There are only 2 weeks in the NFL books this year, but already the QB carousel has started to spin for various teams in the NFL. Fantasy favorite Tom Brady is out for the season due to ACL and MCL injuries; Vince Young sprained his MCL and hit a crisis of confidence in his career; Jeff Garcia was benched after losing week 1.

Of course, we could also look at the Kansas City mess, but for right now the best advice to fantasy owners is to ignore K.C. QBs - they are the fantasy equivalent of “toxic, sub-prime assets” right now.

Anyway, if you had/have Brady, Young or Garcia on your team, you are probably trying to decide who to add to your roster to replace (or supplement) these players.  

Matt Cassel has stepped in for Brady in New England; Kerry Collins appears to have taken over for Vince Young (at least for the foreseeable future); and Brian Griese has been named the Buccaneer’s starter on at least an interim basis (and perhaps for the entire season).

Of the three players, Cassel is clearly the best fantasy option as he has the most talent surrounding him up in New England. He’s probably already been scooped off the waiver wire, but if he’s still sitting around in your league, Cassel would be the guy to grab during bidding this week.

If you are reduced to debating between Collins and Griese, there are several angles to consider:

• Griese probably has a tad more “job security” than Collins, as Jeff Garcia appears to be deep in the coaches’ doghouse down in Tampa. The Titans are going with Collins for now while Young sorts out his off-field issues, but unlike Garcia (who was a year-to-year solution for Tampa since his arrival in town), Young is still (hopefully) the future at QB in Tennessee. Of the two new starters, Griese is more likely to stay under center for this year.
• Tennessee’s starters at WR are Justin Gage and Justin McCareins - not exactly world-beaters - and TE Alge Crumpler has been merely mediocre in the first two games this year. Tampa’s stable of WRs is ancient (Ike Hilliard, Joey Galloway, Antonio Bryant), but they have a lot of savvy and are more talented than Tennessee’s so-so lineup.
• Tennessee’s line has allowed 2 sacks so far this year, while the Buccaneers have coughed up 4 to date. Both teams have similar ball-control philosophies on offense, with solid RB stables lining up behind both Griese and Collins - neither guy is going to be asked to win games solely with his arm.
• Tampa plays at Chicago, vs. Green Bay, at Denver and vs. Carolina over the next 4 weeks. Tennessee is hosting Houston and Minnesota weeks 3 and 4, with a trip to Baltimore in week 5 and then a bye in week 6. Neither schedule is exceptionally appealing from a fantasy perspective (Chicago, Green Bay and Carolina are all playing fairly well on defense right now; Tennessee faces Houston next week, but then figures to be in low-scoring contests with Minnesota and Baltimore before their bye).

If you decide to stand pat and await developments for another week or two, more QB changes could be in the offing - Tarvaris Jackson is looking shaky as the starter in Minnesota (in particular) as of week 3. As we saw with New England during week 1, any given starter is only 1 snap away from being sidelined, so who knows what the future may hold?

 Good luck, and have fun managing your roster!

In this Internet era of the NFL, with free agency going on throughout the off-season and, additionally, draft coverage galore, football fans are inundated with coverage about their favorite team’s moves. High draft picks are scrutinized and their tape is dissected via Tivo replays and YouTube clips, free agents’ prospects endlessly debated - and, often, expectations reach a fevered pitch entering week 1 of the regular season.

And then, reality crashes the speculation party - top offensive coordinators throw a full-blown smorgasbord of plays at the opposition’s defense (after a month of vanilla preseason fare), and exploit their weaknesses mercilessly. Despite many teams’ best efforts to shore up their flaws, improvement is hard to come by at the NFL level, folks. Let’s take a look at week 1 results among the league’s worst rush defenses from 2007, and see what early indications we can find about their direction in 2008.

The bottom 20% of the NFL in terms of rush defense last year were as follows:

#27: The Cleveland Browns, who averaged 129.5 rushing yards allowed per game during 2007, with 8 rushing TDs given up last season (6th-best in the NFL).  During week 1 of 2008, the Browns allowed:

• 31/167/3 rushing to Dallas, a 5.4 yards allowed per carry average
• The Browns actually regressed in both categories (yards allowed and TDs given up) and look worse this year than they did last year

#28: The Kansas City Chiefs, who averaged 130.8 rushing yards allowed per game during 2007, with 11 TDs given up (tied for 12th in the NFL). During week 1 of 2008, the Chiefs handed over:

