We’ll continue our Fun With Defensive Statistics series with a look into just how scary defensive backs were in 2007. In the words of the great hunter Elmer Fudd, “Be vewy, vewy careful” before putting too much stock in the overall DB stats from 2007.

Top 5 2007 DBs (FBG scoring)

1. Leigh Bodden 184.50
2. Nate Clements 180.75
3. Marcus Trufant 179.75
4. Chris Harris 174.50
5. Roman Harper 172.50

• One player (Cedric Griffin) over 80 solo tackles with 82.
• Worst starter (#36) PPG (min 5 games) = 9.34

2006

• 8 defensive backs over 185 fpts
• 6 defensive backs over 80 solos (three with 89)
• 2007 #12 would have finished 21^st
• 2007 #36 would have finished 41^st

2005

• 5 defensive backs over 185 fpts (all 190+, three with 200+)
• 9 defensive backs over 80 solos (three over 90)
• 2007 #12 would have finished 19^th
• 2007 #36 would have finished 46^th

2004

• 5 defensive backs over 185 fpts (three with 200+)
• 4 defensive backs over 80 solos
• 2007 #12 would have finished 18^th
• 2007 #36 would have finished 49^th

2003

• 5 defensive backs over 185 fpts
• 5 defensive backs over 80 solos
• 2007 #12 would have finished T19th
• 2007 #36 would have finished 42^nd

Bottom line:

2007 was the least productive season in the last five years for defensive backs. This season’s #1 overall DB would have finished no better than 6^th in any of the previous five seasons. The overall tackle stats for defensive backs, the bread and butter of most IDP systems, were significantly down. The nominal worst DB1 starter in 2007 would barely have been a mid DB2 at any point over the past five seasons. And the “worst starter” in a start 3 DB league was easily the worst in five years.

Obviously, there are injury issues that skew this data some. But, while I expect to be in the minority come July, I think those that risk a pick on a potential “stud” safety next summer will find themselves rewarded handsomely. Considering that you’ll probably be able to get a player from that group at least one round later than in prior seasons, there’s even better value to be had.

Potential pitfalls:

The rise of the 3-4, Tampa-2 and hybrid nickel schemes could be depressing DB values, particularly the benchmark strong safeties. The influx of stud young linebacker talent may also be depressing safety values overall. Or it could simply be that 2005-2006 were DB years, not unlike the recent rise of the TE on the offensive side.

I think there are valid arguments against any of those potential issues, however, and, pending a glut of scheme/draft/free agency flies in the ointment, am planning on taking advantage of the negative DB bias created by the DB Massacre of 2007. The key, as always and with every position, will be to pick the right guys to rebound or break out.

Happy hunting.

The Chief defense is still not recognized as a top defense. They started off the season slow, losing two games to the Texans and Bears, while giving up 20 points in each contest. But, in the last four games, the Kansas City defense has yielded only 63 points while going 3-1.

What changed? The return of Jared Allen from his suspension is the biggest difference. In the week six win against the Bengals, Allen was everywhere. He had 2.5 sacks and kept constant pressure on Carson Palmer. The Chiefs held the Bengals to 20 points, compared to the 26.5 points a game average Carson Palmer and company brought into the game. In week four, the Chiefs held the Chargers to 16 points. In the two games since, the Chargers have scored 69 points against two good defenses (Broncos and Raiders).

YouTube: D-Ends of the KC Chiefs 

The Chiefs get the Oakland Raiders this Sunday. Expect Jared Allen and company to have a field day with Daunte Culpepper and company. For fantasy leagues, the Kansas City Chiefs defense should be a very good start. The following week, the Chiefs are on bye.

Every year, there are a number of second- and third-year defensive ends that break out as they grow into their position physically and mentally. Last year, saw Robert Geathers, Bobby McCray and Aaron Kampman explode onto the NFL scene with double digit sacks. Veteran IDPers know how important it is to find undervalued defensive players late in drafts and on the waiver wire and there looks to be a deeper list of candidates along the defensive line this season than any in recent memory. Don’t forget about Geathers and McCray, who will both have expanded roles this year, but keep a watchful eye on the following candidates to grab late in your draft or as early season free agents.

