Now that the NFL Draft is in the books, we are standing on the cusp of the NFL preseason. During the coming weeks, rookie mini-camps will grind into gear and hard-core fantasy owners will start the process of evaluating this year’s draft picks potential for “instant impact” during 2008. In redraft fantasy football leagues, one key requirement for the kind of production that fantasy owners crave is opportunity. A player like TE Martellus Bennett (a 2nd-round selection by Dallas) may have all the talent in the world, but his chances for a meaningful 2008 season in fantasy terms are very slight due to being buried on the depth chart behind All-Pro TE Jason Witten.

The below is a preliminary list of the top rookie prospects for redraft fantasy leagues, given their new NFL homes.

Rookie Running Backs

The running back position is where the fantasy gems among the rookies are most likely to be found. While it is true that for every Adrian Peterson (Minnesota) or Joseph Addai one can point at, there are also players like J.J. Arrington or Chris Perry who serve as a counter-examples, it is also true that running backs tend to make the quickest transition to playing at the NFL level. A fantasy owner is most likely to find an “instant impact” player among the rookie running backs in any given calendar year.

Jonathan Stewart is probably the best bet at running back to generate fantasy impact during his rookie season. He is the sort of running back that the Panthers’ coaching staff prefers, and they have been retooling their offensive line for a power running attack - Stewart fits the mold that Carolina is built to utilize. DeAngelo Williams simply isn’t the player the coaching staff wants to rely on as their #1 RB - he is better suited to a change-of-pace, 3rd-down role in their scheme. Stewart figures to have plenty of touches on the ball with the Panthers this year.

Darren McFadden is a boom-or-bust type prospect. Yes, he has the type of speed and top gear that make him a threat to go to the house on every down, and he projects to be the starter with the Raiders (assuming his contract negotiations go well and he avoids a JaMarcus Russell-type holdout scenario). However, there is a crowded RB stable in Oakland, with Justin Fargas coming off a 1000+ yard season - if McFadden struggles with the pro game, he may not get many chances to redeem himself.

Kevin Smith lands with the Lions, who really like his game and seem to be indicating that the starting job is his to lose during 2008. We’ll see if their actions match their draft-day rhetoric - but Tatum Bell hasn’t looked like the answer since he arrived in Detroit, and as of today, he is the only other back of note on the team. If Smith impresses in training camp it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him starting for the Lions in September.

Matt Forte comes into a by-committee backfield situation, with both Cedric Benson and Adrian Peterson grinding out 3.4 yards per carry last season. Peterson was far more productive than Benson in the passing game (51/420/0 receiving vs. 17/123/0) and actually led the team in total yardage and fantasy points at the RB position last year. Benson has greatly underperformed his draft slot (1st round -4th pick in 2005) and may find himself riding the pine if Forte proves that he outperform Benson during training camp.

Rashard Mendenhall is likely to be Willie Parker’s primary backup for this year, but given Parker’s difficulty at the goal-line last year (321/1316/2 rushing), Mendenhall could find a role as the Steelers’ goal-line back (Najeh Davenport gained 107/499/5 rushing and 18/184/2 as the Steelers’ big back/change of pace back last year). If Mendenhall seals the #2 job with Pittsburgh, he could have value in basic scoring leagues (any league where TD production is the primary scoring criteria).

Felix Jones joins fellow rookie Tashard Choice as the new backups to Marion Barber III. Barber looks set to carry the majority of the load for Dallas, but Jones’ outside speed will give him a shot to earn playing time as the 3rd down back/passing down back - depending on how quickly Jones picks up the Cowboys’ offense and learns to pick up the blitz.

Rookie Wide Receivers

Second to the running backs, rookie WRs occasionally step into the NFL and make fantasy owners’ seasons. The most obvious example of this phenomenon would be Randy Moss’s first incredible season (69/1313/17) with Minnesota (he was the #1 fantasy WR as a rookie) - Larry Fitzgerald’s 58/780/8 as a rookie was also pretty outstanding for a rookie WR (30th best fantasy WR during 2004). However, it is far more often the case that rookie WRs bust (especially in their first season of NFL action). The last time I fell hard for a rookie WR’s potential, I ended up having Rashaun Woods among my preseason top 36 fantasy prospects - only to watch him fail miserably at the NFL level. Now-a-days, it is my rule of thumb that exactly zero rookie WRs land among my top 40 or so fantasy prospects until they have proven their skills extensively in training camp and preseason games - and even then I tend to be conservative about drafting them early - I would urge fantasy owners to be very leery of rookie wideouts.

James Hardy appears to have landed in the best situation among the draftees, with a legitimate shot at capturing the #2 wide receiver position on the Buffalo Bills. Other than Lee Evans, the Bills’ WRs generated 1 receiving TD last year (Josh Reed was #2 in yardage with 51/578/0) - not exactly what the coaching staff was looking for, to say the least. However, don’t go overboard with your enthusiasm for Hardy - the Bills were 30th in the NFL when it came to passing offense, so his ceiling as the #2 WR (if he gets that far) is relatively low compared to a player on a franchise like New England.

DeSean Jackson figures to be in the mix in Philadelphia, but the team spreads the ball around quite a bit - the 2nd best receiver on the Eagles over the past two years failed to get over 800 yards receiving or score more than 5 times, and the players at WR3 and below are non-factors in fantasy terms.

