Wow, sometimes I just don’t get it. The Minnesota Vikings acquire DE Jared Allen from the Kansas City Chiefs and sign him to a new contract, and I see hosts of people on radio, TV and internet message boards saying that the Vikings OVERPAID. While I can see, on the surface, why some people may have that initial reaction, I frankly think it’s conventional thinking and, with just a little analysis, people will come to realize that this move was nothing short of a NO-BRAINER for the Vikings.

First, let’s get the terms of the trade out of the way:

Vikings Get:

• DE Jared Allen
• 6th round pick (6.21 — 187th overall)

Chiefs Get:

• 1st round pick (1.17 — 17th overall)
• 3rd round pick (3.10 — 73rd overall)
• 3rd round pick (3.19 — 82nd overall)
• 6th round pick (6.16 — 182nd overall)

In conjunction with the trade, the Vikings gave Allen a new 6-year contract worth up to $74mm with incentives. The deal includes $31mm in guarantees; and puts Allen among the league’s highest paid defenders.

For those who might not realize, the 2007 Minnesota Vikings were the first team in NFL history to lead the league in both rushing offense and defense yet miss the playoffs. This team isn’t in rebuilding mode, it’s a team that could easily compete for a top seed in the NFC playoffs, particularly with the retirement of Brett Favre; the NFC North is wide open for the Vikes’ taking.

For the naysayers, let me offer you not one but two perspectives on why this deal made a ton of sense for Minnesota:

Approach #1: The Peer Group Comparison

Let’s say you turned on Sportscenter and read that the Vikings acquired Julius Peppers from the Panthers instead. Better yet, let’s say they acquired Dwight Freeney for the same draft compensation from Indianapolis. How many NFL pundits and fans would be singing the Vikings praises then? Yet, here’s the thing…Jared Allen is AS GOOD IF NOT BETTER than either Peppers or Freeney.

• Julius Peppers — 28 years old, 90 games played, 56 sacks, 31 passes defensed, 288 tackles
• Dwight Freeney — 28 years old, 88 games played, 60 sacks, 11 passes defensed, 190 tackles
• Jared Allen — 26 years old, 61 games played, 43 sacks, 25 passes defense, 227 tackles

Allen is:

• Two years younger
• Healthier
• Averaged more sacks per game (0.70 vs. 0.68 & 0.62)
• Averaged more passes defensed per game (0.41 vs. 0.13 & 0.34)
• Averaged more tackles per game (3.72 vs. 2.16 & 3.20)

Approach #2: The Draft Value Chart Comparison

By now everyone knows that most NFL teams utilize a derivative of the same draft trade chart that was first popularized by Jimmy Johnson back in his Cowboys coaching days. This is the tried and true chart teams use to evaluate trading up or down on draft day. The chart assigns a point value to each pick and declines with each successive pick.

According to the most common version of the trade chart, the value of the picks KC received was:

• 17th = 950 points
• 73rd = 225 points
• 82nd = 180 points
• 182nd = 18.6 points
• TOTAL = 1,373.6 points

In order for most GMs to make this trade, they have to feel they’re getting back equivalent or better value. The value of the 6th round pick the Vikes acquired = 16.6 points, which means:

• 187th = 16.6 points
• DIFFERENTIAL = 1,357 points

In order for the deal to make sense, Jared Allen should be “worth” at least 1,357 points on the draft chart. According to the draft chart:

• 9th overall = 1,350 points
• 8th overall = 1,400 points

Does ANYONE want to argue that Jared Allen isn’t worth the 8th or 9th overall pick in this year’s draft? You’re getting a 26 year old proven ELITE defensive end. Frankly, if we’re being intellectually honest, Jared Allen would be the 1st overall pick WITHOUT QUESTION if he were draft eligible this year. He’s a proven commodity at an elite position. Yet, all the Vikings really need out of him is the value of the 8th or 9th pick in the draft.

Let’s not mince words. Barring injury, this deal was a LAYUP for the Vikings. Keep in mind what Jared Allen has accomplished and then consider who his defensive linemates were in Kansas City. Now, he gets to line up alongside Kevin and Pat Williams; the best 4-3 tackles in the NFC. The Vikes added the league’s best young defensive end to a defense that already led the league in rushing defense. Even if their pass offense continues to struggle this season, the combination of a stifling defense and the NFC’s top rushing offense should give them as easy a road to the playoffs as any team in the NFC.

Congrats to the Vikings fans; as an Eagles season ticket holder I’m jealous.

The Panthers seem bound and determined to not be a one-man show in the receiving game this year. Although I don’t have the hard metrics to back this up, I think it’s fair to say Steve Smith has been among the most double-teamed receivers in the NFL over his career; if for no other reason than the lack of quality receiving options at other positions.

In 2008, things look brighter, at least on paper.

The Panthers have signed free agent D.J. Hackett to a 2-year, $3.5mm deal and will pair him opposite Smith, while veteran Muhsin Muhammad mans the 3rd spot. Hackett was clearly the best FA receiver left on the market, and his inability to land a big contract had many wondering whether he would turn tail and return to the Seahawks.

While Hackett didn’t break the bank, he does end up in an intriguing situation. Assuming QB Jake Delhomme is healthy, the Panthers have the makings of an offense that could throw for 4,000 yards this season. Smith should be the main benefactor, but there should be plenty of targets left for Hackett.

The key for Hackett is to REMAIN HEALTHY. Hackett missed 10 games last season and has started only 14 games in his four-year career. When healthy, Hackett is a big (6′2″, 208 pounds) receiver capable of making plays in traffic.