Stanley McClover (CAR) — McClover declared for the 2006 draft as a college junior and fell to the seventh round due to concerns about his physical maturity. McClover spent most of 2006 on the inactive lists, learning from Julius Peppers and Mike Rucker. After adding 15 pounds to his already considerable edge rushing skills, McClover’s solid offseason may have earned him the majority of snaps in the base defense this year. He may still rotate with Mike Rucker and Charles Johnson, but has big potential if he can get 40 or more snaps a game.

Ray Edwards (MIN) — The Vikings have been waiting for someone to stay healthy and productive long enough to generate a consistent pass rush. Kenechi Udeze hasn’t been able to do it, neither has Erasmus James. Edwards flashed at times last year and has been given the RDE job. His primary responsibility will be rushing the quarterback in Leslie Frazier’s aggressive scheme.

Elvis Dumervil (DEN) — I suggested avoiding Dumervil in IDP leagues in one of my weekly Reading the Defense subscriber columns last season, dismissing him as a situational pass rusher. Two things have changed since then. First, Dumervil gets the benefit of lining up a little wider in Jim Bates’ defensive scheme, which will give him a better angle to get to the quarterback and allow him to maximize his speed rush while minimizing his size disadvantage. Second, the loss of Ebenezer Ekuban will significantly increase Dumervil’s snaps. Dumervil showed his explosiveness in 2006 and may better those numbers in 2007. A must roster in big play leagues.

Darryl Tapp (SEA) — With the mediocre Grant Wistrom and Bryce Fisher finally on the outs, Tapp gets his opportunity in 2007. Another undersized pass rusher who took some extra time to mature, Tapp will start opposite free agent acquisition Patrick Kerney. If he can hold up as an every down player, Tapp also has big pass rush potential.

Justin Tuck (NYG) — Tuck’s value is dependent on Michael Strahan staying home. After getting lost in the depth the Giants had at end over the past two seasons, Tuck is in line for a starting job if Strahan elects not to play with Mathias Kiwanuka moved to SLB. Tuck is a very solid all-around defensive end and opposing offensive coordinators will be focusing on Osi Umenyiora. Tuck is very likely to go undrafted, but needs to be watched very closely if Strahan sits.

Mario Williams (HOU) — Williams is probably still valued by most casual IDP owners on name recognition. He should be firmly on your radar should he slip. Williams wasn’t nearly as bad as the media made him out to be last year when comparing him to Reggie Bush. Struggling through a toe problem, Williams held his own. With his explosiveness likely back in 2007, we may finally see the all-around talent that made him the first overall pick last year.

Jamaal Anderson (ATL) — Anderson is the only 2007 rookie on this list. Rookie defensive ends rarely have an every-down impact but those that do (Hali, Peppers, etc) often fit Anderson’s profile. Impact rookie defensive ends are usually mostly polished players. They have a solid frame to stand up at the point of attack. They have some understanding of how to use their hands and lower body in leverage. They have more than one pass rush move. You’ll find a one-trick pass rusher (Dwight Freeney) or situational stud (Mark Anderson) now and then, but the rookie DEs to target in IDP redrafts are those with the best all-around skill sets.

Ed Bouchette wrote an interesting article on LB James Harrison Wednesday, 8/29. It appears that James Harrison has ascended to be the unquestioned starter in Joey Porter’s old spot on the Pittsburgh defense - right outside linebacker.

Harrison is way below the IDP radar right now as he is a career backup to this point in his career, with a mere 17 fantasy points to his credit last year (163rd on the LB board at year’s end). He’s not even ranked on most fantasy LB boards right now.

However, in the article linked above we read:

Into the breach steps James Harrison, a former undrafted rookie who was cut by the Steelers, twice, then cut by Baltimore, then re-signed by the Steelers as an afterthought one week before training camp because Clark Haggans had a broken hand. Not only will he start at right outside linebacker, where Joey Porter and Greg Lloyd played before him, Harrison expects to surpass the productivity of either of them in one season.

‘My personal goal, I want to try to get at least 12 sacks,’ Harrison said yesterday.