Devin Thomas may challenge for playing time in Washington, but with a developing young QB in Jason Campbell and an entrenched #1 WR in Santana Moss combined with a high-scoring TE hogging red-zone chances (Chris Cooley has 6 or more TDs in each of his first 4 seasons) - Thomas will have significant obstacles to overcome before he starts putting up the kind of statistics that make fantasy owners excited.

Malcolm Kelly - see Devin Thomas above.

Jerome Simpson landed with Cincinnati while the Bengals are searching for a replacement WR3 - if he can wow the coaching staff in training camp and sew up the WR3 spot, he could put up decent numbers now and then during 2008.

Rookie Quarterbacks

Excepting Peyton Manning , the exception who proves the rule, no rookie QB has been a fantasy standout during recent memory - even Dan Marino took one season to get up to speed before exploding during his second campaign way back in 1984. Unless you are convinced that Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco or any of the other draftees this year are of the caliber of a Peyton Manning or a Dan Marino, you should probably pass on them during your redraft league’s annual draft.

Matt Ryan will likely get his chance to start during 2008, perhaps early on in the season if Chris Redman falters during training camp. Ryan is sure to suffer typical rookie growing pains once he does get into the lineup, so he probably won’t have any games worth mentioning until very late in the season, if then.

Joe Flacco may be the heir apparent in Baltimore, but he’s currently buried behind Kyle Boller and Troy Smith (last year’s draft pick at the position). The Ravens got burned the last time they rushed a QB into the starting lineup (witness Boller’s checkered career with Baltimore) - they aren’t likely to make the same mistake with Flacco. He’ll likely carry the clipboard after preseason, with occasional spot duty in blow out wins or losses.

Rookie Tight Ends

Rookie tight ends are very seldom worth drafting - Tony Gonzalez scored 2 TDs in his rookie campaign (33/368/2), as did Antonio Gates (24/389/2), as did the ultra-hyped rookie TE of 2007, Greg Olsen (39/391/2). The three above examples are actually best-case scenarios for the vast majority of rookie TEs - the position is very demanding at the pro level and it simply takes more than 1 training camp and regular season to absorb all the duties that are asked of a pro TE. Among the 2008 draftees, expect 300+ and 1-2 TDs to be a ceiling when you are crafting your projections.

New Seahawk John Carlson will battle Jeb Putzier for playing time during 2008, and could end up starting for Seattle sooner rather than later. He is the TE prospect who landed in the best situation (such as it is) from the fantasy perspective.

Dustin Keller arrives to the Jets via a first round pick, but he’ll have to earn his way into the starting lineup - solid-but-unspectacular Chris Baker has scored 4 TDs in 2 of the past 4 seasons, and posted 41/409/3 last year. Keller will have the opportunity to learn the position from Baker and another veteran TE, Bubba Franks, this season. Keller is a guy to watch as the year progresses - he might be worth a flyer in free agency late in the season (just before fantasy playoffs) if he manages to earn playing time during 2008.

The NFL Draft is an exciting time of year for football junkies, but it is just the beginning of a long process. Don’t let your draft weekend enthusiasm drown out your better judgement as you prepare your preliminary draft lists for 2008. We have yet to get an inkling who among the draftees will fulfill their promise, which ones will outperform expectations - and how many will go bust in their first season as a pro football players.

For a team that supposedly had no leverage, the Cardinals come out looking pretty good today. Larry Fitzgerald, due $14.6mm in 2008, signed a new 4-year, $40mm contract today ending weeks of speculation that he would have to be traded in order for the Cardinals to field a 53-man roster.

According to reports, the deal includes:

• $40mm total value over 4 years
• $15mm signing bonus
• $2mm in 2008 salary
• $5mm option bonus before 2009 season
• $30mm in guarantees

Yes, that’s a monster deal so why do I think the Cardinals came out looking good, you ask? Because in the process, they lowered Fitz’ cap number to $7.6mm in 2008, freeing up almost $9mm in cap room to field a competitive roster. On top of that, the Cards lock up the best YOUNG receiver in the game. Fitz is only 24 years old (he’ll turn 25 in August), and is easily among the most productive receivers in the history of the NFL at that age.

Consider:

Most Receiving Yards, Career (Players 24 years or younger)

Most Receptions, Career (Players 24 years or younger)

Most Receiving TDs, Career (Players 24 years or younger)

Just when you though the Raiders couldn’t get any nuttier, they go ahead and blow their own record for financial inadequacy right out of the water. We, like many others, wondered why the Raiders were so eager to commit $50.5mm including $18mm in guarantees to DT Tommy Kelly at the start of free agency. And when Al Davis followed that up with the questionable signing of safety Gibril Wilson to a 6-year, $39mm contract with $16mm in guarantees, we bit our tongue. But neither move comes close to yesterday’s signing of Javon Walker.

According to several sources, the Raiders are putting the finishing touches on a 6-year, $55 million contract. The deal allegedly includes $16mm in guarantees and will pay him $27mm over the first three years of the deal.

That is BAFFLING.

Even if we accept the notion that this year’s free agent contracts are driven by the inflation of a rising salary cap, how on Earth can the Raiders justify the sensibility of this signing?

• Randy Moss, he of the 23 TD receptions and Hall of Fame credentials, just signed a 3-year, $27mm deal with New England. Moss got $15mm guaranteed. The Raiders are paying Walker MORE guaranteed money than Randy Moss!
• Jerry Porter, another Raiders castoff, signed a 6-year deal with the Jaguars. The difference? It was for $30mm with $10mm guaranteed. In other words, Walker is getting 2x what Porter got.

