Now that the NFL Draft is in the books, we are standing on the cusp of the NFL preseason. During the coming weeks, rookie mini-camps will grind into gear and hard-core fantasy owners will start the process of evaluating this year’s draft picks potential for “instant impact” during 2008. In redraft fantasy football leagues, one key requirement for the kind of production that fantasy owners crave is opportunity. A player like TE Martellus Bennett (a 2nd-round selection by Dallas) may have all the talent in the world, but his chances for a meaningful 2008 season in fantasy terms are very slight due to being buried on the depth chart behind All-Pro TE Jason Witten.

The below is a preliminary list of the top rookie prospects for redraft fantasy leagues, given their new NFL homes.

Rookie Running Backs

The running back position is where the fantasy gems among the rookies are most likely to be found. While it is true that for every Adrian Peterson (Minnesota) or Joseph Addai one can point at, there are also players like J.J. Arrington or Chris Perry who serve as a counter-examples, it is also true that running backs tend to make the quickest transition to playing at the NFL level. A fantasy owner is most likely to find an “instant impact” player among the rookie running backs in any given calendar year.

Jonathan Stewart is probably the best bet at running back to generate fantasy impact during his rookie season. He is the sort of running back that the Panthers’ coaching staff prefers, and they have been retooling their offensive line for a power running attack - Stewart fits the mold that Carolina is built to utilize. DeAngelo Williams simply isn’t the player the coaching staff wants to rely on as their #1 RB - he is better suited to a change-of-pace, 3rd-down role in their scheme. Stewart figures to have plenty of touches on the ball with the Panthers this year.

Darren McFadden is a boom-or-bust type prospect. Yes, he has the type of speed and top gear that make him a threat to go to the house on every down, and he projects to be the starter with the Raiders (assuming his contract negotiations go well and he avoids a JaMarcus Russell-type holdout scenario). However, there is a crowded RB stable in Oakland, with Justin Fargas coming off a 1000+ yard season - if McFadden struggles with the pro game, he may not get many chances to redeem himself.

Kevin Smith lands with the Lions, who really like his game and seem to be indicating that the starting job is his to lose during 2008. We’ll see if their actions match their draft-day rhetoric - but Tatum Bell hasn’t looked like the answer since he arrived in Detroit, and as of today, he is the only other back of note on the team. If Smith impresses in training camp it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him starting for the Lions in September.

Matt Forte comes into a by-committee backfield situation, with both Cedric Benson and Adrian Peterson grinding out 3.4 yards per carry last season. Peterson was far more productive than Benson in the passing game (51/420/0 receiving vs. 17/123/0) and actually led the team in total yardage and fantasy points at the RB position last year. Benson has greatly underperformed his draft slot (1st round -4th pick in 2005) and may find himself riding the pine if Forte proves that he outperform Benson during training camp.

Rashard Mendenhall is likely to be Willie Parker’s primary backup for this year, but given Parker’s difficulty at the goal-line last year (321/1316/2 rushing), Mendenhall could find a role as the Steelers’ goal-line back (Najeh Davenport gained 107/499/5 rushing and 18/184/2 as the Steelers’ big back/change of pace back last year). If Mendenhall seals the #2 job with Pittsburgh, he could have value in basic scoring leagues (any league where TD production is the primary scoring criteria).

Felix Jones joins fellow rookie Tashard Choice as the new backups to Marion Barber III. Barber looks set to carry the majority of the load for Dallas, but Jones’ outside speed will give him a shot to earn playing time as the 3rd down back/passing down back - depending on how quickly Jones picks up the Cowboys’ offense and learns to pick up the blitz.

Rookie Wide Receivers

Second to the running backs, rookie WRs occasionally step into the NFL and make fantasy owners’ seasons. The most obvious example of this phenomenon would be Randy Moss’s first incredible season (69/1313/17) with Minnesota (he was the #1 fantasy WR as a rookie) - Larry Fitzgerald’s 58/780/8 as a rookie was also pretty outstanding for a rookie WR (30th best fantasy WR during 2004). However, it is far more often the case that rookie WRs bust (especially in their first season of NFL action). The last time I fell hard for a rookie WR’s potential, I ended up having Rashaun Woods among my preseason top 36 fantasy prospects - only to watch him fail miserably at the NFL level. Now-a-days, it is my rule of thumb that exactly zero rookie WRs land among my top 40 or so fantasy prospects until they have proven their skills extensively in training camp and preseason games - and even then I tend to be conservative about drafting them early - I would urge fantasy owners to be very leery of rookie wideouts.

James Hardy appears to have landed in the best situation among the draftees, with a legitimate shot at capturing the #2 wide receiver position on the Buffalo Bills. Other than Lee Evans, the Bills’ WRs generated 1 receiving TD last year (Josh Reed was #2 in yardage with 51/578/0) - not exactly what the coaching staff was looking for, to say the least. However, don’t go overboard with your enthusiasm for Hardy - the Bills were 30th in the NFL when it came to passing offense, so his ceiling as the #2 WR (if he gets that far) is relatively low compared to a player on a franchise like New England.

DeSean Jackson figures to be in the mix in Philadelphia, but the team spreads the ball around quite a bit - the 2nd best receiver on the Eagles over the past two years failed to get over 800 yards receiving or score more than 5 times, and the players at WR3 and below are non-factors in fantasy terms.