If Harrison can approach Porter’s productivity this season, he could perhaps match Porter’s best fantasy season (2002 - 16 games, 61 tackles, 28 assists, 9 sacks, 2 fumble recoveries, 4 interceptions - 122 fantasy points, 14th overall LB that year) or at least land in the top 40 at his position, as Porter did during 2005 (40 tackles, 17 assists, 11 sacks, 4 forced fumbles, 1 fumble recovery, 2 interceptions and 4 passes defensed - 104 fantasy points for 37th LB at year’s end).

Right now you can probably land Harrison deep in your draft and stash him at #5 or #6 LB on your bench. If he lives up to his goals, you’ll have grabbed a productive fantasy LB for a song. If he flops or gets injured, you haven’t invested much anyway - this guy is a high upside, low risk pick at the moment.

Happy Drafting!

Asante Samuel gave in, as most franchise tagged players do. Despite holding out for most of the preseason and threatening an extended regular season absence, Samuel found it awfully hard to walk away from his teammates now that the games actually matter. And I’m sure the idea of $7.8mm in guaranteed money didn’t hurt either.

While I’m sure this has some significance to IDP leagues, it also has importance for traditional fantasy leagues, as well. The Patriots are being drafted, on average, 4th among Team Defenses and that’s despite Samuel’s absence. With Samuel, I can see the Patriots living up to that lofty draft ranking. Without him, I can’t see how they would’ve had a reliable enough pass defense to provide top-5 fantasy numbers.

Footballguys.com hard-hitting IDP coverage returns to The Audible this week with a in-depth look at every major breaking news story and heated positional battle on the defensive side of the ball. Host Sigmund Bloom, Eyes of the Guru author John Norton and Jene Bramel provide the analysis in a roundtable discussion on the only IDP podcast available on the internet.In the first of back-to-back episodes, the IDP crew discuss:

• The impact of Jeremiah Trotter’s release
• How the loss of Chike Okeafor will affect Arizona’s plans
• The emergence of Patrick Willis and Paul Posluszny
• Gibril Wilson’s move to FS
• Why Ahmad Brooks and Adalius Thomas require a second look
• What the Broncos might do without Ebenezer Ekuban
• Donovin Darius and the Oakland safety situation
• Whether Deon Grant might become the Chris Hope of 2007

If that’s not enough IDP goodness for you, be sure to check out the soon-to-be-released second episode, which will feature more discussion on the prospects of D.J. Williams, Matt Wilhelm and Stephen Cooper, Jon Beason, the probable decline of Andra Davis, which young DE have the best chance of making an impact in 2007 and much, much, much more.

Keep an eye on The Audible podcast page for the latest IDP Roundtable episodes, which will be released weekly as free content for the rest of the regular season. And if you’re thinking about taking the plunge and joining an IDP or a grizzled IDP vet of many years, make sure you’ve listened to our five part Ultimate Guide to IDP Leagues podcast extravaganza (Vol 89a-e) available on our podcast page.

In what many will see as a stunning move, the Philadelphia Eagles released Jeremiah Trotter today. While the timing of the move may be shocking, Trotter’s release won’t be that big of a surprise to those who have been following the team closely this offseason.The Eagles management had been softening its fan base for this move for months. Shortly after the regular season ended, the team leaked a myriad of its concerns about Trotter. The team publicly noted Trotter’s decline in play in 2006, referencing his age, weight and conditioning and troublesome knees. The Eagle defensive staff made little effort to hide a desire to limit Trotter’s snaps this season and installed second year player Omar Gaither as the primary nickel backer. They went so far as to hint that Trotter would play 60% of the snaps at best and hinted to beat writers that he should continue retiring due to his knee problems.

So why wait until the middle of training camp? The needed to be certain that veteran acquisition Takeo Spikes was healthy enough to play every down at WLB and that second year player Chris Gocong could successfully make the transition to SLB after missing all of last season after going on IR with a nagging neck injury as camp ended. With the reports that Gocong was ready and Spikes flying sideline-to-sideline without difficulty, the team no longer needed Trotter as insurance. With Omar Gaither already proving himself down the stretch in 2006, Trotter was expendable in the middle.