Hard not to like this signing if you’re a Panthers fan. No financial commitment of any consequence yet they land one of the few young (Hackett is 26 years old) free agent receivers with the potential to become an above average starter.

Just when you though the Raiders couldn’t get any nuttier, they go ahead and blow their own record for financial inadequacy right out of the water. We, like many others, wondered why the Raiders were so eager to commit $50.5mm including $18mm in guarantees to DT Tommy Kelly at the start of free agency. And when Al Davis followed that up with the questionable signing of safety Gibril Wilson to a 6-year, $39mm contract with $16mm in guarantees, we bit our tongue. But neither move comes close to yesterday’s signing of Javon Walker.

According to several sources, the Raiders are putting the finishing touches on a 6-year, $55 million contract. The deal allegedly includes $16mm in guarantees and will pay him $27mm over the first three years of the deal.

That is BAFFLING.

Even if we accept the notion that this year’s free agent contracts are driven by the inflation of a rising salary cap, how on Earth can the Raiders justify the sensibility of this signing?

• Randy Moss, he of the 23 TD receptions and Hall of Fame credentials, just signed a 3-year, $27mm deal with New England. Moss got $15mm guaranteed. The Raiders are paying Walker MORE guaranteed money than Randy Moss!
• Jerry Porter, another Raiders castoff, signed a 6-year deal with the Jaguars. The difference? It was for $30mm with $10mm guaranteed. In other words, Walker is getting 2x what Porter got.

It would be one thing if the Raiders were signing Walker based solely on his talent, with no concern toward his prior injuries or personality quirks. But how can you ignore either of those factors?

• Demanded a trade from Green Bay
• Demanded a trade/release from Denver
• Complained about his contractual status on both teams
• Has undergone not one, not two, but THREE knee surgeries in the last three years

Does that sound like someone you break the bank for, and give a monster contract to without showing his stuff? While there were other teams interested in Javon, does anyone honestly think another team would’ve come close to matching that deal?

If Walker is healthy, he can produce; let’s not mistake that. He’s scored 30 TDs in 72 games, and has two 1,000-yard seasons under his belt. But given his attitude and injury risk; not to mention the potentially impressionable nature of 2nd year QB JaMarcus Russell; this signing makes little sense. Walker has all the advantage here, where is the Raiders leverage?

The silver (& black) lining is that savvy fantasy football owners can successfully ignore Walker in 2008. I’m sure his “potential” will mean he gets drafted far too early for the risks involved. Let someone else take that risk while you build your roster the right way.

It’s been a stressful few days for Patriots fans. While they were steeled against losing the likes of Asante Samuel, Randall Gay, Donte Stallworth and Eugene Wilson, no Patriots fan wanted to see Randy “23 TDs” Moss walk out the door. Today, Adam Schefter is reporting that Moss has agreed to a new 3-year, $27mm deal.

So ends a curious few weeks of speculation. When the Patriots opted not to tender Moss with the franchise designation, many (myself included) thought a long-term deal was already in place; but couldn’t be formally announced until the beginning of free agency. Yet, when the clock struck midnight Moss and the Patriots were eerily quiet about the negotiations.

As far as we know, Moss didn’t agree to visit other teams but that didn’t stop the paranoia from flowing over the last few days. Some of the more outlandish rumors included:

• Moss wanted to reunite with Daunte Culpepper as a packaged deal somewhere
• That the Eagles were going to sign him because Moss and McNabb were seen buddying up at the NFL event in Disney
• The Brett Favre was basing his decision on retirement on whether the Packers could acquire Moss

Yeah…it’s been one of those weeks.

While the full terms of the new contract aren’t out yet, it’s safe to say that both sides deserve credit for this one.

• Moss took less to stay -- Moss could’ve EASILY gotten more than 3 years, $27mm from another team, if he was willing to go to a non-contender flush with cash. If you don’t believe that, take a look at the 4-years, $16mm Andre Davis got to re-sign in Houston, or the 6-years, $42mm Bernard Berrian nabbed from Minnesota, or the 6-years, $30mm deal Jerry Porter got to sign with Jacksonville.
• New England didn’t panic – We shouldn’t be surprised when New England plays it cool, but how many teams would’ve let their prized free agent sit out on the open market amidst the buying frenzy we’ve seen the last few days?

Fantasy owners can breathe a sign of relief

No one should expect Tom Brady to throw 50 TDs nor should they expect Moss to catch 23 scores again in 2008. But today’s signing does put a floor in the Patriots offense (precluding major injury) and all but assures that both Moss and Brady will be among the top players at their positions come fantasy draft time. Neither is going to come cheaply this year (unlike last season), but that’s a discussion for another day.

Michael “The Burner” Turner has signed a 6-year, $34.5mm deal including $15mm in guaranteed money. Turner, easily the class of the free agent RB market, took a few days to sign with Atlanta but not because he was weighing other options. As far as we know, Turner’s only visit and offer came from the Falcons.

Turner (5′10″, 237 pounds, 25 years old) is a big back who can push the pile and drag defenders when he gets a head of steam. While not a pure speed merchant, he has a 2nd gear which is a rare thing for someone his size. Used sparingly as a backup to LaDainian Tomlinson, Turner has performed admirably in spot duty. Take a gander at Turner’s career numbers:

• 228 carries
• 1,257 yards
• 5.5 yards per carry
• 6 TDs
• 11 receptions
• 71 yards

In with Turner, Out with Dunn?

In an era when many teams are using two-back systems, expect Turner to serve as the Falcons main ball-carrier while Jerious Norwood logs 100-150 carries (ideally if both stay healthy). This signing all but ends Warrick Dunn’s career in Atlanta. A lot of people expected Norwood to overtake Dunn last year in attempts, but somehow the cagey veteran started 15 games and logged 227 carries. Unfortunately for Falcons fans, he averaged just 3.2 yards per carry.

