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September 30, 2008

Peter Principle alive and well in NFL coaching circles

In 1968, Dr. Laurence Peter and his partner Raymond Hull coined the term “Peter Principle” which established the idea that an employee working for an organization will continue to rise through the ranks until the reach a point of inadequacy. At which point they will no longer rise beyond that level. In turn, organizations are littered with people doing jobs they’re not really qualified to do.

Well, a pair of NFL owners appears hellbent on putting that theory to the test.

  • Oakland RaidersLane Kiffin has been put out of his misery in Oakland and, according to several sources, offensive line coach Tom Cable is the favorite to succeed him. While Cable has a long history as an offensive line coach, you’ll excuse me if I have my doubts he’s the guy to right this ship. In his only prior head coaching experience, 4 seasons at Idaho, Cable amassed an 11-35 record. Sounds to me like a guy that can coach up an offensive line but PROBABLY isn’t the guy to turn around a moribund NFL franchise.
  • St. Louis RamsScott Linehan needed to go, I’m not arguing with that. But replacing Linehan with Jim Haslett? Sure, Haslett has NFL head coaching experience and a reasonably respectable 45-51 record in six seasons in New Orleans. But how can the Rams players respond to Haslett as head coach? As the team’s defensive coordinator, the team has been abysmal:
    • 2006 — 23rd in yards allowed, 28th in points allowed
    • 2007 — 21st in yards allowed, 31st in points allowed
    • 2008 — 32nd in yards allowed, 32nd in points allowed

Do either of these men seem like logical bets to turn around their respective franchises? It makes you wonder whether the Raiders and Rams ownership would’ve been better off making a change in the offseason. I guess time will tell if I’m being too critical, but somehow I doubt it, and I fear Raiders and Rams fans will be the ones paying the price.

September 24, 2008

No more Millen’ about…the Lions act in a moment of clarity

Filed under: DET, FBG, Detroit, Matt Millen, GM, Fired, NFL, Fantasy, News, Footballguys, NFC North, Lions — Jason Wood @ 11:26 am

FOXSports.com is reporting that Matt Millen is out as the Lions President and General Manager.

The Lions have finally removed team president and GM Matt Millen from his post, FOXSports.com has learned, unseating one of the most criticized executives in Detroit sports history.

Millen was informed of the move Tuesday night during a late-night high-level meeting. Wednesday morning several people within the building confirmed that he had large packing boxes in his office and he made his way around to different employees telling them of the move.

I wouldn’t expect many tears to be shed for Millen today, nor would I think he will care too much. While his track record was abominable, I genuinely don’t believe he TRIED to be so ineffective. Probably doesn’t mean much to the downtrodden Lions fans, but it’s important remember the difference between vilifying the man and chastising the way he did his job.

Now that we’ve gotten that out of the way, let’s review some of the Lions “accomplishments” under his tenure:

  • W/L Record — 31 Ws, 84 Ls [0.270] — An NFL worst since 2001
  • Head Coaches — Four (4)
    • Mornhinweg
    • Jauron [temp]
    • Mariucci
    • Marinelli
  • Starting Quarterbacks — Six (6)
    • Charlie Batch
    • Mike McMahon
    • Ty Detmer
    • Joey Harrington
    • Jeff Garcia
    • Jon Kitna
  • 1,000-Yard Rushers — Two (2)
    • James Stewart (2002 - 1,021 yards)
    • Kevin Jones (2004 - 1,133 yards)
  • 1,000-Yard Receivers — Three (3)
    • Johnnie Morton (2001 - 1,154 yards)
    • Roy Williams (2006 - 1,310 yards)
    • Mike Furrey (2006 - 1,086 yards)
  • Average Defensive Ranking, Points Allowed — 27th
  • Average Defensive Ranking, Yards Allowed – 26th
  • Average Offensive Ranking, Points Scored — 24th
  • Average Offensive Ranking, Yards Gained – 24th
  • Average Turnover Ratio Rank — 22nd

So what happens next? Given the Lions 0-3 start and play on both sides of the ball; probably wholesale changes this offseason. A new GM is going to want coaches he believes in, and he’ll have the juice to trade/release malcontents regardless of their stature, contract status or perceived ability.

WR Divas put on high alert

Filed under: New York, FBG, Plaxico Burress, Suspension, NYG, NFL, NFC East, WR, Fantasy, News, Footballguys, Giants — Jason Wood @ 10:37 am

Wide receivers have, for a long time, been the divas of the NFL. Lithe, fluid athletes who, by definition, play out on islands unto themselves. They are the big play makers, the guys who - when successful - eat up big chunks of yardage in a hurry or come down with spectacular plays when teams need them most.

Being an NFL fan is effectively living with the diva-ish behavior of the position.

Last year was one of the best for top-performing wide receivers; some fantasy pundits called it The Year of the Receiver.

So it’s with a bit of a surprise we’re seeing a league-wide crackdown on the big play divas.

