcus Stroud traded to the Bills for 3rd and 5th round picks in 2008

Stroud (6′6″, 310 pounds, 29 years old) requested a trade from the Jaguars and was granted his request when the Bills came forward. From 2003-2005, Stroud was arguably the most dominant run-stuffer in the league; pairing with John Henderson to form a daunting interior. But after three consecutive Pro Bowls, Stroud hurt his ankle in 2006 and had microfracture surgery. He missed time rehabbing in 2006 and the ankle again impacted his play in 2007. On top of that, Stroud was suspended four games for violating the league’s substance abuse program. Assuming Stroud is healthy, he gives the Bills a major upgrade in place of the recently released Larry Tripplett. He’s only 29 years old and has three years remaining on his deal; so the Bills have relatively little risk in making this move.

Kris Jenkins traded to the Jets for 3rd and 5th round picks in 2008

It wasn’t long ago that Jenkins (6′4″, 335 pounds, 28 years old) was considered THE elite young tackle in the league. He notched All Pro nods in his 2nd and 3rd years, combining solid run-stopping technique with an intense inside pass rush (12 sacks in 2002-2003). Jenkins then suffered setbacks in 2004 (shoulder) and 2005 (ACL) which robbed him of his status as an elite player. To his credit, Jenkins rebounded in 2006 and earned his 3rd Pro Bowl nod; and played all 16 games in 2007, as well. Unlike Stroud, Jenkins will be asked to play a different position. The Jets use a 3-4 defensive front and Jenkins will be the team’s new nose tackle. It will be an adjustment but Jenkins has a wide body and low center of gravity, so the adjustment shouldn’t be problematic. For his troubles, the Jets signed him to a new 5-year, $35mm extension.

Shaun Rogers traded to the Browns for CB Leigh Bodden and a 3rd round pick in 2008

Rogers is a physical marvel (6′4″, 340 pounds, 28 years old) with the athleticism of a defensive end but the size of a traditional run stuffer. Perhaps no better indication of his athleticism than the fact he’s blocked 11 (yes, 11!) kicks in his career. In seven seasons in Detroit, he started nearly every game and finished last season with a career high 7 sacks. He signed a six-year extension after the 2004 season and was, at the time, viewed as one of the best young lineman in the NFL. He added Pro Bowl nods to his resume in the following two seasons. However, Rogers injured 2006 season got him off on the wrong foot with new head coach Rod Marinelli, and their relationship never appeared to recover despite a solid 2007 campaign. Rogers will significantly enhance the Browns front line; and the Browns won’t have to immediately commit to a new contract for him.

Corey Williams traded to the Browns for a 2nd round pick in 2008

Williams (6′4″, 313 pounds, 27 years old) emerged this season in Green Bay as a 4-3 tackle capable of periodic dominance. Despite being part of a rotation in Green Bay, Williams put up 14 sacks over the last two years in addition to 69 tackles. The Packers franchised Williams and seemed ready to commit to him long-term. But shortly after the start of free agency, the Packers shipped Williams to the Browns for a 2nd round pick. The Browns will use Williams as a defensive end in the 3-4 scheme and have signed him to a new 6-year, $38mm deal that guarantees him $14mm.

So is this trade frenzy indicative of a new NFL paradigm or simply a statistical quirk of this offseason? It seems that NFL teams are no longer beholden keeping high priced players around hoping they will learn to fit into the system and/or get over their unhappiness at the situation. Will all of these deals work out for the acquiring teams? Certainly not. But in early March when every deal has an optimistic light, it certainly seems like the acquiring teams landed key contributors that would’ve been impossible to find through the draft or free agency.

The Browns continue their free agent bonanza, signing Donte Stallworth to a 7-year, $35mm contract with $10mm in guarantees. This looks like a smart move for player and team alike. After wearing out his welcome in New Orleans, Stallworth was traded to the Eagles in 2006 and averaged a league best 19.1 yards per catch; but the Eagles deemed him expendable because he only played in 12 games and caught 38 passes. Last year, Stallworth was supposed to be Tom Brady’s deep threat; that is, until they traded for Randy Moss a few weeks after signing Donte. He still chipped in 46 catches but wasn’t a centerpiece of the Patriots dynamic offensive attack.