It would be one thing if the Raiders were signing Walker based solely on his talent, with no concern toward his prior injuries or personality quirks. But how can you ignore either of those factors?

• Demanded a trade from Green Bay
• Demanded a trade/release from Denver
• Complained about his contractual status on both teams
• Has undergone not one, not two, but THREE knee surgeries in the last three years

Does that sound like someone you break the bank for, and give a monster contract to without showing his stuff? While there were other teams interested in Javon, does anyone honestly think another team would’ve come close to matching that deal?

If Walker is healthy, he can produce; let’s not mistake that. He’s scored 30 TDs in 72 games, and has two 1,000-yard seasons under his belt. But given his attitude and injury risk; not to mention the potentially impressionable nature of 2nd year QB JaMarcus Russell; this signing makes little sense. Walker has all the advantage here, where is the Raiders leverage?

The silver (& black) lining is that savvy fantasy football owners can successfully ignore Walker in 2008. I’m sure his “potential” will mean he gets drafted far too early for the risks involved. Let someone else take that risk while you build your roster the right way.

Big Ben Roethlisberger signed an 8-year, $102mm extension today that guarantees him $36mm. Considering Big Ben is taking the same guaranteed money that Peyton Manning and Michael Vick got a few years ago, it’s hard to argue the Steelers are paying him too much. Big Ben has not only brought a SB title to Pittsburgh, but is coming off his best season:

• 264 completions
• 404 attempts
• 65.3% completion
• 3,154 yards
• 32 TDs
• 11 INTs
• 104.1 paser rating

Personally, I think this is a smart deal. Locking up a young franchise passer is smart business. Given the inflation we’re seeing in salaries this year, they could’ve paid him a lot more and set a new market for franchise QBs, but instead basically met the pre-existing market. That’s good business.

But looking a little deeper, should Steelers fans be worried about this contract? Ben becomes the 7th QB in NFL history awarded a $100mm contract. In each prior case, the team has fared better BEFORE the contract than after.

In all but Donovan McNabb’s case, the QBs landing $100mm contracts have led their teams to a worse winning percentage after the fact. In three cases, the players winning percentage has plummeted, including the three most recent $100mm QBs (Culpepper, Vick, Palmer).

Is this just a random statistical quirk? Probably so. Drew Bledsoe got hurt and only played two games for New England after signing his extension. In Mike Vick and Carson Palmer’s cases, their team’s defenses have fallen off a cliff coincident with their new contracts. But can that not be blamed, at least in part, to the fact these new $100mm deals removed some of the flexibility GMs had in strengthening other parts of the team? Perhaps.

Either way, for now I still say the Steelers were smart to give Big Ben the big extension. Now if the Steelers end up losing more games than they have to date with Big Ben under center, we can revisit this phenomenon more intently.

That didn’t take long…

…just a day after signing Michael “The Burner” Turner to a monster free agent contract, the Falcons released Warrick Dunn.

The 33-year old tailback will have little trouble finding work elsewhere; particularly if he’s willing to accept a role as a backup and situational contributor on a contending team.

Possible Landing Spots?

It’s never too early to handicap where Dunn might land, here are five teams that make imminent sense in our minds:

1. Indianapolis Colts — The Colts don’t have a reliable backup on the roster, and Dunn would be a perfect complement to Joseph Addai. He likely would accept a lesser role on the Colts because they are among a handful of Super Bowl contenders. Given his prior relationship with Tony Dungy when they were in Tampa Bay; this situation almost seems too logical to be true. Update: OK, it seems I may have sold Kenton Keith short. He had a solid 2007 season with 533 yards (4.4 YPC), 13 receptions and 4 total TDs.
2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Jon Gruden is no stranger to veteran contributors and Dunn has strong ties to the Tampa area from his days as a Buc. The Bucs would probably have to make a bigger financial commitment to Dunn than the Colts would, simply because of the less certain playoff outlook.
3. Detroit Lions – Kevin Jones may not be ready for the start of the season, and the Lions have virtually no one ready to step in and play. This is one of the few places Dunn could conceivably earn big playing time; and HC Rod Marinelli is a Dunn fan from their days in Tampa.
4. Dallas Cowboys — The Cowboys never seem to shy away from aging veterans and Jerry Jones could easily view Dunn as a solid backup and complement to Marion Barber; who is slated for a heavier workload in 2008 with the departure of Julius Jones.
5. Tennessee Titans — Pairing Dunn with LenDale White could be an interesting one-two punch. Dunn’s veteran presence, work ethic and his commitment to blocking would serve as great examples for White and fellow youngster Chris Henry. It’s unclear whether the Titans are open to adding someone 11 years into the league; but if they are, Dunn could be a nice two-year answer.

Where do you think Dunn will land? Do you think he’ll have any tangible fantasy value in 2008? Let’s hear your thoughts in our discussion forum.

It’s been a stressful few days for Patriots fans. While they were steeled against losing the likes of Asante Samuel, Randall Gay, Donte Stallworth and Eugene Wilson, no Patriots fan wanted to see Randy “23 TDs” Moss walk out the door. Today, Adam Schefter is reporting that Moss has agreed to a new 3-year, $27mm deal.

So ends a curious few weeks of speculation. When the Patriots opted not to tender Moss with the franchise designation, many (myself included) thought a long-term deal was already in place; but couldn’t be formally announced until the beginning of free agency. Yet, when the clock struck midnight Moss and the Patriots were eerily quiet about the negotiations.