• 28/126/1 to New England, a 4.5 yards allowed per carry average
• The Chiefs carried on with their turnstile ways despite the loss of Tom Brady from New England’s attack (the Patriots had much less threat to pass after Brady left, but yet the Chiefs couldn’t clamp down on New England’s stable of backs)

#29: The New York Jets, who averaged 134.8 rushing yards allowed per game during 2007, with 14 rushing TDs handed over (tied for 23rd in the NFL). During week 1 of 2008, the Jets gave up:

• 17/49/0 to Miami, a 2.9 yards allowed per carry average
• The Jets showed significant improvement in week 1* (see below, though)

#30: The Denver Broncos, who averaged 142.6 rushing yards allowed per game during 2007, with 14 rushing TDs given up (tied for 23rd with the Jets). During week 1 of 2008 the Broncos coughed up:

• 31/150/0 rushing to the Raiders, despite a limited passing attack in the hands of green-as-grass JaMarcus Russell (a 4.8 yards allowed per carry average)
•  Denver did manage to avoid allowing a rushing TD, but they clearly haven’t improved much over last season despite the lack of an allowed rushing score week 1

#31: The Oakland Raiders, who averaged 145.9 rushing yards allowed per game during 2007, with 24 rushing TDs bled out of the defense (32nd in the NFL). During week 1 of the 2008 season, Denver gashed Oakland for:

• 34/142/3 rushing, an average of 4.2 yards allowed per carry
• Oakland could hand over even more than rushing TDs in 2008 at this pace - they have taken a step back in goal-line defense (which didn’t look likely prior to the MNF game last night). Oakland remains, arguably, the easiest NFL team to rush the ball against, although Cleveland was even worse in week 1 (but they faced a much more powerful Dallas offense).

#32: The Miami Dolphins, who averaged 153.5 rushing yards allowed per game during 2007, with 18 rushing TDs handed over (30th in the NFL). During week 1 of 2008 the Dolphins handed over:

• 31/112/1 to New York, a 3.6 yards allowed per carry average
• Miami showed some improvement over last season, but are still far from a shut-down, wet-blanket type defense

So what can we learn from the above and apply to our fantasy teams? First of all, improvement on the defensive side of the ball isn’t usually a matter of a quantum leap forward from one year to the next. Yes, free agency and the draft can help (as can the return of key personnel from a prior year’s injured reserve list), but incrimental improvement is much more likely to occur than a huge jump forward. For the league’s worst defensive units (like those mentioned above), there are usually more than 1 or 2 holes to be closed, making just one year’s worth of roster moves unlikely to suddenly “fix” a big problem. A vulnerability from last season is very likely to linger into the following year.

Knowing the above, it makes a lot of sense to start your fantasy backs when they line up across from the “worst of the bad” from 2007 - Cleveland, Kansas City, Denver, Oakland or Miami - the jury is still out on the Jets’ status entering week 2. *The Jets did shut down Miami’s backs in week 1, but Miami is in extensive rebuilding mode, with an entirely new coaching staff and front office, and a significantly made-over offense (with a brand-new free agent QB in Chad Pennington) - we’ll see how “for real” the Jets are after their clash with the Patriots’ well-stocked stable of backs, in the Meadowlands on Sunday. In particular, we can see part of the reason why LaDainian Tomlinson is such a great fantasy back when we note that all of his AFC West opponents are among the worst rush defenses in the NFL (although they may be at the bottom of the statistical pile in part due to facing Tomlinson twice a year each year - which came first, the chicken or the egg?).

Hello, Monday! Finally, we are back to that time of year when we actually anticipate Mondays (well, at least Monday night - for Monday Night Football!).

 Tonight we’ll get a special treat from the NFL - 2 divisional rivalries, renewed first in the Hallowed Ground at Lambeau Field - and then we’ll watch along with all the crazed Raider fans in the Black Hole at McAfee Coliseum. Happy Times are Here Again!