Devin Thomas may challenge for playing time in Washington, but with a developing young QB in Jason Campbell and an entrenched #1 WR in Santana Moss combined with a high-scoring TE hogging red-zone chances (Chris Cooley has 6 or more TDs in each of his first 4 seasons) - Thomas will have significant obstacles to overcome before he starts putting up the kind of statistics that make fantasy owners excited.

Malcolm Kelly - see Devin Thomas above.

Jerome Simpson landed with Cincinnati while the Bengals are searching for a replacement WR3 - if he can wow the coaching staff in training camp and sew up the WR3 spot, he could put up decent numbers now and then during 2008.

Rookie Quarterbacks

Excepting Peyton Manning , the exception who proves the rule, no rookie QB has been a fantasy standout during recent memory - even Dan Marino took one season to get up to speed before exploding during his second campaign way back in 1984. Unless you are convinced that Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco or any of the other draftees this year are of the caliber of a Peyton Manning or a Dan Marino, you should probably pass on them during your redraft league’s annual draft.

Matt Ryan will likely get his chance to start during 2008, perhaps early on in the season if Chris Redman falters during training camp. Ryan is sure to suffer typical rookie growing pains once he does get into the lineup, so he probably won’t have any games worth mentioning until very late in the season, if then.

Joe Flacco may be the heir apparent in Baltimore, but he’s currently buried behind Kyle Boller and Troy Smith (last year’s draft pick at the position). The Ravens got burned the last time they rushed a QB into the starting lineup (witness Boller’s checkered career with Baltimore) - they aren’t likely to make the same mistake with Flacco. He’ll likely carry the clipboard after preseason, with occasional spot duty in blow out wins or losses.

Rookie Tight Ends

Rookie tight ends are very seldom worth drafting - Tony Gonzalez scored 2 TDs in his rookie campaign (33/368/2), as did Antonio Gates (24/389/2), as did the ultra-hyped rookie TE of 2007, Greg Olsen (39/391/2). The three above examples are actually best-case scenarios for the vast majority of rookie TEs - the position is very demanding at the pro level and it simply takes more than 1 training camp and regular season to absorb all the duties that are asked of a pro TE. Among the 2008 draftees, expect 300+ and 1-2 TDs to be a ceiling when you are crafting your projections.

New Seahawk John Carlson will battle Jeb Putzier for playing time during 2008, and could end up starting for Seattle sooner rather than later. He is the TE prospect who landed in the best situation (such as it is) from the fantasy perspective.

Dustin Keller arrives to the Jets via a first round pick, but he’ll have to earn his way into the starting lineup - solid-but-unspectacular Chris Baker has scored 4 TDs in 2 of the past 4 seasons, and posted 41/409/3 last year. Keller will have the opportunity to learn the position from Baker and another veteran TE, Bubba Franks, this season. Keller is a guy to watch as the year progresses - he might be worth a flyer in free agency late in the season (just before fantasy playoffs) if he manages to earn playing time during 2008.

The NFL Draft is an exciting time of year for football junkies, but it is just the beginning of a long process. Don’t let your draft weekend enthusiasm drown out your better judgement as you prepare your preliminary draft lists for 2008. We have yet to get an inkling who among the draftees will fulfill their promise, which ones will outperform expectations - and how many will go bust in their first season as a pro football players.

Today the Bengals finally cut Chris Henry, after his fifth arrest since joining the team - once again, this latest incident is reputed to be related to assault and battery while under the influence of intoxicating substances of one sort or another.

Mike Frazier, Henry’s agent, continued with the same old platitudes about “helping” Henry -

“I just want to say that we’re sorry this all happened, and we will continue to try to work to help Chris,”

- but, quite honestly, there isn’t a cure for the arrogant ignorance displayed by this ex-Bengal. He has, all-too-obviously, fallen into folly due to the special-rules-for-special-athletes paradigm that certain star athletes believe apply to them (Michael Vick is another infamous example of the special-rules disease, which is in some cases terminal to NFL careers).

There is no other way to account for a person who, like Henry, repeatedly flouts the rule of law and civil authority without regard to the consequences for their multi-million dollar career. He truly is, in the words of the latest judge to preside over this most recent case involving Henry, “a one-man crime wave”.

Anyone who is willing to toss away the culmination of their life’s work for the thrill of beating up on an 18-year old is a dysfunctional loser who doesn’t deserve yet another chance in the NFL.

Fantasy owners, this is why character counts in the NFL. When you are sorting out your draft lists later on this year, remember to weight your lists to reflect who is a high-character player and who is a scumbag. When two players have roughly equal prospects for the upcoming season, the smart pick is to add the guy who isn’t a thug to your roster - it may just save you from wasting a draft pick on an idiot like Chris Henry.

Baltimore Ravens

LB Terrell Suggs

Suggs has five years in the league yet won’t turn 26 until October. Although his sack totals were down this year (just 5), he’s a proven play-maker who is many years younger than a typical marquee free agent. The Ravens can ill afford to let him leave after losing Adalius Thomas last offseason.

xxxxx

Cincinnati Bengals

DE Justin Smith

Last season the Bengals opted to tag DE Justin Smith despite questions about whether he was an elite defensive end. The logic was that he was a hard worker, and one of the few plus defenders on a defense that needed lots of improvement. Fast forward to this offseason and reports are again surfacing that Smith may get tagged; which, if true, begs the question: WHY? Smith notched only 2 sacks last year and has never had more than the 8.5 of his rookie season. The Bengals defense was awful last year and is more than one player away. In addition, the team has other major issues at play including: T.J. Houshmandzadeh wants a raise, Chad Johnson isn’t necessarily happy, and the team has other key free agents (Williams, Andrews, Johnson).