As far as we know, Moss didn’t agree to visit other teams but that didn’t stop the paranoia from flowing over the last few days. Some of the more outlandish rumors included:

• Moss wanted to reunite with Daunte Culpepper as a packaged deal somewhere
• That the Eagles were going to sign him because Moss and McNabb were seen buddying up at the NFL event in Disney
• The Brett Favre was basing his decision on retirement on whether the Packers could acquire Moss

Yeah…it’s been one of those weeks.

While the full terms of the new contract aren’t out yet, it’s safe to say that both sides deserve credit for this one.

• Moss took less to stay -- Moss could’ve EASILY gotten more than 3 years, $27mm from another team, if he was willing to go to a non-contender flush with cash. If you don’t believe that, take a look at the 4-years, $16mm Andre Davis got to re-sign in Houston, or the 6-years, $42mm Bernard Berrian nabbed from Minnesota, or the 6-years, $30mm deal Jerry Porter got to sign with Jacksonville.
• New England didn’t panic – We shouldn’t be surprised when New England plays it cool, but how many teams would’ve let their prized free agent sit out on the open market amidst the buying frenzy we’ve seen the last few days?

Fantasy owners can breathe a sign of relief

No one should expect Tom Brady to throw 50 TDs nor should they expect Moss to catch 23 scores again in 2008. But today’s signing does put a floor in the Patriots offense (precluding major injury) and all but assures that both Moss and Brady will be among the top players at their positions come fantasy draft time. Neither is going to come cheaply this year (unlike last season), but that’s a discussion for another day.

Michael “The Burner” Turner has signed a 6-year, $34.5mm deal including $15mm in guaranteed money. Turner, easily the class of the free agent RB market, took a few days to sign with Atlanta but not because he was weighing other options. As far as we know, Turner’s only visit and offer came from the Falcons.

Turner (5′10″, 237 pounds, 25 years old) is a big back who can push the pile and drag defenders when he gets a head of steam. While not a pure speed merchant, he has a 2nd gear which is a rare thing for someone his size. Used sparingly as a backup to LaDainian Tomlinson, Turner has performed admirably in spot duty. Take a gander at Turner’s career numbers:

• 228 carries
• 1,257 yards
• 5.5 yards per carry
• 6 TDs
• 11 receptions
• 71 yards

In with Turner, Out with Dunn?

In an era when many teams are using two-back systems, expect Turner to serve as the Falcons main ball-carrier while Jerious Norwood logs 100-150 carries (ideally if both stay healthy). This signing all but ends Warrick Dunn’s career in Atlanta. A lot of people expected Norwood to overtake Dunn last year in attempts, but somehow the cagey veteran started 15 games and logged 227 carries. Unfortunately for Falcons fans, he averaged just 3.2 yards per carry.

Savvy fantasy owners understand that Turner isn’t going to average 5.5 yards per carry as a full-time back. However, it would be shocking if he doesn’t put up much better per carry numbers than Dunn has of late. Consider that Norwood has averaged 6.2 yards per carry in his two seasons; so that Falcons line isn’t incapable of run blocking.

Where Turner will have to prove himself is as a red zone threat and a receiver; two critical parts to any fantasy runner’s success. Turner only has six touchdowns in four seasons. Yes, he had to play behind the league’s highest scoring RB, but still, we don’t know how good Turner can be in short yardage situations. In the receiving department, he’ll have to improve on his current scouting reports, or else look for Norwood to notch most of the receptions out of the backfield.

What should we expect in 2008?

I’ll throw out 250 carries for 1,100-1,200 yards and 7-9 TDs as a baseline. We’ll tweak his projections and put more meat on the bones later in the offseason; once we have a better picture of the rest of the team’s makeup. The Falcons need to implement a new offensive system and probably have moves to make in free agency and the draft to secure the offensive line. Once those moves have happened (or not), we’ll see whether Turner is going to live up to the enormous fantasy billing he’ll receiver from a lot of people this summer.

Before the start of free agency, Bernard Berrian indicated he wanted a contract similar to the 6-year, $36mm deal Deion Branch received from the Seattle Seahawks a season ago. While few questioned whether Berrian was a coveted free agent (he’s the #2 WR on most boards, behind Randy Moss), a lot of folks questioned whether Berrian would and should be paid as one of the elite at the position.

As I’ve been saying for weeks now, the market dictates the price as much as the talent does. We’ve seen free agents land monster deals at every position, and it’s more about the rising salary cap (estimated $116mm) and team’s projected cap room (more than at any point in league history) than it is about saying these free agents are the best in the league.

Regardless of whether you think Berrian is worth top-10 money, he stood a very good chance at landing that kind of contract this offseason.

And so he has…The Minnesota Vikings have signed Berrian to a 6-year, $42mm deal with $16mm guaranteed. That may seem like big coin for a guy that’s never had 1,000-yard season, but the Vikings are hoping Berrian is on the cusp of greatness and will leverage his deep speed to take the pressure off QB Tarvaris Jackson as well as the two-headed running attack of Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor.

How much will Berrian help the Vikings passing attack?