  • Denver’s Brandon Marshall suspended by Roger Goodell
  • Carolina’s Steve Smith suspended by his own team for a fight with a teammate
  • Cincinnati’s Chad Johnson’s bluff was called by the Bengals after he threatened to sit out the season
  • Arizona’s Anquan Boldin wasn’t given any satisfaction despite griping about his role and his paycheck
  • Oakland’s Javon Walker called out by head coach Lane Kiffin for being out of shape and unfocused

Now comes word that the New York Giants have suspended Plaxico Burress for two weeks, for what they’re calling “team insubordination.”

The Giants did not specify why Burress was suspended. FOXSports.com, which first reported the suspension Wednesday, said Burress did not show up for work on Monday and did not telephone or answer phone messages to explain his absence.

What’s surprising about this move is that Burress has been on his best behavior for most of his career in New York. To his credit, he was even relatively calm during this offseason’s contract dispute. While he sat out of training camp with an injury, he let his agent (Drew Rosenhaus) do the talking. Giants GM Jerry Reese was publicly supportive of the need to get Burress a new deal; acknowledging that he’s outplayed his existing contract. And then, prior to the start of the season, the Giants rewarded Burress with a multi-year extension including $11mm in upfront guarantees.

Fantasy owners need to prepare themselves for not one, but two weeks without Plaxico. Fun times to bet your fantasy season on a diva, no?

September 22, 2008

Al Davis’ latest embarrassing episode

Al Davis has, through sheer force of will, carved out a lucrative and influential career as a football executive. While no one can take away his achievements as the operating partner and GM of the Raiders over the last 40-ish years, his more recent actions have bordered on the ridiculous. It wasn’t long ago that Davis tried to revisit the past by naming Art Shell head coach. That worked out well (2-14 in one season back at the helm); and led to Davis doing a complete 180 with his next coaching hire.

Enter Lane Kiffin. Kiffin, the son of famed Bucs defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin, was plucked away from the USC Trojans and became the youngest NFL head coach since the AFL-NFL merger. Kiffin was the Trojans’ offensive coordinator at the time (replacing Norm Chow) and was considered a bright young mind, but extremely inexperienced.

Kiffin now finds himself 5-14 in 1+ seasons at the helm. Rumors are rampant that he’s going to be fired.

But here’s the thing Al Davis needs to ask himself (not that he will of course)…what does firing Kiffin accomplish?

Assuming Kiffin gets the axe before this weekend, he would have a 0.263 winning percentage. Hardly anything to be proud of, but really any different than the status quo in Oakland?

  • 2006 — Art Shell (2-14) = 0.125 percentage
  • 2005 — Norv Turner (4-12) = 0.250 percentage
  • 2004 — Norv Turner (5-11) = 0.3125 percentage
  • 2003 — Bill Callahan (4-12) = 0.250 percentage

You have to go back to the 2002 season (11-5) when Bill Callahan took the Raiders to the Super Bowl, in order to see any ray of light. But let’s not forget that the 2002 team was very much the brainchild of Jon Gruden.

Is there light at the end of the tunnel?

Yes, for Kiffin but not for the Raiders. Until Al Davis steps away from the controls, the Raiders are an impaired franchise. With each passing coaching change, it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy because fewer credible head coaching candidates want to go to work for Davis; knowing they will have little control over football matters. In the meantime, Davis’ unwillingness to invite fresh minds into the scouting process ensures the team will continue to draft poorly and overspend on free agents [How is all that money for Tommy Kelly, Javon Walker, Gibril Wilson and company looking right now?].

But there IS hope for Kiffin.

Kiffin is still extremely young and, by most accounts, a talented offensive mind. I’m sure he’ll have any number of opportunities both in the NFL ranks (perhaps as a position coach) or in college (as an offensive coordinator) and won’t have to do too much in his new role to get another serious look from a more stable NFL franchise.

Kiffin needs to remember two names:

  • Jon Gruden
  • Mike Shanahan

Gruden was so successful in Oakland that Davis couldn’t stand him, and drove Gruden into the hands of the Bucs (who won a Super Bowl under his watch) rather than provide Gruden with the accolades and compensation befitting his achievements as Raiders coach.

And Mike Shanahan, he of the back-to-back Super Bowl titles in Denver, was fired by Davis in his 2nd season as head coach. At the time? The Raiders were 1-3. The rest, is history.

September 16, 2008

Claim or Defame: RB Edition

It’s time for a little fantasy exercise I’m calling CLAIM or DEFAME.

Two weeks into the season and some fantasy owners are pulling their hair out over the disappointing performance of some of their draft choices. This happens each and every year, but the trick is to figure out which early season duds are going to bounce back and become studs versus those who simply are going to fall well short of preseason expectations.

  • If a player got off to a rough start but still looks likely to bounce back…you want to CLAIM him via some savvy trade talks with your league mates.
  • If a player struggled early and no longer looks viable as a fantasy starter…you want to DEFAME him but not before you offload his services to an unsuspecting league owner who foolishly holds out hope said player will rebound.

Running Back Edition

The following fantasy RBs are currently well short of their preseason rankings and ADP. Which, if any, do you think are worth CLAIMING?