Today’s ESPN story from Len Pasquarelli suggests that Takeo Spikes will be moved to the middle, presumably to get Omar Gaither into the lineup at WLB. Unless he has an inside source, he’s likely incorrect. The Eagles intended to make Gaither a MLB after drafting him last year and, except when he was pressed into duty at WLB in 2006 because of the difficulties that Matt McCoy and Shawn Barber had there, Gaither has taken the bulk of his practice snaps at MLB with the second team. Gaither was slated to take MLB duties in the nickel packages and he’s the likely inheritor of the MLB position.

Dynasty leaguers should have already been all over Gaither, as we’ve been hyping him as the heir apparent since draft day in 2006. Redraft owners who were waiting to see what happened before making a move should get Gaither at the top of their free agent lists. In Jim Johnson’s aggressive scheme, an every down MLB will be IDP gold. Trotter produced 90 plus solo tackle seasons (102 in 2005) with a handful of sacks and coverage stats in this scheme. Gaither will do the same and is a must roster. Trotter will try to sign with another team. Given his blemishes and the difficulties of catching on with another established LB unit at this point, however, Trotter will be a long shot to have much IDP value.

It’s a shame that Trotter’s second stint with the team had to end as bitterly as his first. Trotter was a very good and, despite his four Pro Bowl appearances, often underrated MLB.

While it can be dangerous to read too much into the first “official” depth charts and the fluff pieces beat writers produce early in the preseason, there are always important nuggets to be gleaned from watching preseason games and carefully considering the comments of coaches and coordinators. Here’s a look at some of the changes in the IDP landscape thus far.Winners

• ILB Adalius Thomas — As was reported during OTAs, Thomas lined up all over the field last week but primarily at LILB. That’s often been the better tackling position in the Belichick scheme in recent years. Thomas looked a little uncomfortable inside at times but the combination of increased run support opportunity and pass rush skill may prove a lethal combination in the boxscore.
• DE Robert Geathers — After the team hinted that he would remain in a situational pass rushing role, Geathers played every down with the first team defense. Geathers has flashed decent run supporting skill in prior seasons and has 45 solo, 10 sack potential in the full time role.
• SS Deon Grant — Some felt Grant was in for a big bump in stats after leaving the limiting Jacksonville scheme for the greener Seahawk defense but the news that Grant would take on a more traditional strong safety role should make him an even safer bet for 2007.
• SS Chris Harris — Harris became a must roster after the Panthers acquired him from the Bears as camp began. Harris may not be a special NFL talent, but his IDP value goes from non-existent as a backup with Chicago to the starting SS in Carolina.
• WLB Landon Johnson — Another Bengal who looks to have a bigger role than initially expected, Johnson started with the first team last week. An underrated all-around backer, Johnson played well enough the first week to keep Ed Hartwell a backup MLB/WLB.
• OLB Antwan Peek — Peek isn’t a stud NFL talent, but Willie McGinest’s back surgery and Kamerion Wimbley’s beastly performance in the first preseason game could push Peek into every week starter status in big play leagues this year.

Losers

• OLB Chike Okeafor — Okeafor is likely out for the season after suffering a torn bicep muscle last week. Owners looking to use Okeafor as a DL and get OLB stat lines are going to have to find another option to exploit the “Bryan Thomas” classification loophole.
• MLB Ahmad Brooks — Caleb Miller replaced Brooks in nickel situations in the first preseason game despite earlier indications that Brooks would be an every down linebacker. There’s still time for Brooks to prove himself in coverage and the team has praised his effort in practice, but this isn’t a good start to 2007.
• FS Will Demps — The Giants began camp with Gibril Wilson at FS, James Butler at SS and Demps, who was one of the better producing free safeties in IDP leagues last year, on the second team. Demps is apparently rotating in with the first team again this week but the writing may be on the wall for him.
• MLB Brian Simmons — A nagging chronic knee problem and the surprisingly consistent play of last year’s starter Mark Simoneau has Simmons stuck on the second team. If Simmons can’t get on the field and impress soon, he’ll have a hard time securing any IDP value in 2007 without an injury to another starter.
• WLB Keith Ellison — While it may not be set in stone yet, Ellison sat in nickel situations during the first preseason game. Though it appears Ellison will shift with the offensive formation to remain a WLB on all base defensive snaps, sitting in the nickel will keep him from becoming more than a LB3.
• OLB Bryan Thomas — The NFL.com gamebook and Jets official depth chart has finally be updated to reflect Thomas’ correct position as an OLB. Those holding out hope that Thomas will remain a DL in your IDP league have hopefully already made other arrangements.