Without looking up the stats, I bet a lot of you would assume the Bears passing attack was almost as bad as the Vikings last year, right? Now go look at the stats:

• Passing Yards — 3,362 Bears vs. 2,745 Vikings
• Attempts — 569 Bears vs. 432 Vikings
• Completions — 327 Bears vs. 249 Vikings
• Completion Percentage — 57.5% Bears vs. 57.6% Vikings
• Yards per Attempt — 5.9 Bears vs. 6.4 Vikings
• Passing TDs — 18 Bears vs. 12 Vikings
• TDs conversion percentage — 3.2% Bears vs. 2.7% Vikings

If these numbers look ugly, they are. But that’s not the key takeaway. The key takeaway is that the Vikings numbers make the Bears look like the Greatest Show on Turf. For all of the Bears ineptitude and the dissatisfaction with the three headed QB monster of Griese/Orton/Grossman, they collectively were MORE productive than what Tarvaris Jackson and his backups produced in Minnesota.

As a group, the Vikings WRs converted 56.5% of their intended targets. That’s not very good, as you might expect. But here’s the bad news, Bernard Berrian has only converted 51.2% of his career targets. Let that sink in folks. For all of Berrian’s many talents, he’s managed to barely catch half of the targets thrown to him, yet is going to a team that had WORSE quarterbacking than what he enjoyed with the Bears.

But will this signing help Berrian or his fantasy owners?

Now, we know Berrian is a speedy receiver and, to his credit, he is coming off a career season (70 catches for 948 yards and 5 TDs). But is he an all around difference maker? Even if you argue his numbers were hurt by the QB situation in Chicago, how can anyone say his situation is MORE advantageous in Minnesota?

At least in Chicago, Berrian had the advantage of seeing a lot of targets because the Bears couldn’t run the ball. The Vikings have a phenomenal rushing attack and have no intentions of throwing the ball anywhere close to the 569 times the Bears did a year ago. So even if you assume Berrian can somehow improve upon his lackluster catch percentage in a new environment, it still seems unlikely he’ll see as many targets.

• In 2007, Berrian was targeted 127 times [22% of the Bears pass attempts]
• Berrian would’ve needed to have seen 30% of the Vikings attempts last year just to match his output
• Even if you assume the Vikings will throw a bit more in 2008, they aren’t going to dramatically shift the offensive balance given how superb their rushing attack is

Could Berrian put together a 1,000+ yard season  next year? Certainly, but a lot of things need to happen.

1. He needs to be more consistent catching short- and intermediate passes
2. The Vikings need to see DRAMATIC improvement from Tarvaris Jackson
3. The Vikings need to commit to a more balanced run/pass ratio [despite having a dominant rushing attack]

I think this is one of those signings that helps the Vikings a lot more than it helps fantasy football owners. Given Berrian’s contract and the fact he’s the clear #1 in Minnesota, I expect a lot of fantasy players will covet Berrian and draft him much too early in 2008. I won’t be one of them.

The Browns continue their free agent bonanza, signing Donte Stallworth to a 7-year, $35mm contract with $10mm in guarantees. This looks like a smart move for player and team alike. After wearing out his welcome in New Orleans, Stallworth was traded to the Eagles in 2006 and averaged a league best 19.1 yards per catch; but the Eagles deemed him expendable because he only played in 12 games and caught 38 passes. Last year, Stallworth was supposed to be Tom Brady’s deep threat; that is, until they traded for Randy Moss a few weeks after signing Donte. He still chipped in 46 catches but wasn’t a centerpiece of the Patriots dynamic offensive attack.

Now, Stallworth gets stability and a chance to establish himself on one of the league’s up-and-coming offenses. His speed should fit perfectly alongside Pro Bowl WR Braylon Edwards and TE Kellen Winslow. QB Derek Anderson led the league in yards per completion last year; and Stallworth’s addition will mean even more commitment to an aggressive, downfield passing attack.

What could this mean for the Browns offense?

Last year, Joe Jurevicius caught 50 receptions for 614 yards (12.3 per catch) with 3 TDs as the starter opposite Braylon Edwards. No other Browns wideout caught more than 8 passes.

So now the Browns add the speedy Stallworth to the mix; allowing them to not only stretch the field more, but to also user more 3-WR sets with Jurevicius (a big, tall, slow receiver) working out of the slot.

Although one can’t extrapolate numbers directly, let’s just have some fun with numbers for a second; if Donte Stallworth matched his career averages last year in place of  Joe Jurevicius, how would the Browns offense have looked?

• Jurevicius’ 2007 totals — 50 receptions for 614 yards (12.3 per catch), 3 TDs
• Stallworth’s Career averages — 15.1 yards per catch, 1 TD every 9 catches
• Implied Stallworth 2007 totals — 50 receptions for 755 yards (15.1 per catch), 5 TDs

If Derek Anderson can approximate his output from 2007 again this season, the Browns could be looking at a 4,000-yard season and 30+ passing TDs. WOW.

Lest anyone think Bill Parcells was going to take a measured approach toward rebuilding the woeful Miami Dolphins, think again. In what has to be the busiest single day in the history of NFL free agency, Parcells and his staff have signed a flurry of players in an attempt to right a ship that finished 1-15 a season ago. The Dolphins had approximately $40mm under the cap to spend; and Parcells appears ready to use every last bit of it. Today’s signings ranged from veteran locker room guys (e.g., Jason Ferguson and Sean Ryan) to potential Pro Bowlers (e.g., Calvin Pace). And considering the team’s cap situation, Parcells probably isn’t done yet.

