Footballguys Blog

September 8, 2008

Monday Night Football = Heaven. Double-Dip for Football Craving Fans!

Filed under: Rookie, Oakland, Fantasy Football, Losing Efforts, Position Battle, Football, Goal Line Carries, DEN, Denver, Losers, Eddie Royal, Fantasy, Vikings, Packers, Raiders, NFC North, AFC West, Darren McFadden, Margin of Victory, NFL, Broncos — Mark Wimer @ 12:58 pm

Hello, Monday! Finally, we are back to that time of year when we actually anticipate Mondays (well, at least Monday night - for Monday Night Football!).

Tonight we’ll get a special treat from the NFL - 2 divisional rivalries, renewed first in the Hallowed Ground at Lambeau Field - and then we’ll watch along with all the crazed Raider fans in the Black Hole at McAfee Coliseum. Happy Times are Here Again!

For fantasy enthusiasts, there are several important story lines to follow in each matchup. In the 7 PM ET game, Minnesota at Green Bay, we’ll get to see:

How well Aaron Rodgers plays in a full-speed, 60-minute NFL contest
Whether Ryan Grants’ hamstring is a worrisome issue or not
If Tarvaris Jackson has actually improved over last year
If Bernard Berrian can bring respectability to the WR corps in Minnesota
How scary Adrian Peterson looks in his sophomore season in the NFL

During the nightcap game in Oakland, we’ll start to find out:

If JaMarcus Russell can make a silk purse out of the sow’s ear lineup of WRs in Oakland
Whether Darren McFadden is a fantasy stud or a fantasy bust
How the Raiders will parse out carries between Justin Fargas, McFadden and Michael Bush
If Zach Miller is the “next” Antonio Gates
If Jay Cutler can win a game without Brandon Marshall
Who is the legitimate #2 WR on Denver’s roster behind Marshall
If Selvin Young can flourish as a featured back
If Andre Hall will grind out TDs for his owners from goal line situations this season (or not)
If Tony Scheffler is the “next” Antonio Gates

All the drafts are over, all the trash talk from draft day is in the books - after tonight, some of us will be 1-0 and on our way to a trophy, some will be 0-1 and on the way to a crying towel - and a few will limp across the finish line in week 1 with a tie.

Get ready to lay out the smack talk on Tuesday - will your team get what it needs Monday night, or will you watch your rival blow past your guys at the last minute? It’s must see T.V., fantasy fanatics! Enjoy!

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September 5, 2008

Uh-Oh Jason Campbell Owners: East Coast Redskins Sputter With West Coast Offense

Filed under: Jim Zorn, Transition, Losers, Losing Efforts, Stupidity, Giants Stadium, Strategy, NFC East, RB, QB, WR, TE, Coaching, Redskins — Mark Wimer @ 9:27 am

We all knew that Jason Campbell was going to have to work very hard to absorb yet another offensive system under Jim Zorn and the rest of the Redskins’ new coaching staff. But last night, we saw just how unpolished and hesitant the Redskins are coming out of the gates during 2008.

Washington converted 3 of 13 third downs last night. Washington crossed the 50-yard line into New York territory a grand total of 3 times - and the only score was mostly due to a big kickoff return by Rock Cartwright (which got the Redskins’ offense started at the NYG 45), rather than due to Campbell and his team mate’s efforts.

”A team held us to three and out for over half the game,” commented Clinton Portis after the loss. “We have to be better than that.” (Portis managed 23/84/0 rushing during the game, 3.65 yards per carry, and didn’t catch a pass last night).

One of the Redskins’ best offensive weapons, Chris Cooley, was (stupidly) rarely targeted and only caught 1 ball for 7 yards. Though Santana Moss did reel in a TD, he also made some huge drops in critical situations during the contest.

Campbell finished the night with 15/27 for 125 net yards, 1 TD and 0 interceptions, but he garnered 9 of the completions on dink-and-dunk passes during the 4th quarter as he (ineffectively) tried to hurry up the offense - highlighted by a failed 4th-down conversion and then a failed 2-minute drill (the final Washington drive started at 1:31 in the 4th, at the Washington 33, and sputtered to a halt as time ran out at the New York 32). Campbell was harassed by the pass rush for most of the night and, excepting the one scoring drive, fairly inept during this first contest.

The Redskins - and fantasy owners heavily invested in Washington’s lineup - are in for a long September, at the minimum, it appears. This offense has a long way to go, folks.

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July 12, 2008

Falcons, Atlanta Fans Punished by NFL for Vick’s Crimes, Poor Finances

Filed under: NFC South, History, News, DB, Strategy, NFL, Losers, Offseason, Franchise, LB, DT, WR, RB, QB, TE, O-Line, DE, Punter, PK, Falcons — Mark Wimer @ 6:51 am

In case you haven’t been following the Mike Vick saga closely since he was banished from the league, the disgraced quarterback continues to haunt the Falcons, even from his prison cell.