Other ongoing storylines:

Patrick Willis is still behind Derek Smith at RILB in the 49er base defense. Roman Harper looks fully recovered and may play linebacker in the nickel defense for New Orleans. Demorrio Williams has been cleared for contact nearly a month before he was expected to return and is running with the first team in Atlanta. Gibril Wilson has been tabbed for the big play FS role that Brian Dawkins played in Philadelphia. Eagle LB Takeo Spikes is turning heads in camp and may have recovered his sideline-to-sideline range.

Keep an eye on our free IDP centered message board at FootballGuys for breaking news and quick analysis on the defensive side of the ball. And watch for our new weekly IDP podcast on The Audible which will debut next week.

The Arizona Cardinal defense was dealt a serious blow after a MRI confirmed that DE/OLB Chike Okeafor suffered a torn left biceps last weekend. Okeafor is expected to undergo surgery and will likely miss the entire season while recovering and rehabbing his injury. Okeafor, a underrated veteran with the versatility to rush the passer and hold up against the run and pass in a two point stance, was expected to anchor the 3-4 defense the Cardinals had hoped to install in 2007. After his injury, the team’s ability to effectively run the 3-4 is in doubt.Early reports from team observers suggest that third year player Darryl Blackstock may get the first shot at replacing Okeafor. Blackstock, an undersized outside linebacker who was an impressive collegiate pass rusher, has not been impressive in two seasons and has yet to force his way into the lineup despite the team’s lack of depth and injury issues in recent years. He’s very unlikely to have an every down impact. Another inconsistent DE/OLB hybrid, Calvin Pace, will also see time in the 3-4 package. Like Blackstock, however, Pace will not provide what Okeafor added to the defense.

Other than scrapping the 3-4 looks completely, an option that hasn’t been mentioned in the local media is to shift Karlos Dansby outside. Dansby is currently slated to play inside with Gerald Hayes but would likely be a better all-around fit outside than either Blackstock or Pace. Dansby has shown good pass rush skill (17 sacks in 44 career games) and is the best cover backer on the Cardinal roster. Shifting Dansby outside would also get promising rookie Buster Davis into the lineup at ILB and allow Arizona to get its best linebackers on the field.

The FBG IDP team will be following this situation closely over the next couple of weeks. Should the team return to a predominantly 4-3 look or shift Dansby outside, the implications for many of its defenders in the boxscores will change significantly. Stay tuned to our offseason podcasts and IDP message board for the latest information on this and every other breaking story on the defensive side of the ball.

In an earlier blog post, I briefly touched on the trend toward interchangeable safeties taking hold in the NFL. With the increase in multiple wide receiver sets and athletic, pass-catching tight ends, defensive coordinators are scrambling to find safeties with two-way skills. The traditional, in-the-box safety is becoming a rarer find with each passing season. Big name safeties that struggle in coverage are finding themselves inactive or relegated to special teams duty on game days, as Adam Archuleta, Michael Lewis and Michael Boulware learned in 2006.

The New York Giants may make Gibril Wilson next on the list. Wilson, a fifth round pick in 2004, exploded onto the NFL landscape early in his rookie year after Shaun Williams suffered a season ending knee injury. Wilson played big in run support and had a knack for the big play, producing three sacks and three interceptions in parts of eight games as a rookie. Over the past three seasons, however, opposing teams have been able to take advantage of Wilson’s inconsistent play in coverage and there were rumblings this offseason that the Giant front office was souring on Wilson as a long term option at safety. Though they tendered Wilson with a second round compensation in RFA this year, there has been no mention of signing him to a long term extension.

So it wasn’t too shocking this weekend when the Giants opened camp with James Butler as the first team strong safety. Butler, a college free agent signee from 2005 who went undrafted despite an impressive collegiate resume, was impressive as a rookie but fell behind after a kidney problem cost him much of the 2006 offseason. The more interesting development is that Wilson was moved to FS, with last year’s starter Will Demps demoted to the second team.