Now, Stallworth gets stability and a chance to establish himself on one of the league’s up-and-coming offenses. His speed should fit perfectly alongside Pro Bowl WR Braylon Edwards and TE Kellen Winslow. QB Derek Anderson led the league in yards per completion last year; and Stallworth’s addition will mean even more commitment to an aggressive, downfield passing attack.

What could this mean for the Browns offense?

Last year, Joe Jurevicius caught 50 receptions for 614 yards (12.3 per catch) with 3 TDs as the starter opposite Braylon Edwards. No other Browns wideout caught more than 8 passes.

So now the Browns add the speedy Stallworth to the mix; allowing them to not only stretch the field more, but to also user more 3-WR sets with Jurevicius (a big, tall, slow receiver) working out of the slot.

Although one can’t extrapolate numbers directly, let’s just have some fun with numbers for a second; if Donte Stallworth matched his career averages last year in place of  Joe Jurevicius, how would the Browns offense have looked?

• Jurevicius’ 2007 totals — 50 receptions for 614 yards (12.3 per catch), 3 TDs
• Stallworth’s Career averages — 15.1 yards per catch, 1 TD every 9 catches
• Implied Stallworth 2007 totals — 50 receptions for 755 yards (15.1 per catch), 5 TDs

If Derek Anderson can approximate his output from 2007 again this season, the Browns could be looking at a 4,000-yard season and 30+ passing TDs. WOW.

Asante Samuel, considered the top defensive free agent by most, wasted little time in finding a new home. Today he signed a 6-year, $57mm deal with the Philadelphia Eagles. Samuel has an astounding 16 interceptions in the last two seasons, excluding the game-changing picks he made in the playoffs, as well.

Why the Eagles made this move…

Inexplicably, more than a few Eagles fans (and radio hosts) wondered today why this was the Eagles big free agent move. Putting aside the absurdity of questioning the acquisition of the premiere free agent in this year’s crop, there is an extremely obvious reason why this move makes inordinate sense:

• 11 interceptions
• 19 takeaways

The Eagles were among the worst in the league last season at creating turnovers; and that kept a top 10 defense (statistically) from being a real difference maker. Samuel single-handedly changes that dynamic.

But what about Lito Sheppard?

Lito Sheppard is, in his own right, an excellent cornerback and unheralded for his importance to the Eagles defensive scheme. Unfortunately, Sheppard has missed 14 regular season games in the last three seasons and has a reputation for being a “slow healer.” He’s also expressed unhappiness about his contract status.

So is Lito going to be an Eagle in 2008?

There are two telling quotes from Andy Reid today that paint the picture:

1)  “We’re obviously trying to strengthen the defense,” Reid said. “Obviously, I think the cornerback position is very important. When you have an opportunity to get the best one in the business, then you need to look at that. I welcome him aboard, and I know [defensive coordinator] Jim Johnson has great plans for Asante.

2)  Head coach Andy Reid said Samuel will be his starting left cornerback for 2008. Beyond that, Reid said “we’ll work things out from there.”

Lito wants a bigger contract, and is now losing his spot to the league’s highest paid corner. Does that sound like Lito is in the Birds’ plans for 2008?

OK, so what are the Eagles going to do with Lito?

Expect the Eagles to aggressively pursue a trade opportunity. Sheppard is a Pro Bowl corner and signed through 2011; so he’s got immense trade value. Several teams have already expressed an interest in him. What can the Eagles expect back in return? That’s entirely dependent on the team in question. Sheppard could be packaged with one or two of the Eagles draft picks for an upgrade at receiver (think Roy Williams or Larry Fitzgerald) OR he could be swapped for a pass rusher like Jared Allen. Is either move likely? NO, of course not. But possible? Certainly so.

Lest anyone think Bill Parcells was going to take a measured approach toward rebuilding the woeful Miami Dolphins, think again. In what has to be the busiest single day in the history of NFL free agency, Parcells and his staff have signed a flurry of players in an attempt to right a ship that finished 1-15 a season ago. The Dolphins had approximately $40mm under the cap to spend; and Parcells appears ready to use every last bit of it. Today’s signings ranged from veteran locker room guys (e.g., Jason Ferguson and Sean Ryan) to potential Pro Bowlers (e.g., Calvin Pace). And considering the team’s cap situation, Parcells probably isn’t done yet.