The reasons that Vick is still a bogeyman to the Falcons have to do with more than merely the continuing bad PR and the embarrassment of the Falcons’ front office. The NFL has mandated that unless the Falcons recover actual $ from Vick, they will receive no cap relief for the amount of money that Vick owes them for breach of his contract. In other words, even though the Falcons and their fans were defrauded by Vick and cheated out of the quarterback play that they paid for in advance, and even though a court has determined that Vick owes the team $3.75 million in bonus money for breaching his contract, unless Vick feels like handing over the cash, the team and Atlanta fans are out of luck. Too bad, so sad.

Of course, the felon is seeking bankruptcy protection, claiming to be between $10 and $50 million in debt (though how it is possible to owe somewhere between $10 and $50 million but not be able to be more specific than a range of $40 million is a mystery to me). If Vick is really broke or simply hiding his assets in off-shore accounts is something for the courts to sort out - the bottom line is that Atlanta is going to have less money than the rest of the NFL to spend in free agency and on their own players while they rebuild the squad in the wake of the Vick debacle.

It hardly seems fair that Atlanta’s team, players, and the few remaining Falcons’ fans should have to foot the bill for a deceptive, profligate, animal-abusing thug, but that is the effect of the NFL’s ruling in this matter. Vick is a specter who can’t be exorcised, it appears.

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June 25, 2008

Running Backs (RB): Best “Losers” in Fantasy Football

Filed under: FBG, Game Log Dominator, Fantasy Football, Losing Efforts, RBs, Losers, Footballguys — Jason Wood @ 9:39 pm

The biggest difference between fantasy football and real football is that your team can consist of a bunch of losers and yet still blow the doors off your opponent. Sounds controversial? Not when you realize that I mean it literally. At the end of the day, we fantasy owners don’t really care whether the team’s our players suit up for get the WIN on Sunday, as long as our individual players rack up the stats. Sure, there is often a correlation between winning the game and putting up big offensive numbers, but it’s not always the case.

So just to get us back in the mindset of talking fantasy football, let’s take a moment to honor the best “losers” in fantasy football over the last 10 years.

Table 1: Best individual fantasy performances by a RB in a losing effort (1998-2007)

Rank	First	Last	Year	Week	Team	Opp	Result	Rush	RuYds	Recs	RecYds	TDs	FPTs
1	Priest	Holmes	2002	12	KC	SEA	L,32-39	23	197	7	110	3	48.7
2	Barry	Sanders	1998	2	DET	CIN	L,28-34	26	185	1	44	3	40.9
3	Priest	Holmes	2001	13	KC	OAK	L,26-28	28	168	5	109	2	39.7
4	Ronnie	Brown	2007	3	MIA	NYJ	L,28-31	23	112	6	99	3	39.1
5	Priest	Holmes	2002	3	KC	NE	L,38-41	30	180	5	18	3	37.8
6	Marshall	Faulk	2000	16	STL	TB	L,35-38	22	79	4	53	4	37.2
7	Travis	Henry	2002	1	BUF	NYJ	L,31-37	31	149	6	29	3	35.8
8	Ricky	Williams	2002	13	MIA	BUF	L,21-38	27	228	4	7	2	35.5
9	Deuce	McAllister	2003	12	NO	PHI	L,20-33	19	184	4	48	2	35.2
10	Deuce	McAllister	2002	8	NO	ATL	L,35-37	17	115	5	56	3	35.1
11	Larry	Johnson	2005	14	KC	DAL	L,28-31	26	143	3	28	3	35.1
12	Ahman	Green	2003	10	GB	PHI	L,14-17	29	192	3	32	2	34.4
13	Marcel	Shipp	2002	15	ARI	STL	L,28-30	26	79	2	79	3	33.8
14	Tim	Biakabutuka	1999	4	CAR	WAS	L,36-38	12	142	1	12	3	33.4
15	LaDainian	Tomlinson	2003	4	SD	OAK	L,31-34	28	187	7	24	1	33.2
16	Priest	Holmes	2002	7	KC	DEN	L,34-37	24	113	7	38	3	33.1
17	Priest	Holmes	2004	1	KC	DEN	L,24-34	26	151	2	-2	3	32.9
18	LaDainian	Tomlinson	2003	15	SD	GB	L,21-38	20	51	11	144	2	31.5
19	Clinton	Portis	2002	13	DEN	SD	L,27-30	23	159	3	34	2	31.3
20	Ricky	Williams	2002	17	MIA	NE	L,24-27	31	185	2	7	2	31.2

The first thing that should jump out at you from this list is that talent trumps winning or losing. Some of the best RBs in the last decade appear multiple times on this list. The next thing I couldn’t help but notice is that Kansas City represents 30% (6 out of 20) of the list; which tells us two things we already knew…1) The Chiefs haven’t been a very good team over the last decade and 2) They’ve had excellent runners in spite of that.

Does this have any deep meaning for your fantasy draft preparation? No, it’s just a fun and quick use of our newest stat engine: The Game Log Dominator.

Next we’ll take a look at the best “Loser” WR performances.

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