There are a number of ways to look at this from Wilson’s perspective. First, it may be that this is the beginning of the end. Demps struggled early in 2006 as he got his legs back after a 2005 ACL injury, but had a very impressive second half in the boxscores. It wouldn’t be surprising to see Demps back in the starting lineup if he shows he can be consistently capable in run support and coverage. Or it may be that new defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo sees Butler and Wilson as his Michael Lewis and Brian Dawkins. Wilson’s big play history parallels that of Dawkins in many ways and the move may be a sign that Wilson may have a similar key role in 2007.

For now, Wilson’s IDP owners should keep a close eye on the situation and hope that Wilson doesn’t follow in the footsteps of his 2006 NFC East counterparts, Archuleta and Lewis.

There are several teams that have questions regarding their defensive starters. If you are looking for some potential sleepers, here are a couple of important situations that IDP (Individual Defensive Players) owners should keep an eye on:

1. Cincinnati Bengals: Odell Thurman is eligible for reinstatement. What does this mean for the Bengals? They appear committed to Ahmad Brooks at middle linebacker. Could Thurman play on the weak side? He has the speed and athleticism to play there, but will he really get a chance to compete? This is a situation worth watching closely, because Thurman has the ability to be a top 10 LB in IDP leagues, and he is highly unlikely to be drafted anywhere near the top 10 LBs. He is a classic risk/reward sleeper candidate, and may be worth using a late round pick on.

2. Carolina Panthers: Dan Morgan is a huge question mark this season. He has a long history of concussions and his ability to play this season is unknown. The Panthers drafted Jon Beason and it would appear he would be the starter in the middle should Morgan not play. If Morgan manages to play, Beason seems to be the favorite to start on the weak side. Either way, Beason should have some fantasy value. But if Morgan plays, he could be a solid LB for IDP players, although it may not be for long based on his history of injuries. He might make for a nice late round pick, because when he manages to play, he usually puts up solid fantasy numbers. It’s probably not advisable to risk much on him, but a selection in the last round or two may be worth the chance.

Agree with my sleeper picks? Have your own to share? Feel free to join in the discussion on the IDP Forum on our message boards.

It’s not often that an early July veteran free agent acquisition prompts questions about whether a somewhat unknown defensive wrinkle is about to become the next hot trend in the NFL. But that’s exactly what has happened after the Oakland Raiders signed former Jacksonville SS Donovin Darius to a contract late last week. Early reports are suggesting that Raider defensive coordinator Rob Ryan will use Darius in a defensive formation known as the “Big Nickel” in which a LB is benched in favor of a third safety. On the heels of offseason reports that Dallas SS Roy Williams and San Francisco SS Michael Lewis will play linebacker on some passing downs this season, veteran IDP minds on the FootballGuys IDP message board are wondering if the Big Nickel is about to follow the Tampa-2 and the Phillips 3-4 as the next big thing in the NFL.

What exactly is the Big Nickel? As the word nickel implies, the defense lines up with two linebackers and five defensive backs. Since the fifth defensive back is a “bigger” safety rather than a cornerback, though, the alignment is most often referred to as the “Big” Nickel. The most common playbook variation of this defense leaves two linebackers in the box aligned much like the two ILBs in a 3-4 front. The three safeties have variable responsibilities. One usually comes down into the box over the TE and has coverage responsibility for the TE or is tasked with aiding in run support. Another safety has intermediate zone and crossing route responsibility, while the third safety is usually left in deep coverage. With the right personnel, the responsibilities of each safety can often be disguised until just before the snap.

The Big Nickel isn’t a new wrinkle. Teams over the past two decades have used this alignment for any number of reasons on any down and distance. Fritz Shurmur, one of the most innovative defensive minds ever, first used the alignment as the defensive coordinator of the St. Louis Rams to give the dominating San Francisco 49er offense a different look in 1990. It worked to great success and was the catalyst to a Ram upset of Joe Montana and the Niners West Coast Offense. Shurmur resorted to it again as a base defense in Arizona a couple of seasons later after losing a few of his linebackers to injury.