For fantasy enthusiasts, there are several important story lines to follow in each matchup. In the 7 PM ET game, Minnesota at Green Bay, we’ll get to see:

• How well Aaron Rodgers plays in a full-speed, 60-minute NFL contest
• Whether Ryan Grants’ hamstring is a worrisome issue or not
• If Tarvaris Jackson has actually improved over last year
• If Bernard Berrian can bring respectability to the WR corps in Minnesota
• How scary Adrian Peterson looks in his sophomore season in the NFL

During the nightcap game in Oakland, we’ll start to find out:

• If JaMarcus Russell can make a silk purse out of the sow’s ear lineup of WRs in Oakland
• Whether Darren McFadden is a fantasy stud or a fantasy bust
• How the Raiders will parse out carries between Justin Fargas, McFadden and Michael Bush
• If Zach Miller is the “next” Antonio Gates
• If Jay Cutler can win a game without Brandon Marshall
• Who is the legitimate #2 WR on Denver’s roster behind Marshall
• If Selvin Young can flourish as a featured back
• If Andre Hall will grind out TDs for his owners from goal line situations this season (or not)
• If Tony Scheffler is the “next” Antonio Gates

All the drafts are over, all the trash talk from draft day is in the books - after tonight, some of us will be 1-0 and on our way to a trophy, some will be 0-1 and on the way to a crying towel - and a few will limp across the finish line in week 1 with a tie.

Get ready to lay out the smack talk on Tuesday - will your team get what it needs Monday night, or will you watch your rival blow past your guys at the last minute? It’s must see T.V., fantasy fanatics! Enjoy!

An interesting discussion is taking place in our Shark Pool regarding the role Andre Hall will play in the Denver backfield rotation. The conversation started when forum member Deuce’s Wild linked to a comment by KFFL that speculated Andre Hall might see “12 to 15 touches including goal line touches” despite Selvin Young being the nominal “starter.”

The conversation went in a lot of directions but the issue of one back “vulturing” the short yardage and goal line touches from the team’s primary back was brought up repeatedly.

While I don’t deny that Andre Hall has as much potential as any Denver back to make a fantasy impact, I cringe at how often fantasy owners throw out the idea of a goal line vulture. SO MANY fantasy owners justify the selection of a team’s backup or fullback with the idea that they could be finding a hidden source of cheap TD production.

Do goal line vultures exist? OF COURSE.

Are they common? NOT AT ALL. You can count on one hand the number of runners who get the preponderance of their team’s goal line carries but otherwise don’t play a major role in the offense. 

And more to the point, there is little evidence to suggest Mike Shanahan is a fan of giving one back goal line carries at the expense of his primary rusher.

Here is a list of all the Denver RBs that had at least one goal line carry (i.e., opponent’s 5-yard line and in) between 2002-2007:

• 2002 – Clinton Portis was the workhorse and got the majority of the goal line carries (15 of 23). Mike Anderson had about 1/3rd as many total carries and, not coincidentally, had 1/3 of the goal line carries that Portis did
• 2003 — This is the one year where it appears Shanahan wanted to use a goal line specialist. Anderson had 13 goal line carries despite having just 70 total rushing attempts, nearly the same number of GL carries that Clinton Portis had in a monst 1,593 yard season. The key to remember here is that Portis scored 14 TDs in 16 goal line rushes, while Anderson scored 2 TDs in 13 GL attempts.
• 2004 – The unexpected Reuben Droughns takes over the lead rushing duties and, what do you know, ends up with the majority (11 of 18) goal line carres.
• 2005 – Mike Anderson comes back into the mix and gets a whopping 25 goal line carries, among the most in the league over the last five years. Although he and Tatum Bell were in a committee, Anderson was the lead carrier and, not coincidentally, had the majority of GL carries (25 of 37).
• 2006 — An odd year, as Tatum Bell led the team with 233 carries but Mike Bell had 17 of the teams 23 GL carries. Bell wasn’t a specialist though, he had 157 rushes and it was a true committee situation.
• 2007 — The first thing that strikes me is Mike Shanahan and the Broncos didn’t have a capable short yardage option last year. But it’s hard to judge the results with such a small sample size. Travis Henry and Selvin Young had the majority of the team’s rushing attempts, and not coindicentally had 2/3rds of the team’s goal line attempts as a result.

The conclusion? Don’t simply buy into the notion of a backup RB being used to vulture goal line carries, even when its’ a team whose beat writers may be espousing that very issue. Mike Shanahan will try anything that works. But it’s pretty clear that Andre Hall is MUCH more likely to be the team’s main ball carrier, period, than he is to be someone who sees just a handful of touches each game but gets most of the Broncos TD opportunities. Shanny gives his main guy the chance to punch it in, more often than not.