Savvy fantasy owners understand that Turner isn’t going to average 5.5 yards per carry as a full-time back. However, it would be shocking if he doesn’t put up much better per carry numbers than Dunn has of late. Consider that Norwood has averaged 6.2 yards per carry in his two seasons; so that Falcons line isn’t incapable of run blocking.

Where Turner will have to prove himself is as a red zone threat and a receiver; two critical parts to any fantasy runner’s success. Turner only has six touchdowns in four seasons. Yes, he had to play behind the league’s highest scoring RB, but still, we don’t know how good Turner can be in short yardage situations. In the receiving department, he’ll have to improve on his current scouting reports, or else look for Norwood to notch most of the receptions out of the backfield.

What should we expect in 2008?

I’ll throw out 250 carries for 1,100-1,200 yards and 7-9 TDs as a baseline. We’ll tweak his projections and put more meat on the bones later in the offseason; once we have a better picture of the rest of the team’s makeup. The Falcons need to implement a new offensive system and probably have moves to make in free agency and the draft to secure the offensive line. Once those moves have happened (or not), we’ll see whether Turner is going to live up to the enormous fantasy billing he’ll receiver from a lot of people this summer.

Before the start of free agency, Bernard Berrian indicated he wanted a contract similar to the 6-year, $36mm deal Deion Branch received from the Seattle Seahawks a season ago. While few questioned whether Berrian was a coveted free agent (he’s the #2 WR on most boards, behind Randy Moss), a lot of folks questioned whether Berrian would and should be paid as one of the elite at the position.

As I’ve been saying for weeks now, the market dictates the price as much as the talent does. We’ve seen free agents land monster deals at every position, and it’s more about the rising salary cap (estimated $116mm) and team’s projected cap room (more than at any point in league history) than it is about saying these free agents are the best in the league.

Regardless of whether you think Berrian is worth top-10 money, he stood a very good chance at landing that kind of contract this offseason.

And so he has…The Minnesota Vikings have signed Berrian to a 6-year, $42mm deal with $16mm guaranteed. That may seem like big coin for a guy that’s never had 1,000-yard season, but the Vikings are hoping Berrian is on the cusp of greatness and will leverage his deep speed to take the pressure off QB Tarvaris Jackson as well as the two-headed running attack of Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor.

How much will Berrian help the Vikings passing attack?

Without looking up the stats, I bet a lot of you would assume the Bears passing attack was almost as bad as the Vikings last year, right? Now go look at the stats:

• Passing Yards — 3,362 Bears vs. 2,745 Vikings
• Attempts — 569 Bears vs. 432 Vikings
• Completions — 327 Bears vs. 249 Vikings
• Completion Percentage — 57.5% Bears vs. 57.6% Vikings
• Yards per Attempt — 5.9 Bears vs. 6.4 Vikings
• Passing TDs — 18 Bears vs. 12 Vikings
• TDs conversion percentage — 3.2% Bears vs. 2.7% Vikings

If these numbers look ugly, they are. But that’s not the key takeaway. The key takeaway is that the Vikings numbers make the Bears look like the Greatest Show on Turf. For all of the Bears ineptitude and the dissatisfaction with the three headed QB monster of Griese/Orton/Grossman, they collectively were MORE productive than what Tarvaris Jackson and his backups produced in Minnesota.

As a group, the Vikings WRs converted 56.5% of their intended targets. That’s not very good, as you might expect. But here’s the bad news, Bernard Berrian has only converted 51.2% of his career targets. Let that sink in folks. For all of Berrian’s many talents, he’s managed to barely catch half of the targets thrown to him, yet is going to a team that had WORSE quarterbacking than what he enjoyed with the Bears.

But will this signing help Berrian or his fantasy owners?

Now, we know Berrian is a speedy receiver and, to his credit, he is coming off a career season (70 catches for 948 yards and 5 TDs). But is he an all around difference maker? Even if you argue his numbers were hurt by the QB situation in Chicago, how can anyone say his situation is MORE advantageous in Minnesota?

At least in Chicago, Berrian had the advantage of seeing a lot of targets because the Bears couldn’t run the ball. The Vikings have a phenomenal rushing attack and have no intentions of throwing the ball anywhere close to the 569 times the Bears did a year ago. So even if you assume Berrian can somehow improve upon his lackluster catch percentage in a new environment, it still seems unlikely he’ll see as many targets.

• In 2007, Berrian was targeted 127 times [22% of the Bears pass attempts]
• Berrian would’ve needed to have seen 30% of the Vikings attempts last year just to match his output
• Even if you assume the Vikings will throw a bit more in 2008, they aren’t going to dramatically shift the offensive balance given how superb their rushing attack is

Could Berrian put together a 1,000+ yard season  next year? Certainly, but a lot of things need to happen.

1. He needs to be more consistent catching short- and intermediate passes
2. The Vikings need to see DRAMATIC improvement from Tarvaris Jackson
3. The Vikings need to commit to a more balanced run/pass ratio [despite having a dominant rushing attack]

I think this is one of those signings that helps the Vikings a lot more than it helps fantasy football owners. Given Berrian’s contract and the fact he’s the clear #1 in Minnesota, I expect a lot of fantasy players will covet Berrian and draft him much too early in 2008. I won’t be one of them.