A Recap of Bill’s Frenzied Friday

LB Calvin Pace — Rated as one of the top players at his position, Pace is exactly the kind of player Parcells’ covets. Pace is big (a converted defensive end) and thrived as the rush ‘backer in the Cardinals 3-4 last year. Although this isn’t official yet, several reports have the Fins giving Pace $20mm guaranteed. The addition of Pace raises questions about whether the team plans on keeping Joey Porter around. NOTE: Despite earlier reports, Pace did not sign with Miami but instead signed a 6-year, $42mm deal with the Jets.

OG Justin Smiley — The Dolphins signed Smiley to a 5-year, $25mm deal including $9mm in guarantees. Smiley has been a starter for most of his career (in San Francisco) and significantly upgrades the interior of the Dolphins line. Smiley helped open holes for Frank Gore and will likely slide in between center Samson Satele and LT L.J. Shelton.

DT Randy Starks — Considering how much defensive tackles are netting at the start of free agency, this signing seems like a downright steal. The Dolphins signed the 24-year old tackle to a 5-year, $21mm deal with $7mm in guarantees. Starks may not be a star (he lost his starting job in Tennessee to Tony Brown) but he’s got the size (6′3″, 314 pounds) and technique to emerge in the Fins scheme.

QB Josh McCown — McCown was a part-time starter in Arizona and Oakland, and may find himself starting in Week One for Miami depending on what else the Dolphins do this preseason. Given a 2-year, $6.25mm contract; McCown is very much a safety valve until John Beck (or someone else not currently on the roster) are ready to take over full-time. This isn’t a major financial commitment, nor should it be considering McCown has never finished a season with a passer rating above 74.9.

WR Ernest Wilford — Wilford was deemed expendable by the Jaguars after the acquisitions of Jerry Porter and Troy Williamson; but he quickly found a new home in Miami signing a 4-year, $13mm deal with $6mm in guarantees. Last year, Wilford caught 45 passes for 518 yards while scoring three times. He’s not a difference maker per se, but his addition will help stabilize the intermediate passing game. Wilford is a big (6′4″, 218 pounds) receiver with loads of starting experience, and will compliment the speedy Ted Ginn Jr.

TE Sean Ryan — Ryan is another long-time Parcells favorite. Signed to a one-year deal, this is more about bringing in a high character guy that Parcells thinks will help the locker room as well as special teams. Ryan isn’t going to be asked to do much offensively; he has a whopping 9 career receptions in four seasons. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

NT Jason Ferguson – Ferguson just didn’t fit into Wade Phillips attacking scheme in Dallas, but should have a place in Dallas’ system. The Cowboys traded Ferguson to Miami today, reuniting him with Parcells for the third time in his 12-year career. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

These moves probably are just the beginning as Parcells, GM Jeff Ireland and the coaching staff look to fundamentally alter the DNA of this team and return the Dolphins to prominence.

The premier free agent offensive tackle is off the market, as Flozell Adams has re-signed with the Dallas Cowboys for a reported 6-year, $42 million deal with $15mm in guarantees. Adams has been a Pro Bowler in four of the last five seasons and anchors an offensive line that helped the Cowboys field one of the most explosive (and balanced) offenses in the league. Adams was a candidate for the Cowboys franchise tag, but they opted to tag safety Ken Hamlin instead. They obviously bet that Adams would give them first dibs at signing him; and the Cowboys gamble was rewarded.

With Jordan Gross (Carolina) and Stacy Andrews (Cincinnati) franchised and now Adams signed; there are really no top caliber options in free agency for teams needing tackle help.

So who benefits from this deal?

• Adams — the man gets his $$$$
• The Cowboys — they keep their best offensive lineman intact
• Maurice Williams, Wayne Gandy, Fred Miller and the other free agent tackles — Supply and demand at play
• Jake Long — the pre-eminent college tackle should now be assured of a top 5 position in April

A lot of people are scratching their heads today. On the eve of free agency, the Oakland Raiders have signed Tommy Kelly to a 7-year, $50.5mm deal, making him — wait for it — the HIGHEST PAID DEFENSIVE TACKLE IN LEAGUE HISTORY. Yes, you heard that right folks…the Raiders signed the relatively unknown lineman for more money ($18mm guaranteed) than any lineman to ever suit up in the league.