OK fantasy fanatics, the time of year we’ve all been anxiously awaiting since the NFL draft is here - the first NFL game of the season kicks off tonight. Many fantasy-relevant questions will start to be answered tonight regarding the Giants and the Redskins - here’s a quick look at some of these pressing questions:

 1). Regarding the Giants’ pass attack, questions abound. Is Plaxico Burress back to 100%? Will Burress’ timing with Manning be thrown off by his extended absence during training camp? Who will emerge as the Giant’s #2 WR this year - Steve Smith, Domenik Hixon, Mario Manningham - or will Amani Toomer manage to put up one more solid season?  Can Kevin Boss step into the departed Jeremy Shockey’s role and keep the TE position respectable as a weapon in the passing attack?

2). Will the Giants’ defense be able to overcome the loss of Michael Strahan to retirement and the loss of their other starting DE in the Super Bowl, Osi Umenyiora, to a pre-season knee injury? Can their defensive team still rack up sacks (and fantasy points) or will Justin Tuck and Mathias Kiwanuka fall short of Strahan and Umenyiora’s standard?

 3) Regarding the Redskins’ passing attack - can Jason Campbell make the new offensive scheme work now that defenses will play their top DBs for 60 minutes each week, and the vanilla preseason defensive schemes are replaced by the “real deal” game plans? How productive will Santana Moss and Antwaan Randle El be in fantasy terms - and can Chris Cooley maintain his string of seasons with 700+ yards receiving and 6+ TDs receiving (now up to 3 years in a row)? Could Cooley surpass his usual level and challenge for Antonio-Gates-like numbers during 2008?

 4). Can the Redskin’s DL recover from their rash of injuries, and how well will “Dancing with the Stars” Jason Taylor perform (once his knee is back to 100%)? Can the Redskins’ DT produce enough big plays to outperform their consensus #19 ranking by the Footballguys.com panel of experts?

As you can see, there is a lot of reasons to watch the game tonight - of course, I’ll find good reasons to watch as many NFL games as humanly possible this year, and I bet that you will too!

Enjoy the season, friends!

Fantasy football can be about more than players and fantasy points. This weekend, I will fly to Kansas City to participate in the 19th annual Heartland Football League fantasy football draft. Over the last 2 decades, a lot has happened among the group of friends who first set up the HFL, back in the days of very limited Internet connectivity (when only a few “geeks” even knew what the Internet was!) and hand-scoring leagues using the USA Today sports page (the only newspaper we could get at that time which had complete box scores for every game each week).

There have been a total of 268 regular-season fantasy match-ups per franchise (if your team has been in the league all 19 years), and over 100,000 fantasy points scored.  The league’s scoring system, set up to model NFL scoring and produce fantasy points that are within the realm of possibility in the real NFL for any given match-up, has averaged 32.459685 fantasy points scored per team (per week). But those numbers don’t tell the whole tale, not by a long shot.

5 of the original 12 owners have been active in the league all 18 years (the 6th to have played in all 18 years of the league is taking a break starting with the coming draft in K.C.). Another owner has been with us since the second season (254 games). Another original owner returns to the league this year after taking 1 year off  - all told, 7 of the original 12 owners (8 if you count the “newbie” with “only” 254 games played) are still involved in the league to one extent or another and remain friends with their old college buddies. 17 owners have been a part of the league at one point or another during the past 19 years.

Well in excess of a dozen births have been heralded; many marriages celebrated and many funerals seen; promotions boasted of; new homes purchased; old homes sold; new cars envied (our league commissioner’s wife had a Porsche Cayenne delivered for her husband as a surprise gift, timed to arrive during the league’s live draft a few years back!); cars wrecked; sicknesses fretted over and recoveries noted; businesses started and businesses closed - in short, the game of life being played out. For the league owners, fantasy football has been a touchstone to return to, and provided a forum for us all to get away from our everyday lives for a while, or to seek advice about our everyday lives when needed.   

It isn’t just about the league trophy (although for some of us, winning isn’t the only thing, it is everything - there is a fever pitch of competition that the HFL brings to the fore, without question) - it has become, simply, MORE.

So if you are new to the hobby of fantasy football, and are thinking about setting up a league with some of your buddies, I’d encourage you to do it! 20 years from now, you just might be glad you took the plunge.

I know I am.

With fantasy draft season heating up, the staff at Footballguys.com is in overdrive covering all sorts of strategies for dominating your fantasy league. Over the past 10 days, a bevy of quality strategy articles on the QB position have been posted for our subscribers’ consideration - I thought it would be worth while to highlight these offerings and provide a quick capsule describing each article.