A Recap of Bill’s Frenzied Friday

LB Calvin Pace — Rated as one of the top players at his position, Pace is exactly the kind of player Parcells’ covets. Pace is big (a converted defensive end) and thrived as the rush ‘backer in the Cardinals 3-4 last year. Although this isn’t official yet, several reports have the Fins giving Pace $20mm guaranteed. The addition of Pace raises questions about whether the team plans on keeping Joey Porter around. NOTE: Despite earlier reports, Pace did not sign with Miami but instead signed a 6-year, $42mm deal with the Jets.

OG Justin Smiley — The Dolphins signed Smiley to a 5-year, $25mm deal including $9mm in guarantees. Smiley has been a starter for most of his career (in San Francisco) and significantly upgrades the interior of the Dolphins line. Smiley helped open holes for Frank Gore and will likely slide in between center Samson Satele and LT L.J. Shelton.

DT Randy Starks — Considering how much defensive tackles are netting at the start of free agency, this signing seems like a downright steal. The Dolphins signed the 24-year old tackle to a 5-year, $21mm deal with $7mm in guarantees. Starks may not be a star (he lost his starting job in Tennessee to Tony Brown) but he’s got the size (6′3″, 314 pounds) and technique to emerge in the Fins scheme.

QB Josh McCown — McCown was a part-time starter in Arizona and Oakland, and may find himself starting in Week One for Miami depending on what else the Dolphins do this preseason. Given a 2-year, $6.25mm contract; McCown is very much a safety valve until John Beck (or someone else not currently on the roster) are ready to take over full-time. This isn’t a major financial commitment, nor should it be considering McCown has never finished a season with a passer rating above 74.9.

WR Ernest Wilford — Wilford was deemed expendable by the Jaguars after the acquisitions of Jerry Porter and Troy Williamson; but he quickly found a new home in Miami signing a 4-year, $13mm deal with $6mm in guarantees. Last year, Wilford caught 45 passes for 518 yards while scoring three times. He’s not a difference maker per se, but his addition will help stabilize the intermediate passing game. Wilford is a big (6′4″, 218 pounds) receiver with loads of starting experience, and will compliment the speedy Ted Ginn Jr.

TE Sean Ryan — Ryan is another long-time Parcells favorite. Signed to a one-year deal, this is more about bringing in a high character guy that Parcells thinks will help the locker room as well as special teams. Ryan isn’t going to be asked to do much offensively; he has a whopping 9 career receptions in four seasons. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

NT Jason Ferguson – Ferguson just didn’t fit into Wade Phillips attacking scheme in Dallas, but should have a place in Dallas’ system. The Cowboys traded Ferguson to Miami today, reuniting him with Parcells for the third time in his 12-year career. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

These moves probably are just the beginning as Parcells, GM Jeff Ireland and the coaching staff look to fundamentally alter the DNA of this team and return the Dolphins to prominence.

A lot of people are scratching their heads today. On the eve of free agency, the Oakland Raiders have signed Tommy Kelly to a 7-year, $50.5mm deal, making him — wait for it — the HIGHEST PAID DEFENSIVE TACKLE IN LEAGUE HISTORY. Yes, you heard that right folks…the Raiders signed the relatively unknown lineman for more money ($18mm guaranteed) than any lineman to ever suit up in the league.

So who is Tommy Kelly? He’s 6′6″, 300 pound defensive end that’s going to move inside to play undertackle in place of retired Warren Sapp. As you can see from his measurables, Kelly is built more like a defensive tackle; and the Raiders obviously think he can flourish inside. That said, Kelly’s best season was 2006 when he logged 68 tackles and 3.5 sacks. Last year, Kelly started six games but tore his ACL and was lost for the second half of the season.

If you think the Raiders overpaid for Kelly’s services, you’re not alone. Adam Schefter remarked on tonight’s NFL Total Access that a number of personnel executives were stunned by the signing. Now, if Kelly turns out to be a Pro Bowl caliber defensive tackle, the deal would be justified.

Cory Redding REDUX? Before Raiders fans get too excited, let’s remember what happened to Lions fans last season. A year ago, the Lions signed Cory Redding to a monster deal, making him the highest paid lineman. Lions fans pointed toward Redding’s solid 2006 (47 tackles, 8 sacks) and argued that Redding was on the verge of becoming a dominant young tackle. Well, a year later Redding logged a whopping 37 tackles and ONE SACK in 16 starts for one of the worst defenses in the league. This deal sure smells a lot like that one, doesn’t it?

Who benefits? That’s an easy one…any defensive tackle that’s up for a new contract benefits. Imagine the dance of joy going on at Tommie Harris’ house tonight. Think of how much the Titans are going to have to pay Albert Haynesworth if they want him to sign a multi-year extension instead of the one year franchise tender.

If there’s one lesson to take from this [aside from Al Davis’ growing senility], it’s that this year’s free agent class is going to land huge contracts by historical standards. With the rising salary cap combined with an unprecedented amount of salary cap room; teams are flush with cash and will find reasons to spend their money.

While it’s true that two of this year’s top options at tight end were franchised:

• Dallas Clark in Indianapolis
• L.J. Smith in Philadelphia

…there are a number of viable options remaining at the TE position. Whether you want a proven, pass-catching stud with some injury questions (Alge Crumpler) or a blocking beast (Kyle Brady) or something in between (Marcus Pollard); there are choices. Given the breadth of available free agents, expect a lot of movement for very reasonable financial terms.