So who is Tommy Kelly? He’s 6′6″, 300 pound defensive end that’s going to move inside to play undertackle in place of retired Warren Sapp. As you can see from his measurables, Kelly is built more like a defensive tackle; and the Raiders obviously think he can flourish inside. That said, Kelly’s best season was 2006 when he logged 68 tackles and 3.5 sacks. Last year, Kelly started six games but tore his ACL and was lost for the second half of the season.

If you think the Raiders overpaid for Kelly’s services, you’re not alone. Adam Schefter remarked on tonight’s NFL Total Access that a number of personnel executives were stunned by the signing. Now, if Kelly turns out to be a Pro Bowl caliber defensive tackle, the deal would be justified.

Cory Redding REDUX? Before Raiders fans get too excited, let’s remember what happened to Lions fans last season. A year ago, the Lions signed Cory Redding to a monster deal, making him the highest paid lineman. Lions fans pointed toward Redding’s solid 2006 (47 tackles, 8 sacks) and argued that Redding was on the verge of becoming a dominant young tackle. Well, a year later Redding logged a whopping 37 tackles and ONE SACK in 16 starts for one of the worst defenses in the league. This deal sure smells a lot like that one, doesn’t it?

Who benefits? That’s an easy one…any defensive tackle that’s up for a new contract benefits. Imagine the dance of joy going on at Tommie Harris’ house tonight. Think of how much the Titans are going to have to pay Albert Haynesworth if they want him to sign a multi-year extension instead of the one year franchise tender.

If there’s one lesson to take from this [aside from Al Davis’ growing senility], it’s that this year’s free agent class is going to land huge contracts by historical standards. With the rising salary cap combined with an unprecedented amount of salary cap room; teams are flush with cash and will find reasons to spend their money.

While it’s true that two of this year’s top options at tight end were franchised:

• Dallas Clark in Indianapolis
• L.J. Smith in Philadelphia

…there are a number of viable options remaining at the TE position. Whether you want a proven, pass-catching stud with some injury questions (Alge Crumpler) or a blocking beast (Kyle Brady) or something in between (Marcus Pollard); there are choices. Given the breadth of available free agents, expect a lot of movement for very reasonable financial terms.

The Top Tight Ends on the Market

1. Alge Crumpler (6′2″, 264 pounds, 30 years old) – The seven year veteran is the gem of the free agent market; but recent injury concerns might keep him from reaping top dollar. Crumpler is a perennial Pro Bowler and actually managed to make Michael Vick look like a real NFL passer at times. Even though he only started 10 games last year, Crumpler caught 42 passes for 444 yards and 5 TDs. Crumpler also can stretch the field; averaging 13.3 yards per catch over his career, and logging catches of 40 or more yards in all but one season. Expect Crumpler to visit several teams before signing a multi-year deal as a starter for a playoff contender.
2. Bo Scaife (6′3″, 249 pounds, 27 years old) – Scaife is a restricted free agent and probably isn’t leaving Tennessee. But he’s young and sure handed; making it entirely possible some team will sign him to an offer sheet. Expect Scaife to re-sign with Tennessee with a multi-year deal.
3. Ben Utecht (6′6″, 251 pounds, 26 years old) — Everyone knows about Dallas Clark, but Utecht is quietly a valuable part of the Colts offensive attack. Not only has he caught 68 passes over the last two seasons, but he’s averaged better than 11 yards per reception. Although he’s a restricted free agent, his age and versatility make him an attractive option for a team looking at upgrading their starter without breaking the bank.
4. Eric Johnson (6′3″, 252 pounds, 28 years old) – Johnson, when healthy, is a solid pass catcher but lacks explosiveness (career 9.1 yards per catch). He’s also failed to play a full season yet in his career. That said, he caught 48 passes in 12 starts last year as a Saint, and will get an opportunity to make plays for some team in 2008.

The (Near) Complete List