First of all, there is a faceoff between Jeff Pasquino and me, Mark Wimer, debating the merits of expending an early draft pick on a QB and also the merits of the alternative  - employing a quarterback by committee composed of mid- to late-round picks.

 Clayton Gray employed his strength of schedule expertise to craft two articles looking at the best combinations of 2 QBs and 3 QBs in a committee, projecting the point totals for every combination worth considering at this season.

Chase Stuart takes a close look at some specific combinations of QBs that he recommends for those looking to draft a committee in start-1 QB and start-2 QBs leagues.

For those who are looking for a high-upside, low-draft-cost alternative at the QB position, Jeff Tefertiller has penned a look at how to identify sleepers at the QB position.  

Happy Drafting! It’s my favorite time of the year, and I bet it is yours, too!

The QB position in Chicago has been a horrid mess for many years, but the ridiculousness (ridiculousity? ridicule-deserving-idiocy?) seems to have reached new heights as of the 2008 training camp. After 23 days of training camp (with one to go), OC Ron Turner had this to say yesterday of his assessment about who leads the contest between Rex Grossman and Kyle Orton:

”I really don’t,” offensive coordinator Ron Turner said when asked if he has a sense of who’s ahead.

Maybe Turner should have just said “I really don’t have a clue” and left it at that. How is it possible that the Bears’ offensive coaches could watch 3 weeks worth of practice sessions and still NOT make a determination who will lead the offense? If both players in question are so pathetic, why haven’t the Bears taken steps to bring in a third contender?

It really defies explanation, in my opinion. However, taking a look at the behavior of this organization over the last 20 years (using the Footballguys.com Data Dominator ) tells us that this current situation is really just par for the course up in Chicago. Guess how many times QBs have been swapped in and out of the Bears’ lineup over the past 20 years (1988-2007)? 30? 40? Nope.

During the past 20 years, the Bears have switched/substituted one QB for another 58 times. An average of ~3 different QBs under center each year for the past 20 years! And we’re not talking about a few snaps for the backup in mop-up duty here and there, folks. During the current decade, 24 switches at QB been made by the Bears, with only 3 QBs playing close to a full slate of games in any given year (Jim Miller played in 15 games back in 2001; Orton managed 15 back in 2005; and Grossman  appeared in a full slate of 16 games during the 2006 Super Bowl season). Of all the pass attempts thrown during this decade (4078), Grossman has tossed 900 in his time on the field during regular season (~22%); while Orton has lobbed 447 (~11%).

For comparison’s sake, during the same time span the Colts have sent in their backup QBs for snaps during 6 seasons, for a total of 186 pass attempts (out of 4436 passes attempted by Indianapolis, ~96% of them thrown by Peyton Manning).  

No wonder Muhsin Muhammad recently told SI’s Peter King “That’s right. It’s where receivers go to die.”

As a new article about the glacial pace of negotiations between Steven Jackson and the Rams points out today, Jackson’s tab for his 20-day holdout now stands at $303,320.00 and counting (20 x $15,166.00 per day). However, the cost of his holdout isn’t limited to his wallet. Two-a-days ended on Tuesday, and there will be only about 12 more practices between Thursday the 14th and the season opener at Philadelphia.

In other words, time is growing very short for Jackson to get into synch with his team mates. Another concern is related to “football shape” - the peak of conditioning that players acquire when they participate in a full training camp isn’t generated through individual workouts, according to many experienced voices from around the NFL. As former Rams’ coach Dick Vermeil puts it:

“Oh yeah, it’ll take him a few weeks. I don’t know what they’ll do. But I would bet they’ll temper his play early, and he won’t be a 30-carry guy on opening day — if he’s back by then…

“Carl Peterson did a study for the Kansas City Chiefs,” Vermeil said. “He’s one of the most experienced presidents-general managers in the National Football League. He’s been there since 1989, and he’s done studies as to holdouts. Not only in Kansas City, but all through the league. He says there’s a much higher correlation or a chance of getting injured after holding out, regardless of position.”

Current head coach Scott Linehan doesn’t agree with Vermeil on the possible consequences of Jackson’s holdout, stating:

“We had a lot of injuries last year and we had everybody in camp. A lot of that’s (bad) luck in a lot of ways. I think as long as (Jackson’s) training and we do a good job of training him, getting him ready. …To be honest with you, that really isn’t a concern.”

The current head coach’s opinion about Jackson’s ability to handle a full work load is the one that counts the most, obviously. He’s the guy who’ll decide how often to call Jackson’s number.