While the Big Nickel faded to the back of defensive playbooks in the mid-1990s after teams took advantage of the smaller defensive backs with superior rush attacks, the “safety playing linebacker” is again gaining favor in recent seasons. The Denver Broncos, among other teams, have used the Big Nickel against stud pass catching TEs like Tony Gonzalez and Antonio Gates. Bill Belichick used it frequently in the early 1990s and famously confused Drew Bledsoe to distraction in one Pats-Bills matchup. Gregg Williams used it while a head coach in Buffalo and tried to work it in with Adam Archuleta in Washington last year. The Arizona Cardinals used a variation of the Big Nickel as part of an unusual 3-3-5 look last year in which Adrian Wilson lined up anywhere and everywhere on passing downs. Others, including Brian Dawkins and Demorrio Williams were noted to have safety-linebacker responsibility at times. And Rob Ryan has a long history with the Big Nickel, having used it as a base defense often over the past two seasons in response to the poor linebacker depth the Raiders have had during that period.

The Big Nickel will be used often again this year. The Raiders, with three solid options at safety in Darius, Michael Huff and Stuart Schweigert, now seem primed to use the Big Nickel as a base defense once again given a continued lack of NFL ready talent at linebacker behind Kirk Morrison and Thomas Howard. Both the Niners and the Cowboys may use the variation on passing downs only.

With the continuing influx of big slot WR and athletic pass catching TEs into the league, defensive coordinators are clearly looking for ways to keep up. The use of a number of high first round draft picks used on safeties with two way run-cover skill sets is just one part of a broader defensive trend. A few media types touched on it last season, but expect to hear more about the Big Nickel and the growing importance of safety play during the coming NFL season. If the Big Nickel continues to gain converts among league defensive coordinators, you may soon see the term “‘tweener” take on a whole new meaning in league scouting circles.

The Indianapolis Colts made DE Dwight Freeney the highest paid defensive player in NFL history last week, signing him to a six-year, $72 million dollar contract that included a $30 million dollar signing bonus. After a year in which Freeney managed only 5.5 sacks and again provided very little in run support on a team that desperately needed his contributions, Colt homers and football fans alike must be asking themselves: Can Freeney possibly be deserving of such a lucrative deal?It may not be the most popular answer coming off a such a relatively poor season, but the answer has to be yes. Bill Polian, who has let a number of other solid defensive talents walk in free agency over the past five seasons, knows how valuable Freeney is to the Colt defense and quickly voiced his opinion after the end of the 2006 season. “We’re going to keep Dwight Freeney, period,” said Polian. “That’s a given.”

Why is Freeney so valuable? The Colts, under head coach Tony Dungy, run more Tampa-2 coverage than any team in the league other than the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, where Tampa-2 co-architect Monte Kiffin remains as defensive coordinator. Because every linebacker and defensive back is critical to the success of the coverage scheme, Tampa-2 teams hardly ever blitz. The pass rush must come from the front four. And since the Colts don’t spend high draft picks or big free agent dollars on cover corners, not having a pass rush will allow opposing quarterbacks to pick the zone coverage apart. Colt fans who watched their team destroy the Cincinnati Bengals on Monday Night Football in 2006 should know that better than anyone. The Bengals played Cover-2 all night long, got no pass rush whatsoever and were summarily destroyed by the Colt offense.

There’s an argument to be made that the league has figured Freeney out, that offensive tackles have adjusted to his spin moves and the 5.5 sacks are a sign of what’s to come in future seasons. The other side of that argument is equally compelling. Freeney still showed himself capable of taking over a game last year, with three sacks against Cincinnati and two against Kansas City in the playoffs, and still commanded double teams on nearly every play. It is also notable that Freeney’s stat lines improved midway through the 2006 season after the acquisition of Anthony McFarland and an injury to a muscle in the back of his leg quieted. It’s just as reasonable to expect Freeney to return to his double digit sack form as not.

Many of Freeney’s detractors also bemoan his total lack of run support. Simply put, though, that’s a secondary concern for the Colt defensive unit. The downside of Freeney’s below average run support is significantly outweighed by the absolute necessity of having his pass rush capability on the open end. It would certainly be nice to have the best of all worlds, but those players are few and very far between. Teams recognize their value and will not give them up. Even second tier all-around defensive ends like Justin Smith and Charles Grant are routinely franchised by their current teams.