The Top Tight Ends on the Market

1. Alge Crumpler (6′2″, 264 pounds, 30 years old) – The seven year veteran is the gem of the free agent market; but recent injury concerns might keep him from reaping top dollar. Crumpler is a perennial Pro Bowler and actually managed to make Michael Vick look like a real NFL passer at times. Even though he only started 10 games last year, Crumpler caught 42 passes for 444 yards and 5 TDs. Crumpler also can stretch the field; averaging 13.3 yards per catch over his career, and logging catches of 40 or more yards in all but one season. Expect Crumpler to visit several teams before signing a multi-year deal as a starter for a playoff contender.
2. Bo Scaife (6′3″, 249 pounds, 27 years old) – Scaife is a restricted free agent and probably isn’t leaving Tennessee. But he’s young and sure handed; making it entirely possible some team will sign him to an offer sheet. Expect Scaife to re-sign with Tennessee with a multi-year deal.
3. Ben Utecht (6′6″, 251 pounds, 26 years old) — Everyone knows about Dallas Clark, but Utecht is quietly a valuable part of the Colts offensive attack. Not only has he caught 68 passes over the last two seasons, but he’s averaged better than 11 yards per reception. Although he’s a restricted free agent, his age and versatility make him an attractive option for a team looking at upgrading their starter without breaking the bank.
4. Eric Johnson (6′3″, 252 pounds, 28 years old) – Johnson, when healthy, is a solid pass catcher but lacks explosiveness (career 9.1 yards per catch). He’s also failed to play a full season yet in his career. That said, he caught 48 passes in 12 starts last year as a Saint, and will get an opportunity to make plays for some team in 2008.

The (Near) Complete List

It’s the glory position of the league, and as a result it’s rarely the glory position of NFL free agency. Teams simply don’t make a habit of letting starting caliber QBs leave without compensation. Does this mean it’s impossible to find a quality starter in free agency? Absolutely not, just ask the New Orleans Saints (Drew Brees).

This year, there don’t appear to be any long-term answers in free agency assuming the Browns don’t let Derek Anderson walk [which we don’t expect], but a number of veterans with starting experience will land in new cities and have a shot at playing time in 2008.

A number of potential free agents were quickly re-signed by their incumbent teams:

• Rex Grossman signed a one-year deal to remain with the Bears. He will compete in camp against Kyle Orton (signed through 2009) in training camp
• Shaun Hill signed a three-year deal to stay in San Francisco. The 49ers also picked up the option on Alex Smith; leaving the door open for another possible camp competition

The Top Quarterbacks on the Market

1. Derek Anderson (6′6″, 230 pounds, 24 years old) — Anderson is a restricted free agent and the Browns have already offered him a 3-year, $20mm extension. Anderson emerged last season from a murky training camp competition and was the surprise of the league. He threw for 29 TDs and almost 4,000 yards while earning a Pro Bowl alternate nod. By re-signing Anderson, the Browns could keep Brady Quinn as the backup; giving them two young potential franchise passers; something few teams can match.
2. Todd Collins (6′4″, 225 pounds, 36 years old) – If you needed any indication of how weak this year’s FA class is, look no further than the fact Collins — a 36 year old journeyman — appears to be the best option. Collins started in place of the injured Jason Campbell late in the 2007 season and rolled up a 106.4 passer rating on the way to three straight victories and a playoff berth. Expect Collins to re-sign in Washington on a two- or three-year deal.
3. Daunte Culpepper (6′4″, 260 pounds, 31 years old) — It’s hard to believe Culpepper had the best fantasy season in QB history just a few years ago. But after seven seasons in Minnesota, Culpepper is possibly looking at his 3rd team in as many seasons. He should be 100% healthy (he tore his ACL in 2006) but needs to re-commit to his conditioning. No other QB has the pedigree Culpepper does; but therein lies the problem. Culpepper doesn’t see himself as a backup; which is probably what most GMs do.
4. Billy Volek (6′2″, 214 pounds, 31 years old) — Volek played sparingly as Philip Rivers backup the last two seasons but acquitted himself reasonably well as the fill-in starter in Tennessee. In 2004, his only significant starting time, he threw for 2,486 yards and 18 TDs on 61% completions in just 8 starts. Volek isn’t going to get a starting job; but he’s an intriguing backup that would give some team an above average fill-in option.
5. Byron Leftwich (6′5″, 250 pounds, 28 years old) — Think Leftwich should be higher on this list? Quite possibly, but what does it say that the woeful Atlanta Falcons felt better with Joey Harrington and Chris Redman under center. Leftwich is only 28 years old, has years of starting experience, and is a career 59% passer. But, he’s not in great shape, has a slow release and is best suited playing out of the shotgun. He’s too young and too talented not to land somewhere; but will it be a spot where he can compete for the top job?

The (Near) Complete List

It was bad enough that Antonio Gates was hobbled throughout the Chargers playoff run (6 catches for 60 yards and no scores in 3 games); but now fans have to wonder if he’ll be a factor at all in 2008. Yes folks, the world’s most dominant fantasy tight end is likely to undergo surgery next week to repair his injured foot. Although some have reported that Gates would be fine by the beginning of the regular season; he doesn’t appear as confident:

“It may be the beginning of training camp and it may be the middle of the season,” Antonio Gates said.

Until we have a clearer sense about Gates’ injury and the severity, it’s pure conjecture as to his projected recovery time. One thing is clear, Gates will present fantasy owners will a conundrum come draft time. He’s been BY FAR, the best fantasy TE in the league for years and there’s no reason to think he wouldn’t reprise that role again in 2008 if healthy. But given his lack of productivity in December and January; plus the recovery time from his upcoming surgery, how far must his draft stock fall before he represents good value? Stay tuned!