Cleveland Browns

The Browns resurgent 2007 brings with it challenges in free agency. RB Jamal Lewis gambled on a one-year deal last year and delivered a monster season which should bring him a market rate, multi-year deal. While Lewis is important to the Browns, his age and career workload likely precludes them from tagging him. The other major free agent is QB Derek Anderson; but Anderson is a restricted free agent so Cleveland has the right to match any offer. As a result, don’t look for the Browns to use either designation.

Pittsburgh Steelers

OG Alan Faneca is the best free agent guard on the market, and has been an important cog in the Steelers offensive machine for years. Yet, I’m not listing him as a potential tag candidate because the Steelers seem ready to let him leave via free agency.

The Giants are heading to the Super Bowl, earning a rematch against the undefeated Patriots. No matter where your personal allegiances lie, you have to give the Giants credit for a hard earned berth. They won three straight road games against three division champs. They beat the 1st and 2nd seeds, avenging three of their in-season losses in the process. Along the way, the Giants have won an NFL record 10 straight road games.

No one, even the most ardent Giants fan, would argue the Patriots are a heavy favorite. Vegas puts the game a -11 and, if history is any indication, the line tends to grow in the favorite’s direction as the game approaches.

Now that the matchup is set, the discussion has turned to just how big of an upset would it be if the Giants beat the Patriots in two weeks?

Before we attempt to answer that question, we need to recognize that it’s subjective. Not everyone agrees about the best team in history, the best QB in history or the best RB in history…so we can’t expect everyone to agree about the greatest Super Bowl upset in league history, either. That said, here are my thoughts on the matter:

The Point Spread Approach

Personally, I don’t think point spreads are the best arbiter of this kind of discussion; but a lot of people do put faith in the betting line. To that end, the Giants are currently 11-point underdogs. If the spread holds at 11 points, it wouldn’t come close to matching the New York Jets in Super Bowl III. Joe Namath’s team were 17-point underdogs to the Baltimore Colts. More recently, the New England Patriots were 14-point underdogs against the St. Louis Rams in Super Bowl XXXVI and won outright. In fact, the Giants would be tied for 4th place in SB history, according to point spread:

• Super Bowl III: New York Jets (+18) over Baltimore Colts
• Super Bowl XXXVI: New England Patriots (+14) over St. Louis Rams
• Super Bowl IV: Kansas City Chiefs (+12) over Minnesota Vikings
• Super Bowl XXXII: Denver Broncos (+11) over Green Bay Packers
• Super Bowl XLII???: New York Giants (+11) over New England Patriots
  

The Margin of Victory Approach

Margin of victory is an valuable tool in comparing teams. In a league where the average margin of victory is slightly more than a field goal, margin of victory helps illustrate the best teams; teams that can win handily; whether that be by virtue of an explosive offense or a stifling defense. As you might imagine, teams with a high margin of victory traditionally beat opponents with lower margins of victory; that’s basic math.

Key Talking Points:

• The 2007 New England Patriots set an NFL record for margin of victory (19.7 PPG)
• The 2007 New York Giants margin of victory (1.4 PPG) is the 3rd lowest in Super Bowl history
• 2/3rds of Super Bowl winners have had a better regular season margin of victory than their opponent
• 1/3rd (14 of 41) Super Bowl winners have had a smaller margin of victory than their opponent

Here is a list of the Super Bowl champions that had smaller margins of victory than their opponents:

As you can see, the Jets victory of the Colts stands atop this list, while (surprise, surprise), the Patriots victory over the Rams is a close second.

Now consider the implied differential if New York beat New England:

• New England Margin of Victory = 19.7 PPG
• New York Margin of Victory = 1.4 PPG
• Implied Differential = (18.3)
  

This would be the most surprising SB victory, BY MORE THAN A FACTOR OF 2X THE PREVIOUS RECORD.

The Winning Percentage Approach

A lot has been made about how we need to “throw the records out” once the playoffs begin. Yet, history shows us that’s really not logical. When push comes to shove, the team with the better regular season record USUALLY wins the Super Bowl; it’s that simple.

Key Talking Points:

• The New England Patriots, the first 16-0 team in history, obviously had a 1.000 winning percentage
• The New York Giants (10-6), had a 0.625 winning percentage
• 10 of 41 (24.3%) Super Bowl champs had a worse winning percentage than their opponent

Here is a list of Super Bowl champs that had worse winning percentages than their opponents:

Interestingly, the Packers’ victory over the Raiders in Super Bowl II tops this list [they ranked 3rd based on margin of victory differential], and those were followed by New England over the Rams [2nd in our margin analysis] and Namath’s Jets over the Colts [1st place in the margin analysis].

Now, consider what a Giants victory would imply:

• New England Patriots (16-0) = 1.000% winning percentage
• New York Giants (10-6) = 62.5% winning percentage
• Implied Differential = (-37.5%)
  

Thinking of this another way, no SB champ in HISTORY has beaten an opponent with more than 3.5 more wins in the regular season, yet were the Giants to win they would have done so finishing SIX GAMES BEHIND the Patriots in the standings.