  • Steven Jackson, STL (RB24)
  • Edgerrin James, ARI (RB31)
  • Ronnie Brown, MIA (RB32)
  • LaDainian Tomlinson, SD (RB35)
  • Maurice Jones-Drew, JAX (RB36)
  • Jamal Lewis, CLE (RB39)
  • Joseph Addai, IND (RB40)
  • Ryan Grant, GB (RB45)
  • Larry Johnson, KC (RB48)
  • Fred Taylor, JAX (RB51)
  • Laurence Maroney, NE (RB56)
  • Chester Taylor, MIN (RB62)

Think some of these guys are worth trading for? Who do you see bouncing back? Who would you leave well enough alone? Let’s here your thoughts in our Shark Pool.

Claim or Defame: QB Edition

It’s time for a little fantasy exercise I’m calling CLAIM or DEFAME.

Two weeks into the season and some fantasy owners are pulling their hair out over the disappointing performance of some of their draft choices. This happens each and every year, but the trick is to figure out which early season duds are going to bounce back and become studs versus those who simply are going to fall well short of preseason expectations.

  • If a player got off to a rough start but still looks likely to bounce back…you want to CLAIM him via some savvy trade talks with your league mates.
  • If a player struggled early and no longer looks viable as a fantasy starter…you want to DEFAME him but not before you offload his services to an unsuspecting league owner who foolishly holds out hope said player will rebound.

Quarterback Edition

The following fantasy QBs are currently well short of their preseason rankings and ADP. Which, if any, do you think are worth CLAIMING?

  • Ben Roethlisberger, PIT (QB15)
  • David Garrard, JAX (QB18)
  • Matt Hasselbeck, SEA (QB21)
  • Marc Bulger, STL (QB23)
  • Derek Anderson, CLE (QB24)
  • Carson Palmer, CIN (QB33)

Think some of these guys are worth trading for? Who do you see bouncing back? Who would you leave well enough alone? Let’s here your thoughts in our Shark Pool.

September 15, 2008

Brandon Marshall: Now that’s how you come back from suspension!

To say Brandon Marshall had an eventful offseason would be the understatement of the decade. A “wrestling” accident with his brother led to ligament damage and had everyone wondering whether he would be OK for the 2008 NFL season. He was also arrested for DUI last year and for reckless driving. Commissioner Roger Goodell suspended the enigmatic receiver for three games; which would’ve put a serious crimp in Marshall’s fantasy prospects. But Marshall successfully appealed to the commissioner and his suspension was reduced to one game.

In his absence Eddie Royal broke onto the NFL scene with one of the strongest rookie WR debuts in recent history.

So all eyes were on Marshall in Week Two. Would he bounce right back? Would he be rusty? Would Eddie Royal steal a lot of QB Jay Cutler’s looks?

The answers were YES, NO and NO in that order.

  • 18 receptions
  • 166 yards
  • 1 TD

For those wondering, Marshall’s 18 receptions was NOT an NFL record.

That honor goes to Terrell Owens, who caught 20 receptions against the Chicago Bears in 2000. But Marshall’s 18-reception day WAS the 2nd best tally in league history; tying Tom Fears (1950).

The Pro Football Hall of Fame website has a list of each team’s record holder, if you’re interested in some additional perspective.

September 11, 2008

Rookie RBs off to blazing start

Week One was a banner day for a number of offensive rookies. We singled out the stellar play of WRs DeSean Jackson and Eddie Royal already, but now turn our attention to the rookie RBs; who had equally impressive debuts.

Here are the top 30 fantasy performances by rookie RBs in Week One (1995-2008)

Rank First Last Year Opp Rush Yards TD Rec RecYd TD FPTs
1 LaDainian Tomlinson 2001 WAS 36 113 2 1 12 0 24.5
2 Adrian Peterson 2007 ATL 19 103 0 1 60 1 22.3
3 Cadillac Williams 2005 MIN 27 148 1 0 0 0 20.8
4 Matt Forte 2008 IND 23 123 1 3 18 0 20.1
5 Chris Johnson 2008 JAX 15 93 0 3 34 1 18.7
6 Edgerrin James 1999 BUF 26 112 1 4 14 0 18.6
7 Tiki Barber 1997 PHI 20 88 1 3 32 0 18.0
8 Karim Abdul-Jabbar 1996 NE 26 115 1 0 2 0 17.7
9 Lawrence Phillips 1996 CIN 21 46 2 0 0 0 16.6
10 Ahman Green 1998 PHI 6 100 1 1 -1 0 15.9
11 Marshawn Lynch 2007 DEN 19 90 1 2 9 0 15.9
12 Mike Bell 2006 STL 10 58 1 4 30 0 14.8
13 Kevin Smith 2008 ATL 16 48 1 4 32 0 14.0
14 Ron Dayne 2000 ARI 23 78 1 1 -2 0 13.6
15 Felix Jones 2008 CLE 9 62 1 0 0 0 12.2
16 Reggie Bush 2006 CLE 15 67 0 7 52 0 11.9
17 Robert Edwards 1998 DEN 13 50 1 0 0 0 11.0
18 J.J. Johnson 1999 DEN 14 45 1 0 0 0 10.5
19 Antowain Smith 1997 MIN 7 55 0 5 44 0 9.9
20 Brandon Jacobs 2005 ARI 6 39 1 0 0 0 9.9
21 ReShard Lee 2004 MIN 5 35 1 0 0 0 9.5
22 Tim Hightower 2008 SF 8 13 1 3 21 0 9.4
23 Rob Konrad 1999 DEN 2 7 0 3 26 1 9.3
24 Nick Goings 2001 MIN 25 86 0 0 0 0 8.6
25 Laurence Maroney 2006 BUF 17 86 0 0 0 0 8.6
26 Curtis Enis 1998 JAX 12 77 0 1 7 0 8.4
27 Ray Rice 2008 CIN 22 64 0 3 19 0 8.3
28 Stanley Pritchett 1996 NE 0 0 0 6 77 0 7.7
29 Brandon Jackson 2007 PHI 15 40 0 4 35 0 7.5
30 Kevin Jones 2004 CHI 15 36 0 1 34 0 7.0