The Browns continue their free agent bonanza, signing Donte Stallworth to a 7-year, $35mm contract with $10mm in guarantees. This looks like a smart move for player and team alike. After wearing out his welcome in New Orleans, Stallworth was traded to the Eagles in 2006 and averaged a league best 19.1 yards per catch; but the Eagles deemed him expendable because he only played in 12 games and caught 38 passes. Last year, Stallworth was supposed to be Tom Brady’s deep threat; that is, until they traded for Randy Moss a few weeks after signing Donte. He still chipped in 46 catches but wasn’t a centerpiece of the Patriots dynamic offensive attack.

Now, Stallworth gets stability and a chance to establish himself on one of the league’s up-and-coming offenses. His speed should fit perfectly alongside Pro Bowl WR Braylon Edwards and TE Kellen Winslow. QB Derek Anderson led the league in yards per completion last year; and Stallworth’s addition will mean even more commitment to an aggressive, downfield passing attack.

What could this mean for the Browns offense?

Last year, Joe Jurevicius caught 50 receptions for 614 yards (12.3 per catch) with 3 TDs as the starter opposite Braylon Edwards. No other Browns wideout caught more than 8 passes.

So now the Browns add the speedy Stallworth to the mix; allowing them to not only stretch the field more, but to also user more 3-WR sets with Jurevicius (a big, tall, slow receiver) working out of the slot.

Although one can’t extrapolate numbers directly, let’s just have some fun with numbers for a second; if Donte Stallworth matched his career averages last year in place of  Joe Jurevicius, how would the Browns offense have looked?

• Jurevicius’ 2007 totals — 50 receptions for 614 yards (12.3 per catch), 3 TDs
• Stallworth’s Career averages — 15.1 yards per catch, 1 TD every 9 catches
• Implied Stallworth 2007 totals — 50 receptions for 755 yards (15.1 per catch), 5 TDs

If Derek Anderson can approximate his output from 2007 again this season, the Browns could be looking at a 4,000-yard season and 30+ passing TDs. WOW.

NFL free agency is upon us, and big names are already packing their bags (or paying someone to do it) for new cities. Asante Samuel, Alan Faneca, Bernard Berrian, Donte Stallworth, and more are all ready to get their new jersey and playbook. Millions of dollars are flying everywhere as big names get signed almost hourly.

Two names are missing off of that list - Michael Turner and Randy Moss.

I just discussed how Moss affects Larry Fitzgerald, but the Domino Effect is way bigger with Michael Turner. Let’s have a look at the scenarios that could be in play if Turner signs on Sunday with Atlanta, or even another team.

There are several NFL teams that are in the RB market in one way or another this year, which normally would mean a great contract is about to be thrown at all the free agents that are available to carry the ball for another team. So why hasn’t Turner signed a mega-contract, big money, long-term deal by now?

The answer should be obvious if you checked out the NFL Combine last week.

This year’s NFL Draft class of RBs looks to be about as deep as anyone can remember. Darren McFadden leads the list, but hot on his heels (and even above him on some rankings) are both Jonathan Stewart and Rashard Mendenhall. All three are considered to be feature backs waiting to happen.

It gets worse for Turner - there are as many as seven RBs that are also top prospects that follow - take your pick of Ray Rice, Felix Jones, Jamaal Charles, Kevin Smith, Chris Johnson, Matt Forte or Justin Forsett - just to name a possible group. The one-time Heisman candidate from West Virginia, Steve Slaton, isn’t even on that list. Yes, it is that deep.

So an NFL team has this decision to make - take a somewhat proven NFL rusher and pay him big bucks now, or roll the dice on a rookie and hope for the best. Many teams will go the draft option, which also has the added bonus of - you guess it - a cheaper contract.

All this adds up to a situation where Michael Turner almost has to take the best deal he can rather than fighting off GM’s trying to back up armored trucks to his door. If he and his agent are smart, they get all they can from the Falcons, who not only need a rusher but also a new face for their organization. No one wants to bury 2007 faster than Arthur Blank.

Lastly, consider a guy like Julius Jones. If you’re unfortunate enough to be a free agent RB a tier below Turner, you’re in even worse shape as one fewer team will be shopping for a back and looking even harder at April’s NFL Draft. Only the two-back, RBBC philosophy of today’s NFL ensures that they will eventually find a home - it just might have a few less bedrooms and baths in it than last year.

NFL free agency is upon us, and big names are already packing their bags (or paying someone to do it) for new cities. Asante Samuel, Alan Faneca, Bernard Berrian, Donte Stallworth, and more are all ready to get their new jersey and playbook. Millions of dollars are flying everywhere as big names get signed almost hourly.

Two names are missing off of that list - Michael Turner and Randy Moss.

Let’s talk about Moss first. Sure, Berrian and Stallworth are now in Minnesota and Cleveland, respectively - but there are other WRs that are in the wind right now with their futures uncertain. Everyone is talking about what will happen with Larry Fitzgerald in Arizona, and neither Fitz nor the Cards are happy. Fitzgerald doesn’t want to budge much off of his big payday, which he has earned, but the Cardinals are on the outside looking in with Faneca and others getting signed elsewhere. With a salary cap problem that makes Dan Snyder look like Scott Pioli, Arizona is left out in the cold while the hot stove NFL names ink deals.

So what’s this have to do with Randy Moss? Well, Fitzgerald wants his money but odds are that he also wants to be paid like the best WR in the NFL. Has anyone else considered that Moss’ next contract could set the bar for what any deal has to beat to get to that level? I’ve thought about it and it is starting to make sense. All these talks of trades for Lito Sheppard and a draft choice with the Eagles and other possible scenarios for Fitzgerald would all hinge on a new and cap-friendly contract with Larry’s John Hancock on the bottom. If Randy Moss signs a deal with either the Patriots or another franchise, it sets the high watermark for WR salaries.