CONCLUSION

It’s difficult if not impossible to compare eras. In this case, the earliest Super Bowls pitted two entirely different leagues against one another, and football historians would say, as a result, their regular season accomplishments weren’t apples to apples. Therefore, some will always contend that Joe Namath’s New York Jets victory of the Baltimore Colts in Super Bowl III was the greatest upset in professional football history. The most contemporary upset would be the Patriots victory over the Rams [which ironically started the Patriots dynastic run we’re now dissecting]. By any objective measure, a Giants victory against the Patriots this year would be right up there with those two upsets. To my mind, based on the differential in their respective finishes this season, it WOULD be THE biggest upset in Super Bowl history. But even if you disagree, it’s hard to argue it wouldn’t be AMONG the biggest upsets.

The Ol’ Gunslinger — Brett Favre — wants to return for an 18th season…

“For the first time in three years, I haven’t thought this could be my last game,” Favre told the Biloxi Sun-Herald newspaper. “I would like to continue longer.”

My how quickly things can change in the NFL. A year ago at this time, most people assumed Brett Favre would either retire or limp back for one more season in order to break Dan Marino’s all-time records before exiting unceremoniously out the door. Now, after an MVP-like season that saw the Packers win 13 games (and counting), Favre seems ready to not only return in 2008, but to make another run at contention.

Want to know how things will get interesting? Let’s see if the Packers can win the Super Bowl this year. IF they were to win the SB, I could see Favre calling it a career; but otherwise, fantasy owners and NFL fans can expect him back slinging passes around with aplomb in 2008.

Randy Moss just completed an insane 23-TD season; breaking Jerry Rice’s single-season mark in the process. As it stands, Moss also broke Rice’s record for most fantasy points by a WR in a season:

As you can see, Rice’s 22-TD season wasn’t even the record holder (it ranked 8th prior to Moss’ 2007 campaign); but rather it was Rice’s 1995 season (122 catches for 1,849 yards and 15 TDs) that was the former standard bearer. Moss’ 2007 numbers give him a 2.9 point edge using standard fantasy scoring.

While this is AMONG the best receiving seasons in football history, it’s really not the best FANTASY season. Remember, the year Rice caught 22 TD receptions, he only played 12 games due to the strike. Imagine what his numbers might have looked like over a full 16-game season.

Here is a list of the best fantasy seasons on a POINTS PER GAME basis (minimum: 12 games played)

Three things to chew on from this list:

1. Jerry Rice’s 22-TD season season is now back in its rightful place as the best ever
2. Lance Alworth’s brilliance comes to the forefront (he has three of the top 7 seasons all time in FPPG)
3. Moss’ 2007 season stands 3rd in PPG; and is indeed AMONG the best ever

Credit to our forum member pizzatyme for throwing out this little nugget today:

The Colts became the fourth team to win more games in a season following their Super Bowl victory. The other three all repeated as Super Bowl Champs:

• 1974 & 1975 Pittsburgh Steelers
• 1988 & 1989 San Francisco 49ers
• 1997 & 1998 Denver Broncos

Now for as interesting a statistical nugget as that may be, credit to forum member redman who quickly threw out the obvious monkey wrench (aka the Patriots):

In each of the three other instances, the repeating SB champ had either the best record in their conference, or the best in the league. The Colts obviously don’t this year, which is no surprise given how much of an outlier the Pats’ season has been anyway.

Big-time congratulations to Brett Favre who became the NFL’s all-time leader in passing yards; and did so on a day when his team a) won the game and b) wrapped up a first round bye in this year’s playoffs.

A lot of people are stunned at the Packers 12-2 record but perhaps they should be even more surprised with the way Favre has returned to an MVP-like form after several years of declining productivity.

Here are a few of the records Brett Favre now possesses:

• 1st all-time passing attempts
• 1st all-time pass completions
• 1st all-time passing yards
• 1st all-time passing TDs
• 1st all-time interceptions thrown
• 1st all-time in wins
• 1st all-time NFL MVP awards
• 1st all-time in consecutive games played for a QB

Over the last few weeks, three NFL running backs have joined the 10,000-yards rushing club.

• LaDainian Tomlinson: 10,048 yards rushing (in Week 12)
• Warrick Dunn: 10,044 yards rushing (in Week 12)
• Fred Taylor: 10,221 yards rushing (in Week 10)

Congratulations are in order as they become  just the 20th, 21st and 22nd players in  NFL history to rush for at least 10,000 yards.

One of the great things about the NFL is the passion of the fans. We ALL think we’re, at times, smarter than the coaches and personnel executives who manager our teams. We all like to 2nd guess specific draft choices, certain plays on game day. While intellectually we may know that we’re NOT as good as the people who run our teams, the emotional drain of an NFL season deludes us into thinking otherwise.

One of the CLASSIC debates revolves around whether it’s worth spending huge $$$$ on a rookie quarterback. Judging from NFL draft history, the majority of NFL executives think it’s a worthwhile strategy. On the other hand, it seems a majority of fans would rather “find value” at the QB position and not commit so much money to an unproven signal caller who could set their team back for years if he busts.

This is a debate that’s not likely to resolve itself anytime soon. But 10 weeks into this season, it’s looking like 2007 will go down as a year when the FANS perspective gained some ground empirically.