Six rookies cracked the top 3, including two top-5 finishes. That’s an impressive start, particularly when you consider Darren McFadden - arguably the top rookie in this class - failed to make the list.

Tampa’s Jeff Garcia: What Gives?

Filed under: Bucs, Tampa Bay, Jeff Garcia, TB, FBG, Brian Griese, Injury, Fantasy, Footballguys, NFC South, QB — Mark Wimer @ 9:45 am

Coach Jon Gruden pulled the rug out from underneath Jeff Garcia on Wednesday, announcing that Brian Griese will lead the Buccaneers in week 2 (and the speculation in the Tampa Bay area press is that the move could be permanent). Gruden offered his reasons for the move as follows:

“I’m a pretty good judge of Jeff Garcia and I’m a big believer in him,” Gruden said in explaining the move. “I just believe that right now, what we’re seeing is not what Jeff Garcia is capable of doing.

“Right now he’s not the same guy that he was. So until I see the ball thrown with the crisp, accurate velocity, the confident swagger that we’re used to seeing, we’re going to let him sit out.”

Garcia hurt his ankle in the season opener and it was really swollen on Monday, evidently, which is part of the reason for this move. But there is more going on here. Here’s my take:

What exactly did coach Gruden expect after the Tampa front office (with input from the coaching staff, no doubt) ardently chased after Brett Favre during the offseason? At one point, Garcia described himself as a “dead man walking” in respect to his future with the team. Now, coach Gruden calls him out on the carpet for not having a “confident swagger”? That seems pretty callous from where I am sitting.

Yes, pro football is a tough game for tough guys, but torpedoing your starting QB after one rough game seems pretty extreme to me. There has to be more going on here than we know about, folks. Garcia may have clashed with Gruden behind closed doors during the preseason (or someone else on the staff) during the Favre saga. Or maybe, Garcia just got sick of being under appreciated.

We’ll see how Griese does on Sunday, but if you’ve rostered Jeff Garcia I suggest that you pick up Griese if you have room on your roster for him. Garcia may be benched if Griese does well vs. the Falcons.

September 10, 2008

Is Vince Young’s mom really helping?

Filed under: Tennessee, FBG, Felicia Young, TEN, Depression, Vince Young, NFL, QB, News, Footballguys, AFC South, Titans — Jason Wood @ 11:26 am

Let’s be honest, the NFL is a game built around toughness. Whether it’s fair or not isn’t in question, it’s the reality of the game we all love to watch and participate in via our fantasy leagues. Players are expected to play through pain. Iron men like Brett Favre spend years taking heavy pain medication to gut out games, and when he comes clean about it, we salute him for his courage and toughness. Peyton Manning has knee surgery and less than two months later is back leading his team. Shawne Merriman disregarded the medical opinions of some of the country’s best doctors in order to suit up for San Diego last week; and it only helped to increase fandom’s opinion of him.

But what about mental pain? Are we as quick to applaud players when they’re dealing with psychological issues? The world saluted Terrell Owens for playing in the Super Bowl after suffering a bone break; but were they as supportive of him when news came out about a potential depression that resulted in an accidental overdose? Were Philadelphia Eagles fans praising Shawn Andrews to “get healthy” when he missed training camp with clinical depression? Not so much.

Now we have the Vince Young situation to deal with. By now you’ve read the reports. Vince Young was distraught during the Week One game against the Jaguars (a game the Titans won by the way), and that night Titans officials involved the police in a search for Young after they couldn’t reach him via cellphone.

Rumors have swirled over the last 48 hours about his mental state, his passion for the game, and his future with the Titans.

According to several reports, including ESPN:

Young was the subject of a four-hour search Monday night by Nashville police, who were called by Titans coach Jeff Fisher after Young’s family members expressed concern about Young’s “emotional well-being,” according to police.