Sometimes it pays to take chances.

Last year, Jamal Lewis opted for a one-year deal to play in Cleveland after spending seven seasons with rival Baltimore. The move was initially met with skepticism as Lewis’ best days appeared to be behind him, and the Browns seemed to have bigger needs than an aging back. But Lewis took an incentive-laden 1-year deal and took it upon himself to prove the critics wrong.

And did he ever…

• 15 games played
• 1,304 yards [his best since 2003]
• 4.4 yards per rush [best since 2003]
• 30 receptions [3rd best]
• 248 receiving yards [best since 2002]
• 1,552 yards from scrimmage [best since 2003]
• 11 TDs [best since 2003]
• RB6 fantasy ranking [best since 2003]

Most importantly, Lewis was a consistent factor in a surprising 10-6 Cleveland team; which appears to be on the right track in no small part because of Lewis’ running and the emerging play of the resurgent offensive line.

This week, Lewis was rewarded with a new 3-year deal (terms not yet disclosed) that will keep him in Cleveland through 2010.

Related Blogs:

• Jamal Lewis: Goes for double or nothing and wins

Last month, Donovan McNabb made a plea for management to bring in more playmakers, citing the team’s 8-8 record and 4th place division finish:

Now that the season is over and we are concentrating on 2008, I hope we are able to secure some playmakers in all three phases of the game. Maybe some of those playmakers are already on the roster but have struggled with injuries, myself included, that have held us back a little.

You can’t argue with how the Patriots went outside their locker room and stocked up on playmakers last year. It certainly helped to have Randy Moss, Donte Stallworth, Wes Welker and Adalius Thomas making plays for them all year.

I’m surprised that anyone would have a problem with me, or anyone else in the organization, expressing a desire to bring in more quality players. We were 8-8. There is room for improvement. This is a competitive sport. It’s about putting together the best players, the best team, and giving yourself the best chance to win.

OK, as an Eagles season ticket holder I’m not going to pretend to be unbiased on this matter. On the surface, it’s hard to argue with McNabb’s statement. After all, the Eagles lacked impact playmakers on both sides of the ball. The team ranked poorly in big plays on offense, and didn’t force enough turnovers on defense. Certainly, all things being equal, I would like to see Philadelphia make some bold offseason maneuvers.

BUT…has McNabb looked in the mirror? Dos the buck stop with “5″? Rather than simply accept the perception that Philadelphia has a lack of playmakers on offense, I thought it might be worth putting some numbers together to see if the stats bear out McNabb’s contentions.

Yards After the Catch (YAC)

The ability of a receiver to generate yards after the catch is essential; particularly in a West Coast offense. To that end, the Eagles’ as a team generated 2,147 yards after the catch last season. That was the THIRD BEST TOTAL IN THE LEAGUE. In other words, McNabb’s receivers did a lot on their own once he got the ball into their hands. But that number (2,147 yards) doesn’t tell the whole story. Let’s look at what percentage of each team’s receiving yards came after the catch:

As you can see, the Eagles pass catchers generated nearly THREE FIFTHS of the team’s yards AFTER THE CATCH. Thinking of this another way, Donovan McNabb and the other Eagles’ QBs just didn’t get the ball downfield with regularity. So I ask, is it the receivers or McNabb that needs to improve?

Dropped Passes

Another key metric is dropped passes. Nothing is more frustrating for a QB than to put the ball where it needs to be only to have a receiver drop the ball. So have the Eagles been a victim of the drops?

On this front it seems McNabb may have a better argument. The Eagles receivers dropped 6.4% of the team’s attempts; among the worst in the league.

So what’s the verdict? The Eagles, like many teams, could always use more offensive playmakers. But this perception that Philly’s receiving corps is among the least impressive in the league simply isn’t accurate. Could it be better? Certainly. But a lot of the blame for the team’s lack of explosiveness in the passing game falls at the feet of McNabb and his backups.

Prior to the start of the 2006 season, Jamal Lewis returned to the Baltimore Ravens on a one-year deal. Despite rushing for 2,000 yards a few seasons before, Lewis had seen relatively no interest in free agency and returned, hat in hand, to the team that wouldn’t commit to him. Of course, his injuries, lack of conditioning and jail term all played a role. Lewis made a bet that his one-year deal would lead to free agent riches; but then he posted the following numbers:

• 314 carries
• 1,132 yards
• 3.6 yards per rush
• 9 rushing TDs
• 18 receptions
• 115 receiving yards

Those numbers weren’t horrible, but they were hardly the stuff of an elite franchise runner and, as  a result, Lewis entered last offseason in a similar position. Many teams wondered if his best days were behind him. He found a home in division rival Cleveland, thanks to GM Phil Savage (who scouted Lewis while a personnel executive in Baltimore); but again only for a 1-year deal.

WHAT A DIFFERENCE A SEASON MAKES

The Browns are on the verge of a potential playoff berth and Jamal Lewis has enjoyed a resurgent season:

• 14 games
• 272 carries
• 1,176 yards
• 4.3 yards per rush
• 9 TDs
• 29 receptions
• 247 yards receiving
• 2 receiving TDs

Lewis posted his best yardage, yards per rush, TDs and receiving numbers since his magical 2,000-yard season in 2003. As a result? He will either sign a lon