The downside for Fitzgerald in this stalemate is two-fold: the Cards cannot wait forever, and there is also the risk that Moss could go the Philadelphia. Arizona does not want to cripple themselves with a massive cap number to keep Fitzgerald, yet the front office is still saying that they are willing to do just that. Odds are that if he won’t renegotiate, the Cardinals would be better served to move him off of their bloated books. The problem for both sides is that every signing like Berrian and Stallworth reduces the chances of a trade, reducing the number of teams that would go hard after Fitzgerald, and also that the longer this drags on the more it hurts Arizona’s chances for improvement by adding more talent.

Look for Randy Moss to make up his mind soon, and I would not be surprised at all to see both Fitz and the Cards celebrate Moss’ decision.

I’ll talk more about Michael Turner and the running backs next.

Asante Samuel, considered the top defensive free agent by most, wasted little time in finding a new home. Today he signed a 6-year, $57mm deal with the Philadelphia Eagles. Samuel has an astounding 16 interceptions in the last two seasons, excluding the game-changing picks he made in the playoffs, as well.

Why the Eagles made this move…

Inexplicably, more than a few Eagles fans (and radio hosts) wondered today why this was the Eagles big free agent move. Putting aside the absurdity of questioning the acquisition of the premiere free agent in this year’s crop, there is an extremely obvious reason why this move makes inordinate sense:

• 11 interceptions
• 19 takeaways

The Eagles were among the worst in the league last season at creating turnovers; and that kept a top 10 defense (statistically) from being a real difference maker. Samuel single-handedly changes that dynamic.

But what about Lito Sheppard?

Lito Sheppard is, in his own right, an excellent cornerback and unheralded for his importance to the Eagles defensive scheme. Unfortunately, Sheppard has missed 14 regular season games in the last three seasons and has a reputation for being a “slow healer.” He’s also expressed unhappiness about his contract status.

So is Lito going to be an Eagle in 2008?

There are two telling quotes from Andy Reid today that paint the picture:

1)  “We’re obviously trying to strengthen the defense,” Reid said. “Obviously, I think the cornerback position is very important. When you have an opportunity to get the best one in the business, then you need to look at that. I welcome him aboard, and I know [defensive coordinator] Jim Johnson has great plans for Asante.

2)  Head coach Andy Reid said Samuel will be his starting left cornerback for 2008. Beyond that, Reid said “we’ll work things out from there.”

Lito wants a bigger contract, and is now losing his spot to the league’s highest paid corner. Does that sound like Lito is in the Birds’ plans for 2008?

OK, so what are the Eagles going to do with Lito?

Expect the Eagles to aggressively pursue a trade opportunity. Sheppard is a Pro Bowl corner and signed through 2011; so he’s got immense trade value. Several teams have already expressed an interest in him. What can the Eagles expect back in return? That’s entirely dependent on the team in question. Sheppard could be packaged with one or two of the Eagles draft picks for an upgrade at receiver (think Roy Williams or Larry Fitzgerald) OR he could be swapped for a pass rusher like Jared Allen. Is either move likely? NO, of course not. But possible? Certainly so.

Lest anyone think Bill Parcells was going to take a measured approach toward rebuilding the woeful Miami Dolphins, think again. In what has to be the busiest single day in the history of NFL free agency, Parcells and his staff have signed a flurry of players in an attempt to right a ship that finished 1-15 a season ago. The Dolphins had approximately $40mm under the cap to spend; and Parcells appears ready to use every last bit of it. Today’s signings ranged from veteran locker room guys (e.g., Jason Ferguson and Sean Ryan) to potential Pro Bowlers (e.g., Calvin Pace). And considering the team’s cap situation, Parcells probably isn’t done yet.

A Recap of Bill’s Frenzied Friday

LB Calvin Pace — Rated as one of the top players at his position, Pace is exactly the kind of player Parcells’ covets. Pace is big (a converted defensive end) and thrived as the rush ‘backer in the Cardinals 3-4 last year. Although this isn’t official yet, several reports have the Fins giving Pace $20mm guaranteed. The addition of Pace raises questions about whether the team plans on keeping Joey Porter around. NOTE: Despite earlier reports, Pace did not sign with Miami but instead signed a 6-year, $42mm deal with the Jets.

OG Justin Smiley — The Dolphins signed Smiley to a 5-year, $25mm deal including $9mm in guarantees. Smiley has been a starter for most of his career (in San Francisco) and significantly upgrades the interior of the Dolphins line. Smiley helped open holes for Frank Gore and will likely slide in between center Samson Satele and LT L.J. Shelton.

DT Randy Starks — Considering how much defensive tackles are netting at the start of free agency, this signing seems like a downright steal. The Dolphins signed the 24-year old tackle to a 5-year, $21mm deal with $7mm in guarantees. Starks may not be a star (he lost his starting job in Tennessee to Tony Brown) but he’s got the size (6′3″, 314 pounds) and technique to emerge in the Fins scheme.

QB Josh McCown — McCown was a part-time starter in Arizona and Oakland, and may find himself starting in Week One for Miami depending on what else the Dolphins do this preseason. Given a 2-year, $6.25mm contract; McCown is very much a safety valve until John Beck (or someone else not currently on the roster) are ready to take over full-time. This isn’t a major financial commitment, nor should it be considering McCown has never finished a season with a passer rating above 74.9.

WR Ernest Wilford — Wilford was deemed expendable by the Jaguars after the acquisitions of Jerry Porter and Troy Williamson; but he quickly found a new home in Miami signing a 4-year, $13mm deal with $6mm in guarantees. Last year, Wilford caught 45 passes for 518 yards while scoring three times. He’s not a difference maker per se, but his addition will help stabilize the intermediate passing game. Wilford is a big (6′4″, 218 pounds) receiver with loads of starting experience, and will compliment the speedy Ted Ginn Jr.