Major Adams, Young’s agent, went on the defensive and denied any depression-related issues:

Vince Young’s agent, Major Adams, told ESPN reporter George Smith that he didn’t know why the story has taken on a life of its own.

Adams said he called Young’s friend’s house after hearing that Young was missing. Adams said the quarterback was upbeat and watching the Monday night games, and confirmed that Young was without his cell phone.

As for reports about depression or Young’s fragile emotional state, Adams told Smith they’re “unfounded.”

“It’s the first time I’ve heard that. I know he’s not battling depression,” Adams said. “He’s fine mentally. I think it’s a misunderstanding and misinformation.”

Which brings us to Vince Young’s mother…

Felicia Young and her son are close; that’s a well established fact. Like many athletes, Young has gone out of his way to credit his mother’s influence on his life. It’s only natural that a loving mother would have strong opinions about the well-being of her child. But should she air those concerns in the media? 

From the Tennessean newspaper:

  • “Vince has gone through a whole lot as a young person,” Felicia Young said. “And I think he has done pretty well up to this point. But it is hard, all he is going through right now. He’s hurting inside and out.”
  • “What would you think, if you were tired of being ridiculed and persecuted and talked about and not being treated very well, what would you do? What kind of decision would you make?” Felicia Young said. “He may not want to deal with it (all), but you have to get to that point before you make that decision first.”

Shouldn’t Felicia understand that acknowledging his emotional state actually serves as a disservice to her son? Again, I’m NOT saying it should be that way, but at what point do you have to accept the reality of your given situation? In the NFL, you can get arrested and not lose your job; whereas I would be given my walking papers most likely. That’s MY given situation. On the flip side, if I had some kind of physical or mental illness, I’m betting my employers would be pretty understanding as I dealt through the process. In the NFL, where you have to be TOUGH (whatever that means), it’s sadly difficult if not impossible to brush off reports of depression or lack of passion easily.

So what do you think? Are you concerned about Vince Young’s football future? Do you think this situation should’ve been treated differently by the Titans, his agent, his mother, his friends? Let’s hear your thoughts.

September 9, 2008

Did Matt Hasselbeck kick the football gods’ dog?

hasselbeck.png…Deion Branch

…Bobby Engram

…Ben Obomanu

Before the NFL season got underway Matt Hasselbeck was without three of his top four receiving options. Despite the unlikely triumverate of injuries, the Seahawks seemed OK thanks to the presence of veteran Nate Burleson; who was set to maintain the WR1 role until Branch and/or Engram were healthy.

And then Nate Burleson tore his ACL in Week One. Done for the season.

Just to recap, one week into the season and Matt Hasselbeck is without his TOP FOUR WIDE RECEIVERS. That’s astounding, even for a league known for injuries.

So again I ask, did Matt Hasselbeck kick the Football Gods’ dog?

*** Note: Special thanks to http://kickthedogmakeitbark.com/kickthedog.jpg which provided the original image that was Photoshopped to make this parody picture

Eddie Royal catches on quickly

Filed under: FBG, Eddie Royal, Rookie, Denver, DEN, NFL, AFC West, WR, Fantasy, News, Footballguys, Broncos — Jason Wood @ 10:18 pm

DeSean Jackson didn’t have the best rookie debut in the last five years for long. A day after Jackson became the first rookie WR in 5 years to go for 100-yards in his first game, Broncos rookie WR Eddie Royal came out against division rival Oakland and eviscerated the Raiders vaunted defensive backs.

  • 9 receptions
  • 146 yards
  • 16.2 yards per reception
  • 1 TD

Royal’s fantasy performance ranks among the best rookie debuts in the modern era:

Highest Scoring Rookie WR Debuts (1995-Present)

Rank First Last Year Team Opp Rec Yds YPR TD FPTs
1 Anquan Boldin 2003 ARI DET 10 217 21.7 2 33.7
2 Randy Moss 1998 MIN TB 4 95 23.8 2 21.5
3 Eddie Royal 2008 DEN OAK 9 146 16.2 1 21.5
4 Charles Rogers 2003 DET ARI 4 38 9.5 2 17.0
5 Marvin Harrison 1996 IND ARI 6 85 14.2 1 14.5
6 Deion Branch 2002 NE PIT 6 83 13.8 1 14.3
7 JaJuan Dawson 2000 CLE JAX 6 83 13.8 1 14.3
8 Calvin Johnson 2007 DET OAK 4 70 17.5 1 13.0
9 Javon Walker 2002 GB ATL 4 56 14.0 1 12.7
10 Donte Stallworth 2002 NO TB 4 63 15.8 1 12.3
11 Marques Colston 2006 NO CLE 4 49 12.2 1 10.9
12 DeSean Jackson 2008 PHI STL 6 106 17.7 0 10.6
13 Tim Dwight 1998 ATL CAR 1 44 44.0 1 10.4
14 Oronde Gadsden 1998 MIA IND 1 44 44.0 1 10.4
15 Torry Holt 1999 STL BAL 3 36 12.0 1 9.6

Shawne is not a Merry-man

Filed under: San Diego, FBG, Defense, Shawne Merriman, SDG, NFL, IDP, Injury, News, Footballguys, AFC West, Chargers — Jason Wood @ 10:08 pm

All world defensive force Shawne Merriman announced his intention to undergo surgery to repair his two torn knee ligaments; and will be lost for the 2008 season. In many ways, this seemed an inevitability after Merriman was told by several of the country’s best doctors that surgery was a necessity. Despite the corroborating medical opinions, Merriman attempted to play through the injuries and started for the Chargers in their Week One loss to the Panthers. Unfortunately, the pain was too much for Merriman and he’s done a 180 on the need for surgery.

