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August 16, 2008

Long, Gholston and Harvey: How many sacks to expect?

Filed under: New York Jets, Defense, DST, NYJ, STL, St. Louis, JAX, Jacksonville, Rookie, DE, Rams, Jaguars, Footballguys, IDP, FBG, NFL, Jets — Chase Stuart @ 5:18 pm

Three pass rushers were drafted in the top ten this year — Chris Long (St. Louis), Vernon Gholston (NYJ), and Derrick Harvey (Jacksonville). From 1996 to 2007, twenty-two outside linebackers or defensive ends were selected in the top ten of the draft. Over that span we’ve seen incredible performances by some pass rushers (Simeon Rice, Terrell Suggs, Julius Peppers) and we’ve seen some big time busts (Cedric Jones, Jamal Reynolds, Jamal Anderson). But what happens on average?

Year	Player		Pos	Team	Pick	Games	 Sacks
2007	Jamaal Anderson	DE	atl	 8	16	 0.0
2007	Gaines Adams	DE	tam	 4	16	 6.0
2006	Ernie Sims	LB	det	 9	16	 0.5
2006	A.J. Hawk	LB	gnb	 5	16	 3.5
2006	Mario Williams	DE	htx	 1	16	 4.5
2003	Terrell Suggs	LB	rav	10	16	12.0
2002	Julius Peppers	DE	car	 2	12	12.0
2001	Justin Smith	DE	cin	 4	15	 8.5
2001	Jamal Reynolds	DE	gnb	10	 6	 2.0
2001	Richard Seymour	DE	nwe	 6	13	 3.0
2001	Andre Carter	DE	sfo	 7	15	 6.5
2000	LaVar Arrington	LB	was	 2	16	 4.0
2000	Courtney Brown	DE	cle	 1	16	 4.5
1999	Chris Claiborne	LB	det	 9	15	 1.5
1998	Andre Wadsworth	DE	crd	 3	16	 5.0
1998	Greg Ellis	DE	dal	 8	16	 3.0
1998	Grant Wistrom	DE	ram	 6	13	 3.0
1997	Peter Boulware	LB	rav	 4	16	11.5
1997	James Farrior	LB	nyj	 8	16	 1.5
1996	Kevin Hardy	LB	jax	 2	16	 5.5
1996	Simeon Rice	DE	crd	 3	16	12.5
1996	Cedric Jones	DE	nyg	 5	16	 0.0
						15	 5.0

Averaging out the projections of Footballguys.com IDP experts Aaron Rudnicki and John Norton, and Long is projected to have seven sacks, Gholston 4.5 sacks, and Harvey four sacks. That averages out to just a hair over 5 sacks per top ten rookie pass rusher, right in line with historical norms.

July 20, 2008

Dancing with the Skins: Jason Taylor traded to Washington

It’s hard to believe that it took the loss of Philip Daniels to season-ending knee surgery to get the always active Daniel Snyder to trade for sack master Jason Taylor. But shortly after Daniels was lost for the season in 7-on-7 drills in practice, the team put together a package (2nd and 6th round draft picks) to acquire the 33-year old defensive end from the Miami Dolphins.

It’s no secret that Taylor has been on the market since the day Bill Parcells took over the franchise. While it’s unclear why Parcells and Taylor seemed ill at ease with one another, the fact remains a deal to move the 6-time Pro Bowler has been in the works for a long time.

Taylor, who chose to spend his offseason Dancing with the Stars instead of practicing with the fins joins a team that plays a 4-3 defensive front and is in desperate need of another defensive playmaker. While Taylor isn’t a spring chicken, he’s inarguably among the best conditioned athletes in the league and remains highly effective:

  • Taylor had 11 sacks last year
  • His 117 career sacks put him 14th all-time
  • He has six seasons of 10+ sacks, including the last three consecutively
  • Taylor hasn’t missed a game since 1999

What does this mean for fantasy owners?

Washington ranked 16th last year with 33 sacks. The addition of Taylor should push them into the top-10; which means more chances for the defensive secondary to make big plays on the ball, to boot. The Redskins are a team in flux this year with a new head Coach (Jim Zorn), offensive coordinator (Sherm Smith) and defensive coordinator (Greg Blache) but now have a weapon that might make them competitive in the toughest division in the NFC. The ability to generate big plays (sacks, INTs, defensive TDs) is the difference between being a fantasy afterthought or an every week starting option. The Skins MAY have just moved from the former to the latter.

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