However, if Jackson isn’t around to take the field, Linehan’s opinions about “football shape” won’t matter. Fantasy owners everywhere are wondering how much longer the holdout will last - unfortunately, there doesn’t appear to be a deal in sight as of Wednesday. We’ll see if the end of two-a-days thaws Jackson to the idea of coming into camp and getting his deal finalized…Stay tuned.

Evidently, practicing against Brett Favre is stretching the Jets’ defensive backs (and wide receivers) in many new ways.

“Naturally, it’s a whole new world for the wide receivers, but it also has created an added strain for the defensive backs - and that’s a good thing in training camp. It should help them in the early part of the season, when they face strong-armed passers Tom Brady and Carson Palmer.

“He has the innate ability to look one way and still know how to go the other way and get the ball there in time,” safety Kerry Rhodes said of Favre. “A lot of quarterbacks can’t go from this side to that side, and still fit the ball in. He’s one of the guys that can. He keeps you honest. You can’t really cheat.”…

“It comes real, real, real fast,” Rhodes said. “It seems like 100 mph.”

Said wide receiver Jerricho Cotchery: “Every route on the field is available.”

Given the modest expectations that almost everyone has for the Jets’ defense (they are currently 21st on the FBG’s consensus rankings of defense/special teams), the elevated level of practices with Favre in the fold could lead the Jets to outperform their modest expectations/draft slot - the Jets are being selected after 20 (minimum) other D/ST are off the board. If you are approaching the draft with a plan of rotating a slate of defenses during 2008, the Jets could be a team worth considering as part of a 3-team platoon at the position.

An excellent take on the idea of utilizing a defensive team by committee is offered by Footballguys’ own Chase Stuart, whose perennial subscribers’-favorite article ”Defensive Team by Committee” was released today, August 12th. I commend it to your attention before heading into your fantasy draft this season.  

5 Preseason games went into the history books last night, with various NFL hopefuls strutting their stuff in an attempt to earn playing time during regular season.

Some of these players posted impressive numbers - for example, last year’s disappointment in New Orleans, Robert Meachem, helped the Saints best the Cardinals 24-10. Meachem grabbed 4/129/1 during the game, including a 60-yard scoring strike from Tyler Palko at 10:36 in the 4th quarter. The former 1st round draft pick showed us why the Saints invested a high selection in him during the 2007 draft.

However, it is important to remember why Meachem is racking up such big numbers in the first preseason game. Marques Colston and Devery Henderson were both sidelined for this contest due to injury, and #2 WR David Patten only saw the field for a handful of plays before sitting out the rest of the contest. Drew Brees tossed a mere 6/7 for 40 yards and a TD before grabbing a seat on the bench.

The rest of the game (during which Meachem posted the lion’s share of his impressive statistics) was all about evaluating 2nd, 3rd and 4th-string players to determine who advances deeper into preseason training camp and who gets cut in the first round of roster trimming.

Meachem blew up for big numbers - he should  rack up big numbers given he has a first-round draft selection’s talent - playing against defenders who have a marginal shot at sticking with the Cardinals. While it was a good showing by Meachem (who is expected by many observers to be the #3 WR for the Saints when the season opens), don’t get over-excited and leapfrog him up your draft board - at least, not yet.

Playing well in a preseason week 1 game won’t hurt any given player’s 2008 outlook, but it is very far from a “preview” of what any particular guy is likely to do once the games count. About the only thing we can say for Meachem (or any of the other standouts from yesterday’s contests) as of today is “So far, so good“. That isn’t nothing, but it doesn’t mean a whole lot just yet, either.   

With the news that Brett Favre has been traded to the New York Jets, the Footballguys.com message board is lit up like a Christmas tree with lots of speculation on the outcome of the move. One thread on the Footballguys.com message board is polling opinions asking how much improvement will the Jets show with Favre on the team?

Posters are speculating on Favre’s year-end ranking among all fantasy QBs in another thread, and in another analysis is ongoing about how Favre’s presence impacts the New York Jets’ defensive performance. Other discussions are ongoing about the impact of Favre’s presence on RB Thomas Jones’ performance/ranking.

 Also, as the news about Favre’s move has percolated through the Footballguys.com QB rankings, many QB ranking boards have been revised as of today to reflect Favre’s presence in New York. Check out the constantly-updated expert rankings HERE!