A.J. Smith was understandly somber about the news:

“Shawne informed me he did not feel right and thought it best to shut it down,” Chargers general manager A.J. Smith said in a statement. “The road to winning the AFC West just got more difficult, but not impossible. Nothing is impossible. Shawne is a great player and an inspirational leader. He will be missed. We wish him a successful surgery and a speedy recovery.”

Fantasy owners are no doubt dejected as Merriman was the key cog in a consensus top-3 fantasy defense.

September 7, 2008

When fantasy turns to nightmare: Tom Brady done for the season

Filed under: Tom Brady, New England, ACL, NE, Adam Schefter, FBG, NFL, Injury, News, Footballguys, AFC East, Patriots — Jason Wood @ 9:31 pm

Adam Schefter is reporting that Tom Brady is done for the season with a torn ACL. A sad and bitterly ironic end to the reigning MVP’s season. Following an offseason where Brady dodged the media and didn’t appear in any preseason action, the rumors were rampant that his secretive foot injury was worse than we expected. When the Patriots initial injury report came out this Wednesday, it was disclosed that Brady had a broken bone in his foot. Despite that, Brady suited up for Week One and seemed ready to play.

And then, in the blink of an eye, he was hit on the knee by Kansas City Chiefs’ safety Bernard Pollard.

This isn’t just a loss for the New England Patriots, it’s a loss for the entire league as Brady has become one of the faces of the league. From a fantasy perspective, 8%-10% of the world’s fantasy owners just lost their first round pick; and are probably feeling sick to their stomach to have gone against the grain and drafted a QB in the 1st round. A lot of good it did them.

So what does this mean for the Patriots going forward?

  • QB Situation – For now, the Patriots will go with backup Matt Cassel. Cassel played reasonably well today (13/18 for 152 yards and a TD to Randy Moss) and has been interning under Brady for years. It wasn’t long ago that Brady was the inexperienced, relatively unknown backup to Drew Bledsoe but can the Patriots catch lightning in a bottle twice? If Cassel falters, the Pats may look toward Chris Simms, who is allegedly ready to sign with New England tomorrow presuming he passes his physical.
  • WR Randy Moss — Moss is a special player but he’s also someone that needs to be focused and have his mind right. Will this devastating injury cause Moss’ focus to linger? Time will tell but it’s now unrealistic to expect Moss to come anywhere close to last year’s numbers, which makes his status as a 1st round fantasy pick this year a losing proposition most likely. The good news is Moss caught a TD pass from Cassel today; they seemed to be on the same page.
  • WR Wes Welker — Welker is a possession receiver and it would seem the Patriots will now alter their run/pass ratio considerably to take some of the pressure off the inexperience QB. Welker could suffer the most from this injury.
  • RB Laurence Maroney — Maroney may benefit from this IF (a big IF) the Patriots passing game doesn’t fall completely off a cliff. The Pats are a versatile team and Bill Belichick alters the scheme to suit the teams strengths and weaknesses. To that end, I would expect the Patriots to increase their rushing attempts and pare back the passing attempts to create balance and a more conservative, ball-control offense.

How do you see this playing out? Does this dramatically alter your expectations for Moss, Welker, Gaffney, Maroney and company? If not, do you have that much confidence in the Patriots coaches or are you simply a fan of Matt Cassel? Let’s hear your thoughts…

DeSean Jackson finds himself in esteemed company

Filed under: Rookie, Philadelphia, Anquan Boldin, PHI, FBG, DeSean Jackson, WR, Stats, Footballguys, NFC East, Eagles — Jason Wood @ 8:51 pm

DeSean Jackson had an auspicious debut with the Eagles, catching 6 receptions for 106 yards, not to mention a monstrous punt return. Jackson looked extremely comfortable in the complex West Coast offense, he ran crisp routes, got off the line of scrimmage, and went up and got a number of balls in tight coverage. It’s impossible to judge his long-term potential on the merits of a single game, but it’s hard to argue that he looks like the real deal.

For those wondering, this marks the first 100-yard receiving game by a rookie in Week One in five years. 

Q: Can anyone name the last rookie to go over the 100-yard mark in Week One?

A: ANQUAN BOLDIN

I don’t need to remind fantasy owners how Boldin’s rookie season turned out:

  • 101 receptions
  • 1,377 yards
  • 8 TDs
  • WR4

Jackson isn’t likely to finish as a top-10 fantasy receiver, but he stands an excellent chance at going over the 1,000-yard mark and putting up top-25 numbers; making him an absolute draft day steal for those owners savvy enough to take a flier on him over the last few weeks.