TE Sean Ryan — Ryan is another long-time Parcells favorite. Signed to a one-year deal, this is more about bringing in a high character guy that Parcells thinks will help the locker room as well as special teams. Ryan isn’t going to be asked to do much offensively; he has a whopping 9 career receptions in four seasons. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

NT Jason Ferguson – Ferguson just didn’t fit into Wade Phillips attacking scheme in Dallas, but should have a place in Dallas’ system. The Cowboys traded Ferguson to Miami today, reuniting him with Parcells for the third time in his 12-year career. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

These moves probably are just the beginning as Parcells, GM Jeff Ireland and the coaching staff look to fundamentally alter the DNA of this team and return the Dolphins to prominence.

The premier free agent offensive tackle is off the market, as Flozell Adams has re-signed with the Dallas Cowboys for a reported 6-year, $42 million deal with $15mm in guarantees. Adams has been a Pro Bowler in four of the last five seasons and anchors an offensive line that helped the Cowboys field one of the most explosive (and balanced) offenses in the league. Adams was a candidate for the Cowboys franchise tag, but they opted to tag safety Ken Hamlin instead. They obviously bet that Adams would give them first dibs at signing him; and the Cowboys gamble was rewarded.

With Jordan Gross (Carolina) and Stacy Andrews (Cincinnati) franchised and now Adams signed; there are really no top caliber options in free agency for teams needing tackle help.

So who benefits from this deal?

• Adams — the man gets his $$$$
• The Cowboys — they keep their best offensive lineman intact
• Maurice Williams, Wayne Gandy, Fred Miller and the other free agent tackles — Supply and demand at play
• Jake Long — the pre-eminent college tackle should now be assured of a top 5 position in April

A lot of people are scratching their heads today. On the eve of free agency, the Oakland Raiders have signed Tommy Kelly to a 7-year, $50.5mm deal, making him — wait for it — the HIGHEST PAID DEFENSIVE TACKLE IN LEAGUE HISTORY. Yes, you heard that right folks…the Raiders signed the relatively unknown lineman for more money ($18mm guaranteed) than any lineman to ever suit up in the league.

So who is Tommy Kelly? He’s 6′6″, 300 pound defensive end that’s going to move inside to play undertackle in place of retired Warren Sapp. As you can see from his measurables, Kelly is built more like a defensive tackle; and the Raiders obviously think he can flourish inside. That said, Kelly’s best season was 2006 when he logged 68 tackles and 3.5 sacks. Last year, Kelly started six games but tore his ACL and was lost for the second half of the season.

If you think the Raiders overpaid for Kelly’s services, you’re not alone. Adam Schefter remarked on tonight’s NFL Total Access that a number of personnel executives were stunned by the signing. Now, if Kelly turns out to be a Pro Bowl caliber defensive tackle, the deal would be justified.

Cory Redding REDUX? Before Raiders fans get too excited, let’s remember what happened to Lions fans last season. A year ago, the Lions signed Cory Redding to a monster deal, making him the highest paid lineman. Lions fans pointed toward Redding’s solid 2006 (47 tackles, 8 sacks) and argued that Redding was on the verge of becoming a dominant young tackle. Well, a year later Redding logged a whopping 37 tackles and ONE SACK in 16 starts for one of the worst defenses in the league. This deal sure smells a lot like that one, doesn’t it?

Who benefits? That’s an easy one…any defensive tackle that’s up for a new contract benefits. Imagine the dance of joy going on at Tommie Harris’ house tonight. Think of how much the Titans are going to have to pay Albert Haynesworth if they want him to sign a multi-year extension instead of the one year franchise tender.

If there’s one lesson to take from this [aside from Al Davis’ growing senility], it’s that this year’s free agent class is going to land huge contracts by historical standards. With the rising salary cap combined with an unprecedented amount of salary cap room; teams are flush with cash and will find reasons to spend their money.

While it’s true that two of this year’s top options at tight end were franchised:

• Dallas Clark in Indianapolis
• L.J. Smith in Philadelphia

…there are a number of viable options remaining at the TE position. Whether you want a proven, pass-catching stud with some injury questions (Alge Crumpler) or a blocking beast (Kyle Brady) or something in between (Marcus Pollard); there are choices. Given the breadth of available free agents, expect a lot of movement for very reasonable financial terms.

The Top Tight Ends on the Market

1. Alge Crumpler (6′2″, 264 pounds, 30 years old) – The seven year veteran is the gem of the free agent market; but recent injury concerns might keep him from reaping top dollar. Crumpler is a perennial Pro Bowler and actually managed to make Michael Vick look like a real NFL passer at times. Even though he only started 10 games last year, Crumpler caught 42 passes for 444 yards and 5 TDs. Crumpler also can stretch the field; averaging 13.3 yards per catch over his career, and logging catches of 40 or more yards in all but one season. Expect Crumpler to visit several teams before signing a multi-year deal as a starter for a playoff contender.
2. Bo Scaife (6′3″, 249 pounds, 27 years old) – Scaife is a restricted free agent and probably isn’t leaving Tennessee. But he’s young and sure handed; making it entirely possible some team will sign him to an offer sheet. Expect Scaife to re-sign with Tennessee with a multi-year deal.
3. Ben Utecht (6′6″, 251 pounds, 26 years old) — Everyone knows about Dallas Clark, but Utecht is quietly a valuable part of the Colts offensive attack. Not only has he caught 68 passes over the last two seasons, but he’s averaged better than 11 yards per reception. Although he’s a restricted free agent, his age and versatility make him an attractive option for a team looking at upgrading their starter without breaking the bank.
4. Eric Johnson (6′3″, 252 pounds, 28 years old) – Johnson, when healthy, is a solid pass catcher but lacks explosiveness (career 9.1 yards per catch). He’s also failed to play a full season yet in his career. That said, he caught 48 passes in 12 starts last year as a Saint, and will get an opportunity to make plays for some team in 2008.