 The NFL preseason is rushing along like Adrian Peterson with a head of steam up, and now is the time to get in the discussion! Check out all the NFL talk and Favre chatter in the Footballguys.com fantasy football message board community, The Shark Pool!

Antonio Gates’ surgically repaired big toe (the operation to repair his torn plantar plate was performed in late February) hasn’t come along as quickly as anybody would like. The latest news is that Gates is only 65-70% healed as of July 23rd, and he is just now beginning some simple running drills to test his foot.

In other words, Gates isn’t going to be ready for training camp practices, and his availability for the start of regular season is in serious doubt. As Gates tells it: “Obviously, it’s a process. I’m a lot better than I felt a month ago. I can say that. I have no determinant on when and how fast I’ll be coming back. But right now, I feel good. It’s a little sore, but it’s tolerable.”

At this point, Gates has plummeted down my draft board to #9 at his position to represent my best guess that Gates will miss most or all of September as he continues to work back into football shape. I simply do not believe that he will be ready for full speed football at the start of regular season, although the team may field him occassionally as a decoy while he gets back into condition. I’ve slashed approximately 25% off his projections for 2008, down to 60/750/6 receiving, as a result of my analysis of his injury woes.

The Chargers do have some good injury news on the eve of training camp - QB Philip Rivers has come back from his torn ACL in fine form and the knee is not an issue for him at all. “I’ve been going full-go now for over a month,” Rivers said in late July. “There’s nothing I can’t do. There are times throughout the day I can’t tell which knee I hurt.”

For Rivers, the glass is half full. He’s healthy, but his top receiver over the last 4 years, Gates, isn’t ready to roll. We’ll see who benefits from the passes that would have flowed to Gates - backup Scott Chandler has been working as the substitute pass-catching TE in practices during the spring while Gates nursed his foot.

According to the Arizona Republic’s Kent Somers, WR Anquan Boldin and team mate Darnell Dockett will report to training camp on time despite indications otherwise earlier this spring.

“Anquan is not the type of guy to hold out,” said Drew Rosenhaus, who represents both players. “He’s a very principled guy. It’s just not in his makeup.”

Given the current situation at QB, with Matt Leinart working back up to speed after missing most of last season, the news that Boldin plans to participate in a full slate of practices/team meetings bodes well for his 2008 prospects. The Cardinals hope that Leinart is ready for a “breakout” season in his 3rd season in the league, and he appears focused on making his mark in the NFL this year. In late June, Leinart stated: . “It is time for me to step up and really time for me to go out there and play. I have to prove myself.”

Leinart’s time is now - if he is ready to join the club of elite NFL QBs this year, Boldin and company could surpass even the current high expectations that many have for the Cardinals’ WR stable. Boldin has enhanced his status as a premier fantasy talent with his decision to report to training camp with his team mates.

Jeremy Shockey got his wish today, leaving the Giants’ organization that angered him during the Super Bowl by not allowing him on the sidelines. Whatever his fans or detractors think of how the situation shook out, there are several obvious (and a couple not-so-obvious) fantasy implications regarding this move.

First of all, Eric Johnson’s prospects in New Orleans just took a massive hit. He should plummet down (and probably off) your TE board. At the same time, Kevin Boss is looking like a possible top-10 candidate among fantasy TEs, given the new depth chart in New York (none of the guys behind Boss - Michael Matthews, Jerome Collins, Darcy Johnson, Eric Butler - are household names - Matthews caught 6 balls last season).

Boss was reasonably productive during the playoff push last year after Jeremy Shockey was out of the picture - and that will be the case from the get-go this year in the wake of Shockey’s trade to New Orleans. However, Boss only snagged 1 catch per game during the final 3 playoff games, so it remains to be seen how heavily the team will involve him in the passing game. Boss was reported to have added 20 pounds to his playing weight over the winter (up to 272) - we’ll see where he’s as training camp progresses, now that the pass-catching role is his to lose. Stay tuned to find out how the Giants utilize Boss in Shockey’s absence.

Regarding Shockey, the unknown quantity will be how he meshes with Drew Brees and company down in New Orleans - in their high-octane offense, he certainly is a candidate for reaching elite status among fantasy TEs. However, he’ll have to work hard and, more importantly, show good “coachability” as he gets fast-tracked into the Saints’ offense. It is an understatement to say that working well with others hasn’t been Shockey’s strong suit during his years in New York - we’ll see if his new destination brings out the best (or worst) in Shockey’s game.