While those points make a clear argument that Freeney was a must re-sign for the Colts, it still doesn’t answer the question about whether Freeney is deserving of highest paid defensive player status. The simple answer to that question is that it doesn’t matter. The question is very likely to be rendered meaningless very soon. The salary cap is going up again next offseason and defensive ends like Julius Peppers, Jared Allen and the aforementioned Justin Smith are going to get paid handsomely. By this time next year, Freeney will no longer be the highest paid defender. In fact, there’s a very good chance that, should he return to his pre-2006 form, he’ll be a nice bargain for the Colts as he finishes out the prime of his career.

Today on The Audible, Cecil Lammey and Sigmund Bloom discuss the Denver Broncos with Special Guest Renaud Notaro, Broncos sideline reporter from AM 950 The Fan in Denver. Topics include the condition of Rod Smith’s hip, the 2007 outlook for WR Brandon Marshall, Cecil Sapp as the #2 RB, Mike Bell’s job in jeopardy, how D.J. Williams is adjusting to the MLB spot, the latest on Tony Scheffler’s foot, and more!

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Long time IDP (Individual Defensive Player) owners know how important an understanding of the nuances of defensive schemes can be to reliably projecting a defender’s fantasy value. Still, you’d be surprised at how often something so simple is overlooked. While standing at the magazine rack last week examining the rankings of a few other IDP notables in the industry, one player consistently caught my attention. Nearly every cheatsheet had Tampa Bay linebacker Cato June as a top ten linebacker for 2007.What’s the big deal, you ask? After all, June was a top ten linebacker by FBG standard scoring in 2006 and the Buccaneers run the same defensive scheme as June played in Indianapolis last year. The answer becomes clearly evident after examining June’s probable usage this year and past production as a Colt.

June played on the right side of the Colt defense last year, the side more often across from the weak side of the offensive formation, and was able to use his speed to pursue ball-carriers spilled back toward him rather than being forced to contend with blockers on most plays. In Tampa Bay, with Derrick Brooks entrenched as the pursuing WLB, June will move to the left side of the defense. The results will be disastrous to his fantasy production.

While June, a former college safety, excels in short and intermediate zone coverage, he has always struggled to elude blockers. Fans of ESPNs NFL Matchup show will recall analyst Ron Jaworski highlighting June’s inability to get off the blocks of Jacksonville WR Reggie Williams. June will face bigger and better blockers than Williams on the strong side in Tampa and will be regularly blocked at the point of attack, severely limiting his tackle production.

June has also been an inconsistent tackler during his career as a Colt, which kept him from reaching the lofty solo tackle stats of his predecessors in the favorable WLB position of Tony Dungy’s Tampa-2 scheme. Consider the tackle stats of the Colt ROLBs since 2002:

• 2002 Mike Peterson 103 solo tackles
• 2003 David Thornton 108 solo tackles
• 2004 Cato June 79 solo tackles
• 2005 Cato June 84 solo tackles (projected to 16 games)
• 2006 Cato June 96 solo tackles

Before you get too excited over the increase in production from 2004-05 to 2006, note that the Colts faced 519 rush attempts in 2006 (2nd most in the NFL) versus only 398 and 440 in 2004 and 2005, respectively. June’s relatively poor numbers in comparison to his predecessors isn’t due solely to improved MLB play from Gary Brackett either. Two other Tampa-2 WLB studs, Derrick Brooks and Lance Briggs, haven’t had trouble topping 100 solo tackles alongside steady tackling MLBs Shelton Quarles and Brian Urlacher. Even if June finds a way to elude a few more blockers this year, his questionable tackling will continue to hold his weekly production in check.

Cato June isn’t the only IDP likely to see a major change (positive or negative) to his box score production this year. There are a number of such cases every year. Taking a deeper look into the details of defensive scheme and responsibility will help you consistently identify the outliers. And, if the magazine racks this year are any indication, your ability to identify the outliers will have you outdrafting a good number of industry experts along the way.