The (Near) Complete List

It’s the glory position of the league, and as a result it’s rarely the glory position of NFL free agency. Teams simply don’t make a habit of letting starting caliber QBs leave without compensation. Does this mean it’s impossible to find a quality starter in free agency? Absolutely not, just ask the New Orleans Saints (Drew Brees).

This year, there don’t appear to be any long-term answers in free agency assuming the Browns don’t let Derek Anderson walk [which we don’t expect], but a number of veterans with starting experience will land in new cities and have a shot at playing time in 2008.

A number of potential free agents were quickly re-signed by their incumbent teams:

• Rex Grossman signed a one-year deal to remain with the Bears. He will compete in camp against Kyle Orton (signed through 2009) in training camp
• Shaun Hill signed a three-year deal to stay in San Francisco. The 49ers also picked up the option on Alex Smith; leaving the door open for another possible camp competition

The Top Quarterbacks on the Market

1. Derek Anderson (6′6″, 230 pounds, 24 years old) — Anderson is a restricted free agent and the Browns have already offered him a 3-year, $20mm extension. Anderson emerged last season from a murky training camp competition and was the surprise of the league. He threw for 29 TDs and almost 4,000 yards while earning a Pro Bowl alternate nod. By re-signing Anderson, the Browns could keep Brady Quinn as the backup; giving them two young potential franchise passers; something few teams can match.
2. Todd Collins (6′4″, 225 pounds, 36 years old) – If you needed any indication of how weak this year’s FA class is, look no further than the fact Collins — a 36 year old journeyman — appears to be the best option. Collins started in place of the injured Jason Campbell late in the 2007 season and rolled up a 106.4 passer rating on the way to three straight victories and a playoff berth. Expect Collins to re-sign in Washington on a two- or three-year deal.
3. Daunte Culpepper (6′4″, 260 pounds, 31 years old) — It’s hard to believe Culpepper had the best fantasy season in QB history just a few years ago. But after seven seasons in Minnesota, Culpepper is possibly looking at his 3rd team in as many seasons. He should be 100% healthy (he tore his ACL in 2006) but needs to re-commit to his conditioning. No other QB has the pedigree Culpepper does; but therein lies the problem. Culpepper doesn’t see himself as a backup; which is probably what most GMs do.
4. Billy Volek (6′2″, 214 pounds, 31 years old) — Volek played sparingly as Philip Rivers backup the last two seasons but acquitted himself reasonably well as the fill-in starter in Tennessee. In 2004, his only significant starting time, he threw for 2,486 yards and 18 TDs on 61% completions in just 8 starts. Volek isn’t going to get a starting job; but he’s an intriguing backup that would give some team an above average fill-in option.
5. Byron Leftwich (6′5″, 250 pounds, 28 years old) — Think Leftwich should be higher on this list? Quite possibly, but what does it say that the woeful Atlanta Falcons felt better with Joey Harrington and Chris Redman under center. Leftwich is only 28 years old, has years of starting experience, and is a career 59% passer. But, he’s not in great shape, has a slow release and is best suited playing out of the shotgun. He’s too young and too talented not to land somewhere; but will it be a spot where he can compete for the top job?

The (Near) Complete List

Offensive tackle is a glamour position and, as a result, teams are always on the hunt for starters as well as depth. You might think that meant a scarcity of free agents; but that’s not typically the case. It can often be cost prohibitive for a team to keep its offensive line intact; and as a result there are usually a number of tackles available to the highest bidder. This year, two of the three elite prospects have been franchised: Jordan Gross (Carolina) and Stacy Andrews (Cincinnati); but veteran Pro Bowler Flozell Adams is on the market.

The Top Offensive Tackles on the Market

1. Flozell Adams (6′7″, 340 pounds, 32 years old) — Adams has been a Pro Bowler in four of the last five seasons and is an integral part of the Cowboys’ offensive juggernaut. It’s hard to imagine the Cowboys will let Adams walk, but the team only has a few days left before the start of free agency. Adams is a punishing run blocker and, while not an elite pass blocker, has improved his technique to the point of being a plus player in pass protection, too. If the Cowboys decide not to re-sign Adams, he will have teams lining up to make him their new left tackle.
2. David Stewart (6′7″, 318 pounds, 25 years old) – Stewart is a restricted free agent, and the Titans have the cap room to match any offer for him. At just 25 years old, Stewart has started at right tackle for the last two seasons in Tennessee, and improved his play dramatically from year to year. Stewart has a mean streak and, while he plays stiff from time to time, generally puts himself in the right position on both running and passing downs. Expect Stewart to remain in Tennessee, either via the one-year tender or ideally a new, multi-year extension.
3. Sean Locklear (6′4″, 308 pounds, 26 years old) – Locklear is another good bet to re-sign with his current team (Seattle); but some team would do well to try to lure him away. He’s started 42 games already and has held down the right tackle spot with ease; despite initial questions about whether he was better suited to play guard in the NFL. Locklear is more of a finesse player than his counterpart Walter Jones, but gets the job done nonetheless.
4. Max Starks (6′8″, 337 pounds, 26 years old) – Starks was given the transition tag by Pittsburgh, but that only provides them the right to match another offer. If they choose not to match the deal, the would not receive any draft compensation. Starks has his flaws, but his upside is considerable. The Steelers running game was far more productive when Starks was healthy in 2006, and struggled when Starks was hobbled last year. Expect the Steelers to retain Starks’ services unless someone comes along and breaks the bank.
5. Maurice Williams (6′5″, 302 pounds, 29 years old) — Maurice Williams started his career as a tackle, but moved inside last year when Tony Pashos joined the Jaguars. Williams played well inside and many teams may view him as a plus-guard. We believe Williams can still be an effective right tackle for any number of teams; and will try to land a job at OT because of the financial difference. Regardless of what position he plays, Williams’ services should be in demand.
6. Damien Woody (6′3″, 340 pounds, 30 years old) – Once considered a Pro Bowl caliber center, Woody has played tackle and guard in recent years. It’s that versatility which makes Woody an intriguing prospect this year; but he must prove to potential suitors that he can keep his weight down and stay healthy. We expect Woody to take the money, versus playing for a contender. If someone like Miami were to offer him a big contract at either guard or tackle, we wouldn’t be surprised.