Consider:

In the last 10 years, a quarterback was drafted 1st overall EIGHT (80%!) times:

• 1998 — Peyton Manning, IND
• 1999 — Tim Couch, CLE
• 2001 — Michael Vick, ATL
• 2002 — David Carr, HOU
• 2003 — Carson Palmer, CIN
• 2004 — Eli Manning, NYG
• 2005 — Alex Smith, SF
• 2007 — JaMarcus Russell, OAK

Certainly no one is going to argue that Peyton Manning wasn’t worth the selection. He’s potentially going to finish his career as the league’s most productive passer; has multiple league MVPs and has one SB title with years left to add another. But what of the rest of this motley crew? Certainly there are a few players in this group who have been productive: Carson Palmer has been consistently productive despite his teams travails; Eli Manning is erratic but is better than 2/3rds of the league’s passers; and Mike Vick won a ton of games before legal troubles ended his reign in Atlanta. But when you consider the respective places of these franchises and their lack of success; it does make you wonder.

And THEN come the “bargains”; eight of the top 12 passers through Week 12 were NOT first rounders:

• Tom Brady (6th rounder)
• Tony Romo (Undrafted)
• Derek Anderson (6th rounder)
• Brett Favre (2nd rounder)
• Matt Hasselbeck (6th rounder)
• Drew Brees (2nd rounder)
• Jon Kitna (Undrafted)
• Jeff Garcia (Undrafted)

Is anyone going to argue that Eli Manning and Alex Smith are better than Tony Romo? Will anyone trade Tim Couch’s career (and his impact on the team) for Matt Hasselbeck’s?

And we haven’t even mentioned other “bargain bin” QBs that have proven capable of putting up big numbers:

• Marc Bulger (6th rounder)
• Jake Delhomme (Undrafted)
• Kurt Warner (Undrafted)

Let’s look at the draft pedigree of the last 10 Super Bowl winners (and runners-up)

What’s striking is the “feast or famine” nature of the results. Five of the 10 winners have fielded high 1st round selections, which five instances were late round/undrafted QBs. The differential is similar in the runners up side of the ledger.

What does it all mean? Is it worth drafting a QB 1st overall? Is there a reason the “great” QBs seem to either be high picks OR very late round picks versus the myriad mid round QBs that we draftniks seem to get so excited about each year?

Randy Moss is, needless to say, having a renaissance year where he once again looks like the league’s best receiver (by a wide margin0 after several disappointing years in Minnesota and Oakland. One of our message board contributors asked the question: What is the gap between Jerry Rice and Randy Moss?

dgreen: Jerry Rice IS the greatest WR of all time. This thread isn’t to claim otherwise.

However, for a long time, Rice has been the G.O.A.T. by a pretty large margin over the next guy. “The next guy” tends to be Don Hutson in many minds, but there is at least some argument about who is “the next guy”. For awhile, Randy Moss was viewed as “the next guy” and a legitimate contender to Rice down the road. Then he went to Oakland and people started to even question his HOF worthiness. Now in NE, he is looking like what we always knew he could be: a contender to Rice.

So, what’s the gap here? How much can Moss close that gap? How good of a chance does Moss have to make a move on Rice for GOAT?

Regardless of what you personally think about Randy Moss, his value to the team, his work ethic, etc…it’s impossible to deny that STATISTICALLY he’s among the very best to ever play the position. But how do you measure Moss’ career against the someone that many feel is the best PLAYER (regardless of position) in the modern era?

I think when you consider career accomplishments, importance to the game, work ethic, attitude, longevity, there are MILES between Randy Moss and Jerry Rice. But to dgreen’s question, how far away is Moss statistically?

Randy is currently playing in his 10th season. Through nine games he’s tallied:

• 56 receptions
• 924 yards
• 12 TDs

If we’re to assume Moss maintains his current pace to finish out the year, he would amass:

• 100 receptions
• 1,643 yards
• 21 TDs

Now let’s compare where Moss’ projected career numbers stand against Jerry Rice’s numbers through 10 seasons:

Career Receiving Stats (through 10 seasons)

As you can see, Rice was quite a bit ahead of Moss through 10 seasons. When you consider the unprecedented longevity that Rice enjoyed, too, it seems pretty safe to say that Randy Moss is really no threat to Jerry Rice’s statistical accomplishments.

OK, a few weeks ago we pondered whether Adrian Peterson was on his way to the best rookie RB season in league history.

After this Sunday’s record-setting 296-yard game, it’s starting to look like we can remove the “rookie” modifier and simply ask, is Peterson going to have one of the best SEASONS ever?

• 8 games
• 158 rushes
• 1,036 yards
• 6.6 yards per rush
• 8 rushing TDs
• 12 receptions
• 206 yards receiving
• 1 receiving TD

Pro-rating that would yield:

• 316 rushes
• 2,072 yards
• 6.6 ypr
• 16 rushing TDs
• 24 receptions
• 412 yards receiving
• 2 receiving TDs

All-Time Single Season Rushing Yards

I’m feeling absolutely SUPER about my decision to trade AD a few weeks ago for Roy Williams, straight up. Hopefully you haven’t been as myopic and are riding “All Day” Peterson to a fantasy crown.