Jason Peters: A big help to Marshawn Lynch?

Filed under: Tackle, Jason Peters, Buffalo Bills, BUF, Marshawn Lynch, OL, FBG, RB, Fantasy, Footballguys, AFC East, Bills — Jason Wood @ 7:29 am

The Buffalo Bills got great news this week as Jason Peters, their mammoth stud left tackle, ended his preseason-long holdout. Peters has been dissatisfied with his contract after emerging as one of the better young tackles in the game. Regardless of his motivations, it stands to reason that the Bills are far better off with him in the lineup than without him.

I’m not going to argue that Peters helps the Bills tremendously; he obviously does.

But just some food for thought, take a look at last year’s splits for Marshawn Lynch:

Direction Rush Yds YPR TD
LeftSideline 19 55 2.9 0
LeftSide 99 359 3.6 2
Middle 59 179 3.0 2
RightSide 83 420 5.1 3
RightSideline 20 102 5.1 0

When Lynch ran to the left side (Peters’ side) he averaged less than 3.5 yards per rush and scored only 2 TD; whereas Lynch fared much better running to the right side. Does this mean Peters won’t help? No, but it also shows that, in and of himself, Peters return may not have as dramatic an impact on Lynch’s production as some have hinted.

September 6, 2008

Myth of “Vulturing” Goal-line Carries…a Denver Case Study

An interesting discussion is taking place in our Shark Pool regarding the role Andre Hall will play in the Denver backfield rotation. The conversation started when forum member Deuce’s Wild linked to a comment by KFFL that speculated Andre Hall might see “12 to 15 touches including goal line touches” despite Selvin Young being the nominal “starter.”

The conversation went in a lot of directions but the issue of one back “vulturing” the short yardage and goal line touches from the team’s primary back was brought up repeatedly.

While I don’t deny that Andre Hall has as much potential as any Denver back to make a fantasy impact, I cringe at how often fantasy owners throw out the idea of a goal line vulture. SO MANY fantasy owners justify the selection of a team’s backup or fullback with the idea that they could be finding a hidden source of cheap TD production.

Do goal line vultures exist? OF COURSE.

Are they common? NOT AT ALL. You can count on one hand the number of runners who get the preponderance of their team’s goal line carries but otherwise don’t play a major role in the offense. 

And more to the point, there is little evidence to suggest Mike Shanahan is a fan of giving one back goal line carries at the expense of his primary rusher.

Here is a list of all the Denver RBs that had at least one goal line carry (i.e., opponent’s 5-yard line and in) between 2002-2007:

First Last Year GLCs GLYds GLTD Rus Yds TDs
Clinton Portis 2002 15 24 9 274 1509 15
Mike Anderson 2002 5 7 1 83 385 2
Olandis Gary 2002 2 1 1 37 147 1
Reuben Droughns 2002 1 1 1 4 11 1
Clinton Portis 2003 16 15 6 290 1593 14
Quentin Griffin 2003 3 0 0 93 342 0
Mike Anderson 2003 13 14 3 70 257 3
Reuben Droughns 2003 0 0 0 6 14 0
Reuben Droughns 2004 11 18 3 275 1240 6
Quentin Griffin 2004 4 -1 0 84 311 2
Tatum Bell 2004 2 1 0 75 396 3
Garrison Hearst 2004 1 4 1 20 81 1
Mike Anderson 2005 25 31 9 240 1014 12
Tatum Bell 2005 9 5 2 172 919 8
Ron Dayne 2005 1 1 0 52 270 1
Cecil Sapp 2005 1 2 0 5 21 0
Kyle Johnson 2005 1 3 1 4 9 1
Tatum Bell 2006 6 3 1 233 1031 2
Mike Bell 2006 17 12 8 157 677 8
Cecil Sapp 2006 0 0 0 10 80 0
Kyle Johnson 2006 0 0 0 5 30 0
Travis Henry 2007 7 10 3 167 691 4
Selvin Young 2007 7 -4 0 140 727 1
Andre Hall 2007 3 -5 0 44 216 2
Cecil Sapp 2007 4 9 2 18 59 2
  • 2002 – Clinton Portis was the workhorse and got the majority of the goal line carries (15 of 23). Mike Anderson had about 1/3rd as many total carries and, not coincidentally, had 1/3 of the goal line carries that Portis did
  • 2003 — This is the one year where it appears Shanahan wanted to use a goal line specialist. Anderson had 13 goal line carries despite having just 70 total rushing attempts, nearly the same number of GL carries that Clinton Portis had in a monst 1,593 yard season. The key to remember here is that Portis scored 14 TDs in 16 goal line rushes, while Anderson scored 2 TDs in 13 GL attempts.
  • 2004 – The unexpected Reuben Droughns takes over the lead rushing duties and, what do you know, ends up with the majority (11 of 18) goal line carres.
  • 2005 – Mike Anderson comes back into the mix and gets a whopping 25 goal line carries, among the most in the league over the last five years. Although he and Tatum Bell were in a committee, Anderson was the lead carrier and, not coincidentally, had the majority of GL carries (25 of 37).
  • 2006 — An odd year, as Tatum Bell led the team with 233 carries but Mike Bell had 17 of the teams 23 GL carries. Bell wasn’t a specialist though, he had 157 rushes and it was a true committee situation.
  • 2007 — The first thing that strikes me is Mike Shanahan and the Broncos didn’t have a capable short yardage option last year. But it’s hard to judge the results with such a small sample size. Travis Henry and Selvin Young had the majority of the team’s rushing attempts, and not coindicentally had 2/3rds of the team’s goal line attempts as a result.

