OK fantasy fanatics, the time of year we’ve all been anxiously awaiting since the NFL draft is here - the first NFL game of the season kicks off tonight. Many fantasy-relevant questions will start to be answered tonight regarding the Giants and the Redskins - here’s a quick look at some of these pressing questions:

 1). Regarding the Giants’ pass attack, questions abound. Is Plaxico Burress back to 100%? Will Burress’ timing with Manning be thrown off by his extended absence during training camp? Who will emerge as the Giant’s #2 WR this year - Steve Smith, Domenik Hixon, Mario Manningham - or will Amani Toomer manage to put up one more solid season?  Can Kevin Boss step into the departed Jeremy Shockey’s role and keep the TE position respectable as a weapon in the passing attack?

2). Will the Giants’ defense be able to overcome the loss of Michael Strahan to retirement and the loss of their other starting DE in the Super Bowl, Osi Umenyiora, to a pre-season knee injury? Can their defensive team still rack up sacks (and fantasy points) or will Justin Tuck and Mathias Kiwanuka fall short of Strahan and Umenyiora’s standard?

 3) Regarding the Redskins’ passing attack - can Jason Campbell make the new offensive scheme work now that defenses will play their top DBs for 60 minutes each week, and the vanilla preseason defensive schemes are replaced by the “real deal” game plans? How productive will Santana Moss and Antwaan Randle El be in fantasy terms - and can Chris Cooley maintain his string of seasons with 700+ yards receiving and 6+ TDs receiving (now up to 3 years in a row)? Could Cooley surpass his usual level and challenge for Antonio-Gates-like numbers during 2008?

 4). Can the Redskin’s DL recover from their rash of injuries, and how well will “Dancing with the Stars” Jason Taylor perform (once his knee is back to 100%)? Can the Redskins’ DT produce enough big plays to outperform their consensus #19 ranking by the Footballguys.com panel of experts?

As you can see, there is a lot of reasons to watch the game tonight - of course, I’ll find good reasons to watch as many NFL games as humanly possible this year, and I bet that you will too!

Enjoy the season, friends!

Jeremy Shockey has been traded to the New Orleans Saints, ending months of speculation. About six weeks ago I wrote an analysis on Eli Manning in our Player Spotlight feature. At the time, the Jeremy Shockey situation was in flux and I warned Giants fans to be careful what they wish for:

The Jeremy Shockey Factor. Rumors persist that Jeremy Shockey is going to be traded to the New Orleans Saints. Is it possible that trading away a 4-time Pro Bowler can be a positive development? The argument for moving Shockey is that New York won a Super Bowl without him and, in his absence, Eli Manning was more productive. The drama that surrounds Shockey is distracting and divisive; and GM Jerry Reese and HC Tom Coughlin have the goodwill to shed themselves of the headache. The argument against trading Shockey is that he’s not easily replaced. In spite of his personality quirks, Shockey has been a MAJOR portion of Eli Manning’s success. Over the last three seasons, Shockey has accounted for:

• 20.2% of the team’s receptions (188)
• 20.6% of the team’s receiving yards (2,133)
• 23.9% of the team’s receiving TDs (17)

No disrespect to Kevin Boss, but he’s not going to replicate that kind of productivity. The Giants are going to have to reshape their offense if the Shockey trade happens; and that’s unlikely to lead to better passing numbers over a full 16-game season.

Apologies to my colleague Mark Wimer, but he isn’t seeing the forest for the trees here. We, as football fans, tend to put way too much credence on a small subset of playoff games and not enough weight on a player’s entire body of work. Eli Manning has been VERY CONSISTENT over his three full seasons under center, so much so that his playoff run last year very likely equals the anomaly not the new rule. 

I would ask anyone to show me a QB that loses 20% of their passing productivity and IMPROVES the following year. Manning was already no better than a fringe fantasy starter and now, even if you assume other players pick up most of the slack, it’s hard to see Manning represent value at his current ADP.

Here’s a quick rundown of the fantasy implications from this trade:

• QB Drew Brees – Brees was already one of the “elite 4″ at his position, along with Tom Brady, Peyton Manning and Tony Romo. With the addition of Shockey, it makes Brees a safer bet because he could survive the loss of someone like Colston for a few weeks. Brees now becomes someone you can justify taking in the 2nd or 3rd round.
• QB Eli Manning — Manning just lost 20% of his yards and 24% of his TD passes. Even if you think Manning would’ve shown natural improvement this year, this trade almost assuredly offsets any natural gains. At his current ADP, it’s hard to get excited about Manning as a fantasy prospect, but there will be a number of owners in your league who disagree.
• TE Jeremy Shockey – Sean Payton used to coach Shockey and knows his talents. With an elite QB in Drew Brees, and a new lease on life, expect a bounce back season. Shockey need only stay healthy (meaning 14 or more games) to deliver another quality season. He’s an every week fantasy starter, but don’t go crazy and expect his numbers to skyrocket. The Saints have lots of other weapons, so Shockey will have to make due with some tough weeks while other players shine.
• TE Eric Johnson — Mark got this one right, Johnson goes from an intriguing fantasy backup and late round pick to someone that needs to stay on your waiver wire. He could conceivably be released and sign on with another team, but until that happens, he’s not worth paying attention to.
• TE Kevin Boss — Boss gets a chance to start and that could me a lot of targets. But understand that Boss isn’t the athlete or play-maker that Shockey is. As long as you set reasonable expectations, Boss now becomes worthy of a roster spot but purely as a long-shot backup and bye week fill in.
• WR Marques Colston — Colston makes his $$$ in the red zone, and Shockey does, too. Shockey’s addition makes Colston’s TD upside slightly less compelling, but ultimately not enough to dissuade us from drafting him at current ADP.
• WR Plaxico Burress – Burress was already a favorite target and that won’t change. If anything, this puts more pressure on Plax to deliver game in, game out. On the margin, Burress was already a top-12 fantasy prospect and remains so.