It’s been a rough few weeks for fellow staffer (and good buddy) Chase Stuart. You see, his beloved Jets fell to my Eagles on Sunday, leaving his team at a dismal 1-5 and also ensuring that Chase will be buying me dinner at my Manhattan restaurant of choice (get ready to pony up Chase!). As if that weren’t enough, the entire foundation of his NFL analysis has been torn asunder thanks to the astounding season Tom Brady is putting together. His love for the Jets is almost matched by his disdain for the Patriots, and he’s fought the good fight against proclaiming Belichick, Brady and the other Pats as “all time greats.”

That is, until this year.

In what some mistook for a tongue-in-cheek analysis, Chase eats crow and acknowledges what many of us have known for a long time: Tom Brady isn’t simply a great QB, he’s one of the best to ever play the game.

Pro-Football-Reference Blog — Now Serving: Crow

…Because while I had lots of good arguments before (at least, in my opinion) for why Brady was overrated, they’re all moot points now. The only way I could have been more wrong about Brady was if I called him a girl (which, come to think of it, I’m pretty sure I did off-line).

128.7 QB Rating. 16 TDs in 5 games. 9.20 adjusted yards per pass. 74.1% completion percentage.

Brady’s in the middle of one of the greatest seasons of all time. He just might end up having the greatest season of all time. Right now the league is averaging 5.98 AY/A, which means Brady has added 508 yards over the league average this season. The highest yards over league average mark is from Manning in ‘04, with 1,581 (a record Brady is on pace to break).

What else is there to say? I was wrong — give him some weapons, and the guy is unstoppable…

As you can see from the aforementioned quote, Chase penned this article before this weekend’s game against the Cowboys. A game where Brady enjoyed his first career 5-TD passing game. On the season, Brady’s numbers are:

• 148 completions
• 204 attempts
• 72.5% completion percentage
• 1,771 yards passing
• 8.7 yards per attempt
• 21 TD passes
• 2 INTs
• 128.9 paser rating

Needless to say, those numbers are usually reserved for EA Madden football. Were Brady somehow able to maintain this level of production for the rest of his season, we’re looking at a season of:

• 395 completions
• 544 attempts
• 72.5% comp rate
• 4,723 yards passing
• 8.7 yards per attempt
• 56 TD passes
• 5 INTs
• 128.9 passer rating

Those numbers would, inarguably be the best passing numbers in league history. Here is where those totals would rank all-time:

• #1 TD passes (Current record: Peyton Manning, 49 TDs)
• #1 TD/INT differential (P. Manning, +31)
• #1 Passer Rating (P. Manning, 121.1)
• #1 Completion Percentage (Ken Anderson, 70.55%)
• #4 Pass completions (Rich Gannon, 418; Warren Moon, 404; Drew Bledsoe, 400)
• #5 Passing yards (Dan Marino, 5084; Kurt Warner, 4830; Dan Fouts, 4802; Dan Marino, 4746)

All that and the guy has 3 Super Bowl rings and is dating a super model. Life is tough.

Here is a study of whether a particular starting QB helped, hurt, or held tight to helping you fantasy team win a game.

The lines I have drawn:

“Help” - 20+ FP per game.
“Hurt” - Less than 12 FP per game.
“Hold” - between 12 and 20.

Why these numbers?

Well, on average in 2006, the #12 QB in Fantasy Pts Per Game (FPPG) was right around 16. So if you wanted to start a QB that would help you win, you should go for 25% above average, so that puts the number for a helping hand QB at 20.

Conversely, if a QB failed to hit the QB average by 25% or more, he hurt your team and possibly cost you a win. That would put a score at 12 or under.

So, who has done well? Let’s have a look:

So what does it all mean?

Well, let’s look at the Top 12 QBs from preseason. These were the guys that were supposed to be top flight QBs that would help you win your league, correct? Well, here are the Top 12 at FBG from the preseason:

From the table, you can see the three guys who are killing your team - Drew Brees, Vince Young and Philip Rivers. You probably knew that already, but looking at it this way does help to show you what to shop for - a QB that has a better chance to either help or not hurt your squad.

Some other notable names from Table 1 include David Garrard (4 holds) and Brett Favre (3-1-1) who have helped out quite a few fantasy teams in their own right.

My good friend Mark Wimer took a fairly in depth look at the Panthers signing of Vinny Testaverde and discussed his chances as the Panthers potential emergency starting QB. As most of you know, Vinny is OLD by NFL standards. This will be his 21st NFL season; a remarkable accomplishment in a league where the average player suits up less than four years.

As Testaverde embarks on a potential start this weekend, it got me wondering how many QBs have suited up and played for as long. Using our Data Dominator, I took a look at all the QBs (since 1960) that attempted at least one pass in their 20th season or later.

That’s it folks. Not exactly a resounding endorsement for Vinny to shock the world, is it? The good news, if you can call it that, is Vinnie needs only 35 completions, 392 yards and 4 TDs to overtake Earl Morrall for 2nd all-time on this list. If he gets two or three starts in Carolina, he’ll likely do just that.

The Panthers have suffered a rash of injuries at the QB position, and in response to the loss of Jake Delhomme and the serious back injury to David Carr, they have signed the venerable and celebrated Vinny Testaverde. Carr missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday, and is looking very iffy to play this weekend - actually, for some time to come.

Here’s how Carr described his back injury (remember, this is from a guy who got sacked and hit roughly a gazillion times in Houston):

“When I got hit, I felt like I got sat on and twisted, and every bone in my back popped all the way to the back of my neck. It was by far the worst pain I’ve ever felt in my life. There was no doubt. I was rolling around out there like an idiot, but that’s how it felt. I was like, ‘Stop moving.’ I was trying to tell myself, but I couldn’t.”