The conclusion? Don’t simply buy into the notion of a backup RB being used to vulture goal line carries, even when its’ a team whose beat writers may be espousing that very issue. Mike Shanahan will try anything that works. But it’s pretty clear that Andre Hall is MUCH more likely to be the team’s main ball carrier, period, than he is to be someone who sees just a handful of touches each game but gets most of the Broncos TD opportunities. Shanny gives his main guy the chance to punch it in, more often than not.

September 4, 2008

Vanity football jerseys invade the real game…

If you’re anything like me, you DESPISE those custom NFL jerseys that seemingly half of NFL season ticket holders love. Every week as I’m tailgating with my buddies at Lincoln Financial Field, my eyes can’t help to dart around and see otherwise perfectly good NFL jerseys ruined with either the person’s name or, worse yet, some catch phrase. I’m sure you know what I mean:

  • “TD Maker”
  • “Joe Houshmazilli”
  • “Soup R Bowl” [if you’re an Eagles fan, you get this Chunky Soup homage]

While there’s no accounting for taste, one would think we wouldn’t have to worry about these silly vanity jerseys actually making it on an NFL field. Well, leave it to Chad Johnson to change that. For those who haven’t heard, Chad Johnson has officially changed his name to Chad Javon Ocho Cinco.

CHAD…

JAVON…

OCHO…

CINCO…

Sigh…

Props to the Curly R blog for photoshopping this jersey. I was going to do the very same thing, but Curly R beat me to it.

Need a reason why Plaxico Burress will be a stud tonight?..how about $35mm reasons?

Filed under: Contract, New York, Plaxico Burress, NYG, FBG, NFL, WR, Fantasy, Footballguys, NFC East, Giants — Jason Wood @ 4:32 pm

All offseason Plaxico Burress has been waiting for a new deal and sat out much of the preseason, at least in part, as a result. He came back to practice in good faith that a new deal would be in the offing. Just two hours before the season is about to kick off, and reports indicate Burress and the Giants have come to terms on a new 5-year, $35mm contract that replaces his existing deal.

Anyone worrying whether Burress was healthy and/or going to live up to his considerable fantasy potential, I can offer you $35mm reasons why he is going to get off to a great start this year.

August 20, 2008

Joe Horn: Eagles fans, he’s NOT the answer

Filed under: Philadelphia, Joe Horn, Kevin Curtis, FBG, NFC East, WR, Injury, Footballguys, Eagles — Jason Wood @ 4:34 pm

Kevin Curtis, the Eagles unquestioned WR1 and a top-20 fantasy prospect, was diagnosed with a sports hernia (suffered last Thursday) and is undergoing surgery. Estimates put him out 4 to 6 weeks. I’m skeptical of that time frame. We’ve seen Donovan McNabb and L.J. Smith take longer than expected to recover from sports hernias, so color me skeptical that Curtis will be back on the field at full strength before Week 8 (October 26th) following the team’s bye week.

The loss of Curtis, in conjunction with Anquan Boldin asking for a trade, has sparked speculation that the Eagles should pursue the talented wideout. The Eagles have extra draft picks, and their own disgruntled player (Lito Sheppard) to dangle in a trade. Makes sense, BUT it’s still a long shot.

In listening to Philadelphia sports radio station 610 WIP this afternoon, dozens of callers were clamoring for the Eagles to bring in Joe Horn, recently released by the Atlanta Falcons.

As an Eagles fan, I’m disappointed by the Curtis news. I would LOVE for them to pursue Boldin, because he’s still in his prime, and is an elite addition. Boldin would be WR1 and Curtis would be WR2 upon his return. But Joe Horn? I think Eagles fans really need to look at what Horn has done over the last few years.

Year Team Games Recs Yards YPR TDs
2005 NOR 13 49 654 13.3 1
2006 NOR 10 37 679 18.4 4
2007 ATL 12 27 243 9.0 1
Avg x 11.7 38 525 13.6 2

Those numbers, to say the least, pedestrian. Considering Horn turned 36 this year, he’s no more attractive (in fact, less so) than either Greg Lewis or Hank Baskett at this juncture. I’m not suggesting Eagles fans should be excited about having Baskett or Lewis play a large role in the offense, just understand that they’re no worse than Joe Horn, and come with a better understanding of this offense, are cheaper, and won’t demand the ball more than their skills warrant.

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