Finally, many observers (including this one) believe that Eli Manning’s strong showing during the closing weeks of 2007 and during the playoffs was partly due to the elimination of the distractions caused by and the pressures/demands imposed by Shockey on Manning. Always wanting the ball is usually a good quality in a pro athlete, but in the case of the Giants’ offense, the subtraction of Shockey seemed to add to Manning’s prowess/confidence. He made better decisions with the ball and didn’t feel pressured to “force” throws into Boss’s arms. With the permanent elimination of Shockey from Manning’s offense, we may see Eli Manning continue to progress as a top-flight pro QB (especially in terms of his ability to utilize all the weapons at his disposal as opportunities present themselves).

Brian Westbrook is apparently unhappy with his contract situation - unhappy enough to fire his current agent and switch to a new agency, according to the Delaware News Journal . As part of his agitation for a new contract, Westbrook is said to be considering a training camp holdout.

While this is a developing situation - we won’t know if Westbrook will follow through with his threat until next Thursday, when veterans are scheduled to report to the Eagles’ training camp - it is definitely worth keeping an eye on. The Eagles are known as some of the toughest customers in the NFL when it comes to contract renegotiations, and team president Joe Banner went on record about the matter back in February, stating “I would suggest one or two years into a five-year contract doesn’t make any sense…You start to get into the third or fourth year, and you have to look at situation by situation.”. Meanwhile, Westbrook’s position is that he has significantly out-produced his old deal in the last 2 years (which is quite evident in the numbers he’s posted since the deal was signed).

We’ll see how both sides react once Westbrook hires his new agents over the weekend and the two parties start (or re-start) talks - right now, there is time for an accomodation to be arrived at, although time is short.

Stay tuned…

It appears that the Jaguars are fed up with Matt Jones. Pro Football Weekly reports “In the words of one team source we talked to, it would be “shocking” to see him in a Jags uniform in 2008.”

The exit of Jones will give Mike Walker and Troy Williamson some breathing room at the end of the Jacksonville bench - Walker has been showing no ill effects from last year’s knee injury during OTAs, and several Footballguys think he is a “sleeper” candidate for a surprising season this year.

Walker is now on my short list of “flyer” picks for the final rounds of my 2008 fantasy drafts. He should be available on the cheap, and he has a lot of upside potential with a dubious #1 WR, Jerry Porter, tottering atop the depth chart, followed by Reggie Williams and Dennis Northcutt - if Walker continues to impress in training camp, he could end up in the starting lineup sooner rather than later.

Kevin Faulk has pled “no contest” to misdemeanor charges of possession of marijuana, due to a February 22nd incident at a Lil’ Wayne rap concert in Louisiana. Evidently, Faulk possessed 4 marijuana “cigars” when he was cited for the crime.

There is no word yet on any possible team or league sanctions related to the substance abuse conviction - but now that the legal system has run its course we may see action on one or both fronts.

Fantasy owners will want to stay tuned to the fallout from this event as Faulk’s production this year would drop if he receives a lengthy suspension. If Faulk were to be out of the picture for a chunk of time, TE Ben Watson would probably receive more pass targets in the short passing game, while Laurence Maroney could see an increase in his workload as primary ball carrier. The offensive mix in New England would definitely look different with Faulk off the field.

The biggest difference between fantasy football and real football is that your team can consist of a bunch of losers and yet still blow the doors off your opponent. Sounds controversial? Not when you realize that I mean it literally. At the end of the day, we fantasy owners don’t really care whether the team’s our players suit up for get the WIN on Sunday, as long as our individual players rack up the stats. Sure, there is often a correlation between winning the game and putting up big offensive numbers, but it’s not always the case.

So just to get us back in the mindset of talking fantasy football, let’s take a moment to honor the best “losers” in fantasy football over the last 10 years.

Table 1: Best individual fantasy performances by a RB in a losing effort (1998-2007)

The first thing that should jump out at you from this list is that talent trumps winning or losing. Some of the best RBs in the last decade appear multiple times on this list. The next thing I couldn’t help but notice is that Kansas City represents 30% (6 out of 20) of the list; which tells us two things we already knew…1) The Chiefs haven’t been a very good team over the last decade and 2) They’ve had excellent runners in spite of that.

Does this have any deep meaning for your fantasy draft preparation? No, it’s just a fun and quick use of our newest stat engine: The Game Log Dominator.

Next we’ll take a look at the best “Loser” WR performances.