Given the above, I’d say his prospects for playing any time soon are pretty dim. However, there remain a lot of questions to be answered about why the Panthers made this move.

First of all, why would the Panthers turn to Testaverde at this juncture, rather than, say, Tim Rattay or Chris Weinke (besides the fact that Weinke stinks, I mean)? There are several reasons - the one that tops the list is that Testaverde has 21 years of NFL experience - as he put it on Wednesday:

“I haven’t told them yet, but I have probably forgot more football than these guys already know. We’ll have some fun with that.”

There is no question that in his years in the league, Testaverde has learned more playbooks and played in more schemes than any other free agent available at this point in the 2007 season. Also, he spent last season in New England, backing up Tom Brady - Carolina’s OC Jeff Davidson (a former New England assistant) has installed a scheme based on the Patriots’ offense. So Testaverde’s learning curve in Carolina should be shorter than just about any other guy they might have tried to add to the roster during week 6 of the regular season.

Another question that leaps to mind is “Can Testaverde still play at age 43?” Well, he certainly believes he can - in May, when he was around the New England organization, and Karen Guregian of the Boston Herald filed the following comments about Testaverde participating in OTA’s (May 23rd):

“Free agent QB Vinny Testaverde is taking part in Patriots passing camp this week, and it is not just for fun. According to Mike Azzarelli, a close friend and associate of the Testaverde, the 43-year-old has not retired, nor does he have any plans to do so. He’s looking for work. He’s looking to add a 21st season to his distinguished resume. “He’s not retired. I doubt he’d be hanging out,” said Azzarelli when asked about Testaverde’s appearance in Foxboro this week. “He’s intent on playing.” Azzarelli is no longer an agent, but continues to work for Testaverde.”

Testaverde was signed to a one year deal on August 18th, and participated in practice sessions until being cut on September 1st - he hasn’t just been sitting on the couch since last year, waiting for the phone to ring, friends.

Another point to consider when asking the question “Can Testaverde still play?” is his personal history. He was reviled for years as one of the biggest draft busts ever after an unsuccessful start to his career in Tampa Bay (even though he is still the all-time franchise passing leader, by the way). Tampa never did better than 6-10 during his time starting there, from partway through 1987 until he was replaced by Craig Erickson in 1993 (Tampa posted a cumulative record of 28-67 from ‘87-’93). It would have been very easy to give up, move on, and find another line of work - but Testaverde never lost confidence in himself or his abilities. He has been to the Pro Bowl twice since his sojourn in Tampa, after his ‘96 campaign with the Ravens and after his ‘98 campaign with the Jets. Vinny Testaverde has fought through extreme adversity to become considered a success as a pro QB, and practically nobody besides he (and maybe his mom and dad) would have predicted that back in 1993.

The challenge of taking over the reins in Carolina during Week 6 of 2007 is small potatoes for Vinny Testaverde, folks.

Another thing that remains to be seen is whether or not Testaverde can establish a strong rapport with Steve Smith and the rest of the Panthers quickly - but that’s another thing he has done many times before in his various NFL stops. (Tampa Bay, Cleveland, Baltimore, NYJ, Dallas, NYJ, New England, and now Carolina). There is no reason to expect him to suddenly lose his leadership skills.

The final question we are faced with is “Does Vinny Testaverde have anything left in the tank?” Well, most recently he tossed 297/495 for 3,532 yards, 17 TDs and 20 interceptions (21/38/1 rushing) for the Dallas Cowboys back in 2004. The team went 6-10 that year, but posting 3532 yards passing as QB with an aging Keyshawn Johnson (70/981/6) as your #1 wide receiver - Terry Glenn only managed 6 games in 2004 due to injury (24/400/2), and Antonio Bryant was third on the team with 16/266/0 over 5 games and then he was out of the picture - with a bunch of youngsters (Patrick Crayton posted 7 games for 12/162/1) or aging never-have-beens (Quincy Morgan was 4th on the squad with 9 games for 22/260/0) as Testaverde’s targets was actually an impressive feat, in retrospect.

We’ll see what Testaverde has to offer the Panthers very soon - probably this Sunday vs. Arizona - but I wouldn’t bet against him, personally. If you need a #2 fantasy QB for your squad given all the injuries over the past few weeks, you could do worse than to pick up Testaverde.

It seems that every year football fans, fantasy owners and media pundits find a way to hype players as “the best ever” and speak with such hyperbole as though to convince ourselves we’re witnessing greatness. It’s never quite enough to say someone is “very good” or “excellent”…they have to be “the greatest of all time” or “bound for the Hall of Fame.” Such hyperbole often rears its ugly head in March and April as football starved fans salivate over the new crop of NFL rookies.

Calvin Johnson is the latest in a long line of ultra-hyped rookie receivers. Make no mistake, I fully participated in the Calvin Johnson hype too, and with good reason. Johnson has the size of a tight end, world-class speed, glue-like hands and his on-field production is matched by his quality as an upstanding citizen. Combining all that with a chance to play for Mike Martz in a pass happy offense makes Johnson a virtual no brainer.

Yet, Johnson isn’t the best rookie receiver through Week Five. In fact, he’s not the 2nd best rookie. And it’s not even close.