The good news is the Giants won a Super Bowl without Shockey and have probably been planning to go this year without him from the start. The team is going to have to alter its offensive philosophy a bit, and be open to using more 3-WR and 4-WR sets; in which case the team’s total productivity could look relatively similar. The Saints are already putting up such big passing numbers that it’s hard to imagine a substantive increase. Shockey likely takes away production from the Saints WR corps and, possibly, RB Reggie Bush.

Be sure to check out Footballguys.com for our updated rankings and projections. We should have the Shockey impact modeled when the next set of projections are released later in the week.

Jeremy Shockey got his wish today, leaving the Giants’ organization that angered him during the Super Bowl by not allowing him on the sidelines. Whatever his fans or detractors think of how the situation shook out, there are several obvious (and a couple not-so-obvious) fantasy implications regarding this move.

First of all, Eric Johnson’s prospects in New Orleans just took a massive hit. He should plummet down (and probably off) your TE board. At the same time, Kevin Boss is looking like a possible top-10 candidate among fantasy TEs, given the new depth chart in New York (none of the guys behind Boss - Michael Matthews, Jerome Collins, Darcy Johnson, Eric Butler - are household names - Matthews caught 6 balls last season).

Boss was reasonably productive during the playoff push last year after Jeremy Shockey was out of the picture - and that will be the case from the get-go this year in the wake of Shockey’s trade to New Orleans. However, Boss only snagged 1 catch per game during the final 3 playoff games, so it remains to be seen how heavily the team will involve him in the passing game. Boss was reported to have added 20 pounds to his playing weight over the winter (up to 272) - we’ll see where he’s as training camp progresses, now that the pass-catching role is his to lose. Stay tuned to find out how the Giants utilize Boss in Shockey’s absence.

Regarding Shockey, the unknown quantity will be how he meshes with Drew Brees and company down in New Orleans - in their high-octane offense, he certainly is a candidate for reaching elite status among fantasy TEs. However, he’ll have to work hard and, more importantly, show good “coachability” as he gets fast-tracked into the Saints’ offense. It is an understatement to say that working well with others hasn’t been Shockey’s strong suit during his years in New York - we’ll see if his new destination brings out the best (or worst) in Shockey’s game.

Finally, many observers (including this one) believe that Eli Manning’s strong showing during the closing weeks of 2007 and during the playoffs was partly due to the elimination of the distractions caused by and the pressures/demands imposed by Shockey on Manning. Always wanting the ball is usually a good quality in a pro athlete, but in the case of the Giants’ offense, the subtraction of Shockey seemed to add to Manning’s prowess/confidence. He made better decisions with the ball and didn’t feel pressured to “force” throws into Boss’s arms. With the permanent elimination of Shockey from Manning’s offense, we may see Eli Manning continue to progress as a top-flight pro QB (especially in terms of his ability to utilize all the weapons at his disposal as opportunities present themselves).

Lots of chatter this offseason about Jeremy Shockey and what many thought to be an inevitable parting of ways with the New York Giants. After sitting out the Giants improbable Super Bowl run, Shockey pouted and failed to appear at the post-SB events including a visit to the White House. There were reports that the Giants were pursuing deals for him prior to and during the April NFL draft, but still nothing came. Then a much ballyhooed altercation between Shockey and GM Jerry Reese appeared to put the final nail in the coffin.

But today Giants beat reporter, Vinny DiTrani, took a moment from his vacation to say that Giants have officially stopped pursuing a trade of the enigmatic TE:

This flies in the face of everything that has happened in recent weeks, including that Shockey-Reese shouting match that was witnessed by several players.

But a source that has been accurate much of the time says the Giants have given up efforts to try to trade the tight end, and that Shockey will stay put.

Like I said that’s hard to believe. But perhaps Reese could not get back in return what he wanted for Shockey. The rumor had been a very complicated multi-team deal was in the works, one which relied on a lot of things falling into place. One of the things that wasn’t, however, was Shockey’s ankle, and his inability to pass a team physical.

At any rate, maybe No. 80 will be in Albany after all.

I know lots of Giants fans don’t want to hear this, but they better rejoice over this news. A Giants team without Jeremy Shockey for a full 16-game season was going to be a Giants team that struggled offensively. In spite of his personality quirks, Shockey has been a MAJOR portion of Eli Manning’s success.

Over the last three seasons, Shockey has accounted for:

• 20.2% of the team’s receptions (188)
• 20.6% of the team’s receiving yards (2,133)
• 23.9% of the team’s receiving TDs (17)

No disrespect to Kevin Boss, but he was not going to replicate that kind of productivity. Now the story isn’t over. Shockey could threaten to hold out and/or come up lame with a lesser injury. But NFL players have a tendency to let their competitive spirit overwhelm them once the games count (see: Chad Johnson) and I’m betting Shockey suits up, and plays well. At his current ADP (TE9, 94th overall pick), Shockey represents great value.