The (Near) Complete List

Fantasy owners may not draft offensive lineman, but the behemoth guys up front can make all the difference when it comes to a productive offense. Offensive lineman worth don’t come cheaply, and teams are constantly searching for ways to upgrade their lines, regardless of how good the current unit may be.

Today, let’s look at the interior lineman; the centers and offensive guards.

The Top Centers on the Market

Centers are the quarterbacks of the line. They make the line calls and shift adjustments; all while making sure they don’t botch the snap to the signal caller.

1. Jeff Faine (6′3″, 291 pounds, 26 years old) — Faine was supposed to be an anchor of the rebuilt Cleveland Browns line, but after the team acquired LeCharles Bentley in 2006 [at the time considered the league’s top center], he was jettisoned and ended up landing in New Orleans. Over the last two seasons, Faine has played at a high level and proven himself among the better young centers in the league. Expect some team to throw big dollars Faine’s way; possibly making him the highest paid center in the league.
2. Jason Brown (6′3″, 320 pounds, 24 years old) — Brown is a restricted free agent, and it would be surprising if the Ravens let him go considering the other changes on their aging offensive line. Only 24 years old, Brown worked his way into the starting lineup in 2006 and became a fixture in 2007; at guard. Brown has the rare ability to play at a high level at both guard and center and could, therefore, be signed to an offer sheet by any number of teams.
3. Rex Hadnot (6′2″, 325 pounds, 26 years old) — Hadnot became a starter as a rookie and has never looked back. Through the Dolphins ups and downs, Hadnot has been a durable fixture; starting 55 straight games. Despite his reliability, the new regime appears intent on letting Hadnot move on. Given his age and experience, Hadnot should have little trouble landing a 4- or 5-year deal as a potential starter.
4. Jeremy Newberry (6′5″, 315 pounds, 31 years old) — Newberry spent a decade in San Francisco before jumping across the bay to Oakland last season. When healthy, Newberry can anchor a line with a mean streak but the intelligence to manage a complex offensive line set. However, at 31 years old, Newberry is no longer at his peak and is no stranger to serious injuries.

The Top Guards on the Market

Guards used to be the forgotten men of the line, but in recent years guards have started earning enormous contracts in free agency. This year looks to be no different, with Alan Faneca being the most coveted offensive lineman at any position.

1. Alan Faneca (6′5″, 307 pounds, 31 years old) – Alan Faneca is the cream of the free agent OL crop. A punishing blocker with the athleticism to pull out as a lead blocker. Faneca has a mean streak and is extremely durable, starting 153 of the Steelers last 158 games. After a tenuous holdout last offseason, Faneca returned to the Steelers under the promise that he wouldn’t be franchised again in 2008. Now he gets to test the free agent market and looks to land one of the largest contracts for a lineman in league history.
2. Justin Smiley (6′3″, 311 pounds, 26 years old) – Smiley missed the second half of last season with a shoulder injury but should be 100% healthy and ready to work out for interested teams. A starter for most of his career in San Francisco, Smiley is a solid if not spectacular guard; particularly as a pass blocker. Given the projected salary cap and the amount of money teams have available, don’t be surprised if Smiley lands a big, multi-year deal.
3. Mike Wahle (6′6″, 304 pounds, 30 years old) – Wahle is a 10-year veteran that’s been starting since his second year in the league. An anchor for years in Green Bay, Wahle signed with Carolina three seasons ago and started 45 of 48 regular season games. But Carolina released Wahle because of salary cap concerns. Don’t let his release fool you, Wahle remains a quality starter and will garner a multi-year deal on a playoff contending team.
4. Jacob Bell (6′4″, 295 pounds, 26 years old) — Bell is a four-year veteran and 2-year starter; playing an important role in the Titans rebuilt offensive line. Given his age and demeanor (he’s considered a high character guy), it would be surprising if the Titans let him get away. The Titans have a boatload of money under the cap, and Bell is the kind of young, productive player who should be a priority.
5. Jake Scott (6′5″, 295 pounds, 26 years old) — Jake Scott has been a starter since his rookie season, for arguably the team’s most consistent offensive line in Indianapolis. So why isn’t he higher on this list? For two reasons. One, Scott is technically sound but can be overpowered. Two, the Colts have proven that their blocking scheme is greater than the sum of its parts. Either way, with Ryan Lilja re-signed it’s possible the Colts would let Scott walk. Don’t be surprised if he lands a big contract from another team.

The (Near) Complete List of Guards and Centers