ENTER Dwayne Bowe.

Through Week 5, Bowe is the leading rookie receiver with:

• 22 receptions
• 369 yards
• 16.8 yards per reception
• 3 TDs
• 54.9 fantasy points

Top 10 Rookie Fantasy Recivers (through Week 5)

How does Bowe’s start compare historically? Well, if Bowe were able to sustain his productivity over the full season, his numbers would approximate to:

• 70 receptions
• 1,180 yards
• 16.8 yards per reception
• 10 TDs
• 178 fantasy points

How would those numbers compare historically? 178 fantasy points would make Bowe the 6th most productive fantasy rookie WR in LEAGUE HISTORY

Top 10 Rookie Fantasy WRs (1960-Present)

Should we be surprised? On one hand, Bowe was also a 1st round pick (23rd overall) and was well regarded by most scouts. He also was drafted by a team that had a desperate need for a starting caliber WR. The Chiefs have been relying on Eddie Kennison (who is much better suited as a WR2) for years and have struggled to find consistency at WR2 and beyond. But despite those obvious positives, there were reasons to discount Bowe’s rookie chances. One, the Chiefs QB situation is, and continues to be, tenuous. Two, Herm Edwards is among the league’s most conservative head coaches. Three, changes on the offensive line cast a shadow over the Chiefs ability to sustain drives.

As many of you know, I profess that the keys to fantasy success are Ability and Opportunity. Many NFL players have the ability to excel, but not as many have the opportunity; particularly in their rookie seasons. An injury to Eddie Kennison forced the Chiefs to start Bowe far sooner than I think he would’ve otherwise. But the great news for fantasy owners lucky enough to roster Bowe is that, now that he’s produced week in, week out, you can bet he won’t stop being a productive target when Eddie Kennison gets back in the lineup.

Yesterday, we saw how the Chargers running game has declined through three games more than any team since the ‘96-’97 seasons. Well, San Diego, you’ve got some company. The 2006-2007 Saints are currently mirroring the Chargers’ fall from grace. No passing attack since 1996 has seen as large a decline in performance through three games as the ‘07 Saints.

What makes both situations so surprising is that each team kept its key personnel. The Saints brought back Brees, Bush, Colston and McAllister, and drafted Robert Meachem to replace Joe Horn. Sean Payton is still around, so we can’t use the Norv Turner excuse in New Orleans. The real culprit has been the abysmal play of the line, but who could have predicted that? Pro Bowl LT Jammal Brown is injured and playing like it, while RT Jon Stinchcomb is playing miserably. Brees has been sacked “only” four times, but he’s committed nine turnovers in three games in the face of constant pressure. So how much worse than last year are the Saints passing stats?

I calculated the adjusted yards per pass attempt for all passes thrown by QBs for every team from 1996-2006. For those that don’t remember what AY/A is,

Adjusted yards per attempt is defined as (passing yards + 10*(TD passes) - 45*(interceptions thrown)) / (pass attempts). It was devised (and the reasoning behind it explained) in a book called The Hidden Game of Football, by Carroll, Palmer, and Thorn.

Here are the top 20 passing teams from 1996-2006, sorted by adjusted yards per pass attempt.

 year	tm 	cmp	att	yard	td	int	AY/A
 2004	clt	353	526	4732	51	10	9.11
 2004	min	379	548	4717	39	11	8.42
 2000	ram	380	587	5492	37	23	8.22
 1999	ram	343	529	4586	42	15	8.19
 1998	atl	236	420	3722	28	15	7.92
 2006	phi	322	542	4298	31	 8	7.84
 2003	oti	312	496	3992	30	 9	7.84
 1998	min	327	534	4492	41	16	7.83
 2005	clt	348	515	4191	31	11	7.78
 2006	clt	362	557	4397	31	 9	7.72
 2004	sdg	287	446	3468	29	 7	7.72
 2001	ram	378	549	4852	36	22	7.69
 1998	sfo	346	555	4482	40	15	7.58
 2003	min	333	518	4169	32	13	7.54
 2006	nor	372	578	4626	27	12	7.54
 2000	den	354	568	4464	28	12	7.40
 2004	phi	336	546	4208	32	11	7.39
 2004	kan	370	561	4633	27	17	7.38
 2005	kan	317	507	4014	17	10	7.36
 2000	sfo	365	581	4404	32	10	7.36

For comparison’s sake, here are the worst 20 passing teams from 1996-2006:

 year	tm 	cmp	att	yard	td	int	AY/A
 1998	sdg	260	565	3092	10	34	2.94
 1997	nor	244	487	3012	12	35	3.20
 1999	crd	286	555	3059	11	30	3.28
 2005	sfo	202	387	2163	8	21	3.35
 2003	det	318	585	2967	17	24	3.52
 2000	cin	207	454	2219	6	14	3.63
 1998	phi	282	531	2733	7	18	3.75
 1999	phi	235	472	2405	18	18	3.76
 2001	cin	322	601	3291	12	25	3.80
 2001	car	314	578	3098	12	22	3.85
 2002	det	277	575	3168	19	25	3.88
 2005	chi	218	416	2183	11	15	3.89
 2006	rai	263	481	2850	7	23	3.92
 1996	nyg	237	458	2639	13	21	3.98
 2003	atl	230	457	2631	14	21	4.00
 2001	d